Linking ground motion measurements and macroseismic observations in France: a case study based on accelerometric and macroseismic databases

Comparison between accelerometric and macroseismic observations is made for three M _w?=?4.5 earthquakes, which occurred in north-eastern France and south-western Germany in 2003 and 2004. Scalar and spectral instrumental parameters are processed from the accelerometric data recorded by nine accelerometric stations located between 29 and 180 km from the epicentres. Macroseismic data are based on French Internet reports. In addition to the single questionnaire intensity, analysis of the internal correlation between the encoded answers highlights four predominant fields of questions bearing different physical meanings: (1) “vibratory motions of small objects”, (2) “displacement and fall of objects”, (3) “acoustic noise” and (4) “personal feelings”. Best correlations between macroseismic and instrumental observations are obtained when the macroseismic parameters are averaged over 10-km-radius circles around each station. Macroseismic intensities predicted by published peak ground velocity (PGV)–intensity relationships agree with our observed intensities, contrary to those based on peak ground acceleration (PGA). Correlation between the macroseismic and instrumental data for intensities between II and V (EMS-98) is better for PGV than for PGA. Correlation with the response spectra exhibits clear frequency dependence for all macroseismic parameters. Horizontal and vertical components are significantly correlated with the macroseismic parameters between 1 and 10 Hz, a range corresponding to both natural frequencies of most buildings and high energy content in the seismic ground motion. Between 10 and 25 Hz, a clear lack of correlation between macroseismic and instrumental observations exists. It could be due to a combination of the decrease in the energy signal above 10 Hz, a high level of anthropogenic noise and an increase in variability in soil conditions. Above 25 Hz, the correlation coefficients between the acceleration response spectra and the macroseismic parameters are close to the PGA correlation level.     

Historical intermediate-depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean Sea Benioff zone: modeling their anomalous macroseismic patterns with stochastic ground-motion simulations

We model the macroseismic damage distribution of four important intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea subduction zone, namely the destructive 1926 M?=?7.7 Rhodes and 1935 M?=?6.9 Crete earthquakes, the unique 1956 M?=?6.9 Amorgos aftershock (recently proposed to be triggered by a shallow event), and the more recent 2002 M?=?5.9 Milos earthquake, which all exhibit spatially anomalous macroseismic patterns. Macroseismic data for these events are collected from published macroseismic databases and compared with the spatial distribution of seismic motions obtained from stochastic simulation, converted to macroseismic intensity (Modified Mercalli scale, I_MM). For this conversion, we present an updated correlation between macroseismic intensities and peak measures of seismic motions (PGA and PGV) for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea. Input model parameters for the simulations, such as fault dimensions, stress parameters, and attenuation parameters (e.g. back-arc/along anelastic attenuation) are adopted from previous work performed in the area. Site-effects on the observed seismic motions are approximated using generic transfer functions proposed for the broader Aegean Sea area on the basis of V_S30 values from topographic slope proxies. The results are in very good agreement with the observed anomalous damage patterns, for which the largest intensities are often observed at distances >?100 km from the earthquake epicenters. We also consider two additional “prediction” but realistic intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios, and model their macroseismic distributions, to assess their expected damage impact in the broader southern Aegean area. The results suggest that intermediate-depth events, especially north of central Crete, have a prominent effect on a wide area of the outer Hellenic arc, with a very important impact on modern urban centers along northern Crete coasts (e.g. city of Heraklion), in excellent agreement with the available historical information.     

Simple method for combined studies of macroseismic intensities and focal mechanisms

A simple method is presented for the computation of theoretical models of the macroseismic field, approximately valid close to the epicentre of a weak crustal earthquake. It is assumed that the intensity is logarithmically proportional to the energy flux of a complete directS wave. A circular source is used, whose energy-flux directivity is weak and thus simply predictable. The focal mechanism influences the solution through standard far-field double-couple radiation patterns. For the wave propagation in the layered crust the ray method is used, and a simple absorption correction is applied. Conversion coefficients at the earth's surface are included. To speed up repeated computations of the theoretical macroseismic fields for varying focal mechanisms, the ray quantities are computed (and stored) separately. This makes the program fast and simple enough even for routine applications on small microcomputers, whenever observed macroseismic fields, focal mechanisms, and hypocentre locations need joint interpretation.     

Seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in terms of macroseismic intensity using a site approach

We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in the framework of the EU project UPStrat-MAFA using the so-called site approach implemented in the SASHA computational code. This approach estimates seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by basically relying on local information about documented effects of past seismic events in the framework of a formally coherent and complete treatment of intensity data. In the case of Iceland, due to the lack of observed intensities for past earthquakes, local seismic histories were built using indirect macroseismic estimates deduced from epicentral information through an empirical attenuation relationship in probabilistic form. Seismic hazard was computed for four exceedance probabilities for an exposure time of 50 years, equivalent to average return periods of 50, 200, 475 and 975 years. For some localities, further return periods were examined and deaggregation analysis was performed. Results appear significantly different from previous seismic hazard maps, though just a semi-qualitative comparison is possible because of the different shaking measure considered (peak ground acceleration versus intensity), and the different computational methodology and input data used in these studies.     

Damage to residential buildings in Hveragerði during the 2008 Ölfus Earthquake: simulated and surveyed results

This study analyses the performance of residential buildings in the town of Hveragerði in South Iceland during the 29 May 2008 Mw 6.3 Ölfus Earthquake. The earthquake occurred very close to the town, approximately 3–4 km from it. Ground shaking caused by the earthquake was recorded by a dense strong-motion array in the town. The array provided high-quality three-component ground acceleration data which is used to quantify a hazard scenario. In addition, surveys conducted in the town in the aftermath of the earthquake have provided information on macroseismic intensity at various locations in the town. Detailed information regarding the building stock in the town is collected, and their seismic vulnerability models are created by using building damage data obtained from the June 2000 South Iceland earthquakes. Damage to buildings are then simulated by using the scenario hazard and vulnerability models. Damage estimates were also obtained by conducting a survey. Simulated damage based on the scenario macroseismic intensity is found to be similar to damage estimated from survey data. The buildings performed very well during the earthquake—damage suffered was only 5 % of the insured value on the average. Correlation between actual damage and recorded ground-motion parameters is found to be statistically insignificant. No significant correlation of damage was observed, even with macroseismic intensity. Whereas significant correlation was observed between peak ground velocity and macroseismic intensity, neither of them appear to be good indicators of damage to buildings in the study area. This lack of correlation is partly due to good seismic capacity of buildings and partly due to the ordinal nature of macroseismic intensity scale. Consistent with experience from many past earthquakes, the survey results indicate that seismic risk in South Iceland is not so much due to collapse of buildings but rather due to damage to non-structural components and building contents.     

On the occurrence and characteristics of intense low-altitude electric fields observed by Freja

High-resolution measurements by the double probe electric field instrument on the Freja satellite are presented. The observations show that extremely intense (up to 1 V m⁻¹) and fine-structured (<1 km) electric fields exist at auroral latitudes within the altitude regime explored by Freja (up to 1700 km). The intense field events typically occur within the early morning sector of the auroral oval (01-07 MLT) during times of geomagnetic activity. In contrast to the observations within the auroral acceleration region characterized by intense converging electric fields associated with electron precipitation, upward ion beams and upward field-aligned currents, the intense electric fields observed by Freja are often found to be diverging and located within regions of downward field-aligned currents outside the electron aurora. Moreover, the intense fields are observed in conjunction with precipitating and transversely energized ions of energies 0.5-1 keV and may play an important role in the ion heating. The observations suggest that the intense electric field events are associated with small-scale low-conductivity ionospheric regions void of auroral emissions such as east-west aligned dark filaments or vortex streets of black auroral curls located between or adjacent to auroral arcs within the morningside diffuse auroral region. We suggest that these intense fields also exist at ionospheric altitudes although no such observations have yet been made. This is possible since the height-integrated conductivity associated with the dark filaments may be as low as 0.1 S or less. In addition, Freja electric field data collected outside the auroral region are discussed with particular emphasis on subauroral electric fields which are observed within the 19–01 MLT sector between the equatorward edge of the auroral oval and the inner edge of the ring current.     

通过对调查数据的趋势和多变量分析确定宏观场

通过多变(相关分析)和趋势分析等统计方法对宏观调查数据进行了解释.这种方法使我们通过评定不同宏观效应叠加的程度、估计调查数据的不确定性更客观地评定烈度.通过滤波确定烈度场的区域分量,使我们消除观测中的局部变化.给出了选取适当滤波参数的准则.本文应用这一方法对发生在意大利的一次地震的调查数据进行了处理.     

The 23 April 1909 Benavente earthquake (Portugal): macroseismic field revision

The 23 April 1909 earthquake, with epicentre near Benavente (Portugal), was the largest crustal earthquake in the Iberian Peninsula during the twentieth century (M _w = 6.0). Due to its importance, several studies were developed soon after its occurrence, in Portugal and in Spain. A perusal of the different studies on the macroseismic field of this earthquake showed some discrepancies, in particular on the abnormal patterns of the isoseismal curves in Spain. Besides, a complete list of intensity data points for the event is unavailable at present. Seismic moment, focal mechanism and other earthquake parameters obtained from the instrumental records have been recently reviewed and recalculated. Revision of the macroseismic field of this earthquake poses a unique opportunity to study macroseismic propagation and local effects in central Iberian Peninsula. For this reasons, a search to collect new macroseismic data for this earthquake has been carried out, and a re-evaluation of the whole set has been performed and it is presented here. Special attention is paid to the observed low attenuation of the macroseismic effects, heterogeneous propagation and the distortion introduced by local amplifications. Results of this study indicate, in general, an overestimation of the intensity degrees previously assigned to this earthquake in Spain; also it illustrates how difficult it is to assign an intensity degree to a large town, where local effects play an important role, and confirms the low attenuation of seismic propagation inside the Iberian Peninsula from west and southwest to east and northeast.     

Seismic hazard assessment and design spectra for the Kozani-Grevena region (Greece) after the earthquake of May 13, 1995

The Kozani-Grevena (Greece) destructive earthquake occurred in a region of low seismicity. A considerable amount of strong-motion data was acquired from the permanent strong motion network of the Institute of Engineering Scismology and Earthquake Engineering (ITSAK) as well as from a temporary one installed after the earthquake. On the basis of this data set as well as on the observed macroseismic intensities, local attenuation relations for peak ground acceleration and velocity are proposed. A posteriori seismic hazard analysis is attempted for the affected and surrounding areas in terms of peak ground acceleration, velocity, bracketed duration and spectral acceleration. The analysis shows that the event of May 13, 1995 can be characterized as one with a mean return period of 500 to 1000 years. Relying on the observed spectral-acceleration amplification factors and the expected peak ground acceleration for mean return period of 500 years, region-specific elastic design spectra for the buildings of the Kozani and Grevena prefectures are proposed.     

Seismicity and seismic intensities in Jamaica,West Indies: A problem in risk assessment

A review of the history of earthquake observations in Jamaica is presented; there have been several high-intensity earthquakes in the last 300 years. The observed seismicity of the Jamaica region is discussed in the context of what is known of regional tectonics, and possible source regions of earthquakes are identified but a comparison between instrumentally determined seismicity and macroseismicity shows that the instrumental data are of insufficient quantity or quality to permit direct assessment of earthquake risk by conventional techniques. An alternative approach has been adopted; consideration of the macroseismic record suggests that the peak acceleration in rock with 90 per cent probability of not being exceeded in any 50-year period is of order 0.3 g but that there are very significant local variations caused by near-surface geology. Especially this applies to the capital, Kingston, and envelope response spectra are derived for shallow, intermediate and deep thickness of sediments under the city to demonstate the possibility that localized amplification may occur. A current apparent decline in the seismicity of the Jamaica region is noted but it is shown that the decline in the number of earthquakes of engineering interest is not yet statistically significant.     

The Main Features of the Local Geological Conditions Can Explain the Macroseismic Intensity Caused in Xiji-Langfu (Beijing) by the Ms = 7.7 Tangshan 1976 Earthquake

—The special geological conditions in the Xiji-Langfu area are the main reason for the anomalous high macroseismic intensity caused by the Tangshan, 1976 earthquake. The area is formed by deep deposits - mainly alluvium sands and clays poorly consolidated and with high water content - that have been trapped by the Xiadian fault. From simulated ground motion we have computed quantities commonly used for engineering purposes like the acceleration maximum amplitude (AMAX) and the total energy of ground motion (W), which is related to the Arias Intensity. The thick low velocity deposits are responsible for the large increment of the values of AMAX and W inside the basin. On the two sides of the Xiadian fault AMAX and W can vary by 200% and 700% respectively, and these variations are quite stable with varying thickness of the sedimentary deposit used in the models. With the existing relationships between acceleration (AMAX) and macroseismic intensity (I) our results can explain the large values of I observed in the Xiji-Langfu area, in connection with the Tangshan earthquake.     

Synthetic isoseismals of three earthquakes in California and Nevada

Recent tests on a series of earthquakes in California and Nevada suggest that in some regions the approximate shapes of the territories with equal earthquake-induced damage (expressed in terms of macroseismic intensity) could be synthetically traced out with a simple formula. This formula takes into account some gross features of the source: depth and length, unilateral or bilateral rupture, radiation patterns, rupture velocity, and directivity. Having been formulated on an empirical basis, the formula is however compatible with the so-called asymptotic approach, in which the far-field component of the Green's function is used. This paper presents the synthetic isoseismals of the earthquakes at Cedar Mountain, Nevada, 1932; Fairview Peak-Dixie Valley, Nevada, 1954; and Coalinga, California, 1983. An overall consistency, from acceptable to remarkable, between the observed intensity patterns and the synthetically back-predicted intensity has been obtained for them. Where the detailed modelling techniques available today are inapplicable, due to insufficient information on the features of the seismic sources, or to save time and money, the new formula may be utilizable for improving seismic hazard calculations.The formula was also used inversely for back-predicting geometric-kinematic parameters of the Coalinga 1983 earthquake from macroseismic maps. This gave characteristics for its source which are in good agreement with the majority of data inferred from modelling and from analyzing modern instrumental recordings. This striking result opens new perspectives in retrieving information on the source of ancient earthquakes for which only macroseismic information is available.     

Validation through HVSR measurements of a method for the quick detection of site amplification effects from intensity data: an application to a seismic area in Northern Italy

An instrumental validation is attempted of an innovative approach devoted to the quick individuation, from macroseismic data, of site amplification phenomena able to significantly modify seismic hazard levels expected on the basis of average propagation effects only. According to this methodology, two evaluations of hazard are performed at each investigated locality: the former, obtained by epicentral intensity data ‘reduced’ at the site through a probabilistic attenuation function and, the latter, computed by integrating such data with seismic effects actually observed at the site during past earthquakes. The comparison, for each locality, between these two hazard estimates allow to orientate the identification of those sites where local amplifications of earthquake ground motion could be significant. In order to check such methodology, indications obtained in this way from macroseismic data are compared with the estimates of transfer functions performed through the HVSR technique applied to microtremors. Results concerning municipalities located in a seismic area of Northern Italy indicate a good agreement between macroseismic and instrumental estimates.     

Stochastic ground motion simulation of the 12 October 1992 Dahshour earthquake

The stochastic method for finite faults is applied to simulate the ground motion of the 12 October 1992, m _b = 5.9, Dahshour earthquake. The method includes discritization of the fault plane into certain number of subfaults, and a ω-squared spectrum is assigned to each of them. Contributions from all subfaults are then empirically attenuated to the observation sites, where they are summed to produce the synthetic acceleration time-history. The method is first tested against its ability of reproducing the recording at Kottamya station. The calibrated model is then applied to calculate the synthetics at a large number of grid points covering the area around the fault plane. Simulated peak values are subsequently used to produce the synthetic peak horizontal acceleration map for the area. We compare the peak horizontal acceleration with the attenuation laws proposed for Egypt as well as the macroseismic intensity map of the 1992 Dahshour earthquake. The peak horizontal acceleration contours estimated using the calibrated model are mostly consistent with the observed intensity values and evidences of strong ground motions. Our results encourage the application of the approach as a supplementary tool for site-specific strong ground motion prediction.     

How does the U-shaped potential close above the acceleration region? A study using Polar data

We present a statistical study of Polar electric field observations using auroral oval passes over Scandinavia above the acceleration region. We are especially interested in seeing whether we can find large perpendicular electric fields associated with an upward extended classical U-shaped potential drop for these passes, during which Polar is in the northern hemisphere usually at about 4 R_E altitude. We also use Polar magnetic field data to infer the existence of a field-aligned current (FAC) and conjugate ground-based magnetometers (the IMAGE magnetometer network) to check whether the event is substorm-related or not. We find several events with a FAC but only weak perpendicular electric fields at Polar. In those rare cases where the Polar electric field was large, its direction was mostly found to be incompatible with the U-shaped potential model, or it was associated with disturbed conditions (substorms), where one cannot easily distinguish between inductive and static perpendicular electric fields. We found only two cases which are compatible with the upward extended U-shaped potential picture, and even in those cases the potential value is quite small (1–kV). To check the validity of the analysis method we also estimate the perpendicular electric field on the southern hemisphere, where Polar flies within or below the acceleration region, and we found a large number of inverted-V-type signatures as expected from previous studies. To explain the lack of perpendicular electric fields at high altitudes we suggest an O-shaped potential model instead of the U-shaped one.     

Computer estimation of intensities: The 1985 Berhida,Hungary, earthquake

In this paper a computerized method for the intensity estimation from macroseismic observations is presented. The successive steps of the MSK intensity scale (2° to 10°) receives weights according to the observations marked on the earthquake questionnaires. These weights are summed for the individual scale steps. The distribution of these summed weights and their relation to an experimentally chosen function of the criterion make it possible to estimate the appropriate intensity value and its reliability. By computer evaluation of earthquake reports an objective comparison of estimated intensities given by different seismologists can be made, provided that uniform earthquake questionnaires are used. The application of this method will result in more homogeneous intensity data.     

Macroseismic evidence and site effects for the Lunigiana (Italy) 1995 Earthquake

On October 10, 1995, an M_L= 4.8 (ING) earthquake occurred in the region of Lunigiana (northwestern Italy). The shock was felt over a large area and produced significant damage. We performed a macroseismic survey and damage zonation and assessed a maximum intensity VII MCS in the epicentral area. The damage pattern, that we investigated in detail for some of the villages in the most heavily damaged area, emphasises the role of surface geology in amplifying the effects. Topographic effects and near-surface geology are largely responsible for broadening the damage area. Given the moderate size of the earthquake, many of the macroseismic observations, including rotations of objects and the propagation of visible waves in the ground, are suggestive of amplification phenomena.     

Retrospective Prediction of Macroseismic Intensities Using Strong Ground Motion Simulation: The Case of the 1978 Thessaloniki (Greece) Earthquake (M6.5)

The densely populated city of Thessaloniki (Northern Greece) is situated in~the vicinity of active seismic faults, capable of producing moderate to strong earthquakes. The city has been severely affected by such events several times during the last 15 centuries. The most recent event occurred on 20 June 1978 (M6.5) in the Mygdonian graben, with an epicentral distance of about 30 km, causing extended damage in the city, with macroseismic intensities between MSK V+ and VIII+. The majority of buildings affected by the earthquake were of reinforced-concrete typology, typical to many southern European metropolitan areas. The source properties of the normal-faulting causative event and the source-to-city propagation path are well known from previous studies. The soil structure under the metropolitan area of Thessaloniki is assigned NEHRP categories B, C, D on the basis of geotechnical and geologic information and single-station ambient-noise measurements. A finite source model and various rupture scenarios of the June 1978 earthquake are used to perform forward stochastic modeling of strong ground motion in terms of peak ground and spectral acceleration. Rock motion is assessed under the city and it is transferred to the surface in accordance with the respective soil category. A GIS tool is employed to compare the estimated strong-motion parameters with the observed detailed damage pattern induced by the 1978 earthquake. For selected natural periods, a satisfactory correlation is established between macroseismic intensity and peak ground and spectral acceleration, thus encouraging the application of stochastic modeling for generating realistic ground-shaking scenarios in metropolitan areas.     

An ordered probit model for seismic intensity data

Seismic intensity, measured through the Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) scale, provides an assessment of ground shaking level deduced from building damages, any natural environment changes and from any observed effects or feelings. Generally, moving away from the earthquake epicentre, the effects are lower but intensities may vary in space, as there could be areas that amplify or reduce the shaking depending on the earthquake source geometry, geological features and local factors. Currently, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia analyzes, for each seismic event, intensity data collected through the online macroseismic questionnaire available at the web-page www.haisentitoilterremoto.it. Questionnaire responses are aggregated at the municipality level and analyzed to obtain an intensity defined on an ordinal categorical scale. The main aim of this work is to model macroseismic attenuation and obtain an intensity prediction equation which describes the decay of macroseismic intensity as a function of the magnitude and distance from the hypocentre. To do this we employ an ordered probit model, assuming that the intensity response variable is related through the link probit function to some predictors. Differently from what it is commonly done in the macroseismic literature, this approach takes properly into account the qualitative and ordinal nature of the macroseismic intensity as defined on the MCS scale. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we estimate the posterior probability of the intensity at each site. Moreover, by comparing observed and estimated intensities we are able to detect anomalous areas in terms of residuals. This kind of information can be useful for a better assessment of seismic risk and for promoting effective policies to reduce major damages.