我国近海热带气旋活动的气候特征及其与大尺度环境场的关系

利用1949~2004年共54 a的热带气旋资料,通过对历年影响我国近海(距海岸线300 n mile范围内)25°N以北及以南热带气旋的基本要素特征值的分析,发现我国近海25°N以北与以南热带气旋影响的频数和年代际变化不一致,尤其是20世纪80年代中期以来呈现反位相特征,近海25°N以北TC偏多,强度强;25°N以南TC偏少,强度弱.对热带气旋个数偏多年与偏少年对应的夏季海温场、高度场的合成分析,发现25°N以北偏多年比以南偏多年的东太平洋海温负距平强度大、范围广,高度距平场上反映出25°N以北偏多年西太平洋(包括南海)负高度距平区更为偏北、偏东;25°N以北TC偏少年时,中东太平洋海温为正距平区,高度场上太平洋低纬区域基本为正距平区,太平洋高纬区域是负距平区,而以南TC偏少年中东太平洋海温是负距平区,高度场上太平洋高纬区域是正距平区.文中还对当年前期各月海温场、高度场与当年以北、以南热带气旋个数分别作了相关分析,得出了一些实用有效的预报因子.     

南大洋气旋气候与变化特征

A new climatology of cyclones in the Southern Ocean is generated by applying an automated cyclone detection and tracking algorithm(developed by Hodges at the Reading University) for an improved and relatively highresolution European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis during 1979–2013.A validation shows that identified cyclone tracks are in good agreement with a available analyzed cyclone product.The climatological characteristics of the Southern Ocean cyclones are then analyzed,including track,number,density,intensity,deepening rate and explosive events.An analysis shows that the number of cyclones in the Southern Ocean has increased for 1979–2013,but only statistically significant in summer.Coincident with the circumpolar trough,a single high-density band of cyclones is observed in 55°–67°S,and cyclone density has generally increased in north of this band for 1979–2013,except summer.The intensity of up to 70% cyclones in the Southern Ocean is less than 980 h Pa,and only a few cyclones with pressure less than 920 h Pa are detected for1979–2013.Further analysis shows that a high frequency of explosive cyclones is located in the band of 45°–55°S,and the Atlantic Ocean sector has much higher frequent occurrence of the explosive cyclones than that in the Pacific Ocean sector.Additionally,the relationship between cyclone activities in the Southern Ocean and the Southern Annular Mode is discussed.     

Hurricane impact and recovery shoreline change analysis of the Chandeleur Islands,Louisiana, USA: 1855 to 2005

Results from historical (1855–2005) shoreline change analysis conducted along the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana demonstrate that tropical cyclone frequency dominates the long-term evolution of this barrier island chain. Island area decreased at a rate of −0.16 km²/year for the relatively quiescent time period up until 1996, when an increase in tropical cyclone frequency accelerated this island area reduction to a rate of −1.01 km²/year. More frequent hurricanes also affected shoreline retreat rates, which increased from −11.4 m/year between 1922 and 1996 to −41.9 m/year between 1982 and 2005. The erosional impact caused by the passage of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was unprecedented. Between 2004 and 2005, the shoreline of the northern islands retreated −201.5 m/year, compared with an average retreat rate of −38.4 m/year between 1922 and 2004. A linear regression analysis of shoreline change predicts that, as early as 2013, the backbarrier marsh that serves to stabilize the barrier island chain will be completely destroyed if storm frequency observed during the past decade persists. If storm frequency decreases to pre-1996 recurrence intervals, the backbarrier marsh is predicted to remain until 2037. Southern portions of the barrier island chain where backbarrier marsh is now absent behave as ephemeral islands that are destroyed after storm impacts and reemerge during extended periods of calm weather, a coastal behavior that will eventually characterize the entire island chain.     

Investigation of the fields of concentration of the suspension on the northwest shelf of the Black Sea in the case of roiling of the bottom sediments by a moving cyclone

The processes of roiling of the bottom sediments, diffusion transport of the suspension, and its repeated sedimentation on the northwest shelf of the Black Sea caused by a moving cyclone are studied by using a numerical sigma-coordinate model. It is supposed that bottom sediments are formed by particles of the same type. We determine the regions of the most intense rise of the suspension, directions of its transport by the flows of water, and the vertical profiles of concentration of suspended bottom sediments in different regions. In particular, it is shown that the distribution of suspended substances at a distance of 1 m from the bottom reflects the location of the active and inactive centers of erosion. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 1, pp. 3–20, January–February, 2007.     

Investigation of Transformations of the Local Regions of Pollution in the Northwest Part of the Black Sea Caused by the Motion of a Cyclone

By the method of mathematical simulation, we study the evolution of local discharges of pollutants on the northwest shelf of the Black Sea induced by the motion of a cyclone. We use the nonlinear equations of motion of a homogeneous viscous fluid in the hydrostatic approximation and the equation of turbulent diffusion. A cyclonic formation is represented by a moving axisymmetric area of low pressures. The discharges of pollutants are caused by the action of instantaneous sources located on the sea surface. We perform the analysis of dependences of the paths of motion of polluted regions, the periods of their dissipation, and the depths of penetration of pollutants on the bottom topography and the intensity of diffusion processes. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 17–27, November–December, 2005.     

Cyclicity of natural processes in the last 300 years imprinted in the Tree-Ring proxies in Subarctic European Russia revealed by wavelet analysis

We studied the cyclic structure of the earlywood ring width and maximum density of larch and spruce (International Tree-Ring Data Bank) at the northern treeline in European Russia. On the basis of correlation analyses, local chronologies are combined into seven regional ones. The chronologies of maximum density correlate positively with summer (May–August) temperature. The response functions for the earlywood ring width are chaotic. However, a wavelet analysis of instrumental cold-period (October–April) precipitation series and regional earlywood chronologies shows a similarity in their cyclic pattern. On the basis of a wavelet analysis, it was found that the chronologies of the western and northern regions of European Russia have a similar cyclic structure over the last 300 years, while the Ural chronologies differ from them in some respects. The long-term (40–100 years) variations dominate in the earlywood chronologies, whereas the chronologies of maximum density also contain short-term (5–20 years) variations. The 100- and 11-year cycles, which are probably modulated by solar activity, are detectable in all regional chronologies of earlywood width and maximum density. Cycles with periods of 40, 20–22, and 5 years in the tree-ring chronologies are most likely triggered by the North Atlantic Oscillation, which has a similar cyclic structure.     

The effect of the horizontal structure for symmetric tropical cyclones on their movement

In this paper, using Holland's method, the effect of the horizontal structure of tropical cyclones on their motion is investigated. The "characteristic radius", r0 characterized as the horizontal structure of a tropical cyclone,in which m and p are the parameters of the vortex, has been found by the author. And then it has been shown that there is but one "characteristic radius" for each cyclone with horizontal structure. Two direct analytic solutions for the uniform and non-uniform basic flows in steady situations are presented with rc Results show that the change in the horizontal structure of the tropical cyclone itself will have obvious effect on the cyclone motion, on both its direction and speed. Therefore it must be considered in the research on the tropical cyclone motion.     

Seasonal Variations and Transformations of Climatic Currents with Depth on the Basis of Assimilation of New Climatic Data on Temperature and Salinity in a Model of the Black Sea

The seasonal climatic circulation of the sea reconstructed on the basis of assimilation of new arrays of many-year average hydrological data in a model is analyzed. Five layers are discovered in the structure of climatic currents in the sea in depth: the surface Ekman layer (∼ 10 m), a layer with small vertical gradients of the kinetic energy (∼ 10–60 m), a layer with relatively high vertical gradients of the kinetic energy (∼ 60–150 m), a layer with gradual decrease in the kinetic energy and intensification (from 250–350 m) of the east cyclonic gyre and Batumi anticyclonic eddy (∼ 150–1000 m), and an abyssal layer characterized by an almost barotropic velocity (∼ 1000–2000 m). The specific features of the seasonal evolution of currents at these depths are investigated. It is shown that the key role in the formation of deep-water circulation of the sea is played by the south east flow, east cyclonic gyre, and Batumi anticyclonic eddy. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 28–45, November–December, 2005.     

北极气旋的季节、年际变化及其与北极海冰、大气遥相关的关系

The seasonal and inter-annual variations of Arctic cyclone are investigated. An automatic cyclone tracking algorithm developed by University of Reading was applied on the basis of European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ERA-interim mean sea level pressure field with 6 h interval for 34 a period. The maximum number of the Arctic cyclones is counted in winter, and the minimum is in spring not in summer.About 50% of Arctic cyclones in summer generated from south of 70°N, moving into the Arctic. The number of Arctic cyclones has large inter-annual and seasonal variabilities, but no significant linear trend is detected for the period 1979–2012. The spatial distribution and linear trends of the Arctic cyclones track density show that the cyclone activity extent is the widest in summer with significant increasing trend in CRU(central Russia)subregion, and the largest track density is in winter with decreasing trend in the same subregion. The linear regressions between the cyclone track density and large-scale indices for the same period and pre-period sea ice area indices show that Arctic cyclone activities are closely linked to large-scale atmospheric circulations, such as Arctic Oscillation(AO), North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and Pacific-North American Pattern(PNA). Moreover,the pre-period sea ice area is significantly associated with the cyclone activities in some regions.     

Regional structure of surface-air temperature fluctuations in northern Eurasia in the latter half of the 20th and early 21st centuries

The first empirical orthogonal functions (EOF1s) of surface-air temperature fluctuations for Russia and its neighboring states within the period 1950–2005 are analyzed. The spatial distribution of the EOF1, the first principal components (PC1s) of the observed air temperature (averaged over the summer, July, December–March, and individual winter months), and their time variations (including trend parameters, some spectral characteristics, and the quantitative indices of relation to circulation indices (on the basis of multiple step-by-step regression)) are considered. Significant seasonal differences have been revealed: the winter air-temperature fluctuations are characterized by a higher (when compared to summer) spatial coherence, especially in the latitudinal direction. The EOF1 of the winter air temperature (averaged over December–March) describes its fluctuations for almost all of Russia; in this case, no less than 70% of the PC1 variability is due to variations in several circulation indices; the main contribution (60%) is made by both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian (SCAND) indices. On the whole, over the periods 1951–2005 and 1971–2005, the NAO contribution exceeds the SCAND contribution to the winter temperature variability; the NAO is associated with a more rapid increase in air temperature in 1968–1997 and with the 1971–2005 trend. In 1951–1970 the main contribution to air temperature fluctuations was made by SCAND; the SCAND contribution exceeds the NAO contribution in the periods 1951–2005 and 1971–2005. The 1971–2005 and 1968–1997 temperature trends are completely described by variations in the NAO (70%) and SCAND (30%) indices for January and February.     

北极地区1979—2015年西北航道7-10月份气旋的特征分析

本文采用气旋自动识别与追踪算法，基于欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim平均海平面气压场，建立1979-2015年共37年7-10月北极西北航道东西两个区域的气旋数据。数据包括气旋中心经纬度以及中心最低气压值。基于这套数据，分析了北极7-10月西北航道气旋数量特征、空间密度分布、强度特征、加深以及爆发性气旋的活动情况。西北航道东西两段的气旋个数存在显著的差异，东段气旋个数是西段区域的2~2.5倍，并且两段个数变化趋势不一致，西段的气旋个数趋势呈不显著的减少，东段的个数呈不显著上升趋势。西北航道气旋强度偏弱，中心最低气压达980 hPa的气旋仅占不到总数的5%。最低中心气压集中分布在990~1 000 hPa之间。1979-2015年以来，东段的气旋强度趋势增强，西段气旋在2002年以前也是显著的增强，2002年以后强度减弱。气旋的生命史集中在7 d以内，东段1 d以内的气旋个数明显偏多。西段气旋高密度区域主要分布在74°N以北的波弗特海北部，东段主要分布在巴芬湾的东北侧和巴芬岛的东南侧，近几年来其主要密度分布区域东西两段存在南移以及略微变化。西北航道内爆发性气旋的增长位置集中在70°N的沿岸附近，尤其是加拿大北部以及格陵兰西海岸附近。大西洋震荡指数与东段气旋的个数有较好的正相关。     

Volume transport in the Soya Strait during 2006–2008

Time-series data of the vertical structure of the Soya Warm Current (SWC) were obtained by a bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) in the middle of the Soya Strait from September 2006 to July 2008. The site of the ADCP measurement was within the coverage of the ocean-radar measurement around the strait. The volume transport of the SWC through the strait is estimated on the basis of both the vertical structure observed by the ADCP and the horizontal structure observed by the radars for the first time. The annual transport estimates are 0.62–0.67 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³s⁻¹). They are somewhat smaller than the difference between the previous estimates of the inflow and outflow through other straits in the Sea of Japan, and smaller than those obtained in the region downstream of the strait during 2004–05 (0.94–1.04 Sv). The difference in the two periods may be attributed to interannual variability of the SWC and/or the different measurement locations.     

Variations of the Earth’s magnetic field in the Phanerozoic

The global VDM database, which was later supplemented by new determinations published in the world literature (a total of 3194 determinations), is used as the basis for addressing the VDM behavior in the Phanerozoic (0–542 Ma) and up to 580 Ma. The results revealed a positive linear trend to higher VDM values from 3.5 × l0²² Am² to 5.7 × l0²² Am². Against this background, fluctuations of the mean VDMs occur with a periodicity of about 40 Myr. In the Phanerozoic, prominent minima of the intensity are found in the time intervals of 510–520, 420–460, 340–370, 290–300, 240–270, 190–210, 165–140 Ma (chrons M17–M43), 130–120 Ma (chrons M2–M10), 100–110 Ma (chron C34), 75–85 Ma (chrons C33 and the beginning of chron C34), 70–60 Ma (chrons C31–C27), and 40–15 Ma (chrons C18–C5AD). The distribution of the VDMs appears to reflect the paleomagnetic field behavior and may be taken into account in a magnetization model for the reversely magnetized oceanic crust.     

Variation of the southward interior flow of the North Pacific subtropical gyre,as revealed by a repeat hydrographic survey

Baroclinic variations of the southward flow in the interior region of the North Pacific subtropical gyre are presented with five hydrographic sections from San Francisco to near Japan during 2004–2006. The volume transport averaged temperature of the interior flow, which varies vigorously by a maximum of 0.8°C, is negatively correlated with the transport in the layer of density 24.5–26.5σ _θ, associated with changes in the vertical current structure. Transport variation in this density layer is thus mainly responsible for the thermal impact of the interior flow on the heat transport of the subtropical gyre.     

台风浪模拟预报中的风场比较研究

在对模拟台风浪时海浪模式常用的经验模型风场和多重嵌套中尺度气象数值模式风场的结构和时间演变特征进行对比分析的基础上,分别采用这两种风场资料,应用最新版本的第三代海浪模式SWAN对Winnie(1997)引起的台风浪进行了模拟,将模拟的有效波高与TOPEX/POSEIDON和ERS-2卫星高度计资料作了详细的对比分析。结果表明,经验模型风场对实际台风风场的刻画存在诸多缺陷,这些缺陷对于台风浪的准确模拟产生了不可忽视的影响,采用模式风场试验的模拟效果优于采用模型风场的试验。论文提出了在运用海浪模式模拟台风浪时用数值模式模拟风场替代经验模型风场的必要性。     

Geology of the Continental Margin of Enderby and Mac. Robertson Lands, East Antarctica: Insights from a Regional Data Set

In 2001 and 2002, Australia acquired an integrated geophysical data set over the deep-water continental margin of East Antarctica from west of Enderby Land to offshore from Prydz Bay. The data include approximately 7700 km of high-quality, deep-seismic data with coincident gravity, magnetic and bathymetry data, and 37 non-reversed refraction stations using expendable sonobuoys. Integration of these data with similar quality data recorded by Japan in 1999 allows a new regional interpretation of this sector of the Antarctic margin. This part of the Antarctic continental margin formed during the breakup of the eastern margin of India and East Antarctica, which culminated with the onset of seafloor spreading in the Valanginian. The geology of the Antarctic margin and the adjacent oceanic crust can be divided into distinct east and west sectors by an interpreted crustal boundary at approximately 58° E. Across this boundary, the continent–ocean boundary (COB), defined as the inboard edge of unequivocal oceanic crust, steps outboard from west to east by about 100 km. Structure in the sector west of 58° E is largely controlled by the mixed rift-transform setting. The edge of the onshore Archaean–Proterozoic Napier Complex is downfaulted oceanwards near the shelf edge by at least 6 km and these rocks are interpreted to underlie a rift basin beneath the continental slope. The thickness of rift and pre-rift rocks cannot be accurately determined with the available data, but they appear to be relatively thin. The margin is overlain by a blanket of post-rift sedimentary rocks that are up to 6 km thick beneath the lower continental slope. The COB in this sector is interpreted from the seismic reflection data and potential field modelling to coincide with the base of a basement depression at 8.0–8.5 s two-way time, approximately 170 km oceanwards of the shelf-edge bounding fault system. Oceanic crust in this sector is highly variable in character, from rugged with a relief of more than 1 km over distances of 10–20 km, to rugose with low-amplitude relief set on a long-wavelength undulating basement. The crustal velocity profile appears unusual, with velocities of 7.6–7.95 km s⁻¹ being recorded at several stations at a depth that gives a thickness of crust of only 4 km. If these velocities are from mantle, then the thin crust may be due to the presence of fracture zones. Alternatively, the velocities may be coming from a lower crust that has been heavily altered by the intrusion of mantle rocks. The sector east of 58° E has formed in a normal rifted margin setting, with complexities in the east from the underlying structure of the N–S trending Palaeozoic Lambert Graben. The Napier Complex is downfaulted to depths of 8–10 km beneath the upper continental slope, and the margin rift basin is more than 300 km wide. As in the western sector, the rift-stage rocks are probably relatively thin. This part of the margin is blanketed by post-rift sediments that are up to about 8 km thick. The interpreted COB in the eastern sector is the most prominent boundary in deep water, and typically coincides with a prominent oceanwards step-up in the basement level of up to 1 km. As in the west, the interpretation of this boundary is supported by potential field modelling. The oceanic crust adjacent to the COB in this sector has a highly distinctive character, commonly with (1) a smooth upper surface underlain by short, seaward-dipping flows; (2) a transparent upper crustal layer; (3) a lower crust dominated by dipping high-amplitude reflections that probably reflect intruded or altered shears; (4) a strong reflection Moho, confirmed by seismic refraction modelling; and (5) prominent landward-dipping upper mantle reflections on several adjacent lines. A similar style of oceanic crust is also found in contemporaneous ocean basins that developed between Greater India and Australia–Antarctica west of Bruce Rise on the Antarctic margin, and along the Cuvier margin of northwest Australia.     

Latitudinal Differences in the Planktonic Biomass and Community Structure Down to the Greater Depths in the Western North Pacific

As part of the research program WEST-COSMIC Phase I (1997–2001), vertical profiles down to the greater depths (0–2000 m or 5800 m) of the plankton community structure composed of heterotrophic bacteria, phytoplankton, protozooplankton and metazooplankton were studied at one station in each subarctic (44°N) and in transitional region (39°N), and two stations in subtropical region (30°N and 25°N); all in 137–155°E in the western North Pacific Ocean. The biomass of all four taxonomic groups decreased rapidly with increasing depths at all stations, although the magnitude of depth-related decrease differed among the groups. As plankton community structure, metazooplankton biomass and bacterial biomass occupied >50% of the total in 0–2000 and 2000–4000 or 5000 m strata, respectively, at subarctic and transitional stations, while bacterial biomass contributed to >50% of the total consistently from 0 through 4800 or 5800 m at subtropical stations. Metazooplankton biomass integrated over the greater depths exhibited a clear latitudinal pattern (high north and low south), but this was not the case for those of the other taxonomic groups. As a component of metazooplankton, an appreciable contribution of diapausing copepods to the metazooplankton was noted at subarctic and transitional stations, but they were few or nil at subtropical stations. As protozooplankton assemblages, heterotrophic microflagellates (HMF) and dinoflagellates were two major components at subarctic and transitional stations, but were only HMF predominated at subtropical stations. From biomass ratios between heterotrophic bacteria, HMF and dinoflagellates, “sinking POC-DOC-heterotrophic bacteria-HMF-heterotrophic dinoflagellates” link was proposed as a microbial food chain operative in the deep layer of the western North Pacific. All results are discussed in the light of latitudinal differences in the structure and functioning of plankton community contributing to the ‘biological pump’ in the western North Pacific Ocean. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Particulate organic carbon (POC) in surface sediments of the Baltic Sea

In this study, particulate organic carbon (POC) contents and their distribution pattern in surficial sediments of the Baltic Sea are presented for 1,471 sampling stations. POC contents range from approx. 0.1% in shallow sandy areas up to 16% in deep muddy basins (e.g. Gotland Basin). Some novel relationships were identified between sediment mass physical properties (dry bulk density (DBD), grain size) and POC levels. Notably, the highest POC concentrations (about 10–17 mg cm^–3) occur in sandy mud to mud (60–100% mud content) with intermediate POC contents of about 3–7% and DBDs of 0.1–0.4 g cm^–3. Areas with this range in values seem to represent the optimum conditions for POC accumulation in the Baltic Sea. The maximum POC contents (8–16%) are found in fluid mud of the central Baltic Sea characterized by extremely low DBDs (<0.1 g cm^–3) and moderate POC concentrations (4–7 mg cm^–3). Furthermore, sediment mass accumulation rates (MAR), based on ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs measurements and available for 303 sites of the Baltic Sea, were used for assessing the spatial distribution of POC burial rates. Overall, these vary between 14 and 35 g m^–2 year^–1 in the mud depositional areas and, in total, at least 3.5 (±2.9) Mt POC are buried annually. Distribution patterns of POC contents and burial rates are not identical for the central Baltic Sea because of the low MAR in this area. The presented data characterize Baltic Sea sediments as an important sink for organic carbon. Regional differences in organic carbon deposition can be explained by the origin and transport pathways of POC, as well as the environmental conditions prevailing at the seafloor (morphology, currents, redox conditions). These findings can serve to improve budget calculations and modelling of the carbon cycle in this large brackish-water marginal sea.     

Continental shelf architecture and sea-level cycles: Late Quaternary high-resolution stratigraphy of the Gulf of Cádiz, Spain

 The stratal architecture of the Gulf of Cádiz continental margin (SW Spain) has been analyzed by using single-channel, very high-resolution seismic reflection profiles. An evolutionary scheme of asymmetrical depositional sequences is proposed that was governed by the Late Pleistocene–Holocene sea-level fluctuations. Stratigraphic analysis defined 14 seismic units, that are configured into two major type-1 depositional sequences related to 4th-order eustatic sea level changes (100–110 ka). Within these sequences, minor asymmetrical depositional sequences have been recognized related to 5th-order eustatic cycles (22–23 ka) superimposed and modulated by the regressive trends of 4th-order cycles. In 5th-order depositional sequences, the forced regressive and lowstand deposits are volumetrically dominant. They cause the main progradation of the margin in such a way that they form the margin structure almost entirely. Received: 6 April 1995 / Revision received: 8 March 1996     

The role of basement inheritance faults in the recent fracture system of the inner shelf around Alboran Island,Western Mediterranean

Fractures associated with volcanic rock outcrops on the inner shelf of Alboran Island, Western Mediterranean, were mapped on the basis of a side-scan sonar mosaic. Absolute maximum fracture orientation frequency is NW–SE to NNW–SSE, with several sub-maxima oriented NNE–SSW, NE–SW and ENE–WSW. The origin of the main fracture systems in Neogene and Quaternary rocks of the Alboran Basin (south Spain) appears to be controlled by older structures, namely NE–SW and WNW–ESE to NW–SE faults which cross-cut the basement. These faults, pre-Tortonian in origin, have been reactivated since the early Neogene in the form of strike-slip and extensional movements linked to the recent stress field in this area. Fracture analysis of volcanic outcrops on the inner continental shelf of Alboran Island suggests that the shelf has been deformed into a narrow shear zone limited by two NE–SW-trending, sub-parallel high-angle faults, the main orientation and density of which have been influenced by previous WNW–ESE to NW–SE basement fractures.