大凉山断裂带中段普雄断裂晚第四纪古地震

大凉山断裂带是中国大陆大型强震断裂带鲜水河-小江断裂系的重要组成部分,其中段的普雄断裂是断裂带中最长的1条次级断裂。该次级断裂的古地震活动情况对评价该区域地震活动水平和建立地震灾害预防措施具有重要意义。近年开展的活动断层填图和古地震探槽研究表明普雄断裂是1条晚更新世以来活动强烈的略向W倾的高角度左旋走滑断层。沿断裂开挖的2个探槽分别揭露了2次和3次古地震事件,分别发生在8206 BC—1172 AD、1084—1549 AD和17434—7557BC、1577—959 BC、927—1360 AD。结合探槽古地震结果和历史地震记载,进行建模分析得到断裂的离逝时间约为0.7ka,与距今倒数第2次事件的时间间隔约为2.3ka。同时,根据震级与地表破裂长度的经验公式估算古地震事件震级在7级以上。     

青藏高原北缘三危山断裂东北段的古地震事件

三危山断裂位于青藏高原北缘,为阿尔金断裂带的一条重要分支,研究其晚更新世以来的活动特征,可为全面地把握青藏高原北缘的地震活动规律提供基础资料。在对三危山断裂东北段(十工口子西-双塔)进行遥感资料解译、野外地质地貌调查和探槽开挖,并分析探槽内揭露的断层、地层和楔状堆积三者之间关系的基础上,结合相关堆积物的光释光断代研究,最终利用逐次限定法分析了古地震事件发生的年代。研究发现该断裂段上晚更新世以来发生了3次古地震事件:距今最远的一次事件E1发生在约5.3万年前,接近5.3万年;第二次事件E2发生于距今约4万年之前,5.3万年之后,更接近4万年;最近的一次事件E3发生于距今7.42—2.47ka。由于晚更新世以来探槽开挖地点地层沉积的不连续,或地层沉积之后发生的侵蚀作用,导致探槽内揭露出的古地震事件存在严重缺失。但可以确定的是,在晚更新世中晚期和全新世,三危山断裂东北段上确有破裂地表的古地震事件发生。     

龙门山断裂带晚第四纪的大地震活动——来自古地震研究的资料

2018年5·12汶川地震后,龙门山断裂带的大地震活动特征一直是倍受关注的科学问题.而探槽古地震研究是最直接揭示活断层带晚第四纪大地震活动规律的重要途径.本文通过系统总结龙门山断裂带近十年来探槽古地震研究成果,全面分析了龙门山断裂带不同段落的晚第四纪大地震活动与复发特征.结果显示：龙门山断裂带的大地震活动具有明显的分段性,北川—映秀断裂和江油—灌县断裂中段（包括小鱼洞断裂）是全新世以来,最为活跃的段落,约距今6000年以来,发生过3次位移量近似相等的事件,分别发生在5920—5730 cal BP和3300—2300 cal BP,大地震活动具有3000年左右的准周期复发特征;北川—映秀断裂的北段具有独立破裂的能力,该段汶川地震前一次事件发生在大约665—1030 AD,可能是历史上记载的942 AD地震事件,另一次事件发生在8240—7785 BC;江油—灌县断裂的南段（大川—双石断裂）发震能力明显弱于断裂带中段和北段.现有古地震数据表明,沿北川—映秀断裂,除汶川地震以外,并未显示出不同段落间在全新世期间存在级联破裂的证据,这可能意味着2008年汶川M8地震是龙门山断裂带上罕见的巨大地震事件.另外,青川断裂上探槽揭露的古地震变形事件不像是断裂直接位错的结果,更可能是被动响应北川—映秀断裂右旋位错的现象.     

郯庐断裂带安丘-莒县断裂江苏段古地震研究新进展

郯庐断裂带是中国东部活动性最强的断裂带,郯庐断裂带江苏段主要由5条分支断层组成,并于更新世强烈活动,其中安丘-莒县断裂持续活动至全新世,是1668年郯城■级特大地震的发震断裂。文中采用古地震探槽方法研究安丘-莒县断裂江苏段全新世以来的古地震事件,并采用¹⁴C测年方法确定古地震的时间。结合前人通过探槽揭露的古地震时间进行综合分析,认为安丘-莒县断裂江苏段全新世以来共有3次古地震事件,时间分别为距今3 000a以来、距今约6 000a和11 000a,垂直同震位移均约1m。1668年郯城8.5级地震在安丘-莒县断裂新沂段山前出露区存在地表破裂的迹象,在隐伏区表现为大量喷砂冒水现象,在探槽揭露的晚全新世地层中有密集的裂缝和砂脉。     

内蒙古色尔腾山山前断裂带乌加河段古地震活动

通过对色尔腾山山前断裂带乌加河段断层地貌研究，并结合前人对断裂带断裂活动性的工作，分析得到乌加河活动断裂段晚更新世晚期(距今1.445～2.234万年)以来平均垂直位移速率是0.48～0.75 mm/a，全新世早中期以来(距今5 570～8 830年)平均垂直位移速率是0.56～ 0.88 mm/a．利用5个探槽中揭露的古地震现象，结合前人对该断裂带古地震的研究结果，分析确定出2.7万年以来，色尔腾山山前断裂乌加河段共揭露出5次古地震事件，重复间隔约为4 300～4 400年．距今8 000～9 000年之间可能为一个古地震丛，而距今1～2万年之间可能遗漏了两次古地震事件．对比断层陡坎的高度与探槽中揭示出古地震事件的位移和，以及由断层平均位移速率和一次事件的位移得到古地震的重复间隔，得到阿拉盖兔探槽中缺失了3次古地震事件，整个活动断裂段上可能缺失了两次古地震事件．      

东昆仑断裂带东段玛曲断裂古地震初步研究

东昆仑活动断裂是青藏高原东北部一条重要的NWW向边界断裂。玛曲断裂位于东昆仑断裂带的最东段。本文通过3个古地震剖面揭示出东昆仑断裂东段玛曲断裂全新世共有4次古地震事件。最新一次古地震事件为距今(1730±50)～(1802±52)a,第二次古地震的时间为距今(3736±57)～(4641±60)a;第三次为距今(8590±70)a;第四次为距今(12200±1700)a。其中第一次和第二次古地震事件的时间较为可靠,两次古地震事件之间的复发间隔为2400a左右,由此认为东昆仑断裂带东段的古震事件之间的复发间隔为2400a左右,古地震的离逝时间为距今(1730±50)～(1802±52)a。     

四川大凉山断裂带古地震研究初步结果

沿四川大凉山断裂带的 4条次级断裂开挖了 4个探槽 ,共揭露出 9次古地震事件。根据探槽中年龄样品的测试结果 ,分析了各次事件的距今年龄及其重复间隔。其中 ,有 3个探槽共揭露出4次全新世以来的古地震事件。 9次古地震的垂直位移量在 0 5～ 1 5m之间 ,与鲜水河 -小江断裂带历史地震所产生的垂直位移量进行对比 ,估计它们的震级都在 7级以上     

山西峨嵋台地北缘断裂全新世古地震研究

山西峨嵋台地北缘断裂是汾渭断陷带内临汾-侯马盆地与峨嵋台地隆起之间的边界断裂,对临汾-侯马盆地内的侯马次级盆地具有控制作用。该断裂自西向东分为西、中、东3段,西段为早中更新世活动,中段为全新世活动,东段为晚更新世活动。在断裂中段的任庄村和金沙村附近开挖了两个探槽,通过对探槽所揭露的古地震事件的年代学分析,结合前人研究结果,认为峨嵋台地北缘断裂全新世发生过A1及A2两次古地震事件,年代分别为466a BC、约4.6ka BP。事件A1即史料记载的466a BC晋空桐地震,震级可能达71/2级。     

郯庐断裂带江苏段安丘-莒县断裂全新世活动及其构造意义

郯庐断裂带是中国东部重要的活动断裂带和边界构造带,其鲁苏段全新世活动断层的空间展布和古地震序列是地学关注的焦点问题,也是准确评价区域地震危险性的重要参数.以往研究工作多集中在郯庐断裂带地表地貌现象明显且有强震记录的山东段,而江苏段则研究程度相对较低,有关郯庐断裂带江苏段全新世活动断层范围和古地震序列问题存在争议.本文利用野外地质地貌调查、浅层地震勘探、钻孔联合剖面以及古地震探槽等多层次综合方法,重点开展郯庐断裂带江苏段全新世活动断层的分布和古地震序列研究.结果显示全新世时期,安丘-莒县断裂是郯庐断裂带江苏段的主要活动断层,且江苏全段该断层都是全新世活动断层.通过对比宿迁闸-皂河镇断裂南北安丘-莒县断裂的断层地貌和断层最新活动时间,并结合宿迁闸-皂河镇断裂在第四纪没有活动过等证据,推测该断层在全新世时期并不是区域阻碍破裂的断层.探槽揭示郯庐断裂带江苏段全新世两次古地震事件,事件Ⅰ限定在（6.2±0.3）-（13.4±0.7）ka B.P.之间,而事件Ⅱ限定在（2.5±0.1）ka B.P.到现今,全新世两次古地震间隔较长.基于构造类比法,安丘-莒县断裂具有深部孕震的构造特点,是区域未来强震的潜在发震构造.     

月亮山东麓断裂古地震活动的初步研究

月亮山东麓断裂位于海原断裂带的东段。1920年海原大地震时该断裂也发生了破裂。对该段断裂的古地震活动特征的初步研究表明，全新世以来，月亮山东断裂可能发生过5次破裂事件，主要分布在全新世的早期和末期。海原断裂带具有分段破裂的特征，因此需要对照整个断裂带的古地震活动特征，才能确定月亮山东断裂是一个独立的破裂单元还是其他段落破裂的影响段。     

LATE-QUATERNARY ACTIVITY OF THE YALAHE FAULT OF THE XIANSHUIHE FAULT ZONE,EASTERN MARGIN OF THE TIBET PLATEAU

Complex geometrical structures on strike-slip faults would likely affect fault behavior such as strain accumulation and distribution, seismic rupture process, etc. The Xianshuihe Fault has been considered to be a Holocene active strike-slip fault with a high horizontal slip rate along the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau. During the past 300 years, the Xianshuihe Fault produced 8 earthquakes with magnitude≥7 along the whole fault and showed strong activities of large earthquakes. Taking the Huiyuansi Basin as a structure boundary, the northwestern and southeastern segments of the Xianshuihe Fault show different characteristics. The northwestern segment, consisting of the Luhuo, Daofu and Qianning sections, shows a left-stepping en echelon pattern by simple fault strands. However, the southeastern segment(Huiyuansi-Kangding segment)has a complex structure and is divided into three sub-faults: the Yalahe, Selaha and Zheduotang Faults. To the south of Kangding County, the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe Fault shows a simple structure. The previous studies suggest that the three sub-faults(the Yalahe, Selaha and Zheduotang Faults of the Huiyuansi-Kangding segment)unevenly distribute the strain of the northwestern segment of the Xianshuihe Fault. However, the disagreement of the new activity of the Yalahe Fault limits the understanding of the strain distribution model of the Huiyuansi-Kangding segment. Most scholars believed that the Yalahe Fault is a Holocene active fault. However, Zhang et al.(2017)used low-temperature thermochronology to study the cooling history of the Gongga rock mass, and suggested that the Yalahe Fault is now inactive and the latest activity of the Xianshuihe Fault has moved westward over the Selaha Fault. The Yalahe Fault is the only segment of the Xianshuihe Fault that lacks records of the strong historical earthquakes. Moreover, the Yalahe Fault is located in the alpine valley area, and the previous traffic conditions were very bad. Thus, the previous research on fault activity of the fault relied mainly on the interpretation of remote sensing, and the uncertainty was relatively large. Through remote sensing and field investigation, we found the geological and geomorphological evidence for Holocene activity of the Yalahe Fault. Moreover, we found a well-preserved seismic surface rupture zone with a length of about 10km near the Yariacuo and the co-seismic offsets of the earthquake are about 2.5~3.5m. In addition, we also advance the new active fault track of the Yalahe Fault to Yala Town near Kangding County. In Wangmu and Yala Town, we found the geological evidence for the latest fault activity that the Holocene alluvial fans were dislocated by the fault. These evidences suggest that the Yalahe Fault is a Holocene active fault, and has the seismogenic tectonic condition to produce a large earthquake, just like the Selaha and Zheduotang Faults. These also provide seismic geological evidence for the strain distribution model of the Kangding-Huiyuansi segment of the Xianshuihe Fault.     

STUDY ON DYNAMIC CHANGE OF GRAVITY FIELD IN XIANSHUIHE FAULT ZONE AND THEIR RELATION TO THE OCCURRENCE OF MS ≥ 5.0 EARTHQUAKES

Xianshuihe Fault, a main strong earthquake activity belt in southwest China, begins from Ganzi in the northwest, passes through Luhuo, Daofu, and Kangding, and then extents along the Dadu River valley. The fault is divided into two parts at Shimian, one part turns to south and converses to Anninghe Fault extending further to south, the other part, continuing to extend to southeast, cutting through Xiaoxiangling and then changing to Daliangshan Faults in the north of the Yuexi Basin, has the length of about 400km. Since 1700AD, there have happened 22 earthquakes larger than magnitude 6.0 and 8 earthquakes larger than magnitude 7.0. In this paper, we systematically collated and computed the gravity repetition measurement data along the Xianshuihe fault zone since 1988, and by referring to the anomaly index of gravity field of the predecessor achievements, analyzed the spatial-temporal variation of the regional gravity field and the relation to the occurrence of ≥ M_S5.0 earthquakes. The mechanism of the regional gravity changes is further studied, and also the implication of strong earthquake risk because of the dynamic variation of gravity field in the near future is discussed.The results show that:1)The mobile gravity observation has the ability to detect crustal activity and M_S ≥ 5.0 earthquake events. 2)There is definite correspondence between interannual gravitational field change and the 8 earthquakes among the 13 M_S ≥ 5.0 earthquakes occurring in the surveying area since 1988, which can be determined according to the change of interannual gravitational field. Three M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes occurred 3~4 years after the abnormal image was developed, 4 earthquakes that occurred in the region of no data available were not determined. 3)A significant feature of the spatial-temporal variation of the regional gravity is a north-south run-through image before 2004, and characterized by the alternatively positive or negative variation in different year, the earthquakes of M_S ≥ 5.0 occurring in this period were not distributed along the fault. Gravity variation magnitude indicates that there were two similar crustal material movement waves before 2004, corresponding to the course of earthquake space-time distribution from strong to weak in the study area. After 2010, the variation image shows that the local positive and negative zones are concurrent within a year, different from the image before 2004, and earthquakes of M_S ≥ 5.0 basically occurred on the fault. It is believed that the variation of gravity field since 1988 and the seismic distribution fit with the geodynamic mode of strong and weak stages of the northeast motion of Indian plate. According to the conclusion we can try to optimize gravity anomaly index. After the Kangding earthquake in 2014, the north segment of Moxi Fault was still subject to negative high value changes till 2017 and then the gravity variation was further developed to a four quadrant distribution image. Based on the analysis of this paper and the previous variation trend of gravity field, we believe that the north segment of Moxi Fault has the background of medium-long term, strong or large earthquake risk.     

NEW EVIDENCES OF HOLOCENE ACTIVITY IN THE JIANGSU SEGMENT OF ANQIU-JUXIAN FAULT OF THE TANLU FAULT ZONE

Anqiu-Juxian Fault is an important fault in the Tanlu fault zone, with the largest seismic risk, the most recent activity date and the most obvious surface traces. It is also the seismogenic fault of the Tancheng M8 1/2 earthquake in 1668. There are many different views about the southern termination location of surface rupture of the Tancheng earthquake and the Holocene activity in Jiangsu segment of this fault. Research on the latest activity time of the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault, particularly the termination location of surface rupture of the Tancheng earthquake, is of great significance to the assessment of its earthquake potential and seismic risk. Based on trench excavation on the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault, we discuss the time and characteristics of its latest activity. Multiple geological sections from southern Maling Mountain to Chonggang Mountain indicate that there was an ancient seismic event occurring in Holocene on the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault. We suggest the time of the latest seismic event is about(4.853±0.012)~(2.92±0.3)ka BP by dating results. The latest activity is characterized by thrust strike-slip faulting, with the maximum displacement of 1m. Combined with the fault rupture characteristics of each section, it is inferred that only one large-scale paleo-earthquake event occurred on the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault since the Holocene. The upper parts of the fault are covered by horizontal sand layers, not only on the trench in the west of Chonggang mountain but also on the trench in Hehuan Road in Suqian city, which indicates that the main part of the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault was probably not the surface rupture zone of the 1668 Tancheng M8 1/2 earthquake. In short, the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault has experienced many paleo-earthquake events since the late Pleistocene, with obvious activity during the Holocene. The seismic activities of the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault have the characteristics of large magnitude and low frequency. The Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault has the deep tectonic and seismic-geological backgrounds of big earthquakes generation and should be highly valued by scientists.     

HOLOCENE PALAEOSEISMOLOGIC RECORD AND RUPTURE BEHAVIOR OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES ON THE XIANSHUIHE FAULT

The Xianshuihe Fault, the boundary of Bayan Har active tectonic block and Sichuan-Yunnan active tectonic block, is one of the most active fault zones in the world. In the past nearly 300 years, 9 historical earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 7 have been recorded. Since 2008, several catastrophic earthquakes, such as Wenchuan M_S8 earthquake, Yushu M_S7.1 earthquake and Lushan M_S7 earthquake, have occurred on the other Bayan Har block boundary fault zones. However, only the Kangding M_S6.3 earthquake in 2014 was documented on the Xianshuihe Fault. Thus, the study of surface deformation and rupture behavior of large earthquakes in the late Quaternary on the Xianshuihe Fault is of fundamental importance for understanding the future seismic risk of this fault, and even the entire western Sichuan region. On the basis of the former work, combined with our detailed geomorphic and geological survey, we excavated a combined trench on the Qianning segment of Xianshuihe fault zone which has a long elapse time. Charcoal and woods in the trench are abundant. 30 samples were dated to constrain the ages of the paleoseismic events. Five events were identified in the past 9  000 years, whose ages are:8070-6395 BC, 5445-5125 BC, 4355-4180 BC, 625-1240 AD and the Qianning earthquake in 1893. The large earthquake recurrence behavior on this segment does not follow the characteristic earthquake recurrence model. The recurrence interval is 1000~2000 years in early period and in turn there is a quiet period of about 5 000 years after 4355-4180 BC event. Then it enters the active period again. Two earthquakes with surface rupture occurred in the past 1000 years and the latest two earthquakes may have lower magnitude. The left-lateral coseismic displacement of the 1893 Qianning earthquake is about 2.9m.     

DETERMINATION OF SLIP RATE ON THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE ANNINGHE FAULT

The Anninghe Fault has been suggested as an important segment of the fault system along the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan faulted block in the southeastern region of the Tibetan plateau. Reliable determination of the Late Quaternary slip rate on the Anninghe Fault is very helpful and significant for revealing deformation mechanism and kinematic characteristics of the Sichuan-Yunnan faulted block, which further helps us understand fault activity and seismic potential of the region. However, previous studies were focused mainly on the northern segment of the Anninghe Fault, while slip rate on its southern segment has been less studied. Therefore, in this paper, we chose two sites at Dashuigou and Maoheshan on the southern segment of the Anninghe Fault, and used high-resolution images of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)photogrammetry technology, detailed field survey, multiple paleoseismic trenching and radiocarbon dating methods to constrain slip rate on the southern fault segment of the Anninghe Fault. Specifically, we suggest that the slip rate at the Dashuigouo site is narrowly constrained to be~4.4mm/a since about 3^￣￣300a^￣￣BP based on a linear regression calculation method, and speculate that a slip rate of 2.6~5.2mm/a at the Maoheshan site would be highly possible, although we poorly constrained the whole deformation amount of the two branch faults at the Maoheshan site from multiple paleoseismic trenching. The data at the two sites on the southern segment show a consistent slip rate compared with that of the northern segment of the Anninghe Fault. Moreover, considering a similar paleoseismic recurrence interval on the two segments of the Anninghe Fault from previous studies, we further suggest that the fault activity and deformation pattern on the two segments of the Annignhe Fault appears to be well consistent, which is also in agreement with the regional tectonic deformation.     

安宁河断裂带北段的最新地面活断层与地震潜在能力研究

从最新地面活断层的不连续性,断层滑动速率以及古地震研究的角度讨论安宁河断裂带北段的地震潜在能力,认为不连续的活断层可能成为各自独立的地震破裂单元,从而决定了地震的潜在能力,其中,野鸡洞破裂段的潜在地震能力最强,可达7级。上次地震至今的平静时间已接近古地震的平均重现间隔,因而具有高度的地震危险性     

THE DISCUSSION FOR THE NEW ACTIVITY OF THE TIANQUAN SEGMENT OF LONGMENSHAN FAULT ZONE AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO THE 1327 TIANQUAN EARTHQUAKE,SICHUAN

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake occurred along the Longmen Shan fault zone, only five years later, another M7 Lushan earthquake struck the southern segment where its seismic risk has been highly focused by multiple geoscientists since this event. Through geological investigations and paleoseismic trenching, we suggest that the segment along the Shuangshi-Dachuan Fault at south of the seismogenic structure of the Lushan earthquake is active during Holocene. Along the fault, some discontinuous fault trough valleys developed and the fault dislocated the late Quaternary strata as the trench exposed. Based on analysis of historical records of earthquakes, we suggest that the epicenter of the 1327 Tianquan earthquake should be located near Tianquan and associated with the Shuangshi-Dachuan Fault. Furthermore, we compared the ranges of felt earthquakes(the 2013 M7 Lushan earthquake and the 1970 M_S6.2 Dayi earthquake)and suggest that the magnitude of the 1327 Tianquan earthquake is more possible between 6½ and 7. The southern segment of the Longmen Shan fault zone behaves as a thrust fault system consisting of several sub-paralleled faults and its deep structure shows multiple layers of decollement, which might disperse strain accumulation effectively and make the thrust system propagate forward into the foreland basin, creating a new decollement on a gypsum-salt bed. The soft bed is thick and does not facilitate to constrain fault deformation and accumulate strain, which produces a weak surface tectonic expression and seismic activity along the southern segment, this is quite different from that of the middle and northern segments of the Longmen Shan fault zone.     

PALEOSEISMIC RECORDS OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES ON THE CROSS-BASIN FAULT IN THE SALT LAKE PULL-APART BASIN AND CASCADE RUPTURE EVENTS ON THE HAIYUAN FAULT

Cascade rupture events often occur along large strike-slip fault zone.The 1920 AD M 8¹/₂ earthquake ruptured all 3 segments of the Haiyuan Fault,and the Salt Lake pull-apart basin is the boundary between the west and middle segment of the fault.The data of trenching and drilling reveal 7 events occurring since last stage of late Pleistocene,and the two youngest events are associated with the historical records of 1092 AD (possibly) and 1920 AD respectively.These events are all large earthquakes with magnitude M>8,and the recurrence of them is characterized by earthquake clusters alternating with a single event.Now it is in the latest cluster which may last about 1000 years.Comparison of the paleoseismic sequence of this study and previous results reveals that the cross-basin fault in the Salt Lake pull-apart basin does not always rupture when cascade rupture events occur along the Haiyuan Fault,and likely ruptures only when the magnitude of the events is large (maybe M>8).Though there are many advantages in paleoseismic study in pull-apart basin,we should avoid getting the paleoseismic history of major strike-slip fault zones only depending on the rupture records of inner faults in pull-apart basins with large scale (maybe a width more than 3km).     

川滇菱形块体东边界库仑应力演化及强震发生概率估算

本研究基于分层黏弹介质模型,考虑强震或大地震同震位错、震后黏滞松弛及主断层段震间构造应力加载三方面效应,给出1480年以来,川滇菱形块体东边界鲜水河断裂带、安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂带和小江断裂带共20个断层段由三方面效应引起的累积库仑应力变化随时间的演化,分析强震间相互作用和强震发生的应力累积背景,定性分析各断层段的地震危险性.同时,分别采用现今台网地震目录和川滇菱形块体东边界各断层段强震复发间隔两种资料,定量计算2030年各断层段的强震发生概率;并基于摩擦本构理论,将周边强震引起的库仑应力变化量作为应力扰动,修正强震发生概率的计算结果.各断层段累积库仑应力演化的结果表明,鲜水河断裂带中部八美段、色拉哈段及南部磨西段、安宁河断裂带冕宁-西昌段、小江断裂带北部巧家-东川段和南部建水段的累积库仑应力显著增加.修正的强震发生概率计算结果显示,鲜水河断裂带中部八美-色拉哈-康定一带、安宁河断裂带冕宁-西昌段、小江断裂带南部华宁-建水一带强震发生概率较高,地震危险性值得关注.本研究基于库仑应力演化计算定性分析强震危险性的同时,基于摩擦本构律理论,结合地震引起的应力扰动和强震发生背景,定量计算修正的强震发生概率,为川滇菱形块体东边界强震危险地点及中长期发震紧迫程度判定提供方法和依据.     

鲜水河断裂带的应力积累与释放

本文根据历史地震(Ms6.0)的资料,研究了鲜水河断裂带的地震活动性,并利用断层的位错模式进一步研究该断裂带的应力积累和释放过程.结果表明,该断裂带的强震活动大致以道孚为界,形成北西和南东两个活动地段,呈现南北交替活动的特征.地震能量的这种交替释放似具有准周期性质,Ms7.0级地震的平均复发周期为27.6年.给出该断裂带在三个不同时间段(1700-1811,1816-1967,1816-1982)强震断层作用引起的应力释放图象,讨论了前两个时间段地震应力场对其后发生的第一个大地震的重要影响.计算了1893年以来在断裂带南东段(相对闭锁段)的应力积累,示出相应的最大剪应力和流体静应力等值线图.最后,根据应力积累、附加应力变化、地震活动规律和应变释放曲线特征,估计了鲜水河断裂带的地震趋势.认为在本世纪末,在断裂带南东段的(1)康定-磨西段或(2)道孚-乾宁段或(3)乾宁-康定段将可能发生 Ms=7.40.3地震.