TRMM多卫星降水分析资料揭示的青藏高原及其周边地区夏季降水日变化

本文在对比了TRMM多卫星降水分析TMPA(TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis)资料和中国643个气象站观测降水量时空分布的基础上,采用2002~2006年夏季TMPA每小时降水量资料,用合成分析和谐波分析的方法研究了青藏高原及其周边地区夏季降水量和降水频率的日变化特征.分析结果表明,平均降水量和降水频率日变化谐波分析的标准振幅显示出青藏高原地区夏季降水具有显著的日变化特征,高原中部地区对流活动日变化最强,其次是高原西南方向的印度半岛地区.谐波分析的位相表明降水量和降水频率最大值出现的时间具有选择性,高原中部降水量最大值多集中在傍晚前后,高原以东的四川盆地通常在夜晚,尤其是在后半夜达到最大值,而长江上游和中下游地区对流活动则分别在上午和下午最为活跃.青藏高原以东地区降水量日变化的位相明显不同于其他陆地地区,也不同于高原中部,具有自西向东传播的信号,四川盆地的夜雨现象可能是高原地区对流活动日变化自西向东传播的结果.     

新疆北部降水的气候分布特片及其对ENSO的响应

分析研究了新疆北部地区近50年（1951-2000年）全年各月降水的气候分布特征和各季降水的年际变化规律，重点揭示了北疆多雨季节（4-7月）及其各月降水量对赤道东太平洋的海温SST和南方涛动指数SOI的显著响应关系，并用前期SST和SOI作为预报因子，建立了北疆地区雨季水量的预报方程。该方程可用于北疆地区雨季降水量的长期预报。     

华北地区降水事件变化和暴雨事件减少原因分析

使用北京、天津、河北、山西的37个气象观测站的1961～2008年逐日降水资料和NCEP、EC环流资料,对华北降水事件和暴雨事件减少原因进行分析.结果表明,华北地区盛夏暴雨事件对夏季降水量和全年降水量变化有重要影响,近50年盛夏暴雨事件呈显著线性减少趋势,这与东亚夏季风减弱使得从南边界进入华北的水汽通量大量减少以及副热...     

长江流域降水极值时间序列的分布特征

在1960-2005年长江流域147气象观测站汛期4-9月逐日降水资料基础上,通过计算逐站大于95th强降水及其间隔天数、小于1.27mm/d的持续天数,分析长江流域降水极值时间序列的时空分布特征,并建立概率分布模式.研究发现,长江上游四川盆地附近及中下游鄱阳湖流域东南部是汛期强降水中心,也是长江流域强降水最集中发生的地区.汛期降水强度小于1.27mm/d的天数,在上游干流、岷沱江流域、乌江上游地区为多.但此处干旱持续天数最短,干旱形式并不严重.而在金沙江上、下游,洞庭湖流域,鄱阳湖流域东南部支流及下游干流区干旱持续天数较长.长江流域大于95th强降水的间隔天数与小于1.27mm/d的干旱持续天数服从Weibull-Ⅱ型分布.分布参数变化的模式较准确的反映降水极值时间序列的时空变化特征.     

基于地震背景噪声监测山东临沂地区地下水位变化

选取山东省临沂地区的JUN与JUX台站数据资料,运用背景噪声互相关技术计算了2009年1月1日—2011年1月1日台站对间的互相关函数,利用移动窗互谱法计算相对速度变化,并分析其与莒县气象观测站记录的降水和莒南鲁14号井记录的地下水水位变化的关联性。研究结果表明,区域降水呈季节性变化,夏季降水量大,冬季降水量小;地下水水位呈季节性变化,初夏季水位较低,随后水位值逐渐增加,初冬季水位较高,随后水位值逐渐减少;地下介质速度变化亦具有季节性特征,变化幅度约为±0.2%,与水位变化呈一定的负相关趋势,即夏季水位增加、相对速度变化降低,冬季水位减少、相对速度变化升高。     

新疆北部降水的气候分布特征及其对ENSO的响应

分析研究了新疆北部地区近50年(1951～2000年)全年各月降水的气候分布特征和各季降水的年际变化规律,重点揭示了北疆多雨季节(4～7月)及其各月降水量对赤道东太平洋的海温SST和南方涛动指数SOI的显著响应关系,并用前期SST和SOI作为预报因子,建立了北疆地区雨季降水量的预报方程.该方程可用于北疆地区雨季降水量的长期预报.     

城市化进程对北京地区冬季降水分布的影响

根据北京地区城市化程度将城市化进程分成两个时期: 即以1980年为分界点, 将1961~1980年划分为城市化慢速期, 1981~2000年为城市化快速期. 利用北京地区14个标准气象站40 a的降水量资料. 研究了城市化进程对北京地区降水分布的影响. 结果表明: 北京地区冬季降水分布发生了显著的、系统性的变化; 城市化缓慢期, 北京地区南部为降水相对较多地区, 北部为降水相对偏少地区; 城市化快速期, 相对降水量的分布正相反, 南部地区变为降水相对较少地区, 而北部变为降水相对偏多地区. 随着城市规模的扩大, 北京冬季“城市热岛”和“城市干岛”效应增强, 加速了云下降水物的蒸发过程, 使城区及南部地区的降水相对减少. 这可能是造成北京冬季降水分布变化的重要原因之一.     

北京地区城市环境对云和降水影响的个例数值模拟研究

本文利用中尺度可分辨云模式(WRF,Weather Research and Forecasting)对2011年8月14日北京地区一次强降水过程进行了数值模拟和敏感性试验,研究了城市环境(包括城市气溶胶和城市地表)对北京地区云和降水的影响.研究结果表明:城市气溶胶污染增强和城市地表使得北京地区(城区和周边)降水量减少,对城区平均累积降水量的影响作用分别为-38.92%和-3.4%.降水系统向北京主城区移动过程中,城市气溶胶在城市环境影响降水过程中的作用逐渐减小为85.13%,城市地表的作用增加到14.87%.城市污染气溶胶增强,使得非降水性粒子增多,而降水性粒子减少,这不利于对流的发展增强,使得水汽的垂直输送减弱,导致区域降水量减小.城市地表对强对流的发展也表现为减弱作用,这使得水汽的垂直输送减小,区域降水量减小.     

中国区域地理、地形因子对降水分布影响的估算和分析

不同与以往基于最小二乘的多元线性回归方法，本文首次尝试将新型的第二代回归分析方法——偏最小二乘回归分析方法应用到中国区域的降水建模中．利用区域内394个气象观测站建站到2000年45年(及以上)的降水资料，建立了一个简单的年、季降水量和地理、地形因子(包括纬度、经度、地形高程、坡度、坡向和遮蔽度)的关系模型，估算了区域降水量中地理、地形的影响部分，并分析了这种影响的特征．结果表明，用此方法建立的模型能够解释70%以上的因变量的变异，相关系数基本都在0.84以上，经交叉有效性检验，模型的回归效果较显著．分析表明，在多元线性回归不适用的情况下，本文基于偏最小二乘法的简单模型能够比较准确地定性、定量地再现实际降水分布．     

青海湖流域圆柏年轮指示的近千年降水变化

根据采自青海湖流域天峻地区树木年轮样本,建立了该地1061a树木年轮年表序列.通过响应函数计算得出,该年表对青海湖区前一年年降水量反映敏感,由其重建了该地的年降水量序列,并应用交叉检验方法对校准方程进行了检验,证明重建方程稳定,重建的年降水变化比较可靠,具有一定的代表性.在10a时间尺度上年降水经历了11个偏多和偏少时段,其中6(7)个显著的偏少(多)时段分别是1001-1060、1131-1320、1411-1510、1691-1740、1811-1850年和1911-1940年(961-1000、1061-1110、1321-1410、1511-1650、1741-1790、1881-1910年和1941-2000年).平均约53a发生一次突变,13-14世纪是年降水的多变时期,12、17和20世纪是年降水的相对稳定时段.     

Moisture budget variations in the Yangtze River Basin, China, and possible associations with large-scale circulation

We analyzed seasonal and annual variations of the whole layer atmospheric moisture budget and precipitation during 1961–2005 and their associations with large-scale circulation in the Yangtze River basin, China. The results indicated increasing moisture budget in summer and winter, but decreasing moisture budget in spring and autumn. Positive correlations between moisture budget and precipitation illustrate tremendous impacts the moisture budget has on the precipitation changes across the Yangtze River basin. In terms of seasonal variations, significant correlations were observed between precipitation and moisture budget in spring and autumn in the upper Yangtze River basin. Besides, we also analyzed changes of geopotential height. The positive trends of the geopotential height (850 hPa) were observed in the East Asia and the negative trends in the middle and west Pacific Ocean, indicating increasing geopotential height from south to north in east Asia which largely limited the moisture propagation to north China. While decreasing meridional geopotential height from west to east along the Yangtze River basin caused more moisture propagation from the west to the east parts of the study region, which may benefit more precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin.     

Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation maxima during 1960–2005 in the Yangtze River basin and possible association with large-scale circulation

This study investigated spatial and temporal patterns of trends of the precipitation maxima (defined as the annual/seasonal maximum precipitation) in the Yangtze River basin for 1960–2005 using Mann–Kendall trend test, and explored association of changing patterns of the precipitation maxima with large-scale circulation using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The research results indicate changes of precipitation maxima from relative stable patterns to the significant increasing/decreasing trend in the middle 1970s. With respect to annual variability, the rainy days are decreasing and precipitation intensity is increasing, and significant increasing trend of precipitation intensity was detected in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin. Number of rain days with daily precipitation exceeding 95th and 99th percentiles and related precipitation intensities are in increasing tendency in summer. Large-scale atmospheric circulation analysis indicates decreasing strength of East Asian summer monsoon during 1975–2005 as compared to that during 1961–1974 and increasing geopotential height in the north China, South China Sea and west Pacific regions, all of which combine to negatively impact the northward propagation of the vapor flux. This circulation pattern will be beneficial for the longer stay of the Meiyu front in the Yangtze River basin, leading to more precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin in summer months. The significant increasing summer precipitation intensity and changing frequency in the rain/no-rain days in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin have potential to result in higher occurrence probability of flood and drought hazards in the region.     

Prediction of variability of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin under the climate change conditions based on automated statistical downscaling

Many impact studies require climate change information at a finer resolution than that provided by general circulation models (GCMs). Therefore the outputs from GCMs have to be downscaled to obtain the finer resolution climate change scenarios. In this study, an automated statistical downscaling (ASD) regression-based approach is proposed for predicting the daily precipitation of 138 main meteorological stations in the Yangtze River basin for 2010–2099 by statistical downscaling of the outputs of general circulation model (HadCM3) under A2 and B2 scenarios. After that, the spatial–temporal changes of the amount and the extremes of predicted precipitation in the Yangtze River basin are investigated by Mann–Kendall trend test and spatial interpolation. The results showed that: (1) the amount and the change pattern of precipitation could be reasonably simulated by ASD; (2) the predicted annual precipitation will decrease in all sub-catchments during 2020s, while increase in all sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin during 2050s and during 2080s, respectively, under A2 scenario. However, they have mix-trend in each sub-catchment of Yangtze River basin during 2020s, but increase in all sub-catchments during 2050s and 2080s, except for Hanjiang River region during 2080s, as far as B2 scenario is concerned; and (3) the significant increasing trend of the precipitation intensity and maximum precipitation are mainly occurred in the northwest upper part and the middle part of the Yangtze River basin for the whole year and summer under both climate change scenarios and the middle of 2040–2060 can be regarded as the starting point for pattern change of precipitation maxima.     

1990s长江流域降水趋势分析

依据国家气象局提供的实测月降水和日降水资料,运用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验法验证了降水趋势,并通过空间插补法,由点扩展到面,分析了1990s长江流域降水变化特征,发现1990s长江流域降水变化以降水在时间和空间分布上的集中度的增加为主要特点:时间上,年降水的增加趋势以冬季1月和夏季6月降水的集中增加为主;一日降水量大于等于50mm的暴雨日数和暴雨量在1990s也有了较明显的增加.空间上,年降水、夏季降水、冬季降水的增加都以中下游区的增加为主,尤其以鄱阳湖水系、洞庭湖水系的降水增加为主.1990s长江流域春季和秋季降水的减少以5月和9月两个汛期月份的降水减少为主,除金沙江水系和洞庭湖水系等少数地区外,流域大部分地区降水呈减少趋势.上述1990s出现的降水趋势明显与近年来全球变暖背景下长江流域各地区不同的温度及水循环变异有关.     

青藏高原春季土壤湿度与我国长江流域夏季降水的联系及其可能机理

土壤湿度作为陆面过程的重要因子,对局地及邻近地区的大气环流和天气气候有重要影响.青藏高原的土壤湿度观测站点稀少,时间较短,鉴于此,本文使用经过部分观测站点检验的卫星反演数据,研究了春季高原土壤湿度的年际变化与后期夏季我国东部降水的联系和可能机理.结果表明:在全球变暖的背景下,高原土壤湿度总体呈现出显著增加的趋势,去除该线性趋势后,我们定义了一个高原土壤湿度指数TPSMI来定量表征高原土壤湿度的年际变化特征,发现表层、中层、深层的土壤湿度年际变率趋于一致,且春季土壤湿度与夏季土壤湿度显著相关(相关系数可达0.56).当TPSMI偏大时,即高原东部土壤湿度偏大,而西部偏小时,夏季在高原东部(西部)存在一个潜热(感热)热源,二者共同作用下,在对流层中高层从高原西部经我国大陆直至东北地区激发出一个气旋—反气旋—气旋波列,该波列呈相当正压结构,有利于东北冷涡的加强及冷空气向南爆发;与此同时,南亚高压加强东伸,西太副高西伸加强,低空南方暖湿气流与北方干冷气流在长江流域汇合,伴随着上升运动加强,从而有利于夏季长江流域降水增多;反之,当TPSMI偏小时,夏季长江流域降水减少.     

1961-2003年间鄱阳湖流域气候变化趋势及突变分析

本文利用1961-2003年间鄱阳湖流域14个气象站的气温、降水量、蒸发量等观测数据和8个主要水文站的流量数据,研究该时段内鄱阳湖流域的气候变化趋势、突变及其空间分布的差异．研究表明,鄱阳潮流域气温和降水均在1990年发生突变,继而呈现显著的上升趋势;在季节变化上,冬季平均气温在1986年发生突变,增温显著;夏季降水量和夏季暴雨频率均在1992年发生突变增加,暴雨频率增加是夏季降水量增加的主要原因;蒸发皿蒸发量和参照蒸散量均呈现显著下降趋势,该变化在夏季尤为明显．上述变化趋势均以1990s最为显著,这与长江流域气候变化趋势基本一致．在空间分布上,饶河水系、信江水系和赣江下游等气候变化更为显著．笔者认为,鄱阳湖流域气候变化在长江流域中比较突出．该流域1990s暖湿气候在加强;气温的升高、降水量和暴雨频率的增加以及蒸发量的下降强化了五河流量的增加趋势,由此可大致判定鄱阳湖流域气候变化与洪涝灾害之间可能存在的关系,这可为理解气候变化在该流域的响应和预测该流域未来可能的洪涝灾害提供依据．     

青藏高原湖泊表层沉积物中陆源正构烷烃氢同位素比值的气候意义

通过分析1961—2005年长江流域水汽收支的时空变化及环流特征,发现：1）长江流域春季、秋季、冬季和年均水汽收支下降,而夏季增加：长江上游除夏季外均变化显著,中下游则只有春季、夏季和秋季变化显著;2）长江中下游各季节及年水汽收支与降水的关系都通过了裎著性检验,其中夏季关系最好,而长江上游只有春季和秋季通过显著性检验;3）夏季长江流域水汽输送下降,但水汽收支却增加,可能与东亚夏季风减弱有关,而东亚夏季风的减弱可能与东亚大陆上空低层大气位势高度显著增强有关。     

Precipitation and hydrological variations and related associations with large‐scale circulation in the Poyang Lake basin,China

Long streamflow series and precipitation data are analysed in this study with aim to investigate changing properties of precipitation and associated impacts on hydrological processes of the Poyang Lake basin. Underlying causes behind the precipitation variations are also explored based on the analysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data. Besides, water intrusion from the Yangtze River to the Poyang Lake basin is studied. The results indicate that (1) seasonal transitions of precipitation are observed, showing increasing precipitation in winter, slight increase and even decrease of precipitation in summer; (2) analysis of water vapour circulation indicates decreasing/increasing water vapour flux in summer/winter; in winter, water vapour flux tends to be from the Pacific. Altered water vapour flux is the major cause behind the altered precipitation changes across the Poyang Lake basin and (3) occurrence of water intrusion from the Yangtze River to the Poyang Lake basin is heavily influenced by hydrological processes of the Poyang Lake basin. Effects of the hydrological processes from the middle Yangtze River on the occurrence of water intrusion events are not significant. The results of this study indicate that floods and droughts should share the same concerns from the scholars and policy makers. Besides, the altered hydrological circulation and associated seasonal transition of precipitation drive us to face new challenges in terms of conservations of wetlands and ecological environment under the changing climate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precipitation,temperature and runoff analysis from 1950 to 2002 in the Yangtze basin,China / Analyse des précipitations,températures et débits de 1950 à 2002 dans le bassin du Yangtze,en Chine

Abstract

Abstract Monthly precipitation and temperature trends of 51 stations in the Yangtze basin from 1950–2002 were analysed and interpolated. The Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to examine the monthly precipitation and temperature data. Significant positive and negative trends at the 90, 95 and 99% significance levels were detected. The monthly mean temperature, precipitation, summer precipitation and monthly mean runoff at Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations were analysed. The results indicate that spatial distribution of precipitation and temperature trends is different. The middle and lower Yangtze basin is dominated by upward precipitation trend but by somewhat downward temperature trend; while downward precipitation trend and upward temperature trend occur in the upper Yangtze basin. This is because increasing precipitation leads to increasing cloud coverage and, hence, results in decreasing ground surface temperature. Average monthly precipitation and temperature analysis for the upper, middle and lower Yangtze basin, respectively, further corroborate this viewpoint. Analysis of precipitation trend for these three regions and of runoff trends for the Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations indicated that runoff trends respond well to the precipitation trends. Historical flood trend analysis also shows that floods in the middle and lower Yangtze basin are in upward trend. The above findings indicate that the middle and lower Yangtze basin is likely to face more serious flood disasters. The research results help in further understanding the influence of climatic changes on floods in the Yangtze basin, providing scientific background for the flood control activities in large catchments in Asia.     

Characterizing the changing behaviours of precipitation concentration in the Yangtze River Basin,China

The statistical characteristics of precipitation on the daily resolution play an important role not only in the risk assessment of floods and droughts but also in the land use management. In this study, spatial and temporal patterns of the precipitation concentration in the Yangtze River Basin are investigated by using three indices, i.e. precipitation concentration index (CI), precipitation concentration degree (PCD) and precipitation concentration period (PCP). Based on meteorological data of 147 stations for the period of 1960–2008, non‐parametric trend analysis and wavelet transformation analysis are employed to detect the temporal variation of these indices. Spatial variability of precipitation concentration indices and their trends are analysed and demonstrated with the help of GIS tools. The results indicate the following: (i) The high precipitation CI values mainly distribute in the middle region of the Yangtze River Basin, whereas the lower and lowest CI values are found in the lower and upper regions, respectively. A roughly east–west gradient for PCD value and PCP value varies from 0.26 to 0.77 and from 123 to 197, respectively. (ii) The analysis results of precipitation CI trends for different periods (i.e. recent 40, 30 and 20 years) show that the middle region of the Yangtze River Basin experienced a transition from decreasing precipitation CI to increasing precipitation CI during the last two decades, although the decreasing long‐term trends in the precipitation CI are not significant in most areas during the period of 1960–2008. (iii) The upper basin, middle basin and lower basin are, respectively, dominated by the significant decreasing, increasing and no significant trends in PCD. A dominance of insignificant PCP trends is observed in the entire basin during 1960–2008 despite that a few areas in the upper region are characterized by significant decreasing trends. (iv) Interdecadal oscillations can be found for three precipitation indices, but with no constant periodicity. Furthermore, good positive correlations have been detected between precipitation CI and PCD, whereas insignificant correlation coefficients of PCP with precipitation are common in the basin. The results can provide beneficial reference to water resource and eco‐environment and mitigation to flood or drought hazards in the Yangtze River Basin for policymakers and stakeholders. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.