Modelling the 21-cm Signal from the Epoch of Reionization and Cosmic Dawn

Studying the cosmic dawn and the epoch of reionization through the redshifted 21-cm line are among the major science goals of the SKA1. Their significance lies in the fact that they are closely related to the very first stars in the Universe. Interpreting the upcoming data would require detailed modelling of the relevant physical processes. In this article, we focus on the theoretical models of reionization that have been worked out by various groups working in India with the upcoming SKA in mind. These models include purely analytical and semi-numerical calculations as well as fully numerical radiative transfer simulations. The predictions of the 21-cm signal from these models would be useful in constraining the properties of the early galaxies using the SKA data.     

Reionization and the large-scale 21-cm cosmic microwave background cross-correlation

Of the many probes of reionization, the 21-cm line and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) are among the most effective. We examine how the cross-correlation of the 21-cm brightness and the CMB Doppler fluctuations on large angular scales can be used to study this epoch. We employ a new model of the growth of large-scale fluctuations of the ionized fraction as reionization proceeds. We take into account the peculiar velocity field of baryons and show that its effect on the cross-correlation can be interpreted as a mixing of Fourier modes. We find that the cross-correlation signal is strongly peaked towards the end of reionization and that the sign of the correlation should be positive because of the inhomogeneity inherent to reionization. The signal peaks at degree scales (ℓ∼ 100) and comes almost entirely from large physical scales ( k ∼ 10⁻² Mpc). Since many of the foregrounds and noise that plague low-frequency radio observations will not correlate with CMB measurements, the cross-correlation might appear to provide a robust diagnostic of the cosmological origin of the 21-cm radiation around the epoch of reionization. Unfortunately, we show that these signals are actually only weakly correlated and that cosmic variance dominates the error budget of any attempted detection. We conclude that the detection of a cross-correlation peak at degree-size angular scales is unlikely even with ideal experiments.     

Probing the dark ages with the Square Kilometer Array

The epoch of reionization (EoR) sets a fundamental benchmark in cosmic structure formation, corresponding to the formation of the first luminous objects that act to ionize the neutral intergalactic medium (IGM). Recent observations at near-IR and radio wavelengths imply that we are finally probing into this key epoch of galaxy formation at z 6. The Square Kilometer Array (SKA) will provide critical insight into the EoR, in a number of ways. First, the ability of the SKA to image the neutral IGM in 21-cm emission is a truly unique probe of the process of reionization, and is recognized as the next necessary and fundamental step in our study of the evolution of large scale structure and cosmic reionization. Second, study of HI 21-cm absorption toward the first radio loud objects probes small to intermediate scale structure in the neutral ‘cosmic web’, as well as HI in the first collapsed structures (proto-disks and mini-halos). And third, the incomparable sensitivity of the SKA allows for the study of the molecular gas, dust, and star formation activity in the first galaxies, as well as the radio continuum emission from the first accreting massive black holes. Such objects will be obscured at optical wavelengths due to absorption by the neutral IGM.     

The impact of H i in galaxies on 21-cm intensity fluctuations during the reionization epoch

We investigate the impact of neutral hydrogen (H  i ) in galaxies on the statistics of 21-cm fluctuations using seminumerical modelling. Following the reionization of hydrogen, the H  i content of the Universe is dominated by damped absorption systems (DLAs), with a cosmic density in H  i that is observed to be constant at a level equal to ∼2 per cent of the cosmic baryon density from   z ∼ 1  to   z ∼ 5  . We show that extrapolation of this constant fraction into the reionization epoch results in a reduction in the amplitude of 21-cm fluctuations over a range of spatial scales. We further find that consideration of H  i in galaxies/DLAs reduces the prominence of the H  ii region induced shoulder in the 21-cm power spectrum (PS), and hence modifies the scale dependence of 21-cm fluctuations. We also estimate the 21-cm–galaxy cross PS and show that the cross PS changes sign on scales corresponding to the H  ii regions. From consideration of the sensitivity for forthcoming low-frequency arrays, we find that the effects of H  i in galaxies/DLAs on the statistics of 21-cm fluctuations will be significant with respect to the precision of a PS or cross PS measurement. In addition, since overdense regions are reionized first we demonstrate that the cross-correlation between galaxies and 21-cm emission changes sign at the end of the reionization era, providing an alternative avenue to pinpoint the end of reionization. The sum of our analysis indicates that the H  i content of the galaxies that reionize the universe will need to be considered in detailed modelling of the 21-cm intensity PS in order to correctly interpret measurements from forthcoming low-frequency arrays.     

Probing Individual Sources during Reionization and Cosmic Dawn using Square Kilometre Array HI 21-cm Observations

Detection of individual luminous sources during the reionization epoch and cosmic dawn through their signatures in the HI 21-cm signal is one of the direct approaches to probe the epoch. Here, we summarize our previous works on this and present preliminary results on the prospects of detecting such sources using the SKA1-low experiment. We first discuss the expected HI 21-cm signal around luminous sources at different stages of reionization and cosmic dawn. We then introduce two visibility based estimators for detecting such signals: one based on the matched filtering technique and the other relies on simply combing the visibility signal from different baselines and frequency channels. We find that the SKA1-low should be able to detect ionized bubbles of radius \(R_{\mathrm {b}} \gtrsim 10\) Mpc with ～100 h of observations at redshift z～8 provided that the mean outside neutral hydrogen fraction \(\mathrm {x}_{\text {HI}} \gtrsim 0.5\). We also investigate the possibility of detecting HII regions around known bright QSOs such as around ULASJ1120+0641 discovered by Mortlock et al. (Nature 474, 7353 (2011)). We find that a 5σ detection is possible with 600 h of SKA1-low observations if the QSO age and the outside x_HI are at least ～2×10⁷ Myr and ～0.2 respectively. Finally, we investigate the possibility of detecting the very first X-ray and Ly- α sources during the cosmic dawn. We consider mini-QSOs like sources which emits in X-ray frequency band. We find that with a total ～ 1000 h of observations, SKA1-low should be able to detect those sources individually with a ～ 9σ significance at redshift z=15. We summarize how the SNR changes with various parameters related to the source properties.     

Biased reionization and non-Gaussianity in redshifted 21-cm intensity maps of the reionization epoch

Spatial dependence in the statistics of redshifted 21-cm fluctuations promises to provide the most powerful probe of the reionization epoch. In this paper we consider the second and third moments of the redshifted 21-cm intensity distribution using a simple model that accounts for galaxy bias during the reionization process. We demonstrate that skewness in redshifted 21-cm maps should be substantial throughout the reionization epoch and on all angular scales, owing to the effects of galaxy bias which leads to early reionization in overdense regions of the intergalactic medium (IGM). The variance (or power spectrum) of 21-cm fluctuations will exhibit a minimum in redshift part way through the reionization process, when the global ionization fraction is around 50 per cent. This minimum is generic, and is due to the transition from 21-cm intensity being dominated by overdense to underdense regions as reionization progresses. We show that the details of the reionization history, including the presence of radiative feedback are encoded in the evolution of the autocorrelation and skewness functions with redshift and mean IGM neutral fraction. The amplitudes of fluctuations are particularly sensitive to the masses of ionizing sources, and vary by an order of magnitude for astrophysically plausible models. We discuss the detection of skewness by first-generation instruments, and conclude that the Mileura Wide-field Array–Low-Frequency Demonstrator will have sufficient sensitivity to detect skewness on a range of angular scales at redshifts near the end of reionization, while a subsequent instrument of 10 times the collecting area could map out the evolution of skewness in detail. The observation of a minimum in variance during the reionization history, and the detection of skewness would both provide important confirmation of the cosmological origin of redshifted 21-cm intensity fluctuations.     

The cross-correlation of the CMB polarization and the 21-cm line fluctuations from cosmic reionization

The cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization and the 21-cm line fluctuations are powerful probes of cosmological reionization. We study how the cross-correlation between the CMB polarization ( E modes) and the 21-cm line fluctuations can be used to gain further understanding of the reionization history, within the framework of inhomogeneous reionization. Since the E -mode polarization reflects the amplitude of the quadrupole component of the CMB temperature fluctuations, the angular power spectrum of the cross-correlation exhibits oscillations at all multipoles. The first peak of the power spectrum appears at the scale corresponding to the quadrupole at the redshift, which is probed by the 21-cm line fluctuations. The peak reaches its maximum value in redshift when the average ionization fraction of the universe is about half. On the other hand, on small scales, there is a damping that depends on the duration of reionization. Thus, the cross-correlation between the CMB polarization and the 21-cm line fluctuations has the potential to accurately constrain the epoch and the duration of reionization.     

Studying the sources of cosmic reionization with 21-cm fluctuations

We explore the ability of measurements of the 21-cm power spectrum during reionization to enable the simultaneous reconstruction of the reionization history and the properties of the ionizing sources. For various sets of simulated 21-cm observations, we perform maximum likelihood fits in order to constrain the reionization and galaxy formation histories. We employ a flexible six-parameter model that parametrizes the uncertainties in the properties of high-redshift galaxies. The computational speed needed is attained through the use of an analytical model that is in reasonable agreement with numerical simulations of reionization. We find that one-year observations, with the Murchison Widefield Array, should measure the cosmic ionized fraction to  ∼1 per cent  accuracy at the very end of reionization, and a few per cent accuracy around the mid-point of reionization. The mean halo mass of the ionizing sources should be measurable to 10 per cent accuracy when reionization is 2/3 of the way through, and to 20 per cent accuracy throughout the central stage of reionization, if this mass is anywhere in the range 1/3 to 100 billion solar masses.     

The difference PDF of 21-cm fluctuations: a powerful statistical tool for probing cosmic reionization

A new generation of radio telescopes are currently being built with the goal of tracing the cosmic distribution of atomic hydrogen at redshifts 6–15 through its 21-cm line. The observations will probe the large-scale brightness fluctuations sourced by ionization fluctuations during cosmic reionization. Since detailed maps will be difficult to extract due to noise and foreground emission, efforts have focused on a statistical detection of the 21-cm fluctuations. During cosmic reionization, these fluctuations are highly non-Gaussian and thus more information can be extracted than just the one-dimensional function that is usually considered, i.e. the correlation function. We calculate a two-dimensional function that if measured observationally would allow a more thorough investigation of the properties of the underlying ionizing sources. This function is the probability distribution function (PDF) of the difference in the 21-cm brightness temperature between two points, as a function of the separation between the points. While the standard correlation function is determined by a complicated mixture of contributions from density and ionization fluctuations, we show that the difference PDF holds the key to separately measuring the statistical properties of the ionized regions.     

Gravitational wave background from neutrino-driven gamma-ray bursts

We study cosmic microwave background (CMB) secondary anisotropies produced by inhomogeneous reionization by means of cosmological simulations coupled with the radiative transfer code crash . The reionization history is consistent with the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe Thomson optical depth determination. We find that the signal arising from this process dominates over the primary CMB component for   l ≳ 4000  and reaches a maximum amplitude of   l ( l + 1) C_l /2π≃ 1.6 × 10⁻¹³  on arcmin scales (i.e. l as large as several thousands). We then cross-correlate secondary CMB anisotropy maps with neutral hydrogen 21-cm line emission fluctuations obtained from the same simulations. The two signals are highly anticorrelated on angular scales corresponding to the typical size of H  ii regions (including overlapping) at the 21-cm map redshift. We show how the CMB/21-cm cross-correlation can be used: (i) to study the nature of the reionization sources; (ii) to reconstruct the cosmic reionization history; (iii) to infer the mean cosmic ionization level at any redshift. We discuss the feasibility of the proposed experiment with forthcoming facilities.     

Current models of the observable consequences of cosmic reionization and their detectability

A number of large current experiments aim to detect the signatures of the cosmic reionization at redshifts z > 6. Their success depends crucially on understanding the character of the reionization process and its observable consequences and designing the best strategies to use. We use large-scale simulations of cosmic reionization to evaluate the reionization signatures at redshifted 21-cm and small-scale cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies in the best current model for the background universe, with fundamental cosmological parameters given by Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe three-year results. We find that the optimal frequency range for observing the 'global step' of the 21-cm emission is 120–150 MHz, while statistical studies should aim at 140–160 MHz, observable by GMRT. Some strongly non-Gaussian brightness features should be detectable at frequencies up to ∼190 MHz. In terms of sensitivity-signal trade-off relatively low resolutions, corresponding to beams of at least a few arcminutes, are preferable. The CMB anisotropy signal from the kinetic Sunyaev–Zel'dovich effect from reionized patches peaks at tens of μK at arcminute scales and has an rms of ∼1 μK, and should be observable by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and the South Pole Telescope. We discuss the various observational issues and the uncertainties involved, mostly related to the poorly known reionization parameters and, to a lesser extend, to the uncertainties in the background cosmology.     

Detection and extraction of signals from the epoch of reionization using higher-order one-point statistics

Detecting redshifted 21-cm emission from neutral hydrogen in the early Universe promises to give direct constraints on the epoch of reionization (EoR). It will, though, be very challenging to extract the cosmological signal (CS) from foregrounds and noise which are orders of magnitude larger. Fortunately, the signal has some characteristics which differentiate it from the foregrounds and noise, and we suggest that using the correct statistics may tease out signatures of reionization. We generate mock data cubes simulating the output of the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) EoR experiment. These cubes combine realistic models for Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds and the noise with three different simulations of the CS. We fit out the foregrounds, which are smooth in the frequency direction, to produce residual images in each frequency band. We denoise these images and study the skewness of the one-point distribution in the images as a function of frequency. We find that, under sufficiently optimistic assumptions, we can recover the main features of the redshift evolution of the skewness in the 21-cm signal. We argue that some of these features – such as a dip at the onset of reionization, followed by a rise towards its later stages – may be generic, and give us a promising route to a statistical detection of reionization.     

21-cm fluctuations from inhomogeneous X-ray heating before reionization

Many models of early structure formation predict a period of heating immediately preceding reionization, when X-rays raise the gas temperature above that of the cosmic microwave background. These X-rays are often assumed to heat the intergalactic medium (IGM) uniformly, but in reality will heat the gas more strongly closer to the sources. We develop a framework for calculating fluctuations in the 21-cm brightness temperature that originate from this spatial variation in the heating rate. High-redshift sources are highly clustered, leading to significant gas temperature fluctuations (with fractional variations ∼40 per cent, peaking on   k ∼ 0.1 Mpc⁻¹  scales). This induces a distinctive peak-trough structure in the angle-averaged 21-cm power spectrum, which may be accessible to the proposed Square Kilometre Array. This signal reaches the ∼10 mK level, and is stronger than that induced by Lyα flux fluctuations. As well as probing the thermal evolution of the IGM before reionization, this 21-cm signal contains information about the spectra of the first X-ray sources. Finally, we consider disentangling temperature, density and Lyα flux fluctuations as functions of redshift.     

Imaging the cosmic matter distribution using gravitational lensing of pre-galactic H i

21-cm emission from neutral hydrogen during and before the epoch of cosmic reionization is gravitationally lensed by material at all lower redshifts. Low-frequency radio observations of this emission can be used to reconstruct the projected mass distribution of foreground material, both light and dark. We compare the potential imaging capabilities of such 21-cm lensing with those of future galaxy lensing surveys. We use the Millennium Simulation to simulate large-area maps of the lensing convergence with the noise, resolution and redshift-weighting achievable with a variety of idealized observation programmes. We find that the signal-to-noise ratio of 21-cm lens maps can far exceed that of any map made using galaxy lensing. If the irreducible noise limit can be reached with a sufficiently large radio telescope, the projected convergence map provides a high-fidelity image of the true matter distribution, allowing the dark matter haloes of individual galaxies to be viewed directly, and giving a wealth of statistical and morphological information about the relative distributions of mass and light. For instrumental designs like that planned for the Square Kilometre Array, high-fidelity mass imaging may be possible near the resolution limit of the core array of the telescope.     

Redshifted 21-cm observations of high-redshift quasar proximity zones

The introduction of low-frequency radio arrays is expected to revolutionize the study of the reionization epoch. Observation of the contrast in redshifted 21-cm emission between a large H  ii region and the surrounding neutral intergalactic medium (IGM) will be the simplest and most easily interpreted signature. However, the highest redshift quasars known are thought to reside in an ionized IGM. Using a semi-analytic model we describe the redshifted 21-cm signal from the IGM surrounding quasars discovered using the i -drop-out technique (i.e. quasars at   z ∼ 6  ). We argue that while quasars at   z < 6.5  seem to reside in the post-overlap IGM, they will still provide valuable probes of the late stages of the overlap era because the light-travel time across a quasar proximity zone should be comparable to the duration of overlap. For redshifted 21-cm observations within a 32-MHz bandpass, we find that the subtraction of a spectrally smooth foreground will not remove spectral features due to the proximity zone. These features could be used to measure the neutral hydrogen content of the IGM during the late stages of reionization. The density of quasars at   z ∼ 6  is now well constrained. We use the measured quasar luminosity function to estimate the prospects for discovery of high-redshift quasars in fields that will be observed by the Murchison Widefield Array.     

The radio environment of the 21 Centimeter Array:RFI detection and mitigation

Detection and mitigation of radio frequency interference(RFI) is the first and also the key step for data processing in radio observations, especially for ongoing low frequency radio experiments towards the detection of the cosmic dawn and epoch of reionization(Eo R). In this paper we demonstrate the technique and efficiency of RFI identification and mitigation for the 21 Centimeter Array(21CMA), a radio interferometer dedicated to the statistical measurement of Eo R. For terrestrial, man-made RFI, we concentrate mainly on a statistical approach by identifying and then excising non-Gaussian signatures, in the sense that the extremely weak cosmic signal is actually buried under thermal and therefore Gaussian noise. We also introduce the so-called visibility correlation coefficient instead of conventional visibility, which allows a further suppression of rapidly time-varying RFI. Finally, we briefly discuss removals of the sky RFI, the leakage of sidelobes from off-field strong radio sources with time-invariant power and a featureless spectrum. It turns out that state of the art technique should allow us to detect and mitigate RFI to a satisfactory level in present low frequency interferometer observations such as those acquired with the 21 CMA, and the accuracy and efficiency can be greatly improved with the employment of low-cost, high-speed computing facilities for data acquisition and processing.     

Modification of the 21-cm power spectrum by quasars during the epoch of reionization

We assess the effect of a population of high-redshift quasars on the 21-cm power spectrum during the epoch of reionization. Our approach is to implement a seminumerical scheme to calculate the three-dimensional structure of ionized regions surrounding massive haloes at high redshift. We include the ionizing influence of luminous quasars by populating a simulated overdensity field with quasars using a Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm. We find that quasars modify both the amplitude and shape of the power spectrum at a level which is of the same order as the fractional contribution to reionization. The modification is found both at constant redshift and at constant global neutral fraction, and arises because ionizing photons produced by quasars are biased relative to the density field at a level that is higher than stellar ionizing photons. The modification of the power spectrum is likely to be small, rendering the effect of quasars difficult to isolate. However, we find the modification of the power spectrum by quasars to be at a level that is comparable to the precision expected for future low-frequency telescopes. Correct interpretation of observations will therefore require the effect of quasars to be considered, and our results imply that quasar ionization will need to be included in detailed modelling of observed 21-cm power spectra.     

The 21-cm power spectrum after reionization

We discuss the 21-cm power spectrum (PS) following the completion of reionization. In contrast to the reionization era, this PS is proportional to the PS of mass density fluctuations, with only a small modulation due to fluctuations in the ionization field on scales larger than the mean-free-path of ionizing photons. We derive the form of this modulation, and demonstrate that its effect on the 21-cm PS will be smaller than 1 per cent for physically plausible models of damped Lyα systems. In contrast to the 21-cm PS observed prior to reionization, in which H  ii regions dominate the ionization structure, the simplicity of the 21-cm PS after reionization will enhance its utility as a cosmological probe by removing the need to separate the PS into physical and astrophysical components. As a demonstration, we consider the Alcock–Paczynski test and show that the next generation of low-frequency arrays could measure the angular distortion of the PS at the per cent level for   z ∼ 3–5  .     

How is the reionization epoch defined?

We study the effect of a prolonged epoch of reionization on the angular power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background. Typically reionization studies assume a sudden phase transition, with the intergalactic gas moving from a fully neutral to a fully ionized state at a fixed redshift. Such models are at odds, however, with detailed investigations of reionization, which favour a more extended transition. We have modified the code cmbfast to allow the treatment of more realistic reionization histories and applied it to data obtained from numerical simulations of reionization. We show that the prompt reionization assumed by cmbfast in its original form heavily contaminates any constraint derived on the reionization redshift. We find, however, that prompt reionization models give a reasonable estimate of the epoch at which the mean cosmic ionization fraction was ≈50 per cent, and provide a very good measure of the overall Thomson optical depth. The overall differences in the temperature (polarization) angular power spectra between prompt and extended models with equal optical depths are less than 1 per cent (10 per cent).     

Baryonic acoustic oscillations in 21-cm emission: a probe of dark energy out to high redshifts

Low-frequency observatories are currently being constructed with the goal of detecting redshifted 21-cm emission from the epoch of reionization. These observatories will also be able to detect intensity fluctuations in the cumulative 21-cm emission after reionization, from hydrogen in unresolved damped Lyα absorbers (such as gas-rich galaxies) down to a redshift z ∼ 3.5. The inferred power spectrum of 21-cm fluctuations at all redshifts will show acoustic oscillations, whose comoving scale can be used as a standard ruler to infer the evolution of the equation of state for the dark energy. We find that the first generation of low-frequency experiments (such as MWA or LOFAR) will be able to constrain the acoustic scale to within a few per cent in a redshift window just prior to the end of the reionization era, provided that foregrounds can be removed over frequency bandpasses of ≳8 MHz. This sensitivity to the acoustic scale is comparable to the best current measurements from galaxy redshift surveys, but at much higher redshifts. Future extensions of the first-generation experiments (involving an order of magnitude increase in the antennae number of the MWA) could reach sensitivities below 1 per cent in several redshift windows and could be used to study the dark energy in the unexplored redshift regime of 3.5 ≲ z ≲ 12. Moreover, new experiments with antennae designed to operate at higher frequencies would allow precision measurements (≲1 per cent) of the acoustic peak to be made at more moderate redshifts (1.5 ≲ z ≲ 3.5), where they would be competitive with ambitious spectroscopic galaxy surveys covering more than 1000 deg². Together with other data sets, observations of 21-cm fluctuations will allow full coverage of the acoustic scale from the present time out to z ∼ 12.