Climate and variability bias adjustment of climate model-derived winds for a southeast Australian dynamical wave model

Climate models are increasingly being used to force dynamical wind wave models in order to assess the potential climate change-driven variations in wave climate. In this study, an ensemble of wave model simulations have been used to assess the ability of climate model winds to reproduce the present-day (1981–2000) mean wave climate and its seasonal variability for the southeast coast of Australia. Surface wind forcing was obtained from three dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-3) global climate model (GCM) simulations (CSIRO Mk3.5, GFDLcm2.0 and GFDLcm2.1). The downscaling was performed using CSIRO’s cubic conformal atmospheric model (CCAM) over the Australian region at approximately 60-km resolution. The wind climates derived from the CCAM downscaled GCMs were assessed against observations (QuikSCAT and NCEP Re-analysis 2 (NRA-2) reanalyses) over the 1981–2000 period and were found to exhibit both bias in mean wind conditions (climate bias) as well as bias in the variance of wind conditions (variability bias). Comparison of the modelled wave climate with over 20 years of wave data from six wave buoys in the study area indicates that direct forcing of the wave models with uncorrected CCAM winds result in suboptimal wave hindcast. CCAM winds were subsequently adjusted for climate and variability bias using a bivariate quantile adjustment which corrects both directional wind components to align in distribution to the NRA-2 winds. Forcing of the wave models with bias-adjusted winds leads to a significant improvement of the hindcast mean annual wave climate and its seasonal variability. However, bias adjustment of the CCAM winds does not improve the ability of the model to reproduce the storm wave climate. This is likely due to a combination of storm systems tracking too quickly through the wave generation zone and the performance of the NRA-2 winds used as a benchmark in this study.     

Mixed extreme wave climate model for reanalysis databases

Hindcast or wave reanalysis databases (WRDB) constitute a powerful source with respect to instrumental records in the design of offshore and coastal structures, since they offer important advantages for the statistical characterization of wave climate variables, such as continuous long time records of significant wave heights, mean and peak periods, etc. However, reanalysis data is less accurate than instrumental records, making extreme data analysis derived from WRDB prone to under predict design return period values. This paper proposes a mixed extreme value model to deal with maxima, which takes full advantage of both (i) hindcast or wave reanalysis and (ii) instrumental records, reducing the uncertainty in its predictions. The resulting mixed model consistently merges the information given by both kinds of data sets, and it can be applied to any extreme value analysis distribution, such as generalized extreme value, peaks over threshold or Pareto–Poisson. The methodology is illustrated using both synthetically generated and real data, the latter taken from a given location on the northern Spanish coast.     

The wave climate of Liverpool Bay—observations and modelling

Directional wave measurements have been made in Liverpool Bay by means of wave buoys and acoustic instruments within the footprint of a phased-array high frequency (HF) radar system, which measures currents and waves. Several years of data have now been collected and are supplemented by an 11-year wave model hindcast. Wave parameters have been derived from the various instruments and compared: the directional waverider buoy is taken to provide the ground truth, confirming the good observations obtained from the ADCP; the HF radar wave data have a positive bias, while the model data have a negative bias. The variation of wave climate over various time-scales from seasonal and inter-annual to inter-decadal is examined. Significant wave–current interactions may occur in this area of shallow water and high tidal range and the measurements provide a good test of coupled hydrodynamic-wave models. The waves are mainly fetch-limited: largest events are due to depressions, which track across the UK from SW, generating westerly and WNW winds in the right rear quadrant. Hence, the future extreme wave events will be closely related to future North Atlantic storm tracks. Projections of 50-year return period wave heights differ between different instruments and model datasets. The future wave climate of Liverpool Bay is not expected to change much from the present day; although a slight increase in the severity of the most extreme events is projected, the frequency of extreme wind and wave events in general is slightly reduced. There is evidence for variability on decadal time-scales, with some correlation with the North Atlantic oscillation.     

Climate and extrema of ocean waves in the East China Sea

Wave climate plays an important role in the air-sea interaction over marginal seas. Extreme wave height provides fundamental information for various ocean engineering practices, such as hazard mitigation, coastal structure design, and risk assessment. In this paper, we implement a third generation wave model and conduct a high-resolution wave hindcast over the East China Sea to reconstruct a 15-year wave field from 1988 to 2002 for derivation of monthly mean wave parameters and analysis of extreme wave conditions. The numerical results of the wave field are validated through comparison with satellite altimetry measurements, low-resolution reanalysis, and the ocean wave buoy record. The monthly averaged wave height and wave period show seasonal variation and refined spatial patterns of surface waves in the East China Sea. The climatological significant wave height and mean wave period decrease from the open ocean in the southeast toward the continental area in the northwest, with the pattern generally following the bathymetry. Extreme analysis on the significant wave height at the buoy station indicates the hindcast data underestimate the extreme values relative to the observations. The spatial pattern of extreme wave height shows single peak emerges at the southwest of Ryukyu Island although a wind forcing with multi-core structure at the extreme is applied.     

Simulation of daily rainfall scenarios with interannual and multidecadal climate cycles for South Florida

Concerns about the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change have led to a closer examination of how climate varies in the long run, and how such variations may impact rainfall variations at daily to seasonal time scales. For South Florida in particular, the influences of the low-frequency climate phenomena, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), have been identified with aggregate annual or seasonal rainfall variations. Since the combined effect of these variations is manifest as persistent multi-year variations in rainfall, the question of modeling these variations at the time and space scales relevant for use with the daily time step-driven hydrologic models in use by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) has arisen. To address this problem, a general methodology for the hierarchical modeling of low- and high-frequency phenomenon at multiple rain gauge locations is developed and illustrated. The essential strategy is to use long-term proxies for regional climate to first develop stochastic scenarios for regional climate that include the low-frequency variations driving the regional rainfall process, and then to use these indicators to condition the concurrent simulation of daily rainfall at all rain gauges under consideration. A newly developed methodology, called Wavelet Autoregressive Modeling (WARM), is used in the first step after suitable climate proxies for regional rainfall are identified. These proxies typically have data available for a century to four centuries so that long-term quasi-periodic climate modes of interest can be identified more reliably. Correlation analyses with seasonal rainfall in the region are used to identify the specific proxies considered as candidates for subsequent conditioning of daily rainfall attributes using a Non-homogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM). The combined strategy is illustrated for the May–June–July (MJJ) season. The details of the modeling methods and results for the MJJ season are presented in this study.     

A study of dissipation of wind-waves by mud at Cassino Beach,Brazil: Prediction and inversion

The impact of a non-rigid seafloor on the wave climate at Cassino Beach, Brazil, May–June 2005 is studied using field measurements and a numerical wave model. The measurements consist of wave data at four locations; rheology and mud thickness from grab samples; and an estimate of the horizontal distribution of mud based on echo-soundings. The dissipation of waves by a non-rigid bottom is represented in the wave model by treating the mud layer as a viscous fluid. Applied for 431 time periods, the model without this type of dissipation has a strong tendency to overpredict nearshore wave energy, except during a period of large storm waves. Two model variations which include this dissipation have a modest tendency to underpredict the nearshore wave energy. An inversion methodology is developed and applied to infer an alternate mud distribution which, when used with the wave model, yields the observed waveheights.     

Wave climate simulation for southern region of the South China Sea

This study investigates long-term variability and wave characteristic trends in the southern region of the South China Sea (SCS). We implemented the state-of-the art WAVEWATCH III spectral wave model to simulate a 31-year wave hindcast. The simulation results were used to assess the inter-annual variability and long-term changes in the SCS wave climate for the period 1979 to 2009. The model was forced with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis winds and validated against altimeter data and limited available measurements from an Acoustic Wave and Current recorder located offshore of Terengganu, Malaysia. The mean annual significant wave height and peak wave period indicate the occurrence of higher wave heights and wave periods in the central SCS and lower in the Sunda shelf region. Consistent with wind patterns, the wave direction also shows southeasterly (northwesterly) waves during the summer (winter) monsoon. This detailed hindcast demonstrates strong inter-annual variability of wave heights, especially during the winter months in the SCS. Significant wave height correlated negatively with Niño3.4 index during winter, spring and autumn seasons but became positive in the summer monsoon. Such correlations correspond well with surface wind anomalies over the SCS during El Nino events. During El Niño Modoki, the summer time positive correlation extends northeastwards to cover the entire domain. Although significant positive trends were found at 95 % confidence levels during May, July and September, there is significant negative trend in December covering the Sunda shelf region. However, the trend appears to be largely influenced by large El Niño signals.     

Weather and seasonal climate prediction for flood planning in the Yangtze River Basin

This paper describes the use of numerical weather and climate models for predicting severe rainfall anomalies over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) from several days to several months in advance. Such predictions are extremely valuable, allowing time for proactive flood protection measures to be taken. Specifically, the dynamical climate prediction system (IAP DCP-II), developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP), is applied to YRB rainfall prediction and flood planning. IAP DCP-II employs ensemble prediction with dynamically conditioned perturbations to reduce the uncertainty associated with seasonal climate prediction. IAP DCP-II was shown to successfully predict seasonal YRB summer flooding events based on a 15-year (1980–1994) hindcast experiment and the real-time prediction of two summer flooding events (1999 and 2001). Finally, challenges and opportunities for applying seasonal dynamical forecasting to flood management problems in the YRB are discussed.     

Long-term statistics of potentially hazardous sea states in the North Sea 1958–2014

Significant wave height and mean wave period are two of the most commonly used parameters to describe wave climate, wave climate variability, and their potential long-term changes. While these parameters are generally useful to characterize the distribution of waves within a given sea state, they provide less information about potentially high-risk situations. Over the recent years, a number of criteria were suggested that are considered to better characterize high-risk situations and which could bear a potential for the development of safety warning indices. Based on a multi-decadal high-resolution wind-wave hindcast, a climatology of such parameters is developed for the North Sea covering the years 1958–2014. More specifically, average conditions, inter-annual variability and long-term changes for unusually steep, rapidly developing and crossing sea states are considered. Generally, there are pronounced spatial variations in the frequency of such sea states, while over time, there is some seasonal and inter-annual variability but no substantial long-term trend could be identified.     

Calibration of rainfall-runoff models in ungauged basins: A regional maximum likelihood approach

Parameter estimation for rainfall-runoff models in ungauged basins is a challenging task that is receiving significant attention by the scientific community. In fact, many practical applications suffer from problems induced by data scarcity, given that hydrological observations are often sparse or unavailable. This study focuses on regional calibration for a generic rainfall-runoff model. The maximum likelihood function in the spectral domain proposed by Whittle [40] is approximated in the time domain by maximising the fit of selected statistics of the river flow process, with the aim to propose a calibration procedure that can be applied at regional scale. Accordingly, the statistics above are related to the dominant climate and catchment characteristics, through regional regression relationships. The proposed technique is applied to the case study of 4 catchments located in central Italy, which are treated as ungauged and are located in a region where detailed hydrological, as well as geomorphologic and climatic information, is available. The results obtained with the regional calibration are compared with those provided by a classical least squares calibration in the time domain. The outcomes of the analysis confirm the potential of the proposed methodology and show that regional information can be very effective for setting up hydrological models.     

Near-surface attenuation modelling based on rock shear-wave velocity profile

In a previous study published in this journal, the authors developed a comprehensive methodology for modelling the shear wave velocity profile in crustal rock, for purposes of seismic hazard assessment. The derived shear wave velocity profile was used to estimate the amplification and attenuation mechanisms in the transmission of seismic waves. The ability to conduct seismic hazard assessments in regions of low and moderate seismicity is greatly enhanced by this new modelling approach, given that developing a local attenuation model based on curve-fitting strong motion data is generally not feasible under such conditions. This paper reports a follow-up study conducted to evaluate the significance of near-surface attenuation in bedrock (as distinct from attenuation in unconsolidated soft soil sediments). The κ parameter is used to characterize the extent of this attenuation mechanism. Empirical correlations of κ with two forms of near-surface shear wave velocity parameter in crustal rock have been developed, employing information obtained from global sources in conjunction with that from local studies. The resulting development of two simple equations to predict median values of κ as functions of readily available shear wave velocity parameters represents the key outcome of this study. Applications of the proposed empirical approaches to determine κ have been provided, taking Hong Kong and Melbourne as case studies to illustrate different aspects of the proposed methodology. Consistency between the results obtained by the two recommended approaches has thereby been demonstrated.     

A comparison of acoustic turbulence profiling techniques in the presence of waves

In order to measure turbulent quantities in coastal waters, one must either avoid or confront the confounding effect of waves. In previous work, we have developed a method to cancel waves when using the variance technique to compute Reynolds stress from acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) data. In this paper, we extend this wave cancellation methodology to measurements of turbulent kinetic energy and dissipation using velocities measured along a single acoustic beam. Velocity profiles were collected using a Teledyne/RDI 1,200 kHz ADCP and a Nortek AWAC. The AWAC has a vertical beam that was programmed by Nortek to deliver profiles of vertical velocity. Vertical velocities are desirable both because they eliminate sources of phase error in the wave cancellation procedure and because they constrain measurement uncertainty with respect to turbulent anisotropy. Results indicate that acoustic profiles taken in standard Doppler mode, to which the vertical beam of the AWAC was limited, were too noisy to resolve turbulence under the deployment conditions herein. Pulse-to-pulse coherent modes such as those available on the ADCP were sufficiently low noise to resolve turbulent signals; however, vertical beam data are not available for this device. Nevertheless, our wave cancellation methodology was successful in removing the overwhelming variance associated with waves from both instruments, allowing realistic estimates of Reynolds stress, turbulent kinetic energy, and dissipation from the ADCP. This method holds even more promise as low-noise operating modes are developed for vertical beam acoustic profiling instruments such as the AWAC.     

多波多分量高斯束叠前深度偏移

本文对基于弹性波动理论的多波多分量高斯束偏移进行了完整且详细的分析和公式推导,实现了3D空间多分量(矢量)波场的直接成像.由于当前多数基于弹性波动方程的偏移方法只是假设应力边界条件为自由地表边界条件,这种假设不符合垂直地震剖面(VSP)和海底电缆(OBC)等地震数据.为此本文详细分析了实际应用中常见的三种弹性各向同性介质模型的应力边界条件:自由空间、海底和自由地表模型.在上行传播假设情况下,获得了应力边界条件与位移边界条件的关系式.在此基础上,准确推导了3D多波多分量高斯束波场延拓和偏移成像公式,并在偏移过程中实现了完整的多波型自动分离.由于常规的互相关成像条件不适用于矢量波场成像,本文引用了散度/旋度互相关成像条件.通过约定PS转换波的正向旋转方向解决了3D空间PS成像极性翻转问题.利用2D和3D模型数据偏移成像验证了我们所提出的多波多分量高斯束偏移方法的可行性.     

Source term balance in a severe storm in the Southern North Sea

This paper presents the results of a wave hindcast of a severe storm in the Southern North Sea to verify recently developed deep and shallow water source terms. The work was carried out in the framework of the ONR funded NOPP project (Tolman et al. 2013) in which deep and shallow water source terms were developed for use in third-generation wave prediction models. These deep water source terms for whitecapping, wind input and nonlinear interactions were developed, implemented and tested primarily in the WAVEWATCH III model, whereas shallow water source terms for depth-limited wave breaking and triad interactions were developed, implemented and tested primarily in the SWAN wave model. So far, the new deep-water source terms for whitecapping were not fully tested in shallow environments. Similarly, the shallow water source terms were not yet tested in large inter-mediate depth areas like the North Sea. As a first step in assessing the performance of these newly developed source terms, the source term balance and the effect of different physical settings on the prediction of wave heights and wave periods in the relatively shallow North Sea was analysed. The December 2013 storm was hindcast with a SWAN model implementation for the North Sea. Spectral wave boundary conditions were obtained from an Atlantic Ocean WAVEWATCH III model implementation and the model was driven by hourly CFSR wind fields. In the southern part of the North Sea, current and water level effects were included. The hindcast was performed with five different settings for whitecapping, viz. three Komen type whitecapping formulations, the saturation-based whitecapping by Van der Westhuysen et al. (2007) and the recently developed ST6 whitecapping as described by Zieger et al. (2015). Results of the wave hindcast were compared with buoy measurements at location K13 collected by the Dutch Ministry of Transport and Public Works. An analysis was made of the source term balance at three locations, the deep water location North Cormorant, the inter-mediate depth location K13 and at location Wielingen, a shallow water location close to the Dutch coast. The results indicate that at deep water the source terms for wind input, whitecapping and nonlinear four-wave interactions are of the same magnitude. At the inter-mediate depth location K13, bottom friction plays a significant role, whereas at the shallow water location Wielingen also depth-limited wave breaking becomes important.     

Simulation of irregular waves in an offshore wind farm with a spectral wave model

A numerical study of irregular waves in the Norwegian continental shelf wind farm (HAVSUL-II) was conducted using 3rd generation spectral wave models. The study was composed of two parts: the study of the effect of a single windmill monopile in the local incoming wave field using an empirical JONSWAP spectrum, and a wave hindcast study in the wind farm area using realistic incoming wave spectra obtained from large scale simulations for the 1991-1992 winter period. In the single windmill monopile study the SWAN wave model was used, while the hindcast study was conducted by successively nesting from a coarse grid using the WAM model up to a high-resolution (56 m) grid covering 26.2 km² of the HAVSUL-II windmill farm using the SWAN model. The effect of a single monopile on incident waves with realistic spectra was also studied. In the single windmill study the monopile was represented as a closed circular obstacle and in the hindcast study it was represented as a dry grid point. The results showed that the single windmill monopile creates a shadow zone in the down wave region with lower significant wave height (H_s) values and a slight increase of H_s in the up wave region. The effects of the windmill monopile on the wave field were found to be dependent on the directional distribution of the incoming wave spectrum and also on the wave diffraction and reflection. The hindcast study showed that the group of windmill monopiles may contribute to the reduction of the wave energy inside the offshore wind farm and that once the waves enter into the offshore wind farm they experience modifications due to the presence of the windmill monopiles, which cause a blocking of the wave energy propagation resulting in an altered distribution of the H_s field.     

Future evolution of a tidal inlet due to changes in wave climate, Sea level and lagoon morphology (Óbidos lagoon, Portugal)

Tidal inlets are extremely dynamic, as a result of an often delicate balance between the effects of tides, waves and other forcings. Since the morphology of these inlets can affect navigation, water quality and ecosystem dynamics, there is a clear need to anticipate their evolution in order to promote adequate management decisions. Over decadal time scales, the position and size of tidal inlets are expected to evolve with the conditions that affect them, for instance as a result of climate change. A process-based morphodynamic modeling system is validated and used to analyze the effects of sea level rise, an expected shift in the wave direction and the reduction of the upper lagoon surface area by sedimentation on a small tidal inlet (Óbidos lagoon, Portugal). A new approach to define yearly wave regimes is first developed, which includes a seasonal behavior, random inter-annual variability and the possibility to extrapolate trends. Once validated, this approach is used to produce yearly time series of wave spectra for the present and for the end of the 21st century, considering the local rotation trends computed using hindcast results for the past 57 years. Predictions of the mean sea level for 2100 are based on previous studies, while the bathymetry of the upper lagoon for the same year is obtained by extrapolation of past trends. Results show, and data confirm, that the Óbidos lagoon inlet has three stable configurations, largely determined by the inter-annual variations in the wave characteristics. Both sea level rise and the reduction of the lagoon surface area will promote the accretion of the inlet. In contrast, the predicted rotation of the wave regime, within foreseeable limits, will have a negligible impact on the inlet morphology.     

Intermittent chaos in nonlinear wave–wave interactions in space plasmas

There is increasing observational evidence of nonlinear wave–wave interactions in space and astrophysical plasmas. We first review a number of theoretical models of nonlinear wave–wave interactions which our group has developed in the past years. We next describe a nonlinear three-mode truncated model of Alfvén waves, involving resonant interactions of one linearly unstable mode and two linearly damped modes. We construct a bifurcation diagram for this three-wave model and investigate the phenomenon of intermittent chaos. The theoretical results presented in this paper can improve our understanding of intermittent time series frequently observed in space and astrophysical plasmas.     

Oblique wave scattering by undulating porous bottom in a two-layer fluid: Fourier transform approach

The problem involving scattering of oblique waves by small undulation on the porous ocean bed in a two-layer fluid is investigated within the framework of linearised theory of water waves where the upper layer is free to the atmosphere. In such a two-layer fluid, there exist waves with two different wave numbers (modes): wave with lower wave number propagates along the free surface whilst that with higher wave number propagates along the interface. When an oblique incident wave of a particular mode encounters the undulating bottom, it gets reflected and transmitted into waves of both modes so that some of the wave energy transferred from one mode to another mode. Perturbation analysis in conjunction with Fourier transform technique is used to derive the first-order corrections of velocity potentials, reflection and transmission coefficients at both modes due to oblique incident waves of both modes. One special type of undulating bottom topography is considered as an example to evaluate the related coefficients in detail. These coefficients are shown in graphical forms to demonstrate the transformation of water wave energy between the two modes. Comparisons between the present results with those in the literature are made for particular cases and the agreements are found to be satisfactory. In addition, energy identity, an important relation in the study of water wave theory, is derived with the help of the Green’s integral theorem.     

Hindcasting multidecadal predevelopment groundwater levels in the Floridan aquifer

Establishing predevelopment benchmark groundwater conditions is challenging without long-term records to discern impacts of pumping and climate change on aquifer levels. Understanding periodic natural cycles and trends require 100 years or more data which rarely exist. Using limited records, we develop an approach to hindcast multidecadal levels and examine the temporal evolution of climatic and pumping impacts. The methodology includes a wavelet-aided statistical model, constrained by temporal scales of physical processes responsible for groundwater level variation, including rainfall, evapotranspiration and pumping stresses. The model and hindcasts are tested at three sites in Florida using traditional split calibration-verification methods for the period of record and with the documented historical drought and wet years for the period of no-record. The pumping impact is quantified over time and compared with regional groundwater models, revealing that withdrawals are responsible for 30 to 70% of the declines in levels since 1960s. Hindcasting yielding 110 years of monthly levels is used to assess the effect of climate change and pumping on the frequency of critical low levels. At all three sites, the frequencies of critical low levels increase significantly in the 1960 to 2015 period when compared to the 1904 to 1959 period. For example, at site 1, the return period of the critical low level is shortened by 3.9 years due to climate change and 2.2 years due to pumping.