An examination of rip current fatalities in the United States

This study analyzes fatalities caused by rip currents in the conterminous United States for the period 1994–2007. Results include the frequency of fatalities from rip currents, their cause, and their unique spatial distributions. An analysis of historical hazard event data illustrate that, on average, 35 people reportedly die from rip currents each year in the United States. Also, similar to other hazard events where unique differences in gender vulnerability have been found, men are over six times more likely to fall victim to a deadly rip current than females. Rip current fatalities are most common in the southeastern United States, with a nonuniform spatial distribution along other Atlantic, Pacific, and Great Lakes coastlines. Physical vulnerabilities are suggested as the primary cause for the unique fatality distribution found. Temporally, summer season weekends are shown to have the more fatalities than any other time of the year. A classification scheme was developed to categorize synoptic-scale weather conditions present during deadly rip current events. More than 70% of all rip current fatalities are associated with onshore winds. Specifically, a rip current fatality is most likely when a surface high pressure system creates these onshore winds. The quality of the fatality reporting database available for researchers is also assessed.     

Ability of beach users to identify rip currents at Pensacola Beach, Florida

Quasi-permanent rip current hot spots at Pensacola Beach, Florida, pose a significant hazard to beach users, largely because the hot spots are located at or close to the primary access points. While an increase in the number of lifeguards has led to a decrease in the number of drownings since 2004, the number of rescues and contacts has increased to over a 30,000 year. Despite warning signs at access points along the beach, it is not clear whether beach users are able to identify a rip channel or an active rip current. To assess beach users’ knowledge of rip currents and their ability to identify rip channels and currents, 97 surveys were conducted between June and September of 2010 at Pensacola Beach. Beach users were asked to identify rip channels in oblique photographs taken on green, yellow and red flag days when the potential for rip currents is low, medium and high, respectively. A majority of participants suggested that they could identify a rip channel or current (if present), but less than 20 % of beach users were able to identify the rip channels and currents. The majority of participants identified heavy surf areas as the location of the rips versus the relatively flat water of the current or the darker color water of the channel. Results further suggest that most beach users, and particularly local participants, are overconfident in their ability to identify rip channels and currents. The focus of beach users on heavy surf as an indication of the rip current potential and the overconfidence in identifying a rip channel or current affects the spatial distribution of beach users and to some degree the location of rescues and drownings. While it can be quite difficult for the average beach user to identify rip channels and active rip currents, the results of the study suggest a need for further education efforts to reduce the rip hazard, particularly in areas where lifeguards are not permanently stationed.     

Alongshore variation in the rip current hazard at Pensacola Beach, Florida

Many drowning and near drownings at Pensacola Beach, Florida are attributed to rip currents, the strong seaward-flowing currents that extend from the shoreline to the line of breakers and sometimes beyond. While surf forecasts assume that the rip hazard is uniform alongshore and that the (erosion) rips are ephemeral features, evidence is presented to suggest that the rip hazard at Pensacola Beach is not uniform alongshore. Rather the rip current “hotspots” develop as a consequence of an alongshore variation in the surf similarity parameter and nearshore state on the order of ~1,450 m. The variation is forced by transverse ridges on the inner shelf that force wave refraction and focusing at the ridge crests. This creates a more dissipative, rhythmic bar and beach morphology at the ridges and rougher surf. Between ridges, where wave heights and periods are smaller and the outermost bar is forced closer to the shoreline, the nearshore is in a (more reflective) bar and rip state during red flag conditions. Drownings between 2000 and 2009 are shown to be clustered between transverse ridges and in the years following a hurricane or tropical storm (2000–2003 and 2005–2008) when the bar and rip morphology first develops as the shore face recovers. This continues until the innermost bar attaches to the beach face unless the bar system is reset by another tropical storm or hurricane. It is argued that the rip hazard is dependent on the alongshore covariation of the environmental forcing with the individual and group behavior in both time and space, even on what appears to be a relatively uniform beach environment.     

Active hydrothermal fluids circulation triggering small-scale collapse events: the case of the 2001–2002 fissure in the Lakki Plain (Nisyros Island,Aegean Sea,Greece)

Rip currents are fast moving, offshore flows that have the ability to move even the strongest swimmers into deeper waters. Miami Beach, Florida is one of the most visited beaches in the USA and a sought after destination for citizens and international tourists alike. It is also known to be a rip current “hot spot.” These factors greatly increase the risk of drowning; however, no previous research has focused on beachgoer perception of rip-related risks in South Florida. Over a 12-month period, 203 public surveys were collected to determine the rip current knowledge of beachgoers at Miami Beach based on factors such as swimming ability and frequency of beach visits. The responses were analyzed by constructing a normalized component factor to determine the respondent’s comprehensive knowledge of rips, and multiple regression models were used to assess the net influences of sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics on the responses. A significant proportion of the survey respondents showed insufficient knowledge, indicating they are at risk of drowning in a rip current. Frequent beachgoer’s exposure to the beach environment, maturation, and nativity is identified as the main contributors to knowledge net of other sociodemographic compositions. The most at-risk groups were determined to be young adults, foreign tourists, poor swimmers, and those who infrequently visited the beach. Miami Beach needs to initiate a rip current safety campaign to target these at-risk beachgoers, where interventions beyond familial and educational institutions should be introduced.     

Can the visualization of rip currents prevent drowning accidents? Consideration of the effect of optimism bias

Drowning accidents at beach in Japan are caused by rip currents. To reduce these accidents, a new technology that can detect rip currents and notify beachgoers by using the Internet of Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) was proposed. However, studies on the effect of visualizing rip currents or considering the effect of optimism bias have not been conducted. This study investigates if visualization of rip currents might help in preventing drowning accidents, while considering the effect of optimism bias. The participants were 90 Japanese beachgoers. They were asked to answer questions based on their knowledge of the beach and rip currents, their optimism bias regarding rip currents, and awareness with or without visualization. The results of the analyses suggest that despite optimism bias, the visualization of rip currents increases the tendency of beachgoers to perceive and avoid rip currents. As described above, it was found that by visualizing the rip current, beachgoers were able to perceive and avoid rip currents. In addition, an understanding of rip currents is positively related to the intent to avoid rip currents even when rip currents are visualized. Therefore, it is necessary not only to enhance the avoidance tendency by visualizing rip currents, but also to further enhance knowledge of beachgoers to deepen the understanding of rip currents including the danger associated and methods to avoid them.

     

Flood events, fatalities and damages in India from 1978 to 2006

High temporal and spatial variability of rainfall qualifies India to be highly vulnerable to floods. Recurring floods of various magnitudes play havoc with the lives and property of the people, leading to unplanned development and unchecked environmental degradation, thwarting and retarding the overall development of the country. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to analyze the types and trends in terms of flood events, frequency, number of people killed, injured, missing and economic damage both in space and time on the basis of a nationwide database published by India Meteorological Department, Pune, from 1978 to 2006. Analysis of these long-term data has revealed that 2,443 flood events claimed about 44,991 lives with the average of 1,551 lives each year. In terms of population size, these figures translate into a loss of 1.5 human lives per million of the population. A majority (56 %) of flood fatalities were caused during severe flood events. However, the frequency of these events was just 19 % in comparison with heavy rainfall events (65 %). In spatial context, flood-related fatalities are distributed all over the country with highest fatalities in Uttar Pradesh (17 %), Maharashtra (13 %), and Bihar and Gujarat (10 % each). Most fatalities occurred during the summer season monsoon months of August (30 %) followed by July (29 %) and September (20 %). The country suffered a cumulative flood-related economic loss of about 16 billion US$ between 1978 and 2006 and a maximum economic loss of 1.6 billion US$ in the year 2000 alone. The study further suggests that both flood events and fatalities have increased in India over a period of time.     

A study on reflection pattern of swells from the shoreline of peninsular India

Information on reflected surface gravity waves from the shoreline is required for understanding the coastal hydrodynamics. We have quantified the reflected swells (frequency band 0.045–0.12 Hz) from the west and east coast of India based on the spectral wave data derived from the directional waverider buoys. Reflection coefficient, ratio of the reflected and incident spectral energy, was used to quantify the reflected waves. Influence of the seasons, cyclone, relative depth, land/sea breeze, tides and tidal current on the reflected waves were examined. For the locations off the west coast of India, seasons have large impact on the reflection coefficient and were relatively less during the monsoon season due to the increase in incident wave energy. Locations off the east coast of India show almost the same reflection coefficient throughout the year and have no significant seasonal variations. The reflection coefficient off Puducherry was higher than that for other locations due to the low incident wave energy. The reflection coefficient was low during the cyclone period, but the reflected energy during cyclone was higher than that during the normal condition due to the high incident wave energy. High-energy reflected waves show large variation with tide due to the trapping and dissipation of reflected wave by bottom friction and this effect cause low reflection in deep water location than shallow water location. The reflection coefficient decreases with increase in relative depth off west coast of India.     

Rip currents as a geological tool

This paper considers the nature and sedimentary significance of rip currents. Rip currents are the main factor responsible for the transport of coarse sediments from the littoral zone to greater depths. Such sediments, deposited outside the zone of wave deformation, may be identified as storm rip current increments within sediments deposited during fair weather. Composite beds deposited during a given wave cycle by storm rip currents are closely similar to ‘turbidites’ and many so called ‘fluxo-turbidites’ described from flysch deposits. Using data gathered in studies conducted on the modern Baltic coast, supplemented by experimental work and theoretical considerations, a sedimentary model is proposed. The model may be used to interpret possible rip current deposits among shallow water ‘turbidites’, and both modern storm sediments and ancient ‘tempestites’.     

On the swimming strategies to escape a rip current: a mathematical approach

Rip currents represent significant hazards to swimmers all around the world. The danger arises when a misinformed swimmer uses an inadequate strategy to escape the rip, such as fighting the current directly. This can lead to fatigue, panic, and in some cases drowning. There exists a range of strategies put forward by experts (both lifeguards and scientists) to escape rip currents. However, these recommendations are based on a limited number of scientific studies and there is still much discrepancy surrounding the best strategy to escape a rip. Thus, here we present a simple, physics-based theoretical model aimed at assessing different escape strategies in terms of their associated ‘energetic cost’ (in work and power) for any given rip current and swimmer’s proficiency level. Many combinations of swimmers and rips are considered, including both idealised and a realistic rip current. Our quantitative results back the common knowledge that swimming against the rip (which is strongly discouraged by lifeguards) is almost universally the worst possible strategy, especially when compared against strategies favoured by experts, such as floating with the current before attempting to swim back to the shore. For a realistic rip, our results suggest that swimming directly against the rip can require several times more power from the swimmer than other strategies advised by lifeguards, thus lending further scientific support to experts’ recommendations. This study may help promote education around the dangers posed by rip currents and how best to address them.

     

Perception of the rip current hazard on Galveston Island and North Padre Island,Texas, USA

The hazard posed by a rip current depends in part on the ability of beach users to identify a rip current and to associate surf conditions with the potential for rip currents. Understanding which visual features beach users associated with rip currents is an important step in the development of appropriate programs and educational materials aimed at improving the ability of beach users to identify a rip current. A face-to-face survey (n = 392) was conducted to assess the ability of beach users to identify a rip current using five near eye-level photographs that simulate the view of the beach and surf zone as the respondent approached the beach. The survey was conducted on three heavily used public beaches in Texas (Galveston, Port Aransas, and Corpus Christi) at the height of the summer beach season in 2012. Only 13 % of respondents correctly selected the photograph showing the most hazardous conditions and correctly identified the precise location of the rip current on the photograph. The majority of beach users (87 %) incorrectly indicated that the photograph with the heaviest surf represented the most hazardous surf conditions and greatest potential for the development of rip currents, or failed to identify rip currents in photographs. Respondents who were able to correctly identify the rip current tended to recognize the breaking wave pattern, areas of darker water, or the proximity to structures as key visual characteristics of rip currents and also had higher self-reported abilities to swim in rough water and escape a rip current.     

平直沙坝海岸叠加波浪的裂流试验

为研究叠加波浪场的裂流特征,在平直沙坝海岸地形进行了叠加波浪形成的沿岸波高周期性变化的裂流试验研究。试验中叠加波浪是由波浪在垂直岸线的丁坝反射所形成的两列交叉波浪叠加产生,交叉波浪是具有等频率但入射角相反的两波列。通过对叠加波浪节腹点垂直岸线位置浪高的测量和沙坝范围内沿岸布置的声学多普勒测速仪流速测量结果来分析沙坝海岸丁坝反射波形成的裂流特性,讨论了波浪节腹点对裂流位置和裂流空间尺度的影响。对不同周期情况在x=5 m沙坝顶处的速度剖面对比,分析了不同周期对裂流的影响。     

Trends in seasonal temperatures over the Indian region

An investigation has been carried out to identify the trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures and temperature range over the Indian land mass during the winter (January, and February), pre-monsoon (March–May), southwest monsoon (June–September) and post-monsoon (October–December) seasons by using high resolution daily gridded data set prepared by India Meteorological Department for the period of 1969–2005. It has been observed that the maximum temperatures over the west coast of India show rising trend in winter, southwest monsoon and post-monsoon seasons but the maximum temperatures do not show any significant trend over the other parts of the country. Minimum temperatures show increasing trend over the North Indian states in all seasons and they show an increasing trend over the west coast of India in winter and southwest monsoon seasons. Mean temperature shows an increasing trend over the west coast of India during winter and southwest monsoon seasons. Decreasing trend is observed in the temperature range over North India in all seasons due to increasing trend in minimum temperature.     

Seasonal cycle of surface circulation in the coastal North Indian Ocean

Monthly-mean winds and currents have been used to identify the driving mechanisms of seasonal coastal circulation in the North Indian Ocean. The main conclusions are: (i) the surface circulation off Arabia is typical of a wind-driven system with similar patterns of longshore current and wind stress; (ii) circulation off the west coast of India is consistent with the dynamics of a wind-driven eastern boundary current only during the southwest monsoon. During the northeast monsoon it is possible that the influence of the interior flow is important. (iii) There are at least three mechanisms that influence the surface circulation off the east coast of India: wind-stress, influence of fresh-water run off and contribution of the interior flow. It is difficult at present to assess the relative importance of these three processes.     

Numerical storm surge model for India and Pakistan

The northeastern sector of the Arabian Sea, which covers the Gujarat coast of India and western coast of Pakistan, is a region vulnerable to extreme sea levels associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). Although the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea is not high, the coastal regions of India and Pakistan suffer in terms of loss of life and property caused by the surges. In view of this a location-specific fine resolution model is developed for the Gujarat coast of India and adjoining Pakistan coast. The east–west and north–south grid distance is about 3.0 km. Using this model, numerical experiments are carried out to simulate the surges generated by 1999 and 2001 cyclones which struck the Pakistan coast. The model computed surges are in agreement with the available observational estimates.     

Lightning casualties and damages in China from 1997 to 2009

Lightning-related fatalities, injuries and property damages reported in China from 1997 to 2009 are summarized by using the National Lightning Hazards Database. Therefore, characteristics of the incidents including 5,033 deaths, 4,670 injuries and 61,614 damage reports are analyzed. For the spatial distribution of lightning disasters in China, the eastern costal and southern areas have more frequent lightning disasters than the western areas. Lightning disasters mainly occur in summer months from July to September, while fewer damages occur in winter months from October to March, which correlate significantly with the temporal variability of lightning frequency in China. Lightning-related casualties and damages in China have increased for the period of 1997 to 2007 and then began to decrease since 2008. The national fatalities and injuries per million people per year are 0.31 and 0.28, respectively. Rural people account for 51 and 29% of all lightning fatalities and injuries, which makes residents in agricultural and rural area the major lightning victims. Characteristics of lightning disasters and correlative factors are also studied, including hazard-affected industries and locations. The results show that civil industry has the worst property loss and farmland is the largest category in lightning-caused casualty locations.     

Deep‐water dunes on drowned isolated carbonate terraces (Mozambique Channel,south‐west Indian Ocean)

Subaqueous sand dunes are common bedforms on continental shelves dominated by tidal and geostrophic currents. However, much less is known about sand dunes in deep‐marine settings that are affected by strong bottom currents. In this study, dune fields were identified on drowned isolated carbonate platforms in the Mozambique Channel (south‐west Indian Ocean). The acquired data include multibeam bathymetry, multi‐channel high‐resolution seismic reflection data, sea floor imagery, a sediment sample and current measurements from a moored current meter and hull‐mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler. The dunes are located at water depths ranging from 200 to 600 m on the slope terraces of a modern atoll (Bassas da India Atoll) and within small depressions formed during tectonic deformation of drowned carbonate platforms (Sakalaves Seamount and Jaguar Bank). Dunes are composed of bioclastic medium size sand, and are large to very large, with wavelengths of 40 to 350 m and heights of 0·9 to 9·0 m. Dune migration seems to be unidirectional in each dune field, suggesting a continuous import and export of bioclastic sand, with little sand being recycled. Oceanic currents are very intense in the Mozambique Channel and may be able to erode submerged carbonates, generating carbonate sand at great depths. A mooring located at 463 m water depth on the Hall Bank (30 km west of the Jaguar Bank) showed vigorous bottom currents, with mean speeds of 14 cm sec^?1 and maximum speeds of 57 cm sec^?1, compatible with sand dune formation. The intensity of currents is highly variable and is related to tidal processes (high‐frequency variability) and to anticyclonic eddies near the seamounts (low‐frequency variability). This study contributes to a better understanding of the formation of dunes in deep‐marine settings and provides valuable information about carbonate preservation after drowning, and the impact of bottom currents on sediment distribution and sea floor morphology.     

Vertical propagation of baroclinic Kelvin waves along the west coast of India

A linear, continuously stratified ocean model is used to investigate vertical propagation of remotely forced, baroclinic Kelvin waves along the Indian west coast. The extent of vertical propagation over the length of the coast is found to be an increasing function of the forcing frequency. Simulations show that, over the length of the Indian west coast, vertical propagation is limited at annual and semi-annual periods, but significant at periods shorter than about 120 days. This has two major consequences. First, the depth of subsurface currents associated with these frequencies varies substantially along the coast. Second, baroclinic Kelvin waves generated in the Bay of Bengal at periods shorter than about 120 days have negligible influence on surface currents along the north Indian west coast.     

Tidal propagation in the Gulf of Khambhat, Bombay High, and surrounding areas

The continental shelf on the west coast of India is widest off Bombay and leads into a strongly converging channel, the Gulf of Khambhat. Tides in the Gulf are among the largest on the coast. We use data on amplitude and phase of major semi-diurnal and diurnal constituents at forty-two ports in the Gulf and surrounding areas to define characteristics of the tides. We then use a barotropic numerical model based on shallow water wave equations to simulate the sea level and circulation in the region. The model is forced by prescribing the tide along the open boundaries of the model domain. Observed sea level at Bombay and currents from the Bombay High region at the centre of the model domain and from a shallow station off the port of Dahanu compare favourably with the fields simulated by the model. The simulated amplitudes and phases of the four most prominent tidal constituents also compare favourably with those observed along the coast, except at a few locations where the model spatial resolution (6.37 km × 6.37 km) appears to be inadequate to resolve the local geometry. Though this encourages us to conclude that the circulation in the region is dominated by barotropic tides, a concern is that the observational database on hydrography and directly measured currents in the region is weak.     

Geoarchaeological evidence of a Chola‐period tsunami from an ancient port at Kaveripattinam on the southeastern coast of India

Literature of the ancient Chola Dynasty (A.D. 9th–11th centuries) of South India and recent archaeological excavations allude to a sea flood that crippled the ancient port at Kaveripattinam, a trading hub for Southeast Asia, and probably affected the entire South Indian coast, analogous to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami impact. We present sedimentary evidence from an archaeological site to validate the textual references to this early medieval event. A sandy layer showing bed forms representing high‐energy conditions, possibly generated by a seaborne wave, was identified at the Kaveripattinam coast of Tamil Nadu, South India. Its sedimentary characteristics include hummocky cross‐stratification, convolute lamination with heavy minerals, rip‐up clasts, an erosional contact with the underlying mud bed, and a landward thinning geometry. Admixed with 1000‐year‐old Chola period artifacts, it provided an optically stimulated luminescence age of 1091 ± 66 yr and a thermoluminescence age of 993 ± 73 yr for the embedded pottery sherds. The dates of these proxies converge around 1000 yr B.P., correlative of an ancient tsunami reported from elsewhere along the Indian Ocean coasts. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Spatial variation of probabilistic seismic hazard for Mumbai and surrounding region

Mumbai city, the economical capital of India, is located on the west coast of stable intra-plate continental region of Peninsular India which has an experience of significant historical earthquakes in the past. The city stood as the fourth most populous city in the world. Recent seismo-tectonic studies of this city highlighted the presence of active West coast fault and Chiplun fault beneath the Deccan basalt. In the present study, spatial variability of probabilistic seismic hazard for Mumbai region (latitudes of 18.85–19.35°N and longitudes of 72.80–73.15°E at a grid spacing of 0.05°) which includes Mumbai city, Suburban, part of Thane district and Navi Mumbai, in terms of ground motion parameters; peak horizontal acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1.0-s period for 2 and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years are generated. The epistemic uncertainty in hazard estimation is accounted by employing seven different ground motion prediction equations developed for worldwide shallow crustal intra-plate environments. Further, the seismic hazard results are deaggregated for Mumbai (latitude 18.94°N, longitude 72.84°E) to understand the relative contributions of earthquake sources in terms of magnitude and distance. The generated hazard maps are compared with the zoning specified by Indian seismic code (IS1893: Part 1 in Indian standard criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, Part 1—General provisions and buildings. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, India, 2002) for rocky site. Present results show an underestimation of potential seismic hazard in the entire study region by non-probabilistic zoning prescribed by IS1893: Part 1 with significantly higher seismic hazard values in the southern part of Navi Mumbai.