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单沟泥石流灾害风险简易评价模型 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
按照灾害风险评价的一般框架,定性定量相结合,运用沟谷、降水、成灾因子、遭遇特征与易损程度等五项指标,尝试提出单沟泥石流灾害风险简易评价模型,并结合防治规划,提出了单沟泥石流灾害风险管理对策建议。采用云南新平县泥石流灾害调查数据,开展了实例校验,结果表明,该模型基本反映了沟谷泥石流灾害的相对风险水平,可为现阶段管理提供更加明确的分级依据。 相似文献
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按照灾害风险评价的一般框架,定性定量相结合,运用破坏概率、滑坡强度、承灾因子、遭遇特征与易损程度等5项指标,尝试提出单体滑坡灾害风险简易评价模型,并结合防治规划,提出了滑坡灾害风险管理对策建议。采用云南新平县滑坡灾害调查数据,开展了实例校验,结果表明,该模型基本反映了滑坡灾害的相对风险水平,可为现阶段管理提供更加明确的分级依据。同时,以期抛砖引玉,讨论险情调查与风险调查之间的关系。 相似文献
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In this paper, a new method is proposed for the remediation of contaminated groundwater. The method is based on fuzzy inference and risk evaluation. The effectiveness of the presented method is assessed in numerical simulations. The main results of the study are as follows: 1) A pump-and-treat control algorithm was proposed by using the fuzzy inference and the human health risk calculation model, 2) It was found that applying the proposed algorithm was likely to reduce the pumped quantity, and 3) It was found that the proposed model can be used to notify residents of the human health risk; the model is based on the ASTM RBCA model for residents. A new fuzzy control system for contaminated groundwater can be used as a useful model for characterising the effects of contaminants on human health and providing helpful information on the human risk assessment of the contaminated groundwater site. 相似文献
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This paper presents a summary of a guide for practitioners about the implementation of geotechnical risk management in organisations in the construction industry. Currently, the guide is only available in Dutch. This paper aims to share the key elements of the book with an international readership. First, the perhaps unusual content and style of the guide and its summary are explained, which is the result of organisational rather than technical research. Then, the reality of geotechnical engineering and construction and an ambitious vision of their future perspective are sketched. In this vision, geotechnical risk management plays a dominant role. However, while straightforward in theory, applying complete geotechnical risk management as a routine proves to be a tough exercise in client, contractor, engineering and project organisations. For this reason, a selection of scientifically derived and practically tested organisational key conditions is presented. These conditions aim to facilitate successfully implementing geotechnical risk management in (project) organisations. Finally, this paper gives 10 lessons that have been learned from practice. The lessons aim to support engineers, managers and executives, while they are routinely applying geotechnical risk management in their organisations. This should increase the success rate of projects at a reasonable cost. 相似文献
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An Environmental Risk Assessment/Management Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments 总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10
This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders. The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change, and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of adaptation.The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change is discussed. 相似文献
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灾害学定义之下的土壤盐碱化风险评价 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为改善灌区中低产地的产量、提高其田间管理及粮食综合生产能力、防止土壤盐碱化灾害的扩展,在土壤盐碱化灾害学研究的基础上,建立了土壤盐碱化灾害风险评价指标体系。选用基于熵权的灰色关联评价方法来构建土壤盐碱化灾害风险评价模型,根据标准自然灾害风险原理,建立土壤盐碱化灾害风险指数计算模型。在松原灌区土壤盐碱化灾害风险评价中的应用表明,灌区各灌片盐碱灾害风险值为0.10~0.36,属于中度风险和重度风险区,风险值由小到大排序为:前郭片、安字片、有字片、龙海片、水字片、大布苏片、潜字片、套浩太片、戎字片、红星片、洪字片。该模型与灌区实情符合较好,客观性较强,表明所建模型可用于土壤盐碱化灾害风险评价。 相似文献
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K. Lendering T. Schweckendiek M. Kok 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(3):203-217
Polders in the Netherlands are protected from flooding by flood defence systems along main water bodies such as rivers, lakes or the sea. Inside polders, canal levees provide protection from smaller water bodies. Canal levees are mainly earthen levees along drainage canals that drain excess water from polders to the main water bodies. The water levels in these canals are regulated. During the last decades, probabilistic approaches have been developed to quantify the probability of failure of flood defences along the main water bodies. This paper proposes several extensions to this method to quantify the probability of failure of canal levees. These extensions include a method to account for (i) water-level regulation in canals, (ii) the effect of maintenance dredging on the geohydrological response of the canal levee and (iii) survival of loads in the past. The results of a case study demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of quantifying the probability of failure of canal levees and is useful for exploring the relative benefit of risk mitigating measures for canal levees. 相似文献
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A disaster risk management performance index 总被引:2,自引:4,他引:2
The Risk Management Index, RMI, proposed in this paper, brings together a group of indicators that measure risk management
performance and effectiveness. These indicators reflect the organizational, development, capacity and institutional actions
taken to reduce vulnerability and losses in a given area, to prepare for crisis and to recover efficiently from disasters.
This index is designed to assess risk management performance. It provides a quantitative measure of management based on predefined
qualitative targets or benchmarks that risk management efforts should aim to achieve. The design of the RMI involved establishing a scale of achievement levels
or determining the distance between current conditions and an objective threshold or conditions in a reference country, sub-national region, or city.
The proposed RMI is constructed by quantifying four public policies, each of which is described by six indicators. The mentioned
policies include the identification of risk, risk reduction, disaster management, and governance and financial protection.
Risk identification comprises the individual perception, social representation and objective assessment; risk reduction involves
the prevention and mitigation; disaster management comprises response and recovery; and, governance and financial protection
policy is related to institutionalization and risk transfer. Results at the urban, national and sub-national levels, which
illustrate the application of the RMI in those scales, are finally given. 相似文献
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上海地面沉降风险评价及防治管理区建设研究 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0
在阐述地面沉降风险基本内涵及特征基础上,以上海市为例,详细介绍了地面沉降风险评价的工作流程、评价指标及评价方法。以地面沉降风险评价结果为基础,结合上海目前地面沉降防治工作体系,将地面沉降风险管理与地面沉降防治管理主体相结合,提出了"十二五"期间上海地面沉降风险管理区建设方案。 相似文献
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本文在阐述地面沉降风险基本内涵基础上,以北京市为例,介绍了地面沉降风险评价的三大要素:易发性、危险性及易损性。详细说明了地面沉降风险评价的评价体系、评价指标及评价方法及过程。以地面沉降风险评价结果为基础,结合北京市目前地面沉降防治工作体系,将地面沉降风险评价与地面沉降防治管理主体相结合,提出了各个防治区的地面沉降防治工作重点。 相似文献
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Fernando Paz 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》1989,7(1):53-58
Summary In this paper a general framework is discussed for assessing the seismicity and the seismic risk using a couple-information model. A deterministic model is used to define the different types of information that can represent the input variables of the model; that is, constants, random, fuzzy, linguistic, hybrid and chaotic variables. Other types of models are also discussed having information similar to the input variables, and a way is presented to implement them for assessing risk. 相似文献
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While laboratory and analytical studies can provide valuable information about earthquake hazard mitigation, the most effective educator is the impact of a full-scale earthquake on a full-scale city. The recent earthquakes in Turkey showed that the governmental as well as individual attitudes towards earthquakes did not represent proportionate responses to the risk levels concerned. Turkey had weaknesses in preparing, planning, mitigating and responding to disasters in spite of the known seismic vulnerability of the country. Many steps have been taken after 1999 earthquakes in Turkey, however, the preparations largely concentrate on the response and recovery phases and a fundamental step to reform the current disaster management system and steps to rehabilitate the vulnerable building stock has not been undertaken until today. This would involve changing the present laws and regulations and de-centralising the disaster management system. The aim of this paper is to propose a national mitigation strategy for Turkey for a time-frame of 10 years. The model proposed is a very comprehensive model for earthquake risk reduction in Turkey and within this context, the legislative and technical aspects of mitigation will be discussed in detail. Strategies for mitigating and retrofitting the existing building stock will also be proposed. 相似文献
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地质灾害风险评价与风险管理 总被引:44,自引:2,他引:42
在总结和回顾风险评价和风险管理基本概念、方法步骤和应用于地质灾害评价预测现状的基础上 ,阐述在地质环境评价和地质灾害预测的 GIS系统的基础上进行地质灾害风险评价、管理的总体思路和具体步骤 ,认为这种思路有效 ,具有较好的发展前景。 相似文献
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污染场地土壤风险基准值构建与评价方法研究 总被引:5,自引:2,他引:5
基于对国内外土壤风险基准值和风险评价模型的调查,采用多介质暴露评价模型(MMSOILS),分析不同国家和地区土壤风险基准值的差异性和污染场地风险评价的关键要素。选择砷和苯作为评价的目标污染物,利用最不利的场地条件,进行风险值的量化评价,分析风险值随地下水使用点到污染场地距离的远近而发生的变化。利用线性回归,建立土壤风险基准值与健康风险值的量化关系,确立土壤浓度值14.74mg/kg和1.00mg/kg作为砷和苯的土壤风险基准值。 相似文献