Calibration of high-resolution geophysical data with tracer test measurements to improve hydrological predictions

Relationships between porosity and hydraulic conductivity tend to be strongly scale- and site-dependent and are thus very difficult to establish. As a result, hydraulic conductivity distributions inferred from geophysically derived porosity models must be calibrated using some measurement of aquifer response. This type of calibration is potentially very valuable as it may allow for transport predictions within the considered hydrological unit at locations where only geophysical measurements are available, thus reducing the number of well tests required and thereby the costs of management and remediation. Here, we explore this concept through a series of numerical experiments. Considering the case of porosity characterization in saturated heterogeneous aquifers using crosshole ground-penetrating radar and borehole porosity log data, we use tracer test measurements to calibrate a relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity that allows the best prediction of the observed hydrological behavior. To examine the validity and effectiveness of the obtained relationship, we examine its performance at alternate locations not used in the calibration procedure. Our results indicate that this methodology allows us to obtain remarkably reliable hydrological predictions throughout the considered hydrological unit based on the geophysical data only. This was also found to be the case when significant uncertainty was considered in the underlying relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity.     

A Potential-Based Inversion of Unconfined Steady-State Hydraulic Tomography

The importance of estimating spatially variable aquifer parameters such as transmissivity is widely recognized for studies in resource evaluation and contaminant transport. A useful approach for mapping such parameters is inverse modeling of data from series of pumping tests, that is, via hydraulic tomography. This inversion of field hydraulic tomographic data requires development of numerical forward models that can accurately represent test conditions while maintaining computational efficiency. One issue this presents is specification of boundary and initial conditions, whose location, type, and value may be poorly constrained. To circumvent this issue when modeling unconfined steady-state pumping tests, we present a strategy that analyzes field data using a potential difference method and that uses dipole pumping tests as the aquifer stimulation. By using our potential difference approach, which is similar to modeling drawdown in confined settings, we remove the need for specifying poorly known boundary condition values and natural source/sink terms within the problem domain. Dipole pumping tests are complementary to this strategy in that they can be more realistically modeled than single-well tests due to their conservative nature, quick achievement of steady state, and the insensitivity of near-field response to far-field boundary conditions. After developing the mathematical theory, our approach is first validated through a synthetic example. We then apply our method to the inversion of data from a field campaign at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site. Results from inversion of nine pumping tests show expected geologic features, and uncertainty bounds indicate that hydraulic conductivity is well constrained within the central site area.     

Modeling Steady Sea Water Intrusion with Single‐Density Groundwater Codes

Steady interface flow in heterogeneous aquifer systems is simulated with single‐density groundwater codes by using transformed values for the hydraulic conductivity and thickness of the aquifers and aquitards. For example, unconfined interface flow may be simulated with a transformed model by setting the base of the aquifer to sea level and by multiplying the hydraulic conductivity with 41 (for sea water density of 1025 kg/m³). Similar transformations are derived for unconfined interface flow with a finite aquifer base and for confined multi‐aquifer interface flow. The head and flow distribution are identical in the transformed and original model domains. The location of the interface is obtained through application of the Ghyben‐Herzberg formula. The transformed problem may be solved with a single‐density code that is able to simulate unconfined flow where the saturated thickness is a linear function of the head and, depending on the boundary conditions, the code needs to be able to simulate dry cells where the saturated thickness is zero. For multi‐aquifer interface flow, an additional requirement is that the code must be able to handle vertical leakage in situations where flow in an aquifer is unconfined while there is also flow in the aquifer directly above it. Specific examples and limitations are discussed for the application of the approach with MODFLOW. Comparisons between exact interface flow solutions and MODFLOW solutions of the transformed model domain show good agreement. The presented approach is an efficient alternative to running transient sea water intrusion models until steady state is reached.     

Conceptualization and Calibration of Anisotropic Alluvial Systems: Pitfalls and Biases

Physical properties of alluvial environments typically feature a high degree of anisotropy and are characterized by dynamic interactions between the surface and the subsurface. Hydrogeological models are often calibrated under the assumptions of isotropic hydraulic conductivity fields and steady-state conditions. We aim at understanding how these simplifications affect predictions of the water table using physically based models and advanced calibration and uncertainty analysis approaches based on singular value decomposition and Bayesian analysis. Specifically, we present an analysis of the information content provided by steady-state hydraulic data compared to transient data with respect to the estimation of aquifer and riverbed hydraulic properties. We show that assuming isotropy or fixed anisotropy may generate biases both in the estimation of aquifer and riverbed parameters as well as in the predictive uncertainty of the water table. We further demonstrate that the information content provided by steady-state hydraulic heads is insufficient to jointly estimate the aquifer anisotropy together with the aquifer and riverbed hydraulic conductivities and that transient data can help to reduce the predictive uncertainty to a greater extent. The outcomes of the synthetic analysis are applied to the calibration of a dynamic and anisotropic alluvial aquifer in Switzerland (The Rhône River). The results of the synthetic and real world modeling and calibration exercises documented herein provide insight on future data acquisition as well as modeling and calibration strategies for these environments. They also provide an incentive for evaluation and estimation of commonly made simplifying assumptions in order to prevent underestimation of the predictive uncertainty.     

Reducing Uncertainty in Calibrating Aquifer Flow Model with Multiple Scales of Heterogeneity

Modeling and calibration of natural aquifers with multiple scales of heterogeneity is a challenging task due to limited subsurface access. While computer modeling plays an essential role in aquifer studies, large uncertainty exists in developing a conceptual model of an aquifer and in calibrating the model for decision making. Due to uncertainties such as a lack of understanding of subsurface processes and a lack of techniques to parameterize the subsurface environment (including hydraulic conductivity, source/sink rate, and aquifer boundary conditions), existing aquifer models often suffer nonuniqueness in calibration, leading to poor predictive capability. A robust calibration methodology is needed that can address the simultaneous estimations of aquifer parameters, source/sink, and boundary conditions. In this paper, we propose a multistage and multiscale approach that addresses subsurface heterogeneity at multiple scales, while reducing uncertainty in estimating the model parameters and model boundary conditions. The key to this approach lies in the appropriate development, verification, and synthesis of existing and new techniques of static and dynamic data integration. In particular, based on a given set of observation data, new inversion techniques can be first used to estimate aquifer large‐scale effective parameters and smoothed boundary conditions, based on which parameter and boundary condition estimation can be refined at increasing detail using standard or highly parameterized estimation techniques.     

Uncertainties in DRAINMOD predictions of subsurface drain flow for an Indiana silt loam using the GLUE methodology

Good modelling practice requires the incorporation of uncertainty analysis into hydrologic/water quality models. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation procedure was used to evaluate the uncertainty in DRAINMOD predictions of daily, monthly, and yearly subsurface drain flow. A variance‐based sensitivity analysis technique, the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, was used to identify the main sources of prediction uncertainty. The analysis was conducted for the experimental drainage field at the Southeast Purdue Agricultural Center in Indiana. Six years of data were used and the uncertainties in eight model parameters were considered to analyse how uncertainties in input parameters propagate to model outputs. The width of 90% confidence interval bands of drain flow ranged from 0 to 0·6 cm day^?1 for daily predictions, from 0 to 3·1 cm month^?1 for the monthly predictions, and from 7·6 to 12·4 cm year^?1 for yearly predictions. Annual drain flow predicted by DRAINMOD fell well within the 90% confidence bounds. Model results were most sensitive to the vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity of the restrictive layer and the lateral hydraulic conductivity of the deepest soil layer, followed by the lateral hydraulic conductivity of the top soil layer and surface micro‐storage. Parameter interactions also contributed to the prediction uncertainty. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analytic solutions to transient groundwater flow under time-dependent sources in a heterogeneous aquifer bounded by fluctuating river stage

Analytical solutions for the water table and lateral discharge in a heterogeneous unconfined aquifer with time-dependent source and fluctuating river stage were derived and compared with those in an equivalent homogeneous aquifer. The heterogeneous aquifer considered consists of a number of sections of different hydraulic conductivity values. The source term and river stage were assumed to be time-dependent but spatially uniform. The solutions derived is useful in studying various groundwater flow problems in a horizontally heterogeneous aquifer since the spatially piecewise-constant hydraulic conductivity and temporally piecewise-constant recharge and lateral discharge can be used to quantify variations in these processes commonly observed in reality. Applying the solutions derived to an aquifer of three sections of different hydraulic conductivity values shown that (1) the aquifer heterogeneity significantly increases the spatial variation of the water table and thus its gradient but it has little effect on lateral discharge in the case of temporally and spatially uniform recharge, (2) the time-dependent but spatially uniform recharge increases the temporal variation of groundwater table over the entire aquifer but its effect on lateral discharge is limited in the zone near the river, and (3) the effect of river stage fluctuation on the water table and lateral discharge is limited in the zone near the river and the effect of the heterogeneity is to increase lateral discharge to or recharge from the river.     

Aquifer Properties Determined from Two Analytical Solutions

In the analysis of pumping test data, the quality of the determined aquifer parameters can be greatly improved by using a proper model of the aquifer system. Moench (1995) provided an analytical solution for flow to a well partially penetrating an unconfined aquifer. His solution, in contrast to the Neuman solution (1974), accounts for the noninstantaneous decline of the water table (delayed yield). Consequently, the calculated drawdown in these two solutions is different under certain circumstances, and this difference may therefore affect the computation of aquifer properties from pumping test data. This paper uses an inverse computational method to calculate four aquifer parameters as well as a delayed yield parameter, α₁ from pumping test data using both the Neuman (1974) and Moench (1995) solutions. Time-drawdown data sets from a pumping test in an unconfined alluvial aquifer near Grand Island, Nebraska, were analyzed. In single-well analyses, horizontal hydraulic conductivity values derived from the Moench solution are lower, but vertical hydraulic conductivity values are higher than those calculated from the Neuman solution. However, the hydraulic conductivity values in composite-well analyses from both solutions become very close. Furthermore, the Neuman solution produces similar hydraulic conductivity values in the single-well and composite-well analyses, but the Moench solution does not. While variable α₁, seems to play a role in affecting the computation of aquifer parameters in the single-well analysis, a much smaller effect was observed in the composite-well analysis. In general, specific yield determined using the Moench solution could be slightly higher than the values from the Neuman solution; however, they are still lower than the realistic values for sand and gravel aquifers.     

Delineating alluvial aquifer heterogeneity using resistivity and GPR data

Conceptual geological models based on geophysical data can elucidate aquifer architecture and heterogeneity at meter and smaller scales, which can lead to better predictions of preferential flow pathways. The macrodispersion experiment (MADE) site, with >2000 measurements of hydraulic conductivity obtained and three tracer tests conducted, serves as an ideal natural laboratory for examining relationships between subsurface flow characteristics and geophysical attributes in fluvial aquifers. The spatial variation of hydraulic conductivity measurements indicates a large degree of site heterogeneity. To evaluate the usefulness of geophysical methods for better delineating fluvial aquifer heterogeneities and distribution of preferential flow paths, a surface grid of two-dimensional ground penetrating radar (GPR) and direct current (DC) resistivity data were collected. A geological model was developed from these data that delineate four stratigraphic units with distinct electrical and radar properties including (from top to bottom) (1) a meandering fluvial system (MFS); (2) a braided fluvial system (BFS); (3) fine-grained sands; and (4) a clay-rich interval. A paleochannel, inferred by other authors to affect flow, was mapped in the MFS with both DC resistivity and GPR data. The channel is 2 to 4 m deep and, based on resistivity values, is predominantly filled with clay and silt. Comparing previously collected hydraulic conductivity measurements and tracer-plume migration patterns to the geological model indicates that flow primarily occurs in the BFS and that the channel mapped in the MFS has no influence on plume migration patterns.     

Assimilation of historical head data to estimate spatial distributions of stream bed and aquifer hydraulic conductivity fields

Management of water resources in alluvial aquifers relies mainly on understanding interactions between hydraulically connected streams and aquifers. Numerical models that simulate this interaction often are used as decision support tools for water resource management. However, the accuracy of numerical predictions relies heavily on unknown system parameters (e.g., streambed conductivity and aquifer hydraulic conductivity), which are spatially heterogeneous and difficult to measure directly. This paper employs an ensemble smoother to invert groundwater level measurements to jointly estimate spatially varying streambed and alluvial aquifer hydraulic conductivity along a 35.6‐km segment of the South Platte River in Northeastern Colorado. The accuracy of the inversion procedure is evaluated using a synthetic experiment and historical groundwater level measurements, with the latter constituting the novelty of this study in the inversion and validation of high‐resolution fields of streambed and aquifer conductivities. Results show that the estimated streambed conductivity field and aquifer conductivity field produce an acceptable agreement between observed and simulated groundwater levels and stream flow rates. The estimated parameter fields are also used to simulate the spatially varying flow exchange between the alluvial aquifer and the stream, which exhibits high spatial variability along the river reach with a maximum average monthly aquifer gain of about 2.3 m³/day and a maximum average monthly aquifer loss of 2.8 m³/day, per unit area of streambed (m²). These results demonstrate that data assimilation inversion provides a reliable and computationally affordable tool to estimate the spatial variability of streambed and aquifer conductivities at high resolution in real‐world systems.     

Assessing hydrological model predictive uncertainty using stochastically generated geological models

In distributed and coupled surface water–groundwater modelling, the uncertainty from the geological structure is unaccounted for if only one deterministic geological model is used. In the present study, the geological structural uncertainty is represented by multiple, stochastically generated geological models, which are used to develop hydrological model ensembles for the Norsminde catchment in Denmark. The geological models have been constructed using two types of field data, airborne geophysical data and borehole well log data. The use of airborne geophysical data in constructing stochastic geological models and followed by the application of such models to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty for both surface water and groundwater have not been previously studied. The results show that the hydrological ensemble based on geophysical data has a lower level of simulation uncertainty, but the ensemble based on borehole data is able to encapsulate more observation points for stream discharge simulation. The groundwater simulations are in general more sensitive to the changes in the geological structure than the stream discharge simulations, and in the deeper groundwater layers, there are larger variations between simulations within an ensemble than in the upper layers. The relationship between hydrological prediction uncertainties measured as the spread within the hydrological ensembles and the spatial aggregation scale of simulation results has been analysed using a representative elementary scale concept. The results show a clear increase of prediction uncertainty as the spatial scale decreases. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic river–groundwater exchange in the presence of a saline,semi‐confined aquifer

Understanding groundwater–surface water exchange in river banks is crucial for effective water management and a range of scientific disciplines. While there has been much research on bank storage, many studies assume idealized aquifer systems. This paper presents a field‐based study of the Tambo Catchment (southeast Australia) where the Tambo River interacts with both an unconfined aquifer containing relatively young and fresh groundwater (<500 μS/cm and <100 years old) and a semi‐confined artesian aquifer containing old and saline groundwater (electrical conductivity > 2500 μS/cm and >10 000 years old). Continuous groundwater elevation and electrical conductivity monitoring within the different aquifers and the river suggest that the degree of mixing between the two aquifers and the river varies significantly in response to changing hydrological conditions. Numerical modelling using MODFLOW and the solute transport package MT3DMS indicates that saline water in the river bank moves away from the river during flooding as hydraulic gradients reverse. This water then returns during flood recession as baseflow hydraulic gradients are re‐established. Modelling also indicates that the concentration of a simulated conservative groundwater solute can increase for up to ~34 days at distances of 20 and 40 m from the river in response to flood events approximately 10 m in height. For the same flood event, simulated solute concentrations within 10 m of the river increase for only ~15 days as the infiltrating low‐salinity river water drives groundwater dilution. Average groundwater fluxes to the river stretch estimated using Darcy's law were 7 m³/m/day compared with 26 and 3 m³/m/day for the same periods via mass balance using Radon (²²²Rn) and chloride (Cl), respectively. The study shows that by coupling numerical modelling with continuous groundwater–surface water monitoring, the transient nature of bank storage can be evaluated, leading to a better understanding of the hydrological system and better interpretation of hydrochemical data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A stochastic optimization framework for the restoration of an over-exploited aquifer

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impact of hydraulic conductivity uncertainty on the sustainable management of the aquifer of Lake Karla, Greece, using the stochastic optimization approach. The lack of surface water resources in combination with the sharp increase in irrigation needs in the basin over the last 30 years have led to an unprecedented degradation of the aquifer. In addition, the lack of data regarding hydraulic conductivity in a heterogeneous aquifer leads to hydrogeologic uncertainty. This uncertainty has to be taken into consideration when developing the optimization procedure in order to achieve the aquifer’s sustainable management. Multiple Monte Carlo realizations of this spatially-distributed parameter are generated and groundwater flow is simulated for each one of them. The main goal of the sustainable management of the ‘depleted’ aquifer of Lake Karla is two-fold: to determine the optimum volume of renewable groundwater that can be extracted, while, at the same time, restoring its water table to a historic high level. A stochastic optimization problem is therefore formulated, based on the application of the optimization method for each of the aquifer’s multiple stochastic realizations in a future period. In order to carry out this stochastic optimization procedure, a modelling system consisting of a series of interlinked models was developed. The results show that the proposed stochastic optimization framework can be a very useful tool for estimating the impact of hydraulic conductivity uncertainty on the management strategies of a depleted aquifer restoration. They also prove that the optimization process is affected more by hydraulic conductivity uncertainty than the simulation process.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor S. Weijs     

Effects of experimental uncertainty on the calculation of hillslope flow paths

Measurement uncertainty is a key hindrance to the quantification of water fluxes at all scales of investigation. Predictions of soil‐water flux rely on accurate or representative measurements of hydraulic gradients and field‐state hydraulic conductivity. We quantified the potential magnitude of errors associated with the parameters and variables used directly and indirectly within the Darcy – Buckingham soil‐water‐flux equation. These potential errors were applied to a field hydrometric data set collected from a forested hillslope in central Singapore, and their effect on flow pathway predictions was assessed. Potential errors in the hydraulic gradient calculations were small, approximately one order of magnitude less than the absolute magnitude of the hydraulic gradients. However, errors associated with field‐state hydraulic conductivity derivation were very large. Borehole (Guelph permeameter) and core‐based (Talsma ring permeameter) techniques were used to measure field‐saturated hydraulic conductivity. Measurements using these two approaches differed by up to 3\9 orders of magnitude, with the difference becoming increasingly marked within the B horizon. The sensitivity of the shape of the predicted unsaturated hydraulic conductivity curve to ±5% moisture content error on the moisture release curve was also assessed. Applied moisture release curve error resulted in hydraulic conductivity predictions of less than ±0\2 orders of magnitude deviation from the apparent conductivity. The flow pathways derived from the borehole saturated hydraulic conductivity approach suggested a dominant near‐surface flow pathway, whereas pathways calculated from the core‐based measurements indicated vertical percolation to depth. Direct tracer evidence supported the latter flow pathway, although tracer velocities were approximately two orders of magnitude smaller than the Darcy predictions. We conclude that saturated hydraulic conductivity is the critical hillslope hydrological parameter, and there is an urgent need to address the issues regarding its measurement further. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contribution of climatic and anthropogenic effects to the hydric deficit of peatlands

The present study makes use of a detailed water balance to investigate the hydrological status of a peatland with a basal clay‐rich layer overlying an aquifer exploited for drinking water. The aim is to determine the influence of climate and groundwater extraction on the water balance and water levels in the peatland. During the two‐year period of monitoring, the hydrological functioning of the wetland showed a hydric deficit, associated with a permanent unsaturated layer and a deep water table. At the same time, a stream was observed serving as a recharge inflow instead of draining the peatland, as usually described in natural systems. Such conditions are not favourable for peat accumulation. Field investigations show that the clay layer has a high hydraulic conductivity (from 1·10^?7 to 3·10^?9 m.s^?1) and does not form a hydraulic barrier. Moreover, the vertical hydraulic gradients are downward between the peat and the sand aquifer, leading to high flows of groundwater through the clay layer (20–48% of the precipitation). The observed hydric deficit of the peatland results from a combination of dry climatic conditions during the study period and groundwater extraction. The climatic effect is mainly expressed through drying out of the peatland, while the anthropogenic effect leads to an enhancement of the climatic effect on a global scale, and a modification of fluxes at a local scale. The drying out of the peatland can lead to its mineralisation, which thus gives rise to environmental impacts. The protection of such wetlands in the context of climate change should take account of anthropogenic pressures by considering the wetland‐aquifer interaction. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analytical investigation of the exact groundwater divide between rivers beyond the Dupuit–Forchheimer approximation

The groundwater divide is a key feature of river basins and significantly influenced by subsurface hydrological processes. For an unconfined aquifer between two parallel rivers or ditches, it has long been defined as the top of the water table based on the Dupuit–Forchheimer approximation. However, the exact groundwater divide is subject to the interface between two local flow systems transporting groundwater to rivers from the infiltration recharge. This study contributes a new analytical model for two-dimensional groundwater flow between rivers of different water levels. The flownet is delineated in the model to identify groundwater flow systems and the exact groundwater divide. Formulas with two dimensionless parameters are derived to determine the distributed hydraulic head, the top of the water table and the groundwater divide. The locations of the groundwater divide and the top of the water table are not the same. The distance between them in horizontal can reach up to 8.9% of the distance between rivers. Numerical verifications indicate that simplifications in the analytical model do not significantly cause misestimates in the location of the groundwater divide. In contrast, the Dupuit–Forchheimer approximation yields an incorrect water table shape. The new analytical model is applied to investigate groundwater divides in the Loess Plateau, China, with a Monte Carlo simulation process taking into account the uncertainties in the parameters.     

Including geophysical data in ground water model inverse calibration

A nonlinear regression method is developed that can be used to estimate parameters of a ground waterflow model from a combination of observations of hydrological variables and observations of geophysical properties that are functionally related with the hydraulic conductivity. The procedure estimates: parameters characterizing the hydraulic conductivity field (e.g., zonal or pilot point values); geophysical properties that have been observed and that are functionally related with the hydraulic conductivity parameters; and a few parameters of the function that relates the hydraulic conductivity parameters with the geophysical properties (the type of function is assumed known). A fidelity factor, sigma(r)2, of a term of the minimized objective function reflects the faith one has in the validity of this functional relationship. The estimation methodology has been tested by means of synthetic models. The experimental results demonstrate that the number of estimated hydraulic conductivity parameters can be increased by adding geophysical observations to the set of hydrological observations that are traditionally used for model calibration. The improvement of the estimated hydraulic conductivity field and the simulated hydraulic head field can be significant but is dependent on the number, the locations, and the uncertainty of geophysical observations. The sensitivity of the estimation results to the value of sigma(r) is small for the studied problems except when the uncertainty of geophysical observations is high. In the latter case, a large sigma(r) value was found to be optimal to avoid that hydraulic conductivity estimates are closely tied to corresponding but highly uncertain geophysical observations.     

Spatio‐temporal analysis of groundwater recharge and mound dynamics in an unconfined aquifer: a GIS‐based approach

Groundwater recharge and mounding of water‐table is a complex phenomenon involving time‐ and space‐dependent hydrologic processes. The effect of long‐term groundwater mounding in the aquifer depends on soil, aquifer geometry and the area contributing to recharge. In this paper, a GIS‐based spatio‐temporal algorithm has been developed for the groundwater mound dynamics to estimate the potential rise in the water‐table and groundwater volume balance residual in an unconfined aquifer. The recharge and mound dynamics as predicted using the methodology recommended here were compared with those using the Hantush equation, and the differences were quite significant. The significance of the study is to assess the effectiveness of the basin in terms of its hydrologic and hydraulic properties for sustainable management of groundwater recharge. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determination of specific yield for the Biscayne Aquifer with a canal-drawdown test

Data from a large-scale canal-drawdown test were used to estimate the specific yield (sy) of the Biscayne Aquifer, an unconfined limestone aquifer in southeast Florida. The drawdown test involved dropping the water level in a canal by about 30 cm and monitoring the response of hydraulic head in the surrounding aquifer. Specific yield was determined by analyzing data from the unsteady portion of the drawdown test using an analytical stream-aquifer interaction model (Zlotnik and Huang 1999). Specific yield values computed from drawdown at individual piezometers ranged from 0.050 to 0.57, most likely indicating heterogeneity of specific yield within the aquifer (small-scale variation in hydraulic conductivity may also have contributed to the differences in sy among piezometers). A value of 0.15 (our best estimate) was computed based on all drawdown data from all piezometers. We incorporated our best estimate of specific yield into a large-scale two-dimensional numerical MODFLOW-based ground water flow model and made predictions of head during a 183-day period at four wells located 337 to 2546 m from the canal. We found good agreement between observed and predicted heads, indicating our estimate of specific yield is representative of the large portion of the Biscayne Aquifer studied here. This work represents a practical and novel approach to the determination of a key hydrogeological parameter (the storage parameter needed for simulation and calculation of transient unconfined ground water flow), at a large spatial scale (a common scale for water resource modeling), for a highly transmissive limestone aquifer (in which execution of a traditional pump test would be impractical and would likely yield ambiguous results). Accurate estimates of specific yield and other hydrogeological parameters are critical for management of water supply, Everglades environmental restoration, flood control, and other issues related to the ground water hydrology of the Biscayne Aquifer.