芦山MS7.0地震前的电磁异常信号

对南北地震带18个地电场及电磁扰动观测台站进行了跟踪与研究, 2013年4月20日四川芦山M_S7.0地震前只有其中5个台站观测到了异常电磁信号. 研究表明, 地震前的这些异常信号时空分布非常不均匀. 在时间上表现出震前电磁异常信号在出现的台站上不是同步的, 且随着时间的推移有向震中方向迁移的趋势; 在空间上体现在成都以北的台站都没有记录到震前电磁异常信号, 主要出现在成都及其以南的一些台站. 芦山M_S7.0地震前地震电磁信号出现的最早时间是震前21天, 其次是震前16天; 临震时间则为震前5天、 4天和1天. 通过接地极注入地下的大电流以及以往的震例分析, 认为仙女山台是又一个比较突出的电磁信号观测的敏感点.      

2008年汶川MS8.0与2010年玉树 MS7.1地震前电磁现象研究

应用全局小波能谱法对2008年四川汶川M_S8.0地震、 2010年青海玉树M_S7.1地震前地电、 地磁场变化情况进行了分析研究. 结果表明: ① 在汶川地震震中周围的台站观测到震前地电、 地磁场全局小波能谱值增大的现象; ② 青藏高原东北缘的代乾等3个地电、 地磁台站在玉树地震前均发生显著的小波能谱增大的现象, 震后恢复; ③ 对于上述两次大震周边地区的不同台站的不同测道, 在震前多次出现谱值时间上同步增大或减少的现象; ④ 距玉树地震震中距离相同的山丹和古丰地电场台站, 北南、 北西测向长极距在地震前后能谱值的变化几乎一致. 基于上述分析, 初步研究认为震源孕育激发的电磁辐射是造成震前电磁异常现象的主要原因.      

芦山MS7.0地震前远、 近场形变 时空演化特征研究

应用芦山M_S7.0地震震中附近跨断层及连续形变观测资料, 分析了芦山地震前不同阶段地形变变化的特点, 讨论了震中附近区域异常时空演化过程. 结果表明: ① 自2013年1月起, 沿鲜水河断裂带一些跨断层基线观测到显著的加速转折变化, 沿安宁河、 则木河断裂带个别场地的跨断层水准基线, 2010年以来出现的巨幅异常等是突出的场兆变化; 沿龙门山断裂带一些水准观测在汶川M_S8.0地震后持续的调整变化具有近震源区变形特征. ② 鲜水河、 龙门山和安宁河3条主要断裂围成的三叉口地区, 地倾斜、 应变、 重力及断层水准和蠕变观测临震前均未有显著的异常变化, GPS水平、 垂直位移年速率最小, 该地区是形变变化或形变异常分布的“空区”. ③ 在对近场与远场多种连续形变数据通过傅里叶变换提取年周期成分后发现, 临震前2—3年近震源区域的地倾斜、 重力年变化幅度不是增大, 而是减小. 芦山M_S7.0地震前观测到的形变前兆现象特征与汶川M_S8.0地震等震前的前兆现象较为接近. 因此, 芦山地震前近震源区及外围形变异常分布特征不是个别的现象.      

汶川MS8.0地震前区域性 地电阻率异常初步研究

对汶川M_S8.0地震震中周围17个台站的地电阻率观测资料进行了处理. 以2007年的地电阻率观测数据为背景值, 计算出每一个台站NS和EW 两个测向2008年的地电阻率月均值相对变化的绝对值, 然后选择较大的值作为当月的相对变化值. 最终获得了汶川地震前5个月的地电阻率异常变化图像. 结果表明, 随着发震时间的临近, 地电阻率异常分布的范围逐渐缩小, 并最终集中分布在汶川地震震中附近; 在临近发震时间(2008年3, 4月), 地电阻率异常分布的长轴方向与汶川M_S8.0地震的破裂方向、 龙门山断裂带走向或地震烈度分布的长轴方向几乎垂直, 而与其震源机制解的主压应力轴方向基本一致.      

2022年芦山MS6.1地震：发生在隐伏反冲断层上的一次中强地震

继2008年汶川M_S8.0地震和2013年芦山M_S7.0地震后,2022年6月1日在龙门山断裂带南段又发生了一次M_S6.1强震,距离2013年芦山M_S7.0地震震中位置仅10 km.为研究此次地震的发震断层及两次芦山地震的关系,对震后60天的余震序列进行重定位,获得了933个高精度定位结果,EW,NS和UD方向上的定位误差分别为0.15 km,0.13 km和0.23 km.余震序列在水平分布上沿北东—南西向略长,在深度上主要分布在12—20 km,10 km以浅余震很少.余震震源深度剖面显示发震断层面倾向南东,与2013年芦山M_S7.0地震发震断层结构中的反冲断层倾向一致,两次芦山地震的发震断层结构相交为复式Y型断裂结构,此次芦山地震的发震断层为其中一条深度更深的反冲断层.此次地震没有产生地表破裂,推测发震断层为一条埋深较深的隐伏断层.两次芦山地震的余震震中分布区跨过了该区域的一条大型逆冲型断裂带,即双石—大川断裂带.深度剖面显示芦山M_S7.0地震的南东...     

MS8.0汶川地震对MS7.0芦山地震成核失稳的影响

依据速率-状态依赖性摩擦本构关系,并结合中下地壳和上地幔的黏弹性松弛效应,以震后库仑破裂应力变化和同震动态库仑破裂应力变化的计算为基础,模拟了两种应力变化对芦山地震断层的失稳发震时间的影响,研究了2008年M_S8.0汶川地震与2013年M_S7.0芦山地震之间的触发关系.计算得到,汶川地震在芦山地震震源断层面上产生的动态应力变化的峰值为0.127 MPa;此外,经过近5年中下地壳和上地幔的黏弹性松弛效应,芦山地震震源断层面上受到的震后应力变化值为0.025 MPa.结果表明,芦山地震的震源断层在应力积累逐渐接近临界状态的某一特定时期内,受到了汶川地震产生的动态应力变化、静态应力变化以及黏弹性松弛效应造成应力变化的共同触发作用,且动态应力的延迟触发作用可能更为显著.最后对芦山地震之后研究区域的应力变化场进行了初步探讨.     

汶川MS8.0大震前的电磁现象

本文应用最大熵谱估计方法(MEM)等处理了2008年四川汶川M_S8.0地震震中周围电磁台的观测数据,研究了地电、地磁场变化,得到:(1) 在汶川大震前,位于青藏高原东北缘的电磁台记录了显著的自然电场变化、地电场功率谱值增大以及地磁场日变化波形畸变等电磁现象,特别是地电场周期约小于3 h的低频成分的谱值增大了3个数量级以上.(2) 在距离主震震中约500 km范围内,记录了地电、地磁场低频谱值增大为主的电磁现象,特别是距离主震震中最近的成都台地电场谱值增大了4个数量级.(3) 震前电磁现象的时空分布与青藏高原的大震活动(包括2008年新疆于田M_S7.3地震)有大空间尺度的构造关联性.本文讨论了电磁现象的机理,认为在震前地下介质内部的微裂隙发展、定向排列过程中,微破裂"机-电转换"作用和地下水运移等多因素引起了地电、地磁场变化.在本次大震前电磁现象的时空强图像很复杂,可能原因是台站所在处的地下局部介质作用和震源孕育激发的电磁辐射引起了复杂的电磁现象.     

汶川MS8.0地震前云南地区显著前兆观测异常分析

汶川M_S8.0地震前云南地区出现了显著的前兆观测异常. 该文从大地震的孕育范围出发分析认为这些地震前兆异常可能与汶川M_S8.0地震有关, 并认识到前兆观测出现的显著极值异常可能是M_S≥7.0大地震的前兆; 有学者认为大震震源区没有或较少出现前兆观测趋势异常是大地震的共性特征, 汶川M_S8.0地震的前兆观测异常也是相同的; 地震前兆观测异常开始和结束时间是多样的, 前兆异常的分布是复杂的, 因此利用震后总结的共性特征, 在震前对汶川M_S8.0地震作出预测是困难的.      

2022年芦山MS6.1地震序列的精确定位及发震构造

2022年6月1日在四川芦山发生了M_S6.1地震。为厘清这次地震的发震构造与2013年4月20日芦山M_S7.0地震是否相同,文中基于2013年4月20日—2022年7月1日四川地震台网记录到的芦山地区的震相数据,采用多阶段地震定位方法进行了精确定位,最终获得了6 992次M_L≥1.0地震事件的精确定位结果,定位误差为：水平向0.5km,垂直向0.7km,走时残差0.18s。主震的精确位置为(30.382°N, 102.943°E),震源深度为15.6km。定位结果显示,2022年芦山M_S6.1地震序列整体位于2013年芦山M_S7.0地震序列北东端的西南侧,余震密集区NE-SW向长约10km, NW-SE向长约8km。整个芦山地震序列震中分布区域的长轴呈NE向,沿其走向的震源深度剖面显示,2022年6月1日芦山M_S6.1主震和M_S4.5最大余震的震源深度约为15km,与2013年芦山M_S7.0主震的震源深度相当。M...     

芦山MS7.0级地震余震序列重新定位及构造意义

利用四川省地震台网的震相数据和双差定位方法对芦山M_S7.0级地震及其余震序列进行了精确定位,根据余震分布确定了发震断层的位置和断层面的几何特征,并对余震活动进行了分析.结果显示,芦山M_S7.0级地震的震中位于30.28°N、102.99°E,震源深度为16.33 km.余震沿发震断层向主震两侧延伸,主要分布在长约32 km、宽约15~20 km、深度为5~24 km的范围内.地震破裂带朝西南方向扩展范围较大,东北方向略小,余震震级随时间迅速衰减.震源深度剖面清晰地显示出发震断层的逆冲破裂特征,推测发震断层为大川—双石断裂东侧约10 km的隐伏断层.该断层走向217°、倾向北西,倾角约45°,产状与大川—双石断裂相比略缓,它们同属龙门山前山断裂带的叠瓦状逆冲断层系.受发震断裂影响,部分余震沿大川—双石断裂分布,西北方向的余震延伸至宝兴杂岩体的东南缘,与汶川地震的破裂带之间存在50 km左右的地震空区,有可能成为未来发生强震的潜在危险区.     

2013年芦山M_S7.0地震产生的静态库仑应力变化及其对余震空间分布的影响

2013年4月20日芦山MS7.0地震发生在龙门山断裂带的西南段,距2008年汶川MS8.0地震仅约85km,时间上仅相隔5年.首先计算了汶川地震的静态库仑应力变化对本次芦山地震的影响,得出芦山地震是由汶川地震触发造成的(库仑应力上升了0.012 MPa);进一步计算了芦山地震与汶川地震这两次大地震共同产生的静态库仑应力变化.结果表明,芦山地震的余震受前面两次大地震的共同影响,而不仅仅是芦山地震单独作用的结果,超过85%的余震发生在两次地震共同产生的静态库仑应力变化增大的地方,而芦山地震本身触发不了本次的余震序列(仅48.7%的余震位于主震所产生的应力加载区).此外,计算结果表明芦山地震本身对周边断层影响较小,仅龙门山断裂带的东北段受到一定的加载作用;而由于汶川地震的作用,安宁河断裂、大凉山断裂、马尔康断裂、岷江断裂和虎牙断裂呈卸载趋势,仅鲜水河断裂东南段和龙门山断裂中段受到加载作用,这均会加速断层上新地震的发生.     

REANALYSIS OF BEDROCK GROUND TEMPERATURE CHANGES PRIOR TO 2013 LUSHAN MS7.0 EARTHQUAKE

Before 2013 Lushan M_S7.0 earthquake, the bedrock ground temperature in Kangding station, the cross-fault deformation and the borehole strain in Guza station all show that regional stress changes possibly occurred along the Xianshuihe Fault. In this paper, further analysis is made on the observation data of bedrock ground temperature in the three stations in the Xianshuihe fault zone, and the results are compared with borehole strain, seismometry and cross-fault deformation data. Stress temperature in the three stations dropped suddenly synchronously a few days before the Lushan earthquake, indicating the enhanced tension characteristics of the regional stress in the Qianning-Kangding zone. High-frequency components of bedrock temperature in the three stations also showed synchronous changes in the 80 days before the Lushan earthquake, with an estimated stress change range of 0.98~1.96MPa, an average of about 1.47MPa, which is close to the seismometry results. Besides, tensional mutation in borehole strain is consistent with the enhanced tensional characteristics of regional stress revealed by bedrock ground temperature. Comparison with cross-fault deformation shows that the stress change was different in different active segments of the Xianshuihe Fault in different time periods before the Lushan earthquake, but the regional stress change did appear along the Xianshuihe fault zone before the Lushan earthquake.     

2008年汶川Ms8.0地震在2013年芦山Ms7.0地震和2014年康定Ms6.3地震破裂区引起的库仑破裂应力

2008年5月12日四川汶川发生M_S8.0地震发生之后, 先后于2013年4月20日和2014年11月22日分别在汶川M_S8.0地震震中西南约80 km的芦山县和约178 km的康定县发生了M_S7.0和M_S6.3地震。 芦山地震位于龙门山前主边界处, 康定地震位于鲜水河断裂带上。 芦山地震发生前有几位作者先后计算了汶川M_S8.0地震引起的库仑破裂应力, 分析了其对周围断层的影响。 本文对这些研究结果进行了简要回顾, 并根据芦山地震和康定地震的实际发震断层面参数, 计算了汶川M_S8.0地震在芦山地震和康定地震震源深度处的水平面上以及其发震断层面上产生的库仑破裂应力, 还给出了其震中处库仑破裂应力随深度的变化。 结果表明, 汶川M_S8.0地震发生使芦山地震震源断层面上有利于其错动发震的应力大面积增加而使康定地震震源断层面上有利于其错动发震的应力大面积减小。 在芦山地震初始破裂点处引起的库仑破裂应力达0.245 MPa, 在康定地震初始破裂点处引起的库仑破裂应力为-0.00063 MPa。 因此, 汶川M_S8.0地震的发生对芦山地震具有明显的促进作用, 而对康定地震的作用不明显。 在目标断层面参数已知的情况下, 根据库仑破裂应力在目标断层面上的分布, 可能为未来地震发生的地点提供线索, 进而对地震发生的危险性进行预测。 若一次地震的发生使目标断层面上有利于其错动发震的应力大面积显著增加, 这种情况下库仑破裂应力对未来地震具有预测意义。     

汶川地震对芦山地震及周边 断层发震概率的影响

大震后区域静态库仑应力变化常常被用于解释区域地震活动性速率的变化、 主震断层外余震的发生以及即将失稳断层的地震发生概率的变化. 2013年4月20日芦山M_S7.0地震的发生重新引起了对2008年5月12日汶川M_S8.0大地震的热议. 利用含(滑移)速率和状态的摩擦定律, 结合汶川大地震前后的地震活动性水平, 定量化计算了汶川地震后雅安地区发震概率的变化, 并着重解释了芦山地震发震的可能根源. 此外, 还对库仑应力明显增加的鲜水河断层和熊坡断层进行了发震概率的定量化计算, 计算结果与中国地震台网中心的地震目录基本符合. 鲜水河断层从汶川地震后至今近5年来未发生M>6.0地震, 而M>6.0的发震概率已约为60%; 熊坡断层自汶川地震以来尚未发生M>4.0地震, 芦山地震后M>4.0的发震概率已接近90%. 所以, 我们认为鲜水河断层附近将成为M>6.0地震的重点防范地区, 熊坡地区将来仍旧存在发生中强地震的危险性.      

STUDY ON CHARACTERISTICS OF GRAVITY VARIATION BEFORE AND AFTER HUTUBI MS6.2 EARTHQUAKE

The Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake of December 8, 2016 is a pure thrust event in the northern Tianshan thrust fold belt. The earthquake occurred between the Qigu Fault and the Junggar southern margin fault, which are both thrust faults. Based on mobile gravity measurements from 2013 to 2018 in the northern Tianshan, the gravity net adjustment was accomplished using Urumqi absolute gravity observation point as the datum, and the absolute gravity value of surface observation points were obtained. In order to eliminate the seasonal effect on gravity variation, the paper uses the observation data in May per annual as studying objects and obtains the temporal-spatial dynamic evolution images of gravity field differences in the northern Tianshan at different time scales as well as the time series of gravity variation of some points in the adjacent area of the epicenter. The characteristics of regional gravity variation before and after the Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake on December 8, 2016 and their relations are analyzed systematically. The results show that: 1)The gravity variations in the study area are dramatic in generally, and the contours of gravity variation are consistent with the main faults basically. There was a four-quadrant distribution near the epicenter before the earthquake, and the Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake occurred near the center of the four-quadrant distribution and at the turn of the gravity variation contour. The three years' cumulative gravity variation before the earthquake and the gravity variation after the earthquake are inversed, and the variation amplitudes are equivalent, suggesting that the M_S6.2 earthquake has released the stress and the energy accumulated before the earthquake. 2)This paper focuses on the analysis of gravity variation at the observation points on both sides of the Junggar southern margin fault near the epicenter. Regional gravity variation and gravity time series show that gravity variations at the same side of the Junggar southern margin fault are basically consistent, however, gravity variations at the different sides of the Junggar southern margin fault are different from each other obviously, indicating the difference of material migration laws in different structural regions. In addition, the strain energy accumulated in the epicenter is basically released after the earthquake, and the area nearby the epicenter tends to be stable. 3)The Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake occurred near the center of the four-quadrant and at the turn of the high-gradient zone of gravity variation, reflecting the location of strong earthquake is related to the distribution of four-quadrant of regional gravity variation, the high-gradient zone of regional gravity variation and its turn. It has a unique advantage in determining the location of strong earthquake using gravity variation results. The regional spatial-temporal gravity variation before the earthquake is manifested as a systematic evolution process of “steady state→regional gravity anomaly→four-quadrant distribution→earthquake occurring in the reverse process”. Studying the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of gravity field before and after Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake has important practical significance for understanding the occurrence law of large earthquakes and capturing the precursory information of earthquakes.     

POISSON'S RATIO VARIATIONS OF CRUSTAL MEDIA BEFORE AND AFTER XINYUAN-HEJING MS6.6 EARTHQUAKE IN 2012

We analyzed the variation characteristics of Poisson's ratio in crustal media from January 2009 to December 2012 at 11 fixed seismic stations(for station SCH, it is from January 2006 to December 2012)within an epicenter distance of 200km of the Xinyuan-Hejing M_S6.6 earthquake in Xinjiang on June 30, 2012 using the methods of P wave receiver functions, H-κ stacking of receiver functions, and time sliding window, and obtained the following conclusions: (1)The crustal media's Poisson ratio of five stations in an epicenter distance less than 130km showed a significant and long-lasting decline about 2~3 years before Xinyuan-Hejing M_S6.6 earthquake. Taking the crustal Poisson ratio mean value as reference, the decrease ranges between 0.003 and 0.014, the decrease in 4 stations are more than twice the mean error. The variations of the Poisson's ratio in crust are characterized by "V" shape or "double V" shape. Earthquakes occur at the end of the formation of "V" shape. After the occurrence of earthquakes, the Poisson's ratio continues to rise. The earliest initial fall appeared in July 2009 at WUS station which has the minimum epicentral distance(77km). The Poisson ratio of the crustal media of 6 stations with epicentral distance more than 150km fluctuated up and down around the mean value, and there is no significant decline or persistent low value. (2)We analyzed the arrival-time variations of the quasi-repetitive receiver functions Ps converted wave(t_Ps)of the 3 stations WUS, SCH and XNY and found that the travel times of Ps converted waves became smaller in the crust before the earthquake and increased after the earthquake. (3)Through the comprehensive analysis on the descending process, decline ranges, variations process, duration of Poisson' ratio, the Ps converted waves arrival time variations, the original time of earthquake, and the number of stations, it is inferred that the cause for Poisson's ratio anomalous variations is the change of physical properties of crustal media in the process of earthquake preparation and occurrence. Since the variation characteristics of crustal media may be related to the earthquake magnitude, the size of seismogenic area, the medium properties under stations, and the focal distance, whether the medium variation characteristics exist before and after Xinyuan-Hejing M_S6.6 earthquake will need more earthquake cases analyses. (4)The H-κ stacking of receiver functions is used to calculate the velocity ratio. Because P-wave velocity is given, this method can only be applied when the Ps converted wave velocity of Moho surface of receiver functions changes before an earthquake. With the application of receiver functions to the analysis of more earthquake cases, we can gain more insights into the variation of crustal medium parameters during the seismogenic process. This observation indicates that the receiver function method may become a new approach to detect the Poisson's ratio change of the crustal media before strong earthquake under the condition of high seismic network density.