国内外冰碛湖溃决研究进展

末次冰期以来,气候变暖导致全球高山地区的冰川环境变化剧烈,冰碛湖稳定性降低导致溃决频率增加,成为中国、尼泊尔、俄罗斯、秘鲁等10多个国家和地区频繁发生的冰川灾害类型之一。冰碛湖溃决诱发形成的洪水和泥石流,由于规模巨大、成灾速度快和波及范围广等特点,造成下游地区的基础设施和生命财产遭受惨重损失。本文通过对国内外冰碛湖溃决事件、溃决诱因、溃决模式和溃决洪水特征4个方面研究现状和发展现状的梳理和分析,总结经验和思路,从而为冰碛湖溃决研究和评价提供借鉴和参考。     

冰碛湖溃决泥石流流量计算方法

冰碛湖溃决泥石流是高山高寒地区一种常见的灾害类型,虽爆发频率低,但造成的危害极大,该类型的泥石流防治是区域开发建设中必须要面对的问题,而流量计算又是其核心问题之一。以西藏地区近100 a以来的冰碛湖溃决实例为基础,探讨了溃口深度的计算方法;以逐渐溃决模型和配方法为基础,分析了冰碛湖溃决泥石流的容重峰值流量与洪峰演进计算方法的适用性与流程;通过案例的对比研究,探讨了计算模型参数率定与误差来源。结果表明：瞬间溃决模型高估了冰碛湖溃决泥石流的峰值流量,泥石流的预测值偏保守;而逐渐溃决模型更接近于冰碛湖溃决的物理机制,在冰川U型谷内,可不考虑泥石流的堵塞作用,泥石流的峰值流量预测值与实测值较吻合;在冰川U型谷外或近沟口段则需考虑泥石流的堵塞作用。文中提出的计算模型作为冰碛湖溃决泥石流防治工程参数设计的依据是可行的。     

冰湖溃决泥石流的形成、演化与减灾对策

本文分析了主要由冰滑坡和冰崩入湖导致的冰湖溃决的机理和条件.进而,从气候条件、水文条件、终碛堤、冰湖规模、冰滑坡、沟床特征和固体物质补给等方面分析了冰湖溃决泥石流的形成条件和特点,归纳出冰湖溃决泥石流沿程演化的6种模式:溃决洪水-稀性泥石流、溃决洪水-黏性泥石流、溃决洪水-稀性泥石流-黏性泥石流、溃决洪水-黏性泥石流-稀性泥石流、溃决洪水-稀性泥石流-黏性泥石流-稀性泥石流和溃决洪水-黏性泥石流-稀性泥石流-洪水.针对冰湖溃决泥石流突发性强、频度低、洪峰高、流量大、流量过程暴涨暴落、破坏力强和灾害波及范围广等特点,提出了7点减灾对策.     

基于动力过程的冰湖溃决洪水侵蚀演化特征研究北大核心CSCD

冰湖溃决洪水具有范围广、持续时间长、危害大并经常伴随有泥石流发生等特点。目前针对冰湖溃决洪水动力演化特征的定量研究相对匮乏。为此,对次仁玛错冰湖溃决洪水灾害演化特征进行研究,以实地调查及多期遥感影像为基础,并采用泥沙输移模型和水动力模型耦合方法揭示冰湖溃决洪水侵蚀演化特征。模型基于精度为12.5 m的数字高程(DEM)地形数据,模拟反演1981年次仁玛错冰湖溃决洪水动力演化过程,与实测结果进行对比,验证模型的适用性和可行性,并对冰湖再次溃决进行预测分析,定量评价冰湖溃决洪水在演进过程中流深、流速、侵蚀和沉积特征。溃决洪水在演进过程中对章藏布支沟冰碛物及下游沟岸松散坡积物进行冲刷侵蚀,高含沙洪水逐渐演化为稀性泥石流,在707滑坡处流深8~10 m,最大流速13.7 m·s^(-1),侵蚀深度8~9 m。稀性泥石流在主沟沉积形成堰塞坝,坝高9~11 m,短暂堵塞波曲河。稀性泥石流对樟木口岸下游滑坡群坡脚进行冲刷侧蚀,侵蚀深度约10~13 m,易引发大规模次生灾害,稀性泥石流到达水电站处,淤埋水电站进水口,导致水电站失效。整体来看,溃决洪水在演进过程中,洪水对上游沟床及沟岸进行强烈的侵蚀夹带,洪峰流量增强,在中游,稀性泥石流对沟岸进行侧蚀,在沟道狭窄处流速增大,下切侵蚀增强,在沟道宽阔处,流速降低,固体物质沉积,整体达到冲淤平衡,洪峰流量随距离逐渐衰减,至下游,沟道地形开阔,流速放缓,稀性泥石流逐渐沉积,同时对沟道两岸进行侧蚀,整体为沉积。模型可以良好地揭示冰湖溃决洪水灾害侵蚀演化动力特征。     

冰碛湖溃决易发性的定量评价

世界范围内的冰碛湖溃决往往造成巨大经济损失和人员伤亡.通过分析不含死冰的冰碛坝溃决机理和相关影响因素,采用控制变量法,以喜马拉雅山区21个溃决冰碛湖及其周围未溃决冰碛湖为研究对象,采用6个无量纲影响因子可以合理评估喜马拉雅山区和加拿大哥伦比亚省西南地区以及美国西北部地区的冰湖溃决易发性,但喜马拉雅山区不同级别判别阈值较加拿大哥伦比亚省西南地区偏大.危险冰体坡度因子、危险冰体温度因子、冰川坡向因子、危险冰体与冰碛湖体积因子、危险冰体与冰湖的运动因子、冰碛坝坡度因子是影响不含死冰冰碛湖溃决的主要因子,由这些影响因子构成的冰碛湖溃决易发性定量评价方法,可以用于其他地区的冰碛湖溃决易发性评价.      

2013年西藏嘉黎县“7.5”冰湖溃决洪水成因及潜在危害

冰湖溃决洪水（泥石流）是西藏自治区主要自然灾害之一. 2013年7月5日,西藏自治区嘉黎县忠玉乡发生“7.5”冰湖溃决洪水灾害事件,导致人员失踪,房屋被毁,桥梁、道路等基础设施遭到严重破坏,直接经济损失高达2.7亿元. 基于不同时间段地形图和遥感影像资料,利用地理信息技术,发现导致“7.5”洪灾的溃决冰湖为然则日阿错. 该冰湖溃决的直接诱因可能是雪崩和冰崩的共同作用,溃决前的强降水过程及气温的快速上升是其间接原因,而冰湖长期稳定的扩张导致水量聚集是其溃决并造成巨大灾害的基础. 然则日阿错溃决后形成2个冰湖,面积分别为0.25 km²和0.01 km²,再次发生溃决的概率极小. 这次溃决洪水和泥石流灾害事件阻塞了尼都藏布的罗琼沟及衣布沟,并形成2处面积分别为0.33 km²和0.13 km²堰塞湖,且存在溃决风险,在今后一段时间内应加强监测工作与排险工程实施.     

雅鲁藏布江色东普沟冰崩—堵江—溃决灾害数值模拟

为了揭示雅鲁藏布江色东普沟2018年10月17日冰崩—堵江—溃决灾害链的动力演化过程,基于Massflow数值模拟仿真平台,使用Fortran编程语言,根据研究区域地质条件特征对程序进行二次开发以优化Voellmy模型,模拟冰崩—泥石流动力过程;将模拟泥石流得到的堰塞坝体嵌入地形中,运用ArcGIS计算堰塞湖范围及体积,通过Manning模型模拟堰塞湖溃决洪水动力过程。采用分段模拟法再现冰崩—泥石流—堵江—堰塞湖—溃坝的完整动力过程,对泥石流运动过程中的流速、流深,坝体高度,溃决洪水的流深、流速等参数进行定量化研究,为色东普流域的防灾减灾工作提供有效支撑。为了揭示雅鲁藏布江色东普沟2018年10月17日冰崩-堵江-溃决灾害链的动力演化过程,采用Massflow数值模拟仿真平台,以Fortran语言为编程手段,根据研究区域地质条件特征对程序进行二次开发优化Voellmy模型,模拟冰崩-泥石流动力过程;将模拟泥石流所得到的堰塞坝体嵌入地形中,采用ArcGIS计算堰塞湖范围及体积,通过曼宁模型模拟堰塞湖溃决洪水动力过程。采用分段模拟法再现冰崩-泥石流-堵江-堰塞湖-溃坝的完整动力过程,对泥石流运动过程中的流速、流深,坝体高度,溃决洪水的流深、流速等参数进行定量化研究,为色东普流域的防灾减工作提供有效支撑。     

亚洲高山区冰湖溃决洪水事件回顾

冰湖溃决洪水是由冰湖快速大量释水所导致的自然灾害。在全球变暖背景下,亟待建立完整的冰湖溃决洪水数据库,以进一步对冰湖进行危险性评估和风险管理。整理了亚洲高山区（青藏高原及周边地区）的冰湖溃决洪水资料,得出冰湖溃决洪水主要分布在天山山脉、喀喇昆仑山、喜马拉雅山脉、念青唐古拉山、横断山等区域。20世纪以来,亚洲高山区共计发生冰湖溃决洪水277起,其中冰碛湖溃决洪水113起,冰坝湖溃决洪水164起。导致冰碛湖溃决的诱因以冰-雪崩或冰川滑塌为主导,占50.1%,埋藏冰融化或管涌、强降水或上游来水、滑坡-岩崩以及地震占比分别为23.1%、18.5%、7.4%和0.9%。1980年以来,冰碛湖溃决洪水的发生频率呈较弱的增长趋势;但由于发生溃决的冰湖趋于小型化,其溃决水量与洪峰流量在喜马拉雅山脉、天山山脉等地区呈显著下降趋势。2010—2018年间喜马拉雅山脉中段发生8起冰湖溃决洪水事件,远高于天山山脉、喜马拉雅山脉东段和念青唐古拉山等地区,成为新的高发区,是未来重点关注的地区。在未来冰湖溃决洪水频率可能增加的状况下,相关国家和地区在应对冰川灾害、实现区域防灾减灾等方面需要加强沟通交流,共同建立跨区域协调的防灾体系。     

冰湖溃决洪水的二维水动力学数值模拟

为分析冰湖溃决洪水过程,建立了一个二维非恒定流数值模型,可以定量的开展冰湖溃决洪水预测.数值模型的基本控制方程采用二维浅水水流方程,数值方法采用可以捕捉激波的WAF TVD二阶精度格式,并用非界面追踪的方法处理干湿边界.通过理想情况下一维解析解的验证和二维复杂地形情况的数值试验,证明数值模型具有较好的精度和可靠性,并且可以适应复杂地形.将数值模型应用于一个典型的冰湖溃决事件,定量地预估了该冰湖溃决洪水过程,结果表明:水流流速很高,床面剪切应力很大,可能诱发活跃的泥沙运动,形成泥石流灾害.     

冰湖溃决泥石流形成的临界条件

随着全球气候的变暖, 在世界上许多高山峡谷区的冰湖溃决及其溃决洪水引发的泥石流, 经常对下游居民及其他基础设施造成极为严重的危害. 使用水槽试验的方法, 从单宽流量和库容、沟道纵坡、堆积物粒径3个方面探讨了冰湖溃决泥石流形成的影响因素和临界条件. 结果显示: 冰湖溃决泥石流形成与否不仅与溃决洪水提供的能量有关, 还与参与泥石流活动的沟床物质特性紧密相关. 通过对试验数据的分析, 当泥石流形成的特征参数K>2.66时, 冰湖溃决洪水可以演化为泥石流. 该种方法可以对危险性冰湖的预测提供理论参考.     

A procedure for making objective preliminary assessments of outburst flood hazard from moraine-dammed lakes in southwestern British Columbia

Existing methods of evaluating the hazard posed by moraine-dammed lakes are unsystematic, subjective, and depend on the expertise and biases of the geoscientist. In this paper, we provide a framework for making objective preliminary assessments of outburst flood hazard in southwestern British Columbia. Our procedure relies on remote sensing methods and requires only limited knowledge of glacial processes so that evaluations of outburst flood hazard can be incorporated into routine hazard assessments of glaciated regions. We describe objective approaches, which incorporate existing empirical relations applicable to the study region, for estimating outburst peak discharge, maximum volume, maximum travel distance, maximum area of inundation, and probability. Outburst flood hazard is greatest for moderately large lakes that are impounded by large, narrow, ice-free moraine dams composed of sedimentary rock debris and drain into steep, sediment-filled gullies above major river valleys. We demonstrate the application of the procedure using three case studies and show that flood hazard varies, especially with major changes in lake level. Our assessment scheme yields reproducible results and enables engineers and geoscientists to prioritize potentially hazardous lakes for more detailed field investigation.     

滑坡堰塞湖溃决风险与过程研究进展

滑坡堰塞湖是山区常见的一种自然灾害, 对其溃决风险与过程的科学认知和合理评估是应急处置的关键。外荷载作用下滑坡堰塞体的力学响应、滑坡堰塞湖渐进破坏机理与溃决洪水预测理论是滑坡堰塞湖风险评估研究领域的关键科学问题。本文围绕滑坡堰塞湖形成后的溃决风险与过程展开综述, 从定性和定量的角度分别对堰塞湖危险性评价方法进行分析总结, 从小尺度、大尺度和超重力场试验技术的角度总结了堰塞湖的溃决机理、溃决过程及其影响因素, 从数学方法的角度对堰塞湖溃决洪水预测中经验公式法、简化和精细化数值模拟方法的进展进行总结评价。然而, 国内外关于滑坡堰塞湖风险评估领域的研究仍处于起步阶段, 空-天-地一体化监测技术、堰塞湖危险性评价中的不确定性问题、堰塞体材料冲蚀特性与溃决机理、堰塞湖溃决洪水精细化模拟等将是未来的重点研究方向。本综述可为堰塞湖防灾减灾和流域水工程风险管理提供有价值的参考。     

Glacial lakes of the Hinku and Hongu valleys, Makalu Barun National Park and Buffer Zone, Nepal

In recent decades, many of the larger glaciers in the Himalaya and Andes that have experienced increased melting have become glacial lakes. Some of these lakes present a risk of glacial lake outburst floods that can unleash stored lake water and eroded debris, often causing enormous devastation downstream. Many of these new glacial lakes have formed in the Mt. Everest and Makalu Barun National Parks of Nepal, nine of which in the remote Hinku and Hongu valleys have been designated as “potentially dangerous” based on remote sensing analyses. Until recently, however, relatively little ground-based information was available for these lakes, including their physical characteristics, danger level, prospective downstream impacts in the event of an outburst, and mitigation methods appropriate and applicable to remote regions within the Nepal Himalaya. This paper describes three separate, interdisciplinary expeditions to the Hinku and Hongu valleys between 2009 and 2012 that were designed to close these information gaps. Each expedition combined remote sensing with field-based analyses, repeat photography, interviews with local people, bathymetric surveys, ground penetrating radar, and flood modeling. Eight of the “potentially dangerous” lakes surveyed were found to be stable, and one that had escaped mention in previous studies (L464) was found to contain a high risk of an outburst flood. In the data-deficient high mountain world, we suggest that the combined use of sophisticated remote sensing and modeling technologies with traditional, field-based methods can provide the most thorough understanding of glacial lakes possible at this time, including the actual risks that they pose as well as the most appropriate and community-based risk reduction strategies.     

Debris flows triggered from non-stationary glacier lake outbursts: the case of the Teztor Lake complex (Northern Tian Shan,Kyrgyzstan)

One of the most far-reaching glacier-related hazards in the Tian Shan Mountains of Kyrgyzstan is glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and related debris flows. An improved understanding of the formation and evolution of glacial lakes and debris flow susceptibility is therefore essential to assess and mitigate potential hazards and risks. Non-stationary glacier lakes may fill periodically and quickly; the potential for them to outburst increases as water volume may change dramatically over very short periods of time. After the outburst or drainage of a lake, the entire process may start again, and thus these non-stationary lakes are of particular importance in the region. In this work, the Teztor lake complex, located in Northern Kyrgyzstan, was selected for the analysis of outburst mechanisms of non-stationary glacial lakes, their formation, as well as the triggering of flows and development of debris flows and floods downstream of the lakes. The different Teztor lakes are filled with water periodically, and according to field observations, they tend to outburst every 9–10 years on average. The most important event in the area dates back to 1953, and another important event occurred on July 31, 2012. Other smaller outbursts have been recorded as well. Our study shows that the recent GLOF in 2012 was caused by a combination of intense precipitation during the days preceding the event and a rapid rise in air temperatures. Analyses of features in the entrainment and depositional zones point to a total debris flow volume of about 200,000 m³, with discharge ranging from 145 to 340 m³ s^?1 and flow velocities between 5 and 7 m s^?1. Results of this study are key for a better design of sound river corridor planning and for the assessment and mitigation of potential GLOF hazards and risks in the region.     

希夏邦马峰东坡冰川与冰川湖泊变化遥感监测

1977-2003年的遥感影像显示,希夏邦马峰东坡的冰川在迅速退缩,而其相应的冰川湖泊在迅速增大.南部的吉葱普冰川每年的退缩速度57099 m²,冰舌退缩48 m·a^-1,相应的卢姆池米冰湖面积增加速度大约为79048 m²·a^-1;北面的热强冰川退缩速度在63224 m²·a^-1,冰舌退缩71 m·a^-1,相应的扛西错冰湖面积增加约73 425 m²·a^-1.从这两个冰湖的类型和变化分析,认为其具有发生冰川湖泊溃决洪水的潜在危险.     

秦巴山区地质灾害发育规律研究——以镇巴县幅为例

以镇巴县幅为例,通过现场地质灾害调查、无人机航拍、室内遥感解译的方法,统计斜坡地质灾害的分布与地貌、坡度、坡向、斜坡结构类型、水系与公路的相关性,得出以下结论：1）斜坡灾害发育与地貌紧密相关,低山区与中山区斜坡地质灾害占灾害总数的96.97%.2）斜坡灾害主要分布在20～40°坡度区间内,灾害数目占总斜坡灾害数目的75.76%.3）41%的斜坡灾害分布在东、西两个方向斜坡上.4）顺向坡最易发育地质灾害,顺向坡地质灾害数量占总数的33%.5）河流对地质灾害有很强的控制作用,45.45%的地质灾害发生在距河流200 m范围内.6）研究区内斜坡灾害与人类工程活动特别是修建公路有很强的相关性,公路两侧50 m范围内发育斜坡灾害数量占总数的55.56%.结合研究区地质灾害发育规律及遥感影像特征,总结出一套适用于陕南秦巴山区的斜坡灾害识别方法,可为防灾减灾及灾害识别提供技术支持.     

Deriving landslide dam geometry from remote sensing images for the rapid assessment of critical parameters related to dam-breach hazards

Dam-breaches that cause outburst floods may induce downstream hazards. Because landslide dams can breach soon after they are formed, it is critical to assess the stability quickly to enable prompt action. However, dam geometry, an essential component of hazard evaluation, is not available in most cases. Our research proposes a procedure that utilizes post-landslide orthorectified remote sensing images and the pre-landslide Digital Terrain Model in the Geographic Information System to estimate the geometry of a particular dam. The procedure includes the following three modules: (1) the selection of the reference points on the dam and lake boundaries, (2) the interpolation of the dam-crest elevation, and (3) the estimation of dam-geometry parameters (i.e., the height, length, and width), the catchment area, the volumes of barrier lake and landslides dam. This procedure is demonstrated through a case study of the Namasha Landslide Dam in Taiwan. It was shown the dam-surface elevation estimated from the proposed procedure can approximate the elevation derived from profile leveling after the formation of the landslide dam. Thus, it is feasible to assess the critical parameters required for the landslide dam hazard assessment rapidly once the ortho-photo data are available. The proposed procedure is useful for quick and efficient decision making regarding hazard mitigation.     

我国西藏地区冰湖溃决灾害综述

冰湖溃决是我国西藏地区典型的地质灾害类型之一,具有突发性强、规模大、破坏力强和危害范围广等特点,往往造成下游地区遭受惨重的生命财产损失。冰湖溃决成因特征是形成机制、早期识别和危险性评价等冰湖溃决研究的基础,受客观条件限制,我国西藏冰湖溃决的基础调查工作存在资料分散甚至缺失的局限性。为解决这个难题,通过资料收集、遥感解译和野外调查等技术手段,重新梳理了我国西藏地区的冰湖溃决事件及基本特征,共调查出33个冰湖37次溃决事件,其中2个为冰川阻塞湖（简称冰川湖）,划定了冰湖溃决高发地带的地理分布位置,分析出冰崩/冰滑坡、埋藏冰融化、冰川融水、强降水、泥石流和上游冰湖溃决洪水6种诱发原因,为我国西藏冰湖溃决研究提供基础调查成果和参考依据。