Different Periodicities in the Sunspot Area and the Occurrence of Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycle 23 – 24

In order to investigate the relationship between magnetic-flux emergence, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we study the periodicity in the time series of these quantities. It has been known that solar flares, sunspot area, and photospheric magnetic flux have a dominant periodicity of about 155 days, which is confined to a part of the phase of the solar cycle. These periodicities occur at different phases of the solar cycle during successive phases. We present a time-series analysis of sunspot area, flare and CME occurrence during Cycle 23 and the rising phase of Cycle 24 from 1996 to 2011. We find that the flux emergence, represented by sunspot area, has multiple periodicities. Flares and CMEs, however, do not occur with the same period as the flux emergence. Using the results of this study, we discuss the possible activity sources producing emerging flux.     

An Analysis of Polar Coronal Hole Evolution: Relations to Other Solar Phenomena and Heliospheric Consequences

We use observations of the green corona low-brightness regions to construct a time series of a polar coronal hole area from 1939 to 1996, covering 5 solar cycles. We then perform a power-spectral analysis of the monthly data time series. Several persistent significant periodicities appear in the spectra, which are related with those found in solar magnetic flux emergence, geomagnetic storm sudden commencements and cosmic-ray flux at Earth. Of particular importance are the peak at around 1.6–1.8 yr recently found in cosmic-ray intensity fluctuations, and the peak at around 1 yr, also identified in coronal hole magnetic flux variations. Additional interesting features are the peaks close to 5 yr, 3 yr and the possible peak at around 30 yr, that were also found in other solar and interplanetary phenomena. Our results stress the physical connection between the solar magnetic flux emergence and the interplanetary medium dynamics, in particular the importance of coronal hole evolution in the structuring of the heliosphere.     

Magnetic Helicity Budget of Solar-Active Regions from the Photosphere to Magnetic Clouds

We have analyzed the long-term evolution of two active regions (ARs) from their emergence through their decay using observations from several instruments on board SoHO (MDI, EIT and LASCO) and Yohkoh/SXT. We have computed the evolution of the relative coronal magnetic helicity combining data from MDI and SXT with a linear force-free model of the coronal magnetic field. Next, we have computed the injection of helicity by surface differential rotation using MDI magnetic maps. To estimate the depletion of helicity we have counted all the CMEs of which these ARs have been the source, and we have evaluated their magnetic helicity assuming a one to one correspondence with magnetic clouds with an average helicity contain. When these three values (variation of coronal magnetic helicity, injection by differential rotation and ejection via CMEs) are compared, we find that surface differential rotation is a minor contributor to the helicity budget since CMEs carry away at least 10 times more helicity than the one differential rotation can provide. Therefore, the magnetic helicity flux needed in the global balance should come from localized photospheric motions that, at least partially, reflect the emergence of twisted flux tubes. We estimate that the total helicity carried away in CMEs can be provided by the end-to-end helicity of the flux tubes forming these ARs. Therefore, we conclude that most of the helicity ejected in CMEs is generated below the photosphere and emerges with the magnetic flux.     

A Numerical Study of the Response of the Coronal Magnetic Field to Flux Emergence

Large-scale solar eruptions, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), are regarded as the main drivers of space weather. The exact trigger mechanism of these violent events is still not completely clear; however, the solar magnetic field indisputably plays a crucial role in the onset of CMEs. The strength and morphology of the solar magnetic field are expected to have a decisive effect on CME properties, such as size and speed. This study aims to investigate the evolution of a magnetic configuration when driven by the emergence of new magnetic flux in order to get a better insight into the onset of CMEs and their magnetic structure. The three-dimensional, time-dependent equations for ideal magnetohydrodynamics are numerically solved on a spherical mesh. New flux emergence in a bipolar active region causes destabilisation of the initial stationary structure, finally resulting in an eruption. The initial magnetic topology is suitable for the ??breakout?? CME scenario to work. Although no magnetic flux rope structure is present in the initial condition, highly twisted magnetic field lines are formed during the evolution of the system as a result of internal reconnection due to the interaction of the active region magnetic field with the ambient field. The magnetic energy built up in the system and the final speed of the CME depend on the strength of the overlying magnetic field, the flux emergence rate, and the total amount of emerged flux. The interaction with the global coronal field makes the eruption a large-scale event, involving distant parts of the solar surface.     

Fluctuations of the Solar Dynamo Observed in the Solar Wind and Interplanetary Magnetic Field at 1 AU and in the Outer Heliosphere

Recent helioseismic observations have found strong fluctuations at a period of about 1.3 years in the rotation speed around the tachocline in the deep solar convection layer. Similar mid-term quasi-periodicities (MTQP; periods between 1–2 years) are known to occur in various solar atmospheric and heliospheric parameters for centuries. Since the deep convection layer is the expected location of the solar magnetic dynamo, its fluctuations could modulate magnetic flux generation and cause related MTQP fluctuations at the solar surface and beyond. Accordingly, it is likely that the heliospheric MTQP periodicities reflect similar changes in solar dynamo activity. Here we study the occurrence of the MTQP periodicities in the near and distant heliosphere in the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field observed by several satellites at 1 AU and by four interplanetary probes (Pioneer 10 and 11 and Voyager 1 and 2) in the outer heliosphere. The overall structure of MTQP fluctuations in the different locations of the heliosphere is very consistent, verifying the solar (not heliospheric) origin of these periodicities. We find that the mid-term periodicities were particularly strong during solar cycle 22 and were observed at two different periods of 1.3 and 1.7 years simultaneously. These periodicities were latitudinally organized so that the 1.3-year periodicity was found in solar wind speed at low latitudes and the 1.7-year periodicity in IMF intensity at mid-latitudes. While all heliospheric results on the 1.3-year periodicity are in a good agreement with helioseismic observations, the 1.7-year periodicity has so far not been detected in helioseismic observations. This may be due to temporal changes or due to the helioseismic method where hemispherically antisymmetric fluctuations would so far have remained hidden. In fact, there is evidence that MTQP fluctuations may occur antisymmetrically in the northern and southern solar hemisphere. Moreover, we note that the MTQP pattern was quite different during solar cycles 21 and 22, implying fundamental differences in solar dynamo action between the two halves of the magnetic cycle.     

Periodicities of solar irradiance and solar activity indices,II

Using a dynamic power spectral analysis technique, the time-varying nature of solar periodicities is investigated for background X-ray flux, 10.7 cm flux, several indices to UV chromospheric flux, total solar irradiance, projected sunspot areas, and a sunspot blocking function. Many prior studies by a host of authors have differed over a wide range on solar periodicities. This investigation was designed to help resolve the differences by examining how periodicities change over time, and how the power spectra of solar data depend on the layer of the solar atmosphere. Using contour diagrams that show the percent of total power over time for periods ranging from 8 to 400 days, the transitory nature of solar periodicities is demonstrated, including periods at 12–14, 26–28, 51–52, and approximately 154 days. Results indicate that indices related to strong magnetic fields show the greatest variation in the number of periodicities, seldom persist for more than three solar rotations, and are highly variable in their frequency and amplitude. Periodicities found in the chromospheric indices are fewer, persist for up to 8–12 solar rotations, and are more stable in their frequency and amplitude. An additional result, found in all indices to varying degrees and related to the combined effects of solar rotation and active region evolution, is the fashion in which periodicities vary from about 20 to 36 days. I conclude that the solar data examined here are both quasi-periodic and quasistationary, with chromospheric indices showing the longest intervals of stationarity, and data representing strong magnetic fields showing the least stationarity. These results may have important implications to the results of linear statistical analysis techniques that assume stationarity, and in the interpretation of time series studies of solar variability.     

On midrange periodicities in solar radio flux and sunspot areas

Using the Hilbert-Huang transform technique, we investigate the midrange periodicities in solar radio flux at 2800 MHz (F10.7) and sunspot areas (SAs) from February 1, 1947 to September 30, 2016. The following prominent results are found: (1) The quasi-periodic oscillations of both data sets are not identical, such as the rotational cycle, the midrange periodicities, and the Schwabe cycle. In particular, the midrange periodicities ranging from 37.9 days to 297.3 days are related to the magnetic Rossby-type waves; (2) The 1.3-year and 1.7-year fluctuations in solar activity indicators are surface manifestations (from photosphere to corona) of magnetic flux changes generated deep inside the Sun; (3) At the timescale of the Schwabe cycle, the complicated phase relationships in the three intervals (1947–1958, 1959–1988, and 1989–2016) agree with the produced periodicities of the magnetic Rossby-type waves. The findings indicate that the magnetic Rossby-type waves are the possible physical mechanism behind the midrange periodicities of solar activity indicators. Moreover, the significant change in the relationship between photospheric and coronal activity took place after the maximum of solar cycle 22 could be interpreted by the magnetic Rossby-type waves.     

The “Floor” in the Interplanetary Magnetic Field: Estimation on the Basis of Relative Duration of ICME Observations in Solar Wind During 1976 – 2000

Measurement of the floor in the interplanetary magnetic field and estimation of the time-invariant open magnetic flux of the Sun require knowledge of closed magnetic flux carried away by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In contrast with previous papers, we do not use global solar parameters to estimate such values: instead we identify different large-scale types of solar wind for the 1976 – 2000 interval to obtain the fraction of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs). By calculating the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field B averaged over two Carrington rotations, the floor of the magnetic field can be estimated from the B value at a solar cycle minimum when the number of ICMEs is minimal. We find a value of 4.65±0.6 nT, in good agreement with previous results.     

How are Emerging Flux,Flares and CMEs Related to Magnetic Polarity Imbalance in Midi Data?

In order to understand whether major flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be related to changes in the longitudinal photospheric magnetic field, we study 4 young active regions during seven days of their disk passage. This time period precludes any biases which may be introduced in studies that look at the field evolution during the short-term flare or CME period only. Data from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) with a time cadence of 96 min are used. Corrections are made to the data to account for area foreshortening and angle between line of sight and field direction, and also the underestimation of the flux densities. We make a systematic study of the evolution of the longitudinal magnetic field, and analyze flare and CME occurrence in the magnetic evolution. We find that the majority of CMEs and flares occur during or after new flux emergence. The flux in all four active regions is observed to have deviations from polarity balance both on the long term (solar rotation) and on the short term (few hours). The long-term imbalance is not due to linkage outside the active region; it is primarily related to the east–west distance from central meridian, with the sign of polarity closer to the limb dominating. The sequence of short-term imbalances are not closely linked to CMEs and flares and no permanent imbalance remains after them. We propose that both kinds of imbalance are due to the presence of a horizontal field component (parallel to the photospheric surface) in the emerging flux.     

Initiation of cmes by magnetic flux emergence

The initiation of solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is studied in the framework of numerical magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). The initial CME model includes a magnetic flux rope in spherical, axi-symmetric geometry. The initial configuration consists of a magnetic flux rope embedded in a gravitationally stratified solar atmosphere with a background dipole magnetic field. The flux rope is in equilibrium due to an image current below the photosphere. An emerging flux triggering mechanism is used to make this equilibrium system unstable. When the magnetic flux emerges within the filament below the flux rope, this results in a catastrophic behavior similar to previous models. As a result, the flux rope rises and a current sheet forms below it. It is shown that the magnetic reconnection in the current sheet below the flux rope in combination with the outward curvature forces results in a fast ejection of the flux rope as observed for solar CMEs. We have done a parametric study of the emerging flux rate.     

Magnetic source regions of coronal mass ejections

The majority of flare activity arises in active regions which contain sunspots, while Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) activity can also originate from decaying active regions and even so-called quiet solar regions which contain a filament. Two classes of CME, namely flare-related CME events and CMEs associated with filament eruption are well reflected in the evolution of active regions. The presence of significant magnetic stresses in the source region is a necessary condition for CME. In young active regions magnetic stresses are increased mainly by twisted magnetic flux emergence and the resulting magnetic footpoint motions. In old, decayed active regions twist can be redistributed through cancellation events. All the CMEs are, nevertheless, caused by loss of equilibrium of the magnetic structure. With observational examples we show that the association of CME, flare and filament eruption depends on the characteristics of the source regions:

?the strength of the magnetic field, the amount of possible free energy storage,

?the small- and large-scale magnetic topology of the source region as well as its evolution (new flux emergence, photospheric motions, cancelling flux), and

?the mass loading of the configuration (effect of gravity). These examples are discussed in the framework of theoretical models.

     

On the kinematic evolution of flare-associated cmes

We report a common tendency of the kinematic evolution of three flare-associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Their kinematic evolutions are examined using well-observed data (eruptive filaments, X-ray structures, and prominences) very close to the solar surface as well as SOHO/LASCO C2-C3 data. Their height–time data are fitted using three analytical models (exponential, power-law, and linear) to examine their kinematic behaviors. The speed and acceleration of the CMEs are then obtained from the analytical expressions of height–time data. From this analysis, it is found that the kinematic patterns of these three CMEs have a typical tendency; that is, the speed of the CMEs very close to the surface (lower corona) is approximately exponential in form, but it is nearly constant in the upper corona. The peak of the acceleration is found to occur within 2–3 solar radii and during the eruptive phase of the associated flare. It is also noted that the observed kinematic patterns are quite similar to those predicted by two flux rope emergence models: (i) a theoretical, electrodynamic model (Chen, 1996); and (ii) a numerical simulation, self-consistent, 2 ;D MHD model (Wu, Guo, and Dryer, 1997).     

A Parametric Survey of the CME Triggering Process by Numerical Simulations

Observations indicate that solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely associated with reconnection-favored flux emergence, which was explained in the emerging flux trigger mechanism for CMEs by Chen & Shibata based on numerical simulations. We present a parametric survey of the triggering agent: its polarity orientation, position, and the amount of the unsigned flux. The results suggest that whether a CME can be triggered depends on both the amount and location of the emerging flux, in addition to its polarity orientation. A diagram is presented to show the eruption and non-eruption regimes in the parameter space. The work is aimed at providing useful information for the space weather forecast.     

Systematic investigation of mid-term periodicity of the solar full-disk magnetic fields

The Magnetic Plage Strength Index(MPSI) and the Mount Wilson Sunspot Index(MWSI), which have been measured at Mount Wilson Observatory(MWO) since the 1970 s and which indicate weak and strong magnetic field activity on the solar full disk, respectively, are used to systematically investigate midterm periodicities in the solar full-disk magnetic fields. Multitudinous mid-term periodicities are detected in MPSI and MWSI on timescales of 0.3 to 4.5 yr, and these periodicities are found to fluctuate around several typical periodicities within a small amplitude in different solar cycles or phases. The periodicity of 3.44 yr is found in MPSI, and the periodicities of 3.85 and 3.00 yr are detected in MWSI. Our analysis indicates that they reflect the true oscillating signals of solar magnetic field activity. The typical periodicities are 2.8,2.3 and 1.8 yr in MPSI and MWSI, and possible mechanisms for these periodicities are discussed. A 1.3 yr periodicity is only detected in MPSI, and should be related to meridional flows on the solar surface. The typical annual periodicity of MPSI and MWSI is 1.07 yr, which is not derived from the annual variation of Earth's heliolatitude. Several periodicities shorter than 1 yr found in MPSI and MWSI are considered to be Rieger-type periodicities.     

Comparison of Helicity Signs in Interplanetary CMEs and Their Solar Source Regions

If all coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have flux ropes, then the CMEs should keep their helicity signs from the Sun to the Earth according to the helicity conservation principle. This study presents an attempt to answer the question from the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW), “Do all CMEs have flux ropes?”, by using a qualitative helicity sign comparison between interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) and their CME source regions. For this, we select 34 CME–ICME pairs whose source active regions (ARs) have continuous SOHO/MDI magnetogram data covering more than 24 hr without data gap during the passage of the ARs near the solar disk center. The helicity signs in the ARs are determined by estimation of cumulative magnetic helicity injected through the photosphere in the entire source ARs. The helicity signs in the ICMEs are estimated by applying the cylinder model developed by Marubashi (Adv. Space. Res., 26, 55, 2000) to 16 second resolution magnetic field data from the MAG instrument onboard the ACE spacecraft. It is found that 30 out of 34 events (88 %) are helicity sign-consistent events, while four events (12 %) are sign-inconsistent. Through a detailed investigation of the source ARs of the four sign-inconsistent events, we find that those events can be explained by the local helicity sign opposite to that of the entire AR helicity (28 July 2000 ICME), incorrectly reported solar source region in the CDAW list (20 May 2005 ICME), or the helicity sign of the pre-existing coronal magnetic field (13 October 2000 and 20 November 2003 ICMEs). We conclude that the helicity signs of the ICMEs are quite consistent with those of the injected helicities in the AR regions from where the CMEs erupted.     

Solar Sources of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During the Solar Cycle 23/24 Minimum

We examine solar sources for 20 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) observed in 2009 in the near-Earth solar wind. We performed a detailed analysis of coronagraph and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Our study shows that the coronagraph observations from viewpoints away from the Sun–Earth line are paramount to locate the solar sources of Earth-bound ICMEs during solar minimum. SOHO/LASCO detected only six CMEs in our sample, and only one of these CMEs was wider than 120^°. This demonstrates that observing a full or partial halo CME is not necessary to observe the ICME arrival. Although the two STEREO spacecraft had the best possible configuration for observing Earth-bound CMEs in 2009, we failed to find the associated CME for four ICMEs, and identifying the correct CME was not straightforward even for some clear ICMEs. Ten out of 16 (63 %) of the associated CMEs in our study were “stealth” CMEs, i.e. no obvious EUV on-disk activity was associated with them. Most of our stealth CMEs also lacked on-limb EUV signatures. We found that stealth CMEs generally lack the leading bright front in coronagraph images. This is in accordance with previous studies that argued that stealth CMEs form more slowly and at higher coronal altitudes than non-stealth CMEs. We suggest that at solar minimum the slow-rising CMEs do not draw enough coronal plasma around them. These CMEs are hence difficult to discern in the coronagraphic data, even when viewed close to the plane of the sky. The weak ICMEs in our study were related to both intrinsically narrow CMEs and the non-central encounters of larger CMEs. We also demonstrate that narrow CMEs (angular widths ≤?20^°) can arrive at Earth and that an unstructured CME may result in a flux rope-type ICME.     

Quasi-Simultaneous Flux Emergence in the Events of October – November 2003

From late October to the beginning of November 2003, a series of intense solar eruptive events took place on the Sun. More than six active regions (ARs), including three large ARs (NOAA numbers AR 10484, AR 10486, and AR 10488), were involved in the activity. Among the six ARs, four of them bear obviously quasi-simultaneous emergence of magnetic flux. Based on the global Hα and SOHO/EIT EUV observations, we found that a very long filament channel went through the six ARs. This implies that there is a magnetic connection among these ARs. The idea of large-scale magnetic connectivity among the ARs is supported by the consistency of the same chirality in the three major ARs and in their associated magnetic clouds. Although the detailed mechanisms for the quasi-simultaneous flux emergence and the large-scale flux system formation need to be extensively investigated, the observations provide new clues in studying the global solar activity.     

Relationships Among Magnetic Clouds, CMES, and Geomagnetic Storms

During solar cycle 23, 82 interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) were identified by the Magnetic Field Investigation (MFI) team using Wind (1995 – 2003) solar wind plasma and magnetic field data from solar minimum through the maximum of cycle 23. The average occurrence rate is 9.5 MCs per year for the overall period. It is found that some of the anomalies in the frequency of occurrence were during the early part of solar cycle 23: (i) only four MCs were observed in 1999, and (ii) an unusually large number of MCs (17 events) were observed in 1997, just after solar minimum. We also discuss the relationship between MCs, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and geomagnetic storms. During the period 1996 – 2003, almost 8000 CMEs were observed by SOHO-LASCO. The occurrence frequency of MCs appears to be related neither to the occurrence of CMEs as observed by SOHO LASCO nor to the sunspot number. When we included “magnetic cloud-like structures” (MCLs, defined by Lepping, Wu, and Berdichevsky, 2005), we found that the occurrence of the joint set (MCs + MCLs) is correlated with both sunspot number and the occurrence rate of CMEs. The average duration of the MCL structures is ~40% shorter than that of the MCs. The MCs are typically more geoeffective than the MCLs, because the average southward field component is generally stronger and longer lasting in MCs than in MCLs. In addition, most severe storms caused by MCs/MCLs with Dst _min≤ −100 nT occurred in the active solar period.     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.