青藏高原热状况对夏季西南地区气候影响的分析及模拟

应用诊断和数值模拟方法，研究了青藏高原热状况的特征及其对西南地区环流和降水等的影响。结果表明：青藏高原热源有不同的表征方法，它们相互联系、相互制约；冬季青藏高原测站温度与西南地区降水有着同期和滞后的相关关系，它的强弱对川渝等地降水有指示意义。高原测站温度呈上升趋势，这可能是造成四川盆地平均气温从20世纪中叶以来呈下降趋势的原因之一。同时，青藏高原热源强迫是大气环流系统形成和维持的重要原因，这种热源强迫有利于对流层低层气旋环流或低涡的生成、发展，也有利于季风环流增强，是造成青藏高原及周围地区以及高原东侧大范围降水变化的原因。     

2006年高原夏季风强弱变化及其与西南地区东部夏季气温和降水的关系

利用2006年西南地区东部37个测站逐日降水量、气温资料和NCEP/NCAR R2再分析日平均资料,通过相关分析和合成分析,研究分析了高原夏季风季节内变化特征,讨论了高原夏季风强弱变化特征及其与西南地区东部夏季气候的关系。结果表明:高原夏季风的变化和西南地区东部夏季气候变化关系密切。当高原夏季风偏强(弱)时,南亚高压、中高纬度环流、西太副高、西风带环流、低层流场以及垂直运动等均有显著变化,进而影响到西南地区东部夏季气候。高原夏季风的季节内变化与青藏高原大气热源呈显著正相关关系,青藏高原热力作用对高原夏季风的异常变化有重要作用。     

青藏高原地表热状况与华西秋雨

利用1961－1995年青藏高原及其邻近地区148个测站的月平均资料，分析研究了高原地面热源与华西秋雨的联系。结果表明，高原东部地面热源与华西秋雨存在着显著的负相关关系。高原东部地面热源异常强迫500hPa大气环流异常来制约华西秋雨的多寡。     

青藏高原夏季降水的区域特征及其与周边地区水汽条件的配置

使用青藏高原地区97个测站1961-2005年6～8月降水总量及同期NCEP/NCAR月平均 u, v风、比湿和300 hPa位势高度等再分析资料, 首先使用旋转经验正交函数分解方法得到青藏高原夏季降水的4种主要分布类型, 之后利用相关分析方法, 分析了与4种降水类型匹配的水汽输送以及相应的环流背景, 最后使用合成分析对高原异常旱涝年的水汽输送和环流形势的差异进行了分析.结果表明, 青藏高原夏季降水的主要气候特征是南部与北部降水异常呈现相反分布的特征, 其水汽输送和环流形势配置差异显著.如果孟加拉湾海区向北的水汽输送和东部海洋向西的水汽输送加强, 同时乌拉尔山阻高强盛, 东亚从低纬至高纬呈现 " - "位势高度环流形势时, 有利于西南水汽输送并与来自东部海洋的水汽形成辐合, 造成高原夏季降水偏多, 反之降水则偏少.     

夏季青藏高原大气热源与西南地区东部旱涝的关系

利用1959～2006年西南地区东部20个测站逐日降水量资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料,分析了夏季青藏高原大气热源特征,指出了影响西南地区东部夏季旱涝的热源关键区域,并就关键区大气热源对该区域夏季旱涝的影响进行了诊断,得出了以下主要结论:西南地区东部夏季降水与高原主体东南部的热源变化关系密切,当该区域(该区域...     

青藏高原冬季积雪关键区视热源特征与中国西南春旱的联系

利用1955-2010年地面气象站积雪深度、降水资料和NCEP再分析资料,采用统计相关,异常指数与相关矢等计算方法,对2010年西南春旱区域性特征、青藏高原积雪视热源特征进行了综合分析,研究了西南春旱典型区域,获得了影响西南地区春季降水的青藏高原积雪视热源关键区。对高原积雪关键区积雪深度与该区域大气视热源的相关性进行了综合分析,发现青藏高原积雪关键区2月的视热源代表性最好。重点分析了青藏高原积雪关键区2月大气视热源与后期西南严重春旱区降水的异常指数年际变化及其相关关系,结果表明,冬季青藏高原积雪关键区积雪浅、整层大气视热源偏高,有利于西南地区春季出现干燥的偏北气流,导致我国西南地区春雨异常偏少。青藏高原积雪关键区视热源对我国西南春旱预测具有明显的指示意义。     

1961—2018年西南地区夏季干旱变化特征及其与环流异常的联系

利用1961—2018年中国西南地区312站降水观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及海表温度资料,采用夏季SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index)指数作为干旱指数,研究了西南地区夏季干旱变化特征及其与环流异常的联系。结果表明:西南地区夏季总体呈现变干趋势,尤其在云南、四川东南部干旱化趋势显著。当西南地区夏季显著干旱时,该地区对流层低层辐散、上层辐合,且向该地区的水汽输送偏少。造成西南地区干旱维持的原因可归结为大气波动活动异常和海温异常强迫。前者通过西风带扰动向下游的能量频散,为西南地区低层辐散、上层辐合的环流异常的形成和维持提供了必要的扰动能量积聚;后者通过热带西北太平洋异常热源对大气的强迫,使得该地区对流层低层(上层)形成异常辐合(辐散),在西南地区和热带西北太平洋形成了斜向垂直环流,使西南地区受下沉气流控制,从而形成了利于降水显著偏少和干旱发生并维持的条件。     

“青藏高原加热引起的海陆热力差异对新疆夏季降水的影响机理研究”项目

正一、立项背景青藏高原是世界上最大最陡峭的大地形,其动力和热力作用是形成和维持北半球大气环流的重要原因之一,气流对热源的热力适应形成高原上空近地层低压和中高层的青藏高压,高原上空大尺度大气热源(汇)激发出的热力波及与之相联系的热量、动量传播对周边地区的天气气候有着重要影响。夏季青藏高原对流层低层环绕高原的气旋式环流加强,高原上空盛行上升气流,与之联系的高原北侧有补偿的下沉气流生成,在高原东南侧形成潮湿气候,西北侧形成干旱气候对新疆夏季降水有重要影响的副热带西风急流、南亚高压等大尺度环流系统,均和青藏高原下垫面热力异常     

高原大地形及海洋热力强迫对东亚及北半球环流和气候变化影响的观测研究

本文总结了“青藏高原大地形及西太平洋暖池势力强迫对东亚及全球气候变化的影响”专题五年来的主要研究工作。其中包括青世故高原东部大气热源的时间演变特征,夏半年高原热源异常对我国降水和北半球环流的影响;西沙海温变化特征及其与我南方降水的关系,北太平洋海温主因子特征及其与华南前汛期降水的变化。     

青藏高原地表热源异常与四川盆地夏季降水的关联

利用所计算的1961—1995年高原热源资料、四川与重庆的降水资料以及500hPa月平均高度场资料，分析了高原地表热源异常对四川盆地降水与旱涝的影响。结果表明，高原地表热源异常与四川盆地降水和旱涝有显著的相关；高原地表热源异常通过强迫500hPa东亚大气环流异常来影响四川盆地降水。     

北美洲冬季冷空气对南美洲夏季降水异常影响的研究

利用1981—2017年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和ECMWF再分析资料,研究了北美洲冬季高纬度冷空气对南美洲夏季降水异常的影响。结果表明,北美洲冬季高纬度冷空气通过影响向南越赤道气流的强弱,影响南美洲热带辐合带（intertropical convergence zone, ITCZ）位置和强度的变化,进一步引起南美洲天气的变化。北美洲冬季冷空气的南下过程能够引起80°～70°W的向南越赤道气流明显加强,导致2011年南美洲热带辐合带的位置异常偏南,强度异常偏强,是造成降水异常偏多的重要成因。通过相关分析发现北美洲冬季冷空气对南美洲ITCZ位置的影响更明显。     

开封市强对流天气的气候特征分析

利用开封辖区5站1961～2000年的气象资料,分析了开封市强对流天气发生的气候特征、变化趋势,并探讨其形成的原因.     

A Study on Frontal Motion over Orography

肖庆农，伍荣生ＡＳｔｕｄｙｏｎＦｒｏｎｔａｌＭｏｔｉｏｎｏｖｅｒＯｒｏｇｒａｐｈｙ￥ＸｉａｏＱｉｎｇｎｏｎｓａｎｄＷｕＲｏｎｇｓｈｅｎｇ（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＡｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃＳｃｉｅｎｃｅｓ，ＮａｎｊｉｎｇＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙ，Ｎａｍｉｎｇ...     

2006年中国气候回顾

2006年全国平均气温9.9℃,较常年偏高1.1℃,是自1951年有气象记录以来最暖的一年;与此同时,全国平均年降水量较常年略偏少,重庆、四川遭受特大高温伏旱。2006年,中国气候异常多变,气象灾害频发,其中台风和干旱造成的经济损失最为严重。年内有6个热带气旋登陆我国,且强度强、灾情重,是近10 a来登陆台风造成死亡人数最多的一年。     

Influence of monsoon over the warm pool on interannual variation on tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

The relationship between the interannual variation in tropical cyclone （TC） activity over the western North Pacific （WNP） and the thermal state over the warm pool （WP） is examined in this paper. The results show that the subsurface temperature in the WP is well correlated with TC geographical distribution and track type. Their relation is linked by the East Asian monsoon trough. During the warm years, the westward-retreating monsoon trough creates convergence and vorticity fields that are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the northwest of the WNP, whereas more TCs concentrating in the southeast result from eastward penetration of the monsoon trough during the cold years. The steering flows at 500 hPa lead to a westward displacement track in the warm years and recurving prevailing track in the cold years.
The two types of distinct processes in the monsoon environment triggering tropical cyclogenesis are hypothesized by composites centered for TC genesis location corresponding to two kinds of thermal states of the WP. During the warm years, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillation is active in the west of the WNP such that eastward-propagating westerlies cluster TC genesis in that region. In contrast, during the cold years, the increased cyclogenesis in the southeast of the WNP is mainly associated with tropical depression type disturbances transiting from equatorially trapped mixed Rossby gravity waves. Both of the processes may be fundamental mechanisms for the inherent interannual variation in TC activity over the WNP.     

华南海雾研究进展

从海雾的气候特征、生消机制、微物理化学特征、遥感监测和模式预报等方面,回顾近年来开展的华南地区海雾研究。结果表明：华南海雾研究已经取得了许多重要的研究成果,但对于华南海雾的年际、年代际特征,华南不同地区的海雾微物理化学特征以及海面海雾与陆面海雾观测对比研究还不够,遥感监测及模式预报方面还有一定欠缺。为了对华南海雾有更加深入的认识,这些方面的研究需要进一步加强。     

我国极端降水事件研究进展

全球变暖已经是既定的事实,在此背景下极端降水事件的频繁发生受到广泛的关注。从极端降水阈值的定义、极端降水变化特征、可能影响因子及模拟情况4个方面对国内近些年来极端降水事件的研究状况加以综述,指出目前对极端降水事件阈值的定义比较明确,极端降水长期变化特征有明显的区域性。由于我国降水状况受到东亚气候系统各个子系统的影响,其中机理极其复杂,所以对于极端降水的成因研究仍然不够彻底,相应地运用模式对其模拟和评估也有相对的不确定性。     

青藏高原大气臭氧研究

总结了国内外有关青藏高原大气臭氧方面开展的研究工作，并简要地介绍了1996－1999年利用NILUV观测仪器在拉萨地区进行臭氧和紫外辐射观测的初步结论。     

Dissipative effects on inertial flows over a sill

A systematic investigation of the effects of various parametrizations of dissipation, e.g. quadratic and linear frictional drag, harmonic lateral viscosity, and harmonic lateral diffusion on inertial flow over a sill and possible hydraulic control is presented. Rotation effects are ignored and the geometry is assumed to vary only slowly with downstream distance so that the flow may be considered one-dimensional. Results are given both for a single-active layer and for two-active layers with a rigid lid.If the parametrization is only a function of the dependent variables and not of their spatial derivatives, then it may be possible to hydraulically control the flow. A general expression is derived for the possible control point and the two gradients there, which are functions of the slope and possibly of flow rate. Specific energy is irreversibly removed from the flow and non-controlled as well as controlled flows can exhibit significant asymmetry in fluid depth over a sill. The upstream specific energy, and hence depth of the lower layer, of the controlled flow is greater than for an ideal fluid. Frictional effects modify the behaviour of long gravity waves, such that they are dispersive and damped with time. The system will only exhibit hydraulic control if these effects are small.For a viscous single layer of fluid, the gradient in surface elevation is always uniquely defined, so classically defined hydraulic control, as such, cannot exist. However, for values of non-dimensional lateral eddy viscosity coefficient, , where q is the flow rate, there is a narrow band of specific energies centred around that for the control solution in an ideal fluid, E_crit, for which the surface elevation, h is very asymmetric over the sill; the solutions resemble the inviscid, hydraulically controlled solutions. Outside this range, either the fluid depth tends to zero, or the surface elevation is almost uniform over the sill. A ‘control’-type solution exists which has the conjugate values of the inviscid equation up- and downstream of the sill, where the gradient in fluid depth, and hence the viscous term, is zero. For larger values of A_M, the band of specific energies is much wider, and the upstream specific energy of the ‘control’-type solution is much lower than that for an inviscid fluid. Long gravity waves are dispersive and damped with time. There is a short-wave cut-off, k² > h/(4A_M²), above which waves are stationary in the flow. Longer waves, k² h/(4A_M²), are critical if , as for an ideal fluid. If these waves can propagate significant distances, then any observed asymmetry in h will be due to inertial and not to viscous effects. The behaviour of unidirectional, two-layer flow is similar. The governing equation for viscous, two-layer exchange flow is singular, and typically excludes the ‘control’-type solutions found for unidirectional flows.Establishing the existence and behaviour of steady inertial flows in the presence of lateral diffusion between layers is more difficult. It significantly alters the single-layer solutions once the non-dimensional coefficient A_H is large, i.e. . The flow rate may become zero on the downslope as all the fluid diffuses into the inert, infinitely deep, overlaying layer. The fluid depth is maintained by reverse flow from downstream. In this case, the depth of the active layer tends to zero downstream for all values of specific energy. For two-layer flow, both unidirectional and exchange, the governing equation is such that the lower-layer flow rate and interfacial height return to their upstream values.Motivation for the study is provided by the increasingly fine spatial resolution achievable in large-scale numerical models of the ocean general circulation, and the question of whether they are capable of simulating some form of hydraulic control. Application to modelling oceanic flows over a sill is discussed.     

Study on Ozone Change over the Tibetan Plateau

This paper reviewed the main results with respect to the discovery of low center of total column ozone (TCO) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in summer, and its formation mechanism. Some important advances are summarized as follows: The fact is discovered that there is a TCO low center over the TP in summer, and the features of the background circulation over the TP are analyzed; it is confirmed that the TP is a pathway of mass exchange between the troposphere and stratosphere, and it influences the TCO low center over the TP in summer; models reproduce the TCO low center over the TP in summer, and the formation mechanism is explored; in addition, the analyses and diagnoses of the observation data indicate that not only there is the TCO low center over the TP in summer, but also TCO decrease trend over the TP is one of the strong centers of TCO decrease trend in the same latitude; finally, the model predicts the future TCO change over the TP.