A synoptic-climatic study of the onset of southwest monsoon over Mumbai

Surface and upper air synoptic features prevailing at the time of onset of southwest monsoon over Mumbai have been examined for a period of 50 years from 1947 to 1996. These synoptic situations have been found to fall under three broad categories. The study shows that on about 66% of the occasions, the onset of monsoon over Mumbai is caused by low pressure area forming over southeast and east central Arabian Sea as they move northwards, while on 28% of the occasions, the onset is due to the low pressure systems forming over northwest/head Bay of Bengal and their movement towards northwest/west northwest. Based on the findings of the study and the climatological aspects, a criterion for declaring onset over Mumbai has been suggested.     

Alcohol-related crime and disorder across urban space and time: evidence from a British city

Using a Police recording system containing new forms of information on the role of alcohol consumption, this paper focuses on the space and time dimensions of alcohol-related crime and disorder, and situates the patterns in the context of the functions of different urban spaces. Data for Worcester in 1999 show that alcohol is noted as a contributory factor in 8% of recorded crime, but that the recorded role of alcohol is far higher for certain crime types: 48% of all harassment crimes; 36% of violent crime and 16% of criminal damage (other). Most recorded alcohol-related crimes occur in the city centre and at night, while at a more detailed level the main urban spaces are the city centre night-time leisure zones, and the spaces which act as routeways for the night-time revellers. The combined crime and disorder data sets, supported by interview evidence, indicate subsidiary alcohol-related daytime clusters in the shopping area and associated with specific city centre functions. By exploring the patterns, important clues to the immediate contributory factors emerge, but a more comprehensive explanation requires further research. Places, particularly in the night-time leisure zone, where alcohol-related crime is less pronounced, are as important to our understanding as those where crime/disorder is clustered. A detailed knowledge of the variety of spaces and times of alcohol-related crime and disorder is key to the development of appropriate urban design, planning and licensing policies, and can be used to inform a more closely targeted policing strategy.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of sub-hourly rainfall over Mumbai,India: Is statistical forecasting futile?

Mumbai, the commercial and financial capital of India, experiences incessant annual rain episodes, mainly attributable to erratic rainfall pattern during monsoons and urban heat-island effect due to escalating urbanization, leading to increasing vulnerability to frequent flooding. After the infamous episode of 2005 Mumbai torrential rains when only two rain gauging stations existed, the governing civic body, the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM) came forward with an initiative to install 26 automatic weather stations (AWS) in June 2006 (MCGM 2007), which later increased to 60 AWS. A comprehensive statistical analysis to understand the spatio-temporal pattern of rainfall over Mumbai or any other coastal city in India has never been attempted earlier. In the current study, a thorough analysis of available rainfall data for 2006–2014 from these stations was performed; the 2013–2014 sub-hourly data from 26 AWS was found useful for further analyses due to their consistency and continuity. Correlogram cloud indicated no pattern of significant correlation when we considered the closest to the farthest gauging station from the base station; this impression was also supported by the semivariogram plots. Gini index values, a statistical measure of temporal non-uniformity, were found above 0.8 in visible majority showing an increasing trend in most gauging stations; this sufficiently led us to conclude that inconsistency in daily rainfall was gradually increasing with progress in monsoon. Interestingly, night rainfall was lesser compared to daytime rainfall. The pattern-less high spatio-temporal variation observed in Mumbai rainfall data signifies the futility of independently applying advanced statistical techniques, and thus calls for simultaneous inclusion of physics-centred models such as different meso-scale numerical weather prediction systems, particularly the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.     

Simulation of high-impact tropical weather events: comparative analysis of three heavy rainfall events

Episodes of heavy rainfall, although relatively rare, significantly contribute to the hydrological cycle due to the large quantum of rainfall in a short span of time. Accurate simulation of such heavy or extreme rainfall events therefore is an important benchmark for a model. Here, we consider the simulation of three heavy rainfall events (Mumbai, Bangalore and Chennai) that occurred over the Indian monsoon region in different geographical locations and seasons during 2005, using a mesoscale meteorological model, namely MM5V3. Simulations have been carried out at high resolution (2 km) to resolve orographic features and land–ocean gradients over the event locations with a 3-nest, 2-way configuration. The primary objective of this study is to carry out a multi-event, multi-location evaluation of the model configuration for simulating a class of heavy rainfall events and to compare some important meteorological features of the events. Our results have shown that a very high relative humidity, low-level convergence, convective instability in terms of equivalent potential temperature, high vertical velocity, smaller mixing ratio at low level and higher mixing ratio at upper level essentially dominated and sustained the convective dynamics in all the three events. It was also found that the latent heat flux (LHF) dominated coastal events (Mumbai and Chennai) with relatively much higher values compared to sensible heat flux (SHF) throughout the event life cycle. In the case of the Bangalore event, both LHF and SHF are comparable during the event life cycle.     

Seismic reliability-based analysis and GIS mapping of cyclic mobility of clayey soils of Mumbai city,India

Cyclic mobility is a mechanism of ground failure due to lateral spreading of soils during an earthquake that usually occurs in soft or medium stiff saturated soils. The simplified procedures developed by the researchers give a factor of safety for judging the cyclic mobility potential. However, the simplified procedures do not take into account the uncertainty in the parameters required to estimate the cyclic stresses in the soil. In this study, a reliability framework based on the simplified procedure, considering the parameter uncertainty, has been proposed for computing the probability of cyclic mobility of clay deposits for a metro city of India, i.e., Mumbai city (latitudes 18°53′N–19°19′N and longitudes 72°47′E–72°58′E). Extensive geotechnical borehole data from 1028 boreholes across 50 locations in the city area of 390 km² and laboratory test data are collected and analyzed thoroughly. A correlation between undrained shear strength (Su) and other parameters such as natural water content (w), SPT N value, liquid limit (LL) and plasticity index (PI) has been established for Mumbai city and has been used in the proposed approach. The sensitivity analysis of the proposed approach predicts that Su has significant influence in the evaluation of the cyclic mobility. Cyclic mobility hazard maps are prepared using the geo-statistical analysis tool in GIS, and it shows that the clayey soils at few locations have a 60–90 % probability of cyclic mobility for a moment magnitude (M _w) of an earthquake of 7.5. These hazard maps can be used by the geotechnical engineers for the cyclic mobility hazard assessment of Mumbai city.     

Spatial variation of probabilistic seismic hazard for Mumbai and surrounding region

Mumbai city, the economical capital of India, is located on the west coast of stable intra-plate continental region of Peninsular India which has an experience of significant historical earthquakes in the past. The city stood as the fourth most populous city in the world. Recent seismo-tectonic studies of this city highlighted the presence of active West coast fault and Chiplun fault beneath the Deccan basalt. In the present study, spatial variability of probabilistic seismic hazard for Mumbai region (latitudes of 18.85–19.35°N and longitudes of 72.80–73.15°E at a grid spacing of 0.05°) which includes Mumbai city, Suburban, part of Thane district and Navi Mumbai, in terms of ground motion parameters; peak horizontal acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1.0-s period for 2 and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years are generated. The epistemic uncertainty in hazard estimation is accounted by employing seven different ground motion prediction equations developed for worldwide shallow crustal intra-plate environments. Further, the seismic hazard results are deaggregated for Mumbai (latitude 18.94°N, longitude 72.84°E) to understand the relative contributions of earthquake sources in terms of magnitude and distance. The generated hazard maps are compared with the zoning specified by Indian seismic code (IS1893: Part 1 in Indian standard criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, Part 1—General provisions and buildings. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, India, 2002) for rocky site. Present results show an underestimation of potential seismic hazard in the entire study region by non-probabilistic zoning prescribed by IS1893: Part 1 with significantly higher seismic hazard values in the southern part of Navi Mumbai.     

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Estuarine Shoreline Change in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System,North Carolina,USA

Many shoreline studies rely on historical change rates determined from aerial imagery decades to over 50 years apart to predict shoreline position and determine setback distances for coastal structures. These studies may not illustrate the coastal impacts of short-duration but potentially high-impact storm events. In this study, shoreline change rates (SCRs) are quantified at five different sites ranging from marsh to sediment bank shorelines around the Albemarle-Pamlico estuarine system (APES) for a series of historical (decadal to 50-year) and short-term (bimonthly) time periods as well as for individual storm events. Long-term (historical) SCRs of approximately ?0.5 ± 0.07 m year^?1 are observed, consistent with previous work along estuarine shorelines in North Carolina. Short-term SCRs are highly variable, both spatially and temporally, and ranged from 15.8 ± 7.5 to ?19.3 ± 11.5 m year^?1 at one of the study sites. The influence of wave climate on the spatial and temporal variability of short-term erosion rates is investigated using meteorological observations and coupled hydrodynamic (Delft3D) and wave (SWAN) models. The models are applied to simulate hourly variability in the surface waves and water levels. The results indicate that in the fetch-limited APES, wind direction strongly influences the wave climate at the study sites. The wave height also has an influence on short-term SCRs as determined from the wave simulations for individual meteorological events, but no statistical correlation is found for wave height and SCRs over the long term. Despite the significantly higher rates of shoreline erosion over short time periods and from individual events like hurricanes, the cumulative impact over long time periods is low. Therefore, while the short-term response of these shorelines to episodic forcing should be taken into account in management plans, the long-term trends commonly used in ocean shoreline management can also be used to determine erosion setbacks on estuarine shorelines.     

Karstological study of the new Kunming airport building area (Yunnan, China)

In Kunming area (6.8 mio population), two big interventions are in progress: construction of a new airport, the 23 km² area of which will extend across karst terrain northeast of the city, and extensive uptake of water from karst aquifers for drinking and agricultural use. In the study, an interdisciplinary approach was utilized to demonstrate the need for holistic karstology studies prior to performing extensive interferences in the karst environment. This study included survey of surface karst features and microscopic analyses of rock samples in the area of the new airport location, accompanied by hydrogeological studies and microbiological analyses of two karst drinking water sources in its vicinity (Qinglongdong, Huanglongdong). Results showed the specific characteristics of the subsoil stone forest that indicated a high level of karstification. The direction and characteristics of groundwater flow from the sinking Qiaotou Stream at the margin of the new airport area toward the Huanglongdong Spring were defined with a single tracer test. Additional information about hydrogeological characteristics of the karst aquifer was obtained by individual measurements of physical and chemical parameters of the springs and sinking stream. Selected chemical and bacteriological parameters showed substantial pollution of both springs due to various types of human activities in the catchments. The results of the study pointed to the necessity of taking immediate measures for the springs’ protection and showed the importance of interdisciplinary research when planning anthropogenic activities in the karst.     

新疆北疆地区季节性冻土结冻过程与日积温的关系

传统的度日因子模型很难分辨在结冻期土壤每日结冻和解冻的过程,而日小时积温可以区分正积温和负积温对土壤冻结过程的影响.利用北疆地区1951-2010年气象站数据和决策树算法,分析计算日小时积温及表层5cm和10cm土壤冻结状态数据及日小时积温对季节性冻土冻结现象的影响.结果表明:在北疆范围年小时正积温以每年平均160℃增长,而年小时负积温以每年平均153℃减少.季节性冻土发生冻结现象所需的临界值分布与北疆地区气候和土壤分布基本一致,但仍存在空间差异性.北疆地区5cm土壤结冻所需的日小时负积温为-50℃以下,而5cm到10cm土壤结冻所需日小时负积温的平均值差值为-15℃左右.与日最低气温和日平均气温作为土壤结冻判据相比,日小时积温临界值作为判据可获得较高的精确度.在昌吉地区和阿勒泰地区冻土的平均深度随着日小时负积温临界值的增加而减少.     

Soil liquefaction studies at Mumbai city

Mumbai city is the economical capital of India and is situated about midway on the western coast of stable continental region of Peninsular India. Major part of the city being of reclaimed land, the soil type is of alluvium, sand, and recent conglomerate. There are some bigger water bodies within the city range. In this study, an attempt has been made to study the susceptibility of soil liquefaction using simplified empirical procedure based on number of blow counts (N values) of the soil layers from standard penetration test. The liquefaction susceptibility is quantified in terms of factor of safety along the borehole depths at available borehole locations using earthquake-induced cyclic stress on the soil and the cyclic resistance of the soil to withstand the load. The factor of safety against liquefaction is evaluated at different sites for two peak ground acceleration (PGA) levels pertaining to 10 and 2?% probability of exceedance in 50?years corresponding to uniform hazard response spectra for Mumbai city with 475- and 2,475-year return period, respectively. Contour maps are prepared that display the factor of safety at different depths for earthquake magnitude of M _w 6.5. These contour maps show the liquefaction vulnerability at different sites in the city.     

Geospatial contour mapping of shear wave velocity for Mumbai city

Shear wave velocity is one of the most important input parameter in the analysis of geotechnical earthquake engineering problems, particularly to estimate site-specific amplification factor and ground response study. Dynamic in situ tests such as spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) or multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) are very expensive. Also due to lack of specialized personnel, these tests are generally avoided in many soil investigation programs. Worldwide, several researchers have developed correlations between the SPT ‘N’ value and shear wave velocity ‘V _s’, which are useful for determining the dynamic soil properties. In the present study, more than 400 numbers of soil borehole data were collected from various geotechnical investigation agencies, government engineering institutes and geotechnical laboratories from different parts of Mumbai city, which is financial capital of India with highest population density. In this paper, an attempt has been made to develop the correlation between the SPT ‘N’ value and shear wave velocity ‘V _s’ for various soil profile of Mumbai city and compared with other existing correlations for different cities in India. Using Geographical Information System (GIS), a geospatial contour map of shear wave velocity profile for Mumbai city is prepared with contour intervals of 25 and 50 m/s. The scarcity of database or maps of shear wave velocity profile for Mumbai city will make the present geospatial contour maps extremely useful and beneficial to the designer, practitioners for seismic hazard study involved in geotechnical earthquake engineering.     

Shanghai urban influences on humidity and precipitation distribution

By comparing simultaneously observed data of humidity and precipitation in Shanghai Urban area with those in its suburbs, we first deal with the urban influences on humidity. We find that both the average absolute humidity and relative humidity (diurnal, monthly and annual) are lower in the city than those in the surrounding 10 counties but night-time absolute humidity excess in the city exhibits a moisture island similar to that of temperature. The example is shown from a summer night at 5 h on Aug. 10, 1959.When 20-year's records of isohyets of annual average precipitation, average precipitation of rainy seasons (May–September), and that of other seasons (October–April) are analyzed, the urban influences on the distribution of annual precipitation and the rainy season precipitation become obvious, but it seems that the other seasons are not affected.Some rain events that illustrate the main contributing causes are also discussed, namely, heat island, obstacle effects and pollution products, for the modification and augmentation of precipitation in urban area and in the lee of the city.     

Heat risk assessment based on mobile phone data: case study of Bratislava,Slovakia

The aim of this interdisciplinary study is to assess the heat risk for Bratislava. The following layers were created to compute the risk index: the hazard layer of air temperature, a mitigation layer of tree vegetation, an exposure layer of population and a vulnerability layer of individuals over 65 years of age. The MUKLIMO_3 model was used to evaluate the field of mean surface air temperature at 9 PM during selected days of the summer heat wave in August 2018. The tree vegetation layer, in the form of percentage per grid cell, was derived from Sentinel-2 satellite data. Population density data are based on mobile positioning data, and elderly population data are based on a gridded database from the statistical census. Input layers were unified into a resolution of 500 × 500 m, and the heat risk index was calculated by summation of the weighted input layers. The results reflect the variability of the population and the elderly population within the city, as well as the variability of the temperature field, which is caused by the joint effect of an urban heat island and topography. The highest values of risk index occur within the broader city centre, with specific hot spots at several places.

     

An integrated flood inundation model for coastal urban watershed of Navi Mumbai,India

Most urban agglomerations located in the Mumbai coastal region in India are vulnerable to flooding due to increasing frequency of the short-duration heavy rainfall, by virtue of their location at foothills on one side and tidal variations on the other side. Steep slopes in the catchment ensure fast runoff and tidal variation adds to backwater effect in the drainage system, which together are favorable for flooding. The present study simulates the flood inundation due to heavy rainfall and high-tide conditions in a coastal urban catchment within Mumbai region with detention pond. Overland flow is modeled using a mass balance approach, which can adapt to hilly slopes and smoothly accommodate detention pond hydraulics. Dynamic wave channel routing based on finite element method captures the backwater effects due to tidal variation, and raster-based flood inundation model enables direct use of digital elevation model. The integrated model is capable of simulating detention pond hydraulics within the raster flood model for heavy rainfall events. The database required for the model is obtained from the geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Application of the integrated model to literature problems and the catchment of the study area for two non-flooding events gave satisfactory results. Further, the model is applied to an extreme rainfall event of July 26, 2005, coinciding with high-tide conditions, which revealed vulnerability of the area to flooding despite of an existing detention pond. A sensitivity analysis on the location of detention pond indicated that catchment response can be better governed by relocating the detention pond to upstream of existing detention pond especially when heavy rainfall events are becoming frequent.     

Intense night-time equatorial radio scintillations by sporadicE layers

Almost saturated scintillations of radio beacons from geostationary satellites received at an equatorial station during night-time have been shown to occur even during complete absence of spreadF on the vertical incidence ionograms at the same location. These scintillation events were observed when the ionograms showed blanketing type of sporadicE layers simultaneously at different heights. It is suggested that strong equatorial radio wave scintillations during night-time are caused by multiple scattering between different levels of large plasma density gradients in theF or sometimes in theE regions of the ionosphere.     

Impact assessment of land cover changes on the runoff changes on the extreme flood events in the Kelantan River basin

In the current years, changing the land cover/land use had serious hydrological impacts affecting the flood events in the Kelantan River basin. The flood events at the east coast of the peninsular Malaysia got highly affected in the recent decades due to several factors like urbanisation, rapid changes in the utilisation of land and lack of meteorological (i.e. change in climate) and developmental monitoring and planning. The Kelantan River basin has been highly influenced due to a rapid change in land use during 1984 to 2013, which occurred in the form of transformation of agricultural area and deforestation (logging activities). In order to evaluate the influence of the modifications in land cover on the flood events, two hydrological regional models of rainfall-induced runoff event, the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC)-Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS) model and improved transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional model (Improved TRIGRS), were employed in this study. The responses of land cover changes on the peak flow and runoff volume were investigated using 10 days of hourly rainfall events from 20 December to the end of December 2014 at the study area. The usage of two hydrological models defined that the changes in land use/land cover caused momentous changes in hydrological response towards water flow. The outcomes also revealed that the increase of severe water flow at the study area is a function of urbanisation and deforestation, particularly in the conversion of the forest area to the less canopy coverage, for example, oil palm, mixed agriculture and rubber. The monsoon season floods and runoff escalate in the cleared land or low-density vegetation area, while the normal flow gets the contribution from interflow generated from secondary jungle and forested areas.     

Equivalent-Linear Seismic Ground Response Analysis of Some Typical Sites in Mumbai

Any earthquake event is associated with a rupture mechanism at the source, propagation of seismic waves through underlying rock and finally these waves travel through the soil layers to the particular site of interest. The bedrock motion is significantly modified at the ground surface due to the presence of local soil layers above the bedrock beneath the site of interest. The estimation of the amplifications in ground response due to the local soil sites is a complex problem to the designers and the problem is more important for mega cities like Mumbai in India, where huge population may get affected due to devastations of earthquake. In the present study, the effect of local soil sites in modifying ground response is studied by performing one dimensional equivalent-linear ground response analysis for some of the typical Mumbai soil sites. Field borelog data of some typical sites in Mumbai city viz. Mangalwadi site, Walkeswar site, BJ Marg near Pandhari Chawl site are considered in this study. The ground responses are observed for range of input motions and the results are presented in terms of surface acceleration time history, ratio of shear stress to vertical effective stress versus time, acceleration response spectrum, Fourier amplitude ratio versus frequency etc. The typical amplifications of ground accelerations considering four strong ground motions with wide variation of low to high MHA, frequency contents and durations are obtained. Results show that MHA, bracketed duration, frequency content have significant effects on the amplification of seismic accelerations for typical 2001 Bhuj motion. The peak ground acceleration amplification factors are found to be about 2.50 for Mangalwadi site, 2.60 for Walkeswar site and 3.45 for BJ Marg site using 2001 Bhuj input motion. The response spectrum along various soil layers are obtained which will be useful for designers for earthquake resistant design of geotechnical structures in Mumbai for similar sites in the absence of site specific data.     

Urban effects of Chennai on sea breeze induced convection and precipitation

Doppler radar derived wind speed and direction profiles showed a well developed sea breeze circulation over the Chennai, India region on 28 June, 2003. Rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm resulted from convection along the sea breeze front. Inland propagation of the sea breeze front was observed in radar reflectivity imagery. High-resolution MM5 simulations were used to investigate the influence of Chennai urban land use on sea breeze initiated convection and precipitation. A comparison of observed and simulated 10m wind speed and direction over Chennai showed that the model was able to simulate the timing and strength of the sea breeze. Urban effects are shown to increase the near surface air temperature over Chennai by 3.0K during the early morning hours. The larger surface temperature gradient along the coast due to urban effects increased onshore flow by 4.0m s⁻¹. Model sensitivity study revealed that precipitation totals were enhanced by 25mm over a large region 150 km west of Chennai due to urban effects. Deficiency in model physics related to night-time forecasts are addressed.     

Trapped waves of the 27 November 1945 Makran tsunami: observations and numerical modeling

The 27 November 1945 earthquake in the Makran Subduction Zone triggered a destructive tsunami that has left important problems unresolved. According to the available reports, high waves persisted along the Makran coast and at Karachi for several hours after the arrival of the first wave. Long-duration sea-level oscillations were also reported from Port Victoria, Seychelles. On the other hand, only one high wave was reported from Mumbai. Tide-gauge records of the tsunami from Karachi and Mumbai confirm these reports. While the data from Mumbai shows a single high wave, Karachi data shows that high waves persisted for more than 7 h, with maximum wave height occurring 2.8 h after the arrival of the first wave. In this paper, we analyze the cause of these persistent high waves using a numerical model. The simulation reproduces the observed features reasonably well, particularly the persistent high waves at Karachi and the single high wave at Mumbai. It further reveals that the persistent high waves along the Makran coast and at Karachi were the result of trapping of the tsunami-wave energy on the continental shelf off the Makran coast and that these coastally-trapped edge waves were trapped in the along-shore direction within a ∼300-km stretch of the continental shelf. Sensitivity experiments establish that this along-shore trapping of the tsunami energy is due to variations in the shelf width. In addition, the model simulation indicates that the reported long duration of sea-level oscillations at Port Victoria were mainly due to trapping of the tsunami energy over the large shallow region surrounding the Seychelles archipelago.     

Hourly Variation of Surface Urban Heat Island over the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Great progress has been made on the remote investigation of Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) across multiple time scales. However, limited by the remote sensing models and resolution tradeoff of satellite-derived Land Surface Temperatures (LSTs), currently the hourly regimes of SUHI over typical urban agglomerations in typical seasons remain unclear. Using MODIS imageries as the main data source as well as by incorporating a diurnal temperature cycle model (i.e., INA08), this study, to our knowledge, firstly examined the hourly variations of the spatial pattern and intensity of the SUHIs for the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in both the summer and winter. The results demonstrated that, in the summer, a general trend of ‘heat island’ was observed for every city during a diurnal cycle. ‘Cold spots’ also occur within most of the cities from around 08:00 to 21:00, mostly as a result of the cooling effect of urban vegetation or water body under strong solar insolation. However, these ‘cold spots’ disappear after 21:00. For this season, the hourly variations of the SUHI intensity are similar to those of the LSTs: They both rise rapidly in the morning, reach the maxima at around 12:00 to 14:00, then gradually decrease and continue until the sunrise of the next day. In the winter, surface urban cool islands (SUCIs) were observed for most of the cities, but these SUCIs mostly disappear during the afternoon to the early evening (around 14:00~17: 00), and then all the cities bounce back to exhibit heat islands. Within this season, the hourly variations of the SUHI intensity differ from those of the LST. There also exist large differences of the hourly variations of SUHI intensity between using the rural area and forest as the non-urban background for estimation of the intensity, with the former reaching its maximum (around 18:00) significantly later than the latter reaching its maximum (around 13:30).