A Review of Climate Change Attribution Studies

This paper reviews recent progress in climate change attribution studies. The focus is on the attribution of observed long-term changes in surface temperature, precipitation, circulation, and extremes, as well as that of specific extreme weather and climate events. Based on new methods and better models and observations, the latest studies further verify the conclusions on climate change attribution in the IPCC AR5, and enrich the evidence for anthropogenic influences on weather and climate variables and extremes. The uncertainty of global temperature change attributable to anthropogenic forcings lies in the considerable uncertainty of estimated total radiative forcing due to aerosols, while the uncertainty of precipitation change attribution arises from the limitations of observation and model simulations along with influences from large internal variability. In terms of extreme weather and climate events, it is clear that attribution studies have provided important new insights into the changes in the intensity or frequency of some of these events caused by anthropogenic climate change. The framing of the research question, the methods selected, and the model and statistical methods used all have influences on the results and conclusions drawn in an event attribution study. Overall, attribution studies in China remain inadequate because of limited research focus and the complexity of the monsoon climate in East Asia. Attribution research in China has focused mainly on changes or events related to temperature, such as the attribution of changes in mean and extreme temperature and individual heat wave events. Some progress has also been made regarding the pattern of changes in precipitation and individual extreme rainfall events in China. Nonetheless, gaps remain with respect to the attribution of changes in extreme precipitation, circulation, and drought, as well as to the event attribution such as those related to drought and tropical cyclones. It can be expected that, with the continual development of climate models, ongoing improvements to data, and the introduction of new methods in the future, climate change attribution research will develop accordingly. Additionally, further improvement in climate change attribution will facilitate the development of operational attribution systems for extreme events, as well as attribution studies of climate change impacts.     

Precipitation: A Parameter Changing Climate and Modified by Climate Change

This paper discusses two aspects of climate modeling, the deep water formation in the North Atlantic and precipitation changes due to climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. The deep water formation is strongly influenced by the precipitation, and the precipitation is affected by the concentration of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and by the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. The experiments discussed here have been performed independently to test the stability of the thermohaline circulation of the North Atlantic and to investigate changes in precipitation due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The precipitation changes in a climate change environment are sufficient in some simulations to decrease the thermohaline circulation noticeably. However, it appears that the amount of freshwater needed to bring the circulation to a collapse is magnitudes larger than the anticipated change in precipitation due to anthropogenic activities within the next 100 years. The precipitation changes, on the other hand, might change regionally quite drastically towards more extreme situations, thereby putting additional stress on vegetation and enhancing soil erosion.     

A Climate Change Scenario for the Tropics

This paper describes the construction of a climate change scenario for a region representing the extended Tropics – 30° N to 30° S – using a methodology that combines results from a simple climate model and a Global Climate Model (GCM) transient climate change experiment. The estimated date by which this climate change scenario might be realized ranges from as early as the end of the 2030s to as late as well into the 22nd century. The central estimate is for this scenario to describe the climate of the 2060s, which would represent a global warming rate of about 0.2 °C per decade, with associated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations estimated to be about 560 ppmv, 55% higher than 1990 levels. The role of anthropogenic aerosols in offsetting part of this future global warming and altering the regional character of the changes has not been considered. The paper presents changes in mean temperature; mean rainfall; rainfall seasonality, variability, frequency, and intensity and soil moisture. These patterns of change derive from only one GCM climate change experiment; different experiments would yield different patterns for the same global warming. There is also some discussion about possible changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity, although since TCs remain poorly modelled in GCMs, the full range of possibilities (from reduced activity, through no change, to increased activity) should be considered in any impact assessment.     

气候变化承诺

全球气候变暖是当代最受关注的问题之一。当然,人们首先想知道变暖究竟能达到什么程度。既然变暖的主要原因是人类活动造成温室气体增加,使温室效应加剧,则未来变暖的程度显然取决于过去排放了多少温室气体,以及今后以什么速度、排     

Climate Change Prediction

The concept of climate change prediction in response to anthropogenic forcings at multi-decadal time scales is reviewed. This is identified as a predictability problem with characteristics of both first kind and second kind (due to the slow components of the climate system). It is argued that, because of the non-linear and stochastic aspects of the climate system and of the anthropogenic and natural forcings, climate change contains an intrinsic level of uncertainty. As a result, climate change prediction needs to be approached in a probabilistic way. This requires a characterization and quantification of the uncertainties associated with the sequence of steps involved in a climate change prediction. A review is presented of different approaches recently proposed to produce probabilistic climate change predictions. The additional difficulties found when extending the prediction from the global to the regional scale and the implications that these have on the choice of prediction strategy are finally discussed.     

气候变化的风险、挑战与决策

随着2009年年底国际社会将在丹麦哥本哈根达成最终气候协议日期的临近,气候变化已经成为各种场合、各种组织争相露脸、展示贡献的必议话题.2009年3月,由国际上10所研究型大学组成的国际大学研究联盟主办的"气候变化:全球风险、挑战与决策"国际科学大会在丹麦召开,大会邀请了来自近80个国家的2500多名代表参加,包括政要和知名科学家.代表们广泛交流了从自然科学到社会科学研究领域的气候变化问题,明确了科学界给决策者采取应对全球气候变化措施提供的支持.会议综合报告已于近日编写完成,将于2010年由剑桥大学出版社出版.     

气候变化2007:气候变化影响、适应和脆弱性——IPCC第2工作组第4次评估报告主要结论介绍

阐述了政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第2工作组第四次评估中与决策相关的重要发现。本次评估体现了当前关于气候变化对自然、管理和人类系统的影响、这些系统的适应能力及脆弱性方面的科学认识。该评估基于此前IPCC的评估,并吸收了第3次评估以来的新认识。评估报告认为:从所有大陆和多数海洋得到的观测证据表明,许多自然系统正在受到区域气候变化,特别是温度升高的影响;人为增暖可能已对许多自然和生物系统产生可辨别的影响;气候变化对自然和人类环境所造成的其他影响清晰可辨。当前关于未来气候变化影响的认识,可以更详细地评估未来气候对各类系统和部门,以及对世界各大区域的影响,也可以对全球升温的影响进行估算,预估极端天气气候所带来的影响。必须采取更广泛的适应措施以应对气候变化所造成的影响,可持续发展能够降低对气候变化的脆弱性,兼顾适应和减缓的措施,能够减低气候变化相关风险。     

Climate Change: A Case Study Over India

Summary A brief account of various causes of climate change in recent decades and climate change trends in the Indian region is presented. It is of great importance to determine the influence of human activities on the likely climate change during recent decades. Local temperature is one of the major climatic elements to record the changes in the atmospheric environment caused by industrialization and urbanization. It is mentioned in the literature that there is either a cooling tendency or cessation of warming after the late 1950s at most of the Indian industrial cities. A case study of Nagpur, a centrally located city in India, is done to understand and the possible cause of cooling. Nagpur is the only city in India for which a long-term record of temperature, for urban (Mayo Hospital) and relatively suburban (Sonegaon Airport) area, is available. The study of the diurnal asymmetry in maximum and minimum temperatures indicates that the role of suspended particulate matter dominates over that of increasing greenhouse gases. Received April 15, 1998     

Climate Change and Cryptosporidiosis: A Qualitative Analysis

The effects of climate change on drinking-waterborne cryptosporidiosis transmission in the United States are analyzed using an influence diagram representation of epidemic development. Results from a systematic qualitative analysis indicate that climate change will have little effect on cryptosporidiosis incidence if the United States continues to be wealthy and maintains its commitment to public health. The major impact will, instead, be the additional costs of adapting to new climate regimes in order to avoid drinking-waterborne disease risk. These costs, for the most part, will be from improved monitoring and treatment of drinking water. The consequences of disaster scenarios are also considered. These, too, suggest that climate change per se will be a poor predictor of waterborne cryptosporidiosis in countries with high standards of living. Rather, the risk of epidemics will depend on the interplay between population, public health investment, infrastructure maintenance, emergency planning/response capabilities, water-treatment technologies, drinking-water regulations, and climate.     

国际应对气候变化的新动向

2005年11月1～2日,八国集团（G8）成员国和中国、印度、巴西、墨西哥、南非等12个发展中国家的环境和能源部长齐聚伦敦,就应对气候变化的议题展开新一轮对话。作者针对这次会议的背景、概况及所反映出的国际应对气候变化的新动向,试作分析并提出相应的对策建议。     

空气污染与气候变化

近50年来,全球气候变化主要由大气温室气体浓度的日益增加引起,而空气污染主要由悬浮于空气中的大气气溶胶粒子造成,它们都主要由矿物燃料的燃烧排放形成.近年的研究表明,大气气溶胶粒子也具有气候效应:一是通过散射和吸收太阳光,减少到达地面的太阳辐射而具有降冷作用,可抵消一部分由温室气体造成的变暖作用;二是可以作为云中凝结核改变云微物理过程和降水性质,改变大气的水循环.大气气溶胶对于经济社会的许多方面,如农业、水资源、人体健康、城市化等也表现出重要的影响.由于空气污染和气候变化在很大程度上有共同的原因,即主要都是由矿物燃料燃烧的排放造成,因而减轻和控制空气污染与减少温室气体排放保护气候在行动上应是一致的.为了从经济上得到最大的节约和获得双赢的效果,应该采取协同应对空气污染和气候变化的减排战略,即应该采取统一的而不是分离的科学研究和应对战略.     

美国气候变化科学计划综述

简要回顾美国气候变化研究沿革,分析美国制定和实施气候变化科学计划(USCCSP)的背景,综述USCCSP的研究目标、研究领域和组织管理方式。首先重点阐述USCCSP的关键科学发现以及全球和美国气候变化的主要科学结论,介绍USCCSP综合评估产品。然后论述美国国家科学院研究理事会(NRC)对USCCSP进展的评估,评述未来美国气候变化研究的战略框架和领域。最后在归纳美国气候变化研究特色的基础上,阐述对我国制定长期战略规划、深化基础研究、强化模式创新、推进观测系统和资料系统建设、加强科学评估和应用服务、加快立法进程等方面的启示。     

Climate Variability, Climate Change and Water Resource Management in the Great Lakes

Water managers always have had to cope with climate variability. All water management practices are, to some extent, a response to natural hydrologic variability. Climate change poses a different kind of problem. Adaptation to climate change in water resource management will involve using the kinds of practices and activities currently being used. However, it remains unclear whether or not practices and activities designed with historical climate variability will be able to cope with future variability caused by atmospheric warming. This paper examines the question of adaptation to climate change in the context of Canadian water resources management, emphasizing issues in the context of the Great Lakes, an important binational water resource.     

气候与气候系统研究进展

2011年,气候系统研究所在气候系统模式研发、陆面过程对我国气候的影响以及我国云南持续性干旱的成因等方面开展了深入研究,取得可喜的进展。     

气候系统与气候变化研究进展

2010年度气候系统研究所在准双周振荡结构与起源、东部地区降水年代际演变特征、13变化机理、降水评估和古气候研究等方面取得明显进展,主要研究成果如下。