灰色系统预测模型的修正研究——以芜湖市耕地为例

针对GM(1,1)模型预测的不足,对其进行修正得到修正模型,并利用芜湖市耕地变化进行实例验证和应用。结果表明:1)应用灰色预测的修正模型对耕地变化进行预测比直接应用灰色预测模型更精确;2)分段建模和建立灰色—马尔柯夫模型是从两个不同的角度对GM(1,1)模型进行修正,但两者可以相互结合,使预测结果更准确。3)建立灰色—马尔柯夫模型可以避免其他多种影响因素,更具科学性和实用性。     

基于R/S分析的黑河出山年径流量灰色预测

径流过程具有分形和灰色特征。基于此,将R/S分析与灰色系统理论相结合,提出了R/S灰色预测模型以预报黑河出山径流量。针对1949—2011年莺落峡水文站年径流量资料,首先进行R/S分析,确定径流量序列的Hurst指数和平均循环周期T;然后在一个周期内进行径流量灰色预测。结果表明:黑河出山径流量循环周期在20~25年之间,在进行R/S灰色预测时,取T=20为宜;R/S灰色预测结果的精度高于直接进行灰色预测。该方法拓宽了分形和灰色理论在径流过程研究的应用范围,为径流量的科学预测提供了一种新方法。     

GM（1，1）优化模型在滑坡预测预报中的应用

灰色模型在社会科学、自然科学的许多方面已得到广泛的应用，并取得了一系列重大成果。在斜坡(滑坡)地质灾害研究方面，灰色模型多用于斜坡(滑坡)变形的中长期预测预报，且精度较高；但对滑坡短临预测预报精度较差，甚至不能适用，有待改进。滑坡变形预测预报的实际算例表明，以优化灰色模型背景值为基础的优化GM(1，1)模型。具有对建模结果进行优化的能力，即能用于斜坡变形的中长期预测预报，又能适于滑坡短临预测预报。且都能获得较高的模拟和预测精度。应用传统线性GM(1，1)模型和非线性Verhulst模型进行对比分析，检验了优化GM(1，1)模型的正确性和较广泛的适用性。     

灰色系统在耕地预测中的应用——以芜湖市为例

提高耕地动态变化预测精度是土地规划工作中的一项重要内容。文章利用灰色系统理论的建模思想。根据芜湖市耕地统计资料历史变化特点，分时段建立灰色系统模型来对比分析和筛选。并结合残差辩识来提高预测模型的精度。同时，与一元线性回归模型相比较，验证GM（1，1）模型在耕地变化预测中的精确性与可靠性，并提出运用对比分析与综合分析选择模型的思想来优化GM（1，1）模型，为科学精确地进行耕地预测提供了理论基础。     

黄土地区土壤重力侵蚀灰色系统模型研究

介绍了黄土丘陵沟壑区土壤区土壤重力侵蚀灰色系统预测模型的构造原理和方法，并用灰色关联度的方法来反映模型的预测值与山西离石王家沟流域重力观测数据之间的关联性，用以分析模型的预测精度。同时反映了土壤重力侵蚀系统的动态变化规律，引入了残差辨识的理论和方法，以提高模型的预报水平。     

基于灰色自记忆模型的城市月需水量预测

建立了以灰色微分方程为动力核的自记忆模型,并首次应用于城市月需水量预测.先将具有季节性特征的实测历史数据通过季节指数法获得相对平滑的序列,再用所建灰色自记忆模型进行模拟、预测.研究表明,灰色自记忆模型建模方法简单且模拟和预测精度较为满意,平均相对误差为5.74％,灰色GM(1,1)模型预测平均相对误差是8.77％,其精...     

Trend and Characteristics of Variation on the Runoff of the Upper Yellow River above Tangnag

根据唐乃亥等有关台站的水文气象观测资料 ,对黄河上游唐乃亥以上流域的径流特征及演变规律进行了分析探讨 ,并在此基础上利用灰色拓扑、混合门限自回归及周期外延——逐步回归等数学模型对其未来的变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明 ,黄河上游唐乃亥以上流域径流目前正处于一个枯水段的底部 ,并且从现在起的今后若干年里将呈现一个波动状上升的变化趋势     

Trend and Characteristics of Variation on the Runoff of the …

根据唐乃亥等有关台站的水文气象观测资料,对黄河上 唐乃亥以上流域的径注琢演变规律进行了分析探讨,并在此基础上用灰色拓扑、混合门限自回归及周期外延－逐步回归等数学模型对其未来的变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明,黄河上游唐乃亥以上流域径流目前正处于一个枯水段的底部,并且从现在超的今后若干年里将呈现一个波动状上升的变化趋势。     

福建省4个境外旅游客源市场的灰色预测

本文运用灰色系统理论,建立福建省4个境外旅游客源市场的灰色动态预测模型--GM(1,1)模型,模型输出结果与历史情况相当吻合,进而利用该模型对2000～2005年的境外旅游客源市场进行预测分析.     

用多变量灰色预测模型模拟预测参考作物蒸散量的研究

当观测资料的数据量少而又存在多个相互影响或关联的变量时,常用的灰色预测模型GM（1,1）不能全面考虑多个变量。为此,采用自适应MGM（1,n）模型—多变量灰色预测模型,较好地解决了这一问题。针对一些地区气象数据较少甚至缺失的情况,以内蒙古正蓝旗的气象资料用Penman-Monteith计算的参考作物蒸散量（ET0）为研究对象,运用灰色系统理论建立MGM（1,3）模型,模拟预测参考作物蒸散量变化规律,并与GM（1,1）模型和BP神经网络模型比较,结果表明MGM（1,3）模型有较好的预测效果。     

Rates of active deformation in the Aegean Sea and surrounding regions

Abstract Average strain rates are calculated from earthquakes in the period 1908-81 that occurred in the Aegean Sea extensional region, and in the convergent zone associated with the Hellenic Trench. In spite of large uncertainties resulting from the use of an M_S : M_o relationship, seismic N-S extensional rates in the Aegean are in the region 20–60 mm yr^-1 whereas seismic shortening rates in the Hellenic Trench are less than about 15 mm yr^-1. This is surprising because Africa and Eurasia are known to be converging, not separating. This apparent anomaly is caused by most of the convergence in the Hellenic Trench occurring aseismically. By contrast, the seismic extensional rates in the Aegean agree quite well with those expected from other arguments. The present day extensional rates are sufficiently high for McKenzie's instantaneous stretching model to be applicable. There is some evidence that these high extensional rates have operated throughout the last 5 Myr.     

Listric extensional fault systems - results of analogue model experiments

Abstract Analogue models are a powerful tool for investigating progressive deformation in extensional fault systems. This paper presents exciting new insights into the progressive evolution of hanging wall structures in listric extensional terranes. Analogue models, scaled to simulate deformation in a sedimentary sequence, were constructed for simple listric and ramp/flat listric extensional detachments. For each detachment geometry homogeneous sand, sand/mica and sand/clay models were used to simulate respectively, deformation of isotropic sediments, of anisotropic sediments and of sedimentary sequences with competency contrasts. Roll-over anticlines with geometrically necessary crestal collapse graben structures are characteristic of the steepening-upwards segments of listric extensional fault systems in all of our models. With progressive deformation, crestal collapse grabens show hanging wall nucleation of new faults. Variations in graben size, amount of fault rotation and throw, are dependent on detachment curvature and amount of extension. Individual faults and associated fault blocks may significantly change shape during extension. Complex and apparently conjugate fault arrays are the result of superposition of successive crestal collapse grabens. Ramp/flat listric extensional fault systems are characterized by a roll-over anticline and a crestal collapse graben system associated with each steepening-upwards segment of the detachment and a ramp zone consisting of a hanging wall syncline and a complex deformation zone with local reverse faults. The roll-over anticlines and crestal collapse graben are similar in geometry to those formed in simple listric extensional systems. The models demonstrate that the geometry of the detachments exerts a fundamental control on the evolution of hanging wall structures. Analysis of particle displacement paths for these experiments provides new insights into the mechanical development of roll-over anticlines. Two general models for deformation above simple listric and ramp/flat listric extensional detachments have been erected.     

Deep seismic reflection evidence for the role of extension in the evolution of continental crust

Summary. Deep seismic reflection profiling, as well as geologic studies, indicate that extensional basins are a common feature of continental crust. The wide-spread occurrence of extensional basins, combined with published models on the effects of extension on lower crustal rocks, suggests that extensional processes play an important role in the evolution of continental crust. Extension is now recognized to have been the last major tectonic event to affect approximately 50% of the United States. This observation and (he preservation of extensional features in areas which have experienced subsequent episodes of compression, suggests that extensional processes may lead to a strengthening of continental crust. In areas of active extension such as the western United States, seismic and petrologic data, as well as theoretical modeling of heat flow data, suggests that the lower crust may be predominantly intrusive igneous material emplaced during extension and that the present Mohorovicic discontinuity formed during extension. Although the interpretation of the various data is somewhat speculative, we suggest that the volume of continental material in some areas has doubled as a result of extension. Thus, extension may result in the addition of a significant amount of new material to the continents.     

Structural development of Neogene basins in western Greece

Abstract An account is given of the structural setting of the various Neogene sedimentary basins of western Greece. Compressional basins are attributable to foreland loading by the Alpine fold and thrust belt of the Outer Hellenides, and to active subduction in the adjacent western Hellenic arc. Late extensional basins are related to N-S crustal extension in the Aegean marginal basin and, in western Greece, are superimposed on the earlier compressional structures. The local seismicity provides evidence that the main E-W-trending basin-bounding faults of the extensional basins form a linked system that includes NW-SE- and NE-SW-trending transfer zones of transtension. The transfer zones are themselves the sites of small extensional basins.     

Rift-phase extensional fabrics of the back-arc Drummond Basin, eastern Australia

The base of the Late Devonian–Early Carboniferous Drummond Basin, a major backarc extensional feature in eastern Australia which formed in response to detachment faulting, is extensively exposed in central Queensland. Here a crystalline basin floor is overlain by the Silver Hills Volcanics, a synrift sequence of predominantly silicic ash flow tuffs and lavas ranging to over 2 km in thickness. Detailed mapping of faults and stratigraphic logging of thickness changes within the Silver Hills Volcanics have allowed the rift-phase structural architecture that accompanied initial subsidence near the basin margin to be resolved. A complex mosaic of block faults with throws of up to 1 km is indicated. Locally developed mosaics may conform to, or depart from, the configuration predicted by the detachment faulting model. Structural fabric of the basement was a critical determinant of the extensional geometry. Distributed shear along pre-existing penetrative planar fabrics is considered to have accommodated hangingwall extension at lower strain rates whereas the propagation of tension fractures and the development of block faults by failure on pre-existing, brittle, basement dislocations facilitated extension at higher strain rates. The detachment fault inferred to lie beneath the extended hangingwall carapace has not been mapped at the surface and is thought to dissipate into a broad zone of distributed shear within basement to the east of the basin. Volcanism coincided with the initiation of extensional movements at which time deep crustal repositories for evolved magma were tapped by extensional fractures. The main extensional faults cutting the basinal succession were not used as conduits for magmatic products which were sourced from the basin margin and from extended hinterland to the east.     

Syn‐depositional thin‐ and thick‐skinned extensional tectonics in the mid‐Cretaceous Lasarte sub‐basin,western Pyrenees

In the mid‐Cretaceous Lasarte sub‐basin (LSB) [northeastern Basque‐Cantabrian Basin (BCB)] contemporaneous and syn‐depositional thin‐ and thick‐skinned extensional tectonics occur due to the presence of a ductile detachment layer that decoupled the extension. Despite the interest in extension modes of rift basins bearing intra‐stratal detachment layers, complex cases remain poorly understood. In the LSB, field results based on mapping, stratigraphic, sedimentological and structural data show the relationship between growth strata and tectonic structures. Syn‐depositional extensional listric faults and associated folds and faults have been identified in the supra‐detachment thin‐skinned system. But stratigraphic data also indicate the activation of sub‐detachment thick‐skinned extensional faults coeval with the development of the thin‐skinned system. The tectono‐sedimentary evolution of the LSB, since the Late Aptian until the earliest Late Albian, has been interpreted based on thin‐ and thick‐skinned extensional growth structures, which are fossilized by post‐extensional strata. The development of the thin‐skinned system is attributed to the presence of a ductile detachment layer (Upper Triassic Keuper facies) which decoupled the extension from deeper sub‐detachment basement‐involved faulting under a regional extensional/transtensional regime.     

Gravitational deformation and inherited structural control on slope morphology in the subduction zone of north‐central Chile (ca. 29–33°S)

Subduction zones provide direct insight into plate boundary deformation and by studying these areas we better understand tectonic processes and variability over time. We studied the structure of the offshore subduction zone system of the Pampean flat‐slab segment (ca. 29–33°S) of the Chilean margin using seismic and bathymetric constraints. Here, we related and analysed the structural styles of the offshore and onshore western fore‐arc. Overlying the acoustic top of the continental basement, two syn‐extensional seismic sequences were recognised and correlated with onshore geological units and the Valparaíso Forearc Basin seismic sequences: (SII) Pliocene‐Pleistocene and (SI) Miocene‐Pliocene (Late Cretaceous (?) to Miocene‐Pliocene) syn‐extensional sequences. These sequences are separated by an unconformity (i.e. Valparaíso Unconformity). Seismic reflection data reveal that the eastward dipping extensional system (EI) recognised at the upper slope can be extended to the middle slope and controlled the accumulation of the older seismic package (SI). The westward dipping extensional system (EII) is essentially restricted to the middle slope. Here, EII cuts the eastward dipping extensional system (EI), preferentially parallel to the inclination of the older sequences (SI), and controlled a series of middle slope basins which are filled by the Pliocene‐Pleistocene seismic sequence (SII). At the upper slope and in the western Coastal Cordillera, the SII sequence is controlled by eastward dipping faults (EII) which are the local reactivation of older extensional faults (EI). The tectonic boundary between the middle (eastern outermost forearc block) and upper continental slope (western coastal block) is a prominent system of trenchward dipping normal fault scarps (ca. 1 km offset) that resemble a major trenchward dipping extensional fault system. This prominent structural feature can be readily detected along the Chilean erosive margin as well as the two extensional sets (EI and EII). Evidence of slumping, thrusting, reactivated faults and mass transport deposits, were recognised in the slope domain and locally restricted to some eastern dipping faults. These features could be related to gravitational effects or slope deformation due to coseismic deformation. The regional inclination of the pre‐Pliocene sequences favoured the gravitational collapse of the outermost forearc block. We propose that the structural configuration of the study area is dominantly controlled by tectonic erosion as well as the uplift of the Coastal Cordillera, which is partially controlled by pre‐Pliocene architecture.     

Subsurface evidence for late Mesozoic extension in western Mongolia: tectonic and petroleum systems implications

New seismic reflection profiles from the Tugrug basin in the Gobi‐Altai region of western Mongolia demonstrate the existence of preserved Mesozoic extensional basins by imaging listric normal faults, extensional growth strata, and partially inverted grabens. A core hole from this region recovered ca. 1600 continuous meters of Upper Jurassic – Lower Cretaceous (Kimmeridgian–Berriasian) strata overlying Late Triassic volcanic basement. The cored succession is dominated by lacustrine and marginal lacustrine deposits ranging from stratified lacustrine, to subaqueous fan and delta, to subaerial alluvial‐fluvial environments. Multiple unconformities are encountered, and these represent distinct phases in basin evolution including syn‐extensional deposition and basin inversion. Prospective petroleum source and reservoir intervals occur, and both fluid inclusions and oil staining in the core provide evidence of hydrocarbon migration. Ties to correlative outcrop sections underscore that, in general, this basin appears to share a similar tectono‐stratigraphic evolution with petroliferous rift basins in eastern Mongolia and China. Nevertheless, some interesting contrasts to these other basins are noted, including distinct sandstone provenance, less overburden, and younger (Neogene) inversion structures. The Tugrug basin occupies an important but perplexing paleogeographic position between late Mesozoic contractile and extensional provinces. Its formation may record a rapid temporal shift from orogenic crustal thickening to extensional collapse in the Late Jurassic, and/or an accommodation zone with a Mesozoic strike‐slip component.     

Along‐strike evolution of folding,stretching and breaching of supra‐salt strata in the Plataforma Burgalesa extensional forced fold system (northern Spain)

The Plataforma Burgalesa is a partly exposed extensional forced fold system with an intermediate salt layer, which has developed along the southern portion of the Basque‐Cantabrian Basin from Malm to Early Cretaceous as part of the Bay of Biscay‐Pyrenean rift system. Relationships between syn‐ and pre‐rift strata of the supra‐salt cover sequence and distribution of intra‐cover second‐order faults are observed both along seismic sections and at the surface. These relationships indicate an along‐strike variability of the extensional structural style. After a short period of salt mobilization and forced folding, high slip rates in the central portion of the major basement faults have rapidly promoted brittle behaviour of the salt layer, preventing further salt mobilization and facilitating the propagation of the fault across the salt layer. In contrast, at the tip regions of basement faults, slower slip rates have facilitated ductile salt behaviour, ensuring its further evaporite evacuation, preventing fault propagation across the salt layer and, in essence, allowing for a long‐living forced folding process. Our results indicate the important effect of along‐strike variation in displacement and displacement rates in controlling evaporite behaviour in extensional basins. Amount of displacement and displacement rates are key factors controlling the propagation of basement faults across evaporite layers. In addition, growth strata patterns are recognized as a powerful tool for constraining the up‐dip propagation history of basement faults in extensional fault‐related fold systems with intermediate décollement levels.     

Structure of the footwall of a listric fault system revealed by 3D seismic data from the Niger Delta

We use three‐dimensional (3D) seismic reflection data to analyse the architecture of the footwall of a listric fault, in a gravitationally driven extensional system, in the north‐western Niger Delta. In contrast to conventional listric normal fault models with a single master listric fault plane the level of detachment switches from a deeper to shallower level. The footwall evolves through the generation of new master detachment faults and detachments, which transfers hanging wall rocks into the footwall. New detachments form by branching off pre‐existing detachment levels, cutting‐up through stratigraphy to the next mechanical weakness, separating discrete sections of extended strata. As a consequence a deeper, older array of seaward‐dipping, tilted extensional fault blocks is now located in the footwall beneath the master listric detachment fault. The structural complexity located below the master detachment fault highlights extensional episodes on separate detachment faults that are not captured in conventional listric models. We speculate that changes in the level of the detachment are caused by mechanical weaknesses controlled by lithology, pore pressure and episodes of sediment loading related to deltaic progradation.