第5届气候系统与气候变化国际讲习班总结

1 概况 2008年7月14～25日,由中国气象局主办,国家外专局、国家自然科学基金委、全球变化分析、研究和培训系统（START）、兰州大学和甘肃省气象局协办,国家气候中心承办的“第5届气候系统与气候变化国际讲习班（The Fifth International Seminaron Climate Systemand Climate Change,ISCS）”在兰州大学举行。     

Brief Review of Some CLIVAR-Related Studies in China

The Climate Variability and Predictability （CLIVAR） program is one of the sub-programs of the World Climate Research Program （WCRP）. In this paper, CLIVAR related research in China （2003-2006） is briefly reviewed, including four major components, namely, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillations, interannual variability, decadal variations in East Asia, and global warming simulations.     

赴NOAA—CPC工作学习总结——降水量网格数据集的制作技术和方法

根据NOAA（美国海洋大气局）和CMA（中国气象局）双边合作协议,我以访问学者的身份对CPC（Climate Prediction Center,气候预测中心）进行了为期8个月的T作访问（2007年8月7日至2008年3月28日）。CPC是NOAA下属的美国环境预测中心（NCEP）的一个处级单位,以制作各种气候产品并在此基础上进行气候监测、诊断和预测的业务单位。     

赴越南举办“天气、台风及气候预测国际培训班”总结

1概况 根据“中国-越南气象科技合作联合工作组第8次会议纪要”（气外函（2007]57号）的精神,中国气象局培训中心于2007年12月17～23Et在越南河内越南国家气象水文与环境研究院举办了“天气、台风及气候预测国际培训班（Training Seminaron Weather,Typhoonand Climate Prediction）。”     

准备WCC-3：为改进长期气候预测寻求更多支持

自2005年起WMO和其他10多个联合国组织和其他项目共同为第三次世界气候大会（WCC-3）进行筹划。先前的两次世界气候大会（World Climate Conference,WCC）做了两件有决定意义的大事。1979年举行的第一次WCC确定,而后由WMO和联合国环境署于1988年联合创建并赢得2007年诺贝尔奖的IPCC。     

赴埃及参加“气溶胶与气候相互作用”培训研讨班总结

2008年2月11～15日,由国际理论物理研究中心（ICTP：The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics）主办的“气溶胶与气候相互作用（Workshop on Aerosol—Climate Interactions：Mechanisms,Monitoring,and Impacts in Tropical Regions）”培训研讨班,在埃及东部海滨小城Hurghada举行。与会人员包括来自不同国家的40多名专家、     

Spatial patterns of Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation and its numerical simulation

In order to investigate the spatial patterns of the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation （TBO） on the global scale, the Climate Prediction Center （CPC） Merged Analysis of Precipitation （CMAP） monthly averaged precipitation and the Climate Diagnostics Center （CDC） monthly outgoing long-wave radiation （OLR） and SST are used in conjunction with TBO bandpass-filtering. The results indicate active biennial variability in the tropical eastern-central Pacific regions. It is evident that observations reflect the biennial component of the ENSO rather than the TBO itself. Since some studies have pointed out that the TBO is a broad-scale phenomenon differing from the ENSO, to investigate the pure TBO the ENSO signal must be excluded. The Scale Interaction Experiment-FRCGC （SINTEX-F） coupled general circulation model （CGCM） developed at Japan Frontier Research Center for Global Change （FRCGC） can capture both the ENSO and the biennial signals. Air-sea interactions in the tropical eastern-central Pacific are decoupled to eliminate the effects of ENSO in a experiment by SINTEX-F and the results show that biennial variability still exists even without ENSO. It seems to mean that the TBO and ENSO are independent from each other. Furthermore, the model results indicate that the two key regions are southwest Sumatra and the tropical western Pacific for the TBO cycle.     

On Orderly Adaptation to Global Warming

Global warming during the last century has been a well-known fact. Despite arguments and uncertainties in explanations, most scientists agree that this century-scale warming trend is attributable to human activities. According to the recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC, 2007） based on worldwide scientific results,     

近16年暖季青藏高原东部两类中尺度对流系统（MCS）的统计特征

利用日本高知大学提供的逐小时分辨率静止卫星云顶黑体亮温（TBB）资料,使用模式匹配算法对2000～2016年（2005年除外）暖季（5～9月）青藏高原东部的两类中尺度对流系统（MCS）进行了识别和追踪,并利用人工验证订正了结果。基于此,利用NOAA的CMORPH（Climate Prediction Center Morphing）降水资料和NCEP的CFSR（Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）再分析资料对高原东部两类MCS进行了统计和对比研究。研究发现,7月和8月是高原东部MCS生成最活跃的季节,然而,此两个月能够东移出高原MCS的比例最小;5月虽然MCS生成数最少,但是移出率高达近40%。对比表明,能够东移出高原的MCS（V-MCS）比不能移出的MCS（N-MCS）生命史更长,触发更早,短生命史个例占比更低。暖季各个月份,相比于N-MCS,V-MCS的对流更旺盛且发展更快,然而,由于其发生频数远低于N-MCS,总体而言,V-MCS对高原东部的降水贡献率仅为15%左右,是N-MCS相应数值的一半左右。高原东部两类MCS的环流特征差异显著,有利于V-MCS发生、维持和东移的因子主要位于对流层中低层（西风带短波槽、西风引导气流、低层风场切变）,而在对流层高层,N-MCS拥有更好的高空辐散条件（其对应的南亚高压更强）。     

赴英国参加国际会议总结

2009年3月30日至4月4日,国家气候中心许红梅作为英国自然环境研究理事会资助项目“定量理解地球系统” （ QUEST ： Quantifying and Un derstanding the Earth System）第3课题“全球尺度气候变化的影响：多部门综合评估（ GSI： Global-Scale Impacts of Climate Change： an Integrated Multi-Sectoral Assessment ）”的参加人,受英国伦敦学院大学（UCL：University College London）地理系邀请,参加了在UCI,召开的QUEST—GSI项目关于水资源的研讨会。     

201109 号梅花（Muifa）台风分析

利用TRMM（Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite）反演降水资料,MTSAT（Multi-functional Transport Satellite）反演亮温资料,自动站降水资料,以及CFSR（Climate Forecast System Reanalysis）再分析资料,对201109号“梅花”台风进行分析,结果表明：高空槽与副热带高压的调整共同导致了路径的异常;水汽输送带的断裂,决定了“梅花”台风的降水强度较弱;垂直运动以及对流不稳定强度使降水水平分布不均匀,东多西少;SST（Sea Surface Temperature）暖水区有利于台风的增强。     

东南亚地区未来气候变化的区域气候模式预估

在联合区域气候降尺度试验CORDEX(Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment)的框架下,使用全球气候模式MPI-ESM-MR（简称MPI）的模拟结果,驱动区域气候模式RegCM4(Regional Climate Mode version 4),开展了在中等温室气体排放路径RCP4.5下的东南亚区域21世纪气候变化预估试验。试验中模式的水平分辨率为25 km×25 km,积分时间为1981～2099年。模式对东南亚区域当代（1986～2005年）气候的模拟结果表明：MPI与RegCM4对这一区域年平均气温、降水的空间分布特征均具有较好的模拟能力;相比于全球模式,高分辨率的RegCM4提供了空间分布上更为精细的气候信息,但其模拟的气温存在系统性冷偏差,对降水的模拟则普遍偏多。对未来气候变化的预估显示,MPI与RegCM4预估的未来气温均一致表现为增加,至21世纪末期（2081～2099年）,预估的区域年平均气温升高幅度分别为1.8°C和1.7°C。二者对降水的预估则存在较大差异,MPI预估的年平均降水有不同程度增加,而Reg...     

Multimodel ensemble forecasts for precipitations in China in 1998

Different multimodel ensemble methods are used to forecast precipitations in China, 1998, and their forecast skills are compared with those of individual models. Datasets were obtained from monthly simulations of eight models during the period of January 1979 to December 1998 from the “Climate of the 20th Century Experiment” （20C3M） for the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report. Climate Research Unit （CRU） data were chosen for the observation analysis field. Root mean square （RMS） error and correlation coeffi-cients （R） are used to measure the forecast skills. In addition, superensemble forecasts based on different input data and weights are analyzed. Results show that for original data, superensemble forecasting based on multiple linear regression （MLR） performs best. However, for bias-corrected data, the superensemble based on singular value decomposition （SVD） produces a lower RMS error and a higher R than in the MLR superensemble. It is an interesting result that the SVD superensemble based on bias-corrected data performs better than the MLR superensemble, but that the SVD superensemble based on original data is inferior to the corresponding MLR superensemble. In addition, weights calculated by different data formats are shown to affect the forecast skills of the superensembles. In comparison with the MLR superensemble, a slightly significant effect is present in the SVD superensemble. However, both the SVD and MLR superensembles based on different weight formats outperform the ensemble mean of bias-corrected data.     

中国气象局将举办第三届“气候系统与气候变化国际讲习班”

由中国气象局主办,国家外国专家局和国家自然科学基金委协办的第三届气候系统与气候变化国际讲习班(International Seminar on Climate System and Climate Change,ISCS)将于2006年7月17-29日在     

Preface

The Climate System Model Development and Application Studies （CSMDA for short） is an International Partnership Program for Creative Research Teams that was started in October 2004 and is supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS）. The initial objectives are ＂to develop a sustainable climate system model that can represent the interaction of different spheres in the climate system, to provide a cross-cut research platform for atmospheric sciences, oceanography and other related fields, and to offer theoretical support for developing and improving reasonable short-range climate prediction systems＂.     

参加第3届区域气候模式理论和应用研讨会总结

2006年5月29日至6月9日，由国际理论物理研究中心（The Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics，ICTP）主办的第3届区域气候模式理论和应用研讨会（Third ICTP Workshop on the Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models），在意大利的滨海城市的里雅斯特（Trieste，ICTP的所在地）举行。与会人员包括来自不同国家的140余名专家、学者和学员。高学杰研究员代表国家气候中心，是会议的5名组织者之一，与国家气候中心徐影博士，研究生张冬峰、石英、曹丽娟，访问学者徐集云（浙江省气象局）参加了会议。中国农业科学院、中国科学院大气物理研究所等单位的专家和研究生也应邀参加了会议。     

Relationships between Interannual and Intraseasonal Variations of the Asian-Western Pacific Summer Monsoon Hindcasted by BCC_CSM1.1（m）

Using hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, the relationships between interannual variability （IAV） and intraseasonal variability （ISV） of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon are diagnosed. Predictions show reasonable skill with respect to some basic characteristics of the ISV and IAV of the western North Pacific summer monsoon （WNPSM） and the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）. However, the links between the seasonally averaged ISV （SAISV） and seasonal mean of ISM are overestimated by the model. This deficiency may be partially attributable to the overestimated frequency of long breaks and underestimated frequency of long active spells of ISV in normal ISM years, although the model is capable of capturing the impact of ISV on the seasonal mean by its shift in the probability of phases. Furthermore, the interannual relationships of seasonal mean, SAISV, and seasonally averaged long-wave variability （SALWV; i.e., the part with periods longer than the intraseasonal scale） of the WNPSM and ISM with SST and low-level circulation are examined. The observed seasonal mean, SAISV, and SALWV show similar correlation patterns with SST and atmospheric circulation, but with different details. However, the model presents these correlation distributions with unrealistically small differences among different scales, and it somewhat overestimates the teleconnection between monsoon and tropical central-eastern Pacific SST for the ISM, but underestimates it for the WNPSM, the latter of which is partially related to the too-rapid decrease in the impact of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation with forecast time in the model.     

一个海洋环流模式模拟的北印度洋经向环流及其热输送

对比两个同化资料GODAS（Global Ocean Data Assimilation System）和SODA（Simple Ocean Data Assimilation）,考察中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室发展的气候系统海洋模式LICOM（LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model）模拟的北印度洋经向环流及热输送的气候态。LICOM能抓住北印度洋大尺度环流的季节变化特征,模拟的年平均越赤道热输送为-0.24 PW （1 PW=1015W）,较之以往的数值模式结果更接近观测和同化资料。与同化资料的差异主要体现在季节变化强度,北半球夏季在赤道以南偏弱0.5 PW,这与模式夏季的纬向风应力偏弱,热输送中的大项Ekman热输送模拟偏弱,从而模拟的经圈翻转环流较浅有关。     

Inter-Comparison of lO-year Precipitation Simulated by Several RCMs for Asia

In phase Ⅱ of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project （RMIP） for Asia, the regional climate has been simulated for July 1988 through December 1998 by five regional climate models and one global variable resolution model. Comparison of the 10-year simulated precipitation with the observations was carried out. The results show that most models have the capacity to reproduce the basic spatial pattern of precipitation for Asia, and the main rainbelt can be reproduced by most models, but there are distinctions in the location and the intensity. Most models overestimate the precipitation over most continental regions. Interannual variability of the precipitation can also be basically simulated, while differences exist between various models and the observations. The biases in the stream field are important reasons behind the simulation errors of the Regional Climate Models （RCMs）. The cumulus scheme and land surface process have large influences on the precipitation simulation. Generally, the Grell cumulus scheme produces more precipitation than the Kuo scheme.     

LICOM海洋模式对南大洋环流的模拟评估

使用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室（LASG/IAP）开发的第三代气候海洋模式（LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model version 3, LICOM3.0）低分辨率版本在海洋模式比较计划（Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, OMIP）试验中的模拟数据,描述了南极绕极流（Antarctic Circumpolar Current, ACC）和南大洋经向翻转环流（Meridional Overturning Circulation, MOC）在1958～2009年的平均状态及其变化,并与已有的模式模拟结果和观测结果对比以评估LICOM模式的模拟效果。通过对比已有模式模拟数据发现,LICOM3.0模式模拟的ACC和南大洋MOC在两组OMIP试验中平均状态相仿、结果在合理范围内,但OMIP1试验中海表强迫的变化趋势较OMIP2试验中的变化更大,得到的环流输送在OMIP1试验中增长趋势也更大。