从蒋家沟泥石流阵流看泥石流堆积

野外观测和实验证明，泥石流的堆积是经过无数随机的“元堆积”叠加形成的。“元堆积”保留了泥石流的活动特征。根据云南东川蒋家沟泥石流阵流资料和阵流的数值模拟，发现堆积厚度与阵流的深度和速度，在统计上是一致的，说明了堆积与运动之间的系统性联系。这种联系为泥石流活动的系统性和泥石流灾害的评估提供了新的线索。     

试析小流域土力类粘性泥石流的汇流过程——以滇东北大凹子沟为例

在分析土力类泥石流的产流特征和规律，尤其是土源与水源关系的基础上，将水文学上常用的等流时线法的基本原理应用于小流域土力类粘性泥石流的汇流计算。在具体的计算中，以滇东北蒋家沟的一支沟－大凹子沟1994－06－16的泥石流为例进行泥石流汇流流量过程的试算。计算的结果应用观测的一些数值及现象和弯道超高的最大流量计算值检验，结果表明此计算大体可以定量地反映该流域流量的过程。通过此汇流计算还可以了解阵性泥石流与连续泥石流的产生关系和机理，也可以了解降雨时段与产流时段及汇流过程时段的差别。该研究的结果也存在主客观的局限性，这一局限性反映了进一步探讨流域的产流量规律、流域等流时区划分的规律、大流域汇流计算和泥石流的波坦化规律的必然性。     

阵性泥石流的周期性分析

对东川蒋家沟发生的一次阵性泥石流序列进行周期性分析。然后根据分析结果，提出了泥石流发生相关的几个问题。     

泥石流地声研究及遥测地声警报器研制

泥石流摩擦、撞击沟床而引起的弹性波,以岩石等介质传播,称之为泥石流地声。通过以微机为核心的数据采集和处理系统,迄1985年止,共实测18场,上千阵次包含有各种类型和规模的泥石流资料,弄清了泥石流地声的主要特性,即强度、带宽及相应的能量。它们为我们评价其对工程建筑物的     

从空间Poisson过程看蒋家沟泥石流

云南东川蒋家沟泥石流频率高,变化多.每场泥石流包含几十到几百个阵流,各阵流具有不同的密度、流体性质和运动形态,流量涨落达3个数量级.这些特征意味着泥石流具有很强的随机性.根据蒋家沟的演化分区和野外观测,可以发现泥石流形成于特殊的源地分支.土体活动(包括滑坡、崩塌和局部的土体流动等)随机发生在那些分支流域,如果认为各源地的土体活动是独立的,而且活动强度正比于源地的面积,那么泥石流的形成和汇流就是一个空间Poisson过程.其结果是阵流流量服从指数分布,这很好地符合蒋家沟的泥石泥观测数据.从蒋家沟泥石流的随机性可见,泥石流依赖于流域的特定源区及其分布,而不是笼统地取决于全流域的地貌或几何因子.     

泥石流堆积的分布

野外观测和实验模拟表明，泥石流堆积是通过若干阵流在保持相对完整的形态下叠加形成的。本文利用蒋家沟阵流的观测数据，根据阵流流深一流速关系和各自分布，并结合浊流的堆积分布、数值模拟的流深、堆积分布，提出泥石流堆积厚度的分布具有与流深相同的负幂分布形式，并估计了分布指数的下限。结果表明，泥石流堆积厚度的分布很不均匀，分布的估计为堆积区的危险性的划分提供了新的定量依据。     

流团模型在泥石流危险度分区中的应用

应用王光谦等发展的流团模型，在泥石流摩阻为速度的二次多项式的条件下，根据一定的地形条件、流量过程线及泥石流体的一些参数，模拟了泥石流在堆积扇上的扩散堆积运动。由数值模拟结果，以泥石流的最大动能为分区指标，建立了泥石流危险度分区模型。最后将该方法应用到云南东川尼拉姑沟，取得了该沟50a一遇泥石流的泛滥范围和危险度分区。     

泥石流的结构两相流模型:Ⅱ.应用

本文应用泥石流的结构两相流模型对各类泥石流的运动机理进行探讨,并成功地解释了泥石流运动中的一系列特殊现象,如可能出现的颗粒浓度“上大下小”型分布、泥石流垂线速度的“反Ｓ”型分布、泥石流中颗粒脉动速度分布变化的特殊性、泥石流的输移特性以及在一定条件下出现的“流核”现象,等等。模型计算结果得到了实验资料的验证。     

颗粒组成与泥石流运动的涨落

泥石流物源、流体和堆积物的颗粒分布满足P(D)=CD~(-μ)exp(-D/Dc),其中参数C,μ和D_c由传统的粒径分布特征决定。μ随细颗粒(特别是粘粒)含量的增大而增大,D_c刻画粒径的范围,且随粗粒含量而增大。蒋家沟泥石流的观测表明,同一场泥石流包含着数十到数百个不同性质、流态和规模的阵流。阵流的涨落和多样性是与流体的颗粒组成密切相关的。一定的颗粒组成对应着一定的饱和颗粒浓度,决定一定的饱和流体状态。阵流的涨落,是在没有达到饱和状态时的随机运动的状态。阵流涨落随D_c增大而趋于平缓;当流体达到饱和态时,阵流达到最大的流深、流速和流量,且与颗分参数(μ,D_c)具有幂函数关系。运用本文的方法,可根据颗分参数来预估泥石流的性质和规模。     

泥石流的结构两相流模型：I.应用

本文应用泥石流的结构两相流模型对各类泥石流的运动机理进行探讨,并成功地解释了泥石流运动中的一系列特殊现象,如可能出现的颗粒浓度“上大下小”型分布,泥石流垂线速度的“反Ｓ”型分布,泥石流中颗粒脉动速度分布变化的特殊性,泥石流的输移特性以及在一定条件下出现的“流核”现象,等等,模型计算结果得到了实验资料的验证。     

Protracted Active Surge Phase in the High Arctic (Svalbard): Dynamic Development and Morphological Impact

Glacial surges in Svalbard are protracted and characterized by individual dynamic evolution, in contrast to many other areas, which calls for a subdivision of the classic two‐phased surge cycle. A dominating part of the ice masses seem to have a surge potential and this represents a considerable challenge for palaeoclimatic studies. Glaciological and geological models therefore need to be coupled. The issue is discussed with Fridtjovbreen glacier as an example. This ice mass is one of few glaciers studied throughout a surge cycle. It was active for 12 years (1991–2002) and represents the most protracted surge documented. The maximum advance rate was 4.2 m day^?1, its maximum extent was reached after seven years, its run‐out distance was 4 km, and the relocated ice filled 5 km² of the fjord. Intense subglacial thrusting occurred during various stages, including part of the ice‐front retreat, as shown by sub‐bottom profiling data from 2002. A six‐stage model is presented and processes are discussed with emphasis on the ice‐front retreat with transition to the quiescent phase. Although the surge mechanism itself is unrelated to climate, climatic conditions obviously play a major role in the course of a surge. During the surge, the ice mass made a dramatic impression in the landscape, but 10 years after the maximum extent, there is little onshore evidence of the event.     

珠江三角洲地区风暴潮重现期及增水与环境要素的关系

珠江三角洲地区是我国海岸中台风暴潮最严重的区域之一,受全球变暖和海平面上升影响,该地区风暴潮增水重现值将出现显著的变化。本文采用耿贝尔方法和皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布法,分别计算了珠江三角洲地区11个潮位站的最大增水值的重现期,并对计算结果进行了比较,绘制了风暴潮增水重现值分布曲线。结果表明大部分潮位站的耿贝尔分布曲线与经验频率点吻合程度较好,少数潮位站的皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布曲线与经验频率点吻合程度较好,两种方法结合起来效果最佳;分析了该地区风暴潮重现期的基本特征;最后总结了风暴潮与台风路径、天文潮以及地形之间的关系。该计算结果将为政府规划设计部门决策提供参考,对风暴潮预报、海岸工程设计和估计风暴潮造成的损失提供科学依据。     

粘性泥石流残留层的形成及减阻作用--以云南蒋家沟泥石流为例

通过对云南蒋家沟粘性泥石流的野外观测 ,讨论了粘性泥石流残留层的定义特征 ,在大量实测数据基础上 ,分析了残留层易形成时段的特性 ;分别对一次泥石流过程、若干阵泥石流和一阵泥石流残留层的变化进行了相关分析 ;最后用观测数据分析了泥石流残留层的减阻作用     

黄河三角洲风暴潮灾害及其防御对策

古黄河三角洲和现代黄河三角洲风暴潮灾害平均发生周期分别为11.3 a和6.4 a。现代黄河三角洲风暴潮灾害平均发生周期由1949年前的5.5~6.5 a延长至1949年以来的7.9 a,发生频率虽有所降低,但大型风暴潮灾害发生频率呈上升趋势,需修筑高等级的防潮堤坝。黄河三角洲风暴潮灾害取决于气象、地形和水文要素的综合效应:在气象因素制约下具有多发于初冬、春4月和台风期的季节特征;在地形因素制约下具有易发于SE风转NE风的天气特征;在水文因素制约下显示以近无潮点岸段为界,三角洲西、南两地成灾异时的特征。据此,开展风暴潮灾害预报和堤坝建设,可抵御潮灾和减轻潮灾危害。     

On analysis and forecasting of surges on the west coast of Great Britain

Summary. Surges are analysed by the regression technique. On the west coast of Britain surges are strongly correlated with meteorological variables such as barometric pressure and winds. The north—south component of wind is more effective than the east-west component in the generation of surges at Fish-guard and Portpatrick. The surge elevations at these ports are linearly proportional to the wind velocity. This pattern changes near Liverpool where the east—west component of wind dominates the development of surges. Here the surges are related to the square of the wind velocity. Moreover, the north-south component of wind over St George's Channel is marginally more effective than the north—south component of wind in the local area of the port, which suggests that a component of the surge near Liverpool is transported through St George's Channel. Spatial correlations of Fishguard, Holyhead and Liverpool surges also support this result. However, it is found that the forrnulation of a regression equation with simultaneous input of meteorological variables and spatial surges is ill-conditioned. Non-linearity resulting from surge-tide interaction is negligible at Fishguard and Portpatrick. The development of non-linearity starts when surges progress from Fishguard to Holy-head. The non-linear component is small near Holyhead but becomes a significant part of surges observed at Liverpool. The non-linear component may be represented as a modulation of the tide by a slow time-varying component of the surge. The component of surge variance which can be estimated by the regression model is over 70 per cent for Liverpool, 60 per cent for Holyhead and 50 per cent for Fishguard.     

风暴潮灾害脆弱性研究综述

脆弱性是自然灾害风险研究的热点,风暴潮灾害脆弱性与风暴潮自然过程强度以及沿海社会经济、人口、自然环境等因素相关。本文从风暴潮灾害脆弱性定义出发,对国内外风暴潮灾害社会脆弱性和物理脆弱性进行了回顾,重点对人口、海堤、房屋等风暴潮灾害典型承灾体物理脆弱性研究进展进行了论述,分析了风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价中存在的不确定性,探讨了风暴潮灾害脆弱性在灾害损失评估、保险及再保险、防灾减灾决策支持等领域的应用,对未来风暴潮灾害脆弱性研究提出了以下展望：①开发符合中国沿海区域风暴潮灾害特征和承灾体分布的定量化、精细化脆弱性曲线,拓展风暴潮脆弱性评价结果在保险理赔、灾害损失评估等领域应用;②气候变化背景下中国沿海面临风暴潮巨灾风险,迫切需要建立科学的基于灾害实地踏勘以及物模实验、数值模拟相结合的风暴潮灾害典型承灾体脆弱性评估方法模型。     

新奥尔良飓风灾难与华南沿海台风暴潮

分析了新奥尔良的地理环境,概述了卡特里娜飓风与丽塔飓风及其对新奥尔良的影响.简述了华南沿海的台风暴潮灾害情况,提出了新奥尔良飓风灾难对华南沿海的几点警示:(1)加强提高防御台风暴潮灾害的认识;(2)保护好沿海抗御台风暴潮的"前沿阵地;(3)加强和完善防台风暴潮应急预案;(4)应对台风暴潮要充分考虑全球环境变化.     

Glaciomarine sedimentation in a modern fjord environment, Spitsbergen

By means of high resolution acoustic profiling and correlation of echo character and sediment lithology, fjords in western and northern Spitsbergen are shown to be blanketed by a 5-20 m layer of acoustically transparent sediments consisting mainly of soft homogeneous mud with ice rafted clasts. Acoustically semi-transparent material is found on slopes and sills reflecting their coarser composition. The areal average depositional rate in the outer fjord is in the range of from 0.1 to 1.0 mm/year, increasing towards the glaciers. In Kongsfjorden, 50-100 mm/year of muddy sediments is deposited at a distance of 10 km from the calving Kongsvegen glacier. Close to the ice front (<0.5 km) coarser grained, interbedded (sand/mud) sediments are deposited. The main sediment sources are from settlement out of the turbid surface sediment plume, combined with various types of gravity flow (sediment creep, minor slides, and slumping). Material deposited from turbidity current is probably of minor importance. On shallow sills the sediments are remobilized by icebergs. The sediment adjacent to the ice front is reworked and compacted during surges, a common form of glacial advance for Spitsbergen glaciers. During the surge considerable amounts of coarse-grained sediment are deposited by meltwater in front of the ice margin.     

气候变化背景下中国风暴潮灾害风险及适应对策研究进展

风暴潮是沿海地区在强烈的大气扰动条件下产生的异常增水现象,并受海平面上升等因素的影响。中国风暴潮灾害频繁,其中尤以东南沿海地区发生频率较高,灾害损失严重。本文从风暴潮灾害的危险性、承灾体的易损性、综合风险区划3个方面系统总结风暴潮灾害的研究进展及存在的主要问题;并以风暴潮灾情特征及风险评估为基础,探讨气候变化对风暴潮灾害风险的影响及其适应对策。气候变化引起的海平面上升将影响风暴潮的趋势、周期及风险区域,因而亟待开展结合海平面上升等因素的综合风险评估。充分考虑气候变化背景下沿海地区自然条件变化及社会经济发展状况,注重短期与长期相结合,完善风险评估体系。为适度、有序的适应气候变化下风暴潮灾害风险,中国在应急预警机制、工程防御及政策法规等适应能力建设方面不断完善,以提高风暴潮灾害的防灾减灾能力。