Consequences of powerful volcanic eruptions according to dendrochronological data

For the first time we identify the peculiarities of the effect of the most powerful (VEI > 5) volcanic eruptions on the regional climate of the Murmansk region on the basis of Kola Peninsula dendrochronological data for a period of more than 560 years. The analysis was based on the tree-ring chronology covering the period from 1445 to 2005. This chronology was derived from Pinus sylvestris samples collected near the northern tree line at Loparskaya station (68°37′ N; 33°14′ E). The data were processed using modern techniques adopted in dendrochronology (cross dating and standardization). We reveal a significant decrease in the radial tree-ring growth over 8 years (on average) after the eruptions; then its value is restored to the normal level. This finding will help evaluate the response of the regional climate system to external climate forcings in this economically important region for Russia.     

Input reduction for long-term morphodynamic simulations in wave-dominated coastal settings

Input reduction is imperative to long-term (> years) morphodynamic simulations to avoid excessive computation times. Here, we introduce an input-reduction framework for wave-dominated coastal settings. Our framework comprises 4 steps, viz. (1) the selection of the duration of the original (full) time series of wave forcing, (2) the selection of the representative wave conditions, (3) the sequencing of these conditions, and (4) the time span after which the sequence is repeated. In step (2), the chronology of the original series is retained, while that is no longer the case in steps (3) and (4). We apply the framework to two different sites (Noordwijk, Netherlands and Hasaki, Japan) with multiple nearshore sandbars but contrasting long-term offshore-directed behavior: at Noordwijk the offshore migration is gradual and not coupled to individual storms, while at Hasaki the offshore migration is more episodic, and wave chronology appears to control long-term evolution. The performance of the model with reduced wave climates is referenced to a simulation with the actual (full) wave-forcing series. We demonstrate that input reduction can dramatically affect long-term predictions, even to such an extent that the main characteristics of the offshore bar cycle are no longer reproduced. This was particularly the case at Hasaki, where all synthetic series that no longer capture the initial chronology (steps 3 and 4) lead to rather unrealistic long-term simulations. At Noordwijk, synthetic series can result in realistic behavior, provided that the time span after which the sequence is repeated is not too large; the reduction of this time span has the same positive effect on the simulation as increasing the number of selected conditions in step 2. We further demonstrate that, although storms result in the largest morphological change, conditions with low to intermediate wave energy must be retained to obtain realistic long-term sandbar behavior. Our input-reduction framework must be applied in an iterative fashion as to obtain a reduced wave climate that simulates long-term sandbar sufficiently accurately within an acceptable computation time. Given its potentially huge impact on the actual simulation, we believe it is imperative to consider input reduction as an intrinsic part of model set-up, calibration and validation.     

Are trends in SeaWiFS chlorophyll time-series unusual relative to historic variability

For selected locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, we compared surface ocean chlorophyll time series extracted from SeaWiFS imagery from 1997–2004 with the results of an ocean coupled circulation and biogeochemical model covering the period 1958–2004. During the 1997–2004 time period, linear trends in model and satellite time series were significantly correlated at most of the 44 sites we studied. Eleven sites were selected for further study, and we used the longer time series of the model to assess whether trends observed during the SeaWiFS period at these 11 sites were unusual in relation to those observed over the longer historical period covered by the model. The results show that the trends observed during the SeaWiFS period were not unusual and fell well within the range in magnitude of linear trends observed in other 8-year periods of model output. This result implies that the SeaWiFS satellite ocean color time series is not yet sufficiently long, on its own, to directly observe any long term changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll that may be occurring in the surface waters of the open ocean as a result of increased ocean stratification linked to global climate changed.     

Steric height trends at Ocean Station Papa in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

Abstract

We estimate secular changes in steric sea level in the northeast Pacific Ocean using the 27‐year time series of monthly hydrographic observations for Station PAPA (50°N, 145°W). Linear trends based on the entire data record suggest that steric heights relative to 1000 db are increasing at a rate of 0.93 mm/yr and that 67% of this increase is due to thermosteric changes at depths below 100 m; the smaller halosteric contribution to the steric trend appears to be confined to the upper 100 m. A trend of 0(1 mm/yr) is consistent with estimates of sea level rise based on coastal tide gauge records. However, a critical examination of the results indicates that sea level changes of such small magnitude would be masked by the large (1–10 cm) interannual variability of open ocean steric height. This is verified by recalculation of trends using abridged versions of the data set. We conclude that our trend estimates are still open to question and that the present 27‐year time series is too short to permit accurate resolution of possible climate‐induced changes in global sea level.     

内蒙古准格尔旗树轮年表的建立及其气候意义

通过在内蒙古准格尔旗建立树轮宽度年表、早材宽度年表和晚材宽度年表，并和邻近呼和浩特气象站的资料进行相关分析，结果表明各年表和2—6月的降水量之和呈正相关关系。在准格尔旗西南方向、相距约500km的贺兰山树木生长主要受到5—7月降水量的支配。从这两个区域气象站资料的对比中发现，月降水量、月平均温度的多年平均值在年内表现出非常好的一致性，对应单月月降水量、月平均温度序列显著相关，反映了其受共同的气候驱动因子支配。从两个区域年表对各自气象站气候因子的响应可以看出，树木的生长都主要受到生长季前期和生长季早期降水量的支配。     

Localized versus regional adaptation in limpet shell morphology across the Iberian Peninsula

The climate‐envelope approach to predicting climate‐induced species range shift is limited. There are many possible reasons for this, but one novel explanation is that species adapt to changes in temperature at the expense of adaptation to other stressors. Here we test this hypothesis using the limpet Patella depressa (Mollusca, Patellidae), over a large geographical area covering most of the Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula, known to consist of a genetically inter‐connected population. We examine limpet shell morphology on four shores in each of three regions, from Northern Spain to Southern Portugal. Within each region, shell morphology (measured as maximum shell profile to length ratio) varied between shore types differing in their insolation, wave action, microhabitat availability and biological factors. However, this ratio, which is known to be an adaptive response to heat stress, was found to be consistently higher in more southern latitudes despite differences between shore types being found in all regions. This implies that localized adaptation to shore type (most likely through phenotypic plasticity) is compromised by factors that change over latitudinal or regional scales, or which could occur in response to climate change. Although such climate‐induced changes may initially be localized, compromised adaptation (through phenotypic or genetic plasticity) may result in altered community interactions and potentially large shifts in community structure.     

Coherence of long-term variations of zooplankton in two sectors of the California Current System

We analyzed long-term (56-year) variations in springtime biomass of the zooplankton of the California Current System from two primary regions sampled by CalCOFI: Southern California (SC) and Central California (CC) waters. All organisms were enumerated from the plankton samples and converted to organic carbon biomass using length-carbon relationships, then aggregated into 19 major taxa. Planktonic copepods dominate the carbon biomass in both SC (59%) and CC (46%), followed by euphausiids (18% and 25% of mean biomass in SC and CC, respectively). Pelagic tunicates, especially salps and doliolids, constituted a higher fraction of the biomass in CC (13%) than in SC (5%). There was no long-term trend detectable in total zooplankton carbon biomass, in marked contrast to a decline in zooplankton displacement volume in both regions. The difference between these biomass metrics is accounted for by a long-term decline in pelagic tunicates (particularly salps), which have a relatively high ratio of biovolume:carbon. The decline in pelagic tunicates was accompanied by a long-term increase in water column density stratification. No other taxa showed a decline over the duration of the study, apart from salps and pyrosomes in SC and doliolids in CC. Some zooplankton taxa showed compensatory increases over the same time period (ostracods, large decapods, and calycophoran siphonophores in both SC and CC; appendicularians and polychaetes in SC). Two tests for ecosystem shifts, a sequential algorithm and the cumulative sum of anomalies (CuSum) approach, failed to detect changes in 1976-1977 in total carbon biomass, displacement volume, or most individual major taxa, suggesting that aggregated biomass is an insensitive indicator of climate forcing. In contrast, both techniques revealed a cluster of step-like changes associated with the La Niña of 1999. The major El Niño’s in the past half century have consistently depressed total zooplankton biomass and biomass of many major taxa in both SC and CC, although such effects are transitory. Much, but not all, of the interannual variability in zooplankton is shared between the Southern and Central California sectors of the California Current System.     

Forecasting the consequences of climate-driven shifts in human behavior on cetaceans

While climate change is expected to affect cetaceans primarily via loss of habitat and changes in prey availability, additional consequences may result from climate-driven shifts in human behaviors and economic activities. For example, increases in shipping, oil and gas exploration and fishing due to the loss of Arctic sea ice are highly likely to exacerbate acoustic disturbance, ship strikes, bycatch and prey depletion for Arctic cetaceans. In the tropics, climate change may result in increased hunting pressure on near-shore dolphins and whales off Asia, Latin America, Africa, and elsewhere as the availability of other marine resources diminishes. This study explores the range of potential consequences to cetaceans worldwide from predicted climate-driven shifts in human behavior, and evaluates the risks to particular species given their geographic ranges and habitat preferences. While concern about impacts of climate change on cetaceans has largely focused on polar species, the analysis presented here suggests tropical coastal and riverine cetaceans such as the Irawaddy dolphin, Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin, and finless porpoise are particularly vulnerable to those aspects of climate change that are mediated by changes in human behavior. Policy recommendations include the following: (1) information about cetacean populations should be incorporated into national, regional and international climate adaptation decisions wherever possible (for example, via GEF-sponsored adaptation initiatives); and (2) human-mediated impacts of climate change should be included in cetacean conservation and management plans, such as the management procedures of the International Whaling Commission (IWC), where possible. Because human responses to climate change are likely to evolve rapidly over the coming years and decades, it is important that local, regional and international cetacean conservation and management plans include regular reviews to allow them to adapt to new information.     

A hybrid efficient method to downscale wave climate to coastal areas

Long-term time series of sea state parameters are required in different coastal engineering applications. In order to obtain wave data at shallow water and due to the scarcity of instrumental data, ocean wave reanalysis databases ought to be downscaled to increase the spatial resolution and simulate the wave transformation process. In this paper, a hybrid downscaling methodology to transfer wave climate to coastal areas has been developed combining a numerical wave model (dynamical downscaling) with mathematical tools (statistical downscaling). A maximum dissimilarity selection algorithm (MDA) is applied in order to obtain a representative subset of sea states in deep water areas. The reduced number of selected cases spans the marine climate variability, guaranteeing that all possible sea states are represented and capturing even the extreme events. These sea states are propagated using a state-of-the-art wave propagation model. The time series of the propagated sea state parameters at a particular location are reconstructed using a non-linear interpolation technique based on radial basis functions (RBFs), providing excellent results in a high dimensional space with scattered data as occurs in the cases selected with MDA. The numerical validation of the results confirms the ability of the developed methodology to reconstruct sea state time series in shallow water at a particular location and to estimate different spatial wave climate parameters with a considerable reduction in the computational effort.     

长江口区全新世古环境变化及其对黑潮变动的响应

将长江口区古环境变化的历史资料与冲绳海槽黑潮演变的沉积记录进行直接对比，确定了全新世百、千年尺度的气候波动和短期事件与长江口区生存环境变化的时间序列，发现人类社会的历史进程与自然的发展（气候波动）具有一定的对应关系，如黑潮增强、气候温暖时期适宜农业发展和社会稳定，而黑潮减弱、气候变冷时期容易发生人类迁徒和社会动荡。这不仅对于揭示全球气候演变机制，特别是短期气候事件至关重要，而且对于了解人类生存环境的变化趋势也具有相当重要的意义。     

Assessment of the Jason Microwave Radiometer's Measurement of Wet Tropospheric Path Delay Using Comparisons to SSM/I and TMI

The Jason microwave radiometer (JMR) provides a crucial correction due to water vapor in the troposphere, and a much smaller correction due to liquid water, to the travel time of the Jason-1 altimeter radar pulse. An error of any size in the radiometer's measurement of wet path delay translates as an error of equal size in the measurement of sea surface height, the ultimate quantity that the altimetric system should yield. The estimate of globally-averaged sea surface height change associated with climate change, requires that uncertainties in the trends in such a global average be accurate to much better than the signal of 1-2 mm/yr. We first compare the JMR observations to those from the TOPEX/Poseidon radiometer (TMR) over approximately six months, since the intent of Jason is to continue the 10-year time series of precision ocean surface topography initiated by T/P. We then assess the stability of the JMR measurement by comparing its wet path delay to those of other orbiting radiometers over 22 months, specifically the Special Sensor Microwave Imager aboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP-SSM/I) series of satellites, and the Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission's Microwave Imager (TMI), as well as the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting's (ECMWF) atmospheric numerical model estimate of water vapor. From the combined set, we obtain a robust assessment of the stability of JMR measurements. We find, that JMR is in remarkable agreement with TMR, only 2.5 mm longer, and 6-7 mm standard deviation on their difference in 0.5 degree averages; that JMR has experienced a globally-averaged step-function change, yielding an apparent shortening in wet path delay estimates of 4-5 mm around October 2002 (Jason cycles 28-32); that this step-function is visible only in the 23.8 GHz channel; and that the 34 GHz channel appears to drift at a rate of -0.4K/year. In addition, we find that, while in 2002 there was no evidence of sensitivity to the Jason satellite's attitude (a correlation of the wet path delay with yaw state), in 2003 there are strong (2-3 mm, up to 7 mm globally averaged) changes associated with such yaw state. These JMR issues were all found in the first 22 months of Jason's geophysical data records (GDR) data, and thus they apply to any investigations that use such data without further corrections.     

Assessment of the Jason Microwave Radiometer's Measurement of Wet Tropospheric Path Delay Using Comparisons to SSM/I and TMI

The Jason microwave radiometer (JMR) provides a crucial correction due to water vapor in the troposphere, and a much smaller correction due to liquid water, to the travel time of the Jason-1 altimeter radar pulse. An error of any size in the radiometer's measurement of wet path delay translates as an error of equal size in the measurement of sea surface height, the ultimate quantity that the altimetric system should yield. The estimate of globally-averaged sea surface height change associated with climate change, requires that uncertainties in the trends in such a global average be accurate to much better than the signal of 1–2 mm/yr. We first compare the JMR observations to those from the TOPEX/Poseidon radiometer (TMR) over approximately six months, since the intent of Jason is to continue the 10-year time series of precision ocean surface topography initiated by T/P. We then assess the stability of the JMR measurement by comparing its wet path delay to those of other orbiting radiometers over 22 months, specifically the Special Sensor Microwave Imager aboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP-SSM/I) series of satellites, and the Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission's Microwave Imager (TMI), as well as the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting's (ECMWF) atmospheric numerical model estimate of water vapor. From the combined set, we obtain a robust assessment of the stability of JMR measurements. We find, that JMR is in remarkable agreement with TMR, only 2.5 mm longer, and 6–7 mm standard deviation on their difference in 0.5 degree averages; that JMR has experienced a globally-averaged step-function change, yielding an apparent shortening in wet path delay estimates of 4–5 mm around October 2002 (Jason cycles 28–32); that this step-function is visible only in the 23.8 GHz channel; and that the 34 GHz channel appears to drift at a rate of ?0.4K/year. In addition, we find that, while in 2002 there was no evidence of sensitivity to the Jason satellite's attitude (a correlation of the wet path delay with yaw state), in 2003 there are strong (2–3 mm, up to 7 mm globally averaged) changes associated with such yaw state. These JMR issues were all found in the first 22 months of Jason's geophysical data records (GDR) data, and thus they apply to any investigations that use such data without further corrections.     

Transfer-function modelling between environmental variation and mesozooplankton in the Baltic Sea

Time series of freshwater runoff, seawater salinity, temperature and oxygen were used in transfer functions (TF) to model changes of mesozooplankton taxa in the Baltic Sea from the 1960’s to the 1990’s. The models were then compared with long term zooplankton monitoring data from the same period. The TF models for all taxa over the whole Baltic proper and at different depth layers showed statistically significant estimates in t-tests. TF models were further compared using parsimony as a criterion. We present models showing 1) r² > 0.4, 2) the smallest residual standard error with the combination of exploratory variables, 3) the lowest number of parameters and 4) the highest proportional decrease in error term when the TF model residual standard error was compared with those of the univariate ARIMA model of the same response variable. Most often (7 taxa out of a total of 8), zooplankton taxa were dependent on freshwater runoff and/or seawater salinity. Cladocerans and estuarine copepods were more conveniently modelled through the inclusion of seawater temperature and oxygen data as independent variables. Our modelling, however, explains neither the overall increase in zooplankton abundance nor a simultaneous decrease found in the neritic copepod, Temora longicornis. Therefore, biotic controlling agents (e.g. nutrients, primary production and planktivore diets) are suggested as independent variables for further TF modelling. TF modelling enabled us to put the controlling factors in a time frame. It was then possible, despite the inherent multiple correlation among parameters studied to deduce a chain-of-events from the environmental controls and biotic feedback mechanisms to changes in zooplankton species. We suggest that the documented long-term changes in zooplankton could have been driven by climatic regulation only. The control by climate could be mediated to zooplankton through marine chemical and physical factors, as well as biotic factors if all of these were responding to the same external control, such as changes in the freshwater runoff. Increased runoff would explain both the increasing eutrophication, causing the overall increase of zooplankton, and the changes in selective predation, contributing to decline of Temora.     

A Comparative Study Between Least Square and Total Least Square Methods for Time–Series Analysis and Quality Control of Sea Level Observations

In this study, the quality control of tide gauge observations is investigated by two methods of least square (LS-HE) and total least square harmonic estimation (TLS-HE). Particularly, it is shown how to deal with unexpected anomalies, including outliers, offset and gap in the time series of sea level height. To do so, at first the time series is constructed and then a method based on variance threshold is used to eliminate the possible outliers in the observations. Subsequently, a noise assessment algorithm is implemented and the signal is processed to find the possible times of offsets and to eliminate their corresponding observations from the time series. Finally, the signal is checked to find the periods of gap within the time series and then the gap area is predicted with correct observations. Gap filling analysis is performed in two contexts. In the first, only the significant frequencies of tide are considered in the modelling procedure, while in the second, all possible frequencies according to the period of observations are included. Our results show that for modelling and gap filling, the TLS-HE method has a better performance in a comparison with LS-HE method. Although, for offset and outlier detections, the LS-HE is recommended. It also indicates that the TLS-HE method provides a regular solution for gap filling analysis while LS-HE method needs a regularization scheme for which LSQR regularization is used.     

Compound response of marine and terrestrial ecosystems to varying climate: pre-anthropogenic perspective from bivalve shell growth increments and tree-rings

Annual growth increments were examined from shells of the ocean quahog (Arctica islandica L.) from northwest Norway and from tree-ring samples of the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) from nearby coastal areas. The reconstructed annual growth increments were used to compare growth variability in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Spatiotemporal comparison of the growth records showed statistically significant correlation during the 19th century A.D., indicative of ecosystem-independent response to pre-anthropogenic climate variations. Geographical correlation between marine and terrestrial records was only observed at the local scale. Years with particularly low winter or high summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices showed the best synchronization of marine and terrestrial growth. Despite strong correlation during historical time, our palaeoecological evidence suggests that marine and terrestrial ecosystems may show dissimilar growth reaction to recently observed positive winter-NAO phases.     

Model estimates of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea in the contemporary and future climate

The St. Petersburg Baltic eutrophication model (SPBEM) is used to assess the ecological condition of the sea under possible changes in climate and nutrient loads in the 21st century. According to model estimates, in the future climate water quality will worsen, compared to modern conditions. This deterioration is stronger in the climate warming scenario with a stronger change in future near-surface air temperature. In the considered scenarios of climate change, climate warming will lead to an increase in the area of anoxic and hypoxic zones. Reduction of nutrient loading, estimated in accordance with the Baltic Sea Action Plan, will only be able to partially compensate for the negative effects of global warming.     

Numerical forecasting of the time interval between successive M8 earthquakes along the Nankai Trough,southwest Japan,using ocean bottom cable network data

One possible approach to estimating the time interval between large-scale Tōnankai (Tōkai) and Nankai earthquakes on the Japan arc is sequential assimilation of crustal deformation data. We conducted numerical modeling of sequential assimilation using surface deformation calculated from earthquake generation cycle simulations along the Nankai Trough. To account for observation noise, we used measured ocean bottom pressure gauge data, excluding tidal modulation, from a station on the ocean bottom cable network Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Kumano basin. We used sequential importance sampling as our data assimilation method. We found that as the amount of data increased, the estimated time interval between the Tōnankai and Nankai earthquakes approached the “true” observed interval. In addition, the noise in the pressure gauge data was sufficiently small that simulated crustal deformation patterns could be distinguished for different time intervals.     

An ocean model for climate variability studies

Models of the time dependent ocean circulation can be simplified considerably by filtering out all short term, small scale motions which are unimportant for climatic processes. For time scales large compared with a day and space scales large compared with the internal Rossby radius of deformation (～50 km), the currents in most of the interior ocean can be determined diagnostically as quasi-equilibrium fields, so that only the salinity and temperature fields need be treated prognostically.Regions of closed f/h contours, however, represent exceptions. Here trapped vorticity gyres exist as free flow solutions without external forcing, and in the presence of forcing the barotropic velocity field must therefore be determined prognostically through a potential vorticity equation for the gyres.Lateral boundary layers and the equatorial regions also require separate treatment. These were not considered specifically, but it is suggested that integrated (parametrical) models analogous in structure to mixed-layer models or the integrated boundary layer models of aerodynamics may be the most appropriate technique for coupling these regions to the interior ocean in a comprehensive ocean model suitable for climate studies.A coupled multi-region model of the global ocean circulation based on these scale considerations could be sufficiently cost-effective to permit systematic investigation of the role of the oceanic heat storage and transport in climate variability studies over a wide spectrum of space and time scales.The analysis of the seasonal variations of the interior ocean circulation represents a simple example in which the filtered model yields considerably simpler and more readily interpretable results than a fully three-dimensional, unfiltered model.     

Climate variability and physical forcing of the food webs and the carbon budget on panarctic shelves

Brief overviews of the Arctic’s atmosphere, ice cover, circulation, primary production and sediment regime are given to provide a conceptual framework for considering panarctic shelves under scenarios of climate variability. We draw on past ‘regional’ studies to scale-up to the panarctic perspective. Within each discipline a synthesis of salient distributions and processes is given, and then functions are noted that are critically poised and/or near transition and thereby sensitive to climate variability and change. The various shelf regions are described and distinguished among three types: inflow shelves, interior shelves and outflow shelves. Emphasis is on projected climate changes that will likely have the greatest impact on shelf-basin exchange, productivity and sediment processes including (a) changes in wind fields (e.g. currents, ice drift, upwelling and downwelling); (b) changes in sea ice distribution (e.g. radiation and wind regimes, enhanced upwelling and mixing, ice transport and scour resuspension, primary production); and (c) changes in hydrology (e.g. sediment and organic carbon delivery, nutrient supplies). A discussion is given of the key rate-controlling processes, which differ for different properties and shelf types, as do the likely responses; that is, the distributions of nutrients, organic carbon, freshwater, sediments, and trace minerals will all respond differently to climate forcing.A fundamental conclusion is that the changes associated with light, nutrients, productivity and ice cover likely will be greatest at the shelf-break and margins, and that this forms a natural focus for a coordinated international effort. Recognizing that the real value of climate research is to prepare society for possible futures, and that such research must be based both on an understanding of the past (e.g. the palaeo-record) as well as an ability to reliably predict future scenarios (e.g. validated models), two recommendations emerge: firstly, a comprehensive survey of circumpolar shelf-break and slope sediments would provide long-term synchronous records of shelf-interior ocean exchange and primary production at the shelf edge; secondly, a synoptic panarctic ice and ocean survey using heavy icebreakers, aircraft, moorings and satellites would provide the validation data and knowledge required to properly model key forcing processes at the margins.     

Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation in Sweden and its link with the large‐scale atmospheric circulation

The main characteristics of spatial and temporal variability of the precipitation regime in Sweden were studied by using the long‐term monthly precipitation amount (1890‐1990) at 33 stations. The data were filtered by using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, which provides principal modes of both spatial variability and time coefficient series describing the dominant temporal variability. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to reveal association between the atmospheric circulation and the characteristics of the climate variability. Statistically significant upward shifts in the mean precipitation have been found during cold months (March, September, November and December) and only a downward shift (less significant) for August. Simultaneous changes in the time series associated to the optimally correlated circulation patterns were found, indicating an important role of the circulation. The circulation patterns are given by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in March and December and a cyclonic structure centred over southern Scandinavia in September and November. These changes may have induced changes in the mean precipitation seasonality reflected by a shift of the maximum precipitation from August to July (after 1931 for western part and after 1961 for the southeastern coast) and after 1961 to September, October or November for other regions. Combining rotated EOF analysis with cluster analysis, 4 regions with similar climate variability were objectively identified. For these regions the standardised monthly precipitation anomalies were computed. The frequency of the extreme events (very dry/wet and dry/wet months) over 5‐year consecutive intervals was analysed. It has been concluded that extreme wet months were more frequent than extreme dry months over the entire country, especially in the northern and southeastern part.