闸控河网水文-水动力-水质耦合数学模型——I.理论

针对流域级闸控大型河网水环境日常管理的应用需求与实际特点,将资料适应性强的水文学方法与数据要求相对严苛的水动力-水质数值模型相融合,构建了一维与二维嵌套、分块组合的闸控大型河网水文-水动力-水质耦合数学模型DHQM（Hydrology, Hydrodynamics, and Water Quality Model for Impounded Rivers）。模型由河道径流模拟、闸坝调度过程模拟、河道水质模拟、区间入流及入河污染负荷估算和水质预警实时校正等5个模块组成。模型可服务于水环境实时预警和调度,也可为闸坝水文环境效应的量化提供基础工具。     

钻井船插桩对邻近桩影响的耦合欧拉-拉格朗日有限元方法研究

依据模拟钻井船在黏土层中插桩对邻近桩影响的离心模型试验结果,研究了通过耦合欧拉-拉格朗日（CEL）有限元计算并结合非线性地基梁有限元计算,分析钻井船插桩对邻近桩影响问题的可行性。CEL有限元方法将产生大变形的土体设为欧拉体,采用欧拉有限元方法计算该区域的变形响应,计算过程中,欧拉体的空间网格形状、大小位置保持不变,物质可在网格之间运动;其他土体设为拉格朗日体,采用拉格朗日有限元方法计算变形响应,计算过程中,物质的运动和网格的变形保持一致。运用罚函数方法实现欧拉体与拉格朗日体的耦合。通过CEL有限元计算,可以确定钻井船插桩导致的邻近桩桩身水平位移。进一步通过非线性地基梁有限元模型计算确定桩身弯矩。计算结果表明,利用CEL有限元方法并结合非线性地基梁有限元方法计算出的桩身位移和弯矩沿桩长的变化与离心模型试验结果基本一致。说明采用CEL有限元方法并结合非线性地基梁有限元方法分析黏土层中插桩对邻近桩的影响问题是可行的。CEL有限元模型中欧拉土体范围的设置对计算结果有明显影响。研究表明,若插桩深度小于0.75倍桩靴直径,可将欧拉土体范围设置成1.00～1.25倍桩靴直径;若插桩深度大于0.75倍桩靴直径,将欧拉土体范围取为插桩深度以下0.5倍桩靴直径是恰当的。     

闸控河网水文-水动力-水质耦合数学模型——Ⅱ.应用

针对中国多闸坝重污染河流的典型代表——淮河中游河网,为提高其流域水环境预警及应急响应能力,依据水文-水动力-水质耦合数学模型DHQM(Hydrology, Hydrodynamics, and Water Quality Model )的理论框架,构建了由淮河干流、沙颍河和涡河3个一维模块和鲁台子、蚌埠闸2个二维模块组成的淮河中游河网水文-水动力-水质耦合数学模型.采用经过验证的模型针对一个虚拟的水污染事故情景,分析了不同调度方案与淮河干流来水组合下污染团下泄对下游水质的影响;并以保障淮河干流蚌埠市饮用水源地的取水水质安全和减轻事故对下游水质的影响程度为目标,优选出分期小流量慢速下泄污染水体为最佳的水量水质联合应急调度方案.     

SPARROW模型研究及应用进展

SPARROW(SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes)模型是由美国地质调查局开发的一个基于空间的计算流域营养物质污染负荷的非线性回归模型。它使用机理函数和空间分布模块来计算流域的污染负荷,从而弥补了许多经验回归模型的缺陷。基于模型的特性,其在流域污染负荷核算、水质响应模拟、采样点空间优化、流域最大日最大污染负荷计算与水环境管理等方面有较好的应用前景。对SPARROW模型的机理、结构、输入输出变量、应用现状及在我国的应用发展前景和可能的问题进行了全面阐述和讨论,并对SPARROW模型的改进模型—贝叶斯-SPARROW模型进行简要介绍。以期为该模型在中国水环境管理中的应用提供参考。     

一维水质模型结合改进的输出系数法在流域非点源污染负荷估算中的应用

非点源污染是导致流域水体水质恶化的关键污染来源之一,为了估算流域非点源污染负荷,本文提出将一维水质模型应用于分离监测断面点源污染负荷和非点源污染负荷的方法,并结合了改进的输出系数法,以COD_Mn和NH₃-N为代表性指标,将该模型应用于潮河下游流域,并与传统的水文分割法结合改进的输出系数法估算非点源污染负荷的结果进行对比。结果表明,一维水质模型结合改进的输出系数法估算流域非点源COD_Mn和NH₃-N污染负荷模拟值的纳什系数均在0.800以上,具有良好的模拟精度,同时避免了水文分割法无法较好地模拟枯水期非点源污染负荷的弊端。该方法在运用SWAT（soil and water assessment tool）模型预测得到水文数据的情况下,能够预测流域非点源污染负荷,作为SWAT模型对COD模拟的补充。     

储气砂中浅层气溢出过程数值模拟研究

基于A.Nermoen的物理实验,文章进行了浅层气溢出过程数值模拟,区别于以往常用的欧拉-欧拉方法,文章采用了基于欧拉-拉格朗日方法的新型的离散粒子模拟方法MP-PIC（multiphase particle-in-cell）模型。揭示超压气体释放的机制,以及浅层气溢出过程中速度、压力的变化情况和变化规律。模拟得到的颗粒流化现象以及气泡的产生、运动和溢出现象与试验现象相一致,数模计算结果与实验资料两者相关度为0.94,相关性较好。临界流化速度和压力与土层的高度呈正相关,临界流化压力与实验结果较为接近,但由于马格努斯力（magnus）等作用力未考虑,导致临界流化速度相比于实验偏低。该模型方法能处理任意尺寸分布的颗粒,适用庞大的颗粒量,紧密耦合气固间相互作用,适用性好,准确性高,为数值模拟提供了便利。     

MODFLOW在地下水水源地水质预测中的应用

利用MODFLOW对白沙河-城阳河下游水源地水质进行了研究,建立了白沙河-城阳河下游水源地的模型,对其水质进行了预测.并提出了MODFLOW在地下水水质预测中存在的问题.     

溪洛渡地下洞室群地震响应的二维及三维数值模型比较分析研究

验证了显示有限差分方法进行地震波衍射分析的可行性,并基于此方法分别建立了二维（2D）及三维（3D）数值模型,对溪洛渡地下洞室群的地震安全性进行了分析与讨论。研究表明,在唐山余震天津医院地震波作用下洞室群处于安全状态。对比2D及3D数值计算结果可以发现,2D数值模型计算效率远远高于3D数值计算模型;对于建造于完整性较好、强度较高的岩体介质中地下洞室群而言,可以采用2D数值模型粗略估算洞身部分的地震响应,而洞室端面的动力响应则必须通过建立3D模型来进行分析。     

濉河符离集段地表水污染与傍河浅层地下水相互关系的研究

本文通过对濉河符离集段地表水与傍河浅层地下水的水位、水质进行同步观测,采用相关分析的方法,对濉河符离集段地表水与傍河浅层地下水的水位、水质相互关系进行了分析.结果表明,地表水与地下水水位高度相关,傍河地下水水位与离河距离、河水水位关系表达式为:z=-5.9254-0.0003x 1.2110y,地表水与地下水水质的Cl-离子、NH3-N相关性良好.可见濉河地表水污染对傍河浅层地下水污染有着积极的影响.     

弹塑性土质边坡的ALE方法有限元分析

有限元法被广泛用于解决几何和材料非线性的问题,但标准的有限元方法难以有效解决某些材料的大变形问题和计算中的网格扭曲问题。任意拉格朗日-欧拉法（ALE法）吸取了拉格朗日和欧拉法的优点,并克服了两者的缺点,可用于解决仅用拉格朗日或欧拉有限元法所难以解决的问题。基于ALE有限元方法和弹塑性大变形基本原理,研究了岩土工程中土质边坡在自重作用下的稳定问题;计算结果不仅能直观地显示失稳时的大变形状态,并能确定较符合实际的临界滑移面形状;同时分析了含软弱夹层复杂土质边坡的稳定性。结果表明,ALE方法能有效分析土质边坡的稳定性问题,适用于岩土工程的弹塑性分析。     

水位流速耦合演算模型研究

河道防洪,水位和流速是重要的预报特征量.目前对于缺乏流量观测资料和没有稳定水位流量关系线的河道,几乎还没有实用、有效和具有通用性的水位与流速双变量预报模型.以水流质量和力的平衡方程为基础,根据因次分析方法,提出摩阻的导数表达结构,并差分形成水位流速双变量耦合演算模型.通过钱塘江、赣江和桂江3个流域中4个河段的模拟检验,取得了较好的结果,率定期和检验期的确定性系数都大于0.7.初步证明了双变量耦合演算模型结构的合理性和模拟实际河道水流的有效性.     

钱塘江河口段盐水入侵的时空变化及预测模型

杭州城市供水85%取自钱塘江河口段,取水水质在枯水大潮期都不同程度地受到盐水入侵的威胁,分析钱塘江河口盐水入侵时空变化及研制二维数值预测模型对保障城市供水安全十分必要。根据钱塘江河口段实测水文氯度资料,分析了强潮作用下盐水入侵的时空变化特征;据此构建考虑斜压作用的二维水流、盐度输移的耦合数学模型,计算格式采用守恒性较好的有限体积法;在模型验证的基础上,数值分析了径流和潮汐对钱塘江河口段盐水入侵的影响,结果表明河口段的盐水入侵明显地受径流和潮汐的影响,据此可通过增大上游新安江水库的下泄流量抑制盐水入侵上溯以减小取水口氯度及超标时间,确保用水安全。     

长江江苏段区域供水水源地水质可达性研究

采用平面水流、水质有限体积法及黎曼近似解模型,在无结构网格上对偏微分方程进行有限体积法的积分分离散,模型具备有限单元法及有限体积法两者的优点。采用同步遥感、水量、水质实测资料对模型进行了率定验证,在对长江水源地、沿江污染源调查以及岸线稳定段分析结果基础上,进行污染源概化以及确定主要研究江段。在对概化的污染源计算出在设计条件下的污染带分布图,并计算出污染带长、宽随排污量变化曲线;在上述研究基础上,分析出长江各水源地及岸线稳定段的水质变化状况。对长江江苏段各主要排污口的污染带进行了计算,并对长江江苏段区域供水水源地的水质可达性进行了研究。     

Impacts of climate change on stream flow and water quality in a drinking water source area,Northern China

Understanding the impacts of climate change on water quality and stream flow is important for management of water resources and environment. Miyun Reservoir is the only surface drinking water source in Beijing, which is currently experiencing a serious water shortage. Therefore, it is vital to identify the impacts of climate change on water quality and quantity of the Miyun Reservoir watershed. Based on long-time-series data of meteorological observation, future climate change scenarios for this study area were predicted using global climate models (GCMs), the statistical downscaling model (SDSM), and the National Climate Centre/Gothenburg University—Weather Generator (NWG). Future trends of nonpoint source pollution load were estimated and the response of nonpoint pollution to climate change was determined using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Results showed that the simulation results of SWAT model were reasonable in this study area. The comparative analysis of precipitation and air temperature simulated using the SDSM and NWG separately showed that both tools have similar results, but the former had a larger variability of simulation results than the latter. With respect to simulation variance, the NWG has certain advantages in the numerical simulation of precipitation, but the SDSM is superior in simulating precipitation and air temperature changes. The changes in future precipitation and air temperature under different climate scenarios occur basically in the same way, that is, an overall increase is estimated. Particularly, future precipitation will increase significantly as predicted. Due to the influence of climate change, discharge, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads from the study area will increase over the next 30 years by model evaluation. Compared to average value of 1961?~?1990, discharge will experience the highest increase (15%), whereas TN and TP loads will experience a smaller increase with a greater range of annual fluctuations of 2021 ~ 2050.     

Identification of temporal and spatial variations of water quality in Sanya Bay,China by three-way principal component analysis

A large data set obtained by a 1-year monthly determination of water quality from Sanya Bay, South China Sea, was treated by three-way principal component analysis aimed at exploring the spatial and temporal patterns of water quality in Sanya Bay. Tucker3 model of optimum complexity (2, 2, 1) explaining 33.18% of the data variance, allowed interpretation of the data information in three modes. The model explained spatial and temporal variation trends in terms of water quality variables during the study period. Water quality in sampling station (S2) Sanya River was mainly influenced by Sanya River, and water quality in other stations (S1, S3–S10) were mainly influenced by the waters in South China Sea. The results delineated the mouth of Sanya River as critical from pollution point of view. The dry season from October to the next April and rainy season from May to September have different influences on water quality in Sanya Bay. The information extracted by the three-way models would be very useful to regional agencies in developing a strategy to carry out scientific plans for resource use based on marine system functions.     

Small-scale watershed extended method for non-point source pollution estimation in part of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region

Non-point source (NPS) pollution has been increasingly recognized as a major contributor to the declining quality of aquatic environment in recent years. Because of the data shortage, the non-point source loads estimation in the large-scale watershed is always difficult in most developing countries. In this study, small-scale watershed extended method (SWEM) was introduced with a case study in the middle part of Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR). Small-scale watershed extended method is the method which uses physical-based models in some small typical catchments of the targeted large watershed, and then the parameters obtained from those small catchments are extended to the surrounding area until the non-point source pollution loads in the entire watershed or region are obtained. The selected small catchments should have sufficient data. Here, the middle part of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, about 12,500?km², was chosen as the targeted region for the case study. In this region, considering the data availability, Xiaojiang River was screened as a typical watershed and was simulated with Soil and Water Assessment Tool model through accurate parameter calibration and validation. And then the parameter group obtained in Xiaojiang River Watershed was extended to the entire study area to quantify the total non-point source pollution loads. After which, the spatio-temporal characteristics of the non-point source pollution in the middle part of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region were analyzed, as well as the pollution from each tributary and different under layer surface conditions. The small-scale watershed extended method provides a practical approach for non-point source pollution loads estimation in the large-scale watershed or region.     

珠江三角洲陆源污染和香港水域排污对伶仃洋的影响

采用河网区非稳态水量数学模型,计算珠江东四口门1985-1995年的入海水量(净泄流量);在此基础上,利用1985-1995年在珠江东四口门每年至少3次(丰、平、枯)的实测水质资料(COD_Mn、BOD₅、无机氮、水溶性磷酸盐、石油类等),计算1985-1995年间每年丰、平、枯三季从东四口门下泄到伶仃洋的污染物总量。利用经率定、验证的伶仃洋近海区二维非稳态水量、水质数学模型对珠江三角洲陆源污染通过东四口门下泄的污染物量、陆源污染物以及香港水域排污对伶仃洋水域的影响进行了研究。