An Incursion of Off-Equatorial Subsurface Cold Water and Its Role in Triggering the “Double Dip” La Nia Event of 2011

Based on Global Ocean Data Assimilation System(GODAS) and NCEP reanalysis data, atmospheric and oceanic processes possibly responsible for the onset of the 2011/12 La Nia event, which followed the 2010/11 La Nia even—referred to as a "double dip" La Nia—are investigated. The key mechanisms involved in activating the 2011/12 La Nia are illustrated by these datasets. Results show that neutral conditions were already evident in the equatorial eastern Pacific during the decaying phase of the 2010/11 La Nia. However, isothermal analyses show obviously cold water still persisting at the surface and at subsurface depths in off-equatorial regions throughout early 2011, being most pronounced in the tropical South Pacific. The negative SST anomalies in the tropical South Pacific acted to strengthen a southern wind across the equator. The subsurface cold water in the tropical South Pacific then spread northward and broke into the equatorial region at the thermocline depth. This incursion process of off-equatorial subsurface cold water successfully interrupted the eastern propagation of warm water along the equator, which had previously accumulated at subsurface depths in the warm pool during the 2010/11 La Nia event. Furthermore, the incursion process strengthened as a result of the off-equatorial effects, mostly in the tropical South Pacific. The negative SST anomalies then reappeared in the central basin in summer 2011, and acted to trigger local coupled air–sea interactions to produce atmospheric–oceanic anomalies that developed and evolved with the second cooling in the fall of 2011.     

Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins

We analyze the local and remote impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the Amazon and La Plata basins of South America (SA) in an ensemble of four 21st century projections (1970–2100, RCP8.5 scenario) with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by the HadGEM, GFDL and MPI global climate models (GCMs) over the SA CORDEX domain. Two RegCM4 configurations are used, one employing the CLM land surface and the Emanuel convective schemes, and one using the BATS land surface and Grell (over land) convection schemes. First, we find considerable sensitivity of the precipitation change signal to both the driving GCM and the RegCM4 physics schemes (with the latter even greater than the first), highlighting the pronounced uncertainty of regional projections over the region. However, some improvements in the simulation of the annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and La Plata basins is found when using RegCM4, and some consistent change signals across the experiments are found. One is a tendency towards an extension of the dry season over central SA deriving from a late onset and an early retreat of the SA monsoon. The second is a dipolar response consisting of reduced precipitation over the broad Amazon and Central Brazil region and increased precipitation over the La Plata basin and central Argentina. An analysis of the relative influence on the change signal of local soil-moisture feedbacks and remote effects of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the Niño 3.4 region indicates that the former is prevalent over the Amazon basin while the latter dominates over the La Plata Basin. Also, the soil moisture feedback has a larger role in RegCM4 than in the GCMs.     

Uncertainty assessments of climate change projections over South America

This paper assesses the uncertainties involved in the projections of seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over South America in the twenty-first century. Climate simulations generated by 24 general circulation models are weighted according to the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) approach. The results show that the REA mean temperature change is slightly smaller over South America compared to the simple ensemble mean. Higher reliability in the temperature projections is found over the La Plata basin, and a larger uncertainty range is located in the Amazon. A temperature increase exceeding 2 °C is found to have a very likely (>90 %) probability of occurrence for the entire South American continent in all seasons, and a more likely than not (>50 %) probability of exceeding 4 °C by the end of this century is found over northwest South America, the Amazon Basin, and Northeast Brazil. For precipitation, the projected changes have the same magnitude as the uncertainty range and are comparable to natural variability.     

Glacial/interglacial changes in the East Australian current

The East Australian Current (EAC) is the western boundary current of the south Pacific gyre transporting warm tropical waters to higher southern latitudes. Recent modelling shows that the partial separation of the EAC (~32°S) and the coupled formation of the Tasman Front (~34°S) are caused by a steep gradient in the zonally integrated wind stress curl. Analysis of oxygen isotope ratios (δ¹⁸O) in the planktonic foraminifer, Globigerinoides ruber, from sediment cores from the Coral Sea and Tasman Sea indicates that the EAC separation shifted northward to between 23 and 26°S during the last glacial. We suggest these results indicate a significant change in the Pacific wind stress curl during the glacial. Given recent evidence for El Niño-like conditions in the Pacific during the last glacial, with a reduction in the east–west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we suggest that weaker trade winds combined with more northerly, stronger westerlies were associated with a change to the wind stress curl, which repositioned the EAC separation and Tasman Front. In contrast, by ~11 ka BP, the EAC separation was forced south of 26°S. This southward shift was synchronous with a rapid warming of tropical SSTs, and the onset of a La Niña-like SST configuration across the tropical Pacific. It appears that the south Pacific trade winds strengthened accordingly, causing the EAC to readjust its flow. This readjustment of the EAC marks the onset of modern surface-ocean circulation in the southwest Pacific, but the present EAC transport was only achieved in the late Holocene, after 5 ka BP.     

Spatial and temporal variability of the frequency of extreme daily rainfall regime in the La Plata Basin during the 20th century

We analyzed trends, interdecadal variability, and the quantification of the changes in the frequency of daily rainfall for two thresholds: 0.1 mm and percentile 75th, using high quality daily series from 52 stations in the La Plata Basin (LPB). We observed increases in the annual frequencies in spatially coherent areas. This coherence was more marked in austral summer, autumn, and spring, during which the greatest increases occurred in southern Brazil, especially during extreme events. In winter, the low and middle basins of the Río Uruguay and Río Paraná showed negative trends, some of which were significant. Interdecadal variability is well defined in the region with more pronounced positive jumps west of the basin between 1950 and 2000. This variability was particularly more marked during periods of extreme rainfall in summer, autumn, and spring, unlike in winter when extreme daily rainfall in the lower Rio Paraná basin decreased by up to 60%. The changes in the past century during extreme rainfall produced modifications in the annual rainfall cycle. The annual cycle of both indices was broader during the last period which is mainly explained by the strong decreases in winter.     

南半球冷空气入侵与热带气旋的形成

文中采用NCAR/PSU研制的非静力中尺度模式MM 5 ,研究了南半球冷空气入侵在热带气旋形成中的作用。初始场为纬向平均场 ,不含任何扰动 ,但为热带气旋的发生提供了基本条件 ;通过改变设在赤道的南边界条件 ,设计系列数值试验反映南半球不同强度冷空气的入侵。数值试验结果表明 :南半球冷空气侵袭后 ,在菲律宾以东洋面上形成热带气旋 ;没有冷空气入侵时 ,只有扰动产生 ,没有热带气旋形成。在对流不稳定的背景场中 ,即使没有冷空气入侵 ,低层小尺度辐合引起强上升运动 ,产生的非绝热加热 ,在热带洋面上也能形成扰动。但是非绝热加热使得稳定度增加 ,没有低层强辐合的支持 ,对流不能持续 ,扰动不能发展成为热带气旋。南半球冷空气的入侵 ,一方面气温降低 ,使得中低层层结稳定度降低 ;另一方面 ,冷空气形成向北的气压梯度 ,在低纬度产生南风 ,导致低层强辐合。稳定度因子和低层辐合的共同作用 ,驱动深厚的垂直环流 ,产生十分显著的非绝热加热 ,形成了暖心的热带气旋。上述研究结果一定程度上肯定了存有疑义的冷空气学说     

Large-scale circulation patterns and related rainfall in the Amazon Basin: a neuronal networks approach

This study describes the main circulation patterns (CP) in the Amazonian Basin over the 1975–2002 period and their relationship with rainfall variability. CPs in the Amazonian Basin have been computed for each season from the ERA-40 daily 850?hPa winds using an approach combining artificial neural network (Self Organizing Maps) and Hierarchical Ascendant Classification. A 6 to 8 cluster solutions (depending on the season considered) is shown to yield an integrated view of the complex regional circulation variability. For austral fall, winter and spring the temporal evolution between the different CPs shows a clear tendency to describe a cycle, with southern wind anomalies and their convergence with the trade winds progressing northward from the La Plata Basin to the Amazon Basin. This sequence is strongly related to eastward moving extra tropical perturbations and their incursion toward low latitude that modulate the geopotential and winds over South America and its adjoining oceans. During Austral summer, CPs are less spatially and temporally organized compared to other seasons, principally due to weaker extra tropical perturbations and more frequent shallow low situations. Each of these CPs is shown to be associated with coherent northward moving regional rainfall patterns (both in in situ data and ERA-40 reanalysis) and convective activity. However, our results reveals that precipitation variability is better reproduced by ERA-40 in the southern part of the Amazonian Basin than in the northern part, where rainfall variability is likely to be more constrained by local and subdaily processes (e.g. squall lines) that could be misrepresented in the reanalysis dataset. This analysis clearly illustrates the existing connections between the southern and northern part of the Amazonian Basin in terms of regional circulation/rainfall patterns. The identification of these CPs provide useful information to understand local rainfall variability and could hence be used to better understand the influence of these CPs on the hydrological variability in the Amazonian Basin.     

Impact of cold air surges on rainfall variability in the Sahel and wet African tropics: a multi-scale analysis

Satellite-derived rainfall estimates and the ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to better understand cold air surge/precipitation interactions and to identify the implications for rainfall variability in the Sahel and tropical Africa on synoptic to seasonal timescales. At the synoptic timescale, cold air surges are associated with cold conditions over the eastern Sahara throughout the year due to the eastward passage of surface low pressure systems over the Mediterranean and the subsequent ridging over northern Africa. Rainfall decreases over central and eastern Africa approximately 4–5 days after the cold air first arrives in northeastern Africa. These precipitation anomalies persist for 4 or more days. At the seasonal timescale, a significant relationship between eastern Saharan low-level temperatures and rainfall in the Sahel and tropical Africa is identified, with colder conditions associated with reduced convection on the northern flank of the primary convergence zone, and vice versa. During boreal winter, the anomalous rainfall occurs over tropical Africa (0°N–8°N). During the summer, rainfall anomalies associated with cold air surges occur over the Sahel (10°N–16°N). These relationships are mediated by anomalous anticyclonic flow over northwestern Africa and western Europe. The analysis shows that cold air surges are significantly associated with summertime cooling over the Sahara, but less so during the winter.     

与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜相联系的中国南方冬季降水的年代际异常特征

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析大气环流资料、哈得来中心海温资料、中国700多站降水资料以及全球格点降水资料,详细分析了中国南方冬季降水异常的特征,并揭示了其所对应的欧亚大气环流和东亚冬季风异常与ENSO事件的联系,以及ENSO暖/冷位相对其影响的非对称性。研究进一步证明了厄尔尼诺是导致中国南方冬季降水偏多的重要外强迫因子,并指出拉尼娜对中国南方冬季降水的影响表现出明显的年代际变化特征。1980年之前的拉尼娜年冬季,东亚冬季风显著偏强,东亚大槽偏深,西北太平洋副热带高压偏弱偏东,中国南方受一致偏北风影响,气温偏低,降水偏少,多表现为冷干的气候特征。但1980年之后的拉尼娜年冬季,东亚大槽偏弱,印缅槽偏强,同时在菲律宾以西激发出异常气旋性环流,使得异常偏东风控制中国南方,有利于热带水汽输送增强,因此降水偏多。同时,1980年之后的拉尼娜事件还使得东亚副热带西风急流偏强偏北,中国南方处于急流入口区的右侧,通过二级环流使得中国南方上空的上升运动偏强,有利于降水偏多。因此,1980年之后的拉尼娜年冬季,中国南方易表现出冷湿的气候特征,有时也容易发生低温雨雪冰冻灾害。进一步分析表明,1980年以后拉尼娜成熟期海温异常空间分布型的变化,以及北半球大气环流的年代际变化可能是导致拉尼娜对东亚大气环流的影响在1980年之后发生变化的重要原因。     

Decadal Anomalies of Winter Precipitation over Southern China in Association with El Nio and La Nia

Using multiple datasets, this paper analyzes the characteristics of winter precipitation over southern China and its association with warm and cold phases of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation during 1948 2011. The study proves that E1 Nifio is an important external forcing factor resulting in above-normal winter precipitation in southern China. The study also reveals that the impact ofLa Nifia on the winter precipitation in southern China has a decadal variability. During the winter of La Nifia before 1980, the East Asian winter monsoon is stronger than normal with a deeper trough over East Asia, and the western Pacific subtropical high weakens with its high ridge retreating more eastward. Therefore, anomalous northerly winds dominate over southern China, leading to a cold and dry winter. During La Nifia winter after 1980, however, the East Asian trough is weaker than normal, unfavorable for the southward invasion of the winter monsoon. The India-Burma trough is intensified, and the anomalous low-level cyclone excited by La Nifia is located to the west of the Philippines. Therefore, anomalous easterly winds prevail over southern China, which increases moisture flux from the tropical oceans to southern China. Meanwhile, La Nifia after 1980 may lead to an enhanced and more northward subtropical westerly jet over East Asia in winter. Since southern China is rightly located on the right side of the jet entrance region, anomalous ascending motion dominates there through the secondary vertical circulation, favoring more winter precipitation in southern China. Therefore, a cold and wet winter, sometimes with snowy and icy weathers, would occur in southern China during La Nifia winter after 1980. Further analyses indicate that the change in the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature anomaly during the La Nifia mature phase, as well as the decadal variation of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, would be the important reasons for the decadal variability of the La Nifia impact on the atmospheric circulation in East Asia and winter precipitation over southern China after 1980.     

Moisture source for the Amazon Basin: a study of contrasting years

The regions where the divergence of vertically integrated water vapor flux, averaged over a season or a year, is positive (negative) are sources (sinks) of moisture for the atmosphere. An aerial river is defined as a stream of strong water vapor flux connecting a source and a sink. Moisture flux, its divergence, and sources and sinks over the tropics of South and Central America and the adjoining Atlantic Ocean are obtained for dry years and for wet years in the Amazon Basin. Results show that the Amazon Basin is a sink region for atmospheric moisture in all seasons and that there are two source regions for the moisture in the basin, one situated in the South Atlantic and the other in the North Atlantic, both located equator-ward of the respective subtropical high-pressure centers. The convergence of moisture increases over the Amazon Basin in austral summer, and at the same time it decreases in the Pacific and Atlantic ITCZs. Box model calculations reveal that the wet years, on the average, present about 55 % more moisture convergence than the dry years in the Amazon Basin. A reduction in the moisture inflow across the eastern and northern boundaries of the basin (at 45°W and at the Equator, respectively) and an increase in the outflow across the southern boundary (at 15°S) lead to dry conditions. The annual mean contribution of moisture convergence to the precipitation over the Amazon Basin is estimated to be 70 %. In the dry years, it lowers to around 50 %. The net convergence of water vapor flux over the basin is a good indicator of the wet or dry condition.     

The Northward Shift of Climatic Belts in China During the Last 50 Years and the Corresponding Seasonal Responses

Along the meridian of 105°E, the Chinese region are divided into two parts, east and west. The results show that in the east part of China the temperate extratropical belt, the warm extratropical belt,and the northern subtropical belt shift northward significantly, whereas the middle subtropical belt and the southern subtropical belt have less or no change. As for the northern subtropical belt, the maximal northward shift can reach 3.7 degrees of latitude. As for the warm extratropical belt, along the meridian of 120°-125°E, the maximal northward shift can reach 3-4 degrees. In the west part of China, each climatic belt changes little. Only in the Xinjiang area are the significant northward shifts. Correspondingly, it is found that in the last 50 years the traditional seasons have changed. For Beijing, Hailar, and Lanzhou, in general, summer becomes longer and winter shorter over the last 50 years. Summer begins early and ends late with respect to early 1950s. Contrary to the summer, winter begins la     

1999年夏季长江及以南地区洪涝的大尺度环流成因初探

通过对比分析，探讨了1999年夏季长江及以南地区洪涝灾害的环流成因，指出1999年处在La Nina年，西太平洋副热带高压偏弱，偏北且异常偏东；南海夏季风前期偏强，后期偏弱；带对流层上部南亚高压脊和洋中槽位置偏南；对流层下部长江下游至江南受气旋性异常环流影响，形成异常加强的水输送圈；夏季亚洲中纬度大陆高压维持，中低纬度环流系统的共同作用造成长江中下游及以南地区的洪涝灾害。     

Characteristics and spatio-temporal variability of the Amazon River Basin Water Budget

The spatio-temporal variations of the water budget components in the Amazon region are investigated by using a combination of hydrometeorological observations and moisture fluxes derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, for the period 1970–1999. The key new finding of this study identifies the major differences in the water balance characteristics and variability between the northern and southern parts of the basin. Our results show that there is a seasonality and interannual variability of the water balance that varies across the basin. At interannual time scales, anomalies in the water balance components in the northern Amazon region show relatively stronger links with tropical Pacific interannual variability. Over the entire region, precipitation exceeds evaporation and the basin acts as a sink of moisture (P>E). However, on some occasions the basin can act as a source for moisture (P<E) under extreme conditions, such as those related to deficient rainfall in northern Amazonia during the strong El Niño of 1983. Our estimates of the Amazon regions water balance do not show a closure of the budget, with an average imbalance of almost 50%, suggesting that some of the moisture that converges in the Amazon region is not accounted for. The imbalance is larger over the southern Amazon region than over the northern region, and it also exhibits interannual variability. Large uncertainties are detected in the evaporation and moisture-convergence fields derived from the reanalyses, and in the case of evaporation it can be as large as 10–20% when compared with the few field observations across the basin. Observed precipitation fields derived from station data and from grid-box products also show some discrepancies due to sampling problems and interpolation techniques. The streamflow observed at the mouth of the river is obtained after corrections on the series observed taken at a gauging site almost 200 km inland. However, variability in the evaporation, moisture convergence, and observed rainfall and runoff matches quite well.     

Local and remote impacts of a tropical Atlantic salinity anomaly

The climatic impacts of an enhanced evaporation prescribed during 50 years in the tropical Atlantic are investigated in a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Locally, the salinity increase leads to a rapid deepening and cooling of the surface mixed layer. This induces a deepening of the equatorial undercurrent and an intensification of the south equatorial current. A remote atmospheric response to the tropical Atlantic perturbation is detected in the North Atlantic sector after ten years. It has the form of a robust wave-like tropospheric perturbation seemingly excited by the weakening of atmospheric deep convection over the Amazonian basin. Meanwhile, the salt anomaly is carried northward by the mean oceanic circulation. It is traced up to the convection sites and then on its return path at depth towards lower latitudes. Consistent with the density increase, deep convection is enhanced after the arrival of the salt anomaly and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) intensifies about 20 years after the beginning of the perturbation. The adjustment of the tropical Atlantic to the AMOC intensification then modifies its initial response to the freshwater forcing, leading to a weaker cooling in the northern tropical Atlantic than in the southern tropical Atlantic, a slight northward shift of the tropical Atlantic precipitation pattern and an intensification of the North Brazil current. On the other hand, no significant anomalous precipitations are found in the Pacific. The initial remote atmospheric response is also modulated, by an NAO-like response to the AMOC intensification.     

Effects of intraseasonal oscillation on the anomalous East Asian summer monsoon during 1999

The 1999 East Asian summer monsoon was very unusual for its weak northward advance and remarkably anomalous climate conditions. The monsoonal southwesterly airflow and related rain belt in East Asia were blocked south of the Yangtze River Valley. The monsoonal airflow and major moisture transport conduct shifted eastward and turned northward to Japan from the tropical western Pacific rather than to East China from the South China Sea （SCS） as in normal years. Severe and prolonged drought occurred over extensive areas of North China and heavy precipitation in South China and Japan. The investigation on the possible intrinsic mechanisms related to such an anomalous monsoon year has shown that the unique behavior of intraseasonal oscillation may play an essential role during this process. During this year, the northward propagation of 30-60-day anomalous low-level cyclone/anticyclone collapsed in the region around 20°N and did not extend beyond the latitudes of the Yangtze River basin due to the barrier of strong cold air intrusion from the mid-latitudes. The southwesterly moisture flux on the northwestern flank of the anticyclonic moisture transport system in the western North Pacific, which was regulated by the northward shift of 30-60-day cyclonic/anticyclonic moisture transport, also did not reach the region north of 30°N as well. Under this circumstance, the weak northward advance of the monsoon westerlies and associated northward moisture transport could not arrive in North China and led to the severe droughts there in 1999. The SCS and South China were mostly affected by the airflow in the southern and northern flanks of the same 30-60-day cyclones or anticyclones, respectively, and thus controlled by the nearly reverse zonal wind and moisture convergent/divergent conditions. The rainfall in the SCS and South China showed out-of-phase oscillation through the transient local Hadley circulation, with the rainfall maximum occurring in the SCS （South China） when the 30-60-day anticyclone （cyclone） r     

Simulation of rainfall anomalies leading to the 2005 drought in Amazonia using the CLARIS LPB regional climate models

The meteorological characteristics of the drought of 2005 in Amazonia, one of the most severe in the last 100 years were assessed using a suite of seven regional models obtained from the CLARIS LPB project. The models were forced with the ERA-Interim reanalyses as boundary conditions. We used a combination of rainfall and temperature observations and the low-level circulation and evaporation fields from the reanalyses to determine the climatic and meteorological characteristics of this particular drought. The models reproduce in some degree the observed annual cycle of precipitation and the geographical distribution of negative rainfall anomalies during the summer months of 2005. With respect to the evolution of rainfall during 2004–2006, some of the models were able to simulate the negative rainfall departures during early summer of 2005 (December 2004 to February 2005). The interannual variability of rainfall anomalies for both austral summer and fall over northern and southern Amazonia show a large spread among models, with some of them capable of reproducing the 2005 observed negative rainfall departures (four out of seven models in southern Amazonia during DJF). In comparison, all models simulated the observed southern Amazonia negative rainfall and positive air temperature anomalies during the El Nino-related drought in 1998. The spatial structure of the simulated rainfall and temperature anomalies in DJF and MAM 2005 shows biases that are different among models. While some models simulated the observed negative rainfall anomalies over parts of western and southern Amazonia during DJF, others simulated positive rainfall departures over central Amazonia. The simulated circulation patterns indicate a weaker northeasterly flow from the tropical North Atlantic into Amazonia, and reduced flows from southern Amazonia into the La Plata basin in DJF, which is consistent with observations. In general, we can say that in some degree the regional models are able to capture the response to the forcing from the tropical Atlantic during the drought of 2005 in Amazonia. Moreover, extreme climatic conditions in response to anomalous low-level circulation features are also well captured, since the boundary conditions come from reanalysis and the models are largely constrained by the information provided at the boundaries. The analysis of the 2005 drought suggests that when the forcing leading to extreme anomalous conditions is associated with both local and non-local mechanisms (soil moisture feedbacks and remote SST anomalies, respectively) the models are not fully capable of representing these feedbacks and hence, the associated anomalies. The reason may be a deficient reproduction of the land–atmosphere interactions.     

Climatology of water excesses and shortages in the La Plata Basin

This study presents a multitemporal climatology of water excess and shortage during the 20th century in the La Plata Basin. The climatology is based on 0.5^o?×?0.5^o grid across the region. We transform monthly precipitation series for each point into index series at different time scales using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). A month is under water excess (shortage) conditions at different time scales (i?=?6, 9, 12, and 18 months), when SPI[i](j)?>?1.5 (SPI[i](j)?<?1.5), where j is the current month. Trends in precipitation were determined using mean regional series of average values over the entire basin. A month when more than 30% of the total basin is under water excesses (shortages) is defined as an excess (shortage) critical month. From the vulnerability point of view, we analyzed the occurrence of critical months. The number of excess critical months increase with time scale of index, and almost all the critical months occurred after 1950 as a consequence of the low-frequency precipitation pattern. That means a noticeable increase in the vulnerability to extended excesses (more than 30% of the area under water excesses) after 1950, especially over the Upper Paraná and the Uruguay basins. For shortage critical months, the behavior depends on time scales. At large time scale (18 and 12 months), almost all the shortage critical months occurred in the period 1901–1950 and only at shorter time scale (9 and 6 months), some critical months appeared after 1950. That means a noteworthy decrease in the basin vulnerability to extended water shortage after 1950 and a moderate decrease in vulnerability to generalized shortage. If we analyze the frequency and mean duration of water excess and shortage events across the basin, we can appreciate that there is a tendency to relate higher frequency regions with regions with lower mean duration events, and conversely.     

Determining the Oxygen Isotope Composition of Evapotranspiration Using Eddy Covariance

Impacts of different terrain configurations on the general behaviour of idealised katabatic flows are investigated in a numerical model study. Various simplified terrain models are applied to unveil modifications of the dynamics of nocturnal cold drainage of air as a result of predefined topographical structures. The generated idealised terrain models encompass all major topographical elements of an area in the tropical eastern Andes of southern Ecuador and northern Peru, and the adjacent Amazon. The idealised simulations corroborate that (i) katabatic flows develop over topographical elements (slopes and valleys), that (ii) confluence of katabatic flows in a lowland basin with a concave terrainline occur, and (iii) a complex drainage flow system regime directed into such a basin can sustain the confluence despite varying slope angles and slope distances.     

Soil-precipitation feedbacks during the South American Monsoon as simulated by a regional climate model

We summarize the recent progress in regional climate modeling in South America with the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3-E), with emphasis on soil moisture processes. A series of climatological integrations using a continental scale domain nested in reanalysis data were carried out for the initial and mature stages of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) of 1993–92 and were analyzed on seasonal and monthly timescales. The role of including a spatially varying soil depth, which extends to 8 m in tropical forest, was evaluated against the standard constant soil depth of the model of about 2 m, through two five member ensemble simulations. The influence of the soil depth was relatively weak, with both beneficial and detrimental effects on the simulation of the seasonal mean rainfall. Secondly, two ensembles that differ in their initial state of soil moisture were prepared to study the influence of anomalously dry and wet soil moisture initial conditions on the intraseasonal development of the SAMS. In these simulations the austral winter soil moisture initial condition has a strong influence on wet season rainfall over feed back upon the monsoon, not only over the Amazon region but in subtropical South America as well. Finally, we calculated the soil moisture–precipitation coupling strength through comparing a ten member ensemble forced by the same space–time series of soil moisture fields with an ensemble with interactive soil moisture. Coupling strength is defined as the degree to which the prescribed boundary conditions affect some atmospheric quantity in a climate model, in this context a quantification of the fraction of atmospheric variability that can be ascribed to soil moisture anomalies. La Plata Basin appears as a region where the precipitation is partly controlled by soil moisture, especially in November and January. The continental convective monsoon regions and subtropical South America appears as a region with relatively high coupling strength during the mature phase of monsoon development.