降雨型浅层滑坡危险性预测模型

通过分析SHALSTAB和TRIGRS等浅层滑坡物理确定性模型存在的问题,提出了基于降雨入渗动态守恒的瞬态降雨入渗模型,该模型考虑了初期降雨过程、降雨历程以及饱和非饱和入渗过程,证明了SHALSTAB模型是该模型的特殊形式,并克服了TRIGRS模型参数繁多及一维入渗路径的问题.将无限边坡模型、瞬态降雨入渗模型和GIS进行耦合,研发了可用于大范围降雨型浅层滑坡危险性预测的集成系统,根据边坡的地质条件、地形参数和降雨特征即可对降雨条件下浅层滑坡的危险性进行评估.     

考虑降雨类型的基岩型浅层边坡稳定性分析方法

降雨是诱发滑坡尤其是浅层滑坡的主要因素,目前多数降雨作用下基岩型浅层边坡稳定性分析方法都是基于常降雨强度假设,忽略了降雨特性对该类边坡稳定性的影响。文章建立了常规型降雨强度-时间类型,通过控制参数统一均匀型降雨、递增型降雨、递减型降雨、峰值型降雨等类型。根据入渗理论和无限边坡模型,提出了考虑降雨类型的基岩型浅层边坡稳定性分析方法。通过编制MATLAB程序计算一边坡稳定性,结果表明:不同降雨类型对基岩型浅层边坡稳定性影响较大,具有明显的时效性。在实际边坡防治中,应考虑降雨特性对边坡稳定性的影响。     

基于Mein-Larson入渗模型的凹形边坡稳定性分析

坡面形态对边坡表面应力状态影响显著,而应力状态与边坡稳定性密切相关。以往的降雨入渗模型仅考虑直线形态的边坡,并没有考虑边坡为曲线形态的情况。将Mein-Larson入渗模型与坡形函数相结合,推导降雨作用下凹形边坡的入渗函数,结合极限平衡分析方法,提出一种凹形边坡稳定性计算模型。同时根据坡形拟合与坡形简化的思路,将实际边坡分别当作成凹形边坡和直线边坡进行研究。研究结果表明:湿润锋入渗深度与降雨时间呈线性关系,湿润锋面在不同降雨时刻下均与坡面平行。将实际边坡当作凹形边坡进行分析时,其降雨入渗规律更符合实际情况;当降雨时间为10天时,浅层斜坡模型得到的计算结果为0.95,而本文计算模型与数值模拟得到的稳定性系数分别为1.004和1.003,相对误差不超过1%。因此与以往提出的计算模型相比,该模型不仅考虑了实际边坡的坡面形态,而且具有计算简便、可靠度较高等特点。     

降雨入渗条件下非饱和土边坡稳定分析

针对降雨入渗土坡的稳定问题,建立一个考虑水力渗透系数特征曲线、土-水特征曲线以及修正的Mohr-Coulomb破坏准则的非饱和土流固耦合有限元计算模型,进行雨水入渗下非饱和土边坡渗流场和应力场耦合的数值模拟,得到非饱和土边坡变形与应力的若干重要规律。研究成果为降雨入渗条件下非饱和土边坡的稳定分析提供了基础。     

考虑降雨影响的膨胀土边坡稳定性分析简化法

基于非饱和土一维降雨入渗模型,模拟了膨胀土边坡在降雨入渗条件下的水分运移特征。通过试验,研究了膨胀土抗剪强度随含水量变化的关系,提出了一种考虑降雨入渗影响的膨胀土边坡稳定性分析的简化方法。研究表明,随降雨历时的增加,边坡的安全系数逐渐变小,边坡最危险滑动面有向浅层发展的趋势。这种方法既能避免繁杂的基质吸力测量,同时能够考虑膨胀土的非饱和性,可以基本满足一般中小型工程设计的需要。      

降雨过程中边坡临界滑动场

降雨入渗过程中孔隙水压力的升高与基质吸力的降低引起边坡稳定性的下降,是导致边坡滑塌的主要诱导因素。利用饱和-非饱和渗流有限元计算得到的孔隙水压力场,基于Fredlund提出的非饱和土抗剪强度理论,对边坡临界滑动场进行改进,提出可以考虑降雨过程的边坡临界滑动场数值模拟方法,能够方便、快速地计算出边坡局部、整体安全系数和相对应的临界滑动面在降雨过程中的变化历程。将该法用于一个典型均质边坡和一个非均质边坡在降雨过程中的稳定性计算,分析降雨持续时间、降雨强度和非饱和强度参数取值等因素对边坡稳定性的影响,并将计算结果与其他方法进行比较,结果表明临界滑动场方法能搜索任意形状最危险滑面,计算的安全系数合理。     

基于降雨作用下滑面抗剪强度动态变化的层状边坡稳定性评价

降雨入渗对边坡稳定性具有重要影响。鉴于层状边坡在自然情况中广泛存在,因此,开展在降雨情况下的多层状边坡入渗模型及其稳定性研究具有重要意义。考虑各层土体的渗透性能差异,利用约束函数求得各层土体的有效渗透系数,并基于Green-Ampt模型建立层状边坡入渗模型。结合非饱和土强度经验公式,推导了考虑滑面抗剪强度动态变化的层状边坡稳定性方程。最后,对深圳某边坡在不同降雨强度和降雨历时下的稳定性系数进行了计算并对结果进行了分析。结果表明,当湿润锋未达到滑面处时,边坡稳定性系数与降雨历时和降雨强度呈线性关系。考虑边坡入渗能力,提出了降雨入渗临界时间概念。在任意降雨强度下,当降雨历时小于该时间时,边坡均不会失稳。本研究可以用于指导降雨情况下层状边坡的稳定性评价。     

强降雨条件下基岩型层状边坡入渗模型及稳定性研究

强降雨作用下基岩型层状边坡易发生失稳破坏,给人们生命财产造成重大损失。为探索基岩型层状边坡的降雨入渗过程,以Green-Ampt入渗模型为基础,考虑了边坡几何特征及饱和带渗流作用,得到了边坡不同入渗阶段入渗率和湿润峰深度的计算式,建立了适用于基岩型层状边坡的降雨入渗计算模型;在分析基岩型层状边坡稳定性时,考虑了饱和带的渗流作用,联合降雨入渗模型与极限平衡法,分析了基岩面与湿润峰面稳定性的变化规律,得到了计算基岩型层状边坡安全系数的解析表达式;结果表明,该模型的计算与试验结果具有一致性。利用该计算模型与传统计算方法对张家湾滑坡进行了强度为30 mm/h的降雨入渗与稳定性分析,得到了不同计算方法下张家湾滑坡湿润峰深度及安全系数随降雨历时增加而发生的变化规律,结果表明该计算模型在分析基岩型层状边坡稳定性时优于传统分析方法。     

降雨条件下浅层滑坡稳定性探讨

降雨条件下浅层滑坡是一种常见、多发的地质灾害现象,为了解边坡稳定性随降雨入渗过程的变化情况,以Green-Ampt入渗模型为基础,并考虑了动水压力的作用,建立了降雨入渗条件下浅层滑坡的概念模型,分别推导了降雨前有、无地下水位条件下的边坡安全系数与降雨时间的关系表达式。从分析结果中可以看出,对于这两种情况下边坡稳定性发生突变的主要原因归结于：前者为在湿润锋与地下水位面接触的短时间内,滑带处的孔隙水压力迅速增高;后者为滑带在浸水饱和情况下,岩土体的强度迅速降低。在此基础上,根据降雨过程中边坡是否达到饱和,提出边坡饱和临界时间的概念,考虑了初始降雨强度小于土壤入渗能力的情况。这个时间可以作为一个参数指标用于浅层滑坡的预警。     

降雨条件下非饱和土滑坡渗流变形模拟分析及工程治理

以G104国道丁山服务区西侧滑坡为研究对象,根据勘查和室内试验结果,结合反演方法确定滑坡滑带土强度参数。设定了降雨入渗模型、建立滑坡体数值模型,运用非饱和土渗流理论对边坡进行渗流场和应力场耦合分析。通过有限元方法模拟降雨96h,对孔隙水、渗流、位移和边坡稳定性分析。结果表明:降雨过程中,孔隙水压力与坡体位移有明显相关性,坡顶X分量位移较大,坡体的浅层、坡体上部孔压及位移变化较大,因而容易引发后缘拉裂缝、浅层滑塌,降雨后期坡体持续蠕移,引发边缘剪切裂缝,进而诱发整体性滑坡。削坡和挡墙能够提高坡体稳定性,格构、绿化、截排水工程能够减小降雨对坡顶稳定性的影响。     

改进的斜坡降雨入渗与坡面径流耦合算法研究

大气降雨时坡面径流与非饱和入渗的耦合计算,是降雨诱发滑坡及水土流失等研究中的重大问题之一。从坡面径流和降雨入渗控制方程着手,建立了基于有限元方法的耦合方程求解模型,实现了耦合问题的直接求解。该耦合计算模型与求解方法避免了坡面径流和降雨入渗间的迭代计算,也不需计算两者间的流量交换,较大程度地提高了计算效率和计算精度。算例表明,该方法正确可行,计算效率高,稳定性好。     

Rainfall infiltration: infinite slope model for landslides triggering by rainstorm

Shallow slope failure due to heavy rainfall during rainstorm and typhoon is common in mountain areas. Among the models used for analyzing the slope stability, the rainwater infiltration model integrated with slope stability model can be an effective way to evaluate the stability of slopes during rainstorm. This paper will propose an integrated Green–Ampt infiltration model and infinite slope stability model for the analysis of shallow type slope failure. To verify the suitability of the proposed model, seven landslide cases occurred in Italy and Hong Kong are adopted in this paper. The results indicate that the proposed model can be used to distinguish failed and not-yet failed slopes. In addition, the proposed model can be used as the first approximation for estimating the occurrence time of a rainfall-induced shallow landslide and its depth of sliding.     

Influence of the spatial variability of shear strength parameters on rainfall induced landslides: a case study of sandstone slope in Japan

Rainfall-induced landslides frequently occur in humid temperate regions worldwide. Research activity in understanding the mechanism of rainfall-induced landslides has recently focused on the probability of slope failure involving non-homogeneous soil profiles. This paper presents probabilistic analyses to assess the stability of unsaturated soil slope under rainfall. The influence of the spatial variability of shear strength parameters on the probability of rainfall-induced slope failure is conducted by means of a series of seepage and stability analyses of an infinite slope based on random fields. A case study of shallow failure located on sandstone slopes in Japan is used to verify the analysis framework. The results confirm that a probabilistic analysis can be efficiently used to qualify various locations of failure surface caused by spatial variability of soil shear strength for a shallow infinite slope failure due to rainfall.     

Modeling of layered infinite slope failure triggered by rainfall

The infinite slope is typically regarded as composed of a single-layered soil with a uniform property in various physical-based models used for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslides. This study extends the physical-based model to consider the layered infinite slope to examine the importance of soil layer distribution for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. Hypothetical scenarios of infinite slope composed of soil layers with different thicknesses and parameters are employed to conduct this examination. The results show that pressure heads caused by rainfall infiltration are strongly related to soil layer distribution. This shows the significant influence of soil layer distribution in assessing infinite slope stability. Failure of a layered infinite slope does not necessarily occur at the impervious bottom of the hillslope soil, but may also occur at the interface between two soil layers. This result shows that a neglect of soil layer distribution could misestimate failure depth. Hence, soil layer distribution must be considered to reliably analyze infinite slope failure induced by rainfall.     

强降雨条件下气压对滑坡延时效应研究

在强降雨入渗条件下,浅层边坡土体中的气体可能被封闭,孔隙气压力在封闭条件下随着雨水的入渗不断增加。结合湿润峰面受力分析对封闭气体压力的物理意义进行了说明,通过考虑简化的气阻入渗模型,对比经典的Green-Ampt入渗模型,研究了气压对入渗率和下移的湿润峰的影响。应用该入渗模型,对下部为基岩的大面积浅层边坡雨水入渗过程以及边坡稳定性进行分析。研究表明,封闭气压显著降低了边坡体内雨水的入渗率,对安全系数的降低具有明显的延时性,这进一步揭示了部分地区雨后滑坡频繁发生的重要原因。因此,考虑封闭气压对大面积边坡降雨安全预报具有重要意义     

A distributed hydrological–geotechnical model using satellite-derived rainfall estimates for shallow landslide prediction system at a catchment scale

This paper describes the potential applicability of a hydrological–geotechnical modeling system using satellite-based rainfall estimates for a shallow landslide prediction system. The physically based distributed model has been developed by integrating a grid-based distributed kinematic wave rainfall-runoff model with an infinite slope stability approach. The model was forced by the satellite-based near real-time half-hourly CMORPH global rainfall product prepared by NOAA-CPC. The method combines the following two model outputs necessary for identifying where and when shallow landslides may potentially occur in the catchment: (1) the time-invariant spatial distribution of areas susceptible to slope instability map, for which the river catchment is divided into stability classes according to the critical relative soil saturation; this output is designed to portray the effect of quasi-static land surface variables and soil strength properties on slope instability and (2) a produced map linked with spatiotemporally varying hydrologic properties to provide a time-varying estimate of susceptibility to slope movement in response to rainfall. The proposed hydrological model predicts the dynamic of soil saturation in each grid element. The stored water in each grid element is then used for updating the relative soil saturation and analyzing the slope stability. A grid of slope is defined to be unstable when the relative soil saturation becomes higher than the critical level and is the basis for issuing a shallow landslide warning. The method was applied to past landslides in the upper Citarum River catchment (2,310 km²), Indonesia; the resulting time-invariant landslide susceptibility map shows good agreement with the spatial patterns of documented historical landslides (1985–2008). Application of the model to two recent shallow landslides shows that the model can successfully predict the effect of rainfall movement and intensity on the spatiotemporal dynamic of hydrological variables that trigger shallow landslides. Several hours before the landslides, the model predicted unstable conditions in some grids over and near the grids at which the actual shallow landslides occurred. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential applicability of the modeling system for shallow landslide disaster predictions and warnings.     

强降雨下基于Green-Ampt模型的边坡稳定性分析

降雨入渗分析方法直接影响降雨型滑坡的预测与防范。Green-Ampt（GA）模型物理意义明确、参数较少,在降雨型滑坡分析中逐渐得到了重视,但该方法忽略了湿润层非饱和层的存在以及饱和层渗流而影响计算精度。针对以上不足,基于GA模型,建立了适用于边坡并且能综合考虑湿润层土体含水率分布情况与饱和层内平行于坡面渗流作用的降雨入渗分析（LSGA）模型,并提出了该模型下边坡稳定性系数表达式。结果表明：对于不考虑分层的无限长边坡,LSGA模型可简化为GA模型,说明GA模型是LSGA模型的一个特例;与LSGA模型相比,GA模型在失稳深度和时间上有较大延缓;饱和层渗流作用对湿润层特性影响较小,对边坡稳定性影响较大;相反,坡体长度方向尺寸效应则对湿润层特性影响明显,而对边坡稳定性影响较小;利用LSGA模型和稳定性评价方法得到的结果与模型试验揭示的现象基本吻合,证明了该方法有较好的精确性和可靠性。     

Rainfall-induced landslides by deficit field matric suction in unsaturated soil slopes

Landslides are mainly triggered by decrease in the matric suction with deepening the wetting band by rainfall infiltrations. This paper reports rainfall-induced landslides in partially saturated soil slopes through a field study. A comprehensive analysis on Umyeonsan (Mt.) landslides in 2011 was highlighted. The incident involves the collapse of unsaturated soil slopes under extreme-rainfall event. Fundamental studies on the mechanism and the cause of landslides were carried out. A number of technical findings are of interest, including the failure mechanism of a depth of soil and effect of groundwater flow, the downward movement of wetting band and the increase of groundwater level. Based on this, an integrated analysis methodology for a rainfall-induced landslide is proposed in this paper that incorporates the field matric suction for obtaining hydraulic parameters of unsaturated soil. The field matric suction is shown to govern the rate of change in the water infiltration for the landslide analysis with respect to an antecedent rainfall. Special attention was given to a one-dimensional infiltration model to determine the wetting band depth in the absence of the field matric suction. The results indicate that landslide activities were primarily dependent on rainfall infiltration, soil properties, slope geometries, vegetation, and groundwater table positions. The proposed methodology has clearly demonstrated both shallow and deep-seated landslides and shows good agreement with the results of landslide investigations.     

基于TRIGRS模型的浅层滑坡稳定性分析

采用基于网格的瞬态降雨入渗(TRIGRS)模型,以滑坡灾害频发的陕南安康市东部巴山东段白河县为研究区,探讨模型适用性及不同降雨条件下边坡稳定性空间分布规律。根据中国土壤分布图并结合已有研究,选取模拟所需的水土力学参数。将模拟所得研究区稳定性分布图与实际滑坡目录对比分析进行TRIGRS模型精度评估,分别模拟连阴雨和短时间强降雨两种降雨情景,探讨研究区边坡稳定性空间分布规律,结果表明:1)TRIGRS模型在模拟预测降雨诱发型浅层滑坡时,结合受试者特征ROC曲线进行精度评估,曲线下面积为0.752,说明此模型在白河县进行滑坡模拟时具有一定的合理性与准确性,能反应该地区滑坡灾害的空间分布特征;2)连阴雨情景模拟下,极不稳定区域主要集中在北部低山地貌区,以冷水镇和麻虎镇为主,随降雨历时增加向东部和南部增多,西部仓上镇、西营镇和双丰镇的极不稳定区域面积较少,能承受长时间连续性降雨。短时间强降雨对边坡稳定性的影响更为直接,极不稳定区域随降雨强度增大而增加,以冷水镇和麻虎镇为主要防范区域。结合地形分析,极陡峭区域边坡稳定性最差,无法承受持续性降雨和高强度降雨,较陡峭区域更易受到降雨历时和降雨强度的影响,而平缓区域则能承受长时间及高强度的降雨;3)TRIGRS模型根据不同降雨条件预测易发生滑坡灾害的区域,为滑坡实时预报警系统提供了新的可能方法。