Mechanistic Drifting Forecast Model for A Small Semi-Submersible Drifter Under Tide–Wind–Wave Conditions

Understanding the drifting motion of a small semi-submersible drifter is of vital importance regarding monitoring surface currents and the floating pollutants in coastal regions. This work addresses this issue by establishing a mechanistic drifting forecast model based on kinetic analysis. Taking tide–wind–wave into consideration, the forecast model is validated against in situ drifting experiment in the Radial Sand Ridges. Model results show good performance with respect to the measured drifting features, characterized by migrating back and forth twice a day with daily downwind displacements. Trajectory models are used to evaluate the influence of the individual hydrodynamic forcing. The tidal current is the fundamental dynamic condition in the Radial Sand Ridges and has the greatest impact on the drifting distance. However, it loses its leading position in the field of the daily displacement of the used drifter. The simulations reveal that different hydrodynamic forces dominate the daily displacement of the used drifter at different wind scales. The wave-induced mass transport has the greatest influence on the daily displacement at Beaufort wind scale 5–6; while wind drag contributes mostly at wind scale 2–4.     

南黄海辐射状沙脊成因的沉积动力学研究

自南黄海辐射状沙脊被发现，尤其是江苏省海岸带和海涂资源综合调查揭示了其全貌，并同时测得辐射状沙脊区存在辐射状潮流场(任美愕，1986)以来，对南黄海辐射状沙脊的成因，主要包括其形成的水动力条件、物质来源、形成机理与形成过程等，本领域学术界一直存在争论1)(李从先等，1979；任美锷，1986；李成治等，1981；周长振等，1981；万延森，1982；刘振夏，1983；刘振夏等，1983，1995；耿秀山等，1983；夏东兴等，1984；夏综万等，1984；杨长恕，1985；黄易畅等，1987；张光威，1991；赵松龄，1991；朱大奎等，1993；杨治家等，1995；朱玉荣等，1995，1997；张东生等，1996；李从先等，1997)。 南黄海辐射状沙脊的形成机理及形成过程是与其形成的水动力条件、物质来源紧密联系在一起的。持该区的辐射状潮流场是受海底地形与(或)局部弶港海湾形态控制而形成观点的学者，多认为辐射状潮流场形成的同时或之后会反作用于海底地形，逐渐将海底地形改造成辐射状沙脊1)(任美锷，1986；李成治等，1981；万延森，1982；张光威，1991)，并且认为辐射状沙脊的形成需要几千年的时间1)，或是一个历史过程(李成治等，1981)，或经过最近一百多年的改造而形成(万延森，1982)，或形成于距今4000年前以来(张光威，1991)。这种观点的本质在于认为辐射状沙脊的辐射状形态是由海底地形的初始辐射状形态决定的，辐射状潮流场的作用在于使具初始辐射状形态的海底地形的辐射状形式更好，即认为辐射状潮流场对辐射状沙脊辐射状形态的形成不起决定作用。认为辐射状潮流场是由东海传入黄海的前进潮波与山东半岛南部的旋转潮波相交汇而形成，并且认为辐射状潮流场有可能自全新世海侵影响本区，或自7000年前以来就一直存在(对古海岸时辐射状潮流场存在的认识只是推测，尚缺乏证据)的学者，多认为辐射状沙脊的辐射状形态是由该区潮流场的辐射状形态决定的(周长振等，1981；刘振夏,1983；夏综万等,1984；杨长恕,1985；黄易畅等，1987；朱大奎等,1993；朱玉荣等，1995，1997),即认为辐射状潮流场对辐射状沙脊的辐射状形态起决定作用。这两种观点根本对立。     

南黄海辐射沙洲区悬沙潮扩散规律数值研究

在对南黄海辐射沙洲区的潮汐、潮流特征作进一步探讨的基础上,数值模拟了该区的悬沙潮扩散。根据计算结果,分析了计算海域悬沙含量在一个半日潮过程中随潮流场的瞬时变化规律,研究了不同地点悬沙含量与潮位、潮流的关系,总结了涨、落潮平均含沙量的平面分布规律。结果表明,该区的潮流场控制着悬沙的扩散、运移和分布,进而控制着海底地形的发育,尤其是辐射沙洲北大南小不对称格架的塑造与辐射沙洲根部的加积淤高。     

海上无动力船舶漂移轨迹模型及其在“桑吉”油轮漂移模拟中的应用

无动力或破损的船舶在海上自由漂移对海上的各项生产活动是一个巨大的危险。通过对海上漂浮的船舶进行受力分析,考虑船舶的外形特征及漂浮状态,建立了海上船舶漂移轨迹模型,对船舶海面以上与以下侧向投影面积之比(面积比)、风拖曳系数、流拖曳系数等参数均进行了敏感性分析,并针对2018年1月6日爆燃的"桑吉"油轮漂移轨迹开展了模拟应用。结果表明该模型针对不同类型海上船舶的漂移轨迹有一定合理的模拟能力,船舶面积比是准确模拟漂移轨迹的一个重要参数,同时,该模型对风拖曳系数、流拖曳系数较为敏感。针对"桑吉"油轮的模拟,科氏力的作用不可忽视,考虑科氏力作用后漂移轨迹的模拟效果得到了很好的改善。     

Technical issues in modeling surface-drifter behavior on the East China Sea shelf

To investigate technical issues associated with the particle-tracking numerical models frequently used to reproduce the behavior of objects drifting in the actual ocean, the trajectories of satellite-tracked drifters released in 2003, 2004, and 2007 were reproduced using a numerical model. In particular, the wind stress driving the surface currents which carried the drifters has been computed using satellite-observed QuikSCAT/Seawinds data provided twice daily in conjunction with in-situ Ieodo-station wind data. Although it is difficult to reproduce the trajectory of a single drifter using numerical models because of the uncertainty induced by random-walk processes, the similarity between the modeled particle and observed buoy trajectories is statistically significant, except for the experiment in 2007. In general, the satellite-derived wind field modified using in situ data is likely to be able to reproduce observed drifter motion. However, it is found that the model is unable to reproduce drifter trajectories in windy 2007. The numerical modeling result demonstrates that wind-induced leeway drift prevails in drifter motion in 2007, in spite of the wind-resistant drogue attached to the drifters, and that this drift shows non-negligible spatiotemporal variability, suggesting that leeway drift is not simply proportional to wind speeds, as in previous studies have maintained.     

核电站附近海域漂流海藻的漂移路径数值模拟

研究核电站附近海域漂流海藻的漂流路径对保障核电站冷源安全具有重要意义。本研究根据辽东湾东部海域漂流海藻的分布特征,构建该海域的二维水动力和粒子追踪数值预测、预报模型,基于近年实际观测的海流和潮位数据,对水动力模型进行验证,并根据2019年5月至8月释放北斗和GPS浮标采集数据,对该海域相同工况下的海藻漂移路径进行校验,均吻合良好。同时,对该海域7月大潮期,取水口附近海域的海藻堵塞风险进行了模拟分析,得到各不同工况下,漂流海藻到达取水口定义威胁区范围内的时间。结果表明,该数值模型能够对漂流海藻的漂移路径进行准确模拟,可为科学规避或有效减轻漂流海藻对核电站冷源取水口的堵塞风险提供技术支撑。     

关于发展我国漂流浮标和锚泊浮标技术的建议

本文综述了90年代国外漂流浮标和锚泊浮标技术的发展动态,从战略发展的高度提出了研制多参数表层漂流浮标、多次往返式剖面仪、绷紧式锚泊浮标和水质监测浮标的建议,并分析了国内的需求和相应的研究基础.     

新型表层漂流浮标体设计分析

表层漂流浮标在应用于海洋调查研究时,浮标体外形对浮标通讯稳定性及数据回收等会产生一系列影响,也直接制约浮标使用寿命。为此,考虑减少风阻和水阻,减小浮标体对水帆运动的影响,提出了一种新型的适用于近远海海洋观测的表层漂流浮标体葫芦形外形设计方案。结合流体力学理论分析,运用Solid Works软件分别对葫芦形浮标体和常用的圆柱形浮标体建模,并利用Workbench软件CFX流体分析模块开展了流体分析和比较,结果表明葫芦形浮标体所受压力更均匀,其水下部分压力值较圆柱浮标体减小约28%,证明葫芦形外形浮标体更具可靠性。     

2008 年与2009 年黄海绿潮漂移路径分析

利用卫星资料分析了2008年和2009年黄海绿潮的漂移路径的差异,基于QSCAT(Quick Scatterometer)卫星风场及海洋模式表层环流模拟结果,分析了绿潮漂移路径差异的动力机制。结果表明:2008(2009)年绿潮发生期间黄海海域以南东(偏南)风为主,江苏至山东半岛南岸海域表层平均流为偏北(东北)向,青岛附近海域低频余流为偏西(东)向流,致使绿潮的漂移方向为西北(东北)向,在青岛(烟台-威海)近岸海域发生聚集。2008年和2009年绿潮漂移路径差异,主要由海面风与表层环流的共同作用引起。通过对黄海海域海面风场和表层流场的早期预报,可以提前预判绿潮的影响区域和程度,为政府相关部门防灾减灾工作提供决策支持。     

潮滩演变规律在围堤选线中的应用——以江苏辐射沙洲内缘区为例

滩涂围垦是沿海地区耕地占补平衡的重要手段。如何进行合理的围堤选线,尽可能减小围堤对潮滩水沙环境的影响,使匡围后的潮滩演变不影响海堤安全,是围海工程设计时必须考虑的问题。以江苏辐射沙洲内缘区仓东垦区匡围工程为例,运用潮滩均衡态概念框架,对条子泥西侧岸滩平均高潮位点变化、师地岛形成及潮沟活动性等潮滩演变特征及趋势进行了分析,并重点探讨了其在围堤选线中的应用。     

有冰海域溢油运动数值模型研究

提出了寒冷海域溢油运动短期数值模型,其中海冰运动预报模型针对不同海冰密集度的本构关系亦不同,在近岸及密集度较高的冰带采用基于连续介质理论的粘塑性本构关系;在冰边缘密集度较低的冰带采用基于离散介质理论的碰撞本构关系计算冰内力;溢油运动预报模型包括连续冰盖及高、中、低密集度冰场中溢油的漂移和扩展过程的预报.模拟计算结果表明模型的建立是合理的.该模型可用于事故溢油预报,为溢油的围收治理提供依据.     

基于北斗通信的海洋多要素观测系统设计

以低功耗、多参数、安全可靠为设计目标,提出一种基于北斗卫星通信的海洋多要素观测系统设计。设计以嵌入式微控制器STM32F103RET6为核心,实现以漂流浮标为载体的海洋环境噪声测量,同时实现对海洋气温、气压、风速、风向及表层海温的多要素观测;以可充电锂电池组和太阳能电池板组合方式供电,同时进行必要的电源管理,有效提高漂流浮标的工作寿命;采用我国自主知识产权的北斗系统进行定位及双向通信,安全性高。实验表明,基于北斗通信的海洋多要素观测系统设计具有可行性,满足低功耗、多参数、安全可靠的设计要求,为以表面漂流浮标为载体的海洋多要素数据采集控制提供新的硬件设计方法。     

Wind-induced drift of objects at sea: The leeway field method

A method for conducting leeway field experiments to establish the drift properties of small objects (0.1-25 m) is described. The objective is to define a standardized and unambiguous procedure for condensing the drift properties down to a set of coefficients that may be incorporated into existing stochastic trajectory forecast models for drifting objects of concern to search and rescue operations and other activities involving vessels lost at sea such as containers with hazardous material.An operational definition of the slip or wind and wave-induced motion of a drifting object relative to the ambient current is proposed. This definition taken together with a strict adherence to a 10 m wind speed allows us to refer unambiguously to the leeway of a drifting object. We recommend that all objects if possible be studied using what we term the direct method, where the object’s leeway is studied directly using an attached current meter.We establish a minimum set of parameters that should be estimated for a drifting object for it to be included in the operational forecast models used for prediction of search areas for drifting objects.We divide drifting objects into four categories, depending on their size. For the smaller objects (less than 0.5 m), an indirect method of measuring the object’s motion relative to the ambient current must be used. For larger objects, direct measurement of the motion through the near-surface water masses is strongly recommended. Larger objects are categorized according to the ability to attach current meters and wind monitoring systems to them.The leeway field method proposed here is illustrated with results from field work where three objects were studied in their distress configuration; a 1:3.3 sized model of a 40-foot Shipping container, a World War II mine and a 220 l (55-gallon) oil drum.     

Measurements of the water-following capability of holey-sock and TRISTAR drifters

Since 1985, a number of measurements have been made in deep water to determine the water-following characteristics of mixed layer drifters with both holey-sock and TRISTAR drogues at 15 m depth. The measurements were done by attaching two neutrally buoyant vector measuring current meters (VMCMs) to the top and the bottom of the drogues and deploying the drifters in different wind and upper ocean shear conditions for periods of 2–4 h. The average velocity of the VMCM records was taken to be a quantitative measure of the slip of the drogue through the water, observed to be 0.5-3.5 cm s⁻¹. The most important hydrodynamic design parameter which influenced the slip of the drogue was the ratio of the drag area of the drogue to the sum of the drag areas of the tether and surface floats: the drag area ratio R. The most important environmental parameters which affected the slip were the wind and the measured velocity difference across the vertical extent of the drogue. A model of the vector slip as a function of R, vector wind and velocity difference across the drogue was developed and a least squares fit accounts for 85% of the variance of the slip measurements. These measurements indicated that to reduce the wind produced slip below 1 cm s⁻¹ in 10 m s⁻¹ wind speed, R > 40. Conversely, if the daily average wind is known to 5 m s⁻¹ accuracy, the displacement of the R = 40 drifter can be corrected to an accuracy of 0.5 km day⁻¹.     

Creation of the database of monitoring of the Black Sea by using drifters

We consider some specific features of creation of the database according to the results of drifter experiments carried out in the Black Sea in 2001–2006. The general statistical information on all buoy studies in the sea is presented. The criteria used to filter the primary data are suggested. The principles of formation and structuring of the drifter database are presented. As an example, we describe the procedure and the results of comparison of model estimates with the data of contact measurements of the sea-surface temperature by drifting buoys.     

南黄海辐射沙洲成因的潮流数值模拟解释

用接近计算海域自然陆架坡度的均匀倾斜海底，对南黄海辐射沙洲区的潮流椭圆和潮流场进行数值模拟的结果表明：辐射状潮流场不依赖于海底地形而存在，相反，可能是产生和塑造辐射沙洲的主要动力。并用潮流和潮余流的计算结果，对沙洲区海底沉积物的运移、分布，海底沙洲北大南小的不对称性以及海底沙洲的动态作了解释     

Forecast of wave run-up on coastal structure using offshore wave forecast data

In this paper, first we introduce the wave run-up scale which describes the degree of wave run-up based on observed sea conditions near and on a coastal structure. Then, we introduce a simple method which can be used for daily forecast of wave run-up on a coastal structure. The method derives a multiple linear regression equation between wave run-up scale and offshore wind and wave parameters using long-term photographical observation of wave run-up and offshore wave forecasting model results. The derived regression equation then can be used for forecasting the run-up scale using the offshore wave forecasting model results. To test the implementation of the method, wave run-up scales were observed at four breakwaters in the East Coast of Korea for 9 consecutive months in 2008. The data for the first 6 months were used to derive multiple linear regression equations, which were then validated using the run-up scale data for the remaining 3 months and the corresponding offshore wave forecasting model results. A comparison with an engineering formula for wave run-up is also made. It is found that this method can be used for daily forecast and warning of wave run-up on a coastal structure with reasonable accuracy.     

Experimental Study on New Multi-Column Tension-Leg-Type Floating Wind Turbine

Deep-water regions often have winds favorable for offshore wind turbines, and floating turbines currently show the greatest potential to exploit such winds. This work established proper scaling laws for model tests, which were then implemented in the construction of a model wind turbine with optimally designed blades. The aerodynamic, hydrodynamic, and elastic characteristics of the proposed new multi-column tension-leg-type floating wind turbine (WindStar TLP system) were explored in the wave tank testing of a 1:50 scale model at the State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering at Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Tests were conducted under conditions of still water, white noise waves, irregular waves, and combined wind, wave, and current loads. The results established the natural periods of the motion, damping, motion response amplitude operators, and tendon tensions of the WindStar TLP system under different environmental conditions, and thus could serve as a reference for further research.     

基于GPU技术的风暴潮集合预报

台风预报的准确性在风暴潮预报中起着重要作用。台风强度和路径的不确定性意味着使用集合模式来预报风暴潮。本文利用中央气象台的最优路径台风参数驱动国家海洋环境预报中心业务化的水动力学模型，开展华南沿海的风暴潮模拟，模式模拟结果与实测吻合较好。为了改进计算效率，采用CUDA Fortran 语言对模型进行了改造，改造后的模型在计算结果与原模型基本一致的基础上，计算时间缩短了99%以上。通过融合欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECWMF）的50条路径与3种可能台风强度构造出了150个台风事件，并用150个台风事件驱动改进的风暴潮数值模型，计算结果可以提供集合预报产品和概率预报产品。通过“山竹”台风风暴潮过程可以发现集合平均预报结果和概率预报结果与实测吻合较好。改进的数值模型可以运行普通工作站上，非常适合风暴潮集合预报，并且可以提供更好的决策产品。     

基于机器学习的海洋环境预报订正方法研究

结合中尺度数值模式 WRF 预报数据和 ERA5 再分析资料，利用机器学习方法对 WRF 预报场的风场、温度、气压进行预报订正。采用 ERA5 作为真值，与原始 WRF 预报相比，利用随机森林模型可以将预报结果整体均方根误差降低 44%以 上，利用深度神经网络模型可以将预报结果整体均方根误差降低 34%以上。通过随机森林模型实验得到不同输入特征对预报要素的影响程度，分析了关键的预报订正因子。