Interpretation of sea surface wind interannual vector EOFs over the China seas

Using interpolation and averaging methods, we analyzed the sea surface wind data obtained from December 1992 to November 2008 by the scatterometers ERS-1, ERS-2, and QuikSCAT in the area of 2°N–39 °N, 105°E–130°E, and we reported the monthly mean distributions of the sea surface wind field. A vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method was employed to study the data and three temporal and spatial patterns were obtained. The first interannual VEOF accounts for 26% of the interannual variance and displays the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon. The second interannual VEOF accounts for 21% of the variance and reflects the response of China sea winds to El Niño events. The temporal mode of VEOF-2 is in good agreement with the curve of the Niño 3.4 index with a four-month lag. The spatial mode of VEOF-2 indicates that four months after an El Niño event, the southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can weaken the prevailing winds in winter, and can strengthen the prevailing winds in summer. The third interannual VEOF accounts for 10% of the variance and also reflects the influence of the ENSO events to China Sea winds. The temporal mode of VEOF-3 is similar to the curve of the Southern Oscillation Index. The spatial mode of VEOF-3 shows that the northeasterly anomalous winds over the South China Sea and the southern part of the East China Sea can weaken the prevailing winds, and southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern part of the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can strengthen the prevailing winds when El Niño occurs in winter. If El Niño happens in summer, the reverse is true.     

The interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the Japan/East Sea

Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993–2007 period and the thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2005 obtained by using the global ocean temperature data sets recently published are used to investigate the interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the Japan/East Sea (JES) and its response to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the interannual variations of the sea level observed by altimeter and those of the thermosteric sea level obtained from reanalyzed data in the JES are closely related to ENSO. As a result, one important consequence is that the sea level trends are mainly caused by the thermal expansion in the JES. An ‘enigma’ is revealed that the correlation between the thermosteric sea level and ENSO during the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) warm phase (post mid-1970s) is inconsistent with that during the cold phase (pre mid-1970s) in the JES. The thermosteric sea level trends and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) suggest a strong negative correlation during the period 1977–1998, whereas there appears a relatively weak positive correlation during the period 1945–1976 in the JES. Based on the SODA (Simple Oceanographic Data Assimilation) datasets, possible mechanisms of the interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the JES are discussed. Comprehensive analysis reveals that the negative anomalies of SOI correspond to the positive anomalies of the southeast wind stress, the net advective heat flux and the sea level in the JES during the PDO warm phase. During the PDO cold phase, the negative anomalies of SOI correspond to the positive anomalies of the southwest wind stress, the negative anomalies of the net advective heat flux and the sea level in the JES.     

Research on the Interannual Variability of the Great Whirl and the Related Mechanisms

Based on AVISO(archiving, validation and interpretation of satellite data in oceanography) data from 1993 to 2010, Quik SCAT(Quick Scatterometer) data from 2000 to 2008, and Argo data from 2003 to 2008, the interannual variability of the Great Whirl(GW) and related mechanisms are studied. It shows that the origin and termination times of the GW, as well as its location and intensity, have significant interannual variability. The GW appeared earliest(latest) in 2004(2008) and vanished earliest(latest) in 2006(2001), with the shortest(longest) duration in 2008(2001). Its center was most southward(northward) in 2007(1995), while the minimum(maximum) amplitude and area occurred in 2003 and 2002(1997 and 2007), respectively. The GW was weaker and disappeared earlier with its location tending to be in the southwest in 2003, while in 2005 it was stronger, vanished later and tended to be in northeast. The abnormal years were often not the same among different characters of the GW, and were not all coincident with ENSO(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation) or IOD(Indian Ocean Dipole) events, indicating the very complex nature of GW variations. Mechanism investigations shows that the interannual variability of intraseasonal wind stress curl in GW region results in that of the GW. The generation of the GW is coincident with the arrival of Rossby waves at the Somali coast in spring; the intensity of the GW is also influenced by Rossby waves. The termination of the GW corresponds well to the second one of the top two peaks in the baroclinic energy conversion rate in GW region, and the intensity and the position of the GW are also closely related to the top two baroclinic energy conversion rates.     

Variability of subduction rates of the subtropical North Pacific mode waters

The climatology subduction rate for the entire Pacific is known, but the mechanism of interannual to decadal variation remains unclear. In this study, we calculated the annual subduction rates of three types of North Pacific subtropical mode waters using a general circulation model (LICOM1.0) for the period of 1958-2001. The model experiments focused on interannual variations of ocean dynamical processes under daily wind forcings and seasonal heat fluxes. The mode water formation region was defined by a potential vorticity minimum at outcrop locations. The model results show that two subduction rate maxima (>100 m/a) were located in the Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) and the Central Mode Water (CMW) formation regions. These regions are consistent with a climatologically calculated value. The subduction rate in the Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (ESTMW) formation region was smaller at about 75 m/a. The subduction rate shows clear interannual and decadal variations associated with oceanic dynamic variabilities. The average subduction rate of the STMW was much smaller during the period of 1981-1990 compared with other periods, while that of the CMW had a negative anomaly before 1975 and a positive anomaly after 1978. The variability agreed with Ekman and geostrophic advections and mixed layer depths. The interannual variability of the subduction rate for the ESTMW was smallest during 1970-1990, as a result of a weak wind stress curl. This paper explores how interannual signals from the atmosphere are stored in different parts of the ocean, and thus may contribute to a better understanding of feedback mechanisms for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) event.     

Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals:a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach

Large-scale annual climate indices were used to forecast annual drought conditions in the Maharlu-Bakhtegan watershed,located in Iran,using a neuro-fuzzy model.The Standardized Precipitation Index（SPI） was used as a proxy for drought conditions.Among the 45 climate indices considered,eight identified as most relevant were the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation（AMO）,Atlantic Meridional Mode（AMM）,the Bivariate ENSO Time series（BEST）,the East Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature（NINO 3.4）,the Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature（NINO 4）,the North Tropical Atlantic Index（NTA）,the Southern Oscillation Index（SOI）,and the Tropical Northern Atlantic Index（TNA）.These indices accounted for 81% of the variance in the Principal Components Analysis（PCA） method.The Atlantic surface temperature（SST：Atlantic） had an inverse relationship with SPI,and the AMM index had the highest correlation.Drought forecasts of neuro-fuzzy model demonstrate better prediction at a two-year lag compared to a stepwise regression model.     

Interannual variability in the North Pacific meridional overturning circulation

We analyzed the temporal and spatial variation, and interannual variability of the North Pacific meridional overturning circulation using an empirical orthogonal function method, and calculated mass transport using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation Data from 1958–2008. The meridional streamfunction field in the North Pacific tilts N-S; the Tropical Cell (TC), Subtropical Cell (STC), and Deep Tropical Cell (DTC) may be in phase on an annual time scale; the TC and the STC are out of phase on an interannual time scale, but the interannual variability of the DTC is complex. The TC and STC interannual variability is associated with ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). The TC northward, southward, upward, and downward transports all weaken in El Niños and strengthen in La Niñas. The STC northward and southward transports are out of phase, while the STC northward and downward transports are in phase. Sea-surface water that reaches the middle latitude and is subducted may not completely return to the tropics. The zonal wind anomalies over the central North Pacific, which control Ekman transport, and the east-west slope of the sea level may be major factors causing the TC northward and southward transport interannual variability and the STC northward and southward transports on the interannual time scale. The DTC northward and southward transports decrease during strong El Niños and increase during strong La Niñas. DTC upward and downward transports are not strongly correlated with the Niño-3 index and may not be completely controlled by ENSO.     

Interannual variability of latent and sensible heat fluxes in the South China Sea

The South China Sea (SCS) is significantly influenced by El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through ENSO-driven atmospheric and oceanic changes. We analyzed measurements made from 1960 to 2004 to investigate the interannual variability of the latent and sensible heat fluxes over the SCS. Both the interannual variations of latent and sensible heat fluxes are closely related to ENSO events. The low-pass mean heat flux anomalies vary in a coherent manner with the low-pass mean Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Time lags between the heat flux anomalies and the SST anomalies were also studied. We found that latent heat flux anomalies have a minimum value around January of the year following El Niño events. During and after the mature phase of El Niño, a change of atmospheric circulation alters the local SCS near-surface humidity and the monsoon winds. During the mature phase of El Niño, the wind speed decreases over the entire sea, and the air-sea specific humidity difference anomalies decreases in the northern SCS and increases in the southern SCS. Thus, a combined effect of wind speed anomalies and air-sea specific humidity difference anomalies results in the latent heat flux anomalies attaining minimum levels around January of the year following an El Niño year.     

Seasonal-to-interannual variability of chlorophyll in central western South China Sea extracted from SeaWiFS

Using 10-year (January 1998–October 2007) dataset of Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), we extracted the dominant spatial patterns and temporal variations of the chlorophyll distribution in the central western South China Sea (SCS) through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The results show that the first EOF mode is characterized by a high chlorophyll concentration zone along the Vietnam coast. We found two peaks in summer (July–August) and in winter (December), respectively, in no...     

Interannual variability of SST,SLA and wind waves in the Hawaii area and their responses to ENSO

Time series of sea surface temperature (SST),wind speed and significant wave height (SWH) from meteorologicalbuoys of the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) are useful for studying the interannual variability and trend of these quantities at the buoy areas.The measurements from 4 buoys (B51001,B51002,B51003 and B51004) in the Hawaii area are used to study theresponses of the quantities to EI Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO).Long-term averages of these data reflect precise seasonaland climatological characteristics of SST,wind speed and SWH around the Hawaii area.Buoy observations from B51001 suggest asignificant warming trend which is,however,not very clear from the other three buoys.Compared with the variability of SST andSWH,the wind speeds from the buoy observations show an increasing trend.The impacts of El Nifio on SST and wind waves arealso shown.Sea level data observed by altimeter during October 1992 to September 2006 are analyzed to investigate the variabilityof sea level in the Hawaii area.The results also show an increasing trend in sea level anomaly (SLA).The low-passed SLA in theHawaii area is consistent with the inverse phase of the low-passed Sol (Southern Oscillation Index).Compared with the low-passedSOl and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation),the low-passed PNA (Pacific-North America Index) has a better correlation with thelow-passed SLA in the Hawaii area.     

基于多源数据的华北平原地下水储量时空变化分析

利用GRACE卫星数据反演华北平原2003~2015年地下水储量变化,并用监测井数据进行验证。基于EOF方法分解GRACE年际地下水储量变化,结合冬小麦年均WFblue和TRMM降雨数据分析影响华北平原地下水储量年际变化的因素。结果表明,前2个特征向量方差贡献率为93.09%。其中,第1模态方差贡献率为80.04%,与华北平原2003~2009年冬小麦年均WFblue空间变化的相关系数为-0.69,且空间分布一致;第2模态方差贡献率为13.05%,与同时段降水数据的空间分布的相关系数为0.93。说明农业灌溉,尤其是冬小麦的灌溉对华北平原地下水的消耗起着至关重要的作用。     

Variation in joint mode of the tropical Indian-Pacific Ocean thermodynamic anomaly

Previous research has defined the index of the Indian-Pacific thermodynamic anomaly joint mode (IPTAJM) and suggested that the winter IPTAJM has an important impact on summer rainfall over China. However, the possible causes for the interannual and decadal variability of the IPTAJM are still unclear. Therefore, this work investigates zonal displacements of both the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool (EIOWP). The relationships between the WPWP and the EIOWP and the IPTAJM are each examined, and then the impacts of the zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans on the IPTAJM are studied. The WPWP eastern edge anomaly displays significant interannual and decadal variability and experienced a regime shift in about 1976 and 1998, whereas the EIOWP western edge exhibits only distinct interannual variability. The decadal variability of the IPTAJM may be mainly caused by both the zonal migration of the WPWP and the 850 hPa zonal wind anomaly over the central equatorial Pacific. On the other hand, the zonal migrations of both the WPWP and the EIOWP and the zonal wind anomalies over the central equatorial Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean may be all responsible for the interannual variability of the IPTAJM.     

Water discharge variability of Changjiang （Yangtze） and Huanghe （Yellow） Rivers and its response to climatic changes

Influences of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as the E1Nifio/La Nifia-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, on the temporal variations of the annual water discharge at the Lijin station in the Huanghe （Yellow） River and at the Datong station in the Changjiang （Yangtze） River were examined. Using the empirical mode decomposition-maximum entropy spectral analysis （EMD- MESA） method, the 2- to 3-year, 8- to 14-year, and 23-year cyclical variations of the annual water discharge at the two stations were discovered. Based on the analysis results, the hydrological time series on the inter- annual to interdecadal scales were constructed. The results indicate that from 1950 to 2011, a significant downward trend occurred in the natural annual water discharge in Huanghe River. However, the changes in water discharge in Changjiang River basin exhibited a slightly upward trend. It indicated that the changes in the river discharge in the Huanghe basin were driven primarily by precipitation. Other factors, such as the precipitation over the Changjiang River tributaries, ice melt and evaporation contributed much more to the increase in the Changjiang River basin. Especially, the impacts of the inter-annual and inter-decadal climate oscillations such as ENSO and PDO could change the long-term patterns of precipitation over the basins of the two major rivers. Generally, low amounts of basin-wide precipitation on interannual to interdecadal scales over the two rivers corresponded to most of the warm ENSO events and the warm phases of the PDO, and vice versa. The positive phases of the PDO and ENSO could lead to reduced precipitation and consequently affect the long-term scale water discharges at the two rivers.     

Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: A multi-member study with CCSM4

Based on a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, the response of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode to global warming is investigated with a six member ensemble of simulations for the period 1850–2100. The model can simulate the IOD features realistically, including the east-west dipole pattern and the phase locking in boreal autumn. The ensemble analysis suppresses internal variability and isolates the radiative forced response. In response to increasing greenhouse gases, a weakening of the Walker circulation leads to the easterly wind anomalies in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the shoaling thermocline in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO), and sea surface temperature and precipitation changes show an IOD-like pattern in the equatorial Indian Ocean. Although the thermocline feedback intensifies with shoaling, the interannual variability of the IOD mode surprisingly weakens under global warming. The zonal wind feedback of IOD is found to weaken as well, due to decreased precipitation in the EEIO. Therefore, the atmospheric feedback decreases much more than the oceanic feedback increases, causing the decreased IOD variance in this model.     

Monsoon-Ocean Coupled Modes in the South China Sea and Their Linkage with the Eastern Indian Ocean-Western Pacific Warm Pool

Monsoon-ocean coupled modes in the South China Sea （SCS） were investigated by a combined singular value decomposition （CSVD） analysis based on sea surface temperature （SST） and sea surface wind stress （SWS） fields from SODA （Simple Ocean Data Assimilation） data spanning the period of 1950-1999. The coupled fields achieved the maximum correlation when the SST lagged SWS by one month, indicating that the SCS coupled system mainly reflected the response of the SST to monsoon forcing. Three significant coupled modes were found in the SCS, accounting for more than 80% of the cumulative squared covariance fraction. The first three SST spatial patterns from CSVD were： （Ⅰ） the monopole pattern along the isobaths in the SCS central basin; （Ⅱ） the north-south dipole pattern; and （Ⅲ） the west-east seesaw pattern. The expansion coefficient of the SST leading mode showed interdecadal and interannual variability and correlation with the Indo-Pacific warm pool （IPWP）, suggesting that the SCS belongs to part of the IPWP at interannual and interdecadal time scales. The second mode had a lower correlation coefficient with the warm pool index because its main period was at intra-annual time scales instead of the interannual and interdecadal scales with the warm pools. The third mode had similar periods to those of the leading mode, but lagged the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool （EIWP） and western Pacific warm pool （WPWP） by five months and one year respectively, implying that the SCS response to the warm pool variation occurred from the western Pacific to the eastern Indian Ocean, which might have been related to the variation of Indonesian throughflow. All three modes in the SCS had more significant correlations with the EIWP, which means the SCS SST varied much more coherently with the EIWP than the WPWP, suggesting that the SCS belongs mostly to part of the EIWP. The expansion coefficients of the SCS SST modes all had negative correlations with the Nino3 index, which they lag by several months, indicating a remote response of SCS SST variability to the El Nifio events.     

Interannual variability of the southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass

Temperature data collected in the sections of 34°N, 35°N and 36°N in August from 1975 through 2003 were analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) to investigate interannual variability of the southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM). The first mode (EOF1) reveals variations of basin-wide thermocline depth, which is mainly caused by surface heating. The second mode (EOF2) presents fluctuations of vertical circulation, resulting mainly from interannual variability of cold front intensity. In addition, it is found that the upward extent of upwelling in the cold front is basically determined by wind stress curl and the zonal position of the warm water center in the southern Yellow Sea is correlated with spatial difference of net heat flux.     

Interannual Variability of the Hadley Circulation Associated with Tropical Pacific SST Anomaly

The seasonal and interannual variability of zonal mean Hadley circulation are analyzed, and the important effects of sea surface temperature(SST), especially the tropical Pacific SST, on the meridional circulation are discussed. Following results are obtained: 1) the Hadley circulation presents a single clockwise(anticlockwise) cross-equator circulation in the Northern(Southern) Hemisphere winter,while it is a double-ring-shaped circulation quasi-symmetric about the equator in spring and autumn. The annual mean state just indicates the residual of the Hadley cell in winter and summer. 2) The first mode of interannual anomalies shows a single cell crossing the equator like the climatology in winter and summer but with narrower width. The second mode shows a double ring-shaped cell quasi-symmetric about the equator which is similar to the Hadley cell in spring or autumn. 3) Vertical motion of the Hadley circulation is driven by sea surface temperature(SST) through latent and sensible heat in the tropics, and the interannual anomalies are mainly driven by the SST anomaly(SSTa) in the tropical Pacific. 4) The meridional gradient of SSTa is well consistent with the lower meridional wind of Hadley circulation in the interannual part. For the spatial distribution, the meridional gradient of SSTa in the Pacific plays a major role for the first two modes while the effects of the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean can be ignored.     

Interannual variability of the spring Wyrtki Jet

Feature s of the interannual variability of the spring Wyrtki Jet in the tropical Indian Ocean are revealed using observation data and model output.The results show that the jet has significant interannual variation,which has a significant correlation with winter El Nino Modoki index(R=0.62).During spring after an El Nino(La Nina) Modoki event,the Wyrtki Jet has a positive(negative) anomaly,forced by a westerly(easterly) wind anomaly.The result of a linear-continuously stratified model shows that the first two baroclinic modes explain most of the interannual variability of the spring Wyrtki Jet(-70%) and the third to fifth modes together account for approximately 30%.Surface wind anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean are related to the Walker circulation anomaly associated with El Nino/La Nina Modoki.The interannual variability of the spring Wyrtki Jet has an evident impact on sea surface salinity transport before the onset phase of the summer monsoon in the Indian Ocean.     

Variabilities of surface current in the tropical Pacific Ocean

The Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) package is used to better understand the variabilities of surface current transport in the Tropical Pacific Ocean from 1950 to 1999. Seasonal variation, internnual and decadal variability analyses are conducted on the three major surface currents of the Tropical Pacific Ocean: the North Equatorial Current (NEC), the North Equatorial Countecurrent (NECC), and the South Equatorial Current (SEC). The transport of SEC is quite larger than those of NEC and NECC. The SEC has two maximums in February and August. The NEC has a small annual variation. The NECC has a maximum in October and is very weak in March and April. All currents have remarkable interannual and decadal variabilities. The variabilities of the NEC and the SEC related to the winds over them well, but the relationship between the NECC and the wind over it is not close. Analysis related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) suggests that before El Niño (La Niña) the SEC is weaker (stronger) and the NECC is stronger (weaker), after El Niño (La Niña) the SEC is stronger (weaker) and the SEC is weaker (stronger). There is no notable relationship between the NEC and ENSO.     

Retrieving multi-scale climatic variations from high dimensional time-series MODIS green vegetation cover in a tropical/subtropical mountainous island

【Title】
There are knowledge gaps in our understanding of vegetation responses to multi-scale climate-related variables in tropical/subtropical mountainous islands in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, this study investigated inter-annual vegetation dynamics and regular/irregular climate patterns in Taiwan. We applied principal component analysis （PCA） on 11 years （2001~2011） of high-dimensional monthly photosynthetically active vegetation cover （PV） derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） and investigated the relationships between spatiotemporal patterns of the eigenvectors and loadings of each component through time and multi-scale climate-related variations. Results showed that the first five components contributed to 96.4% of the total variance. The first component （PC1, explaining 94.5% of variance） loadings, as expected, were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV （r = 0.94）, which was mainly governed by regional climate. The temporal loadings of PC2 and PC3 （0.8% and 0.6% of variance, respectively） were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV of forests （r = 0.72） and the farmlands （r = 0.80）, respectively. The low-order components （PC4 and PC5, 0.3% and 0.2% of variance, respectively） were closely related to the occurrence of drought （r = 0.49） and to irregular ENSO associated climate anomalies （r = -0.54）, respectively. Pronounced correlations were also observed between PC5 and the Southern Oscillation Index （SOI） with one to three months of time lags （r = -0.35 ~ -0.43, respectively）, revealing biophysical memory effects on the time-series pattern of the vegetation through ENSO-related rainfall patterns. Our findings reveal that the sensitivity of the ecosystems in this tropical/subtropical mountainous island may not only be regulated by regional climate and human activities but also be susceptible to large-scale climate anomalies which are crucial and comparable to previous large scale analyses. This study demonstrates that PCA can be an effective tool for analyzing seasonal and inter-annual variability of vegetation dynamics across this tropical/subtropical mountainous islandin the Pacific Ocean, which provides an opportunity to forecast the responses and feedbacks of terrestrial environments to future climate scenarios.     

Intraseasonal variability of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and its relationship with ENSO based on Self-Organizing Maps analysis

We investigated the intraseasonal variability of equatorial Pacific subsurface temperature and its relationship with El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) using Self-Organizing Maps(SOM) analysis.Variation in intraseasonal subsurface temperature is mainly found along the thermocline.The SOM patterns concentrate in basin-wide seesaw or sandwich structures along an east-west axis.Both the seesaw and sandwich SOM patterns oscillate with periods of 55 to 90 days,with the sequence of them showing features of equatorial intraseasonal Kelvin wave,and have marked interannual variations in their occurrence frequencies.Further examination shows that the interannual variability of the SOM patterns is closely related to ENSO;and maxima in composite interannual variability of the SOM patterns are located in the central Pacific during CP El Nino and in the eastern Pacific during EP El Nino.The se results imply that some of the ENSO forcing is manife sted through changes in the occurrence frequency of intraseasonal patterns,in which the change of the intraseasonal Kelvin wave plays an important role.