The relationships between tropical cyclone tracks and local SST over the western North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone (TC) tracks over the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1949–2007, obtained from China Meteorological Administration/Shanghai Typhoon institute, are classified into three track types. These types are the main pathways by which TCs influence the coast of East Asia. The relationships between local sea surface temperature (SST) in WNP and TC tracks are revealed. Results show that the local SST plays an important role in TC tracks, though the relationships between local SST and the frequencies ...     

A mechanism of interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) has changed interdecadally with an approximately 20-year period between 1951 and 1999. The cause and mechanism of interdecadal variability of TC frequency in the WNP is investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the result obtained from a high-resolution coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The interdecadal variability of TC activity in the WNP correlates with long-term variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical central Pacific and with those of westerly wind anomalies associated with the monsoon trough that appears over the tropical WNP during the typhoon season of July to October. The westerly wind anomalies at near 10°N show positive feedback with the SST anomalies in the central Pacific. Therefore, the interdecadal variability of TC frequency is related to long-term variations in atmosphere–ocean coupling phenomena in the tropical North Pacific. A 50-year long-run simulation using the high-resolution CGCM showed the robustness of interdecadal variability of TC frequency.     

西北太平洋热带气旋强度资料的对比

在获取关岛联合台风警报中心(JTWC)以及中国气象局《台风年鉴》和《热带气旋年鉴》自1949—2004年西北太平洋热带气旋强度(近中心最大风力)资料的基础上,着重比较了两者在时间变化上的差异,结果显示:热带风暴以上近56 a所有样本的平均风速前者小于后者0.81 m.s-1,而这一差异主要的贡献是强台风以上样本。两资料集最显著的特征是热带风暴以上年平均风速随时间变化的差异上,自1970s中期到1990s中期,两者的走势趋向呈相反的态势,前者呈上升趋势,后者呈下降趋势,特别是强台风以上样本表现更为突出。利用资料相对稳定性原则,对JTWC和《台风年鉴》资料进行校正,1990s以来JTWC估计的热带气旋强度可能偏大,1970s之前《台风年鉴》估计的数值也可能偏大。     

Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

Summary This paper reviews the interannual and interdecadal variations in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) and the possible physical mechanisms responsible for such variations. Interannual variations can largely be explained by changes in the planetary-scale flow patterns. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the WNP, however, do not contribute to such variations. Rather, SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are significantly correlated with TC activity over the WNP. Causality can be established: changes in the SST in the equatorial Pacific are related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, and modifications of the planetary-scale flow associated with ENSO alter the conditions over the WNP and hence TC activity there. Variations in annual TC activity are also associated with different phases of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillations due to its modification of the vertical wind shear of the environment in which TCs form. Interdecadal variations in TC activity are apparently related to the location, strength and extent of the North Pacific subtropical high. However, the mechanisms responsible for modifying these characteristics of the subtropical high have yet to be identified.     

Re-examination of tropical cyclone formation in monsoon troughs over the western North Pacific

The monsoon trough(MT) is one of the large-scale patterns favorable for tropical cyclone(TC) formation over the western North Pacific(WNP). This study re-examines TC formation by treating the MT as a large-scale background for TC activity during May–October. Over an 11-year(2000–10) period, 8.3 TC formation events on average per year are identified to occur within MTs, accounting for 43.1% of the total TC formation events in the WNP basin. This percentage is much lower than those reported in previous studies. Further analysis indicates that TC formation events in monsoon gyres were included at least in some previous studies. The MT includes a monsoon confluence zone where westerlies meet easterlies and a monsoon shear line where the trade easterlies lie north of the monsoon westerlies. In this study, the large-scale flow pattern associated with TC formation in the MT is composited based on the reference point in the confluence zone where both the zonal and meridional wind components are zero with positive vorticity. While previous studies have found that many TCs form in the confluence zone, the composite analysis indicates that nearly all of the TCs formed in the shear region, since the shear region is associated with stronger low-level relative vorticity than the confluence zone. The prevailing easterly vertical shear of zonal wind and barotropic instability may also be conducive to TC formation in the shear region, through the development of synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in the MT that are necessary for TC formation.     

西北太平洋热带气旋频次的延伸期动力-统计预报方法和评估

介绍了西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)频次的延伸期预报方法,比较了新构建的动力-统计和统计预报模型的预测技巧,并探讨了预报误差来源及改进方向。动力-统计预报模型是基于动力模式预测的热带季节内振荡(ISO)信号及ISO-TC生成的同期统计关系来进行预报;统计预报模型则是基于TC生成的前兆ISO信号建模预报。预报评估结果显示,动力-统计混合预报模型的预报技巧高于统计预报模型,原因在于影响TC次季节变化的前兆信号并不稳定,且随着预报超前时间迅速消散,无法提供有效且稳定的可预报源;相反地,TC生成与同期的ISO背景场显著相关,动力模式对ISO(预报因子)有较好的预报能力,因此动力-统计相结合的预报方法为TC延伸期预报提供了有效途径。虽然目前动力-统计预报模型的预报技巧可达5～6周,但仍有进一步改进和提高的空间。通过对不同类型TC预报技巧检验和误差分析,研究认为年际和年代际背景场对ISO调控TC活动的影响不可忽略,且热带外ISO信号(如罗斯贝波破碎和西风急流强度等)对TC频次和轨迹也有显著影响,这些因子为TC延伸期预报提供了潜在可预报源。     

A western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity prediction scheme

A western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction scheme (WIPS) is developed based on TC samples from 1996 to 2002 using the stepwise regression technique, with the western North Pacific divided into three sub-regions: the region near the coast of East China (ECR), the South China Sea region (SCR), and the far oceanic region (FOR). Only the TCs with maximum sustained surface wind speed greater than 17.2 m s⁻¹ are used in the scheme. Potential predictors include the climatology and persistence factors, synoptic environmental conditions, potential intensity of a TC and proximity of a TC to land. Variances explained by the selected predictors suggest that the potential intensity of a TC and the proximity of a TC to land are significant in almost all the forecast equations. Other important predictors include vertical wind shear in ECR, 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly at the TC center, zonal component of TC translation speed in SCR, intensity change of TC 12 or 24 h prior to initial time, and the longitude of TC center in FOR.     

Simulation of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific based on CMIP5 models

Based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models, the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the summers of 1965–2005 over the western North Pacific (WNP) is simulated by a TC dynamically downscaling system. In consideration of diversity among climate models, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and equal-weighed model averaging (EMA) methods are applied to produce the ensemble large-scale environmental factors of the CMIP5 model outputs. The environmental factors generated by BMA and EMA methods are compared, as well as the corresponding TC simulations by the downscaling system. Results indicate that BMA method shows a significant advantage over the EMA. In addition, impacts of model selections on BMA method are examined. To each factor, ten models with better performance are selected from 30 CMIP5 models and then conduct BMA, respectively. As a consequence, the ensemble environmental factors and simulated TC activity are similar with the results from the 30 models’ BMA, which verifies the BMA method can afford corresponding weight for each model in the ensemble based on the model’s predictive skill. Thereby, the existence of poor performance models will not particularly affect the BMA effectiveness and the ensemble outcomes are improved. Finally, based upon the BMA method and downscaling system, we analyze the sensitivity of TC activity to three important environmental factors, i.e., sea surface temperature (SST), large-scale steering flow, and vertical wind shear. Among three factors, SST and large-scale steering flow greatly affect TC tracks, while average intensity distribution is sensitive to all three environmental factors. Moreover, SST and vertical wind shear jointly play a critical role in the inter-annual variability of TC lifetime maximum intensity and frequency of intense TCs.     

Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific using teleconnection patterns

This study has developed a multiple linear regression model for the seasonal prediction of the summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) in the western North Pacific using the three teleconnection patterns. These patterns are representative of the Siberian High Oscillation (SHO) in the East Asian continent, the North Pacific Oscillation in the North Pacific, and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) near the Australia during the boreal spring (April–May). This statistical model is verified through the two analyses: (a) statistical method of cross validation and (b) differences between the high TCGF years and low TCGF years that is hindcasted by the statistical model. The high TCGF years are characterized by the following anomalous features: Three anomalous teleconnection patterns such as anticyclonic circulation (positive SHO phase) in the East Asian continent, pressure pattern like “north-high and south-low” in the North Pacific, and cyclonic circulation (negative AAO phase) near the Australia were strengthened during the period from boreal spring to boreal summer. Thus, anomalous trade winds in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) were weakened by anomalous cyclonic circulations that located in the subtropical western Pacific (SWP) in both hemispheres. In consequence, this spatial distribution of anomalous pressure pattern suppressed convection in the TWP but strengthened convection in the SWP.     

西北太平洋近赤道热带气旋生成的特征分析

1979—2012年西北太平洋存在70个形成于0°～5°N的低纬度地区的热带气旋(TC),占TC总量的8%,其中达到台风等级的个数占64%。而针对此类缺少一定科氏力作用而形成的罕见TC生成的研究相对较少。本文利用JTWC的TC最佳观测资料、ERA-Interim再分析资料,以及NOAA-OISST海温资料,以西北太平洋近赤道TC为研究对象,统计诊断了其年际、年代际、季节分布特征,分析了其大尺度环境背景场,重点探讨了近赤道TC生成的影响因子。研究结果表明,近赤道TC具有明显的年际与年代际变化,并且近赤道TC具有与西北太平洋总TC恰好相反的季节变化。近赤道TC生成的大尺度环境背景场是东北冬季风与其在近赤道地区偏转形成的西北风之间的气旋性环流。对流层低层的绝对涡度动力项与对流层中层的湿度热量项是近赤道TC生成的主要贡献因子,并且相对于5°～10°N生成的TC,近赤道TC对对流层低层的正涡度与对流层中层的湿度条件的要求更高。     

Decadal change in relationship between western North Pacific tropical cyclone frequency and the tropical Pacific SST

In this study, we examine the relationship between the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific and the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) during the main TC season (July–November) for the period of 1965–2006. Results show that there are periods when TC frequency and the tropical Pacific SST are well correlated and periods when the relationship breaks down. Therefore, decadal variation is readily apparent in the relationship between the TC frequency and the SST variations in the tropical Pacific. We further examine the oceanic and atmospheric states in the two periods (i.e., 1979–1989 vs. 1990–2000) when the marked contrast in the correlation between the TC frequency and the tropical Pacific SST is observed. Before 1990, the analysis indicates that oceanic conditions largely influenced anomalous TC frequency, whereas atmospheric conditions had little impact. After 1990, there the reverse appears to be the case, i.e., atmospheric conditions drive anomalous TC frequency and oceanic conditions are relatively unimportant. A role of atmosphere and ocean in relation to the TC development in the western North Pacific changes, which is consistent with the change of the correlations between the TC frequency and the tropical Pacific SST.     

西北太平洋上热带气旋尺度变化率与其尺度和强度的关系

为了进一步了解热带气旋(TC)尺度变化与其结构的相关关系,本文基于多平台热带气旋表面风场资料,通过相关分析得出西北太平洋上TC的24 h尺度变化率(SCR)与其尺度,强度以及强度变化率(ICR)的相关系数分别为-0.43,-0.12,0.25.其中SCR-ICR的相关关系主要受不同发展阶段的影响,在TC均达到/均未达到...     

西北太平洋TC移动速度异常及预报误差特征的分析

利用国家气象局和上海台风研究所(CMA-STI)整编的西北太平洋1970—2009年热带气旋(TC,Tropical Cyclone)及TC最佳路径数据集和2005—2010年的TC路径预报误差资料,应用百分位法,确定TC移动速度异常指标,分析了40 a来西北太平洋TC移动速度及其变化异常发生的时空分布特征,研究了TC速度预报误差对路径预报误差的影响及其与大尺度引导气流之间的关系。结果显示:1)西北太平洋TC移速及移速变化累积概率达95%(5%)分位数的阈值分别为10.8 m·s~(-1)(1.43 m·s~(-1))和2.42m·s~(-1)(-1.72 m·s~(-1))。2)快速移动及加速的TC大都出现在日本海地区,而缓慢的和减速移动TC主要出现在南海区域。3)TC移动速度异常的季节变化表现为,快速移动的TC在5月出现的频率达到最高,缓慢移动的TC在10月频率达到最高,加速移动的TC在6月频率达到最高。4)近6 a的TC移速预报误差对TC路径预报误差的贡献平均约为41.6%。5)对TC路径预报误差偏大,且移速预报误差贡献大的个例分析显示,该个例大尺度环境引导气流偏弱使TC移动速度偏慢。而如果预报的大尺度环境引导气流偏强,使预报的TC移速偏快,那么就容易导致大的路径预报误差。     

澳大利亚冷空气活动对西北太平洋热带气旋生成的影响

利用1980—2012年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及中国气象局的最佳台风路径资料,研究澳大利亚冷空气活动对西北太平洋热带气旋生成的影响。研究发现,北半球夏季925 h Pa经向风超过6 m/s的频数在澳大利亚东北部海域最高,达40 d/a。为此,确定澳大利亚冷空气侵入南北半球低纬的关键区为澳大利亚东北部所罗门海地区,并用该区域经向风风速定义了一个澳大利亚冷空气活动强度指数。该指数与越赤道气流及赤道西风都有很好的相关关系,还与同期的SOI(Southern Oscillation Index,南方涛动指数)显著相关。当SOI偏低(高)时,关键区经向风风速偏强(弱)。合成分析和相关分析结果表明,澳大利亚冷空气活动强、弱年西北太平洋热带气旋生成的位置的变化与季风槽的变化一致,西北太平洋热带气旋生成总数则无显著差异。澳大利亚冷空气活动强年季风槽偏强偏东,热带气旋生成位置偏东偏南;而弱年季风槽偏弱偏西,热带气旋生成位置偏西偏北。低层涡度场、水汽输送、风垂直切变以及低纬地区对流活动的分布表明,澳大利亚冷空气活动强年有利于热带气旋生成位置偏东、偏南;弱年偏西、偏北。     

西北太平洋台风季节预报的数值模拟

利用中尺度气象模式WRF（weather research and forecasting）对2006年7月1日-9月30日的西北太平洋夏季台风进行了动力季节预报试验。结果表明：1）在对3个月以内的台风作动力季节预报试验时,WRF模式模拟的台风总个数与实况接近,模式模拟的总登陆台风数与实况相比偏小。从各月模拟情况看,台风总数与登陆数的模拟均与实况有差距。WRF模式对台风强度的模拟总体偏弱。2）WRF在模拟2006年7q月台风以及平均高度场、水平风垂直切变时,7月与实况接近,随时间增长,与实况的差别明显增大．WRF模式具有一定的台风动力季节预报能力,但其预报时限有待探讨。     

Influence of monsoon over the warm pool on interannual variation on tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

The relationship between the interannual variation in tropical cyclone （TC） activity over the western North Pacific （WNP） and the thermal state over the warm pool （WP） is examined in this paper. The results show that the subsurface temperature in the WP is well correlated with TC geographical distribution and track type. Their relation is linked by the East Asian monsoon trough. During the warm years, the westward-retreating monsoon trough creates convergence and vorticity fields that are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the northwest of the WNP, whereas more TCs concentrating in the southeast result from eastward penetration of the monsoon trough during the cold years. The steering flows at 500 hPa lead to a westward displacement track in the warm years and recurving prevailing track in the cold years.
The two types of distinct processes in the monsoon environment triggering tropical cyclogenesis are hypothesized by composites centered for TC genesis location corresponding to two kinds of thermal states of the WP. During the warm years, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillation is active in the west of the WNP such that eastward-propagating westerlies cluster TC genesis in that region. In contrast, during the cold years, the increased cyclogenesis in the southeast of the WNP is mainly associated with tropical depression type disturbances transiting from equatorially trapped mixed Rossby gravity waves. Both of the processes may be fundamental mechanisms for the inherent interannual variation in TC activity over the WNP.     

Possible relationship between western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity and Arctic Oscillation

This study found that Arctic Oscillation (AO) has a significant influence on tropical cyclone (TC) activities in the western North Pacific during the boreal summer (July, August, and September). During low- (high-) AO years, more TCs formed over east (west) of 150° E, recurved in the east (west), and passed over the midlatitudes (southeast Asian region), including Korea and Japan (South China Sea and south China), compared to the high- (low-) AO years. In particular, the TC passage frequency difference between the two periods showed a dipole-like pattern between the regions of Southeast and Northeast Asia. The differences between these two periods were caused by a stronger anticyclonic circulation located around Korea and Japan during high-AO years. This circulation played a significant role in blocking the movement of TCs toward Korea and Japan during high-AO years. Instead, TCs moved westward toward the SCS and southern China along the easterly and southeasterly steering flow of this anticyclonic circulation. As a result, TC lifetime and intensity were shorter and weaker during high-AO years.     

夏季热带北大西洋海温异常对西北太平洋热带气旋生成的影响

利用1979—2012年西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径资料,Hadley中心的海温资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,研究了夏季(6—10月)热带北大西洋海温异常与西北太平洋热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)生成的关系及其可能机制。结果表明,夏季热带北大西洋海温异常与同期西北太平洋TC生成频次之间存在显著的负相关关系。热带北大西洋海温的异常增暖可产生一对东—西向分布的偶极型低层异常环流,其中气旋性异常环流位于北大西洋/东太平洋地区,反气旋异常环流位于西北太平洋地区。该反气旋环流异常使得TC主要生成区的对流活动受到抑制、低层涡度正异常、中低层相对湿度负异常、中层下沉气流异常,这些动力/热力条件均不利于TC生成。此外,西北太平洋地区低层涡旋动能负异常,同时来自大尺度环流的涡旋动能的正压转换也受到抑制,不能为TC的生成和发展提供额外能量源。反之亦然。