Variation of the Kuroshio intrusion pathways northeast of Taiwan using the Lagrangian method

The seasonal variations of the Kuroshio intrusion pathways northeast of Taiwan were investigated using observational data from satellite-tracked sea surface drifters and a numerical particle-tracking experiment based on a high-resolution numerical ocean model. The results of sea surface drifter data observed from 1989 to 2013 indicate that the Kuroshio surface intrusion follows two distinct pathways: one is a northwestward intrusion along the northern coast of Taiwan Island, and the other is a direct intrusion near the turn of the shelf break. The former occurs primarily in the winter, while the latter exists year round. A particle-tracking experiment in the high-resolution numerical model reproduces the two observed intrusion paths by the sea surface drifters. The three-dimensional structure of the Kuroshio intrusion is revealed by the model results. The pathways, features and possible dynamic mechanisms of the subsurface intrusion are also discussed.     

An altimetric transport index for Kuroshio inflow northeast of Taiwan Island

The Kuroshio inflow northeast of Taiwan Island plays an important role in the heat and nutrient balances over the East China Sea(ECS). Based on merged satellite altimeter data and the PCM-1 mooring observation at the East Taiwan Channel(ETC), the study employs a correlation iteration scheme to find the optimal transport index for the Kuroshio inflow. The sea level difference with the highest correlation to the ETC transport is across the ECS shelf break rather than along the PCM-1 line. The counter-intuitive result is caused by large signal noise and poor track coverage of altimeters near the Taiwan coast. The optimal altimetric index is highly correlated with the two-year in-situ measurements as well as the ten-year output of the global assimilation model. It serves as a better estimator of Kuroshio inflow than those using tidal gauge data, and helps pinpoint a 5 cm mismatch of mean sea level in the Keelung tidal record. The mean transport of Kuroshio inflow based on the twenty-year altimetric index is 20.55 Sv with a standard deviation of 3.05 Sv. Wavelet spectrum of the index reveals that semi-annual period dominates the Kuroshio variation northeast of Taiwan Island.     

Biweekly periodic variation of the Kuroshio axis northeast of Taiwan as revealed by ocean high-frequency radar

An analysis of surface current data obtained from 2002 to 2005 using long-range high-frequency radar provides the first evidence for the presence of biweekly (11–14 day) periodic variations of the Kuroshio axis northeast of Taiwan. This analysis clarifies the spatiotemporal characteristics of these variations and reveals that cyclonic/anticyclonic eddies propagating along the shelf slope from the vicinity of the deep channel east of Taiwan induce these variations northeast of Taiwan. The behavior of the cyclonic/anticyclonic eddies on the shelf slope is well explained by 2nd-mode interior shelf waves advected by the Kuroshio's mean flow. Remote effects from the vicinity of the deep channel east of Taiwan, or from outside the East China Sea, are believed to play an important role in the generation of these biweekly periodic variations of the Kuroshio axis northeast of Taiwan. Moreover, on the shelf slope, these variations cause an onshore current across the shelf slope, suggesting topographically controlled upwelling. Therefore, the biweekly periodic variations of the Kuroshio axis northeast of Taiwan might contribute not only to the onshore transport of Kuroshio surface water but also to transport nutrient-rich Kuroshio subsurface water onto the shelf in the East China Sea.     

Transport of oceanic nitrate from the continental shelf to the coastal basin in relation to the path of the Kuroshio

Hydrographic and biogeochemical observations were conducted along the longitudinal section from Ise Bay to the continental margin (southern coast of Japan) to investigate changes according to the Kuroshio path variations during the summer. The strength of the uplift of the cold deep water was influenced by the surface intrusion of the Kuroshio water to the shelf region. When the intrusion of the Kuroshio surface water to the shelf region was weak in 2006, the cold and NO₃⁻-rich shelf water intruded into the bottom layer in the bay from the shelf. This bottom intrusion was intensified by the large river discharge. The nitrogen isotope ratio (δ¹⁵N) of NO₃⁻ (4–5‰) in the bottom bay water was same as that in the deeper NO₃⁻ over the shelf, indicating the supply of new nitrogen to the bay. The warm and NO₃⁻-poor shelf water intruded into the middle layer via the mixing region at the bay mouth when the Kuroshio water distributed in the coastal areas off Ise Bay in 2005. The regenerated NO₃⁻ with isotopically light nitrogen (δ¹⁵N=−1‰) was supplied from the shelf to the bay. This NO₃⁻ is regenerated by the nitrification in the upper layer over the shelf. The contribution rate of regenerated NO₃⁻ over the shelf to the total NO₃⁻ in the subsurface chlorophyll maximum layer in the bay was estimated at 56% by a two-source mixing model coupled with the Rayleigh equation.     

A theoretical model for the intrusion of the Kuroshio across the continental shelf of East China Sea

Here we use a two-layer model to study the dynamics of the intrusion of the Kuroshio onto the continental shelf. Results show that the interaction of the Kuroshio water and shelf water produces a stable upwelling zone above 100 m depth northeast of Taiwan, which provides a dynamical explanation to the presence of the cold core previously observed by satellite. The affected shelf water from the interaction has an onshore portion, which turns right and becomes a northward alongshore flow when it moves closer to shore. This implies that the Kuroshio water cannot penetrate deep onto the inner part of the continental shelf, but it generates a strong northward jet that is formed mainly by the shelf water.     

Reevaluation of mixing among multiple water masses in the shelf: An example from the East China Sea

East China Sea (ECS) is bounded by the continent where the fourth largest river of Changjiang discharges large amounts of freshwater to the west and by the Kuroshio in the East and connected to the South China Sea via Taiwan Strait, therefore water characteristics are very complex and undergo great seasonal changes. The dominant source waters in the ECS are found to be Kuroshio Surface Water (KSW), Kuroshio Sub-surface Water (KSSW), Changjiang Diluted Water (CDW), and Taiwan Strait Warm Water (TSWW). Optimum multiparameter analysis (OMP) using temperature, salinity and ²²⁶Ra were applied to quantify the contribution of individual source water to the surface water of the ECS in summer. The successful application of radium isotope in OMP analysis demonstrates the usefulness of ²²⁶Ra in the discrimination of mixing among multiple water sources. In 1987, one interesting phenomenon was that the KSSW entered the surface with the upwelling at the margin of continental shelf, and affected the coastal water obviously. In 1999, the TSWW extended northward continuously up to the Changjiang Estuary.     

Effect of the mesoscale hydrographic features on larval fish distribution across the shelf break of East China Sea

Surveys of fish larvae and oceanographic conditions were conducted along transects across the shelf break region in the East China Sea (ECS) in May 2001. The objective of this study was to investigate the distribution and assemblages of fish larvae across the shelf break region and their relationships to mesoscale hydrographic features. There was a warm surface streamer from the Kuroshio which extended toward the shelf region of the ECS; concurrently, we observed the intrusion of the less saline shelf water into the subsurface layer towards the offshore. In all 66 taxa (65 families and 1 order) of larvae were collected by oblique net tows using a bongo net, the larval fish density and number of families sampled were lower in the low-temperature area. Based on cluster analysis and environmental factor, two larval fish assemblages were identified: off-shelf/Kuroshio and shelf break. In shelf break assemblage, Auxis spp. and Diaphus spp. were abundant in the warm surface streamer. In contrast, Maurolicus japonicus, Synagrops spp., Bregmaceros sp. and Champsodon spp. were found in the off-shelf region where the offshore intrusion of less-saline water occurred. This different pattern of the horizontal distribution would reflect vertical distribution of the larvae in the water column. Moreover, copepod nauplii density was higher in the upper layer of the shelf region. Thus, dynamic interactions between the Kuroshio and shelf waters at the frontal boundary are concluded to potentially affect larval fish transport and prey availability.     

Impacts of the Kuroshio intrusion on the two eddies in the northern South China Sea in late spring 2016

During mid-May to early June 2016, a cold eddy and a warm eddy were captured on the continental slope of the northern South China Sea by the in situ measurements. A salty lens-shaped water mass in the subsurface layer existed in these two detected eddies, which indicated they had a Kuroshio water origin. The trajectories of the observed eddies from satellite altimeter data show that the cold eddy was generated in the central part of the Luzon Strait, while the warm eddy was formed southwest of Taiwan. The genesis of the cold eddy is related to a weak Kuroshio loop current, while that of the warm eddy is associated with a strong Kuroshio loop current. The warm eddy east of the Luzon Strait may trigger the Kuroshio from a leaping path to a looping path. During the evolution of these detected eddies, they had interactions with the Kuroshio and Luzon Gyre. Energy analysis from ocean reanalysis data showed that the baroclinic conversion between the cold eddy and the Kuroshio was stronger than that between the cold eddy and Luzon Gyre. During the eddy shedding stage, the warm eddy mainly acquired energy from the Kuroshio loop current through the baroclinic conversion.     

Typhoon-induced ocean responses off the southwest coast of Taiwan

Typhoons can cause substantial sea surface cooling (typically 2–4 °C), which is usually biased to the right side of the storm track. Under influence of the complex bathymetry of the southern Taiwan Strait (TS), two types of sea surface temperature (SST) response, cooling and warming, each associated with a different type of typhoon track were identified using satellite and mooring observations. When a typhoon moved westward (or northwestward) and passed through the TS (track A), the SST cooling in the TS was biased toward the left of the storm track. Numerical model results indicated that in track A, strong wind stress accelerates the flow east of the Taiwan Banks and drove the bottom flow to uplift due to the topography. Moreover, both wind stress and wind stress curl enhanced the Luzon loop. After the typhoon passed, the mean circulation was modified around strong cooling in the southern TS, causing more South China Sea surface water to be distributed to the Kuroshio region. However, when a typhoon moved westward (or northwestward) and passed south of the TS, SST warming was induced in the southern TS (track B). The model results indicated that when the typhoon passed to the south of the TS, the typhoon-induced horizontal divergent flow travelled to the north, where it encountered the shallower shelf of the TS that was confined to the water, causing warm water transported into this area to accumulate and downwelling to occur. This can be regarded as redistributing the heat content in the shelf area. After the typhoon, the thickened mixed layer resulting from downwelling prevented the formation of near-inertial waves and reduced the vertical mixing.     

Intra-seasonal variation of the Kuroshio southeast of Taiwan and its possible forcing mechanism

The intra-seasonal variation of the Kuroshio southeast of Taiwan has been studied using satellite data and a numerical model. Superimposed with the main stream of the Kuroshio, two intra-seasonal signals are revealed in the study region. The fluctuation with a period of 1–6 months results from offshore eddies. The westward propagating cyclonic eddies can reduce or reverse the northward flow east of the Kuroshio between 121° and 123° E, but only slightly touch the core velocity of the Kuroshio. The fluctuation with a period of 2–4 weeks is only significant between Taiwan and the Lan-Yu Island (the low-velocity region). Different mechanisms are responsible for the fluctuation in the low-velocity region in different seasons. In winter, the change of negative wind stress curl in the northeastern South China Sea modulates the circulation southeast of Taiwan, while the typhoon-induced intense wind is responsible for the current fluctuation in summer.     

Effects of cyclonic mesoscale eddies on the marine ecosystem in the Kuroshio Extension region using an eddy-resolving coupled physical-biological model

Effects of mesoscale eddies on the marine ecosystem in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region are investigated using an eddy-resolving coupled physical-biological model. The model captures the seasonal and intra-seasonal variability of chlorophyll distribution associated with the mesoscale eddies, front variability, Kuroshio meanders, and upwelling. The model also reproduces the observed interannual variability of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) in the KE region along a zonal band of 32–34°N from 2002 to 2006. The distribution of high surface chlorophyll corresponds to low SSHA. Cyclonic eddies are found to detach from the KE jet near 150°E and 158°E and propagate westward. The westward propagating cyclonic eddies lift the nutrient-rich thermocline into the euphotic zone and maintain high levels of chlorophyll in summer. In the subsurface layer, the pattern in chlorophyll is influenced by both lateral and vertical advection. In winter, convection inside the eddy entrains high levels of nutrients into the mixed layer, increasing production, and resulting in high chlorophyll concentration throughout the surface mixed layer. There is significant interannual variability in both the cyclonic eddy activity and the surface phytoplankton bloom south of the KE jet, although whether or not there is a causal link is unclear.     

Nutrient interleaving below the mixed layer of the Kuroshio Extension Front

Nitrate interleaving structures were observed below the mixed layer during a cruise to the Kuroshio Extension in October 2009. In this paper, we investigate the formation mechanisms for these vertical nitrate anomalies, which may be an important source of nitrate to the oligotrphoc surface waters south of the Kuroshio Extension Front. We found that nitrate concentrations below the main stream of the Kuroshio Extension were elevated compared to the ambient water of the same density (σ _?? = 23.5–25). This appears to be analogous to the “nutrient stream” below the mixed layer, associated with the Gulf Stream. Strong turbulence was observed above the vertical nitrate anomaly, and we found that this can drive a large vertical turbulent nitrate flux \(>\mathcal {O}\) (1 mmol N m^?2 day^?1). A realistic, high-resolution (2 km) numerical simulation reproduces the observed Kuroshio nutrient stream and nitrate interleaving structures, with similar lateral and vertical scales. The model results suggest that the nitrate interleaving structures are first generated at the western side of the meander crest on the south side of the Kuroshio Extension, where the southern tip of the mixed layer front is under frontogenesis. Lagrangian analyses reveal that the vertical shear of geostrophic and subinertial ageostrophic flow below the mixed layer tilts the existing along-isopycnal nitrate gradient of the Kuroshio nutrient stream to form nitrate interleaving structures. This study suggests that the multi-scale combination of (i) the lateral stirring of the Kuroshio nutrient stream by developed mixed layer fronts during fall to winter, (ii) the associated tilting of along-isopycnal nitrate gradient of the nutrient stream by subinertial shear, which forms vertical interleaving structures, and (iii) the strong turbulent diffusion above them, may provide a route to supply nutrients to oligotrophic surface waters on the south side of the Kuroshio Extension.     

Interannual variability of subsurface temperature in summer induced by the Kuroshio over Bungo Channel,Tosa Bay,and Kii Channel,south of Japan

Using historical in situ temperature record, we investigate interannual variability of temperature in summer over Bungo Channel, Tosa Bay, and Kii Channel (hereafter “BTK”), south of Japan. This study aims to reveal the interregional relation of the subsurface temperature variability between the shelf and slope as well as between BTK, and specify the primary cause of the temperature variability in terms of the Kuroshio path. It is shown that 100-m temperature on the slope of BTK is synchronous with each other and highly correlated with coastal sea levels from Kyushu to Kii Peninsula, suggesting that subsurface temperature over the slope varies simultaneously on spatial scales of 400–500 km in the along-slope direction. The 100-m temperature on the slope is also correlated with the near-bottom temperature on the shelf, implying that the near-bottom temperature is determined mainly by the larger-scale variability over the slope. The Kuroshio state in summer of each year is classified into the large meander (LM), non-large meander (NLM), and intermittent larger meander (IM) propagating eastward along the slope. It is found that remarkable temperature increases are accompanied by the IM propagations south of BTK. Temperatures during the IM and LM period are significantly different, the means of which are the highest and lowest, respectively. Temperature during the NLM period with the second highest mean value exhibits the largest variance. Statistical analysis suggests that this variance is related to the Kuroshio axis shift over Izu Ridge between the nearshore and offshore NLM paths.     

The evolution of the Kuroshio Current over the last 5 million years since the Pliocene: Evidence from planktonic foraminiferal faunas

Meridional heat transport of the western Pacific boundary current (the Kuroshio Current) is one of the key factors in global climate change. This current is important because it controls the temperature gradient between low latitudes and the North Pacific and so significantly influences mid-latitude atmosphere-ocean interactions. Here we reconstruct changes in hydrological conditions within the mid-latitude mainstream of the Kuroshio Current based on faunal analysis of planktonic foraminifera in core DSDP 296 from the Northwest Pacific Ocean. This approach enabled us to deduce evolutionary processes within the Kuroshio Current since the Pliocene. A total of 57 species in the coarser section (>150 µim) were identified; results indicate that planktonic foraminiferal faunal evolution has mainly been characterized by three major stages, the first of which comprised mixed-layer warm-water species of Globigerinoides ruber which first appeared between 3.5 and 2.7 Ma and then gradually increased in content. Percentages of another warm-water species of G. conglobatus also gradually increased in number over this interval. Variations in warm-water species indicate a gradual rise in sea surface temperature (SST) and imply initiation of Kuroshio Current impact on the Northwest Pacific Ocean since at least 3.5 Ma. Secondly, over the period between 2.7 and 2.0 Ma, thermocline species of Globigerina calida, Neogloboquadrina humersa, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, and Pulleniatina obliquiloculata started to appear in the section. This fauna was dominated by G. ruber as well as increasing G. conglobatus contents. These features imply a further rise in SST and its gradually enhanced influence on thermocline water, suggesting strengthening of the Kuroshio Current since 2.7 Ma. Thirdly, between 2.0 Ma and present, increasing contents of thermocline species (i.e., G. calida, N. dutertrei and P. obliquiloculata) indicate a gradual rise in seawater temperature at this depth and also imply more intensive Kuroshio Current during this period. On the basis of comparative records from cores ODP 806 and DSDP 292 from the low latitude Western Pacific, we propose that initiation of the impact of the Kuroshio Current in the Northwest Pacific and it subsequent stepwise intensifications since 3.5 Ma can be closely related to the closure and restriction of the Indonesian and Central American seaways as well as variations in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) and equatorial Pacific region.

     

Detailed structure of the Kuroshio frontal eddy along the shelf edge of the East China Sea

The detailed three-dimensional structure of the Kuroshio frontal eddy along the shelf edge of the East China Sea is revealed by the CTD, ADCP, and satellite-tracked drifter observations. The length and width of the cold core of the Kuroshio frontal eddy are about 60 and 40 km, respectively, and its phase speed is about 30 cm s^-1. The calculated buoy tracks with the use of the observed ADCP data well reproduce the observed tracks of satellite-tracked drifters around the frontal eddy. The observed maximum horizontal velocity around this frontal eddy are 40 cm s^-1 and the center of this eddy shifts offshore in the deep layer. Nutrient is advected onshore across the shelf edge by passing of this frontal eddy while it is advected offshore without the frontal eddy at the shelf edge.     

An externally forced barotropic circulation model for the New York Bight

The sea level and the barotropic, frictional circulation response for the New York Bight are used to demonstrate the effects of external sea-level forcing, bathymetry, and variable friction. The governing equation is the steady, integrated vorticity equation and is computed by finite differencing over a curvilinear grid conforming to the 10- and 100-m isobaths and extending for 250 km alongshore. The boundary conditions are based on the hypothesis that the dynamics of the shelf are driven by the external sea-level gradient and the coastal no-flux condition; and consequently the conditions at the lateral boundaries are dependent thereon. Therefore, the external sea-level slope must be independently specified, and the lateral boundary conditions must be dependently generated. The diabathic component of the external sea slope forces the calm wind circulation by its effect on the transport through the upstream boundary; and the parabathic component has also an important modifying effect by forcing a shelf convergent transport. The parabathic sea slope at the coast is independent of its offshore value, being instead a direct product of the coastal boundary condition.The bottom friction is expressed as related to the sea level through a bottom length parameter and a veer angle, both of which are taken to increase shoreward. An additional bottom stress component, related to the surface stress, is determined for bottom depths less than the Ekman depth. Such bottom stress variability produces significant alterations in the nearshore flow field, over the constant bottom stress formulation, by reducing it and causing it to veer downgradient and downwind in the nearshore.The model is forced by different wind directions and the results are discussed. The circulations generally conform to the observed mean flow patterns, but with several smaller-scale features. The strong bathymetric feature of the Hudson Shelf Valley causes a polarized up- and downvalley flow for winds with an eastward or westward component, respectively. Under mean westerly winds, there is a divergence in the shelf valley flow at about the 60-m isobath. The Apex gyre existing off the western tip of Long Island becomes more extensive for winds changing from northeast to southwest. Mean flow reversals (to the northeast) occur off both Long Island and New Jersey for wind directions changing counterclockwise from northwest to southeast and from west to east, respectively. Southeastward transport over the outer New Jersey shelf tends to be enhanced by wind and external sea-level conditions; and the transport over the New Jersey midshelf, particularly in the lee of the shelf valley, tends to be weak and variable also under these mean conditions.     

Why does the Kuroshio northeast of Taiwan shift shelfward in winter?

Observations indicate that off the northeastern coast of Taiwan a branch of the Kuroshio intrudes farther northward in winter onto the shelf of the East China Sea. We demonstrate that this seasonal shift can be explained solely by winter cooling. Cooling produces downslope flux of dense shelf water that is compensated by shelfward intrusion. Parabathic isopycnals steepen eastward in winter and couple with the cross-shelf topographic slope (the “JEBAR” effect) to balance the enhanced intrusion. The downslope flow also increases vortex stretching and decreases the thickness of the inertial boundary layer, resulting in a Kuroshio that shifts closer to the shelf break.     

Nitrogen isotope ratios of nitrate as a clue to the origin of nitrogen on the Pacific coast of Japan

To clarify the sources and transformation of NO₃⁻ on the Pacific coast of Japan, observations over the continental shelf were conducted during the summer in 2005 and 2006 when the Kuroshio flowed close to and away from the coastal area, respectively. Below the halocline, there are two prominent salinity peaks that originated in two different waters. In the subsurface layer, the salinity maximum (S_max) was indicative of the Kuroshio Water (KW), while the salinity minimum (S_min) in the middle layer at ∼400 m depth was indicative of the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW). δ¹⁵N_NO3 ranged from 4.1‰ to 5.1‰ with a mean of 4.8±0.4‰ in the deeper water around S_min. Below 50 m depth over the shelf break, δ¹⁵N_NO3 values (3.1±0.8‰ in 2005 and 4.6±0.3‰ in 2006) clearly increased as contribution of NPIW increased in 2006. On the contrary, subsurface δ¹⁵N of NO₃⁻ values (−1.1±0.1‰) remained unchanged in both years, although the contribution of the KW to the subsurface water changed significantly. This suggests that the source of NO₃⁻ has little effect on the δ¹⁵N of NO₃⁻ in this layer. The negative δ¹⁵N values also coincided with the base of the chlorophyll maximum layer suggesting that these isotopic signals must be evidence of active nitrification in the upper layer.     

The intrinsic nonlinear multiscale interactions among the mean flow,low frequency variability and mesoscale eddies in the Kuroshio region

Using a new functional analysis tool, multiscale window transform(MWT), and the MWT-based localized multiscale energetics analysis and canonical transfer theory, this study reconstructs the Kuroshio system on three scale windows, namely,the mean flow window, the interannual-scale(low-frequency) window, and the transient eddy window, and investigates the climatological characteristics of the intricate nonlinear interactions among these windows. Significant upscale energy transfer is observed east of Taiwan, where the mean Kuroshio current extracts kinetic energy from both the interannual and eddy windows.It is found that the canonical transfer from the interannual variability is an intrinsic source that drives the eddy activities in this region. The multiscale variabilities of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea(ECS) are mainly controlled by the interaction between the mean flow and the eddies.The mean flow undergoes mixed instabilities(i.e., both barotropic and baroclinic instabilities) in the southern ECS, while it is barotropically stable but baroclinically unstable to the north. The multiscale interactions are found to be most intense south of Japan, where strong mixed instabilities occur; both the canonical transfers from the mean flow and the interannual scale are important mechanisms to fuel the eddies. It is also found that the interannual-scale energy mainly comes from the barotropically unstable jet, rather than the upscale energy transfer from the high frequency eddies.     

Short-range prediction experiments of the Kuroshio path variabilities south of Japan

Assimilation and prediction experiments of the Kuroshio path variability south of Japan were conducted to investigate the predictability of the Kuroshio path. The assimilation and prediction system is composed of an eddy-resolving model and a three-dimensional variational analysis scheme with vertical coupled temperature–salinity empirical orthogonal function modes. The sea surface height (SSH) variability and the variations of the Kuroshio path of the assimilation fields are in good agreement with those observed. The results of the assimilation are then used as the initial conditions for 138 cases of 90-day prediction experiments conducted from 1993 to 2004. The predictive limit of our system is assessed by the SSH anomaly in the assimilation field and is found to be around 40–60 days, which is much longer than that of the persistence. The prediction results show good performance in the transition stage from a straight to a meandering path. For example, a large meandering event that occurred in August 2004 is successfully predicted in a 2-month forecast. Two types of failure cases are investigated. One is a case where the eastward propagation speed of the meander is faster than a real state. The dynamical response of the model to the assimilation revealed that an initial shock, caused by the dynamically unbalanced initial condition, induces the fast eastward propagation of the meander. The other case exhibits an unrealistic meander. In this case, a cold anomaly at an intermediate layer in the initial condition grows rapidly and results in the unrealistic meander. This implies that the Kuroshio path south of Japan has a chaotic nature. These facts revealed by the failure cases give us some insight for improving the predictive skill of the Kuroshio path variability.