基于小波变换和LSTM神经网络的格陵兰岛近海海域海平面变化预测

海平面变化包含多种不同时间尺度信息，传统的预测方法仅对海平面变化趋势项、周期项进行拟合，难以利用海平面变化的不同时间尺度信号，使得预测精度不高。本文基于深度学习的预测模型，提出一种融合小波变换（wavelet transform，WT）与LSTM （long short-term memory，LSTM）神经网络的海平面异常组合预测模型。首先利用小波分解得到反映海平面变化总体趋势的低频分量和刻画主要细节信息的高频分量；然后通过LSTM神经网络对代表不同时间尺度的各个分量预测和重构，实现海平面变化的非线性预测。基于该模型的海平面变化预测的均方根误差、平均绝对误差和相关系数分别为12.76 mm、9.94 mm和0.937，预测精度均优于LSTM和EEMD-LSTM预测模型，WT-LSTM组合模型对区域海平面变化预测具有较好的应用价值。     

基于海洋气候数据集的区域海平面变化非线性预测

本文基于中国首套长时间序列、高精度、高时空一致性的全球海洋气候数据集产品, 利用1993年1月至2015年12月的山东半岛近海海平面异常数据, 构建了基于集合经验模式分解(EEMD)和长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)的海平面非线性变化组合预测模型。EEMD可以得到海平面异常的各周期项、线性趋势及残差部分, LSTM模型可对其进行逐个预测并重构得到最终的海平面异常预测结果。EEMD-LSTM组合模型海平面异常预测的均方根误差仅为25.87 mm, 取得了令人满意的效果。基于该组合模型预测2016-2025年山东半岛近海海平面上升速率将达到3.54 mm·a^-1。     

利用TOPEX/Poseidon卫星高度计资料提取黄海、东海潮汐信息的研究

为了更好地利用卫星测高数据分析黄海和东海的潮汐特性 ,对 1 993— 1 999年期间的TOPEX/Poseidon测高数据进行了质量控制和共线平差处理。在此基础上 ,在黄海、东海选取了 1 738个测高点 ,用最小二乘拟合法计算出 1 2个分潮的调和常数。计算得出的M2 和m1分潮的调和常数 ,在交叉点评估的内符精度振幅分别为 2 4cm和 0 8cm ,迟角分别为 2 3°和2 5°。测高点与附近验潮站的这两个分潮结果相比 ,振幅的均方根误差小于 4cm ,而迟角相差较大。这可能与验潮站的地理环境因素有关。用卫星测高数据算得的调和常数绘制的主要分潮特性图与现有常规观测得到的相应图进行了比较 ,在外海深水区两者符合较好 ;近岸由于卫星测高误差较大 ,所以两者符合差。     

一种改进的VMD-XGBoost验潮站月海面高序列预测模型

海平面不断上升威胁人类的生命安全,高精度的海平面预测对人类预防水文灾害具有重要意义。现有的预测方法因验潮站数据为单一时间序列而难以进行高精度预测。针对此问题,提出一种融合变分模态分解(VMD)和极度梯度提升算法(XGBoost)的变分模态分解-极度梯度提升预测模型,简称VMD-XGBoost模型。与XGBoost模型、卷积神经网络与长短期记忆神经网络混合模型(CNN-LSTM)、变分模态-卷积神经网络与长短期记忆神经网络混合模型(VMD-CNN-LSTM)对比,对荷兰沿岸海平面验潮站时间序列进行预测。验潮站预测结果分析表明：相较于XGBoost模型,VMD-XGBoost模型预测结果的均方根误差平均降低65.43%,平均绝对误差平均降低63.79%,平均绝对百分比误差平均降低63.44%,且相较于VMD-CNN-LSTM模型,VMD-XGBoost模型在验潮站海面高序列预测上具有更高预测精度,可实现高精度验潮站时间序列预测。     

1993—2001年全球海面高度变化特征

应用TOPEX／POSEIDON（T／P）卫星高度计测高资料，对全球海洋的海面变化特征进行了分析，结果表明，1993年1月－2001年6月期间，全球海平面呈现上升的态势；全球平均海平面高度的平均上升速率约为1．2mm/a；海温的变化是引起海平面变化的重要原因，便其对海平面抬升的贡献不到50％。海平面的变化具有很强的地域特征。海平面变化的空间分布特征受风应力异常特别是纬向风应力异常的空间分布影响较大。     

2004年苏门答腊地震前后海面高趋势的变化

利用苏门答腊附近海域T/P、Jason-1测高卫星近20年的海面高连续观测资料,分别计算了该区域(80°E~105°E,5°S~20°N)在2004年苏门答腊大地震前后的海面高变化趋势,并与该区域对应时间段GRACE重力卫星反演的地表质量迁移结果进行比较。研究结果表明,由卫星测高观测资料估算的震区地震前后海平面趋势的变化与卫星重力反演结果基本一致。由于卫星测高沿轨观测具有高精度、高时空分辨率的特性,卫星测高资料估算的海平面趋势变化可以更为准确地反映震区海平面变化的局部特征。还对该区域震后形变特征进行了初步分析。     

HY-2卫星精密轨道拟合与外推的两种方法比较

分别采用切比雪夫曲线和最小二乘曲线拟合HY-2(海洋二号)卫星精密轨道,并进一步解算速度场与预报轨道。结果表明:最小二乘曲线拟合结果明显优于切比雪夫曲线拟合结果,拟合轨道精度为1～2cm,拟合速度场精度为1～2cm/s,且可以进行轨道短期预报,预报轨道精度与拟合轨道精度相当。     

Jason-2卫星波形重跟踪算法比较

为弥补测高数据在近海区域因为编辑准则被剔除而导致近海测量数据质量不高的缺点,利用5参数模型的两种形式和Ice-2模型对Jason-2卫星在中国南海部分海域的海洋回波波形进行了波形重跟踪的研究,并选择20个海洋回波波形,依据最小二乘原理进行计算、分析、对比,发现5参数模型的指数形式的结果和Ice-2模型结果非常接近。研究结果表明,在开阔的海域,对Jason-2波形进行3种方法波形重跟踪时,可以优先考虑Ice-2模型。波形重跟踪技术能够提高卫星测高数据利用率,为科学研究提供可靠的数据保障。     

利用多代卫星测高数据计算中国近海及邻域重力异常

为提高海洋重力场数据的精度和空间分辨率,联合Jason-1/2、T/P、Envisat、ERS-1/2、Geosat等多代卫星测高数据计算中国近海及邻域(0°~42°N,100°~140°E)2′×2′重力异常。对卫星测高数据分别进行共线处理和自交叉点平差,并以T/P卫星测高数据为基准进行多星数据联合平差,有效削弱了卫星测高数据的时变影响和不协调性;利用逆Vening-Meinesz公式计算重力异常,与船测重力相比,均方根误差为5.4 mgal。结果表明,通过引入高精度的卫星测高数据,结合多项平差处理手段,提高了海洋重力异常的计算精度。     

中国近海海平面变化区域相关分析

由测高卫星升、降弧段海面高交叉点约束方法,用TOPEX／POSEIDON测高数据计算了黄海、东海、南海海域的海平面变化;分析了三个海区海平面变化的相关性;在频域内讨论了它们之间的相干性;分析了海水面积随纬度带的变化对不同纬度分布的海区海平面变化量的影响。     

Microbial Biomass and Organic Nutrients in the Deep-Sea Sediments of the Central Indian Ocean Basin

In order to assess the impact of deep-sea mining on the in situ benthic life, we measured the microbial standing stock and concentration of organic nutrients in the deep-sea sediments of the Central Indian Ocean Basin in the Indian pioneer area. Sediments were collected using box core and grab samples during September 1996. The total bacterial numbers ranged from 10 10 -10 11 cells per g -1 dry weight sediment. There was a marginal decrease in the number of bacteria from surface to 30 cm depth, though the subsurface section registered a higher number than did the surface. The highest numbers were encountered at depths of 4-8 cm. The retrievable number of bacteria were two orders less in comparison with the direct total counts of bacteria. An almost homogeneous distribution of bacteria, total organic carbon, living biomass, and lipids throughout the depth of cores indicates active microbial and benthic processes in the deep sea sediments. On the other hand, a uniform distribution of total counts of bacteria, carbohydrates, and total organic carbon in all the cores indicates their stable nature and suggests that they can serve as useful parameters for long-term monitoring of the area after the benthic disturbance. Further studies on temporal variability in this region would not only verify the observed norms of distribution of these variables but would also help to understand restabilization processes after the simulated benthic disturbance.     

Assessing the Validity of Seismo-Acoustic Predictor Equations for Obtaining Seabed and Sub-Surface Sediment Physical Properties

The interdependence between the seismo-acoustic properties of a marine sediment and its geotechnical/physical parameters has been known for many years, and it has been postulated that this should allow the extraction of geotechnical information from seismic data. Though in the literature many correlations have been published for the surficial layer, there is a lack of information for greater sediment depths. In this article, a desktop study on a synthetic seafloor model illustrates how the application of published near-surface prediction equations to subsurface sediments (up to several tens of meters burial depth) can lead to spurious predictions. To test this further, acoustic and geotechnical properties were measured on a number of sediment core samples, some of which were subjected to loading in acoustically-equipped consolidation cells (oedometers) to simulate greater burial depth conditions. For low effective pressures (representing small burial depths extending to around 10 meters subsurface), the general applicability of established relationships was confirmed: the prediction of porosity, bulk density, and mean grain size from acoustic velocity and impedance appears generally possible for the investigated sedimentary environments. As effective pressure increases through, the observed relationships deviate more and more from the established ones for the near-surface area. For the samples tested in this study, in some instances increasing pressure even resulted in decreasing velocities. There are several possible explanations for this abnormal behavior, including the presence of gas, overconsolidation, or bimodal grain size distribution. The results indicate that an appropriate depth correction must be introduced into the published prediction equations in order to obtain reliable estimates of physical sediment properties for greater subsurface depths.     

A Review of Some Environmental Issues Affecting Marine Mining

This article reviews information recently available from existing marine and coastal mining for responses to environmental issues affecting marine mining at different depths. It is particularly but not exclusively concerned with those issues affecting seabed biodiversity impact and recovery. Much information has been gathered in the past 10 years from shallow mining operations for construction aggregate, diamonds, and gold, from coastal mines discharging tailings to shallow and deep water, and from experimental deep mining tests. The responses to issues identified are summarized in a series of eight tables intended to facilitate site-specific consideration. Since impacts can spread widely in the surface mixing layer SML, and can affect the biologically productive euphotic zone, the main issues considered arise from the depth of mining relative to the SML of the sea. Where mining is below the SML, the issue is whether it is environmentally better to bring the extraction products to the surface vessel for processing (and waste discharge), or to process the extraction products as much as possible on the seabed. Responses to the issues need to be sitespecific, and dependent on adequate preoperational environmental impact and recovery prediction. For deep tailings disposal from a surface vessel, there are four important environmental unknowns: (1) the possible growth of "marine snow" (bacterial flocs) utilizing the enormous quantities of fine tailings particles (hundreds or thousands of metric tons per day) as nuclei for growth, (2) the possibility that local keystone plankton and nekton species may migrate diurnally down to and beyond the depth of deep discharge and hence be subjected to tailings impact at depth, (3) the burrow-up capability of deep benthos and their ability to survive high rates of tailings deposition, and (4) the pattern and rate of dispersion of a tailings density current through the deep water column from discharge point to seabed. Actions to obtain relevant information in general and site-specifically are suggested.     

Increased Particle Fluxes at the INDEX Site Attributable to Simulated Benthic Disturbance

Particle fluxes were measured 7 m above the sea bottom during the predisturbance, disturbance, and postdisturbance periods by using time series sediment traps attached to seven deep-sea moorings deployed in the INDEX experiment site in the Central Indian Basin. The predisturbance particle fluxes varied between 22.3 to 55.1 mg m -2 day -1 . Increased and variable particle fluxes were recorded by the sediment traps during the disturbance period. The increase observed was 0.5 to 4 times more than the background predisturbance fluxes. The increases in particle fluxes (~4 times) recorded by the sediment trap located in the southwestern direction (DMS-1) were the greatest, which could be the result of preferential movement of resuspended particles generated during the deep-sea benthic disturbance along the general current direction prevailing in this area during the experimental period. Also, the traps located closer to the disturbance area recorded greater fluxes than did the traps far away, across the Deep Sea Sediment Resuspension System path. This variability in recorded particle fluxes by the traps around the disturbance area clearly indicates that physical characteristics such as grain size and density of the resuspended particles produced during the disturbance had an important effect on particle movement. The postdisturbance measurements during ~5 days showed a reduction in particle fluxes of ~50%, indicating rapid particle settlement.     

海上大直径钢管桩打桩过程中桩周土强度弱化研究

海上大直径钢管桩打桩过程中,桩周土体受到强烈扰动而发生强度弱化,掌握桩周土体强度弱化规律对于准确预测打桩过程、保证工程安全具有重要意义。为研究土体强度弱化规律,开展了环剪试验模拟打桩对桩周土体的扰动,测试土体强度随剪切速率的变化规律,建立了描述土体强度弱化规律的拟合公式,引入到打桩分析软件中。研究结果表明：土体的强度折减程度不仅与土体本身的性质有关还受到土体的埋深和剪切速率的影响,埋深越深土体强度折减程度越低,剪切速率越高土体强度折减越高,在打桩分析中可采用这里推荐的线性折减方法来模拟不同深度处土体强度的折减规律。     

Geoacoustic Inversion via Genetic Algorithm and Its Application to Manganese Sediment Identification

An acoustic inversion method using a wide-band signal and two near field receivers is proposed and applied to multiple layered seabed models including a manganese sediment. The inversion problem can be formulated into a probabilistic model comprised of signals, a forward model, and additive noise. The forward model simulates wide-band signals, such as chirp signals, and is chosen to be the source-waveletconvolution plane wave modeling method. The wavelet matching technique, using weighted least-squares fitting, estimates the sediment sound-speed and thickness on which determination of the possible numerical ranges for a priori uniform distribution is based. The genetic algorithm is applied to a global optimization problem to find a maximum a posteriori solution for determined a priori search space. Here the object function is defined by an L 2 norm of the difference between measured and modeled signals. Not only the marginal pdf but also its statistics are calculated by numerical evaluation of integrals using the samples selected during importance sampling process of the genetic algorithm.     

Determination of In Situ Sediment Shear Strength from Advanced Piston Corer Pullout Forces

The advanced piston corer (APC) has been used by the Ocean Drilling Program since 1985 for recovering soft sediments from the ocean floor. The pullout force measured on extracting the core barrel from the sediment is shown to correlate with the average shear strength of the sediment core measured in the ship's laboratory. A simple rule of thumb is derived relating the shear strength of the sediment to the pullout force. Multiple APC holes at individual sites allow the consistency of the pullout measurements to be assessed. The effects of different operational procedures during APC coring are also explored. Although generally applicable, the correlation between pullout force and laboratory measurements of shear strength breaks down for some APC holes, possibly because of the disturbance of some sediment types during the APC coring process. A better understanding of the physical process of APC coring, and its effect on the properties of the sediment both inside and immediately outside the core barrel, would indicate what confidence can be put on the measurement of pullout force as a way of evaluating the in situ shear strength of deep sea sediments.     

Interannual Sea Level Variations and Annual Tides in the Northwestern Pacific

Specific properties of the interannual sea level variations and annual tides in the Northwestern Pacific were studied. Several tide stations were monitored. The monthly mean sea level for the year of 1995 was analyzed at each tide station. A seismic event in 1995, some tectonic activity around the subject area, and the Kuroshio (the oceanic western boundary current) may possibly contaminate results which would have occurred from the astronomical annual tide alone.     

Flow Cytometric Analysis of Coastal Lagoon Bacterioplankton and Picophytoplankton: Fixation and Storage Effects

The effect of different fixation and storage protocols on the flow cytometric (FCM) simultaneous analysis of bacterioplankton and phytoplankton in coastal seawater samples (Mediterranean coastal lagoons) was investigated. FCM measurements (cell number, fluorescence and scatter characteristics) were obtained through DAPI staining. Three fixatives [glutaraldehyde (GA), formaldehyde (FA) and paraformaldehyde (PFA)] and two storage (3 months duration) methods (5 °C and −196 °C) were tested. Two dominant populations were detected in studied samples: bacteria and eukaryotic picophytoplankton. Adding fixatives (2% final concentration) appears necessary to obtain FCM exhaustive counts of all the bacteria and phytoplanktonic cells. This was related to the permeation effect of fixatives which allowed a better DAPI staining of the cells. Maximum fluorescence, i.e. optimal staining of the cells was obtained with FA or PFA, and significant lower fluorescences with GA. Fixed samples stored at 5 °C induced rapid cell loss. Only storage in liquid nitrogen of samples fixed with FA or PFA, allows mid-term (≥4 months) preservation of bacteria or picophytoplankton cell numbers, and limited evolution of DAPI-induced fluorescence and scatter characteristics.