Variations in the abundance of fisheries resources and ecosystem structure in the Japan/East Sea

Evidence supports the hypothesis that two climatic regime shifts in the North Pacific and the Japan/East Sea, have affected the dynamics of the marine ecosystem and fisheries resources from 1960 to 2000. Changes in both mixed layer depth (MLD) and primary production were detected in the Japan/East Sea after 1976. The 1976 regime shift appears to have caused the biomass replacement with changes in catch production of major exploited fisheries resources, including Pacific saury, Pacific sardine and filefish. Both fisheries yield and fish distribution are reflected in these decadal fluctuations. In the 1960s and 1990s, common squid dominated the catches whereas in the 1970s and 1980s, it was replaced by walleye pollock. In the post-1988 regime shift, the distribution of horse mackerel shifted westward and southward and its distributional overlap with common mackerel decreased. The habitat of Pacific sardine also shifted away from mackerel habitats during this period. To evaluate changes in the organization and structure of the ecosystem in the Japan/East Sea, a mass-balanced model, Ecopath, was employed. Based on two mass-balanced models, representing before (1970–75) and after (1978–84) the 1976 regime shift, the weighted mean trophic level of catch increased from 3.09 before to 3.28 after. Total biomass of species groups in the Japan/East Sea ecosystem increased by 15% and total catch production increased by 48% due to the 1976 regime shift. The largest changes occurred at mid-trophic levels, occupied by fishes and cephalopods. The dominant predatory species shifted from cephalopods to walleye pollock due to the 1976 regime shift. It is concluded that the climatic regime shifts caused changes in the structure of the ecosystem and the roles of major species, as well as, large variations in biomass and production of fisheries resources.     

Comparing trophic flows in the southern Benguela to those in other upwelling ecosystems

A balanced trophic flow model of the southern Benguela ecosystem is presented, averaging the period 1980–1989 and emphasizing upper trophic levels. The model is based largely on studies conducted within the framework of the Benguela Ecology Programme and updates the results of an expert workshop held in Cape Town in September 1989. Small pelagic fish other than anchovy Engraulis capensis and sardine Sardinops sagax, mainly round herring Etrumeus whiteheadi and mesopelagic fish, were important components of the food web in the southern Benguela. Severe balancing difficulties were encountered with respect to the semi-pelagic resources (hake Merluccius spp.) and demersal top predators (sharks), indicating the need for further research on the interaction of these groups with their ecosystem. The model is compared to other existing trophic flow models of ecosystems in major upwelling areas, i.e. the northern Humboldt Current (4–14°S), the California Current (28–42°N) and the southern Canary Current (l2–25°N), and to two independently constructed models of the northern Benguela ecosystem. These models are compared using network analysis routines of the ECOPATH software, focusing on the interactions between the five dominant fish species (anchovy, sardine, horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus capensis, chub mackerel Scomber japonicus and hake) that support important fisheries in all systems. The upwelling systems rank by size rather than species dominance. The ratio of catches and primary production differs between systems, partly because of differences in fishing regimes. Predation on the five dominant fish groups by other fish in the system was the most important cause of fish mortality in all models. Fishery catches are generally a larger cause of mortality for these groups than predation by mammals. The ecological cost of fishing appears to be comparatively low in the southern Benguela, because catches are low compared with the primary production, but also because the fishery is relatively low in the foodweb. However, in view of the very tight foodweb demonstrated in the model. it is likely that an increase in fishing pressure would cause severe trade-offs with respect to other components of the southern Benguela ecosystem.     

Application of the sequential t-test algorithm for analysing regime shifts to the southern Benguela ecosystem

Long-term ecosystem changes, such as regime shifts, have occurred in several marine ecosystems world-wide. Multivariate statistical methods have been used to detect such changes. A new method known as the sequential t-test algorithm for analysing regime shifts (STARS) is applied to a set of biological state variables as well as environmental and anthropogenic forcing variables in the southern Benguela. The method is able to correct for auto-correlation within time-series by a process known as prewhitening. All variables were tested with and without prewhitening. Shifts that were detected with both methods were termed robust. The STARS method detected shifts in relatively short time-series and identified when these shifts occurred without a priori hypotheses. Shifts were generally well detected at the end of time-series, but further development of the method is needed to enhance its performance for auto-correlated time-series. Since 1950, two major long-term ecosystem changes were identified for the southern Benguela. The first change occurred during the 1960s, caused predominantly by heavy fishing pressure but with some environmental forcing. The second change occurred in the early 2000s, caused mainly by environmental forcing. To strengthen these findings, further analyses should be carried out using different methods.     

A comparison of condition factor and gonadosomatic index of sardine Sardinops sagax stocks in the northern and southern Benguela upwelling ecosystems, 1984–1999

Time-series of condition factor (CF) and gonadosomatic index (GSI) were generated using general linear models (GLM) for sardine Sardinops sagax stocks in the northern and southern Benguela ecosystems over the period 1984–1999. During this period the biomass of sardine in the northern Benguela remained at relatively low levels of <500 000 tons, whereas that of southern Benguela sardine increased 40-fold to 1.3 million tons. The GLMs explained 27 and 45% of the observed variation in CF, and 32 and 28% of the observed variation in GSI, for sardine in the northern and southern Benguela subsystems respectively. Whereas the sardine CF in the northern Benguela remained stable over time, that for the southern Benguela stock declined steadily during the study period. Sardine CF showed a seasonal cycle in the southern but not in the northern Benguela. Time-series of GSI showed high interannual variability but no trends in either subsystem, and the seasonal pattern was similar for both stocks. The lack of coherence between the CF time-series for sardine in the two subsystems further suggests that sardine stocks in the northern and southern Benguela subsystems are independent.     

Climatic regime shifts and their impacts on marine ecosystem and fisheries resources in Korean waters

There were climatic regime shifts over the North Pacific in 1976 and 1988 which affected the dynamics of the marine ecosystem and fisheries resources in Korean waters. Precipitation in Korean waters showed a decadal scale climatic jump, especially of Ullungdo Island, reflecting the regime shift that occurred in the North Pacific. The variation was also detected in East Asian atmospheric systems. The Aleutian Low and North Pacific High Pressure Systems showed substantial changes in 1976 and around 1987–89. 1976 was an unusually warm year for Korea; mean sea surface temperature (SST) was higher than ‘normal’ and was accompanied by a northward shift in the thermal front. Post 1976, the volume transport of the Kuroshio Current increased and higher seawater and air temperatures persisted until 1988. Other shifts occurred after 1976 such as an increase in mixed layer depth (MLD) and biological changes in the ecosystem of Korean waters including decreases in spring primary production and an increase in autumn primary production. Primary production increased again after 1988, and was followed by a significant increase in zooplankton biomass after 1991. The 1976 regime shift was manifested by a decreased biomass and production of saury, but an increase in biomass and production of sardine and filefish in Korean waters. After 1988, recruitment, biomass, and production of sardine collapsed while those of mackerel substantially increased. Based on these observations, hypotheses on the relationship between the climate-driven oceanic changes and changes in fisheries resources were developed and are discussed.     

Abundance and Distribution Patterns of Nekton and Micronekton in the Northern California Current Transition Zone

The epipelagic and mesopelagic nekton communities of the northern California Current have been sampled somewhat continuously over the last four decades with bottom and pelagic trawls, small midwater trawls, and purse seines. We review the zoogeography and community and environmental associations of the dominant pelagic micronekton and nekton species in this region with a view to understanding their role in this dynamic marine ecosystem. As is typical of many upwelling eastern boundary current regions, the pelagic biomass is dominated by a few species that fluctuate dramatically through time. The abundance trends of pelagic nekton caught in this region demonstrated large-scale ecosystem changes about the time of the regime shifts of 1976/77 and 1989 and possibly another beginning in 1999. The rapidity of the changes in composition indicates that the response was due to a change in migration or distribution patterns as opposed to recruitment patterns. The 1989 regime shift led to a dramatic increase in sardine and a decrease in anchovy populations. The most pronounced interannual signals were attributed to strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in 1983 and 1998 that altered the latitudinal ranges and proximity to the coast of many pelagic species. Variations in abundance and cross-shelf distribution patterns were noted for both pelegic nekton and micronektonic from surveys off California, Oregon, and Washington.     

Estimates of phytoplankton and bacterial biomass and production in the northern and southern Benguela ecosystems

Available data on phytoplankton and bacterial abundance and production off the coasts of southern Africa (to the 500 m depth contour) have been assembled and analysed for a network analysis of carbon flow in the Benguela ecosystem. Phytoplankton carbon biomass (from measurements of chlorophyll a) in the northern Benguela (2 558 300 tons) was considerably higher than in the southern Benguela (671 420 and 516 400 tons for the West and South coasts respectively). However, overall annual production (from C¹⁴-uptake measurements) was similar, 77 416 608, 76 399 973 and 78 988 020 tons C·year^?1 respectively. Phytoplankton respiration and sedimentation losses were calculated as functions of primary production and therefore followed similar trends. From the most conservative estimates (mean bacterial biomass of 10 mg C·m^?3 and average P:B of 0,2·day^?1) bacterial biomass is 2–7 per cent of phytoplankton biomass in the northern and southern Benguela, and bacterial production is 3–5 per cent of primary production. Assuming a net growth yield of 30 per cent, bacteria would need to consume 9–15 per cent of the total primary production in order to meet their requirements for carbon consumption. Calculations based on a mean bacterial biomass of 40 mg C·m^?3 and a mean growth rate of 0,5·day^?1 in the upper 30 m of the water column show bacterial biomass to be 8–27 per cent of phytoplankton biomass and bacterial production to be 26–44 per cent of phytoplankton production. Bacterial carbon consumption requirements at these rates amount to 86–147 per cent of total primary production.     

Contrast in life histories of exploited fishes and ecosystem structures in coastal waters off west Canada and east Korea

By reviewing the history of fishery exploitation in the coastal waters of west Canada and east Korea, related with contrasting life history strategies of the dominant species, the fishery management challenges that each country would face in the upcoming decades were outlined. In the ecosystem of the Canadian western coastal waters, the dominant oceanographic feature is the coastal upwelling domain off the west coast of Vancouver Island, the northernmost extent of the California Current System in the eastern North Pacific. In the marine ecosystem of the eastern coasts of Korea (the Japan/East Sea), a major oceanographic feature is the Tsushima Warm Current, a branch of the Kuroshio Current in the western North Pacific. Fishes in the Canadian ecosystem are dominated by demersal, long-lived species such as flatfish, rockfish, sablefish, and halibut. During summer, migratory pelagic species such as Pacific hake, Pacific salmon, and recently Pacific sardine, move into this area to feed. In the late 1970s, Canada declared jurisdiction for 200 miles from their coastline, and major fisheries species in Canadian waters have been managed with a quota system. The overall fishing intensity off the west coast of Vancouver Island has been relatively moderate compared to Korean waters. Fishes in the ecosystem of the eastern Korean waters are dominated by short-lived pelagic and demersal fish. Historically, Korea has shared marine resources in this area with neighbouring countries, but stock assessments and quotas have only recently (since the late-1990s) been implemented for some major species. In the Korean ecosystem, fisheries can be described as intensive, and many stocks have been rated as overfished. The two ecosystems responded differently to climate impacts such as regime shifts under different exploitation histories. In the future, both countries will face the challenge of global warming and subsequent impacts on ecosystems, necessitating developing adaptive fisheries management plans. The challenges will be contrasting for the two countries: Canada will need to conserve fish populations, while Korea will need to focus on rebuilding depleted fish populations.     

Climate variability and its effects on major fisheries in Korea

Understanding in climate effects on marine ecosystem is essential to utilize, predict, and conserve marine living resources in the 21s t century. In this review paper, we summariz ed t h e past history and current status of Korean fisheries as well as the changes in climate and oceanographic phenomena since the 1960s. Ocean ecosystems in Korean waters can be divided into three, based on the marine commercial fish catches; the demersal ecosystem in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea, the pelagic ecosystem in the Tsushima Warm Current from the East China Sea to the East/Japan Sea, and the demersal ecosystem in the northern part of the East/Japan Sea. Through the interdisciplinary retrospective analysis using available fisheries, oceanographic, and meteorological information in three important fish communities, the trend patterns in major commercial catches and the relationship between climate/ environmental variability and responses of fish populations were identified. Much evidence revealed that marine ecosystems, including the fish community in Korean waters, has been seriously affected by oceanographic changes, and each species has responded differently. In general, species diversity is lessening, and mean trophic level of each ecosystem has decreased during the last 3~4 decades. Future changes in fisheries due to global warming are also considered for major fisheries and aquaculture in Korean waters.     

The Bering Sea—A dynamic food web perspective

The Bering Sea is a high-latitude, semi-enclosed sea that supports extensive fish, seabird, marine mammal, and invertebrate populations and some of the world's most productive fisheries. The region consists of several distinct biomes that have undergone wide-scale population variation, in part due to fisheries, but also in part due to the effects of interannual and decadal-scale climatic variation. While recent decades of ocean observation have highlighted possible links between climate and species fluctuations, mechanisms linking climate and population fluctuations are only beginning to be understood. Here, we examine the food webs of Bering Sea ecosystems with particular reference to some key shifts in widely distributed, abundant fish populations and their links with climate variation. Both climate variability and fisheries have substantially altered the Bering Sea ecosystem in the past, but their relative importance in shaping the current ecosystem state remains uncertain.     

St Helena Bay (southern Benguela) then and now: muted climate signals,large human impact

The development of suitable reference states for ecosystem-based management requires documentation of changes in structure and functioning of marine ecosystems, including assessment of the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down processes as drivers of change. We used monitoring data available from St Helena Bay, the most productive bay and an important nursery area situated on the west coast of South Africa, during 1950–2010 to reveal changes in the abiotic and biotic components. St Helena Bay in the 1950s showed similarities to 2000–2010 in terms of wind patterns, hydrology and phytoplankton. Upwelling, oxygen and nutrient concentrations in subthermocline water displayed pronounced decadal-scale variability. Primary production in St Helena Bay is variable, but consistently higher than that on the adjacent Namaqua shelf. Zooplankton size composition and biomass in August have changed markedly since the 1950s. During 2001–2010, mesozooplankton biomass in autumn was considerably lower than in summer, probably due to predation by small pelagic fish. Pelagic fish catch patterns and distributions have altered dramatically. Conservation measures, implemented to reverse past negative human impact, have benefitted marine mammals, the abundance of which has increased in the area, but additional conservation measures are necessary to reverse the decline in African penguins Spheniscus demersus. St Helena Bay shows a muted response to long-term change in the southern Benguela, with marked decadal variability but no clear long-term trend in oceanography and biogeochemistry. Changes in ecosystem boundary conditions and fishing pressure cannot be ignored as important drivers of change in the southern Benguela since the 1950s.     

Top predators in the Benguela ecosystem — implications of their trophic position

Many top predators in the Benguela ecosystem feed on prey species targeted by commercial fisheries. Their roles as indicators of the state of exploited prey resources, as competitors with commercial fisheries for resources, and as susceptible to impact from commercial fishing on those resources are briefly considered. Trends in the occurrence of anchovy Engraulis capensis and pilchard Sardinops ocellatus in the diet of Cape gannets Morus capensis off South Africa's west coast are related significantly to survey estimates of the abundance of these fish species, and they provide useful confirmation of those estimates. In the 1980s, anchovy decreased in the diet of Cape gannets, but pilchard increased. In both the northern and southern portions of the Benguela system, groundfish were thought to eat most (66–73%) of the total quantity of cephalopods and vertebrates consumed by predators and man in the 1980s. South African fur seals Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus, predatory pelagic fish and man removed roughly equal amounts, with squids, seabirds and cetaceans having a smaller impact. In the 1980s, man and seals removed about two million tons live mass more than in 1930. Indices of the rate of natural mortality of anchovy and pilchard attributable to Cape gannets are not related to biomass of the prey species. That for anchovy was high in 1989 when a poor anchovy year-class was formed. Decreased abundance of anchovy led to poor breeding by Cape cormorants Phalacrocorax capensis in 1989 and 1990. A model linking the Cape cormorant population with anchovy is used to explore the impact of possible exploitation strategies for anchovy on Cape cormorants.     

Modelling multi-species interactions in the Barents Sea ecosystem with special emphasis on minke whales and their interactions with cod, herring and capelin

The Barents Sea ecosystem, one of the most productive and commercially important ecosystems in the world, has experienced major fluctuations in species abundance the past five decades. Likely causes are natural variability, climate change, overfishing and predator–prey interactions. In this study, we use an age-length structured multi-species model (Gadget, Globally applicable Area-Disaggregated General Ecosystem Toolbox) to analyse the historic population dynamics of major fish and marine mammal species in the Barents Sea. The model was used to examine possible effects of a number of plausible biological and fisheries scenarios. The results suggest that changes in cod mortality from fishing or cod cannibalism levels have the largest effect on the ecosystem, while changes to the capelin fishery have had only minor effects. Alternate whale migration scenarios had only a moderate impact on the modelled ecosystem. Indirect effects are seen to be important, with cod fishing pressure, cod cannibalism and whale predation on cod having an indirect impact on capelin, emphasising the importance of multi-species modelling in understanding and managing ecosystems. Models such as the one presented here provide one step towards an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management.     

Ecosystem structure and resilience—A comparison between the Norwegian and the Barents Sea

Abundance and biomass of the most important fish species inhabited the Barents and Norwegian Sea ecosystems have shown considerable fluctuations over the last decades. These fluctuations connected with fishing pressure resulted in the trophic structure alterations of the ecosystems. Resilience and other theoretical concepts (top-down, wasp-waste and bottom-up control, trophic cascades) were viewed to examine different response of the Norwegian and Barents Sea ecosystems on disturbing forces. Differences in the trophic structure and functioning of Barents and Norwegian Sea ecosystems as well as factors that might influence the resilience of the marine ecosystems, including climatic fluctuation, variations in prey and predator species abundance, alterations in their regular migrations, and fishing exploitation were also considered. The trophic chain lengths in the deep Norwegian Sea are shorter, and energy transfer occurs mainly through the pelagic fish/invertebrates communities. The shallow Barents Sea is characterized by longer trophic chains, providing more energy flow into their benthic assemblages. The trophic mechanisms observed in the Norwegian Sea food webs dominated by the top-down control, i.e. the past removal of Norwegian Spring spawning followed by zooplankton development and intrusion of blue whiting and mackerel into the area. The wasp-waist response is shown to be the most pronounced effect in the Barents Sea, related to the position of capelin in the ecosystem; large fluctuations in the capelin abundance have been strengthened by intensive fishery. Closer links between ecological and fisheries sciences are needed to elaborate and test various food webs and multispecies models available.     

Changes in the trophic structure of the southern Benguela before and after the onset of industrial fishing

Despite a human presence in the Benguela region for at least one million years, exploitation of marine resources by European seafarers only began in earnest in the 1400s. Ecopath with Ecosim was used to construct and compare mass-balanced foodweb models of the southern Benguela ecosystem, representing the following eras of human influence: aboriginal (10 000 BP–1651), pre-industrial (1652–1909), industrial (1910–1974) and post-industrial (1975–present). Biomass at higher trophic levels (TLs) decreased over the periods examined, whereas that of sardine and anchovy increased in the early 2000s, reflected by the decline in weighted TL of the community (excluding plankton). Fishing became an important predatory impact, taking over consumption of small pelagics and horse mackerel from declined natural predators such as hake. Harvesting of apex predators such as seals and seabirds during the pre-industrial era meant that the mean TL of the catch declined markedly between the pre-industrial (1900) and industrial (1960) models. Biomass removals by fishing have increased substantially over time. Total biomass, consumption, respiration, production and throughput decreased from the pristine model to 1960 and then increased again in the 2000s, probably influenced by the abnormally high small pelagic biomass in the early 2000s. Three additional alternate scenarios were examined for each of the retrospective models, in particular to explore the effects of removing large fish and forage fish from the system. Although biomasses and consumption of various groups in these scenarios differed from base models, indicators such as TL of the community and piscivore groups, and the diversity indices, were not altered much, suggesting that outputs from such retrospective models in the form of derived, relative indicators, may be more robust than comparisons of absolute flows, although the latter provide supplementary inferences. Although South African fisheries have certainly impacted ecosystem structure since their commencement, these effects are in addition to natural (specifically environmental) forcing that has always been influencing the system. Fishing stress at the ecosystem level and the collapse of small pelagic stocks may lead to a shift toward a bottom-up trophic control mechanism becoming the dominant driver of ecosystem dynamics, increasing the impact of environmental events including climate change. It is thus possible that pristine systems were not as severely affected by environmental anomalies as are modern systems.     

Ecosystem-based fisheries management in small-scale tropical marine fisheries: Emerging models of governance arrangements in the Philippines

There has been a gradual evolution in fisheries management over the past decades from a focus on sustainability of a single species or stock and resources to a focus on marine ecosystems. Among the issues to be addressed for effective implementation of ecosystem based fisheries management (EBFM) are the appropriate governance arrangements and scale for management. The purpose of this paper is to examine these issues of governance and scale as related to EBFM in tropical developing countries through an analysis of approaches being taken in the Philippines to manage fisheries on a multi-jurisdictional level. The management of fisheries and coastal resources in a number of bays and gulfs, which represent marine ecosystems, is presented. The opportunities and constraints to ecosystem based fisheries management in the Philippines are discussed and lessons for broader application of these governance structures in tropical developing country marine ecosystems are presented.     

Contrasting changes between the northern and southern Gulf of St. Lawrence ecosystems associated with the collapse of groundfish stocks

In order to have a global view of ecosystem changes associated with the collapse of groundfish species in the Gulf of St. Lawrence during the early 1990s, Ecopath mass-balance models were constructed incorporating uncertainty in the input data. These models covered two ecosystems (northern and southern Gulf of St. Lawrence; NAFO divisions 4RS and 4T), and two time periods (before the collapse, in the mid-1980s, and after it, in the mid-1990s). Our analyses revealed that the ecosystem structure shifted dramatically from one previously dominated by piscivorous groundfish and small-bodied forage species during the mid-1980s to one now dominated only by small-bodied pelagic species during the mid-1990s in both southern and northern Gulf. The species structure in the northern Gulf versus southern Gulf was different, which may explain why these two ecosystems did not recover the same way from the collapse in the early 1990s. Productivity declined in the northern Gulf after the collapse but increased in the southern Gulf. The collapse of groundfish stocks resulted in declines in the mean trophic level of the landings in both the northern and the southern Gulf. Even though fishing mortality was then intentionally reduced, this part of the total mortality was taken up by predation. The temporal changes in the internal structure of both ecosystems are reflected in their overall emergent properties.     

Regime shifts: Can ecological theory illuminate the mechanisms?

“Regime shifts” are considered here to be low-frequency, high-amplitude changes in oceanic conditions that may be especially pronounced in biological variables and propagate through several trophic levels. Three different types of regime shift (smooth, abrupt and discontinuous) are identified on the basis of different patterns in the relationship between the response of an ecosystem variable (usually biotic) and some external forcing or condition (control variable). The smooth regime shift is represented by a quasi-linear relationship between the response and control variables. The abrupt regime shift exhibits a nonlinear relationship between the response and control variables, and the discontinuous regime shift is characterized by the trajectory of the response variable differing when the forcing variable increases compared to when it decreases (i.e., the occurrence of alternative “stable” states). Most often, oceanic regime shifts are identified from time series of biotic variables (often commercial fish), but this approach does not allow the identification of discontinuous regime shifts. Recognizing discontinuous regime shifts is, however, particularly important as evidence from terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems suggests that such regime shifts may not be immediately reversible. Based on a review of various generic classes of mathematical models, we conclude that regime shifts arise from the interaction between population processes and external forcing variables. The shift between ecosystem states can be caused by gradual, cumulative changes in the forcing variable(s) or it can be triggered by acute disturbances, either anthropogenic or natural. A protocol for diagnosing the type of regime shift encountered is described and applied to a data set on Georges Bank haddock, from which it is concluded that a discontinuous regime shift in the abundance of haddock may have occurred. It is acknowledged that few, if any, marine data are available to confirm the occurrence of discontinuous regime shifts in the ocean. Nevertheless, we argue that there is good theoretical evidence for their occurrence as well as some anecdotal evidence from data collection campaigns and that the possibility of their occurrence should be recognized in the development of natural resource management strategies.     

Ecosystem modelling in the southern Benguela: comparisons of Atlantis,Ecopath with Ecosim,and OSMOSE under fishing scenarios

Ecosystem-based management of marine fisheries requires the use of simulation modelling to investigate the system-level impact of candidate fisheries management strategies. However, testing of fundamental assumptions such as system structure or process formulations is rarely done. In this study, we compare the output of three different ecosystem models (Atlantis, Ecopath with Ecosim, and OSMOSE) applied to the same ecosystem (the southern Benguela), to explore which ecosystem effects of fishing are most sensitive to model uncertainty. We subjected the models to two contrasting fishing pressure scenarios, applying high fishing pressure to either small pelagic fish or to adult hake. We compared the resulting model behaviour at a system level, and also at the level of model groups. We analysed the outputs in terms of various commonly used ecosystem indicators, and found some similarities in the overall behaviour of the models, despite major differences in model formulation and assumptions. Direction of change in system-level indicators was consistent for all models under the hake pressure scenario, although discrepancies emerged under the small-pelagic-fish scenario. Studying biomass response of individual model groups was key to understanding more integrated system-level metrics. All three models are based on existing knowledge of the system, and the convergence of model results increases confidence in the robustness of the model outputs. Points of divergence in the model results suggest important areas of future study. The use of feeding guilds to provide indicators for fish species at an aggregated level was explored, and proved to be an interesting alternative to aggregation by trophic level.