初夏至盛夏东亚副热带西风急流变化与江淮出梅的关系

利用1961—2005年逐候资料对东亚副热带西风急流初夏至盛夏变化与江淮出梅的关系进行了分析。结果表明,多年平均7月初夏至盛夏急流中心由西太平洋地区西跳至青藏高原的同时我国东部地区急流北跳至37.5°N以北,比梅雨结束早1候;急流北跳使得我国东部高空强辐散中心北移至华北地区,江淮地区上空辐散显著减弱,上升运动减弱,从而使得江淮梅雨结束,雨带北移;而急流中心的西跳仅使得我国东部地区高空辐散中心减弱,降水减弱,有利于雨带北移。我国东部急流北跳与江淮地区梅雨结束时间显著正相关,在北跳偏早(晚)年份梅雨结束早(晚),长江中下游地区降水偏少(多),而急流中心西跳早晚对我国华北北部地区和淮河附近地区降水有较大影响。可见,我国东部急流北跳与梅雨结束关系密切,可作为梅雨结束的先期信号。     

循环分块矩阵方程之解及其应用

利用1961—2005年逐候资料对东亚副热带西风急流初夏至盛夏变化与江淮出梅的关系进行了分析。结果表明,多年平均7月初夏至盛夏急流中心由西太平洋地区西跳至青藏高原的同时我国东部地区急流北跳至37．5°N以北,比梅雨结束旱1候;急流北跳使得我国东部高空强辐散中心北移至华北地区,江淮地区上空辐散显著减弱,上升运动减弱,从而使得江淮梅雨结束,雨带北移;而急流中心的西跳仅使得我国东部地区高空辐散中心减弱,降水减弱,有利于雨带北移。我国东部急流北跳与江淮地区梅雨结束时间显著正相关,在北跳偏早（晚）年份梅雨结束早（晚）,长江中下游地区降水偏少（多）,而急流中心西跳早晚对我国华北北部地区和淮河附近地区降水有较大影响。可见,我国东部急流北跳与梅雨结束关系密切,可作为梅雨结束的先期信号。     

2011年长江中下游旱涝急转成因初步分析

以2011年1~6月长江中下游"旱涝急转"事件为例,研究了长江中下游旱涝急转与大尺度环流和海温异常的关系,初步得到以下引发旱涝急转的原因:(1)中高纬度大气环流出现快速调整,迅速由强冬季风形势调整为两槽一脊环流形势所控制,进而造成长江中下游由受中高纬度系统控制转变为冷暖空气对峙之地;(2)西太平洋副热带高压位置和强度迅速调整,1~5月来自热带地区的水汽输送条件差,长江中下游地区水汽辐合较常年明显偏弱。6月,水汽输送和收支状况发生根本性转变,长江中下游表现为显著的水汽辐合中心,且明显强于常年;(3)6月青藏高原上空存在显著的气旋性异常环流,利于对流活动发展,受其底部异常西风的影响,对流活动频繁地东传至长江中下游地区,增强了梅雨锋的强度,先后引发了5次强降水过程;(4)前期持续的La Ni?a事件及其变化通过影响Walker环流、西太平洋副热带高压等大气环流系统,为旱涝急转事件的发生提供了有利的背景条件。     

初夏至盛夏东亚副热带西风急流突变早晚与东亚环流异常的关系

利用1961-2004年NCEP／NCAR再分析逐候资料和全国160站月平均降水资料,分析了初夏至盛夏东亚副热带急流北跳和急流中心西移发生早晚对7月东亚大气环流和我国降水的影响。结果表明,急流北跳时间与7月长江中下游地区降水异常正相关,急流中心西移时间则与7月淮河流域降水异常正相关,与华北和河套地区降水异常负相关。急流北跳时间与南亚高压和西太平洋副热带高压南北位置异常及高纬贝加尔湖以东高压脊强度相关;而急流中心西移时间与南亚高压和西太平洋副热带高压的东西伸展及贝加尔湖以西高压脊强度相关,在急流中心西移偏晚年,南亚高压西缩,贝加尔湖西南侧高压脊增强,南下至华北和河套地区冷空气偏强,且西太平洋副热带高压东撤,冷暖空气在淮河流域交汇,使得华北和河套地区降水减少而淮河流域降水偏多;偏早年情况与偏晚年情况相反。     

瞬变波动力强迫对初夏至盛夏东亚高空西风急流变化的影晌

利用NCEP／NCAR逐El再分析资料,探讨了瞬变波动力强迫作用对初夏至盛夏急流北跳和急流中心西移的影响。结果表明,瞬变波的动力强迫作用有利于急流北跳的发生,但不利于急流中心西移的发生。通过分析年际尺度上初夏至盛夏急流变化的早晚与瞬变波异常的关系发现,对于急流北跳发生的早晚,瞬变波异常的动力强迫作用为正反馈作用;对于中心西移发生的早晚,瞬变波异常的动力强迫作用则为负反馈作用。可见,瞬变波的动力强迫作用对初夏至盛夏急流变化及其发生早晚具有重要影响,但对急流北跳和急流中心西移的作用显著不同。     

瞬变波动力强迫对初夏至盛夏东亚高空西风急流变化的影响

利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,探讨了瞬变波动力强迫作用对初夏至盛夏急流北跳和急流中心西移的影响。结果表明,瞬变波的动力强迫作用有利于急流北跳的发生,但不利于急流中心西移的发生。通过分析年际尺度上初夏至盛夏急流变化的早晚与瞬变波异常的关系发现,对于急流北跳发生的早晚,瞬变波异常的动力强迫作用为正反馈作用;对于中心西移发生的早晚,瞬变波异常的动力强迫作用则为负反馈作用。可见,瞬变波的动力强迫作用对初夏至盛夏急流变化及其发生早晚具有重要影响,但对急流北跳和急流中心西移的作用显著不同。     

梅雨雨带北跳过程研究

利用1979～2007年逐日再分析资料和高分辨率逐日降水资料,通过定义确定了每年梅雨雨带北跳的日期,对梅雨雨带的北跳过程及其可能的物理机制进行了研究。分析结果表明:梅雨雨带北跳日期存在明显的年际变化,本文合成得到的雨带北跳过程与前人的工作相一致。水汽输送的变化和对流层中层的垂直运动是影响梅雨雨带位置分布的关键因素。Omega方程诊断结果表明,在梅雨雨带北跳前期,对流层高层的环流异常导致江淮流域出现异常下沉运动,不利于梅雨雨带的北跳;而涡度方程的诊断结果表明,江淮流域的异常下沉运动导致的非绝热冷却在中国东部的对流层低层引起异常反气旋涡度倾向,有利于副热带高压西伸,从而有利于梅雨雨带的北跳。因此,当对流层高层环流发生变化（主要受纬向涡度平流影响）,使得江淮流域的异常下沉运动转变为异常上升运动时,高低层相互配合,造成了梅雨雨带的突然北跳。     

中国东部夏季不同雨带类型的海洋和环流特征差异

利用1951-2009年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、UKMO HADISST1全球月海表温度及中国东部地区120站的月降水量资料,首先定义出能够客观表征中国东部夏季3种雨带类型的指数,然后分析了3种雨带分布类型海洋和大气环流特征的主要差异,并进一步分析了前期海洋背景的差异特征对夏季东亚环流关键系统的预测蕴示.结果表明:(1)3种雨带类型对应的前期冬季海洋信号比当年夏季强,其差异主要表现在:多雨带出现在北方地区的Ⅰ型对应的是北太平洋海温呈显著的正距平、暖池及东澳暖流为负距平、南太平洋西风漂流区为正距平;多雨带出现在黄淮地区的Ⅱ型对应的海温分布则与Ⅰ型完全相反;多雨带出现在长江及其以南地区的Ⅲ型对应的海温分布在北太平洋海域与Ⅰ型基本一致;(2)3种雨带类型对应的环流及水汽输送特征的差异主要表现在:Ⅲ型与Ⅰ型具有几乎完全相反的环流及水汽输送特征,当出现Ⅲ型时,东亚中高纬度有强盛的阻塞形势发展和维持,中高纬度的经向环流异常加强,同时西太平洋副热带高压偏强,位置偏西、偏南,该地区呈反气旋性距平环流,西太平洋副热带纬向水汽输送加强,而出现Ⅰ型时则相反;Ⅱ型与Ⅰ型的环流及水汽输送特征更接近,两者的主要差异是:当出现Ⅱ型时,西太平洋副热带地区呈反气旋性距平环流,而出现Ⅰ型时该地区呈气旋性距平环流;(3)前期冬季赤道中东太平洋海温和南太平洋西风漂流区的海温异常变化可以作为夏季西太平洋副热带高压预报的重要前兆信号.     

东亚副热带西风急流位置变化与亚洲夏季风爆发的关系

利用1961～2000年的NCEP/NCAR候平均再分析资料,初步探讨了季节转换期间东亚副热带西风急流南北和东西向位置变化与亚洲季风爆发之间的联系。结果表明,亚洲夏季风爆发伴随着东亚副热带西风急流轴线的北跳和急流中心西移,急流轴北跳至35°N以北的青藏高原上空,南支西风急流消失,亚洲季风环流形势建立。南海季风爆发早年,低纬的东风向北推进的时间早,到达的纬度偏北,中纬的西风急流强度偏弱,季风爆发晚年则相反。同时,南海夏季风爆发早年,青藏高原上空急流核出现较早,西太平洋上空急流核减弱较快,急流中心“西移”较早。而在南海夏季风爆发晚年,西太平洋上空的急流核减弱较迟,青藏高原上空急流核形成偏晚,急流中心“西移”较迟。此外,急流中心东西向位置和强度变化与江淮流域梅雨的开始和结束也有密切关系。     

1999年6月长江中下游梅雨暴雨的环流特征分析

利用客观分析资料和加强观测期资料,对1999年6月发生在我国长江流域的持续性梅雨期降水过程的大尺度环流特征进行了分析,结果表明:(1)1999年梅雨期,我国长江中下游强降水带状分布非常明显,强降水主要发生在长江中下游地区,强降水带呈东西向分布,并且雨带的南北边界非常清楚。(2)在对流层低层,从孟加拉湾来的西风气流和西太平洋副热带高压前缘的东南气流在长江流域维持,为此次强暴雨过程产生和发展提供了有利的大尺度条件。高空急流和低空急流的存在和维持为此次梅雨锋暴雨过程的发生提供了有利的抬升机制,而对流层中低层的中性对流不稳定特征则为持续性暴雨过程的发生提供了有利的不稳定机制。(3)梅雨锋区对流层低层的水汽辐合非常明显,水汽输送主要来自孟加拉湾和西太平洋,同时南海季风槽在向梅雨锋区输送水汽的过程中起到了非常重要的作用,它是热带海洋地区向我国内陆输送水汽的通道。(4)平均纬向风速u对流层高层出现了与高空西风急流与高空东风急流相对应的两个强风速核;径向平均风速v在400 hPa以下层次盛行南风,而在400 hPa以上的高层盛行北风;受两侧下沉气流的制约,梅雨锋降水带南北两侧存在位势不稳定层结中的不稳定能量无法释放,因此没有出现明显的降水。     

东亚季风区夏季陆地生态系统碳循环对东亚夏季风的响应

东亚地区陆地生态系统的时空变率表现出明显的对季风气候的响应特征。使用EOF（经验正交分解）方法分析了AVIM2动态植被陆面模式离线模拟试验模拟的1953～2004年东亚季风区夏季陆地生态系统总初级生产力（GPP）、生态系统净初级生产力（NPP）、净生态系统初级生产力（NEP）、植被呼吸以及土壤呼吸的时空分布特点,探讨了东亚夏季风对陆地生态系统碳循环影响机制。研究发现,在强季风年,江淮地区高温少雨的特点限制了光合作用,造成GPP偏低;而华南地区在强季风年气候温暖湿润,利于植被生长,GPP偏高。季风对于植被呼吸和土壤呼吸影响不明显,使得GPP和植被呼吸之差NPP的变化及NPP和土壤呼吸之差NEP的变化与GPP的变化保持一致。在强季风年江淮流域地区干热的气候条件使得NPP和NEP降低;但是在华南地区温度升高的同时降水增多使得在NPP偏高的基础上NEP也偏高。     

夏季东亚高空急流的变化及其对东亚季风的影响

东亚高空急流是东亚夏季风系统的一个重要组成部分,对东亚地区的天气和气候有着重要影响.近十年来,对东亚高空的变异规律及其相关机理、急流对东亚气候的影响等方面做了大量的观测资料分析和数值模拟研究.本文从夏季东亚高空急流的变化特征及其与东亚气候的关联、东亚高空急流的变异机理以及当前的气候模式对东亚高空急流的模拟能力评估和未来预估等几个方面,对这些研究结果进行了综述.     

East Atlantic oscillation of the atmospheric circulation

For the period 1950–2007, the comparison is made between the indices of the East Atlantic and North Atlantic oscillations and between the features of the atmospheric circulation and temperature regime of the Atlantic-European region connected with various combinations of indices. The analysis is made for the factors which have caused long difference in indices in 1996–2007 and for possible causes of anomalously warm winter in Europe in 2006–2007.     

东亚冬季风异常对区域气溶胶分布的影响

气溶胶已是东亚地区最主要的大气污染物之一,其时空分布会受到东亚季风气候的影响。利用2000～2014年MODIS/AOD（Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer/Aerosol Optical Depth）和NCEP月平均气象场再分析资料,本研究分析了东亚冬季风长期变化趋势、气溶胶年际变化规律,探讨了东亚冬季风强度变化对气溶胶分布的影响。基于MODIS/AOD,发现近10年东亚地区冬季AOD呈现上升趋势,最大值为2007年的0.44,高值区覆盖四川盆地、华北平原及长江中下游大部分地区。风场特征类冬季风指数分析表明,东亚冬季风存在明显的年际和年代际差异,近年出现逐渐减弱的趋势。强冬季风年,海陆气压差增大、东亚大槽加深增强,东亚地区偏北风异常,风场的增强将引导更多冷空气南下,从而给东亚大部分地区带来明显的降温天气;弱年相反。气象场差异引起气溶胶分布变化,强年较强的偏北风将气溶胶向南方输送,东亚地区AOD出现“北低南高”的空间分布;弱年偏北风较弱,导致气溶胶集中在华北平原一带,AOD出现“北高南低”的空间分布。     

Northern East Asian low and its impact on the interannual variation of East Asian summer rainfall

The strength of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated rainfall has been linked to the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and the lower-tropospheric low pressure system over continental East Asia (EA). In contrast to the large number of studies devoted to the WNPSH, little is known about the variability of the East Asian continental low. The present study delineates the East Asian continental low using 850-hPa geopotential height. Since the low is centered over northern EA (NEA), we refer to it as the NEA low (NEAL). We show that the intensity of the NEAL has large interannual variation, with a dominant period of 2–4 years. An enhanced NEAL exhibits a barotropic structure throughout the whole troposphere, which accelerates the summer-mean upper-tropospheric westerly jet and lower-tropospheric monsoon westerly to its south. We carefully identify the anomalous NEAL-induced rainfall anomalies by removal of the tropical heating effects. An enhanced NEAL not only increases rainfall locally in northern Northeast China, but also shifts the East Asian subtropical front northward, causing above-normal rainfall extending eastward from the Huai River valley across central-northern Japan and below-normal rainfall in South China. The northward shift of the East Asian subtropical front is attributed to the following processes without change in the WNPSH: an enhanced NEAL increases meridional pressure gradients and the monsoon westerly along the East Asian subtropical front, which in turn induces a cyclonic shear vorticity anomaly to its northern side. The associated Ekman pumping induces moisture flux convergence that shifts the East Asian subtropical front northward. In addition, the frequent occurrence of synoptic cut-off lows is found to be associated with an enhanced NEAL. Wave activity analysis indicates that the interannual intensity change of the NEAL is significantly associated with the extratropical Polar Eurasian teleconnection, in addition to the forcing of the tropical WNP heating.     

Interference of the East Asian Winter Monsoon in the Impact of ENSO on the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Decaying Phases简

The variability of the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） can be divided into an ENSO-related part （EAWMEN） and an ENSO-unrelated part （EAWMres）.The influence of EAWMres on the ENSO-East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） relationship in the decaying stages of ENSO is investigated in the present study.To achieve this,ENSO is divided into four groups based on the EAWMres：（1） weak EAWMres-E1Ni（n）o （WEAWMres-EN）; （2） strong EAWMres-E1Ni（n）o （SEAWMresEN）; （3） weak EAWMres-La Ni（n）a （WEAWMres-LN）; （4） strong EAWMres-La Ni（n）a （SEAWMres-LN）.Composite results demonstrate that the EAWMres may enhance the atmospheric responses over East Asia to ENSO for WEAWMres-EN and SEAWMres-LN.The corresponding low-level anticyclonic （cyclonic） anomalies over the western North Pacific （WNP） associated with El Ni（n）o （La Ni（n）a） tend to be strong.Importantly,this feature may persist into the following summer,causing abundant rainfall in northern China for WEAWMres-EN cases and in southwestern China for SEAWMres-LN cases.In contrast,for the SEAWMres-EN and WEAWMres-LN groups,the EAWMres tends to weaken the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with E1 Ni（n）o or La Ni（n）a.In these cases,the anomalous WNP anticyclone or cyclone tend to be reduced and confined to lower latitudes,which results in deficient summer rainfall in northern China for SEAWMres-EN and in southwestern China for WEAWMres-LN.Further study suggests that anomalous EAWMres may have an effect on the extra-tropical sea surface temperature anomaly,which persists into the ensuing summer and may interfere with the influences of ENSO.     

东亚大槽和西伯利亚高压的季节内变率对冬季东亚气温的影响

基于气候态定义了西伯利亚高压指数(SH index)、东亚大槽指数(ET index)和高低压系统间的东亚经向风指数(V index),使用回归分析探究西伯利亚高压和东亚大槽在季节内尺度上对东亚地区冬季温度的影响机理,构建线性模型对冬季华南地区季节内尺度温度进行延伸期预报。结果表明:西伯利亚高压和东亚大槽系统变化中最显著的是季节内尺度信号;季节内尺度SH index和ET index对V index的贡献分别为82.6％ 和42.2％;3个指数的回归模态在对流层中层对应西北-东南向低频罗斯贝波列缓慢东南传播,低层水汽、近地面层环流、降水及2 m温度场配置良好,当西伯利亚高压深厚或东亚大槽发展时,经向风关键区北风强盛,有利于冬季高纬度地区干冷空气向东亚输送;V index对华南地区冬季季节内尺度2 m气温的有效预报时效达25 d。     

Seasonal Variation of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet and Its Association with the Heating Field over East Asia

The structure and seasonal variation of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet （EAWJ） and associations with heating fields over East Asia are examined by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Obvious differences exist in the westerly jet intensity and location in different regions and seasons due to the ocean-land distribution and seasonal thermal contrast, as well as the dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of the Tibetan Plateau. In winter, the EAWJ center is situated over the western Pacific Ocean and the intensity is reduced gradually from east to west over the East Asian region. In summer, the EAWJ center is located over the north of the Tibetan Plateau and the jet intensity is reduced evidently compared with that in winter. The EAWJ seasonal evolution is characterized by the obvious longitudinal inconsistency of the northward migration and in-phase southward retreat of the EAWJ axis. A good correspondence between the seasonal variations of EAWJ and the meridional differences of air temperature （MDT） in the mid-upper troposphere demonstrates that the MDT is the basic reason for the seasonal variation of EAWJ. Correlation analyses indicate that the Kuroshio Current region to the south of Japan and the Tibetan Plateau are the key areas for the variations of the EAWJ intensities in winter and in summer, respectively. The strong sensible and latent heating in the Kuroshio Current region is closely related to the intensification of EAWJ in winter. In summer, strong sensible heating in the Tibetan Plateau corresponds to the EAWJ strengthening and southward shift, while the weak sensible heating in the Tibetan Plateau is consistent with the EAWJ weakening and northward migration.     

Combined effect of the East Atlantic/West Russia and Western Pacific teleconnections on the East Asian winter monsoon

This study investigates the individual effects of the East Atlantic/West Russia (EATL/WRUS) and Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection patterns and their combined effect on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The contributions of the respective EATL/WRUS and WP teleconnection patterns to the EAWM are revealed by removing the dependence on the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using a linear regression, which are named as N_EATL/WRUS and N_WP, respectively. This is because the EATL/WRUS (WP) is closely linked to the Arctic (tropics) region. A significant increase (decrease) in temperature over East Asia (EA) corresponding to a weak (strong) EAWM is associated with the N_EATL/WRUS and N_WP teleconnection patterns during the positive (negative) phases. In order to examine impacts of these two teleconnections on the EAWM, three types of effects are reconstructed on the basis of ± 0.5 standard deviation: 1) Combined effect, 2) N_EATL/WRUS effect, and 3) N_WP effect. The positive N_EATL/WRUS teleconnection induces to a weakened Siberian High and a shallow EA trough at the mid-troposphere through wave propagation, leading to the weak EAWM. During the positive N_WP pattern, warm air from the tropics flows toward the EA along western flank of an anomalous anticyclone over the North Pacific that is relevant to the meridional shift of the Aleutian Low. When the two mid-latitude teleconnections have the in-phase combination, the increase in temperature over EA appears to be more pronounced than the individual effects by transporting warm air from tropics via strong southeasterly wind anomalies induced by anomalous zonal pressure gradient between the Siberian High and Aleutian Low. Therefore, the impact of the mid-latitude teleconnections on the EAWM becomes robust and linearly superimposed, unlike a nonlinear in-phase combined effect of the AO and ENSO.