Studies on turbulent diffusion processes and evaluation of diffusivity values from hydrodynamic observations in Corpus Christi Bay

The physical process of dispersion which can be attributed to turbulence (turbulent diffusion) or shear (shear-augmented diffusion) within the flow field is very important as it ultimately governs the distribution of constituents of interest within the environment. A series of diffusion experiments were conducted in Corpus Christi Bay, TX with the purpose of characterizing turbulent diffusion through dispersion coefficients or turbulent diffusivity, K_i (i=x, y, z) dependent on the degree of randomness or turbulence intensity, I.Measured with a boat-mounted acoustic doppler current profiler (ADCP), the Eulerian velocity time-series of fluid particles in random motion, u_i was used in the evaluation of the Eulerian time-scale of turbulence, T^E based on the velocity correlation function, R^E with T^E being related to the Lagrangian time-scale T^L through a scaling parameter, β(=T^L/T^E). Surface currents were obtained with high frequency (HF) Radar equipment deployed over the study area from which the horizontal velocity gradients were determined.Within the spatial scale of the experiment (1000 m), the observed low horizontal gradients (10⁻⁴ s⁻¹) allowed for the generation of velocity time-series from an ADCP mounted on a moving platform. A numerical scheme for evaluating turbulent diffusivity values was developed on the basis of Eulerian current measurements and calibrated through the statistics of an evolving dye patch for the scaling parameter β which in this scheme was found to be in the range 1–3.     

The Polar Cap (PC) indices: Relations to solar wind parameters and global magnetic activity

The polar geomagnetic activity resulting from solar wind–magnetosphere interactions can be characterized the Polar Cap (PC) indices, PCN and PCS. PC index values are derived from polar magnetic variations calibrated on a statistical basis such that the index approximate values in units of mV/m of the interplanetary “geo-effective” (or “merging”) electric field (E_M) conveyed by the solar wind. The timing and amplitude relations of the PC index to solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters are reported. The solar wind effects are parameterized in terms of the geo-effective electric field (E_M) and the dynamical pressure (P_DYN). The PC index has a delayed and damped response to E_M variations and display saturation-like effects for E_M values exceeding 10 mV/m. Steady or slowly varying levels of solar wind dynamical pressure have little or no impact on the PC index above the effects related to E_M for which the solar wind velocity is also a factor. Sharp increases in the dynamical pressure generate impulsive variations in the PC index comprising a initial negative impulse of 5–10 min duration followed by a positive impulse lasting 10–20 min. Typical amplitudes of both the negative and the positive impulses are 0.2–0.5 units. A sharp decrease in the pressure produces the inverse sequence of pulses in the PC index. Auroral substorm activity represented by the AL index level has a marked influence on the average PC/E_M level at the transition from very quiet (AL0 nT) to disturbed conditions while more or less disturbed conditions (AL<−100 nT) have no systematic effect on the average PC/E_M values. At distinct substorm events the PC/E_M ratio has a minimum (0.8) in the pre-onset phase at around 20 min before substorm onset. The average ratio gradually increases in the expansion phase to reach a maximum value (1.1) at around 40 min after substorm onset (or 20 min after the largest (negative) peak in AL). At substorm recovery during the next 2 h the PC/E_M ratio decreases. Finally, we report on the application of polar magnetic variations to model the disturbance storm time (Dst) index development during magnetic storms by using the PC index as a source function to quantify the energy input to the ring current representing accumulated storm energy and characterized by the Dst index.     

Neogene volcanic activity of western Syria and its relationship with Arabian plate kinematics

The Cenozoic (mostly Neogene) volcanic activity in Syria is part of the extensive magmatism that took place in the Mashrek Region, Middle East, from upper Eocene to Holocene (40–0.0005 Ma). Samples in western Syria are mostly high TiO₂ (TiO₂ 1.8–3.7 wt.%) alkaline mafic rocks (basanites, hawaiites and alkali basalts) plus rare transitional/tholeiitic basalts and basaltic andesites) with within-plate-like trace element signature.On the basis of incompatible trace element content, the volcanic activity in Syria has been divided into two stages: the first lasting from 25 to 5 Ma and the second from 5 to recent times. Indeed, the Syrian lavas show incompatible trace element content increasing with decreasing age from 25 to 5 Ma, followed by an abrupt decrease to low values roughly at the Miocene–Pliocene boundary. This temporal shift in composition is related to major tectonic re-organization occurred during upper Miocene.The proposed petrogenetic model invokes three steps: (a) passive upwelling of the shallow asthenosphere during the development of the Dead Sea transform fault system. Different degrees of partial melting were followed by variable extents of fractional crystallization and limited upper crustal contamination; (b) the Miocene–Pliocene boundary tectonic change enhanced passive decompression of the same sources and a consequent increase in degree of partial melting resulting in low incompatible trace element content of the relatively high-volume liquids; (c) after this phase, the incompatible trace element content in the basaltic magmas increased as consequence of fractional crystallization processes.Major and trace element content similarities with the rest of the circum-Mediterranean igneous rocks are consistent with a common relatively shallow origin for the Cenozoic anorogenic magmatism of the entire circum-Mediterranean area (the so-called Common Magmatic Reservoir). Because much of the igneous activity in the studied area is concentrated near the Dead Sea fault, the origin of Cenozoic magmatism in Syria (and in the rest of the circum-Mediterranean area) reflects a strong lithospheric control on the loci of partial melting. Mantle plumes from lower mantle and/or north-westward channelling of the Afar mantle plume is not needed to explain volcanic activity in Syria and the Mashrek area.     

Organic thermometry for chondritic parent bodies

A unique spectroscopic feature has been identified in a study of twenty-five different samples of meteoritic insoluble organic matter (IOM) spanning multiple chemical classes, groups, and petrologic types, using carbon X-ray Absorption Near Edge Structure (XANES) spectroscopy. The intensity of this feature, a 1s − σ exciton, appears to provide a precise measure of parent body metamorphism. The intensity of this exciton is also shown to correlate well with a large negative paramagnetic shift observed through solid state ¹³C NMR. Experiments reveal that upon heating primitive IOM is transformed into material that is indistinguishable from that in thermally processed chondrites, including the development of the 1s − σ exciton. A thermo-kinetic expression is derived from the experimental data that allows the intensity of the 1s − σ exciton to be used to estimated the effective temperature integrated over time. A good correlation is observed between the intensity of the 1s − σ exciton and previously published microRaman spectral data. These data provide a self-consistent organic derived temperature scale for the purpose of calibrating Raman based thermometric expressions.     

Anelasticity of the crust and upper mantle beneath north and central India from the inversion of observed Love and Rayleigh wave attenuation data

The fundamental mode Love and Rayleigh waves generated by earthquakes occurring in Kashmir, Nepal Himalaya, northeast India and Burma and recorded at Hyderabad, New Delhi and Kodaikanal seismic stations are analysed. Love and Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients are obtained at time periods of 15–100 seconds, using the spectral amplitude of these waves for 23 different paths along northern (across Burma to New Delhi) and central (across Kashmir, Nepal Himalaya and northeast India to Hyderabad and Kodaikanal) India. Love wave attenuation coefficients are found to vary from 0.0003 to 0.0022 km^–1 for northern India and 0.00003 km^–1 to 0.00016 km^–1 for central India. Similarly, Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients vary from 0.0002 km^–1 to 0.0016 km^–1 for northern India and 0.00001 km^–1 to 0.0009 km^–1 for central India. Backus and Gilbert inversion theory is applied to these surface wave attenuation data to obtainQ ^–1 models for the crust and uppermost mantle beneath northern and central India. Inversion of Love and Rayleigh wave attenuation data shows a highly attenuating zone centred at a depth of 20–80 km with lowQ for northern India. Similarly, inversion of Love and Rayleigh wave attenuation data shows a high attenuation zone below a depth of 100 km. The inferred lowQ value at mid-crustal depth (high attenuating zone) in the model for northern India can be by underthrusting of the Indian plate beneath the Eurasian plate which has caused a low velocity zone at this shallow depth. The gradual increase ofQ ^–1 from shallow to deeper depth shows that the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary is not sharply defined beneath central India, but rather it represents a gradual transformation, which starts beneath the uppermost mantle. The lithospheric thickness is 100 km beneath central India and below that the asthenosphere shows higher attenuation, a factor of about two greater than that in the lithosphere. The very lowQ can be explained by changes in the chemical constitution taking place in the uppermost mantle.     

Critical phenomena in thermal conductivity: Implications for lower mantle dynamics

Microscopic mechanisms for heat transport in dense minerals (phonon scattering and photon attenuation) exhibit aspects of threshold behavior, discussed qualitatively here. For all minerals examined so-far using laser-flash analysis, the lattice component of the thermal conductivity of the mantle asymptotes to a constant above a critical temperature of 1500 K. Radiative transfer calculated from absorption spectra has thresholds in both grain-size and Fe content, and a rather complex dependence on temperature. These critical phenomena impact convection of the lower mantle, because the lattice contribution tends to destabilize the cold boundary layers, whereas radiative transfer mostly promotes stability in the lower mantle, unless the grains are large and Fe-rich, which makes convection chaotic and time-dependent. The specific behavior suggests that flow in the lower mantle is sluggish, whereas flow in the upper mantle-transition zone is time-dependent. The decrease in k_rad as Fe/(Fe + Mg) increases beyond 0.1 may be connected with formation of lower mantle, thermo-chemical plumes through positive feedback.     

Xenon isotope systematics, giant impacts, and mantle degassing on the early Earth

The relationships between the major terrestrial volatile reservoirs are explored by resolving the different components in the Xe isotope signatures displayed by Harding County and Caroline CO₂ well gases and mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB). For the nonradiogenic isotopes, there is evidence for the presence of components enhanced in the light ^124–128Xe/¹³⁰Xe isotope ratios with respect to the terrestrial atmosphere. The observation of small but significant elevations of these ratios in the MORB and well gas reservoirs means that the nonradiogenic Xe in the atmosphere cannot be the primordial base composition in the mantle. The presence of solar-like components, for example U–Xe, solar wind Xe, or both, is required.For radiogenic Xe generated by decay of short-lived ¹²⁹I and ²⁴⁴Pu, the ¹²⁹Xe_rad/¹³⁶Xe₂₄₄ ratios are indistinguishable in MORB and the present atmosphere, but differ by approximately an order of magnitude between the MORB and well gas sources. Correspondence of these ratios in MORB and the atmosphere within the relatively small uncertainties found here significantly constrains possible mantle degassing scenarios. The widely held view that substantial early degassing of ¹²⁹Xe_rad and ¹³⁶Xe₂₄₄ from the MORB reservoir to the atmosphere occurred and then ended while ¹²⁹I was still alive is incompatible with equal ratios, and so is not a possible explanation for observed elevations of ¹²⁹Xe/¹³⁰Xe in MORB compared to the atmosphere. Detailed degassing chronologies constructed from the isotopic composition of MORB Xe are therefore questionable.If the present estimate for the uranium/iodine ratio in the bulk silicate Earth (BSE) is taken to apply to all interior volatile reservoirs, the differing ¹²⁹Xe_rad/¹³⁶Xe₂₄₄ ratios in MORB and the well gases point to two episodes of major mantle degassing, presumably driven by giant impacts, respectively  20–50 Ma and  95–100 Ma after solar system origin assuming current values for initial ¹²⁹I/¹²⁷I and ²⁴⁴Pu/²³⁸U. The earlier time range, for degassing of the well gas source, spans Hf–W calculations for the timing of a moon-forming impact. The second, later impact further outgassed the upper mantle and MORB source. A single event that degassed both the MORB and gas well reservoirs at the time of the moon-forming collision would be compatible with their distinct ¹²⁹Xe_rad/¹³⁶Xe₂₄₄ ratios only if the post-impact iodine abundance in the MORB reservoir was about an order of magnitude lower than current estimates. In either case, such late dates require large early losses of noble gases, so that initial inventories acquired throughout the Earth must have been substantially higher.The much larger ¹²⁹Xe_rad/¹³⁶Xe₂₄₄ ratio in the well gases compared to MORB requires that these two Xe components evolve from separate interior reservoirs that have been effectively isolated from each other for most of the age of the planet, but are now seen within the upper mantle. These reservoirs have maintained distinct Xe isotope signatures despite having similar Ne isotope compositions that reflect similar degassing histories. This suggests that the light noble gas and radiogenic Xe isotopes are decoupled, with separate long-term storage of the latter. However, without data on the extent of heterogeneities within the upper mantle, this conclusion cannot be easily reconciled with geophysical observations without significant re-evaluation of present noble gas models. Nevertheless the analytic evidence that two different values of ¹²⁹Xe_rad/¹³⁶Xe₂₄₄ exist in the Earth appears firm. If the uranium/iodine ratio is approximately uniform throughout the BSE, it follows that degassing events from separate reservoirs at different times are recorded in the currently available terrestrial Xe data.     

Internal soil moisture and piezometric responses to rainfall-induced shallow slope failures

Better knowledge regarding internal soil moisture and piezometric responses in the process of rainfall-induced shallow slope failures is the key to an effective prediction of the landslide and/or debris flow initiation. To this end, internal soil moisture and piezometric response of 0.7-m-deep, 1.5-m-wide, 1.7-m-high, and 3.94-m-long semi-infinite sandy slopes rested on a bi-linear impermeable bedrock were explored using a chute test facility with artificial rainfall applications. The internal response time defined by the inflection point of the soil moisture and piezometric response curves obtained along the soil–bedrock interface were closely related to some critical failure states, such as the slope toe failure and extensive slope failures. It was also found that the response times obtained at the point of abrupt bedrock slope decrease can be used as indicators for the initiation of rainfall-induced shallow slope failures. An investigation of spatial distributions of soil water content, ω (or degrees of saturation, S_r), in the slope at critical failure states shows that the 0.2 m – below – surface zone remains unsaturated with S_r 40–60%, regardless of their distances from the toe and the rainfall intensity. Non-uniform distributions of ω (or S_r) along the soil–bedrock interface at critical failure states were always associated with near-saturation states (S_r 80–100%) around the point of bedrock slope change or around the transient ‘toe’ upstream of the slumped mass induced by the retrogressive failure of the slope. These observations suggest the important role of the interflow along the soil–bedrock interface and the high soil water content (or high porewater pressure) around the point of bedrock slope deflection in the rainfall-induced failure of sandy slopes consisting of shallow impermeable bedrocks. The present study proposes an ‘internal response time’ criterion to substantiate the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow slope failures. It is believed that the ‘internal response time’ reflects the overall characteristics of a slope under rainfall infiltration and can be as useful as the conventional meteorology-based threshold times. The ‘internal response time’ theory can be generalized via numerical modeling of slope hydrology, slope geology and slope stability in the future.     

Thermal Structure of the Ionian Slab

We propose a thermal model of the subducting Ionian microplate. The slab sinks in an isothermal mantle, and for the boundary conditions we take into account the relation between the maximum depth of seismicity and the thermal parameter L_th of the slab, which is a product of the age of the subducted lithosphere and the vertical component of the convergence rate. The surface heat-flux dataset of the Ionian Sea is reviewed, and a convective geotherm is calculated in its undeformed part for a surface heat flux of 42 mW m^–2, an adiabatic gradient of 0.6 mK m^–1, a mantle kinematic viscosity of 10¹⁷ m² s^–1 and an asthenosphere potential temperature of 1300°C. The calculated temperature-depth distribution compared to the mantle melting temperature indicates the decoupling limit between lithosphere and asthenosphere occurs at a depth of 105 km and a temperature of 1260°C. A 70–km thick mechanical boundary layer is found. By considering that the maximum depth of the seismic events within the slab is 600 km, a L_th of 4725 km is inferred. For a subduction rate equal to the spreading rate, the corresponding assimilation and cooling times of the microplate are about 7 and 90 Myr, respectively. The thermal model assumes that the mantle flow above the slab is parallel and equal to the subducting plate velocity of 6 cm yr^–1, and ignores the heat conduction down the slab dip. The critical temperature, above which the subduced lithosphere cannot sustain the stress necessary to produce seismicity, is determined from the thermal conditions governing the rheology of the plate. The minimum potential temperature at the depth of the deepest earthquake in the slab is 730°C.     

Mismatch between variations of solar indices, stratospheric ozone and UV-B observed at ground

In solar cycles 22–23, all solar indices showed maxima near 1990 and 2000 and minima in 1996. The maximum to minimum variation was only 1–2% in the UV range 240–350 nm. Dobson ozone intensities did not show any clear relationship with solar cycle and ozone variations were less than 10%. The UV-B (295–325 nm) observed at ground by Brewer spectrophotometers at some locations had variations of 50–100% for 295–300 nm, and 20–50% for 305–325 nm. The maxima were in different years at different locations (even with separations of only 300 km), did not match with the solar cycle, and were far too large to be explained on the basis of ozone changes (1% decrease of ozone is expected to cause 2% increase of UV-B). Thus, if the data are not bad, the UV-B changes do not match with solar activity or ozone changes and must be mostly due to other local effects (clouds, etc.?). When data are averaged over wide geographical regions, UV-B variation ranges are smaller (10–20%, probably because localised, highly varying cloud effects get filtered out), and are roughly as expected from ozone variations.     

Al–Mg and Pb–Pb systematics of Allende CAIs: Canonical solar initial Al/Al ratio reinstated

The precise knowledge of the initial ²⁶Al/²⁷Al ratio [(²⁶Al/²⁷Al)₀] is crucial if we are to use the very first solid objects formed in our Solar System, calcium–aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs) as the “time zero” age-anchor and guide future work with other short-lived radio-chronometers in the early Solar System, as well as determining the inventory of heat budgets from radioactivities for early planetary differentiation. New high-precision multi-collector inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS) measurements of ²⁷Al/²⁴Mg ratios and Mg-isotopic compositions of nine whole-rock CAIs (six mineralogically characterized fragments and three micro-drilled inclusions) from the CV carbonaceous chondrite, Allende yield a well-defined ²⁶Al–²⁶Mg fossil isochron with an (²⁶Al/²⁷Al)₀ of (5.23 ± 0.13) × 10^− 5. Internal mineral isochrons obtained for three of these CAIs (A44A, AJEF, and A43) are consistent with the whole-rock CAI isochron. The mineral isochron of AJEF with (²⁶Al/²⁷Al)₀ = (4.96 ± 0.25) × 10^− 5, anchored to our precisely determined absolute ²⁰⁷Pb–²⁰⁶Pb age of 4567.60 ± 0.36 Ma for the same mineral separates, reinstate the “canonical” (²⁶Al/²⁷Al)₀ of 5 × 10^− 5 for the early Solar System. The uncertainty in (²⁶Al/²⁷Al)₀ corresponds to a maximum time span of ± 20 Ka (thousand years), suggesting that the Allende CAI formation events were culminated within this time span. Although all Allende CAIs studied experienced multistage formation history, including melting and evaporation in the solar nebula and post-crystallization alteration likely on the asteroidal parent body, the ²⁶Al–²⁶Mg and U–Pb-isotopic systematics of the mineral separates and bulk CAIs behaved largely as closed-system since their formation. Our data do not support the “supra-canonical” ²⁶Al/²⁷Al ratio of individual minerals or their mixtures in CV CAIs, suggesting that the supra-canonical ²⁶Al/²⁷Al ratio in the CV CAIs may have resulted from post-crystallization inter-mineral redistribution of Mg isotopes within an individual inclusion. This redistribution must be volumetrically minor in order to satisfy the mass balance of the precisely defined bulk CAI and bulk mineral data obtained by MC-ICP-MS.The radiogenic ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ratio obtained as a by-product from the Pb–Pb age dating is used to estimate time-integrated ²³²Th/²³⁸U ratio (κ value) of CAIs. Limited κ variations among the minerals within a single CAI, contrasted by much larger variations among the bulk CAIs, suggest Th/U fractionation occurred prior to crystallization of igneous CAIs. If interpreted as primordial heterogeneity, the κ value can be used to calculate the mean age of the interstellar dust from which the CAIs condensed.     

Scattering attenuation and intrinsic absorption using uniform and depth dependent model – Application to full seismogram envelope recorded in Northern Chile

Two seismic wave attenuation factors, scatteringattenuation Q _s ^-1 and intrinsicabsorption Q _i ^-1 are measured using theMultiple Lapse Time Window (MLTW) analysis method forthree different frequency bands, 1–2, 2–4, and 4–8 Hz.Data from 54 temporally deployed seismic stationslocated in northern Chile are used. This methodcompares time integrated seismic wave energies withsynthetic coda wave envelopes for a multiple isotropicscattering model. In the present analysis, the waveenergy is assumed to decay with distance in proportionto1/GSF·exp(- (Q _s ^-1+Q _i ^-1)· r/v), where r, and v are the propagationdistance, angular frequency and S wave velocity,respectively, and GSF is the geometricalspreading factor. When spatial uniformity of Q _s ^-1, Q _i ^-1 and v isassumed, i.e. GSF = 4r ², theestimates of the reciprocal of the extinction length,L _e ^-1 (= (Q _s ^-1+Q _i ^-1)·/v), are 0.017,0.012 and 0.010 km^-1, and those of the seismicalbedo, B ₀ (= Q _s ^-1/ (Q _s ^-1+Q _i ^-1)), are 0.48, 0.40and 0.34 for 1–2, 2–4 and 4–8 Hz, respectively, whichindicates that scattering attenuation is comparable toor smaller than intrinsic absorption. When we assumea depth dependent velocity structure, we also findthat scattering attenuation is comparable to orsmaller than intrinsic absorption. However, since thequantitative estimates of scattering attenuationdepend on the assumed velocity structure (strength ofvelocity discontinuity and/or Moho depth), it isimportant to consider differences in velocitystructure models when comparing attenuation estimates.     

From regional seismic hazard to “scenario earthquakes” for seismic microzoning: A new methodological tool for the Celano Project

We present the results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and disaggregation analysis aimed to understand the dominant magnitudes and source-to-site distances of earthquakes that control the hazard at the Celano site in the Abruzzo region of central Italy. Firstly, we calculated a peak ground acceleration map for the central Apennines area, by using a model of seismogenic sources defined on geological-structural basis. The source model definition and the probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation at the regional scale (central Apennines) were obtained using three different seismicity models (Gutenberg–Richter model; characteristic earthquake model; hybrid model), consistent with the available seismological information. Moreover, a simplified time-dependent hypothesis has been introduced, computing the conditional probability of earthquakes occurrence by Brownian passage time distributions.Subsequently, we carried out the disaggregation analysis, with a modified version of the SEISRISK III code, in order to separate the contribution of each source to the total hazard.The results show the percentage contribution to the Celano hazard of the various seismogenic sources, for different expected peak ground acceleration classes. The analysis was differentiated for close (distance from Celano <20 km) and distant (distance from Celano >20 km) seismogenic sources. We propose three different “scenario earthquakes”, useful for the site condition studies and for the seismic microzoning study: (1) large (M=6.6) local (Celano-epicentre distance 16 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of 590 years; (2) moderate (M=5.5) local (Celano-epicentre distance 7.5 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of 500 years; and (3) large (M=6.6) distant (Celano-epicentre distance 24 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of 980 years.The probabilistic and time-dependent approach to the definition of the “scenario earthquakes” changes clearly the results in comparison to traditional deterministic analysis, with effects in terms of engineering design and seismic risk reduction.     

Nature of sediment dispersal off the Sepik River, Papua New Guinea: preliminary sediment budget and implications for margin processes

A sediment budget is constructed for the slope and narrow continental shelf off the Sepik River in order to estimate the relative importance of turbid plumes versus bottom gravity transport through a near-shore submarine canyon in the dispersal of sediment across this collision margin. ²¹⁰Pb geochronology and inventories of Kasten cores are consistent with the northwestward dispersal of sediment from the river mouth via hypopycnal and possible isopycnal plumes. Sediment accumulation rates are 5 cm yr⁻¹ on the upper slope just off of the Sepik mouth, decreasing gradually to 1 cm yr⁻¹ toward the northwest, and decreasing abruptly offshore (<0.2 cm yr⁻¹ at 1200 m water depth). A sediment budget indicates that only about 7–15% of the Sepik River sediment discharge accumulates on the adjacent open shelf and slope. The remainder presumably escapes offshore via gravity flows through a submarine canyon, the head of which extends into the river mouth. The divergent sediment pathways observed off the Sepik River (i.e., surface and subsurface plumes versus sediment gravity flows through a canyon) may be common along high-yield collision margins of the Indo–Pacific archipelago, and perhaps are analogous to most margins during Late Quaternary low sea-level conditions.     

Point-to-point connectivity,an abstract concept or a key issue for risk assessment studies?

Connectivity of high/low-permeability areas has been recognized to significantly impact groundwater flow and solute transport. The task of defining a rigorous quantitative measure of connectivity for continuous variables has failed so far, and thus there exist a suite of connectivity indicators which are dependent on the specific hydrodynamic processes and the interpretation method. Amongst the many existing indicators, we concentrate on those characterizing connectivity between the points involved in a hydraulic or tracer test. The flow connectivity indicator used here is based on the time elapsed for hydraulic response in a pumping test (e.g., the storage coefficient estimated by the Cooper–Jacob method, S_est). Regarding transport, we select the estimated porosity from the breakthrough curve (_est). According to Knudby and Carrera [Knudby C, Carrera J. On the relationship between indicators of geostatistical, flow and transport connectivity. Adv Water Resour 2005;28(4):405–21] these two indicators measure connectivity differently, and are poorly correlated. Here, we use perturbation theory to analytically investigate the intrinsic relationship between S_est and _est. We find that _est can be expressed as a weighted line integral along the particle trajectory involving two parameters: the transmissivity point values, T, and the estimated values of S_est along the particle path. The weighting function is linear with the distance from the pumping well, thus the influence of the weighting function is maximum at the injection area, whereas the hydraulic information close to the pumping well becomes redundant (null weight). The relative importance of these two factors is explored using numerical simulations in a given synthetic aquifer and tested against intermediate-scale laboratory tracer experiments. We conclude that the degree of connectivity between two points of an aquifer (point-to-point connectivity) is a key issue for risk assessment studies aimed at predicting the travel time of a potential contaminant.     

Optically stimulated luminescence dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from perennially frozen loess in western Yukon Territory, Canada: Comparison with radiocarbon chronologies for the late Pleistocene Dawson tephra

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of perennially frozen loess was tested on quartz grains extracted from deposits associated with the late Pleistocene Dawson tephra in western Yukon Territory, Canada. OSL samples were obtained from ice-rich loess bracketing the Dawson tephra, while radiocarbon (¹⁴C) samples were collected from the bulk sediments directly underlying the tephra and from a ground-squirrel burrow 2.7 m below the tephra. Here we report the OSL characteristics and ages of the extracted quartz grains, as well as additional radiocarbon ages for samples described in Froese [2002. Age and significance of the late Pleistocene Dawson tephra in eastern Beringia. Quaternary Science Reviews 21, 2137–2142; 2006. Seasonality of the late Pleistocene Dawson tephra and exceptional preservation of a buried riparian surface in central Yukon Territory, Canada. Quaternary Science Reviews 25, 1542–1551]. We refine the time of Dawson tephra deposition to between 25,420±70 and 25,290±80 ¹⁴C a BP. Bayesian analysis of constraining radiocarbon ages places the deposition of the Dawson tephra at between 30,433 and 30,032 cal a BP. Linear modulation (LM) OSL analysis of multi-grain aliquots of quartz showed that the initial part of the decay curve is dominated by a rapidly bleached (‘fast’) component; these samples, however, had relatively dim continuous wave (CW) OSL signals at the multi-grain aliquot (each composed of 80 grains) and single-grain scales of analysis. The single-aliquot regenerative-dose protocol was applied to multi-grain aliquots and single grains to obtain equivalent dose (D_e) values for samples collected from below and above the Dawson tephra. The D_e values were examined graphically and numerically, the latter using the central age, minimum age, and finite mixture models. For multi-grain aliquots, the central age model gave weighted mean D_e values between 30 and 50 Gy, which greatly underestimated the expected D_e of 74–81 Gy for both samples studied. Possible reasons for these underestimations are discussed, and a solution proposed based on single-grain analysis. Measurements of single grains produced D_e values in agreement with the expected D_e, and yielded OSL ages of 28±5 and 30±4 ka for the samples taken from above and below the Dawson tephra, respectively. Examination of individual grains with differing luminescence behaviors showed that a significant number of the measured quartz grains exhibited anomalous luminescence properties that would have compromised the results obtained from multi-grain aliquots. We therefore recommend analysis of individual grains to overcome the age-shortfall from multi-grain analysis of these and similar samples of quartz.     

Postglacial isostatic adjustment in a self-gravitating spherical earth with power-law rheology

Since microphysics cannot say definitively whether the rheology of the mantle is linear or non-linear, the aim of this paper is to constrain mantle rheology from observations related to the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process—namely relative sea-levels (RSLs), land uplift rate from GPS and gravity-rate-of-change from GRACE. We consider three earth model types that can have power-law rheology (n = 3 or 4) in the upper mantle, the lower mantle or throughout the mantle. For each model type, a range of A parameter in the creep law will be explored and the predicted GIA responses will be compared to the observations to see which value of A has the potential to explain all the data simultaneously. The coupled Laplace finite-element (CLFE) method is used to calculate the response of a 3D spherical self-gravitating viscoelastic Earth to forcing by the ICE-4G ice history model with ocean loads in self-gravitating oceans. Results show that ice thickness in Laurentide needs to increase significantly or delayed by 2 ka, otherwise the predicted uplift rate, gravity rate-of-change and the amplitude of the RSL for sites inside the ice margin of Laurentide are too low to be able to explain the observations. However, the ice thickness elsewhere outside Laurentide needs to be slightly modified in order to explain the global RSL data outside Laurentide. If the ice model is modified in this way, then the results of this paper indicate that models with power-law rheology in the lower mantle (with A  10⁻³⁵ Pa⁻³ s⁻¹ for n = 3) have the highest potential to simultaneously explain all the observed RSL, uplift rate and gravity rate-of-change data than the other model types.     

The effect of carbon dioxide cooling on trends in the F2-layer ionosphere

The effect of carbon dioxide (CO₂) cooling on trends of h_mF₂ and N_mF₂ are investigated using a coupled thermosphere and ionosphere general circulation model. Model simulations indicate that CO₂ cooling not only causes contraction of the upper atmosphere and changes of neutral and ion composition but also changes dynamics and electrodynamics in the thermosphere/ionosphere. These changes determine the altitude dependence of ionospheric trends and complex latitudinal, longitudinal, diurnal, seasonal, and solar cycle variations of trends of h_mF₂ and N_mF₂. Under the CO₂ cooling effect, trends of N_mF₂ are negative with magnitude from 0% to −40% for doubled CO₂, depending on location, local time, season, and solar activity. The corresponding trends of h_mF₂ are mostly negative with a magnitude from 0 to −40 km, but can be positive with a magnitude from 0 to 10 km at night, with maximum positive trends occurring after midnight under solar minimum conditions.     

A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions

During volcanic eruptions, volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDs) are used to forecast the location and movement of ash clouds over hours to days in order to define hazards to aircraft and to communities downwind. Those models use input parameters, called “eruption source parameters”, such as plume height H, mass eruption rate Ṁ, duration D, and the mass fraction m₆₃ of erupted debris finer than about 4 or 63 μm, which can remain in the cloud for many hours or days. Observational constraints on the value of such parameters are frequently unavailable in the first minutes or hours after an eruption is detected. Moreover, observed plume height may change during an eruption, requiring rapid assignment of new parameters. This paper reports on a group effort to improve the accuracy of source parameters used by VATDs in the early hours of an eruption. We do so by first compiling a list of eruptions for which these parameters are well constrained, and then using these data to review and update previously studied parameter relationships. We find that the existing scatter in plots of H versus Ṁ yields an uncertainty within the 50% confidence interval of plus or minus a factor of four in eruption rate for a given plume height. This scatter is not clearly attributable to biases in measurement techniques or to well-recognized processes such as elutriation from pyroclastic flows. Sparse data on total grain-size distribution suggest that the mass fraction of fine debris m₆₃ could vary by nearly two orders of magnitude between small basaltic eruptions ( 0.01) and large silicic ones (> 0.5). We classify eleven eruption types; four types each for different sizes of silicic and mafic eruptions; submarine eruptions; “brief” or Vulcanian eruptions; and eruptions that generate co-ignimbrite or co-pyroclastic flow plumes. For each eruption type we assign source parameters. We then assign a characteristic eruption type to each of the world's  1500 Holocene volcanoes. These eruption types and associated parameters can be used for ash-cloud modeling in the event of an eruption, when no observational constraints on these parameters are available.     

The geoelectric field at Vostok, Antarctica: its relation to the interplanetary magnetic field and the cross polar cap potential difference

The vertical geoelectric field measured at Vostok, Antarctica (78.5°S, 107°E, L=75.0) over the 13 month interval May 1979–May 1980 is correlated with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) components B_y and B_z at times when Vostok is connected to the dayside magnetosphere. No significant association with IMF B_x is found. The interaction of the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetic field generally results in anti-sunward plasma flow in the high-latitude, polar ionosphere driven by a dawn-to-dusk, cross polar cap potential difference pattern. Using the IZMEM model to infer the contribution of the cross polar cap potential difference to the potential difference between the ionosphere and the ground at Vostok for the measured IMF conditions, we show that this provides a viable mechanism for the IMF associations found. We demonstrate that the direct association of the geoelectric field with the cross polar cap potential difference is independent of a result (Park, 1976. Solar magnetic sector effects on the vertical atmospheric electric field at Vostok, Antartica. Geophysical Research Letters 3(8), 475–478) showing an 15% decrease in the vertical geoelectric field measured at Vostok, 1–3 days after the passage of IMF sector boundaries. Evidence is also presented supporting the Park result, for which a mechanism is yet to be confirmed.