全新世中国陆地生态系统碳储量变化的估算

 利用重建的中国全新世植被图和现代植被碳密度资料,初步估算了全新世期间中国及其分区每2 ka陆地生态系统碳储量的变化情况。结果表明：近10 ka期间,中国陆地生态系统碳储量在6 ka BP前后达到最大,此后开始降低,尤其是近2 ka降幅明显。新石器时期,特别是农业文明开始以后,人类活动对陆地植被的持续干预可能是造成陆地生态系统碳储量长期减少的主要原因。     

6 kaBP中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力的模拟

利用植被与大气相互作用模式（AVIM）模拟了全新世中期（6 kaBP）及现代中国陆地植被净初级生产力（NPP）的大小与分布特征,计算了以上两个时期我国陆地植被NPP的碳总量。结果表明：全新世中期以来气候的变化是影响我国陆地植被NPP变化的主要原因,6 kaBP时期NPP平均值为409 g/（m2·a）, NPP碳总量为3.89 Pg/a,分别比现在高15%和19%。全新世中期至今,我国陆地植被NPP的变化特征与对应时期中国土壤碳储量的变化趋势具有很好的一致性,这表明了利用生态模式模拟长时间尺度下我国陆地植被NPP的变化特征是可行的。     

成熟森林生态系统土壤有机碳积累:实现碳中和目标的一条重要途径

为了应对全球气候变化带来的挑战,2020年9月中国提出努力争取在2060年前实现碳中和。对此,生态系统固碳被寄予厚望;然而,生态学理论认为,成熟生态系统的碳输入输出趋于平衡,没有碳的净积累,也就没有碳汇功能,而未成熟的生态系统虽有碳的净积累并具有碳汇功能,但自然界任何未成熟生态系统从它建立的时候开始都在不断地向成熟生态系统演替,即任一生态系统演替的最终结果必然是碳输入输出达到平衡状态。由于森林生态系统碳库是陆地生态系统中最大的碳库,所以人们对其在碳中和上的贡献充满期待。本文以森林生态系统为例,分别考虑森林生态系统碳库的生物量碳库和土壤有机碳库,并基于全球最新研究成果,论证了森林生态系统土壤碳库积累过程具有长久的固碳功能,且不违背成熟生态系统碳输入输出趋于平衡的生态学理论,它能为实现碳中和目标做出贡献。     

不同陆地生态系统碳通量对GEOS-Chem模型模拟全球CO2浓度的影响

大气中CO₂含量的增加速率已经超过了自然界所能吸收的速度,并逐步影响到全球气候变暖。利用模型模拟分析已经成为一个重要的工具用以深入对碳循环的理解。本文使用2008～2010年的生物模型SiB3（Simple Biosphere version 3）与优化后的CT2016（Carbon Tracker 2016）陆地生态系统碳通量驱动GEOS-Chem大气化学传输模型模拟全球CO₂浓度。通过分析模拟CO₂浓度的空间分布与季节变化,加深对全球碳源汇分布特点的理解,探究陆地生态系统碳通量不确定性对模拟结果的影响,进而认识陆地生态系统碳通量反演精度提升的重要性。SiB3与优化后的CT2016陆地生态系统碳通量都具有明显的季节变化,但在欧洲地区碳源汇的表现相反,其全球总量与空间分布也存在极大的不确定性。模拟CO₂浓度结果表明:在人为活动较少地区,陆地生态系统碳通量对近地面CO₂浓度空间分布起主导作用,尤其在南半球和欧洲地区模拟浓度有明显差异,且两种模拟结果的季节差异依赖于陆地生态系统碳通量的季节变化。将模拟结果与9个观测站点资料进行对比,以期选用合适的陆地生态系统碳通量来提升GEOS-Chem模拟CO₂浓度的精度。实验结果表明:两种模拟结果均能较好的模拟CO₂浓度的季节变化及其峰谷值,但CT2016模拟的CO₂浓度在多数站点处更接近观测资料,模拟准确性更高。     

陆地生态系统与全球变化相互作用的研究进展

全球变化及其对生态系统特别是陆地生态系统的影响已经严重地影响到人类生存环境与社会经济的可持续发展 ,引起了各国政府、科学家及公众的高度关注。文中从CO2 浓度倍增、温度变化、水分变化、水热与CO2 协同作用、辐射变化、臭氧变化以及人为干扰等气候环境变化对植物光合生理、生长发育、物质分配、水分利用、碳氮代谢等的影响方面阐述了全球变化影响生态系统的过程与机理 ;从地理分布范围、物候、结构与功能、生态系统的稳定性等方面分析了中国植被、森林生态系统、草原生态系统与农田生态系统对全球变化的响应 ;从植被变化引起的动力条件与热力条件的变化及植被固碳潜力的变化探讨了植被对于气候的反馈作用。在此基础上 ,基于当前全球变化研究前沿 ,提出了未来关于陆地生态系统与全球变化相互作用研究需要重视的方面 ,尤其是关于生态系统对全球变化响应的阈值研究应引起高度重视。     

1981—2019年全球陆地生态系统碳通量变化特征及其驱动因子

陆地生态系统碳汇显著降低大气CO₂浓度上升和全球变暖的速率,受人类活动和气候变化的影响,陆地生态系统碳通量具有强烈的时空变化,其估算结果仍存在较大的不确定性,不同因子的贡献尚不清晰。为此,利用遥感驱动的陆地生态系统过程模型BEPS模拟分析了1981—2019年全球陆地生态系统碳通量的时空变化特征,评价了大气CO₂浓度、叶面积指数（Leaf Area Index,LAI）、氮沉降、气候变化对全球陆地生态系统碳收支变化的贡献。1981—2019年全球陆地生态系统总初级生产力（Gross Primary Productivity,GPP）、净初级生产力（Net Primary Productivity,NPP）和净生态系统生产力（Net Ecosystem Productivity,NEP）的平均值分别为115.3、51.3和2.7 Pg·a^-1（以碳质量计,下同）,上升速率分别为0.47、0.21和0.06 Pg·a^-1。全球大部分区域GPP和NPP显著增加,NEP显著上升（p<0.05）的区域明显少于GPP和NPP。1981—2019年,全球NEP累积为105.2 Pg,森林、稀树草原及灌木、农田和草地的贡献分别为76.4、15.8、9.4和3.6 Pg。CO₂浓度、LAI、氮沉降和气候变化各自对NEP的累积贡献分别为58.4、20.6、0.7和-43.6 Pg,全部4个因子变化对NEP的累积贡献为39.8 Pg,其中CO₂浓度上升是近40 a全球陆地生态系统NEP上升的主要贡献因子,其次为LAI。     

近地层臭氧对我国树木生产力和作物产量的影响:进展与展望

大气污染严重威胁了我国陆地生态系统的固碳能力,但随着减污降碳协同治理的快速推进,减缓大气污染将有利于提升陆地碳汇,并切实推动碳达峰碳中和目标的实现。为了更好地理解大气污染与生态系统固碳的关系,本文以主要空气污染物臭氧（O₃）为例,基于田间控制实验的整合分析、剂量响应关系及机理模型三种评估方法综述了近地层O₃污染对植被碳固定影响的最新进展。尽管不同作物种类以及品种、不同功能型木本植物对O₃的响应有着显著的差异,且各种方法的评估结果也不尽相同,但目前O₃浓度造成我国粮食作物减产、森林生产力降低已是不争的事实。持续升高的O₃浓度将严重威胁我国陆地生态系统的固碳能力。利用我国作物和树木的O₃剂量响应方程进行评估的结果表明,在CO₂减排和O₃污染协同治理下,预计2060年我国树木生物量和作物产量将比当前显著提高,增加陆地生态系统碳汇,助力碳中和目标。最后,对如何提高O₃污染环境下植物固碳能力也进行了展望。     

长江三角洲地区净生态系统二氧化碳通量及浓度的数值模拟

净生态系统碳通量(NEE)的计算对于准确模拟区域碳通量和大气CO₂浓度的时空变化至关重要。本文利用中尺度大气-温室气体耦合模式WRF-GHG(Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Greenhouse Gases Module),对2010年7月28日至2010年8月2日期间影响长江三角洲地区大气CO₂浓度及时空分布的各种过程进行了详尽模拟。结果表明,植被光合呼吸模型(VPRM)能模拟不同植被下垫面NEE的日变化;WRF-GHG模拟的大气CO₂浓度日变化与观测相吻合,但低估了大气CO₂浓度5~15 ppm(ppm表示10-6),这可能与人为排放源的低估、VPRM参数的不确定性以及气象场模拟的不准确性有关。太湖和植被覆盖较好的地区如浙江北部山区是该地区的主要碳汇,而城市为CO₂的主要排放源。太湖和陆地生态系统对区域内碳循环起到一定的调节作用,减缓区域大气CO₂浓度的升高。此外,局地气象条件如湖陆风对太湖周边地区大气CO₂浓度有显著影响。     

陆面模式中氮循环过程的引入Ⅰ:模式介绍及站点验证（英文）

陆地生态系统氮循环对碳循环过程及其对气候变化的反馈具有重要的影响,但当前陆面模式多数都没有考虑氮循环过程对碳循环过程的限制。本研究基于氮在土壤-植被-大气中的传输交换过程,将氮循环过程引入到陆面模式AVIM(Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model)中,发展形成包含碳氮耦合过程的新版模式AVIM-CN。与2004-05年当雄生态系统定位站通量观测数据相对比,模式中引入氮循环过程后,高寒草甸的总初级生产力模拟值从1.1403 gC m^-2d^-1降到了0.7073 gC m^-2d^-1,前者更接近通量站的观测值0.5407 gC m^-2d^-1。生态系统呼吸的模拟值也从1.7695 gC m^-2d^-1降到了1.0572 gC m^-2d^-1,更接近对应的通量观测值0.8034 gC m^-2d^-1。整体而言,在模式中考虑氮的限制作用后,当雄站的热量通量和碳通量的模拟值更接近实测值。不考虑氮过程对碳过程的限制,模式高估了约40%的陆地生态系统碳通量。     

8.2 ka BP冷事件

全新世11.5 ka BP以来遭受的最强的一次冷事件是8.2 ka BP事件.全新世气候的基调是温暖湿润.但是,大量的古气候资料表明,全新世气候也有不稳定性[1],至今可能已发生过8～9次冷事件,8.2 kaBP事件就是其中的一次[2].     

The Terrestrial NPP Simulation in China since 6ka BP

1. IntroductionAccording to the reconstruction of paleo-temperature based on δ18 O data of ice core in theGreenland (see Jouzel et al., 1987; Grootes et al.,1993; Blunier and Brook, 2001), the current inter-glacial epoch, the Holocene, began at ca. 11.5 thou-sand years before present (ka BP). Multiple sources(pollen data, macrofossils) reveal that the summer cli-mate in the Northern Hemisphere was warmer in theearly to middle Holocene (MH) (ca. 8-6ka BP) relativeto the present climate. …     

Temporary sequestration credits: an instrument for carbon bears

Abstract

Temporary crediting of carbon storage is an instrument that allows entities with emissions reductions obligations to defer some obligations for a fixed period of time. This instrument provides a means of guaranteeing the environmental integrity of a carbon sequestration project. But because the user of the temporary credit takes on the liability of renewing it, or replacing it with a permanent credit, the temporary credit must sell at a discount compared to a permanent credit. We show that this discount depends on the expected change in price of a permanent credit. Temporary credits have value only if restrictions on carbon emissions are not expected to tighten substantially. The intuition is illustrated by assessing the value of a hypothetical temporary sulfur dioxide sequestration credit, using historical data on actual SO₂ allowance prices.     

新仙女木事件及全新世早中期降温事件——来自洱海湖泊沉积的记录

Three cold events (the Younger Dryas, 9.4 ka cal BP, 5.8 ka cal BP) since the 13 ka cal BP in Erhai (EH) Lake catchment, Yunnan Province, were analyzed using the Total Organic Carbon (TOC) series of the EH core. By comparison of the EH core, Qinghai Lake core and Guliya ice core, differences of these cold events were determined. Erhai Lake's responses to the global cold events were lagged in time and weakened in intensity in comparison with Qinghai Lake's. The latitude location of Erhai Lake and the obstruction of Tibetan Plateau may in part explain the differences. However, the remarkable cold event of 8.2 ka cal BP in the Guliya ice core was absent in the records of Erhai Lake and Qinghai Lake. Power spectrum analysis of the TOC proxy series shows that there were three kinds of millennial cycles, i.e. 5 ka, 2.3 ka, and 1.5 ka, in climate changes in Erhai Lake, which reveal the responses of climate to suborbit cycles.     

基于森林资源清查的江西省森林贮碳功能研究

利用江西省1999--2003年森林资源二类清查资料,结合大岗山森林生态站的实测数据以及已公布的调查资料,运用材积源生物量法对江西省森林的碳储量和碳密度进行了估算和评价。结果表明,江西省不同类型森林乔木层碳密度,由大到小依次为硬阔林、针阔混交林、毛竹林、国外松林、杉木林、软阔林、灌木林、马尾松林和经济林,且碳密度随着林龄的增大而增大,随人口密度的增大而减小。森林碳密度土壤层最大,植被层次之,枯落物层最小。不同森林类型乔木层碳储量,由大到小依次为杉木林、硬阔林、马尾松林、毛竹林、灌木林、国外松林、经济林、针阔混交林、软阔林。从森林类型分布看,除杉木和国外松林外,其他森林类型天然林乔木层碳储量远大于人工林;从地理分布看,除南昌、萍乡、新余三市外,其余各市均是天然林乔木层碳储量远大于人工林。不同年龄森林乔木层碳储量,由大到小依次为中龄林、幼龄林、近熟林、成熟林、过熟林。不同森林碳储量由大到小依次为杉木林、马尾松林、硬阔林、灌木林、经济林、毛竹林、针阔混交林、国外松林和软阔林,南部和中西部要高于中东部和北部。江西省森林总碳储量为1．5Gt,占全国森林总碳储量的5．33％。     

Temperature and Precipitation Changes in China During the Holocene

We review here proxy records of temperature and precipitation in China during the Holocene, especially the last two millennia. The quality of proxy data, methodology of reconstruction, and uncertainties in reconstruction were emphasized in comparing different temperature and precipitation reconstruction and clarifying temporal and spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation during the Holocene. The Holocene climate was generally warm and wet. The warmest period occurred in 9.6-6.2 cal ka BP, whereas a period of maximum monsoon precipitation started at about 11.0 cal ka BP and lasted until about 8.0-5.0 cal ka BP. There were a series of millennial-scale cold or dry events superimposed on the general trend of climate changes. During past two millennia, a warming trend in the 20th century was clearly detected, but the warming magnitude was smaller than the maximum level of the Medieval Warm Period and the Middle Holocene. Cold conditions occurred over the whole of China during the Little Ice Age （AD 1400-AD 1900）, but the warming of the Medieval Warm Period （AD 900-AD 1300） was not distinct in China, especially west China. The spatial pattern of precipitation showed significant regional differences in China, especially east China. The modern warm period has lasted 20 years from 1987 to 2006. Bi-decadal oscillation in precipitation variability was apparent over China during the 20th century. Solar activity and volcanic eruptions both were major forcings governing the climate variability during the last millennium.     

Would forestation alleviate the burden of emission reduction? An assessment of the future carbon sink from ARD activities

Abstract

Atmospheric CO₂ concentration can be decreased not only by reducing fossil fuel burning but also by increasing the terrestrial ecosystems that serve as sinks for CO₂. The Kyoto Protocol allows countries that are burdened with emission reduction commitments to use carbon sequestration by terrestrial sinks. However, opinions differ widely on how the inclusion of terrestrial carbon sinks in the legally binding framework (Article 3.3) will affect the demand for emission reduction during the commitment period. We approach this issue by combining a simulation model of the carbon stock change with that of land-use change. The result of the simulation shows that the Annex I countries in total may potentially claim for a net carbon offset as high as 0.2 GtC per year by carrying out ARD (Afforestation, Reforestation and Deforestation) activities. In order to come up with an effective long-term climate regime, political decisions are necessary to realize an appropriate balance between the sink enhancement and the emission reduction. Sink activities should not be too large to eliminate the efforts for emission reduction, nor too small to discourage the efforts in enhancing sinks. Although prediction of sink activities is an extremely difficult venture, several estimates of the potential should be carefully considered before political decisions. Appropriate inclusion of sink activities is also crucial for ratifying the Kyoto Protocol.     

An estimate of equilibrium sensitivity of global terrestrial carbon cycle using NCAR CCSM4

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ influence climate, terrestrial biosphere productivity and ecosystem carbon storage through its radiative, physiological and fertilization effects. In this paper, we quantify these effects for a doubling of CO₂ using a low resolution configuration of the coupled model NCAR CCSM4. In contrast to previous coupled climate-carbon modeling studies, we focus on the near-equilibrium response of the terrestrial carbon cycle. For a doubling of CO₂, the radiative effect on the physical climate system causes global mean surface air temperature to increase by 2.14 K, whereas the physiological and fertilization on the land biosphere effects cause a warming of 0.22 K, suggesting that these later effects increase global warming by about 10 % as found in many recent studies. The CO₂-fertilization leads to total ecosystem carbon gain of 371 Gt-C (28 %) while the radiative effect causes a loss of 131 Gt-C (~10 %) indicating that climate warming damps the fertilization-induced carbon uptake over land. Our model-based estimate for the maximum potential terrestrial carbon uptake resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration (285–570 ppm) is only 242 Gt-C. This highlights the limited storage capacity of the terrestrial carbon reservoir. We also find that the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity to changes in CO₂ and temperature have been estimated to be lower in previous transient simulations because of lags in the climate-carbon system. Our model simulations indicate that the time scale of terrestrial carbon cycle response is greater than 500 years for CO₂-fertilization and about 200 years for temperature perturbations. We also find that dynamic changes in vegetation amplify the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity relative to a static vegetation case: because of changes in tree cover, changes in total ecosystem carbon for CO₂-direct and climate effects are amplified by 88 and 72 %, respectively, in simulations with dynamic vegetation when compared to static vegetation simulations.     

中国森林乔木林碳储量及其固碳潜力预测

加强对我国森林碳储量和固碳潜力的研究,是制定中国增汇减排政策的重要依据,对我国国际气候谈判和全面了解森林碳汇潜力具有重要作用。利用我国第七次和第八次森林资源清查中各优势树种的面积和蓄积量数据,采用IPCC材积源生物量法（volume-biomass method),估算了我国森林（乔木林）碳储量和碳密度及其分布,分析我国不同省份天然乔木林和人工乔木林碳储量龄组结构特征;建立分区域、分起源主要优势树种的单位面积蓄积-林龄Logistic生长方程,结合我国森林2020年和2030年面积蓄积增长目标,预测我国乔木林2010—2050年间碳汇潜力。结果表明：第八次清查期间中国乔木林总碳储量为6135.68 Tg,碳密度为37.28 Mg/hm ²;天然乔木林和人工乔木林的碳储量分别为5246.07 Tg和889.61 Tg,分别占总碳储量的85.50%和14.50%。到2050年,中国乔木林和新造林的总碳储量和平均碳密度将分别达到11125.76 Tg和52.52 Mg/hm ²,与2010年相比分别增加81%和41%。分析结果表明中国乔木林有很大的碳汇潜力,将在应对和减缓全球气候变化中发挥重要作用。     

Temperature and Precipitation Changes in China During the Holocene

We review here proxy records of temperatare and precipitation in China during the Holocene,especially the last two millennia.The quality of proxy data,methodology of reconstruction,and uncertainties in reconstruction were emphasized in comparing different temperatare and precipitation reconstruction and clarilying temporal and spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation during the Holocene.The Holocene climate was generally warm and wet.The warmest period occurred in 9.6-6.2 cal ka BP,whereas a period of maximum monsoon precipitation started at about 11.0 cal ka BP and lasted until about 8.O-5.0 cal ka BP.There were a series of millennial-scale cold or dry events superimposed on the general trend of climate changes.During past two millennia,a warming trend in the 20th century was clearly detected,but the warming magnitude was smaller than the maximum level of the Medieval Warm Period and the Middle Holocene.Cold conditions occurred over the whole of China during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-AD 1900),but the warming of the Medieval Warm Period(AD 900-AD 1300)was not distinct in China,especially west China.The spatial pattern of precipitation showed significant regional differences in China,especially east China.The modern warm period has lasted 20、years from 1987 to 2006.Bi-decadal oscillation in precipitation variability was apparent over China during the 20th century. Solar activity and volcanic eruptions both were major forcings governing the climate variability during the last millennium.