Evaluation of hydrologic components of community land model 4 and bias identification

Runoff and soil moisture are two key components of the global hydrologic cycle that should be validated at local to global scales in Earth System Models (ESMs) used for climate projection. We have evaluated the runoff and surface soil moisture output by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) along with 8 other models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) repository using satellite soil moisture observations and stream gauge corrected runoff products. A series of Community Land Model (CLM) runs forced by reanalysis and coupled model outputs was also performed to identify atmospheric drivers of biases and uncertainties in the CCSM. Results indicate that surface soil moisture simulations tend to be positively biased in high latitude areas by most selected CMIP5 models except CCSM, FGOALS, and BCC, which share similar land surface model code. With the exception of GISS, runoff simulations by all selected CMIP5 models were overestimated in mountain ranges and in most of the Arctic region. In general, positive biases in CCSM soil moisture and runoff due to precipitation input error were offset by negative biases induced by temperature input error. Excluding the impact from atmosphere modeling, the global mean of seasonal surface moisture oscillation was out of phase compared to observations in many years during 1985–2004. The CLM also underestimated runoff in the Amazon, central Africa, and south Asia, where soils all have high clay content. We hypothesize that lack of a macropore flow mechanism is partially responsible for this underestimation. However, runoff was overestimated in the areas covered by volcanic ash soils (i.e., Andisols), which might be associated with poor soil porosity representation in CLM. Our results indicate that CCSM predictability of hydrology could be improved by addressing the compensating errors associated with precipitation and temperature and updating the CLM soil representation.     

同化MODIS温度产品估算地表水热通量

基于集合卡尔曼滤波和通用陆面模型(CLM 1.0)发展了一个地表温度的同化系统。这个系统同化了MODIS温度产品, 并将MODIS的叶面积指数引入CLM模型中, 主要用于改进地表水热通量的估算精度。将CLM输出的地表温度与MODIS地表温度建立关系, 并作为同化系统的观测算子。将MODIS地表温度与实测地表温度进行了比较, 将其均方差(Root Mean Square Error, RMSE)作为观测误差。选取3个美国通量网站点(Blackhill、Bondville、Brookings)作为实验数据, 结果表明: 同化结果中地表温度、显热通量的估算精度均有提高。其中Blackhill站的估算精度改进最大, 均方差由81.5W·m-2减小到58.4W·m-2, Bondville站均方差由47.0W·m-2减小到31.8W·m-2, Brookings站均方差由46.5W·m-2减小到45.1W·m-2。潜热通量估算精度在Bondville站均方差由88.6W·m-2减小到57.7W·m-2, Blackhill站均方差由53.4W·m-2减小到47.2W·m-2。总之, 结合陆面过程模型同化MODIS温度产品估算地表水热通量是可行的。     

土地利用变化模拟模型及应用研究进展

元胞自动机CA(Cellular Automata)和多智能体ABM(Agent-Based Model)模型是土地利用格局和演化模拟的主流方法,两者在模拟自然因素影响和人文驱动机制方面具有突出优势,为LUCC研究提供了重要的工具。当前,ABM无论在模型构建还是应用研究方面,CA和ABM均取得了显著进展。论文从数据基础、模拟尺度、CA转换规则挖掘、ABM行为规则定义、CA和ABM的耦合4个方面梳理土地利用模拟模型和方法的研究进展。并总结这些模型在虚拟城市模拟与理论验证、真实城市模拟与规划预测以及多类用地模拟与辅助决策等方面的应用。最后,总结土地利用模拟模型在精细模拟和全球变化研究方面存在的局限性,认为未来发展将主要集中于解决从2维模型向3维模型发展、大数据与规则精细挖掘以及大尺度模拟与知识迁移等问题。     

Formulation of Time Series Vegetation Index from Indian Geostationary Satellite and Comparison with Global Product

To study impact of climate change on vegetation time series vegetation index has a vital role to know the behaviour of vegetation dynamics over a time period. INSAT 3A CCD (Charged Couple Device) is the only geostationary sensor to acquire regular coverage of Asia continent at 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution with high temporal frequency (half-an-hour). A formulation of surface reflectances in red, near infrared (NIR), short wave infrared (SWIR) and NDVI from INSAT 3A CCD has been defined and integrated in the operational chain. The atmospheric correction of at-sensor reflectances using SMAC (Simple Model for Atmospheric Correction) model improved the NDVI by 5–40% and also increased its dynamic range. The temporal dynamics of 16-day NDVI composite at 0500 GMT for a growing year (June 2008–March 2009) showed matching profiles with reference to global products (MODIS TERRA) over known land targets. The root mean square deviation (RMSD) between the two was 0.14 with correlation coefficient (r) 0.84 from 200 paired datasets. This inter-sensor cross-correlation would help in NDVI calibration to add continuity in long term NDVI database for climate change studies.     

耦合ENVI-met与RAPID模型模拟3维异质植被场景亮温分布

遥感地表温度产品(LST)对陆面过程和全球与区域气候变化研究具有重要价值。但是当前卫星遥感观测到的地表温度分辨率较粗,多为混合像元,有明显的角度效应和时空变化特征,严重影响陆面过程等研究的应用精度。为定量评估3维异质性场景对亮度温度分布的影响,本文基于再分析资料,耦合3维小气候模型ENVI-met和3维热辐射传输模型RAPID,开展了地表3维温度场的模拟。研究以全球数值预报产品NCEP来提供ENVI-met所需的边界条件,分别进行了异质性植被场景的亮温水平分布和热辐射方向性模拟试验。在水平分布模拟研究中,基于机载G-LiHT数据(光学影像、激光雷达数据、LST产品)提供3维场景构建输入参数和温度场验证数据,并以美国某湿地区域的6个不同异质性场景为例进行了模拟与验证;在热辐射方向性的模拟研究中,基于机载WiDAS多角度多光谱数据构建了3维场景,并以黑河地区的2个异质性场景为例进行了模拟与验证。结果显示:(1)星下点亮温模拟值在水平分布上与G-LiHT的LST亮温值较为接近(标准误差RMSE为1.1 K),说明耦合模型能有效模拟不同空间异质性下的亮温分布。其中,裸土模拟误差最大(2.31 K),两种行播作物方向的模拟误差均小于1.2 K,道路宽度对模拟结果有影响(约为1 K);(2)耦合模型的多角度模拟结果与方向性亮温随视角的变化规律相一致,但变化速率和大小存在着差异。本文的模拟方法可以用于预测卫星过境时刻地表的热辐射方向性。     

土壤蒸发和植被蒸腾遥感估算与验证

地表蒸散发是土壤—植被—大气系统中能量和水循环的重要环节,它包括土壤、水体和植被表面的蒸发,以及植被蒸腾。随着地表参数多源遥感产品的快速发展,利用不同地表参数遥感产品估算地表蒸散发以及其组分土壤蒸发和植被蒸腾成为日常监测越来越便利,监测尺度已从单站扩展到田块、区域乃至全球。目前地表蒸散发双层遥感估算模型按照建模机理的不同可分为:系列模型、平行模型、基于特征空间的模型、结合传统方法的模型以及数据同化方法。本文从模型构建物理机制、模型驱动数据以及模型输出结果验证等方面总结了上述模型的发展历史和现状,并指出在模型结构与参数化方案的优化、高分辨率模型驱动数据的发展、土壤蒸发和植被蒸腾像元尺度"地面真值"的获取等方面都仍需进一步完善。     

Climate Change Studies Using Space Based Observation

Climate change is associated with earth radiation budget that depends upon incoming solar radiation, surface albedo and radiative forcing by greenhouse gases. Human activities are contributing to climate change by causing changes in Earth’s atmosphere (greenhouse gases, aerosols) and biosphere (deforestation, urbanization, irrigation). Long term and precise measurements from calibrated global observation constellation is a vital component in climate system modelling. Space based records of biosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere over more than three decades are providing important information on climate change. Space observations are an important source of climate variables due to multi scale simultaneous observation (local, regional, and global scales) capability with temporal revisit in tune with requirements of land, ocean and atmospheric processes. Essential climatic variables that can be measured from space include atmosphere (upper air temperature, water vapour, precipitation, clouds, aerosols, GHGs etc.), ocean (sea ice, sea level, SST, salinity, ocean colour etc.) and land (snow, glacier, albedo, biomass, LAI/fAPAR, soil moisture etc.). India’s Earth Observation Programme addresses various aspects of land, ocean and atmospheric applications. The present and planned missions such as Resourcesat-1, Oceansat-2, RISAT, Megha-Tropiques, INSAT-3D, SARAL, Resourcesat-2, Geo-HR Imager and series of Environmental satellites (I-STAG) would help in understanding the issues related to climate changes. The paper reviews observational needs, space observation systems and studies that have been carried out at ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) towards mapping/detecting the indicators of climate change, monitoring the agents of climate change and understanding the impact of climate change, in national perspectives. Studies to assess glacier retreat, changes in polar ice cover, timberline change and coral bleaching are being carried out towards monitoring of climate change indicators. Spatial methane inventories from paddy rice, livestock and wetlands have been prepared and seasonal pattern of CO₂, and CO have been analysed. Future challenges in space observations include design and placement of adequate and accurate multi-platform observational systems to monitor all parameters related to various interaction processes and generation of long term calibrated climate data records pertaining to land ocean and atmosphere.     

Carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Yellowstone National Park predicted from remote sensing data and simulation modeling

Background

A simulation model based on remote sensing data for spatial vegetation properties has been used to estimate ecosystem carbon fluxes across Yellowstone National Park (YNP). The CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model was applied at a regional scale to estimate seasonal and annual carbon fluxes as net primary production (NPP) and soil respiration components. Predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux of CO₂ is estimated from the model for carbon sinks and sources over multi-year periods that varied in climate and (wildfire) disturbance histories. Monthly Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) image coverages from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument (from 2000 to 2006) were direct inputs to the model. New map products have been added to CASA from airborne remote sensing of coarse woody debris (CWD) in areas burned by wildfires over the past two decades.

Results

Model results indicated that relatively cooler and wetter summer growing seasons were the most favorable for annual plant production and net ecosystem carbon gains in representative landscapes of YNP. When summed across vegetation class areas, the predominance of evergreen forest and shrubland (sagebrush) cover was evident, with these two classes together accounting for 88% of the total annual NPP flux of 2.5 Tg C yr^-1 (1 Tg = 10¹² g) for the entire Yellowstone study area from 2000-2006. Most vegetation classes were estimated as net ecosystem sinks of atmospheric CO₂ on annual basis, making the entire study area a moderate net sink of about +0.13 Tg C yr^-1. This average sink value for forested lands nonetheless masks the contribution of areas burned during the 1988 wildfires, which were estimated as net sources of CO₂ to the atmosphere, totaling to a NEP flux of -0.04 Tg C yr^-1 for the entire burned area. Several areas burned in the 1988 wildfires were estimated to be among the lowest in overall yearly NPP, namely the Hellroaring Fire, Mink Fire, and Falls Fire areas.

Conclusions

Rates of recovery for burned forest areas to pre-1988 biomass levels were estimated from a unique combination of remote sensing and CASA model predictions. Ecosystem production and carbon fluxes in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) result from complex interactions between climate, forest age structure, and disturbance-recovery patterns of the landscape.     

Explaining the eventual transient saturation of climate-carbon cycle feedback

Background

Coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations generally show that climate feedbacks amplify the buildup of CO₂ under respective anthropogenic emission. The effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback is characterised by the feedback gain: the relative increase in CO₂ increment as compared to uncoupled simulations. According to the results of the recent Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C⁴MIP), the gain is expected to increase during the 21st century. This conclusion is not supported by the climate model developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM). The latter model shows an eventual transient saturation of the feedback gain. This saturation is manifested in a change of climate-carbon cycle feedback gain which grows initially, attains a maximum, and then decreases, eventually tending to unity.

Results

Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM as well as an analysis of the conceptual framework demonstrate that this eventual transient saturation results from the fact that transient climate sensitivity decreases with time.

Conclusion

One may conclude that the eventual transient saturation of the climate-carbon cycle feedback is a fundamental property of the coupled climate-carbon system that manifests itself on a relevant time scale.     

Modelling the current and future spatial distribution of NPP in a Mediterranean watershed

The aim of this study is to use full spatial resolution Envisat MERIS data to drive an ecosystem productivity model for pine forests along the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. The Carnegie, Ames, Stanford Approach (CASA) terrestrial biogeochemical model, designed to simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle using satellite sensor and meteorological data, was used to estimate annual regional fluxes in terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP). At its core this model is based on light-use efficiency, influenced by temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. Present climate data was generated from 50 climate stations within the watershed using co-kriging. Regional scale pseudo-warming data for year 2070 were derived using a Regional Climate Model (RCM) these data were used to downscale the GCM General Circulation Model for the research area as part of an international research project called Impact of Climate Changes on Agricultural Production Systems in Arid Areas (ICCAP). Outputs of climate data can be moderated using the four variables of percent tree cover, land cover, soil texture and NDVI. This study employed 47 MERIS images recorded between March 2003 and September 2005 to derive percent tree cover, land cover and NDVI. Envisat MERIS data hold great potential for estimating NPP with the CASA model because of the appropriateness of both its spatial and its spectral resolution.     

利用ICA方法提取奥卡万戈三角洲水储量变化信号

利用重力恢复与气候实验(gravity recovery and climate experiment, GRACE)时变地球重力场模型计算得到非洲奥卡万戈三角洲地区2003-01—2014-12的陆地水储量变化信息,分别采用主成分分析(principal component analysis, PCA)和独立成分分析(independent component analysis, ICA)提取质量变化信号,并与全球陆地数据同化系统(global land data assimilation system, GLDAS)的水文模型进行对比。结果显示,在奥卡万戈河流域东北部,水储量表现出很强的周期性变化,两种数据空间特征分布的信号出现在相同位置的成分GRACE-IC1和GLDAS-IC1对应的时间序列的相关系数达到0.85。奥卡万戈三角洲地区水储量从2003-01—2011-10呈现上升趋势,两种数据空间特征分布的信号出现在相同位置的成分GRACE-IC2和GLDAS-IC3对应的时间序列的相关系数达到0.81,说明GRACE反演结果与GLDAS水文模型反演结果在研究区域内具有很强的一致性。引入全球降水气候中心降水数据和Water GAP全球水文模型数据对研究区域陆地水储量变化的原因进行分析。实验结果表明,相对于传统的多项式拟合方法,ICA可以在较大区域内直接对特定位置质量变化信号的时空特征进行提取;对比GRACE数据两种方法分解结果的第3成分可以看出,在空间尺度和时间尺度上,ICA方法对信号的分解能力要优于主成分分析方法。     

太湖地区HJ-1卫星CCD数据反演气溶胶及大气校正

针对HJ-1卫星CCD数据,利用改进的暗像元法反演气溶胶光学厚度(AOD),再利用反演的AOD对其进行大气校正。将反演的气溶胶与地基太阳光度计数据进行对比验证,发现当反演的AOD值大于0.2时,反演值与地基观测值的相关系数为0.964,符合MODIS业务化反演AOD的精度要求。再将反演得到的气溶胶带入6S辐射传输模型中,对HJ-1卫星CCD数据进行大气校正实验。结果表明,该方法能有效提高HJ-1卫星CCD数据大气校正的精度,更好地复原地物的真实光谱信息。     

An approach to estimate the evapotranspiration using NOAA/AVHRR DATA

Evapotranspiration (ET) is continued process wherein moisture from soil and vegetated surface is transferred to the atmosphere. Changes in evapotranspiration are likely to have large impacts on terrestrial vegetation. Evapotranspiration is a seasonally varying property at a given place; changes in it reflect the status of soil moisture and terrestrial vegetation. Through water balance, ET can include major shifts in vegetative patterns and or its condition leading to climate change. Therefore, in this paper, it is attempted to estimate the evapotranspiration over various land cover using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/ Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data at coarse spatial resolution of 1.1 km. For this purpose, a semi-empirical model has been proposed to estimate the ET. Regression analysis has been carried out to develop an empirical relation between individual land cover surface temperature and ET, which will be helpful to know the effect of each land cover surface temperature on ET. In which, it is observed that surface temperature over grassland is more effective on ET in comparison to other land cover in March 1999 on the Mupfure, Zimbabwe catchment area. This type of estimation will be helpful for climate modeler, climatologists, ecosystem modeler and regional planner.     

MODIS数据估算区域蒸散量的空间尺度误差纠正方法研究

探讨了使用中高分辨率卫星数据提供的地表分类以及植被指数信息与中低分辨率卫星数据相结合,在混合像元内部进行亚像元处理,以纠正混合像元造成的通量估算误差的方法。其意义在于利用中低分辨率卫星数据进行长期大面积蒸散监测时,只需要少量的中高分辨率数据支持,就可以在一定程度上改善监测结果,具有很好的可操作性。     

中国陆地1km AVHRR数据集

介绍了中国陆地范围的长序列AVHRR数据集及处理方法。数据处理链包括辐射标定、导航定位、几何精纠正、云检测、大气纠正、双向反射纠正以及多时相数据合成等一系列过程。大气校正采用SMAC方法．利用每日的大气参数对臭氧、瑞利散射、气溶胶和水汽柱等4个主要大气因子的影响进行了纠正。利用地面能见度和水汽压信息反演气溶胶光学厚度，利用最大植被指数法合成旬数据集。完成了1991-2003年的AVHRR数据集处理，形成了标准的数据集。     

基于地球静止气象卫星的地表参数遥感研究进展

地表参数定量遥感反演是遥感科学研究的重要环节.21世纪以来,地球静止气象卫星数据在地表参数遥感反演中受到越来越多的重视.本文对利用地球静止气象卫星进行地表参数遥感反演研究的进展进行了综述.文章首先简单介绍了当前正在运行的欧盟Meteosat、美国GOES-R、日本葵花和中国风云静止卫星系统,随后详细总结了不同卫星系统估...     

单窗算法的大气参数估计方法

根据地表热辐射传导方程,提出了一个简单可行且精度较高的专门用于从TM6数据中演算地表温度的方法——单窗算法.这一算法把大气和地表状态对地表热传导的影响直接包括在演算公式中.该方法需要两个大气参数进行地表温度的演算,即大气平均作用温度和大气透射率.本文论述这两个大气参数的估计方法:根据大气水分含量或地表附近空气湿度来估计大气透射率;通过分析标准大气剖面资料,尤其是大气水分和气温随高程的变化规律,根据地表温度推算大气平均作用温度.     

Theory of the local scale parameter method for EDM

The determination of a representative refractive index for the wave path is the main limitation of the attainable accuracy in electronic distance measurement. To overcome this limitation the length ratio method was initially proposed and later developed into the local scale parameter (LSP) method. In this paper, the mathematical model of the LSP method is derived for electro-optical distance measurement from first principles based on the physics of the atmospheric boundary layer. The model does not rely on standard atmospheres. It is shown that atmospheric temperatures and pressures must be observed at instrument stations but not at reflector stations. Appropriate LSP field procedures and the results of some field experiments are summarized. The method consistently produces accuracies of better than ±1 ppm. Use of the method is recommended for high precision (trilateration) networks, which need to be measured repeatedly and where absolute scale is not relevant.     

Large-scale estimates of gross primary production on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau based on remote sensing data

Vegetation gross primary production (GPP) is an important variable for the carbon cycle on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Based on the measurements from 12 eddy covariance flux sites, we validated a light use efficiency model (i.e. EC-LUE) to evaluate the spatial-temporal patterns of GPP and the effect of environmental variables on QTP. In general, EC-LUE model performed well in predicting GPP at different time scale over QTP. Annual GPP over the entire QTP ranged from 575 to 703 Tg C, and showed a significantly increasing trend from 1982 to 2013. However, there were large spatial heterogeneities in long-term trends of GPP. Throughout the entire QTP, air temperature increase had a greater influence than solar radiation and precipitation (PREC) changes on productivity. Moreover, our results highlight the large uncertainties of previous GPP estimates due to insufficient parameterization and validations. When compared with GPP estimates of the EC-LUE model, most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) GPP products overestimate the magnitude and increasing trends of regional GPP, which potentially impact the feedback of ecosystems to regional climate changes.