Examining evapotranspiration trends in Africa

Surface temperatures are projected to increase 3–4°C over much of Africa by the end of the 21st century. Precipitation projections are less certain, but the most plausible scenario given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is that the Sahel and East Africa will experience modest increases (~5%) in precipitation by the end of the 21st century. Evapotranspiration (E_a) is an important component of the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles that impact several climate properties, processes, and feedbacks. The interaction of E_a with climate change drivers remains relatively unexplored in Africa. In this paper, we examine the trends in E_a, precipitation (P), daily maximum temperature (T_max), and daily minimum temperature (T_min) on a seasonal basis using a 31?year time series of variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface model (LSM) E_a. The VIC model captured the magnitude, variability, and structure of observed runoff better than other LSMs and a hybrid model included in the analysis. In addition, we examine the inter-correlations of E_a, P, T_max, and T_min to determine relationships and potential feedbacks. Unlike many IPCC climate change simulations, the historical analysis reveals substantial drying over much of the Sahel and East Africa during the primary growing season. In the western Sahel, large increases in daily maximum temperature appear linked to E_a declines, despite modest rainfall recovery. The decline in E_a and latent heating in this region could lead to increased sensible heating and surface temperature, thus establishing a possible positive feedback between E_a and surface temperature.     

Atmospheric methane budget in Africa

This assessment of the atmospheric methane budget for the African Continent is based on a set of experimental data obtained in tropical Africa including methane emission from various biogenic sources, and biomass burning, and methane consumption in savanna and forest soils. Emission rates from the various sources, uptake rates of soils, and complementary data from the litterature allow calculation of regional methane fluxes by means of different data bases. Biomass burning, animals and natural wetlands are the three dominant sources of methane in Africa while rice paddy fields and termites appear as minor sources. The total methane emission is estimated to be in the range 20–40 MT of CH₄ per year, methane uptake by soils being less than 2 MT per year. Net methane emission from the African continent accounts for less than 10% of global emissions from terrestrial ecosystems.     

人类走出非洲

人类属于哺乳动物。哺乳动物是在65 MaBP(6500万年前)恐龙大灭绝之后逐渐发展起来的,在第三纪已经有了古猿,进入第四纪之后发展为直立人。大约20万年前出现了智人,进入新石器时代才进化为与现代人解剖学上完全一致的智人(Homo     

Rainfall teleconnections in northern and northeastern Africa

Summary In comparison to the time-series of rainfall in the Sahel-Sudan belt, given by several authors, runoff series from the Blue Nile and Atbara river (representing rainfall in western Ethiopia) and rainfall data from southern Somalia were described. No cross-correlation between Somalia and other series was found; the cross-correlation between the Sahel-Sudan belt and Ethiopia became significant only after about 1950. Simultaneously the persistence of rainfall anomalies in the Sudan-Sahel belt, including those of the Republic Sudan, exceeded the low values recorded until 1940.Since the vertically integrated water vapour transport over the belt of tropical summer rains came from SSW, i.e. from the semihumid to humid region of the northern Zaire basin, a possible contribution of biogeophysical effects due to manmade conversion of natural vegetation into arable lands ought to be discussed as a factor contributing to the increasing persistency and spatial coherency.

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Zusammenfassung Im Vergleich zu den bekannten Zeitreihen des Niederschlags für den Sahel-Sudan-Gürtel werden Abflußreihen des Blauen Nils und des Atbara (repräsentativ für den Westteil Äthiopiens) und eine räumlich gemittelte Niederschlagsreihe aus dem Südteil Somalias gegeben. Zwischen dieser und den anderen Reihen existiert keine Korrelation. Die Korrelationen zwischen dem Sahel-Sudan-Gürtel und Äthiopien waren bis 1942 schwach, nahmen danach aber signifikant zu. Gleichzeitig nahm auch die Persistenz der Niederschlagsreihen im Sudan-Sahel-Gürtel und in der Republik Sudan zu.Da der (vertikal integrierte) Wasserdampftransport über dem Gürtel der tropischen Sommerregen aus SSW kommt, d. h. aus dem semihumiden nördlichen Kongo-(Zaire)-Bekken, muß die mögliche Rolle biogeophysikalischer Effekte — hier die Umwandlung der natürlichen Vegetation in Ackerland — für die Zunahme der Erhaltungsneigung und der räumlichen Zusammenhänge diskutiert werden.

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With 3 Figures     

Climate-Induced migration and unemployment in middle-income Africa

One of the major unresolved questions in the study of vulnerability to climate change is how human migration will respond in low and middle-income countries. The present study directly addresses this lacuna by using census data on migration from 4 million individuals from three middle-income African countries over a 22-year period. We link these individuals to climate exposures in their origins and estimate climatic effects on migration using a fixed-effects regression model. We show that climate anomalies affect mobility in all three countries. Specifically, mobility declines by 19% with a 1-standard deviation increase in temperature in Botswana. Equivalent changes in precipitation cause declines in migration in Botswana (11%) and Kenya (10%), and increases in migration in Zambia (24%). The mechanisms underlying these effects appear to differ by country. Negative associations between precipitation anomalies, unemployment, and inactivity suggest migration declines may be due to an increased local demand for workers to offset production risk, while migration increases may be indicative of new opportunities in destinations. These country-specific findings highlight the contextually-specific nature of climate-migration relationships, and do not support claims that climate change is widely contributing to urbanization across Africa.     

Environmental stress and agricultural landownership in Africa

We examine how weather variability affects agricultural landownership rates in Africa, where at least half of the population depends on agriculture to earn a livelihood. In the absence of effective adaptation strategies, households that experience difficulties farming due to environmental stress might leave their land. With implications for demography – through migration – and political instability – when affected populations express grievances – changing landownership patterns could make existing development challenges on the continent even more difficult. We test our hypothesis that drier than average growing seasons will reduce landownership rates using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Our DHS dataset includes interviews with 850,961 households in 35 African countries between 2005 and 2017. Compared to regions experiencing weather near the historical average, those with five consecutive dry growing seasons before the DHS experienced a 6.93% decline in the landownership rate. For every additional dry growing season during the five years before each survey, the landownership rate fell by 1.38%. A host of robustness checks support our general conclusion that drying conditions are associated with lower landownership rates.     

Changes in Extreme Rainfall Events in South Africa

Extreme rainfall events can have severe impacts on society, so possible long-term changes in the intensity of extreme events are of concern. Testing for long-term changes in the intensity of extreme events is complicated by data inhomogeneities resulting from site and instrumentation changes. Using rainfall data from stations in South Africa that have not involved site relocations, but which have not been tested for inhomogeneities resulting from changes in instrumentation, a method of testing for changes in the intensity of extreme events is adopted. Significant increases in the intensity of extreme rainfall events between 1931–1960 and 1961–1990 are identified over about 70% of the country. The intensity of the 10-year high rainfall events has increased by over 10% over large areas of the country, except in parts of the north-east, north-west and in the winter rainfall region of the south-west. Percentage increases in the intensity of high rainfall events are largest for the most extreme events. While some inhomogeneities remain in the data used, the observed changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events over South Africa are thought to be at least partly real.     

Hydroclimate risk to economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa

In order to plan strategies for adaptation to climate change, the current effects of climate on economic growth need to be understood. This study reviews evidence of climate effects on economic growth and presents original analysis of the effect in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Case studies from the literature demonstrate that historically, climate has had significant and negative effects on household income, agricultural productivity and economic growth in SSA. This study focuses on the effects hydroclimatic variability on economic growth in the countries of SSA. We utilize a new national level precipitation statistic that incorporates spatial and temporal variability within each country. Country level economic growth statistics are analyzed in panel regressions. Persistent negative precipitation anomalies (drought) are found to be the most significant climate influence on GDP per capita growth. Temperature and precipitation variability show significant effects in some cases. Results imply the consideration of hydroclimatic risks, namely drought, may be the priority concern for adaptation to a changing climate for Sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion is contrary to the premise of many climate change impact assessments that focus on temperature increases as the primary concern.     

Cloudiness fluctuations over Eastern Africa

Summary Based on ESSA-satellite imagery for the period July 1969–June 1970, this study investigates spatial and temporal variations of East African cloudiness. The major results of this work show that the mean annual cloud amounts over East Africa are lower than those in adjacent tropical areas. One of the main reasons for this is the quasi-meridional alignement of the ITCZ over East Africa during the winter months. Within the area itself, the highest mean annual cloud amount values can generally be found in a diagonally oriented zone extending from the eastern Congo Basin to the Ethiopian Highlands. In contrast to the cloudiness north of the equator, which is dominated by oscillation periods in the range of 30–60 days, the cloudiness fluctuations encountered south of the equator show periodicities around 2 days (in the western part) and 20 days (in the eastern part), respectively. The different oscillation patterns, which are roughly separated by the Rift Valley area (longitudinally) and the equator (latitudinally), resemble the signals of the adjacent (African and Asian) monsoon regimes. However, during the winter months oscillation periods around 40 days can be found north of the equator, whereas a quasi-biweekly oscillation appears over the coastal areas in summer. Further details of the seasonal variability of East African cloudiness are discussed.With 8 Figures     

Carbon sequestration in Africa: The land tenure problem

The prospect of using tropical forest projects to sequester significant amounts of atmospheric carbon as one mitigation approach to climate change has received considerable attention. In the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) aspires to make such projects viable. This article examines the prospect of these projects in Africa, and argues that land tenure is much more than just a set of variables to be changed, and that instead it exists as a prohibitive obstacle to the implementation of afforestation and reforestation sequestration approaches. Five primary tenure problems are examined: (1) the disconnect between customary and statutory land rights, (2) legal pluralism, (3) tree planting as land claim, (4) expansion of treed areas in smallholder land use systems, and (5) the difficulty of using the ‘abandoned land’ category. The pervasiveness of these tenurial issues mean that the prospects for successfully implementing afforestation and reforestation projects in Africa are in reality quite weak. The current project approach to carbon storage in Africa needs to be significantly realigned with African reality in order for sequestration expectations to be practical.     

The streetlight effect in climate change research on Africa

The streetlight effect is the tendency for researchers to focus on particular questions, cases and variables for reasons of convenience or data availability rather than broader relevance, policy import, or construct validity. To what extent does the streetlight effect condition the state of knowledge about climate change in Africa? Analysis of Google Scholar search results, both general and within leading climate change-related journals, reveals that two proxies for objective need, population and land mass, are associated with a higher volume of scholarly attention. Countries with greater exposure to the negative effects of climate change and countries with less adaptive capacity do not receive more scholarly attention. Rather, I find evidence that factors like British colonial history, strong civil liberties, and to a lesser extent political stability − factors not directly related to risks from climate change − affect scholarly attention. The streetlight effect is evident in climate change research on Africa.     

Climatic variability and changing reproductive goals in Sub-Saharan Africa

Using 40 rounds of Demographic and Health Survey data from 18 sub-Saharan African countries, linked to high-resolution historical climate records, we analyze the relationship between climatic variability and fertility goals among reproductive-aged women. We find that, overall, women exposed to above-average temperatures report lower ideal family size and reduced probability of desiring a first or additional child. Results indicate that exposure to precipitation anomalies during the 12 months prior to the DHS survey is associated with a significant reduction in ideal family size, but longer 60-month spells of above-average precipitation are associated with increases in ideal family size. Effects of unusual precipitation are null for women’s fertility preferences at both shorter- and longer-term periods. Additional analyses show that this association varies across sub-populations defined by parity, education, residence in rural or urban areas, and region. In general, our results suggest that women exposed to adverse environmental conditions—namely abnormally hot or dry spells—will reduce their ideal family size and their preferences for having another child. In some cases, however, fertility goals may also decline during spells of favorable environmental conditions, possibly due to increased labor demands among women and their spouses. One implication of the observed links between climate variability and reproductive goals is that policymakers concerned with climate adaptation should work to ensure women have access to the necessary family planning resources needed to realize dynamic reproductive goals in a changing climate.     

Spatio-temporal variability of seasonal rainfall in western equatorial Africa

This study reveals homogeneous sub-regions over the poorly studied area of western equatorial Africa (10S?C7N and 7E?C30E). Monthly totals of 141 stations covering the period 1955?C1984 are used. The stations are grouped based on the similarity of their interannual rainfall variability. In addition to annual totals, four different seasons are examined separately for regionalization, an approach that has lacked in previous studies. The four 3-month seasons are defined as follows: January?CFebruary?CMarch (JFM), April?CMay?CJune (AMJ), July?CAugust?CSeptember (JAS), and October?CNovember?CDecember (OND). Two different algorithms are applied and compared: the rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) in conjunction with Ward's method, and the RPCA in conjunction with k-means method. The principal components that explain about 65% of total variance are retained and then varimax rotated. The corresponding scores are utilized as input for cluster analysis. Using Ward's method, five sub-regions are recognized for AMJ, JAS and OND and 4 sub-regions for JFM and annual data. The regions are geographically well distributed over the area and consist of roughly the same number of stations. The F-test is used to evaluate the homogeneity of each sub-region. The results show that all sub-regions are strongly homogeneous. Assuming the same number of clusters, the k-means method provides comparable spatial patterns with those of Ward's method. However, there are some differences, which are more evident in JAS and OND. Like Ward's method, the values of F-ratio for the k-means algorithm also confirm the homogeneity of all seasons/sub-regions. The interannual variability of rainfall for each season/sub-region is also provided and compared.     

Evaluating spatial scales of climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa

Summary Spatial scales of variability in seasonal rainfall over Africa are investigated by means of statistical and numerical techniques. In the statistical analysis spatial structure is studied using gridded 0.5° resolution monthly data in the period 1948–1998. The de-seasonalized time series are subjected to successive principal component (PC) analysis, allowing the number of modes to vary from 10 to 24, producing cells of varying dimension. Then the original rainfall data within each cell are cross-correlated (internal), then averaged and compared with the adjacent cells (external) for each PC solution. By considering the ratio of internal to external correlation, the spatial scales of rainfall variability are evaluated and an optimum solution is found whose cell dimensions are approximately 10⁶ km². The aspect of scale is further studied for southern Africa by consideration of numerical model ensemble simulations over the period 1985–1999 forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The hindcast products are compared with observed January to March (JFM) rainfall, based on a station-satellite merged analysis of precipitation (CMAP) data at 2.5° resolution. Validations for different sized areas indicate that cumulative standardized errors are greatest at the scale of a single grid cell (10⁴ km²) and decrease 20–30% by averaging over successively larger areas (10⁶ km²).     

Drought strategies in East Africa: The climatologist's role

The structures of the links in the chain drought, harvest failure, famine are examined. Possible interventions are feasible at the link between drought and harvest failure, to lessen or avert the impact. Such interventions, based upon knowledge of the climatology of drought-prone regions, may be discussed under three headings: short-term predictions, long-term predictions, and the analysis of spatial patterns of drought.Basically, there are three climate-based methods of producing a short-term (within growing-season) forecast of crop yield. The first is to use a water balance model to estimate soil moisture deficits. The second approach applies regression analysis techniques to the development of models of crop-climate relationships. The third is the possibility of long-range weather forecasts.Long-term predictions rely on the fact that drought occurrence is a function of the balance between rainfall and evapotranspiration. It is possible to develop scenarios of future trends in these two variables, arising from both physical and anthropogenic forcing. Some potential forcing mechanisms are discussed.Finally, analysis of spatial patterns of drought at the national level will permit deeper insight into the phenomenon. This has potential benefits for the planning process, such as the identification of drought-prone areas and of spatial compensation zones (regions commonly drought-free when the principal grain-producing areas are affected).Together, these three items form a comprehensive strategy for applied research into the physical and human factors underlying drought.