模糊因子分析在地下水污染评估中的应用——以河南省洛阳市为例

传统的多元统计法难以定量化表征不同污染源对单个样本点的影响,本文引入了一种新的方法——模糊因子分析法.将该方法应用于洛阳市地下水污染来源解析研究,通过模糊聚类和因子分析对研究区样品进行分类,探明主要的污染源类型及其对整个研究区和单个样品点的污染贡献率.计算结果表明:洛阳市浅层地下水主要有以下四个污染源:基岩风化、加工制...     

石家庄市地下水污染及其污染质排放的最优化控制

文章指出不考虑地域、条件,一律采用《工业“三废”排放试行标准》的不合理性。提出了用负荷控制来代替目前采用的污染质排放的浓度控制、总量控制,并从石家庄市地下水污染现状出发,建立了以该市地下环境系统最大限度容纳污染质为目标的线性最优化模型;得出该市防止地下水污染的排放浓度;求得了污水允许渗入量区间和地下水开采模数区间。     

Computer simulated versus observed NO2 and SO2 emitted from elevated point source complex

ISC-AERMOD dispersion model was used to predict air dispersion plumes from an diesel power plant complex. Emissions of NO₂and SO₂from stacks (5 numbers) and a waste oil incinerator were studied to evaluate the pollutant dispersion patterns and the risk of nearby population. Emission source strengths from the individual point sources were also evaluated to determine the sources of significant attribution. Results demonstrated the dispersions of pollutants were influenced by the dominant easterly wind direction with the cumulative maximum ground level concentrations of 589.86 μg/m³ (1 h TWA NO₂) and 479.26 μg/m³ (1 h TWA SO₂). Model performance evaluation by comparing the predicted concentrations with observed values at ten locations for the individual air pollutants using rigorous statistical procedures were found to be in good agreement. Among all the emission sources within the facility complex, SESB-Power (diesel power plant) had been singled out as a significant source of emission that contributed >85% of the total pollutants emitted.     

Challenges in urban water management in the United States

The growing intensity of use of water in the urban environment of the United States is posing significant challenges for its supply, utilization, and protection. The development of traditional water sources is becoming more difficult, and water suppliers are turning to conservation and reuse as alternatives. Price disincentives and better water use management are being utilized to attempt to deal with limited capacity for distribution of water in periods of high demand. Urban runoff presents significant localized flooding problems. Management of floods and floodplains is given focus under the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, which has as its goal the deterrence of development in flood-prone areas. Water quality goals, being developed and pursued under the Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974, are becoming more encompassing as the breadth of pollutants identified in the urban environment expands. Wastewater control strategies developed under the Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972 are expanding their emphasis upon nonpoint source pollution, as opposed to traditional emphasis upon point source pollution. Integrated management of the water resource will become increasingly necessary to adequately address water problems in the urban environment. State and local responsibilities for urban water management and control will likely increase.     

Environmental quality of Long Island Sound: Assessment and management issues

Estimated pollutant loadings to Long Island Sound (LIS) are presented and discussed in the context of current information on population trends and land-use characteristics within the drainage basin of the sound. For the conventional pollutants (BOD, N, and P) and for most of the metals examined, the fluxes to LIS from wastewater treatment plants approach or exceed the fluxes from riverine sources. Urban runoff is a significant source for only a few contaiminants, such as lead and petroleum hydrocarbons. Atmospheric flux estimates made for other are s are extrapolated to LIS, and this source appears to be significant for lead, zinc, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, and chlorinated pesticides. Continued population growth is projected through 2010, both in the urban centers of the western sound and in the coastal counties surrounding the central and eastern portions of LIS. This growth will place increased pollution pressure on the sound and increased demands on already scarce coastal and estuarine land-use categories. Close interaction between environmental planners, managers, and scientists is required to identify effective control strategies for reducing existing pollutant stress to the sound and for minimizing the effects of future development.     

地下水污染源识别的数学方法研究进展

地下水污染源识别模型可利用有限的观测资料估计污染源位置、污染物泄露强度及其泄露过程,是制定地下水污染修复方案的依据。在阐明地下水污染源识别基本问题基础上,综述了污染源识别研究的两大类数学方法,一类为直接方法,包括反向追踪法和基于正则化的方法;另一类为间接方法,包括基于优化的方法和基于概率统计的方法。同时指出了当前污染源识别数学方法应用中存在的主要问题:地下水污染源识别问题的复杂性、地下水有机污染问题和模型求解效率的低下性。对土壤-地下水的联合管理、基于物联网的地下水污染监测、对非水相流体（Non-aqueous Phase Liquid,NAPL）类污染源识别以及基于图形处理器（GPU）的异构并行计算将是未来研究的重点方向。     

Study on numerical simulation of organic pollutant transport in groundwater northwest of Laixi

The construction and hydrogeological area in the low hill, which is northwest of Laixi City and in the east of Shandong Province more precisely, is one of Dagu River’s groundwater source. Regarding COD as the typical pollutant according to general situation of groundwater pollution in aforementioned area, a three-dimensional advection-dispersion model was established to simulate the transport of organic pollutants under two accident conditions. In addition, the effect of corresponding dispersity was analyzed. The results show that COD transport is mainly in accordance with the direction of groundwater flow, pollutant concentration and its gradient as well as the rule of narrower pollution range in deeper stratum. Moreover, COD is mainly transported and diffused in groundwater of sandy soil in the first and second layers. However, under accident condition II, the pollutant concentration begins to decay gradually after its transport and diffusion tends to be stable. Besides, in terms of dominance, dispersion is to transverse transport of pollutants what advection is to longitudinal transport. If considering random dispersion, the final results see higher peak concentration of COD and longer transverse distance from pollution center compared to transport route. What’s more, the pollution plume changes and concentration isocline becomes slightly irregular.     

北京市采金矿山对生态环境的影响

北京市采金矿山生态环境问题,主要包括矿山次生地质灾害及环境污染。在研究环境污染问题时首先要调查评价采金矿山对北京市重要水源地“密云水库及王都庄水源地”水质污染隐患。其次要查明金矿区及周边地区水、土、生物资源污染状况。     

Design of an environmental assessment model on the effect of vehicle emission in greater Tehran on air pollution with economic sensitivity

Air pollution is the presence of pollutants in the atmosphere from anthropogenic or natural substances in quantities likely to harm human, plant or animal life; to damage human-made materials and structures; to bring about changes in weather or climate; or to interfere with enjoyment of life or property. With regard to the quality of air in most of the megacities of the world, vehicular air pollution plays an important role in deteriorating air quality. Air pollution in Tehran (Capital of the Islamic Republic of Iran) occurs in highly urbanized areas due to mobile anthropogenic sources which in-turn is hastened by unfavorable tohion sector is responsible for much of urban air pollution and can result in high ambient concentrations that harm people, structures, and environment. This paper examines and estimates the tonnage, concentrations and impacts of air pollutants along with control measures aimed at reducing the effect of pollutants released by transportation navigation, in Tehran.     

水环境非点源污染数学模型研究进展

水环境非点源污染正日益受到人们的重视，成为国内外学者所关注的热点领域。对水文模型、非点源模型的研究现状做了归纳分析，尤其是对模型与RS、GIS的集成进行了探讨，论述了两者结合的意义和重要性，提出了结合的层次性，归纳了结合的多种方式。最后对非点源污染模型的发展前景进行了分析和预测。     

Perceptible earthquakes in the broad Aegean area

A probabilistic estimate of seismic hazard can be obtained from the spatial distribution, of earthquake sources, their frequency–magnitude distribution and the rate of attenuation of strong ground motion with distance. We calculate the earthquake perceptibility, i.e. the annual probability that a particular level of ground shaking will be generated by earthquakes of particular magnitude, by weighting frequency–magnitude data with the predicted felt area for a given level of ground shaking at a particular magnitude. This provides an earthquake selection criterion that can be used in the anti-seismic design of non-critical structures. We calculate the perceptibility, at a particular value of isoseismal intensity, peak ground acceleration and velocity, as a function of source magnitude and frequency for the broad Aegean area using local attenuation laws. We use frequency–magnitude distributions that were previously obtained by combining short-term catalogue data with tectonic moment rate data for 14 tectonic zones in Greece with sufficient earthquake data, and where contemporary strain rates are available from satellite data. Many of the zones show a ‘characteristic earthquake’ distribution with the most perceptible earthquake equal to the maximum magnitude earthquake, but a relatively flat perceptibility between magnitudes 6 and 7. The maximum perceptible magnitude is in the fastest-deforming region in the middle of the Aegean sea, and tends to be systematically low on the west in comparison to the east of the Aegean sea. The tectonic data strongly constrain the long-term recurrence rates and lead to low error estimates (±0.2) in the most perceptible magnitudes.     

Method for Estimating the Doppler Factors of Relativistic Radio Jets

An expression for the intensity of synchrotron emission from a radio source (in the optically thin regime) in terms of the energy densities in the magnetic field and particles is obtained, based on a definition of a relativistic electron related to its rest energy. A relationship is obtained between the energy densities in particles E_e and the magnetic field E_H for a physical system containing a magnetic field and relativistic electrons in a minimum-energy state. A method for estimating the Doppler factors of the relativistic electrons has been developed. This method does not requires that all radio sources have the same radiation energies (brightness temperatures): it is sufficient that the energies of the magnetic fields and relativistic particles in the source be approximately equal. The method yields Doppler-factor estimates with reasonably good accuracy, even when there are modest deviations from energy equipartition in the radio source,making it applicable to many radio sources. The method is used to estimate the Doppler factor of the radio jet in CTA 21.

     

城市降水径流的污染来源与排放特征研究进展

综述了城市地表径流污染的成因、来源和排放特征的研究.城市降水径流污染来自3个方面:降水、城市地表和排水系统.其中,城市地表和排水系统是城市降水径流污染的主要来源.在具合流制排水系统的城市,20%~60%的径流污染(SS、COD和BOD₅)来自排水系统.在一次降雨过程中,城市降雨径流污染的排放一般存在初期冲刷效应,径流中污染物浓度的峰值一般提前于径流的峰值.但是由于影响初期冲刷效应的因素多而随机,使得初期冲刷出现的频率和程度存在明显的差异,而且很难建立初期冲刷与降雨特征和流域特征的通用关系.     

滇东南泸江流域岩溶地下水质量及污染影响因素研究

泸江流域是滇东南典型的喀斯特断陷盆地发育区,主干水系连接着多个断陷盆地及坡立谷.根据最新的地下水污染调查资料,流域喀斯特地下水质量总体以Ⅲ类为主,水质超Ⅲ类的岩溶水点中,东部多,西部少,且暗河占比最大,岩溶泉次之,机井最小.主要污染源是工矿企业及城镇生活垃圾污染源,研究分析了污染影响因素为环境水文地质条件的差异、污染源类型及排污强度、岩溶含水层防污性能的强弱程度和岩溶地下水污染机制的不同.详细阐述了岩溶地下水主要污染机制为落水洞或岩溶洞管灌入污染机制、溶隙溶孔含水介质渗透污染机制及浅覆盖型岩溶含水层越流渗漏污染机制.针对性的提出了3条防治对策:一是调整工业布局,切实减少、杜绝污染源;二是调查污染源及污染途径,重视环境水文地质条件对污染物迁移转化的影响;三是编制地下水开发与保护规划,制定相应的管理措施,有效保护水源.     

黄河下游平原地下水有机污染特征分析

以大量的地下水测试数据为基础,从污染源分布及水文地质条件入手,对黄河下游平原地下水中有机污染物类型及污染程度进行了深入研究。黄河下游平原地下水普遍受到有机物污染并形成多个典型有机污染区,有机物总检出率为35．5％,检出的有机污染物种类达29种,单个样品检出的有机物种类最多达19种,部分有机物含量超过地下水饮用标准,致使地下水质量恶化。地下水污染区的分布及污染程度与污染源的种类和分布具有很好的相关性。     

基于随机理论的地下水环境风险评价

针对确定性模型难以描述含水层非均质空间分布的问题,提出基于随机理论的地下水环境风险评价方法。以矩形场地地下水污染风险评价为例,采用蒙特卡罗法生成大量渗透系数随机场,模拟含水层参数各种可能的非均质空间分布,在此基础上建立场地地下水流模型与溶质运移模型,分别计算污染物在地下水中的迁移转化情况。统计大量随机模拟中污染事故发生的频率,当模拟次数足够多时,污染频率收敛于污染概率,污染风险即通过污染概率体现出来。该方法将模型参数设为满足一定分布特征的随机变量,避免了确定性方法得出的武断的评价结果,可为工厂的选址、水源地的选址等工作提供科学指导。     

长江江苏段区域供水水源地水质可达性研究

采用平面水流、水质有限体积法及黎曼近似解模型,在无结构网格上对偏微分方程进行有限体积法的积分分离散,模型具备有限单元法及有限体积法两者的优点。采用同步遥感、水量、水质实测资料对模型进行了率定验证,在对长江水源地、沿江污染源调查以及岸线稳定段分析结果基础上,进行污染源概化以及确定主要研究江段。在对概化的污染源计算出在设计条件下的污染带分布图,并计算出污染带长、宽随排污量变化曲线;在上述研究基础上,分析出长江各水源地及岸线稳定段的水质变化状况。对长江江苏段各主要排污口的污染带进行了计算,并对长江江苏段区域供水水源地的水质可达性进行了研究。     

邢台市岩溶水污染现状与演化趋势预测

由于地表水的污染和固体废物的乱堆放,导致邢台市岩溶水多处出现污染现象,且污染范围不断扩大,严重威胁下游水源地的供水安全。本文依据大量水质监测数据,评价了岩溶水的污染现状,采用数值方法预测了污染源继续存在和污染源得到治理两种情况下地下水污染的演化趋势,并分析了其对水源地的影响。预测结果表明:污染源存在时,地下水污染物Cr6+超标浓度等值线将以0.769m/d的速度扩散;在污染源得到有效治理和控制后,地下水污染物超标浓度等值线扩散速度将减少至0.402m/d,可见污染源治理对减缓地下水污染的扩散有重要作用。预测结果可作为选择地下水保护方案和污染治理措施的依据。      

农业非点源污染模型AnnAGNPS适用性检验

以大沽河典型小流域为研究区,借助GIS和相关资料提取参数,建立模型数据库。在此基础上,采用2001～2002年小流域出口径流量、泥沙和总氮监测数据优化参数、校准和验证模型,分析AnnAGNPS模型在大沽河典型小流域的适用性。结果表明,模型对日均径流量、泥沙及总氮输出的模拟能力较差,而对年均污染负荷估算结果比较理想。当前AnnAGNPS模型主要被用于评价流域非点源污染的长期影响及最佳管理措施的选择精度足矣。     

突发性水污染事件溯源方法

为快速准确地求解突发性水污染溯源问题,在微分进化与蒙特卡罗基础上提出了一种新的溯源方法。该方法将溯源问题视为贝叶斯估计问题,推导出污染源强度、位置和排放时刻等未知参数的后验概率密度函数;结合微分进化和蒙特卡罗模拟方法对后验概率分布进行采样,进而估计出这些未知参数,确定污染源项。通过算例与贝叶斯-蒙特卡罗方法进行对比,结果表明:该方法可使迭代次数有效缩减3/4,污染源强度、位置和排放时刻的平均相对误差分别减少1.23%、2.23%和4.15%,均值误差分别降低0.39%、0.83%和1.49%,其稳定性和可靠性明显高于贝叶斯-蒙特卡罗方法,能较好地识别突发性水污染源,为解决突发水污染事件中的追踪溯源难点问题提供了新的思路和方法。