Efficient sparse polynomial chaos expansion methodology for the probabilistic analysis of computationally‐expensive deterministic models

The sparse polynomial chaos expansion (SPCE) methodology is an efficient approach that deals with uncertainties propagation in case of high‐dimensional problems (i.e., when a large number of random variables is involved). This methodology significantly reduces the computational cost with respect to the classical full PCE methodology. Notice however that when dealing with computationally‐expensive deterministic models, the time cost remains important even with the use of the SPCE. In this paper, an efficient combined use of the SPCE methodology and the Global Sensitivity Analysis is proposed to solve such problem. The proposed methodology is firstly validated using a relatively non‐expensive deterministic model that involves the computation of the PDF of the ultimate bearing capacity of a strip footing resting on a weightless spatially varying soil where the soil cohesion and angle of internal friction are modeled by two anisotropic non‐Gaussian cross‐correlated random fields. This methodology is then applied to an expensive model that considers the case of a ponderable soil. A brief parametric study is presented in this case to show the efficiency of the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的理论框架

基于洪水灾害风险管理的背景分析,提出用广义分布函数及其广义熵理论统一描述、物理解析洪水灾害风险管理系统的各种不确定性信息。基于洪水灾害风险形成机制和风险管理理论与水利科学、信息科学、智能科学综合集成途径,提出由洪水灾害孕灾环境和致灾因子危险性广义熵智能分析、承灾体易损性广义熵智能分析、承灾体灾情广义熵智能分析和风险决策广义熵智能分析组成的洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的初步理论框架及其主要研究内容,在其它灾害风险管理中具有一定的参考应用价值。     

An improved methodology for filling missing values in spatiotemporal climate data set

In this paper, an improved methodology for the determination of missing values in a spatiotemporal database is presented. This methodology performs denoising projection in order to accurately fill the missing values in the database. The improved methodology is called empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) pruning, and it is based on an original linear projection method called empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The experiments demonstrate the performance of the improved methodology and present a comparison with the original EOF and with a widely used optimal interpolation method called objective analysis.     

Optimum design of stone column-improved soft soil using multiobjective optimization technique

A combined simulation–optimization-based methodology is proposed to identify the optimal design parameters for granular bed–stone column-improved soft soil. The methodology combines a finite difference-based simulation model and an evolutionary multiobjective optimization model. A combined simulation–optimization methodology is developed for two different formulations: (a) the minimization of maximum settlement and the minimization of differential settlement subject to stress constraints; (b) the minimization of maximum settlement, the minimization of differential settlement and the maximization of the degree of consolidation subject to stress constraints. The developed methodology is applied to an illustrative system. Different scenarios are evaluated to examine critical field conditions. The solution results show that the modular ratio and the ultimate stress carrying capacity of the stone column are the most important parameters for optimal design. The obtained results also show the potential applicability of the developed methodology.     

Texture Analysis of Grey-Tone Images by Mathematical Morphology: A Nondestructive Tool for the Quantitative Assessment of Stone Decay

Both a low-cost and easily handled nondestructive methodology and its validation criterion are proposed. The methodology is based on image analysis by mathematical morphology for the assessment of decayed stone surfaces in historic limestone buildings. It is adapted to follow the evolution, at macroscopic time and space scales, of stone materials used in art pieces and monument building stones. This methodology is applied to the quantitative analysis of textures of static grey-tone CCD video camera images representative of flat stone structures that cannot be handled. These structures line the walls inside an important church, Basílica da Estrela, built in the 18th century and located in the city of Lisbon. Detailed visual/tactile observation shows that these flat vertical structures are more or less damaged depending on their position inside the church. The damage is possibly associated with different environment conditions both from the atmosphere inside the church and from contact with the walls of the church. The presence of these pathologies breaks down the order and organization of sound rock textures introducing changes in the topographical and optical characteristics of the texture of the surfaces. This new methodology is based on the granulometry and covariance analysis of grey-tone images corresponding to the structures studied. The validation criterion allows the results of the proposed methodology to be compared to the results of a previous qualitative study made by experts in the field using visual assessment and monument mapping as a valid methodology to assess the degree of decay. This procedure is based on optical and topographical characteristics and type of decay of the stone surface, and the quantity of material lost from the surface of the panels during the year. As discussed in this paper, in the context of cultural heritage, the proposed methodology was validated and its results can be considered an improvement on and complementary to expert visual analysis and also to other nondestructive techniques.     

Prediction of California Bearing Ratio from Index Properties of Soils Using Parametric and Non-parametric Models

This work proposes a methodology to obtain from the soils properties the best prediction model for the California bearing ratio index. The methodology proposes three different prediction techniques: (1) the multiple linear regression, a classical parametric technique; and two non-parametric techniques: (2) the local polynomial regression (LPR) and (3) the radial basis network. The LPR is a known statistical method, but in the geotechnical engineering field is not in common use. Besides, although several research works have been published in this field, they do not include a robust procedure for making good comparison between different models. Here, a cross validation method is proposed with this aim. A data set of 96 samples from Peruvian soils is used to illustrate the methodology. To validate the proposed methodology, a data set from the literature is also analyzed.     

Neural network-based methodology for inter-arrival times of earthquakes

In this paper, an artificial neural network (ANN)?Cbased methodology is proposed to determine the probability of inter-arrival time (IAT) of main shock of six broad seismic regions of India. Initially, classical methodology using exponential distribution is applied to IAT of earthquake events computed from earthquake catalog data. From the goodness-of-fit test results, it has been found that exponential distribution is not adequate. In this paper, a more efficient ANN-based methodology is proposed, and two ANN models are developed to determine the probability of IAT of earthquake events for a specified region, specified magnitude range or magnitude greater than the specified value. The performance of ANN models developed is validated with number of examples and found to predict the probability with minimal error compared to exponential distribution model. The methodology developed can be applied to any other region with the database of the respective regions.     

Intrinsic groundwater vulnerability determination at the aquifer scale: a methodology coupling travel time estimation and rating methods

Groundwater vulnerability has been subject of much research due to the valuable information it provides concerning groundwater protection and exploitation potential. Up to now, most groundwater vulnerability studies adopt subjective systems of rating the various factors and subsequently, their results are often ambiguous and contradicting. Within the present study a methodology for the estimation of intrinsic groundwater vulnerability at the aquifer scale is presented. The methodology is based on travel time estimation from specified sources of pollution to the aquifer. Besides the deterministic calculation of travel times, the methodology provides a rating system for each pollution source, based on its relative severity and the estimated threat that it poses to the aquifer. Therefore, it can be regarded as a hybrid method that couples the advantages provided by the physically based methods with those of the subjective rating systems. The methodology is applied to the Neon Sidirochorion aquifer, Northeastern Greece, an overexploited aquifer where river waters, sea waters and lake waters interact, causing groundwater quality deterioration to the aquifer. The results indicated that the proposed groundwater vulnerability assessment methodology is well capturing pollution related to saltwater intrusion and agricultural activities, while it is concluded that the conceptual model is significantly affecting the vulnerability assessment results and therefore has to be previously developed.     

Continuous Facies Updating Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter and the Level Set Method

We present a methodology based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the level set method for the continuous model updating of geological facies with respect to production data. Geological facies are modeled using an implicit surface representation and conditioned to production data using the ensemble Kalman filter. The methodology is based on Gaussian random fields used to deform the facies boundaries. The Gaussian random fields are used as the model parameter vector to be updated sequentially within the EnKF when new measurements are available. We show the successful application of the methodology to two synthetic reservoir models.     

Methodology and its application for community-scale evacuation planning against earthquake disaster

In urban area, popular and property is accumulated in a small area, potential risk of earthquake disaster in urban community is great. Pre-disaster emergency evacuation zoning has become a significant topic of disaster prevention and mitigation research. Based on the present layout of evacuation facilities and shelters as well as the evacuation demands in urban communities, a systematical methodology for occupant evacuation against earthquakes on community scale was developed by employing spatial analysis techniques of Geographical Information System (GIS). The methodology included the following aspects: the distribution analysis of emergency evacuation demands, the calculation of shelter space accessibility, and the optimization of evacuation destinations. This methodology was applied to Lujiazui Street in Pudong, a new district located in Shanghai, China. It was found that the proposed methodology could be used to formulate pre-event planning for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation on a community scale, especially for organizing a rapid and smooth evacuation and optimizing the location allocation of shelters.     

Natural hazard chain research in China: A review

Most catastrophic disasters are triggered by multi-hazards that occur simultaneously or sequentially rather than singly; this can result in more severe consequences. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the occurrence, development, and transformation of hazard chains and comprehend their rules in order to predict secondary hazards. An effective action for reducing potential losses can be taken to block a hazard chain before it expands and transforms. Many studies have been conducted on hazard chains, some of which are of great significance. This article is a comprehensive literature review on hazard chains. First, an introduction to the definition, classification, and recognition of hazard chains is given. Then, some typical researches on mechanical studies of geological hazard chains, meteorological hazard, chains and geological–meteorological hazard chains are presented. On the basis of case studies on hazard chains, the following comprehensive methodologies are summarized: (1) engineering geology methodology, (2) integrated geographical assessment methodology, (3) system dynamics methodology, and (4) methodology of disaster physics. Reconstruction as a part of the disaster process is also reviewed. However, the research presented is still in the beginning stage; neither the mechanics nor the methodology is finalized. Research on hazard chains still has a long way to go.     

面向灾害风险评估的热带气旋路径及强度随机模拟综述

历史热带气旋记录时间序列较短空间差异大,热带气旋灾害风险评估经常面临样本不足,特别是超强台风及巨灾记录历史样本的问题,从而导致传统概率统计方法失效。过去20多年来,逐渐发展出一套完整的方法体系进行热带气旋路径及强度随机模拟,其特点是充分利用历史总体样本信息,生成大量符合历史样本特征的热带气旋路径及强度随机事件样本集,从而有效地解决了局地历史样本不足的问题。在回顾热带气旋的年频次、季节分布、路径分布、强度及影响范围时空规律研究进展基础上,系统综述了用于热带气旋路径及随机模拟的起始点模型、行进模型、终止点模型、洋面强度模型、陆地衰减模型及结果检验方法等领域的进展及不足,然后对其在世界各地的应用进行了概述,并对未来研究改进方向及应用领域进行了展望。     

Evaluating centralized return centers in a reverse logistics network: An integrated fuzzy multi-criteria decision approach

In this paper, the centralized return centers location evaluation problem in a reverse logistics network is investigated. This problem is solved via an integrated analytic network process-fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution approach. Analytic network process allows us to evaluate criteria preferences while considering interdependence between them. On the other hand, technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution decreases the number of computational steps compared to simple analytic network process evaluation. An important characteristic of the centralized return centers location evaluation problem, vagueness, is adapted to the methodology via the usage of fuzzy numbers in the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution approach. Finally, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the usefulness of the methodology. The results indicate that, this integrated multi-criteria decision making methodology is suitable for the decision making problems that needs considering multiple criteria conflicting each other. Also, by using this methodology, the interdependences between the criteria may be considered for these kinds of problems in a flexible and systematic manner.     

地学信息图谱方法前瞻

地学信息图谱是地理学发展的新契机。地学信息图谱研究不仅局限于表现,更是一种分析方法。地学信息图谱是图形、方法和认知三者的综合与统一。从地理学自身、GIS技术和"数字地球"战略三方面分析了地学信息图谱发展的背景。通过古代阴阳理论、物理学、生物学以及传统地图学,阐述了信息分析中的图谱方法。结合信息时代的特点,阐述了地学信息图谱方法的切入点。根据地理学发展的现状,提出地学信息图谱研究的起步工作主要有三方面：区域地理单元及其等级体系;地理单元的遥感影像特征分析;地学信息的表达方法。着重讨论了地学信息图谱研究关键要解决的三方面的地理学问题：地理对象的概括、地理学基本问题的分类、地理信息及其表达。     

Use of fuzzy sets for evaluating shear strength of soils

The shear strength of soils measured in laboratory tests may be different from the in-situ values. This is due to imperfections in the laboratory measurement of soil properties. Expert opinions, based on professional judgements and experience gained in related works, which are usually expressed linguistically, can be sought to assess the measurement biases. The theory of fuzzy sets is a useful tool for conveying this type of subjective information in a computer-usable form. A quantitative methodology which uses fuzzy set theory to represent and process expert opinions, updates the experimental results to more realistic values. A numerical illustration shows that the proposed methodology is simple to use, and produces consistent results. The methodology can be easily implemented using microcomputers to give rapid solutions.     

A coupled groundwater-flow-modelling and vulnerability-mapping methodology for karstic terrain management

A coupled groundwater-flow-modelling and vulnerability-mapping methodology for the management of karst aquifers with spatial variability is developed. The methodology takes into consideration the duality of flow and recharge in karst and introduces a simple method to integrate the effect of temporal storage in the unsaturated zone. In order to investigate the applicability of the developed methodology, simulation results are validated against available field measurement data. The criteria maps from the PaPRIKa vulnerability-mapping method are used to document the groundwater flow model. The FEFLOW model is employed for the simulation of the saturated zone of Palaikastro-Chochlakies karst aquifer, in the island of Crete, Greece, for the hydrological years 2010–2012. The simulated water table reproduces typical karst characteristics, such as steep slopes and preferred drain axes, and is in good agreement with field observations. Selected calculated error indicators—Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and model efficiency (E′)—are within acceptable value ranges. Results indicate that different storage processes take place in different parts of the aquifer. The north-central part seems to be more sensitive to diffuse recharge, while the southern part is affected primarily by precipitation events. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the parameters of hydraulic conductivity and specific yield. The methodology is used to estimate the feasibility of artificial aquifer recharge (AAR) at the study area. Based on the developed methodology, guidelines were provided for the selection of the appropriate AAR scenario that has positive impact on the water table.     

Using soil and Quaternary geological information to assess the intrinsic groundwater vulnerability of shallow aquifers: an example from Lithuania

Lithuania, in the Baltic region of northern Europe, is heavily dependent on groundwater resources for its public water supply, with a large proportion, especially in rural areas, derived from shallow Quaternary aquifers. A national groundwater-vulnerability methodology, based upon the UK approach, has been developed on behalf of the Lithuanian Ministry of Environmental Protection as a possible basis for the future protection of shallow groundwater resources for the rural inhabitants. Some modifications to the UK methodology were required to enable archive data to be used. The four aquifer classes depicted on the final groundwater vulnerability map are based upon the assessed relative permeabilities of the uppermost Quaternary deposits. The derivation of the classification of soil-leaching potential required a reassessment of Soviet-based soil wetness and particle-size classes and a calculation of subsoil-saturated hydraulic conductivity. A preliminary validation of the final maps against available shallow groundwater samples suggests that the methodology satisfactorily predicts the intrinsic groundwater vulnerability. The final methodology, based upon its low-cost approach using archive data, is relevant to the current needs of Lithuania and can be applied in other regions of similar geology and climate. Electronic Publication     

A continuous simulation approach for the estimation of extreme flood inundation in coastal river reaches affected by meso- and macrotides

Considering the joint probability of occurrence of high sea levels and river discharges, as well as the interactions between these sources of flooding, is of major importance to produce realistic inundation maps in river reaches affected by the sea level. In this paper, we propose a continuous simulation method for the estimation of extreme inundation in coastal river reaches. The methodology combines the generation of synthetic long-term daily time series of river discharge and sea level, the downscaling of daily values to a time resolution of a few minutes, the computation of inundation levels with an unsteady high-resolution two-dimensional model and the use of interpolation techniques to reconstruct long-term time series of water surface from a limited number of characteristic cases. The method is especially suitable for small catchments with times of concentration of a few hours, since it considers the intradiurnal variation of river discharge and sea level. The methodology was applied to the coastal town of Betanzos (NW of Spain), located at a river confluence strongly affected by the sea level. Depending on the return period and on the control point considered, the results obtained with the proposed methodology show differences up to 50 cm when compared with the standard methodology used in this region for the elaboration of flood hazard maps in accordance with the requirements of the European Directives. These results indicate the need for adaption of the standard methodology in order to produce more realistic results and a more efficient evaluation of flood hazard mitigation measures.     

模糊水文统计分析研究

水文统计分析的观测数据和调查数据往往不够精确,为此,提出在模糊样本条件下进行水文统计分析的方法体系,用模糊数进行模拟,并以范例作了简要说明.