TRMM卫星降雨雷达观测的南海降雨空间结构和季节变化

利用热带降雨计划卫星(TRMM)获得的雷达降雨资料,对南海及其周边区域(简称南海地区)降雨的空间分布和季节特征进行了研究。结果表明：南海地区的降雨在空间上分布很不均匀,同时具有显著的季节变化。除了副高活动、季风潮、冬季冷涌和热带低压活动等天气过程,南海周边广泛分布的山地地形对该地区的降雨分布也产生强烈影响,降雨呈现南部高于北部、东部高于西部的分布特征?与CAMP和台站资料相比,PR观测具有更丰富的空间结构,能够更好地体现降雨随时间和空间变化的特征、反映高大的山地地形对降雨分布的影响。     

TRMM卫星降雨雷达观测的南海降雨空间结构和季节变化

利用热带降雨计划卫星（TRMM）获得的雷达降雨资料，对南海及其周边区域（简称南海地区）降雨的空间分布和季节特征进行了研究。结果表明：南海地区的降雨在空间上分布很不均匀，同时具有显著的季节变化。除了副高活动、季风潮、冬季冷涌和热带低压活动等天气过程，南海周边广泛分布的山地地形对该地区的降雨分布也产生强烈影响，降雨呈现南部高于北部、东部高于西部的分布特征。与CAMP和台站资料相比，PR观测具有更丰富的空间结构，能够更好地体现降雨随时间和空间变化的特征、反映高大的山地地形对降雨分布的影响。     

浙闽沿岸南部泥质沉积中心表层沉积物粒度特征及其季节性差异

通过对浙闽沿岸南部泥质沉积中心15个站位夏季和冬季表层沉积物的粒度分析和对比,探讨了表层沉积物粒度的分布特征、季节性差异及其影响因素。研究结果表明,各站样品以黏土质粉砂为主,各粒度参数差别较小,平均粒径和标准偏差呈显著的负相关,偏态和尖态呈弱负相关。粒级—标准偏差曲线上,在4.92～6.46和25.32～33.27 μm之间存在高峰值,在11.16～13.39 μm之间为低谷值。粒度分布具有季节性差异,冬季样品各粒度参数分布范围均高于夏季,平均粒径（值）总体上比夏季的要小,偏态和尖态等值线的梯度明显大于夏季的。在粒级—标准偏差曲线上,冬季样品的变化程度要显著高于夏季的。粒度分布的差异主要受物质来源和海洋动力环境的季节性变化影响。     

东南极中山站-昆仑站断面最高和最低气温变化特征

利用中山站-昆仑站断面自动气象站2 m气温和同期再分析资料分析了南极沿海到内陆高原的最高和最低气温的变化特征, 并通过个例讨论了气温出现极端过程的天气背景. 结果表明: 南极中山站-昆仑站断面最高和最低气温季节变化趋势基本相似, 年际变化不明显. 最高气温标准偏差大于最低气温, 冬季气温标准偏差明显大于夏季, 且夏季气温变化幅度远小于冬季. 随海拔的增加, 最高气温年较差逐渐增大, 最低气温年变化的无芯率(气温没有明显的最小值程度)呈增大趋势, 夏季气温变化幅度逐渐增大, 冬季气温变化幅度的区域性差异不明显; 2005年7月25-31日的极端降温过程主要受到极涡、地面冷高压及下降风的共同影响.     

Spatial variability of rainfall trends in Iran

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the spatial variability of rainfall trends using the spatial variability methods of rainfall trend patterns in Iran. The study represents a method on the effectiveness of spatial variability for predicting rainfall trend patterns variations. In rainfall trend analysis and spatial variability methods, seven techniques were used: Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope method, geostatistical tools as a global polynomial interpolation and the spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I), high/low clustering (Getis-Ord General G), precipitation concentration index, generate spatial weights matrix tool, and activation functions of semiliner, sigmoid, bipolar sigmoid, and hyperbolic tangent in the artificial neural network technique .For the spatial variability of monthly rainfall trends, trend tests were used in 140 stations of spatial variability of rainfall trends in the 1975–2014 period. We analyzed the long and short scale spatial variability of rainfall series in Iran. Spatial variability distribution of rainfall series was depicted using geostatistical methods (ordinary kriging). Relative nugget effect (RNE) predicted from variograms which showed weak, moderate, and strong spatial variability for seasonal and annual rainfall series. Moreover, the rainfall trends at each station were examined using the trend tests at a significance level of 0.05. The results show that temporal and spatial trend patterns are different in Iran and the monthly rainfall had a downward (decreasing) trend in most stations, and the trend was statistically significant for most of the series (73.5% of the stations demonstrated a decreasing trend with 0.5 significance level). Rainfall downward trends are generally temporal-spatial patterns in Iran. The monthly variations of rainfall decreased significantly throughout eastern and central Iran, but they increased in the west and north of Iran during the studied interval. The variability patterns of monthly rainfall were statistically significant and spatially random. Activation functions in the artificial neural network models, in annual time scale, had spatially dispersed distribution with other clustering patterns. The results of this study confirm that variability of rainfall revealing diverse patterns over Iran should be controlled mainly by trend patterns in the west and north parts and by random and dispersed patterns in the central, southern, and eastern parts.     

南海东部69柱粒度分维指标与气候代用指标的分形比较及其意义

南海69柱粒度数据分析表明,晚更新世以来,粒度在0.2~11μm的标度范围内具有分形特征,粒度分维值DS为1.72~2.02,平均1.84;不同时期粒度分维值明显不同,氧同位素1期(冰后期)为1.88,氧同位素2期(冰期)为1.81,温暖的冰后期粒度分维值高且变化幅度大,寒冷的冰期粒度分维值低且变化幅度小,表明粒度分维值DS对沉积物的形成环境演化具有良好的指示意义。运用R/S分析法,对69柱沉积物的粒度分维值DS、UK37法估算的表层海水古温度、浮游有孔虫的δ18O、δ13C及其转换函数计算的冬季表层海水古温度、夏季表层海水古温度、季节性温差、沉积物SiO₂、CaCO₃含量9项指标进行尺度重整分析计算,得到其时间序列分维值D_H分别为1.2855、1.1712、1.2659、1.4244、1.2719、1.2214、1.2979、1.1366、1.1609。虽然这些气候指标是用不同物理单位测量的,但运用分形分析可以对它们进行数学比较,粒度分维值DS与季节性温差二者的时间序列分维值D_H最接近,从分形理论方面进一步证实粒度分维值D_S的变化主要反映气候的冷暖变化。综合粒度分维值DS及其他气候代用指标分析,识别出南海东部全新世以来的4次突发事件。     

Daily precipitation distributions over the intra-Americas sea and their interannual variability

The seasonal (March to October) and interannual variability of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of precipitation is examined for Meso-America, the eastern Pacific and western Atlantic, commonly referred to as the intra-Americas sea (IAS). Large-area precipitation CDFs were constructed over land and temperature pools greater than 28.5° C and between 26.5° and 28.5° C. The cooler waters tend to have their precipitation distributions shifted to lower values as compared to land and the western hemisphere warm pool (WHWP). The land and the WHWP have similar precipitation distributions from March to May. From June to October the land histogram of precipitation is narrower (less light and heavy rainfall) relative to the WHWP histogram. The highest probability of finding heavy to extreme precipitation over the WHWP is in June. From 1997 to 2008, in the summer months, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is related to the CDFs of precipitation over land, where during El Niño there is a shift toward lower daily rain totals. There is not a strong relationship between ENSO and the CDFs of precipitation over the ocean pools. Finally, a large WHWP in May-June-July is related to the CDF of precipitation over the WHWP in October, namely a shift towards higher daily rain totals and more extreme events. The size of the July WHWP explains 75% of the variability in the frequency of rainfall greater than 50 mm within the WHWP in October, and the root mean square error between the observed points and the linear models is about 0.005. However, the reason for this apparent predictability is not simply due to a warm seasonal anomaly leading to local thermodynamic effects. The concurrent correlation between the size of the WHWP in October and the CDF of precipitation therein is small, indicating a lack of a contemporaneous response. Here it is shown through atmospheric-oceanic reanalysis that rainfall extremes in October are dependent upon the development of the Atlantic portion of the WHWP in May-June-July. Large WHWPs in these months are consistent with an early onset of the Atlantic warm pool and atmospheric instability over Central America leading to extreme precipitation events in the fall.     

Synchronous variability changes in Alpine temperature and tree-ring data over the past two centuries

The understanding of extremes and their temporal distribution is useful in characterizing the behaviour of the climate system, and necessary for understanding their social and economic costs and risks. This task is analogous to the study of pointer years in dendrochronological investigations. Commonly used dendroclimatological methods, however, tend to result in an equalization of variance throughout the record by normalizing variability within moving windows. Here, we analyse a larger network of high-elevation temperature-sensitive tree sites from the European Alps processed to preserve the relative frequency and magnitude of extreme events. In so doing, temporal changes in year-to-year tree-ring width variability were found. These decadal length periods of increased or decreased likelihood of extremes coincide with variability measures from a long-instrumental summer temperature record representative of high-elevation conditions in the Alps. Intervention analysis, using an F-test to identify shifts in variance, on both the tree-ring and instrumental series, resulted in the identification of common transitional years. Based on a well-replicated network of sites reflecting common climatic variation, our study demonstrates that the annual growth rings of trees can be utilized to quantify past frequency and amplitude changes in extreme variability. Furthermore, the approach outlined is suited to address questions about the role of external forcing, ocean-atmosphere interactions, or synoptic scale changes in determining patterns of observed extremes prior to the instrumental period.     

Recent rainfall and runoff variability in central Argentina

Laguna Mar Chiquita, a closed, shallow, hypersaline lake in central Argentina (∼30–31°S, 62–63°W), is a sensitive marker of high- and low-frequency changes in regional hydrology and, therefore, of climatic changes at middle latitudes in southeastern South America. Its drainage basin and neighboring areas, including the Sierras Pampeanas de Córdoba, and Sierra del Aconquija (27–33°S, 62–66°W), are under the influence of diverse climate drivers that determine a complex behavior in rainfall and runoff dynamics. Statistical (Mann–Kendall and seasonal Kendall trend tests) and spectral analyses (Fourier and wavelet transform) of the available data show that: (a) there is significant evidence that rainfall has increased in the region since the 2nd half of the 20th century; (b) concurrently, runoff has also increased, particularly in the northern tributaries (north of 31°S) of Mar Chiquita; (c) northern rainfall and discharge records mostly exhibit an apparent near-decadal (also near-bidecadal in runoff) climatic signature; and d) the ENSO influence on rainfall appears faint but discernible in the southern (south of ∼31°S) portion.     

Incidence and trend of blocking action situations on the temperature and precipitation in Argentina

In southern South America and for the period 1960-2011, frequencies and trends of seasonal blocking situations (Bs) determined at 100, 70 and 40° W (B100, B70 and B40), respectively are estimated. The effect of such situations on temperature and precipitation is also analyzed. The distribution of occurrences of B100, B70 and B40 peaks in spring and has minimum values in summer; trends are positive in summer and fall and negative in winter and spring. To the north of approximately 38° S, B70 determines negative temperature anomalies (ΔT) over the entire country during the four seasons and B40 in spring and summer. Except for summer, rainfall is greater than normal when Bs occur at both longitudes. To the south of approximately 38° S, B100 give place to negative ΔT. The frequencies and amounts of precipitation are greater in spring. This area is limited to the northernmost northern (southernmost southern) area in fall (summer). According to the signs of the trends of the Bs and to the associated values of temperature and precipitation, the way in which they may have contributed to the change in both variables during 1960-2011 is inferred.     

Homogeneous Indian Monsoon rainfall: Variability and prediction

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall is known to have considerable spatial variability, which imposes some limitations on the all-India mean widely used at present. To prepare a spatially coherent monsoon rainfall series for the largest possible area, fourteen subdivisions covering the northwestern and central parts of India (about 55% of the total area of the country), having similar rainfall characteristics and associations with regional/global circulation parameters are merged and their area-weighted means computed, to form monthly and seasonal Homogeneous Indian Monsoon (HIM) rainfall series for the period 1871–1990. This paper includes a listing of monthly and seasonal rainfall of HIM region. HIM rainfall series has been statistically analysed to understand its characteristics, variability and teleconnections for long-range prediction. HIM rainfall series isfound to be homogeneous, Gaussian distributed and free from persistence. The mean (R) rainfall is 757 mm (87% of annual) and standard deviation (S) 119 mm, with a Coefficient of Variation (CV) of 16%. There were 21 dry (K, -<R S) and 19 wet (R _i R + S) years during 1871–1990. There were clusters of frequent negative departures during 1899–1920 and 1965–1987 and positive departures during 1942–1961. The recent three decades show very high rainfall variability with 10 dry and 6 wet years. The decadal averages were alternatively positive and negative for three consecutive decades, viz., 1871–1900 (positive); 1901–1930 (negative); 1931–1960 (positive) and 1961–1990 (negative) respectively. Significant QBO and autocorrelation at 14th lag have been found in HIM rainfall series. To delineate the changes in the climatic regime of the Indian summer monsoon, sliding correlation coefficients (CCs) between HIM rainfall series and (i) Bombay msl pressure, (ii) Darwin msl pressure and (iii) Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature over the period 1871–1990 have been examined. The 31-year sliding CCs showed the systematic turning points of positive and negative CCs around the years, 1900 and 1940. In the light of other corroborative evidences, these turning points seem to delineate ‘meridional’ monsoon regime during 1871–1900 and 1940–1990 and ‘zonal’ monsoon regime during 1901–1940. The monsoon signal is particularly dominant in many regional and global circulation parameters, during 1951–1990. Using the teleconnections ofHIM series with 12 regional/global circulation parameters during the recent 36-year period 1951–86 regression models have been developed for long-range prediction. In the regression equations 3 to 4 parameters were entered, explaining upto 80% of the variance, depending upon the data period. The parameters that prominently enter the multiple regression equations are (i) Bombay msl pressure, (ii) April 500 mb Ridge at 75°E, (iii) NH temperature, (iv) Nouvelle minus Agalega msl pressure and (v) South American msl pressure. Eleven circulation parameters for the period 1951–80 were subjected to Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the PC’s were used in the regression model to estimate HIM rainfall. The multiple regression with three PCs explain 72% of variance in HIM rainfall.     

Climate extreme and its linkage to regional drought over Idaho, USA

To investigate consequences of climate extreme and variability on agriculture and regional water resource, twenty-seven climatic indices of temperature and precipitation over Idaho, USA, were computed. Precipitation, mean temperature and maximum temperature, self-calibrated Palmer Drought Index and Standardized Precipitation Index for 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month time scales were used to identify spatial and temporal distribution of climatic extreme and variability as well as drought frequency and magnitude. Seven oceanic indices were also used to detect teleconnections between climatic indices and regional droughts. The analyses were conducted for 56 meteorological stations, during 1962?C2008, characterized by a long-term and high-quality data set. The result indicates that decreasing trends and increasing trends are identified for precipitation and temperature, respectively. Consequently, it appears that frost and ice days dwindle as growing season (May?CAugust) length, tropical nights and summer days increase. Given current climate conditions, the results also imply that these trends will continue in the future possibly driven by uncertain climate variability. We anticipate that these indices explained by teleconnections will improve drought-forecasting capability in this region.     

Key pluvial parameters in assessing rainfall erosivity in the south-west development region,Romania

Located in the south-western part of Romania, the south-west development region overlaps the main relief forms: the Carpathians mountains, the Getic Subcarpathians, the Getic piedmont, the Romanian plain and the Danube valley. The study aims at providing an overview on the main pluvial parameters and their role in assessing rainfall erosivity in the study area. The authors assessed the occurrence, frequency and magnitude of some of the most significant pluvial parameters and their impact on the climatic aggressiveness in the study area. Thus, the monthly and annual mean and extreme climatic values for different rainfall related parameters (e.g., maximum amounts of precipitation/24 hr, heavy rainfall), as well as relevant indices and indicators for pluvial aggressiveness (Fournier, Fournier Modified, Angot) were calculated. The rainfall erosivity was assessed in order to provide both the spatial distribution of the triggering extreme weather phenomena and the resulted intensity classes for the analysed indices and indicators. The authors used long-term precipitation records (1961–2010) for the selected relevant meteorological stations distributed throughout all analysed relief units.     

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.     

南水北调对北方干旱化趋势可能影响的初步分析

使用地表土壤水量平衡模式和大气能量平衡模式，对南水北调中线工程对华北地区的可能局地气候效应进行了虚拟模拟试验，得出了在不同调水方案和气候情景假定下华北地区可能出现的局地土壤水分、蒸发、温度和降水的变化。结果表明，不同调水量在不同时间、不同气候条件下的气候效应是有差别的，并与降水的季节变化有关。总体而言，在给定气候背景下调入水可以改变土壤水含量和径流，并使局地夏半年温度降低、冬半年温度有所升高；夏半年局地降水量和蒸发量有所增加，而冬半年变化不大。因此，在目前情况下南水北调中线工程的实施不仅可以减缓华北地区水资源紧缺的矛盾，而且有可能在一定程度上改善当地的局地干旱气候环境，进而有利于生态环境的良性循环和有序人类活动的可持续发展。     

1971-2015年青藏高原东北边坡降水特征及主要影响因子分析

利用1971-2015年青藏高原东北边坡20个站的降水观测资料和美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）再分析资料,分析了青藏高原东北边坡年、季降水量空间分布和变化趋势,并采用相关系数法分析和讨论其所受的影响因素。结果表明：青藏高原东北边坡地区的年、季平均降水量空间分布极为不均,总体上是从南向北递减,东北部最少;青藏高原东北边坡年、夏、秋季平均降水量北部呈上升趋势,南部呈下降趋势;青藏高原东北边坡地区年平均降水量呈下降趋势,气候倾向率为-3.1 mm·（10a）^-1,其中春、秋、冬季平均降水量呈上升趋势,夏季平均降水量呈明显下降趋势;青藏高原东北边坡地区年、季降水量的显著周期为2～3 a、4～5 a及10～15 a;南亚季风对青藏高原东北边坡地区降水量影响显著,为明显的正相关,西风指数对高原东北边坡地区降水量有一定影响,相关不是很明显,与其北部降水量呈正相关,南部降水量呈负相关。     

Stable isotope study of cave percolation waters in subtropical Brazil: Implications for paleoclimate inferences from speleothems

We analyze the interannual monthly variability of oxygen isotope ratios in data from IAEA stations along the Atlantic coast of South America between 23° and 34° S to evaluate the influence of parameters such as temperature, rainfall amount and moisture source contribution on meteoric water recharging two karst systems in subtropical Brazil. In addition, a 2 year monitoring program performed on soil and cave drip and rimstone pool waters from sampling sites with contrasting discharge values and located at 100 and 300 m below the surface in the Santana Cave System (24°31′ S; 48°43′ W), is used to test the influence of hydrologic and geologic features on the temporal variations of seepage water δ¹⁸O.

Interannual monthly variations in δ¹⁸O of rainfall reflect primarily regional changes in moisture source contribution related to seasonal shifts in atmospheric circulation from a more monsoonal regime in summer (negative values of δ¹⁸O) to a more extratropical regime in winter (positive values of δ¹⁸O). Variations in groundwater δ¹⁸O indicate that the climatic signal of recent rainfall events is rapidly transmitted through the relatively deep karst aquifer to the cave drip waters, regardless of location of collection in the cave. In addition, the data also suggest that water replenishment in the system is triggered by the increase in hydraulic head during periods when recharge exceeds the storage capacity of the soil and epikarst reservoirs. Significant perturbations in the groundwater composition, characterized by more positive values of δ¹⁸O, are probably connected to an increased Atlantic moisture contribution associated with extratropical precipitation. This implies that the δ¹⁸O of speleothems from caves in this region may be a suitable proxy for studying tropical–extratropical interactions over South America, a feature that is intrinsically related to the global atmospheric circulation.     

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall: case of Bizerte-Ichkeul Basin (Northern Tunisia)

This study examines spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Bizerte-Ichkeul Watershed. The basin, located in the extreme north of Tunisia, covers an area of 3084 km². Thirteen rainfall stations, with continuous monthly precipitation records over the period (1970–2011), were considered in the analysis. Two methods were used. In the first, the dimensionless standardized precipitation ratio is applied to examine precipitation temporal variation. The second method is represented by continuous wavelet analysis for the precipitation spatial analysis and the identification of the origin of its variability. The study of temporal variability of annual rainfall showed severe persistent and recurrent drought episodes over the period (1977–2001). Wavelet analysis resulted in detecting the modes and origins of precipitation variability. Three energy bands were clearly identified: (1, 2–4, and 4–8 years) for the entire watershed. The visualization of the power distribution showed that the observed modes of variability are different in their power distributions from one station to another. The approach adopted allowed the identification of two groups with the same precipitation frequency and temporal variation. These groups were defined according to the difference in occurrence of the frequency band for each station.     

华北地区大气降水稳定同位素特征与水汽来源

选取华北地区的包头,石家庄,天津,太原IAEA/WMO/GNIP大气降水的氢氧同位素组成的资料,分析了华北地区降水稳定同位素的时空分布特征及其影响因素.研究表明:华北地区降水中的δ18O值都表现出明显的“夏高冬低”的季风气候特征,夏季表现雨量效应,冬季温度效应明显;华北各地区降水线方程与全国及全球降水线相比,斜率和截距都偏小,揭示了华北地区降水是在非瑞利条件下进行的,并且除天津外,其他地区稳定同位素特征还受到降水过程中局地水汽循环的影响;d值总体表现出冬高夏低的季节变化特征,说明了冬季风和夏季风期间降水的水源区蒸发条件不同.     

中国极端气温季节变化对全球变暖减缓的响应分析

利用经过质量控制和均一化处理的中国气象站点1979-2014年逐月最高气温和最低气温资料,对806个无缺测站的数据进行趋势分析和比较,并且计算了各季节对变暖减缓的贡献率,结果表明:中国区域极端气温(最高和最低气温)存在变暖减缓或变冷现象,而不同区域在不同季节对全球变暖减缓的响应程度不同.相比于1979-1999年,2000-2014年极端气温在全国大部分地区春、冬季有明显的变暖减缓或者变冷现象,在长江流域以北大部分地区极端气温在夏季变暖减缓或变冷现象明显,而秋季全国大部分地区最低气温有明显的增暖现象.全国许多地区春季是导致极端气温变暖减缓或变冷的最主要季节,而夏、秋、冬季则是导致部分地区变暖减缓或变冷的主要季节,此外秋季也是导致全国许多地区最低气温变暖的最主要季节.我国大部分地区2000-2014年的变暖减缓或变冷趋势可能受太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)冷位相的调控,而PDO冷位相对最低气温的影响范围更大一些.