Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem

In this review we consider an interdisciplinary problem of earthquake prediction involving economics. This joint research aids in understanding the prediction problem as a whole and reveals additional requirements for seismostatistics. We formulate the problem as an optimal control problem: Prossessing the possibility to declare several types of alerts, it is necessary to find an optimal changing alert types; each successful prediction prevents a certain amount of losses; total expected losses are integrated over the semi-infinite time interval. The discount factor is included in the model. Algorithmic and exact solutions are indicated.This paper is based on the recent results byMolchan (1990, 1991, 1992).     

In-situ dissolution experiment of radiolaria in the central North Pacific ocean

Monospecific phaeodarian radiolarian assemblages of Castanidium longispinum were suspended in plastic cages built with 225 μm nylon mesh at different water depths from 378 to 5582 m in the central North Pacific. Weight losses of these samples after a suspension period of 61 days were used to determine dissolution rates. The highest weight losses were observed at 378 m where samples lost ～90% of their initial weight. Through the main thermocline weight losses decreased from 90 to 60% and reached a constant value of 40% below it. These weight losses are roughly an order of magnitude higher than those reported by earlier workers. The higher weight losses can be attributed in part to the more soluble nature of the phaeodarian radiolarian skeletons and in part to the improved experimental technique. Kinetic considerations show that temperature is the major factor that controls silica dissolution rates in the ocean. Using an Arrehnius plot for the apparent rate constants, it can be shown that in surface water dissolution rats should be two orders of magnitude higher than in deep water below the main thermocline.     

Optimization for performance-based design under seismic demands,including social costs

Performance-based design in earthquake engineering is a structural optimization problem that has, as the objective, the determination of design parameters for the minimization of total costs, while at the same time satisfying minimum reliability levels for the specifi ed performance criteria. Total costs include those for construction and structural damage repairs, those associated with non-structural components and the social costs of economic losses, injuries and fatalities. This paper presents a general framework to approach this problem, using a numerical optimization strategy and incorporating the use of neural networks for the evaluation of dynamic responses and the reliability levels achieved for a given set of design parameters. The strategy is applied to an example of a three-story offi ce building. The results show the importance of considering the social costs, and the optimum failure probabilities when minimum reliability constraints are not taken into account.     

Cost of environmental flow during water scarcity in the arid Huasco River basin,northern Chile

Abstract

This investigation presents a new approach to estimate the costs resulting from the introduction of environmental flows in the arid Huasco River basin, located in the Atacama Region of Chile, one of the most sophisticated private water markets worldwide. The aim is to provide information to the water users, who hold the right to decide on water use, and thereby support the inclusion of environmental flows into decision-making. Costs are estimated by calculating the loss of agricultural productivity resulting from a trade-off between users and environmental flow requirements in times of water scarcity. Based on environmental flow requirements calculated by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), and hydrological supply-and-demand modelling using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model, economic parameters of water productivity are calculated for the main economic sectors and then included in hydrological analysis. The study presents concrete costs that might be imposed on the water users during times of water scarcity, and confirms that there are significant variations in water productivity between different sectors.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Wagnitz, P., Núñez, J., and Ribbe, L., 2014. Cost of environmental flow during water scarcity in the arid Huasco River basin, northern Chile. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 700–712.     

Model updating and seismic loss assessment for a portfolio of bridges

The majority of bridge infrastructures in Italy were built in the 1960s and ‘70s without any specific seismic provision being made. As a consequence, it is expected that these bridges would be highly vulnerable if subjected to a significant seismic event. Given this background, it is natural that the rapid and accurate assessment of economic losses incurred to the bridge infrastructure as a result of such an event could play a crucial role in emergency management in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. Focusing on the infrastructure system of highway bridges in the Campania region in Italy, this paper demonstrates how both state-of-the-art methodologies in portfolio loss assessment and the available data can be used to assess the probability distribution of the repair costs incurred due to the 1980 Irpinia earthquake. Formulating a probabilistic loss assessment for a portfolio of bridges as a standard Monte Carlo simulation problem helps to resolve the spatial risk integral efficiently. One of the specific features of this case study is the use of statistical methods for updating models of: (a) ground motion predictions, (b) vulnerability/fragility and (c) exposure/costs, based on the available data. It has been observed that alternative hypotheses concerning the ground motion correlation structure can significantly affect the distribution of direct economic losses. Furthermore, updating the ground motion prediction based on available recordings may significantly reduce the dispersion in the estimate of the direct economic losses.     

Dynamic optimal ground water remediation including fixed and operation costs

In time-varying ground water remediation, the lack of an optimal control algorithm to simultaneously consider fixed costs and time-varying operating costs makes it nearly impossible to obtain an optimal solution. This study presents a novel algorithm that integrates a genetic algorithm (GA) and constrained differential dynamic programming (CDDP) to solve this time-varying ground water remediation problem. A GA can easily incorporate the fixed costs associated with the installation of wells. However, using a GA to solve for time-varying policies would dramatically increase the computational resources required. Therefore, the CDDP is used to handle the subproblems associated with time-varying operating costs. A hypothetical case study that incorporates fixed and time-varying operating costs is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Simulation results indicate that the fixed costs can significantly influence the number and locations of wells, and a notable total cost savings can be realized by applying the novel algorithm herein.     

Interception losses from Miscanthus at a site in south‐east England—an application of the Gash model

Concern has been expressed that Miscanthus x giganteus, a dedicated biomass crop, may have a high water use, with implications for its economic yield and impacts on water resources. There is particular uncertainty about one component of the water use, the interception loss. Measurements of the interception loss were made in a plot of the crop at a site in south‐east England, during 1997/1998 and 1998/1999. The measured interception losses were 25 and 24% of gross rainfall, respectively. Winter interception losses are relatively high, which is attributed to the slow rate of leaf loss. A Monte Carlo procedure was used to optimize three of the parameters of the Gash interception model on the 1997/1998 data. The simulated values had an uncertainty of 1·1 mm per storm in 1997/1998 and 2·9 mm per storm in 1998/1999. The model was also used to investigate the potential effect of the evaporation rate being overestimated due to the measurements being made in an experimental plot. This showed that the interception losses might be reduced to 21 and 18% in field scale plantations. A consideration of the relative interception rate demonstrated that the crop behaved more like a forest, in terms of the interception losses, during the winter months. © Crown Copyright 2010. Reproduced with the permission of Her Majesty's Stationery Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic zoning for initial‐ and total‐cost minimization

We consider two design criteria to study seismic zoning. In the first, codes require that structures be designed for some specified values. Zoning is then optimal when it minimizes the expected present value of the initial costs of all structures to be built in the region being zoned. In the second criterion, it is designed so that the present value of the total cost is minimized, including initial and maintenance costs as well as losses due to damage and failure. We will call these criteria zoning for the initial‐ and total‐cost minimization, respectively. It is shown that under certain conditions, the boundaries coincide with isoparametric curves and the problem may be solved in one dimension. We also deal with problems not reducible to a single dimension. Different methods are proposed to solve the various kinds of problems. The work ends with some illustrative examples. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于费用效益分析的建筑物加固决策体系研究

突发地震灾害往往带来巨大的生命财产损失,对建筑物进行科学合理的震前加固及震后功能快速修复;对降低地震灾害损失具有重要意义。通过定义社会贴现率和残值率等加固效益分析评价参数,基于加固费用模型和地震直接经济损失模型进行了加固费用现值与效益现值计算;采用费用效益比（Cost-Benefit Ratio,CBR）作为评价指标对建筑物进行加固决策分析,并最终建立了相应的加固决策体系。最后将提出的理论、模型及方法集成于课题组研发的"中国地震灾害损失评估系统（CEDLAS）"补充建立加固决策分析模块,进而通过陕西省灞桥区的综合应用示范,验证所建立的加固决策体系的合理性。研究可为政府制定在役建筑物的加固决策提供科学依据。     

An initial economic evaluation of water quality improvements in the Randers Fjord, Denmark

Eutrophication of estuarine and coastal waters has only been recognised as a potential problem since the early 1980s. This problem is being addressed by the European Union through the implementation of recent water quality legislation, which also calls for an economic analysis relating to its implementation. This paper examines the benefits and costs of reduced eutrophication of the Randers Fjord in Denmark, with a primary focus on assessing individual preferences for water quality improvements, using a contingent valuation survey approach. Initial findings of the survey are presented that offer support for funding an action plan to improve the ecological status of the Randers Fjord, as required by the Water Framework Directive. The paper highlights the considerable costs required to abate nutrient emissions into the Fjord, but identifies a need for greater cost evidence at the catchment level.     

Biological effects and subsequent economic effects and losses from marine pollution and degradations in marine environments: Implications from the literature

This paper serves as the missing piece in a more fuller understanding about economic losses from marine pollution, and demonstrates what losses have been estimated in the literature. Biological effects from marine pollution are linked with resulting economic effects and losses. The merging of these two areas is usually absent in studies of marine pollution losses. The literature has examined several effects due to marine pollution: damages due to harvest closures-restrictions, damages from consumption of unsafe seafood, damages due to decreased recreational activity, and damages related to waterfront real estate adjacent to contaminated water. Overall, marine pollution can and has resulted in sizable economic effects and losses. On the basis of the literature there is adequate justification for public policy actions to curb marine pollution, require inspection of seafood for toxic substances, and preserve marine water quality and sensitive marine environments.     

Optimal operation of reservoirs for downstream water quality control using linked simulation optimization

A methodology is developed for optimal operation of reservoirs to control water quality requirements at downstream locations. The physicochemical processes involved are incorporated using a numerical simulation model. This simulation model is then linked externally with an optimization algorithm. This linked simulation–optimization‐based methodology is used to obtain optimal reservoir operation policy. An elitist genetic algorithm is used as the optimization algorithm. This elitist‐genetic‐algorithm‐based linked simulation–optimization model is capable of evolving short‐term optimal operation strategies for controlling water quality downstream of a reservoir. The performance of the methodology developed is evaluated for an illustrative example problem. Different plausible scenarios of management are considered. The operation policies obtained are tested by simulating the resulting pollutant concentrations downstream of the reservoir. These performance evaluations consider various scenarios of inflow, permissible concentration limits, and a number of management periods. These evaluations establish the potential applicability of the developed methodology for optimal control of water quality downstream of a reservoir. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种生命线工程地震直接经济损失预测的改进算法——以水池和供水管网为例

生命线工程对区域内的经济和社会功能维系起到重要作用,一旦遭到地震破坏,将带来巨大的经济损失和诸多次生的负面影响。因此,生命线工程的地震损失评估工作是十分重要的。针对传统的生命线工程地震直接经济损失预测的计算方法时常会带来的缺乏区分度的问题,利用线性插值法,提出了一种改进公式。并以水池和供水管网为例,进行了计算和比对。证明了改进方法具有以下优点:能够克服传统方法缺乏区分度的问题,对某一地震破坏等级对应的震害指数的变化导致预测结果展现出足够的区分度;足够简便,不会带来过多的运算量上升;没有引入新的概念,能够较好地融入现有震害评估体系。     

Sustaining environmental flows in water-deficient rivers via inter-basin hydropower transfer

In water-deficient rivers, environmental flows (e-flows) are usually sustained via inter-basin water transfer projects from water-sufficient rivers, but these projects incur tremendous costs and may lead to many negative ecological effects, such as ecological invasion. This research proposed to transfer hydropower instead of water from water-sufficient rivers, because hydropower could substitute for water to promote economic development and reduce water withdrawal from water-deficient rivers (conserved water). In addition, based on the analysis of eco-hydrological processes, the flow regime alteration plays an important role in restoring riverine ecosystem. With the goal of minimum flow regime alternation, we set up two scenarios to distribute the annual conserved water, and determined the optimal amount of transferred hydropower and the optimal use of conserved water, which could effectively sustain the e-flows. Accordingly, this paper established a computable general equilibrium model to analyse the substitution of hydropower for water in a water-deficient river basin, and determined the water withdrawal volume that could be reduced. We adopted a range-of-variability approach to measure the degree of flow regime alteration, and optimized the flow regime management scheme. The Luanhe River Basin was adopted as a study case. The results showed that: the water-hydropower equivalent decreased as the transferred hydropower into the Luanhe River Basin increased; a transferred hydropower amount of 22.46 kWh/s, equivalent to 18.30 m³/s conserved water, was optimal for the river basin; the conserved water should be distributed to the Luanhe River in the proportions of 0.55:0.1:0.35 during the wet, normal and dry seasons, respectively, which is the optimal scheme to sustain the hydrological processes of the river.     

Optimized reservoir operation to balance human and riverine ecosystem needs: model development,and a case study for the Tanghe reservoir,Tang river basin,China

Reservoirs impose many negative impacts on riverine ecosystems. To balance human and ecosystem needs, we propose a reservoir operation method that combines reservoir operating rule curves with the regulated minimum water release policy to meet the environmental flow requirements of riverine ecosystems. Based on the relative positions of the reservoir and the water intakes, we consider three scenarios: water used for human needs (including industrial, domestic and agricultural) is directly withdrawn from (1) the reservoir; (2) both reservoirs and downstream river channels and (3) downstream river. The proposed method offers two advantages over traditional methods: First, it can be applied to finding the optimal reservoir operating rule curves with the consideration of environmental flow requirement, which is beneficial to the sustainable water uses. Second, it avoids a problem with traditional approaches, which prescribe the minimum environmental flow requirements as the regulated minimum environmental flow releases from reservoirs, implicitly giving lower priority to the riverine ecosystem. Our method instead determines the optimal regulated minimum releases of water to sustain environmental flows while more effectively balancing human and ecosystem needs. To demonstrate practical use of the model, we present a case study for operation of the Tanghe reservoir in China's Tang river basin for the three above‐mentioned scenarios. The results demonstrate that this approach will help the reservoir's managers satisfy both human and environmental requirements. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于抗震性态的设防标准研究

以基于性态的抗震设计为出发点,并以我国为例,针对目前国内外抗震设防标准的若干问题和不足,提出了基于性态抗震设计的三环节抗震设防方法．将现有的设防内容改为确定结构的抗震设计类别、确定设计烈度或设计地震动参数、确定建筑的重要性等级３个方面,并分别在每一方面进行具体深入的研究,从而形成了一套完整的基于性态的抗震设防标准确定的原则、方法和框架,可以直接用来编制规范供抗震设计使用．      

Water management for irrigation,crop yield and social attitudes: a socio-agricultural agent-based model to explore a collective action problem

ABSTRACT

When rainfall does not meet crop water requirements, supplemental irrigation is needed to maintain productivity. On-farm ponds can prevent excessive groundwater exploitation – to the benefit of the whole community – but they reduce the cultivated area and require investments by each farmer. Thus, choosing the source of water for irrigation (groundwater vs on-farm pond) is a problem of collective action. An agent-based model is developed to simulate a smallholder farming system; the farmers’ long-/short-view orientation determines the choice of the water source. We identify the most beneficial water source for economic gain and its stability, and how it can change across communities and under future climate scenarios. By using on-farm ponds, long-view-oriented farmers provide collective advantages but have individual advantages only under extreme climates; a tragedy of the commons is always possible. Changes in farmers’ attitudes (and hence sources of water) based on previous experiences can worsen the economic outcome.     

Optimal design of hydroelectric projects in Uttara Kannada,India

Abstract

The planning of water resources depends on the type and size of projects, the ecological factors involved, etc. Emphasis is placed on presenting an overview of water resources through meteorological, hydrological, ecological and economic data. Economic data include all costs and benefits, specifically those hitherto under estimated, environmental social costs and benefits. This study was carried out on the Bedthi and Aghnashini rivers in the Uttara Kannada district of the Western Ghats region, Karnataka State, India. It is estimated that 720 and 510 million kWh of electricity can be generated in Bedthi and Aghnashini River basins, respectively, if all the streams are harnessed. Focusing on land submergence impact, a model is proposed to minimize submergence and maximize net energy in a region with seasonal power generation, reservoir storage capacity (to meet the region's demand during all seasons) and installed generation capacity as the decision variables. Net energy analyses incorporating biomass energy lost in submergence show that maximization in net energy at a site is possible if the hydroelectric generation capacity is adjusted according to the seasonal variations in the river's water discharge. A Decision Support System (DSS) used for optimal design of hydroelectric projects in Uttara Kannada district is discussed.     

Models as multiple working hypotheses: hydrological simulation of tropical alpine wetlands

Tropical alpine grasslands, locally known as páramos, are the water towers of the northern Andes. They are an essential water source for drinking water, irrigation schemes and hydropower plants. But despite their high socio‐economic relevance, their hydrological processes are very poorly understood. Since environmental change, ranging from small scale land‐use changes to global climate change, is expected to have a strong impact on the hydrological behaviour, a better understanding and hydrological prediction are urgently needed. In this paper, we apply a set of nine hydrological models of different complexity to a small, well monitored upland catchment in the Ecuadorian Andes. The models represent different hypotheses on the hydrological functioning of the páramo ecosystem at catchment scale. Interpretation of the results of the model prediction and uncertainty analysis of the model parameters reveals important insights in the evapotranspiration, surface runoff generation and base flow in the páramo. However, problems with boundary conditions, particularly spatial variability of precipitation, pose serious constraints on the differentiation between model representations. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.