Climatic change on the Tibetan Plateau: Potential Evapotranspiration Trends from 1961–2000

Time series (1961–2000) of Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration estimates for 101 stations on the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding areas are analyzed in this paper. For the Tibetan Plateau as a whole potential evapotranspiration (PET) has decreased in all seasons. The average annual evapotranspiration rate decreased by 13.1 mm/decade or 2.0% of the annual total. Superimposed on this general decline are fluctuations ranging from app. 600 to 700 mm with above average rates in the 1970s and 1980s. On a regional basis, spatial trend distributions remain stable throughout the year with similar seasonal variations. Decreasing PET rates are more pronounced in winter and spring (80% of all stations) as compared to summer and autumn (58% of all stations). Maximum negative (positive) annual rates were recorded at two stations in the southern Qaidam Basin with –79.5 mm/decade (84.8 mm/decade) even though in general negative rates tend to be noticeably higher than positive rates.Changes in wind speed and to a lesser degree relative humidity were found to be the most important meteorological variables affecting PET trends on the Tibetan Plateau while changes in sunshine duration played an insignificant role. Stable daytime temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau have limited the importance of temperature trends for changes of PET rates. Negative evapotranspiration trends are therefore thought to be linked to a general decrease in intensity of the regional monsoon circulation rather than to reductions in sunshine duration. Reduced PET rates appear to be in contrast to a predicted increased hydrological cycle under global warming scenarios.     

气候因素变化对许昌烟区的影响及适应性分析

分析了许昌烟区1971—2005年4个年代气候因素变化特点,采用隶属度函数模型和指数和法,估算了许昌各县（市）的气候适生性指数（CFI）,并对其变化原因进行了分析。结果表明：不同年代各县（市）的CFI均在0．80以上,表明各县（市）均属烤烟生产气候适宜区。从4个年代CFI的均值来看,许昌县〉长葛〉襄城〉禹州〉鄢陵;从4个年代CFI变异程度来看,禹州〉长葛〉襄城〉鄢陵〉许昌县。各县（市）不同年代的CFI均呈“低-高-高-低”变化趋势;20世纪80年代以来,许昌县、襄城、长葛、禹州的CFI值及变化趋势基本一致,均明显高于鄢陵。80年代至21世纪初鄢陵的气候适生性指数明显低于其他县（市）,与伸根期温度相对较低,旺长期和成熟期多雨、高湿有关。     

近57年巴彦淖尔市平均最高最低气温及日较差变化

利用1954年-2010年内蒙古巴彦淖尔市9个台站的月平均最高、最低气温观测资料,对巴彦淖尔市年、季平均最高、最低气温变化趋势的空间分布状况和时间变化特征进行了分析。结果表明,近57年来,巴彦淖尔市年平均最高气温的变化特征呈现北部增暖幅度明显大于南部,且近十年呈弱降温趋势;年平均最低气温与全国各地基本一致,呈明显的变暖趋势;无论是年还是季,平均最低气温的增暖幅度明显大于平均最高气温的增幅;年平均日较差多呈下降趋势,并在北部地区尤为明显,各季平均日较差亦均呈下降趋势,并以冬季的下降幅度为最大;年平均最高气温和最低气温的变化在年代际变化上基本呈现较为一致的变化,即57年来主要的变暖均是从20世纪80年代中期开始,均在90年代后期达到了近57年来的历史新高,最高气温近十年来又略有回落。     

Low-cloud and sunshine duration in the low-latitude belt of South China for the period 1961�C2005

In order to explore the trends in sunshine duration in the low-latitude belt of South China, long-term sunshine duration, total clouds, low clouds, and visibility were investigated for the period 1961?C2005. The results show significant declines in sunshine duration, occurring on the average of ?3.2% and ?2.8% per decade under all-sky and clear-sky conditions, respectively. It is noted that increased air aerosol loading due to rapid socio-economic development is the drive behind the sharp declines in sunshine duration in the study area. Though cloud is the primary regulator of sunshine duration under all-sky conditions, sunshine is strongly correlated with visibility under clear-sky conditions. Relational analysis between sunshine and cloud amount suggests 0.4% change in clouds per decade, which is well in agreement with the trend of decline in sunshine duration under all-sky conditions in the study area. Increasing low-cloud opacity could be the primary factor driving the decline in sunshine duration in the low-latitude belt of South China.     

Projections of SO2, NOx and carbonaceous aerosols emissions in Asia

Estimates of Asian emissions of air pollutants and carbonaceous aerosols and their mid-term projections have been changing significantly in the last years. The remote sensing community has shown that increase in NO _x in Central East Asia is much stronger than any of the emission inventories or projections indicated so far. A number of studies reviewing older estimates appeared. Here, we review the key contributions and compare them to the most recent results of the GAINS model application for Asia and to the SRES projections used in the IPPC work. The recent projections indicate that the growth of emissions of SO₂ in Asia should slow down significantly towards 2010 or even stabilize at the current level. For NO _x , however, further growth is projected although it will be most likely slower that in the last decade, owing to introduction of measures in transport. Emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon and organic carbon) are expected to decline after 2010, largely due to reduced use of biofuels in residential sector and efficiency improvements. The estimates of these emissions are burdened with significantly larger uncertainties than SO₂ and NO _x ; even for the year 2000 the differences in estimates between studies are up to a factor of 2.     

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Greece

Recent studies have showed that there is a significant decrease in rainfall over Greece during the last half of the pervious century, following an overall decrease of the precipitation at the eastern Mediterranean. However, during the last decade an increase in rainfall was observed in most regions of the country, contrary to the general circulation climate models forecasts. An updated high-resolution dataset of monthly sums and annual daily maxima records derived from 136 stations during the period 1940–2012 allowed us to present some new evidence for the observed change and its statistical significance. The statistical framework used to determine the significance of the slopes in annual rain was not limited to the time independency assumption (Mann-Kendall test), but we also investigated the effect of short- and long-term persistence through Monte Carlo simulation. Our findings show that (a) change occurs in different scales; most regions show a decline since 1950, an increase since 1980 and remain stable during the last 15 years; (b) the significance of the observed decline is highly dependent to the statistical assumptions used; there are indications that the Mann-Kendall test may be the least suitable method; and (c) change in time is strongly linked with the change in space; for scales below 40 years, relatively close regions may develop even opposite trends, while in larger scales change is more uniform.     

EFFECTS OF AEROSOLS ON AUTUMN PRECIPITATION OVER MID-EASTERN CHINA

Long-term observational data indicated a decreasing trend for the amount of autumn precipitation (i.e. 54.3 mm per decade) over Mid-Eastern China, especially after the 1980s (~ 5.6% per decade). To examine the cause of the decreasing trend, the mechanisms associated with the change of autumn precipitation were investigated from the perspective of water vapor transportation, atmospheric stability and cloud microphysics. Results show that the decrease of convective available potential energy (i.e. 12.81 J kg-1/ decade) and change of cloud microphysics, which were closely related to the increase of aerosol loading during the past twenty years, were the two primary factors responsible for the decrease of autumn precipitation. Our results showed that increased aerosol could enhance the atmospheric stability thus weaken the convection. Meanwhile, more aerosols also led to a significant decline of raindrop concentration and to a delay of raindrop formation because of smaller size of cloud droplets. Thus, increased aerosols produced by air pollution could be one of the major reasons for the decrease of autumn precipitation. Furthermore, we found that the aerosol effects on precipitation in autumn was more significant than in other seasons, partly due to relatively more stable synoptic systems in autumn. The impact of large-scale circulation dominant in autumn and the dynamic influence on precipitation was more important than the thermodynamic activity.     

Changes in extreme wind speeds in NW Europe simulated by generalized linear models

Summary We investigate the capability of generalized linear models (GLMs) to simulate sequences of daily maximum wind speed (DMWS), at a selection of locations in NW Europe. Models involving both the gamma and Weibull distributions have been fitted to the NCEP reanalysis data for the period 1958–1998. In simulations, these models successfully reproduce the observed increasing trends up to 0.3 m/s per decade in coastal or oceanic locations for the wintertime and the decreasing trends down to –0.2 m/s per decade in inland Europe for the summertime. Annually extreme winds exhibit an increasing tendency (with median estimates up to 0.6 m/s per decade) at the studied locations. The gamma model slightly overestimates the upper percentiles of the wind speed distribution, but reproduces trends better than the Weibull model. In both the NCEP data and GLM simulations, local extreme DMWS events (defined in terms of threshold exceedances) have increased dramatically in frequency during winter; decreasing trends are more common in summer. The NCEP data indicate similar trends in the frequencies of large-scale windy events (defined via simultaneous exceedances at 2 or more locations). Overall, these events have increased in number; at the scale of the North Sea basin, their number may have changed from 3–5 days per year during the earlier decades, to 5–7 days per year during later decades based on observational estimates. An increase in the frequency of large-scale extreme winter storms is implied. The GLMs underestimate these large-scale event frequencies, and provide imprecise estimates of the corresponding secular trends. These problems could be rectified by using a better representation of spatial dependence. The present results suggest that GLMs offer a useful tool to study local climate extremes in the context of changing climate distributions; they also provide some pointers towards improving the representation of extremes at a regional scale.     

Vertical ozone distribution characteristics deduced from ∼ 44,000 re-evaluated Umkehr profiles (1957–2000)

Summary Umkehr observations taken during the 1957–2000 period at 15 stations located between 19 and 52° N have been reanalyzed using a significantly improved algorithm-99, developed by DeLuisi and Petropavlovskikh et al. (2000a,b). The alg-99 utilizes new latitudinal and seasonally dependent first guess ozone and temperature profiles, new vector radiative transfer code, complete aerosol corrections, gravimetric corrections, and others. Before reprocessing, all total ozone values as well as the N-values (radiance) readings were thoroughly re-evaluated. For the first time, shifts in the N-values were detected and provisionally corrected. The re-evaluated Umkehr data set was validated against satellite and ground based measurements. The retrievals with alg-99 show much closer agreement with the lidar and SAGE than with the alg-92. Although the latitudinal coverage is limited, this Umkehr data set contains ∼ 44,000 profiles and represent the longest (∼ 40 years) coherent information on the ozone behavior in the stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere. The 14-months periods following the El-Chichon and the Mt. Pinatubo eruptions were excluded from the analysis. Then the basic climatological characteristics of the vertical ozone distribution in the 44–52° N and more southern locations are described. Some of these characteristics are not well known or impossible to be determined from satellites or single stations. The absolute and relative variability reach their maximum during winter–spring at altitudes below 24 km; the lower stratospheric layers in the middle latitudes contain ∼ 62% of the total ozone and contribute ∼ 57% to its total variability. The layer-5 (between ∼ 24 and 29 km) although containing 20% of the total ozone shows the least fluctuations, no trend and contributes only ∼ 11% to the total ozone variability. Meridional cross-sections from 19 to 52° N of the vertical ozone distribution and its variability illustrate the changes, and show poleward-decreasing altitude of the ozone maximum. The deduced trends above 33 km confirm a strong ozone decline since the mid-1970s of over 5% per decade without significant seasonal differences. In the mid-latitude stations, the decline in the 15–24 km layer is nearly twice as strong in the winter-spring season but much smaller in the summer and fall. The effect of including 1998 and 1999 years with relatively high total ozone data reduces the overall-declining trend. The trends estimated from alg-99 retrievals are statistically not significantly different from those in WMO 1998a; however, they are stronger by about 1% per decade in the lower stratosphere and thus closer to the estimates by sondes. Comparisons of the integrated ozone loss from the Umkehr measurements with the total ozone changes for the same periods at stations with good records show complete concurrence. The altitude and latitude appearances of the long-term geophysical signals like solar (1–2%) and QBO (2–7%) are investigated. Received April 12, 2001 Revised September 19, 2001     

西藏近40年气温变化的气候特征分析

应用西藏1952~1995年温度序列资料, 对其基本气候特征、年代变化、气候突变、振荡周期、异常冷暖、变化趋势等进行了分析.结果表明:年与各季气温大都具有3个暖期和2个冷期, 60年代是最冷的10年, 以秋季降温最明显, 80年代中后期至90年代气温偏高. 22年、11年、3~4年是年与各季气温较为显著的周期.气候突变出现在60年代初和80年代初. 60年代、70年代多异常偏冷年, 80年代多异常偏暖年, 多发生在夏季和冬季, 90年代, 大多数年份发生气温异常. 40年来, 西藏年平均气温以0.065 ℃/10a的倾向率上升, 近10年春秋季增温率最大.     

Decline of forest area in Sabah,Malaysia: Relationship to state policies,land code and land capability

Forest decline in Sabah has resulted from state policies operating within the federal context. Approximately two-thirds of Sabah's natural forest remains but estimates vary with the data source. Logging and shifting cultivation have degraded forest quality but commercial estate agriculture, especially oil palm, is now the major cause of forest loss, aided by Sabah's land tenure code and the ethnic equality and modernisation agendas of national and state agriculture policy. The pattern of forest decline is explained by partitioning of the land resource between gazetted Forest Reserves and land alienated to agriculture, guided by the 1976 land capability classification.     

Impact of the Montreal protocol and its amendments on the rate of change of global radiative forcing

Increases in chlorinated and brominated halocarbons are believed to be responsible for the depletion of stratospheric ozone observed over much of the globe in the past decade or so. Ozone depletion is in turn believed to lead to a negative radiative forcing, tending to cool the stratosphere and the surface. We show that the increasing atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting halocarbons and onset of related ozone depletion likely led to a negative forcing of the climate system in the 1980s that slowed significantly the rate of change of total anthropogenic radiative forcing due to the combined effect of all greenhouse gases over that decade. Within the next decade, emissions of these halocarbons are expected to rapidly decrease, with corresponding impacts on ozone and radiative forcing. As the emissions of ozone-depleting gases are reduced and eventually phased out, the rate of ozone depletion is expected to decrease and eventually reverse. All other things being equal, we show that the change from deepening ozone depletion in the 1980s to ozone increases in the future should lead to a pronounced increase in the decadal rate of change of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of the next few decades, perhaps to levels unprecedented in this century.     

Variability and decline in the number of severe tropical cyclones making land-fall over eastern Australia since the late nineteenth century

Recent studies have raised concerns that tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly severe TCs, have become more frequent in many places in response to global warming. Other studies discuss errors in TC data that can cause large inaccuracies in some of the observed trends. Additional studies conclude that TCs are likely to become more intense in the future in response to global warming, while regional modelling studies for the south-west Pacific near north-eastern Australia project an intensification of TCs and either a decrease or no change in TC numbers. Here we describe and use a new data base of severe land-falling TCs for eastern Australia derived from numerous historical sources, that has taken over a decade to develop. It provides one of the world??s longest reliable records of tropical cyclone activity, and allows us to document changes over much longer periods than has been done previously for the Southern Hemisphere. Land-fall numbers are shown to vary a great deal on interannual, decadal and longer time-scales. The interannual variability is consistent with previous studies using much shorter data sets: land-fall numbers are well-simulated as a Poisson process and are modulated by the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Land-falls occurred almost twice as often in La Ni?a years as they did in El Ni?o years, and multiple land-falls only occurred during La Ni?a years. The statistical link between land-falls and pre-season values of the Southern Oscillation Index provides a modest predictive capability. Decadal variability in ENSO drives some of the decadal variability in land-fall numbers. The sign and magnitude of trends calculated over 30?years periods vary substantially, highlighting that caution needs to be taken in making inferences about trends based on e.g. satellite era data only. The linear trend in the number of severe TCs making land-fall over eastern Australia declined from about 0.45 TCs/year in the early 1870s to about 0.17 TCs/year in recent times??a 62% decline. This decline can be partially explained by a weakening of the Walker Circulation, and a natural shift towards a more El Ni?o-dominated era. The extent to which global warming might be also be partially responsible for the decline in land-falls??if it is at all??is unknown.     

Improved estimation of average warming trend of China from 1951–2010 based on satellite observed land-use data

This paper provides new evidence of regional warming trends from local Chinese observations covering the period 1951–2010. We used satellite-derived land data and weighted urban and rural temperature records (a weighted method) and estimate the regional warming trend, which involves natural climate change and human impact. The annual warming rate over the whole of China is 0.21?±?0.02 °C/decade. The seasonal warming is 0.30?±?0.05 °C/decade (Winter), 0.24 °C?±?0.03 °C/decade (Spring); 0.16?±?0.02 °C/decade (Summer) and 0.21?±?0.03 °C/decade (Autumn). The mean warming trend is lower than previous estimates (e.g. NMIC, CRU-China) using un-weighted methods (arithmetic average of all records). The warming difference between the weighted and un-weighted accounts for 27 % (12 %) of the NMIC (CRU-China) un-weighted estimate on the total warming. This indicates that previous estimations overestimated a regional warming trend. The differences can be partly attributed to the weighting of the urban effect which is taken into consideration in this study, resulting in a much slower temperature increase. Spatially, the northern part of China shows a larger difference than the south especially for winter and spring. We argue that it is of importance to take into consideration the influence of urban land-use change to improve the physical understanding of surface warming in China over past decades.     

Fluctuations in dense gas concentrations measured in a wind-tunnel

Concentration time series from FID (flame ionisation detector) sensors and catharometers downstream of an instantaneous release of dense gas contaminants are analysed by statistical methods. For each experiment there are either 50 or 100 replications, thus allowing estimates of statistical properties to be made even though the dispersion is nonstationary. The time history of the first four central moments is estimated, and they are plotted against each other, in the manner suggested by Mole and Clarke (1995). The collapse of the skewness-kurtosis plot onto a universal quadratic curve, similar to that found by Mole and Clarke for continuous releases, is observed. In this paper, we show how this observation is consistent with the form of the pdf postulated by Chatwin and Sullivan (1989).     

气候因素变化对许昌烟区的影响及适应性分析

分析了许昌烟区1971—2005年4个年代气候因素变化特点,采用隶属度函数模型和指数和法,估算了许昌各县（市）的气候适生性指数（CFI）,并对其变化原因进行了分析。结果表明：不同年代各县（市）的CFI均在0．80以上,表明各县（市）均属烤烟生产气候适宜区。从4个年代CFI的均值来看,许昌县〉长葛〉襄城〉禹州〉鄢陵;从4个年代CFI变异程度来看,禹州〉长葛〉襄城〉鄢陵〉许昌县。各县（市）不同年代的CFI均呈“低-高-高-低”变化趋势;20世纪80年代以来,许昌县、襄城、长葛、禹州的CFI值及变化趋势基本一致,均明显高于鄢陵。80年代至21世纪初鄢陵的气候适生性指数明显低于其他县（市）,与伸根期温度相对较低,旺长期和成熟期多雨、高湿有关。     

1961-2010年江苏省农业气候资源演变特征

利用1961-2010年江苏省59个气象站观测资料,采用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检测等方法,分析江苏省农业气候资源的时空演变特征。结果表明：以热量、水分和光照为主的农业气候资源总量已发生明显变化,表现在平均气温以0.29 ℃/10 a显著升高;≥0 ℃和≥10 ℃的年积温分别以101.1 ℃/10 a和83.4 ℃/10 a的趋势明显增加;无霜期变化略有延长;降水量以9.1 mm/10 a的趋势略有增加;年日照时数以-65.4 h/10 a明显减少。江苏农业气候资源的突变期主要始于20世纪90年代初期左右。农业气候资源的变化将对江苏省农业产生深远影响,制定相应的计划是保证未来生态性农业发展的必然。     

Climatic factors controlling plant sensitivity to warming

Plant sensitivity to warming can be expressed as β or the number of days of advance in leafing or flowering events per 1 °C of Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) change. Many local studies demonstrate that β estimates for spring flowering species are usually larger than estimates for plants flowering in summer or fall. Until now, however, neither observational nor experimental estimates of this parameter were considered to be climate or geographically dependent. Here we question this paradigm through reanalysis of observational β estimates and mathematical modeling of the seasonal warming signal. Statistical analysis of a large number of bulk (averaged over species) estimates of β derived from the Pan European Phenology Data network (PEP725) revealed a positive spatial correlation with MAT, as well as a negative correlation with the Seasonal Temperature Range (STR). These spatial correlations of bulk β values as well as interseasonal variability in β were explained using a simple deterministic model of the Thermal Growing Season (TGS). More specifically, we found that the geographic distribution of bulk plant sensitivity to warming as well as the seasonal decline of β were controlled by the seasonal patterns in the warming signal and by average soil thermal properties. Thus, until recently, plants managed to keep pace with climate warming by shifting their leafing and flowering events by the same number of days as the length of the period of weather suitable for their growth. Our model predicts, however, an even greater increase in the TGS for subsequent increases in MAT. Depending on how they interact with other factors such as changes in precipitation and increased temperature variability, these longer thermal growing seasons may not be beneficial for plant growth.     

Increased Carbon Sink in Temperate and Boreal Forests

An intense search is under way to identify the `missing sink' in the world carbon budget of perhaps 2 Pg year^–1 (petagrams, or billiontonnes) of carbon, but its location and mechanism have proved elusive. Here we use a new forest inventory data set to estimate the carbon sink and the carbon pool of woody biomass in 55 countries that account for nearly all temperate or boreal forests and approximately half the world's total forest area. In each country there was a net accumulation of biomass; together, the carbon sink of woody biomass was 0.88 Pg year^–1 during the 1990swith estimated uncertainty from 0.71 to 1.1 Pg year^–1. Thisestimate, already about half of the missing sink, would probably be even larger if carbon accumulation in soil and detritus were also accounted for, but we are unable to quantify that additional sink. The sink is twice that estimated for the woody biomass of these forests a decade ago due to higher estimates for tree growth throughout the region and decreased timber harvests in Russia. In contrast, the new data indicate a carbon pool that is smaller than earlier estimates because of improved data for Russia and Australia.     

The past climate and sea-ice record from Iceland,Part 1: Data to A.D. 1780

A new reconstruction of the climate and sea-ice record for Iceland from medieval times to A.D. 1780 is presented, based on all available documentary sources. The importance of careful historical analysis to separate reliable from unreliable material is stressed, and these reconstructions are the first to have been produced using only reliable data. The major previous works on the subject (those of Thoroddsen, Koch, and Bergþórsson), which all include unreliable material, are discussed. Prior to A.D. 1600 the data are not considered to be full enough to permit a quantitative interpretation. For the period A.D. 1601 to 1780 decadal temperature and sea-ice indices are given.Although there is very little evidence for the first few centuries of settlement in Iceland (from c. 870 to c. 1170) the data suggest a fairly mild climatic period. Cold periods occurred around 1200, and at the end of the thirteenth century. The fourteenth century was very variable with a cold period in the 1350s to c. 1380. Between 1430 and c. 1560 there are very few contemporary sources and it is difficult to draw any conclusions on the climate during this time. The latter part of the sixteenth century was undoubtedly cold. From 1601 there are sufficient data to permit a decade by decade analysis. This shows a mild period between 1640 and 1670, and severe decades in the 1630s, 1690s, 1740s, and 1750s. Year to year and decade to decade variability is appreciable. The correlation between temperature and sea ice is not perfect but is still quite strong (similar to today). Because data have been gathered from different regions of Iceland it has been possible to demonstrate the spatial variability of Iceland's climate during the period 1601 to 1780. For example, during 1660 to 1700 there was a cooling in the north and west but warming in the south. The 1690s, the coldest decade of the Little Ice Age in Europe, was extremely cold in the west of Iceland, but less severe elsewhere.

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