Simulation of the Effect of Water-vapor Increase on Temperature in the Stratosphere

To analyze the mechanism by which water vapor increase leads to cooling in the stratosphere, the effects of water-vapor increases on temperature in the stratosphere were simulated using the two-dimensional, interactive chemical dynamical radiative model (SOCRATES) of NCAR. The results indicate that increases in stratospheric water vapor lead to stratospheric cooling, with the extent of cooling increasing with height, and that cooling in the middle stratosphere is stronger in Arctic regions. Analysis of the radiation process showed that infrared radiative cooling by water vapor is a pivotal factor in middle-lower stratospheric cooling. However, in the upper stratosphere (above 45 km), infrared radiation is not a factor in cooling; there, cooling is caused by the decreased solar radiative heating rate resulting from ozone decrease due to increased stratospheric water vapor. Dynamical cooling is important in the middle-upper stratosphere, and dynamical feedback to temperature change is more distinct in the Northern Hemisphere middle-high latitudes than in other regions and signiffcantly affects temperature and ozone in winter over Arctic regions. Increasing stratospheric water vapor will strengthen ozone depletion through the chemical process. However, ozone will increase in the middle stratosphere. The change in ozone due to increasing water vapor has an important effect on the stratospheric temperature change.     

The effect of ozone photochemistry on atmospheric and surface temperature changes due to increased CO2, N2O,CH4 and volcanic aerosols in the atmosphere

Abstract

A coupled 1‐D radiative‐convective and photochemical diffusion model is used to study the influence of ozone photochemistry on changes in the vertical temperature structure and surface climate resulting from the doubling of atmospheric CO₂, N₂O, CH₄ and increased stratospheric aerosols owing to the El Chichón volcanic eruption. It is found when CO₂ alone is doubled, that the total ozone column increases by nearly 6% and the resulting increase in the solar heating contributes a smaller temperature decrease in the stratosphere (up to 4 K near the stratopause level). When the concentration of CO₂, N₂O and CH₄ are simultaneously doubled, the total ozone column amount increases by only 2.5% resulting in a reduced temperature recovery in the stratosphere. Additional results concerning the effect of the interaction of ozone photochemistry with the stratospheric aerosol cloud produced by the El Chichón eruption show that it leads to a reduction in stratospheric ozone, which in turn has the effect of increasing the cooling at the surface and above the cloud centre while causing a slight warming below in the lower stratosphere.     

The Radiative-Dynamical Effects of High Cloud on Global Ozone Distribution

Previous studies (e.g., Dessler et al., 1996; Haigh, 1984) have discussed the effect of cloud on modelled ozone distribution through changes in the radiative heating in the lower stratosphere. Here the relationship is investigated using an interactive chemical-radiative- transport 2D model. It is shown that, while similar cooling in the lower stratosphere due to high cloud is found, the effect on ozone is not as previously expected. The inclusion of high cloud is found to bring about a warming of the troposphere, resulting in a net heating in the lower stratosphere. This strengthens the circulation, leading to a decrease in total tropical ozone. Importantly, the effect of the cloud-induced temperature changes on heating rates does not combine linearly with the direct radiative effect of cloud changes. The possibility of a link between the high cloud increases and total ozone decreases observed in some regions during strong El Niño episodes is investigated. The possible impact on ozone of a global trend in high cloud cover is also discussed.     

Effect of atmospheric overlapping bands and their treatment on the calculation of thermal radiation

The effect of the overlapping band of atmospheric gases and its treatment on the calculation of flux and cooling rate due to the long wave radiation is investigated in detail by a new transmission model for overlapping bands, taking the 15 μm band of CO2 as an example. It is found that the presence of band overlapping has a quite significant influence on radiative fluxes and cooling rates in the upper stratosphere and the troposphere, in particular, at the earth's surface. However, in the middle-lower stratosphere, the overlapping effect appears to be insignificant. It is also shown that the usual wide-band transmission model treating the overlapping effect overestimates the net longwave fluxes in the lower stratosphere and, in particular, in the troposphere including the surface. But, in the middle-upper stratosphere, the contrary is the case.     

Chemistry–Climate Interactions of Stratospheric and Mesospheric Ozone in EMAC Long-Term Simulations with Different Boundary Conditions for CO2, CH4, N2O,and ODS

Abstract

To evaluate future climate change in the middle atmosphere and the chemistry–climate interaction of stratospheric ozone, we performed a long-term simulation from 1960 to 2050 with boundary conditions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B greenhouse gas scenario and the World Meteorological Organization Ab halogen scenario using the chemistry–climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC). In addition to this standard simulation we performed five sensitivity simulations from 2000 to 2050 using the rerun files of the simulation mentioned above. For these sensitivity simulations we used the same model setup as in the standard simulation but changed the boundary conditions for carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), and ozone-depleting substances (ODS). In the first sensitivity simulation we fixed the mixing ratios of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O in the boundary conditions to the amounts for 2000. In each of the four other sensitivity simulations we fixed the boundary conditions of only one of CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, or ODS to the year 2000.

In our model simulations the future evolution of greenhouse gases leads to significant cooling in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Increasing CO₂ mixing ratios make the largest contributions to this radiative cooling, followed by increasing stratospheric CH₄, which also forms additional H₂O in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. Increasing N₂O mixing ratios makes the smallest contributions to the cooling. The simulated ozone recovery leads to warming of the middle atmosphere.

In the EMAC model the future development of ozone is influenced by several factors. 1) Cooler temperatures lead to an increase in ozone in the upper stratosphere. The strongest contribution to this ozone production is cooling due to increasing CO₂ mixing ratios, followed by increasing CH₄. 2) Decreasing ODS mixing ratios lead to ozone recovery, but the contribution to the total ozone increase in the upper stratosphere is only slightly higher than the contribution of the cooling by greenhouse gases. In the polar lower stratosphere a decrease in ODS is mainly responsible for ozone recovery. 3) Higher NO_x and HO_x mixing ratios due to increased N₂O and CH₄ lead to intensified ozone destruction, primarily in the middle and upper stratosphere, from additional NO_x; in the mesosphere the intensified ozone destruction is caused by additional HO_x. In comparison to the increase in ozone due to decreasing ODS, ozone destruction caused by increased NO_x is of similar importance in some regions, especially in the middle stratosphere. 4) In the stratosphere the enhancement of the Brewer-Dobson circulation leads to a change in ozone transport. In the polar stratosphere increased downwelling leads to additional ozone in the future, especially at high northern latitudes. The dynamical impact on ozone development is higher at some altitudes in the polar stratosphere than the ozone increase due to cooler temperatures. In the tropical lower stratosphere increased residual vertical upward transport leads to a decrease in ozone.     

Effects of sea surface temperature, radiation, cloud microphysics, and diurnal variations on vertical structures of tropical tropospheric temperature: a two-dimensional equilibrium cloud-resolving modeling study

The effects of sea surface temperature (SST), radiation, cloud microphysics, and diurnal variations on the vertical structure of tropical tropospheric temperature are investigated by analyzing 10 two-dimensional equilibrium cloud-resolving model simulation data. The increase of SST, exclusion of diurnal variation of SST, and inclusion of diurnal variation of solar zenith angle, radiative effects of ice clouds, and ice microphysics could lead to tropical tropospheric warming and increase of tropopause height. The increase of SST and the suppression of its diurnal variation enhance the warming in the lower and upper troposphere, respectively, through increasing latent heat and decreasing IR cooling. The inclusion of diurnal variation of solar zenith angle increases the tropospheric warming through increasing solar heating. The inclusion of cloud radiative effects increases tropospheric warming through suppressing IR cooling in the mid and lower troposphere and enhancing solar heating in the upper troposphere. The inclusion of ice microphysics barely increases warming in the mid and lower troposphere because the warming from ice radiative effects is nearly offset by the cooling from ice microphysical effects, whereas it causes the large warming enhancement in the upper troposphere due to the dominance of ice radiative effects. The tropopause height is increased mainly through the large enhancement of IR cooling.     

平流层臭氧变化对对流层气候影响的研究进展

平流层对对流层的作用是准确评估、预测对流层气候变化的一个重要方面。其中平流层成分尤其是臭氧的变化,可以改变平流层乃至对流层的辐射平衡,从而影响平流层、对流层的热动力过程。本文从辐射、动力2个角度介绍了平流层臭氧影响对流层气候变化的若干研究进展。平流层臭氧可以通过长短波辐射的方式对对流层大气造成辐射强迫,利用大气化学气候模式可以定量计算平流层臭氧变化引起的辐射强迫,但是辐射强迫的估算受模式中辐射传输模块本身缺陷的影响存在不确定性。动力方面,平流层臭氧变化产生的辐射效应可以改变温度的垂直和经向梯度,造成波折射指数的变化,进而影响平流层甚至对流层内波的折射与反射,通过上对流层下平流层区域内的波—流相互作用,对对流层气候产生影响。另外,南极臭氧损耗可通过大气环状模影响冬春季中高纬度对流层的天气气候,但是其影响的强度大小以及物理机制仍需进一步的确认。值得注意的是,北极平流层臭氧的变化与北半球中高纬度气候变化之间的关系相比南半球要更加复杂,需要更为深入的研究。     

Response of the Météo-France climate model to changes in CO2 and sea surface temperature

The climate response to an increase in carbon dioxide and sea surface temperatures is examined using the Météo-France climate model. This model has a high vertical resolution in the stratosphere and predicts the evolution of the ozone mixing ratio. This quantity is fully interactive with radiation and photochemical production and loss rates are accounted for. Results from a 5-year control run indicate a reasonable agreement with observed climatologies. A 5-year simulation is performed with a doubled CO₂ concentration using, as lower boundary conditions, mean surface temperatures anomalies and sea ice limits predicted for the years 56–65 of a 100-year transient simulation performed at Hamburg with a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model. The perturbed simulation produces a global mean surface air warming of 1.4 K and an increase in global mean precipitation rate of 4%. Outside the high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, the model simulates a strong cooling in the stratosphere reaching 10 K near the stratopause. Temperature increases are noticed in the lower polar stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere caused by an intensification in the frequency of sudden warmings in the perturbed simulation. The low and mid-latitude stratospheric cooling leads to an ozone column enhancement of about 5%. Other features present in similar studies are exhibited in the troposphere such as the stronger surface warming over polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere, the summer time soil moisture drying in mid-latitudes and the increase in high convective cloudiness in tropical regions.This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Variability, held in Hamburg 7–11 September 1992 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil Correspondence to: JF Mahfouf     

冰晶粒子不同形状假定对辐射收支和气候的影响

将包含多形状冰晶粒子的冰云辐射参数化方案应用于全球气候模式中,详细讨论了冰云粒子从球形假定到多形状假定的变化对辐射场和气候场的影响。结果显示,冰晶粒子形状假定的引入对冰云光学厚度、辐射通量和加热率以及温度场均有明显的影响。采用新的冰云方案使得全球平均云光学厚度值降低0.28（23%）;热带地区降低最为明显,其差异绝对值可达1.02,而在中高纬度陆地地区,两者的冰云光学厚度差别较小。冰晶粒子形状假定改变将导致全球平均的大气顶出射长波辐射通量增加5.52 W/m2（2.3%）。与观测资料的比较表明,多形状冰晶粒子假定明显减小了球形粒子假定对长波出射辐射的低估。对大气加热率廓线的模拟显示,多形状冰晶粒子假定会减弱短波辐射对大气的加热作用,同时增强长波辐射对大气的冷却作用;在热带对流层中高层,这两种影响尤为显著。冰晶粒子形状假定的改变对温度场有明显的影响,热带地区的对流层高层大气温度降低幅度可超过1.5 K。研究表明,冰晶粒子形状假定的改变对模拟的辐射和温度场均有重要的影响。      

Impact of increasing stratospheric water vapor on ozone depletion and temperature change

Using a detailed, fully coupled chemistry climate model (CCM), the effect of increasing stratospheric H_{2O on ozone and temperature is investigated. Different CCM time-slice runs have been performed to investigate the chemical and radiative impacts of an assumed 2 ppmv increase in H2O. The chemical effects of this H2O increase lead to an overall decrease of the total column ozone (TCO) by ～1% in the tropics and by a maximum of 12% at southern high latitudes. At northern high latitudes, the TCO is increased by only up to 5% due to stronger transport in the Arctic. A 2-ppmv H2O increase in the model's radiation scheme causes a cooling of the tropical stratosphere of no more than 2 K, but a cooling of more than 4 K at high latitudes. Consequently, the TCO is increased by about 2%--6%. Increasing stratospheric H2O, therefore, cools the stratosphere both directly and indirectly, except in the polar regions where the temperature responds differently due to feedbacks between ozone and H2O changes. The combined chemical and radiative effects of increasing H2O may give rise to more cooling in the tropics and middle latitudes but less cooling in the polar stratosphere. The combined effects of H2O increases on ozone tend to offset each other, except in the Arctic stratosphere where both the radiative and chemical impacts give rise to increased ozone. The chemical and radiative effects of increasing H2O cause dynamical responses in the stratosphere with an evident hemispheric asymmetry. In terms of ozone recovery, increasing the stratospheric H2O is likely to accelerate the recovery in the northern high latitudes and delay it in the southern high latitudes. The modeled ozone recovery is more significant between 2000--2050 than between 2050--2100, driven mainly by the larger relative change in chlorine in the earlier period.}     

THE ROLE PLAYED BY THE STRATOSPHERE IN GREENHOUSE EFFECT

Two one-dimensional radiative-convective models with the same scheme and the different ranges that one is fromsurface to stratopause and the other is from surface to tropopause,have been developed to study the role played by thestratosphere in greenhouse effect.It is shown that the addition of stratospheric response may lead to an increase of 7—50percent in radiative forcing at the tropopause,and an increase of 20—60 percent in surface temperature when the con-centration of the same gas in the two models increases at the same time;and when the same change in radiative forcing atthe tropopause due to the same agent in the two models occurs,the addition of stratospheric response may lead to an in-crease of 5—20 percent in surface temperature;and allowing for the stratospheric adjustment means that the tempera-ture responses to the same flux change due to different causes are in far disagreement.     

Stratospheric response to chemical perturbations

The paper presents a coupled chemical-radiative one-dimensional model which is used to assess the steady-state and time-dependent composition and temperature changes in relation to the release in the atmosphere of chemicals such as CO₂, N₂O, CH₄, NO _x and chlorofluorocarbons.The model indicates that a doubling in CO₂ leads to an increase in temperature of 12.7 K near the stratopause and to an increase in total ozone of 3.3% with a local enhancement of 17% at 40 km altitude. Additional release of N₂O leads to an ozone reduction in the middle stratosphere. The reduction in the ozone column is predicted to be equal to 8.8% when the amount of N₂O is doubled. The chemical effect of CH₄ on ozone is particularly important in the troposphere. A doubling in the mixing ratio of this gas enhances the O₃ concentration by 11% at 5 km. The predicted increase of the ozone column is equal to 1.4%. A constant emission of CFCl₃ (230 kT/yr) and CF₂Cl₂ (300 kT/yr) leads to a steady-state reduction in the ozone column of 1.9% compared to the present-day situation. The effect of some uncertainties in the chemical scheme as well as the impact of a high chlorine perturbation are briefly discussed.Finally the results of a time dependent calculation assuming a realistic scenario for the emission of chemical species are presented and analyzed.     

Interaction of atmospheric chemistry and climate and its impact on stratospheric ozone

The interactively coupled chemistry-climate model ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM is employed in sensitivity calculations to investigate feedback mechanisms of dynamic, chemical, and radiative processes. Two multi-year model simulations are carried out, which represent recent atmospheric conditions. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce observed features and trends with respect to dynamics and chemistry of the troposphere and lower stratosphere. In polar regions it is demonstrated that an increased persistence of the winter vortices is mainly due to enhanced greenhouse gas mixing ratios and to reduced ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere. An additional sensitivity simulation is investigated, concerning a possible future development of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and climate. The model results in the Southern Hemisphere indicate that the adopted further increase of greenhouse gas mixing ratios leads to an intensified radiative cooling in the lower stratosphere. Therefore, Antarctic ozone depletion slightly increases due to a larger PSC activity, although stratospheric chlorine is reduced. Interestingly, the behavior in the Northern Hemisphere is different. During winter, an enhanced activity of planetary waves yields a more disturbed stratospheric vortex. This "dynamical heating" compensates the additional radiative cooling due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations in the polar region. In connection with reduced stratospheric chlorine loading, the ozone layer clearly recovers.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF FRONTOGENESIS FORCED BY DUST RADIATIVE HEATING

In this paper,the frontogenesis forced by dust radiative heating and the radiative effects of an isolated duststorrn ona frontal circulation system are examined by means of two-and three-dimensional numerical models.Results indicatethat as a duststorm breaks out, frontogenesis is caused in by dust radiative heating in the lower atmosphere.A markedisentropic potential temperature layer is formed in the middle troposphere.The low-level convergence occurs along thedirection of the front movement.Atnight,dust radiative cooling results in frontolysis in the lower atmosphere.An obvious vertical circulation is forced by radiative heating of an isolated duststorm along the direction of the pre-vailing wind.It is stronger at day,weaker and reverse at night.The response of the horizontal wind field to dust radiativeforcing is different at different levels.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF FRONTOGENESIS FORCED BY DUST RADIATIVE HEATING*

In this paper,the frontogenesis forced by dust radiative heating and the radiative effects of an isolated duststorrn on a frontal circulation system are examined by means of two-and three-dimensional numerical models.Results indicate that as a duststorm breaks out,frontogenesis is caused in by dust radiative heating in the lower atmosphere.A marked isentropic potential temperature layer is formed in the middle troposphere.The low-level convergence occurs along the direction of the front movement.Atnight,dust radiative cooling results in frontolysis in the lower atmosphere.An obvious vertical circulation is forced by radiative heating of an isolated duststorm along the direction of the prevailing wind.It is stronger at day,weaker and reverse at night.The response of the horizontal wind field to dust radiative forcing is different at different levels.     

近60年中国探空观测气温变化趋势及不确定性研究

基于118站探空资料研究了近60年中国850—100 hPa气温变化趋势及季节和区域特征,并通过与1979—2017年卫星微波气温的对比研究了中国探空气温均一化的不确定性。研究表明,1958—2017年中国平均对流层气温呈上升趋势,300 hPa升温最为显著,平流层下层（100 hPa）为降温趋势。冬季对流层上层升温趋势和夏季平流层下层降温趋势较强。1979—2017年较整个时段对流层升温趋势较强,平流层下层降温趋势较弱。青藏高原和西北地区对流层上层升温趋势较强。通过与卫星微波气温和邻近探空站探空气温的对比以及均一化前后日夜气温差值检测出中国探空均一化气温仍残存非均一性问题。由于参照序列的局限性,均一化未能完全去除21世纪最初10年中国探空系统变化造成的对流层中、上层至平流层下层气温系统性下降的影响,导致中国对流层上层升温趋势被低估和平流层下层降温趋势被高估。未来可通过参考卫星微波气温和邻近探空站序列调整非均一性订正顺序并增加合理性检验等方法改进中国探空气温均一化方案。      

近50年我国探空温度序列均一化及变化趋势

利用1958—2005年我国116个站探空温度序列研究了我国高空温度变化趋势。首先通过静力学质量控制和两相回归法对原始序列进行了均一化处理。我国探空温度序列存在明显的间断点, 间断点的订正对于序列的趋势影响较为显著。缺测率是影响我国探空温度序列应用性的重要因子, 也是区域平均趋势统计中台站取舍的指标, 减少台站总数会削弱我国对流层升温和平流层降温的变化趋势。分析表明: 70%作为最小资料有效率标准最为合理。为满足最小资料有效率, 选取92个站统计我国高空温度变化趋势的区域平均值。结果表明: 1958-2005年, 平流层下层和对流层上层降温, 对流层中、低层升温; 高空温度变化趋势与研究时段明显相关, 1958-1978年我国高空大气整层均为降温; 1979—2005年, 对流层中低层升温最为明显, 增暖的幅度随高度增加而减小, 400 hPa以上各层转为降温。对流层的升温始于20世纪80年代, 升温幅度与全球尺度的平均值有所不同。     

Fast-J2: Accurate Simulation of Stratospheric Photolysis in Global Chemical Models

Modeling photochemistry in the stratosphere requires solution of the equationof radiative transfer over an extreme range of wavelengths and atmosphericconditions, from transmission through the Schumann–Runge bands ofO₂ in the mesosphere, to multiple scattering from troposphericclouds and aerosols. The complexity and range of conditions makes photolysiscalculations in 3-D chemical transport models computationally expensive. Thisstudy pesents a fast and accurate numerical method, Fast-J2, for calculatingphotolysis rates (J-values) and the deposition of solar flux in stratosphere.Fast-J2 develops an optimized, super-wide 11-bin quadrature for wavelengthsfrom 177 to 291 nm that concatenates with the 7-bin quadrature (291–850nm) already developed for the troposphere as Fast-J. Below 291 nm the effectsof Rayleigh scattering are implemented as a pseudo-absorption, and above 291nm the full multiple-scattering code of Fast-J is used. Fast-J2 calculates themean ultraviolet-visible radiation field for these 18 wavelength binsthroughout the stratosphere, and thus new species and new cross sections canbe readily implemented. In comparison with a standard, high-resolution,multiple-scattering photolysis model, worst-case errors in Fast-J2 do notexceed 5% over a wide range of solar zenith angles, altitudes(0–60 km), latitudes, and seasons where the rates are important inphotochemistry.     

An assessment of the potential impact of a downward shift of tropospheric water vapor on climate sensitivity

This work uses an energy balance climate model (EBCM) with explicit infrared radiative transfer, parametrized tropospheric temperature and humidity profiles, and separate stratosphere, troposphere, and surface energy balances, to investigate claims that a downward redistribution of tropospheric water vapor in response to surface warming could serve as a strong negative feedback on climatic change. A series of sensitivity tests is carried out using: (1) a variety of relationships between total precipitable water in the troposphere and temperature; (2) feedbacks between surface temperature and the vertical distribution of tropospheric water vapor at low latitudes; and (3) feedback between surface temperature or meridional temperature gradient and lapse rate. Fixed relative humidity (RH) enhances the global mean surface temperature response to a CO₂ doubling by only 50% compared to fixed absolute humidity, giving a response of 1.8 K. When water vapor is assumed to be redistributed downward between 30°S–30°N such that a 1 K surface warming reduces total precipitable water above 600 hPa by 10%, the global mean surface air temperature response is reduced to 1.2 K. Assuming a stronger downward redistribution in relation to surface temperature change has a rapidly diminishing marginal effect on global mean and tropical surface temperature response, while slightly increasing the warming at high latitudes due to the parametrized dependence of middle-to-high latitude lapse rate on the meridional temperature gradient. A modest downward water vapor redistribution, such that absolute humidity in the upper troposphere at subtropical latitudes is constant as total precipitable water increases, can reduce the tropical temperature sensitivity to less than 1 K, while increasing the equator-to-pole amplification of the surface air temperature response from a factor of about three to a factor of four. However, it is concluded that whatever changes in future GCM response might occur as a result of new parametrizations of subgrid-scale processes, they are exceedingly unlikely to produce a climate sensitivity to a CO₂ doubling of less than 1 K even if there is a strong downward shift in the water vapor distribution as climate warms. Received: 23 February 1998 / Accepted: 1 November 1999     

辐射参数化的变化对模式中期和月预报的影响

在T106中期数值预报模式和T63气候模式中进行了两种辐射过程参数化的对比试验。目前在这两个模式中用作对照积分的辐射方案(OPE)是ECMWF的早期业务方案，而新的辐射方案(NEW)是ECMWF 1989年5月2日成为业务的版本。试验结果表明，OPE高估了短波水的吸收，导致太大的短波大气吸收和地表太小的向下短波辐射；OPE还低估了长波辐射冷却和大气顶的向外长波辐射(OLR)；NEW增加了地表有效辐射能量和对流层总的冷却，产生了较大的湍流热通量，对流活动加强，降水量明显增加；NEW还使平流层温度偏暖得到矫正。业务平行试验的统计检验表明，NEW对4～7天中期预报有较显著的改进。