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1.
The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M0?=?1.12×1017 Nm, M w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and fmax?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.  相似文献   

2.
The present study reports the analysis of GPS TEC prior to 3 earthquakes (M > 6.0). The earthquakes are: (1) Loyalty Island (22°36′S, 170°54′E) on 19 January 2009 (M = 6.6), (2) Samoa Island (15°29′S, 172°5′W) on 30 August 2009 (M = 6.6), and (3) Tohoku (38°19′N, 142°22′E) on 11 March 2011 (M = 9.0). In an effort to search for a precursory signature we analysed the land and ocean parameters prior to the earthquakes, namely SLHF (Land) and SST (Ocean). The GPS TEC data indicate an anomalous behaviour from 1–13 days prior to earthquakes. The main purpose of this study was to explore and demonstrate the possibility of any changes in TEC, SST, and SLHF before, during and after the earthquakes which occurred near or beneath an ocean. This study may lead to better understanding of response of land, ocean, and ionosphere parameters prior to seismic activities.  相似文献   

3.
The Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution (GIII) of the extreme value method is employed to evaluate the earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau. This research quantifies spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-year mode beside their 90 % probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Iranian Plateau. Therefore, we used a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900–2013 with magnitude M w ? ?4.0, and the Iranian Plateau is separated into equal area mesh of 1° late?×?1° long. The estimated result of annual mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M w 6.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, most parts of Central and East Iran, Kopeh Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan, and SE Zagros. The 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to overpass the value of M w 7.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, Central and East Iran, Alborz, Kopeh Dagh, and Azerbaijan. The spatial distribution of 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE uncovers the high values of earthquake hazard parameters which are frequently connected with the main tectonic regimes of the studied area. It appears that there is a close communication among the seismicity and the tectonics of the region.  相似文献   

4.
Two zones of seismicity (ten events with M w = 7.0–7.7) stretching from Makran and the Eastern Himalaya to the Central and EasternTien Shan, respectively, formed over 11 years after the great Makran earthquake of 1945 (M w = 8.1). Two large earthquakes (M w = 7.7) hit theMakran area in 2013. In addition, two zones of seismicity (M ≥ 5.0) occurred 1–2 years after theMakran earthquake in September 24, 2013, stretching in the north-northeastern and north-northwestern directions. Two large Nepal earthquakes struck the southern extremity of the “eastern” zone (April 25, 2015, M w = 7.8 and May 12, 2015, M w = 7.3), and the Pamir earthquake (December 7, 2015, M w = 7.2) occurred near Sarez Lake eastw of the “western” zone. The available data indicate an increase in subhorizontal stresses in the region under study, which should accelerate the possible preparation of a series of large earthquakes, primarily in the area of the Central Tien Shan, between 70° and 79° E, where no large earthquakes (M w ≥ 7.0) have occurred since 1992.  相似文献   

5.
A great earthquake of M S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.  相似文献   

6.
A three-dimensional regional ocean model is used to examine the impact of positive Indian ocean dipole (pIOD) events on the coastal upwelling features at the southwest coast of India (SWCI). Two model experiments are carried out with different surface boundary conditions that prevailed in the normal and pIOD years from 1982 to 2010. Model experiments demonstrate the weakening of coastal upwelling at the SWCI in the pIOD years. The reduced southward meridional wind stress off the SWCI leads to comparatively lower offshore Ekman transport during August–October in the pIOD years to that in normal years. The suppressed coastal upwelling results in warmer sea surface temperature and deeper thermocline in the pIOD years during June–September. The offshore spatial extent of upwelled colder (<?22 °C) water was up to 75.5° E in August–September in normal years that was limited up to 76.2° E in pIOD years. The heat budget analysis reveals the decreased contribution of vertical entrainment process to the mixed layer cooling in pIOD years which is almost half of that of normal years in October. The net heat flux term shows warming tendency during May–November with a higher magnitude (+?0.4 °C day?1) in normal years than pIOD years (+?0.28 °C day?1). The biological productivity is found to reduce during the pIOD years as the concentration of phytoplankton and zooplankton decreases over the region of coastal upwelling at SWCI. Nitrate concentration in the pIOD years dropped by half during August–September and dropped by an order of magnitude in October as compared to its ambient concentration of 13 μmol L?1 in normal years.  相似文献   

7.
In this study, pre-seismic and post-seismic total electron content (TEC) anomalies of 63 Mw?≥?5.0 earthquakes in Turkey (36°–42°N, 26°–45°E) were statistically investigated. The largest earthquake that occurred in Turkey during 2003–2016 is the Mw 7.1 Van earthquake on October 23, 2011. The TEC data of epicenters is obtained from CODE-GIM using a simple 4-point bivariate interpolation. The anomalies of TEC variations were determined by using a quartile-based running median process. In order to validate GIM results, we used the GPS-TEC data of available four IGS stations within the size of the Van earthquake preparation area. The anomalies that are detected by GIM and GPS-TEC show a similar pattern. Accordingly, the results obtained with CODE-GIM are reliable. The statistical results show that there are not prominent earthquake precursors for Mw?≤?6.0 earthquakes in Turkey.  相似文献   

8.
The majority of original seismograms recorded at the very beginning of instrumental seismology (the early 1900s) did not survive till present. However, a number of books, bulletins, and catalogs were published including the seismogram reproductions of some, particularly interesting earthquakes. In case these reproductions contain the time and amplitude scales, they can be successfully analyzed the same way as the original records. Information about the Atushi (Kashgar) earthquake, which occurred on August 22, 1902, is very limited. We could not find any original seismograms for this earthquake, but 12 seismograms from 6 seismic stations were printed as example records in different books. These data in combination with macroseismic observations and different bulletins information published for this earthquake were used to determine the source parameters of the earthquake. The earthquake epicenter was relocated at 39.87° N and 76.42° E with the hypocenter depth of about 18 km. We could further determine magnitudes m B = 7.7 ± 0.3, M S = 7.8 ± 0.4, M W = 7.7 ± 0.3 and the focal mechanism of the earthquake with strike/dip/rake ? 260°± 20/30°± 10/90°± 10. This study confirms that the earthquake likely had a smaller magnitude than previously reported (M8.3). The focal mechanism indicates dominant thrust faulting, which is in a good agreement with presumably responsible Tuotegongbaizi-Aerpaleike northward dipping thrust fault kinematic, described in previous studies.  相似文献   

9.
We conducted moment tensor inversion and studied source rupture process for M S=7.9 earthquake occurred in the border area of China, Russia and Mongolia on September 27 2003, by using digital teleseismic P-wave seismograms recorded by long-period seismograph stations of the global seismic network. Considering the aftershock distribution and the tectonic settings around the epicentral area, we propose that the M S=7.9 earthquake occurred on a fault plane with the strike of 127°, the dip of 79° and the rake of 171°. The rupture process inversion result of M S=7.9 earthquake shows that the total rupture duration is about 37 s, the scalar moment tensor is M 0=0.97×1020 N·m. Rupture mainly occurred on the shallow area with 110 km long and 30 km wide, the location in which the rupture initiated is not where the main rupture took place, and the area with slip greater than 0.5 m basically lies within 35 km deep middle-crust under the earth surface. The maximum static slip is 3.6 m. There are two distinct areas with slip larger than 2.0 m. We noticed that when the rupture propagated towards northwest and closed to the area around the M S=7.3 hypocenter, the slip decreased rapidly, which may indicate that the rupture process was stopped by barriers. The consistence of spatial distribution of slip on the fault plane with the distribution of aftershocks also supports that the rupture is a heterogeneous process owing to the presence of barriers.  相似文献   

10.
A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40–83° N and 20–40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0–8.3 moment magnitude (MW) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude MW. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.  相似文献   

11.
This paper investigates the suitability of a three-parameter (scale, shape, and location) Weibull distribution in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. The performance is also compared with two other popular models from same Weibull family, namely the two-parameter Weibull model and the inverse Weibull model. A complete and homogeneous earthquake catalog (Yadav et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 167:1331–1342, 2010) of 20 events (M ≥ 7.0), spanning the period 1846 to 1995 from north–east India and its surrounding region (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E), is used to perform this study. The model parameters are initially estimated from graphical plots and later confirmed from statistical estimations such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and method of moments (MoM). The asymptotic variance–covariance matrix for the MLE estimated parameters is further calculated on the basis of the Fisher information matrix (FIM). The model suitability is appraised using different statistical goodness-of-fit tests. For the study area, the estimated conditional probability for an earthquake within a decade comes out to be very high (≥0.90) for an elapsed time of 18 years (i.e., 2013). The study also reveals that the use of location parameter provides more flexibility to the three-parameter Weibull model in comparison to the two-parameter Weibull model. Therefore, it is suggested that three-parameter Weibull model has high importance in empirical modeling of earthquake recurrence and seismic hazard assessment.  相似文献   

12.
We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral (ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ c and P d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M s  ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.  相似文献   

13.
To study the prospective areas of upcoming strong-to-major earthquakes, i.e., M w  ≥ 6.0, a catalog of seismicity in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region was generated and then investigated statistically. Based on the successful investigations of previous works, the seismicity rate change (Z value) technique was applied in this study. According to the completeness earthquake dataset, eight available case studies of strong-to-major earthquakes were investigated retrospectively. After iterative tests of the characteristic parameters concerning the number of earthquakes (N) and time window (T w ), the values of 50 and 1.2 years, respectively, were found to reveal an anomalous high Z-value peak (seismic quiescence) prior to the occurrence of six out of the eight major earthquake events studied. In addition, the location of the Z-value anomalies conformed fairly well to the epicenters of those earthquakes. Based on the investigation of correlation coefficient and the stochastic test of the Z values, the parameters used here (N = 50 events and T w  = 1.2 years) were suitable to determine the precursory Z value and not random phenomena. The Z values of this study and the frequency-magnitude distribution b values of a previous work both highlighted the same prospective areas that might generate an upcoming major earthquake: (i) some areas in the northern part of Laos and (ii) the eastern part of Myanmar.  相似文献   

14.
In this paper, we analyze the TEC data for April 2013 observed at Agra station, India (geogr. lat. 27.2° N, long. 78° E) to examine the effect of earthquake of magnitude M = 7.8 which occurred on 16 April 2013 at Pakistan–Iran border region. We process the TEC data using the s statistical criterion to find out anomalous variation in TEC data. We also study the VLF propagation signal from NPM, Hawaii (21.42° N, 158° W), which is monitored at the same station (Agra station) in the light of this earthquake as well as solar flares. The nighttime fluctuation method is used to analyze the VLF data for the period of ±5 days from the day of earthquake (11–21 April 2013). The anomalous enhancements and depletions are found in TEC data on 1–9 days before the occurrence of event.  相似文献   

15.
Spatial and temporal evolution of the stress field in the seismically active and well-monitored area of the western Gulf of Corinth, Greece, is investigated. The highly accurate and vast regional catalogues were used for inverting seismicity rate changes into stress variation using a rate/state-dependent friction model. After explicitly determining the physical quantities incorporated in the model (characteristic relaxation time, fault constitutive parameters, and reference seismicity rates), we looked for stress changes across space and over time and their possible association with earthquake clustering and fault interactions. We focused our attention on the Efpalio doublet of January 2010 (M = 5.5 and M = 5.4), with a high aftershock productivity, and attempted to reproduce and interpret stress changes prior to and after the initiation of this seismicity burst. The spatial distribution of stress changes was evaluated after smoothing the seismological data by means of a probability density function (PDF). The inverted stress calculations were compared with the calculations derived from an independent approach (elastic dislocation model) and this comparison was quantified. The results of the two methods are in good agreement (up to 80 %) in the far field, with the inversion technique providing more robust results in the near field, where they are more sensitive to the uncertainties of coseismic slip distribution. It is worth mentioning that the stress inversion model proved to be a very sensitive stress meter, able to detect even small stress changes correlated with spatio–temporal earthquake clustering. Data analysis was attempted from 1975 onwards to simulate the stress changes associated with stronger earthquakes over a longer time span. This approach revealed that only M > 5.5 events induce considerable stress variations, although in some cases there was no evidence for such stress changes even after an M > 5.5 earthquake.  相似文献   

16.
We present the seismic source zoning of the tectonically active Greater Kashmir territory of the Northwestern Himalaya and seismicity analysis (Gutenberg-Richter parameters) and maximum credible earthquake (m max) estimation of each zone. The earthquake catalogue used in the analysis is an extensive one compiled from various sources which spans from 1907 to 2012. Five seismogenic zones were delineated, viz. Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis, Karakorum Seismic Zone, Kohistan Seismic Zone, Nanga Parbat Syntaxis, and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. Then, the seismicity analysis and maximum credible earthquake estimation were carried out for each zone. The low b value (<1.0) indicates a higher stress regime in all the zones except Nanga Parbat Syntaxis Seismic Zone and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. The m max was estimated following three different methodologies, the fault parameter approach, convergence rates using geodetic measurements, and the probabilistic approach using the earthquake catalogue and is estimated to be M w 7.7, M w 8.5, and M w 8.1, respectively. The maximum credible earthquake (m max) estimated for each zone shows that Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis Seismic Zone has the highest m max of M w 8.1 (±0.36), which is espoused by the historical 1555 Kashmir earthquake of M w 7.6 as well as the recent 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake of M w 7.6. The variation in the estimated m max by the above discussed methodologies is obvious, as the definition and interpretation of the m max change with the method. Interestingly, historical archives (~900 years) do not speak of a great earthquake in this region, which is attributed to the complex and unique tectonic and geologic setup of the Kashmir Himalaya. The convergence is this part of the Himalaya is distributed not only along the main boundary faults but also along the various active out-of-sequence faults as compared to the Central Himalaya, where it is mainly adjusted along the main boundary fault.  相似文献   

17.
The spatio-temporal slip distribution of the earthquake that occurred on 8 August 2017 in Jiuzhaigou, China, was estimated from the teleseismic body wave and near-field Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data (coseismic displacements and high-rate GPS data) based on a finite fault model. Compared with the inversion results from the teleseismic body waves, the near-field GNSS data can better restrain the rupture area, the maximum slip, the source time function, and the surface rupture. The results show that the maximum slip of the earthquake approaches 1.4 m, the scalar seismic moment is ~ 8.0 × 1018 N·m (Mw?≈?6.5), and the centroid depth is ~ 15 km. The slip is mainly driven by the left-lateral strike-slip and it is initially inferred that the seismogenic fault occurs in the south branch of the Tazang fault or an undetectable fault, a NW-trending left-lateral strike-slip fault, and belongs to one of the tail structures at the easternmost end of the eastern Kunlun fault zone. The earthquake rupture is mainly concentrated at depths of 5–15 km, which results in the complete rupture of the seismic gap left by the previous four earthquakes with magnitudes >?6.0 in 1973 and 1976. Therefore, the possibility of a strong aftershock on the Huya fault is low. The source duration is ~ 30 s and there are two major ruptures. The main rupture occurs in the first 10 s, 4 s after the earthquake; the second rupture peak arrives in ~ 17 s. In addition, the Coulomb stress study shows that the epicenter of the earthquake is located in the area where the static Coulomb stress change increased because of the 12 May 2017 Mw7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. Therefore, the Wenchuan earthquake promoted the occurrence of the 8 August 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake.  相似文献   

18.
The implications of the earthquakes that took place in the central Ionian Islands in 2014 (Cephalonia, M w6.1, M w5.9) and 2015 (Lefkas, M w6.4) are described based on repeat measurements of the local GPS networks in Cephalonia and Ithaca, and the available continuous GPS stations in the broader area. The Lefkas earthquake occurred on a branch of the Cephalonia Transform Fault, affecting Cephalonia with SE displacements gradually decreasing from north (~100 mm) to south (~10 mm). This earthquake revealed a near N–S dislocation boundary separating Paliki Peninsula in western Cephalonia from the rest of the island, as well as another NW–SE trending fault that separates kinematically the northern and southern parts of Paliki. Strain field calculations during the interseismic period (2014–2015) indicate compression between Ithaca and Cephalonia, while extension appears during the following co-seismic period (2015–2016) including the 2015 Lefkas earthquake. Additional tectonically active zones with differential kinematic characteristics were also identified locally.  相似文献   

19.
On 24 September 2014, a ML 2.3 earthquake occurred southwest of the urban area of Karlsruhe, Germany, which was felt by a few people (maximum intensity I 0?=?III). It was the first seismic event in this highly populated area since an I 0?=?VII earthquake in 1948. Data of 35 permanent and temporary seismometers were analysed to localise the event and to determine the focal mechanism to compare it to previous seismicity. Restricting the data to P- and S-phases from 18 nearby stations and optimising the local earth model result in an epicentre in the southwest of the city at 48.986°N/8.302°E and in a hypocentral depth of 10 km. To calculate the focal mechanism, 22 P- and 5 SH-polarities were determined that constrain a stable left lateral strike-slip focal mechanism with a minor thrusting component and nodal planes striking NE-SW and NW-SE. The epicentre lies in the vicinity of the I 0?=?VII earthquake of 1948. Both events are part of the graben-parallel flower structure beneath the Upper Rhine Graben, parallel to the active Rastatt source zone, which runs 5 km further east and included the epicentre of the 1933 Rastatt I 0?=?VII earthquake. The focal mechanisms of the 2014 and 1948 earthquakes show NE-SW striking nodal planes that dip to the southeast. However, for the 1948 event, a normal faulting mechanism was determined earlier. Taking the uncertainty of the epicentre and focal mechanism in 1948 and its fault dimensions into account, both events might have happened on the same fault plane.  相似文献   

20.
An interpretation of the parameters of earthquake sources is proposed for the two large earthquakes in the Rat Islands of February 4, 1965 (M W = 8.7), and November 17, 2003 (M W = 7.7–7.8), based on the analysis of focal mechanisms, the manifestation of aftershocks, and the specific features of the geological structure of the island slope of the Rat Islands. The source of the earthquake of 1965 is a reverse fault of longitudinal strike, with a length of ~350 km. It is located in the lower part of the Aleutian Terrace and probably is genetically connected with the development of the Rat submarine ridge. The westward boundary of the earthquake source is determined by the Heck Canyon structures, and the eastward boundary is determined by the end of Rat Ridge in the region of λ ~ 179°E–179.5°E. The source of the earthquake of 2003 is a steep E-W reverse fault extending for about 100 km. It is located in the eastern part of the Rat Islands, higher on the slope than the source of the earthquake of 1965. The westward end of the earthquake source is determined by Rat Canyon structures, and the eastward end is an abrupt change in isobaths in the region of λ ~ 179°E. According to the aftershock hypocenters, the depth of occurrence of the reverse fault could reach ~60 km. According to our interpretation, on the southern slope of the Rat and Near islands, there is a complex system of seismogenic faults that is caused by tectonic development of different structural elements. The dominant types of faults here are reverse faults, as in other island arcs. During earthquakes, reverse faults oriented along the island arc and also faults that intersect it exhibit themselves. The reverse faults of northeastern strike that intersect the arc characterize the type of tectonic motions in a series of canyons of the western part of the Aleutian Islands.  相似文献   

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