Real‐Time Calibration of Radar Precipitation Estimates

One of the main concerns with precipitation measurements is that gage networks are almost always too sparse to provide an adequate spatial coverage of storm‐scale precipitation. Gage measurements are representative only at the measurement site and are biased underestimates of the actual precipitation, mainly as a result of the effect of wind on the gage. Consequently, storm‐scale, real‐time assessments using only gage‐measured precipitation are frequently inadequate. With the advent of the WSR‐88D (formerly NEXRAD) weather radars, precipitation estimates at higher spatial resolutions (4 km by 4 km) are now available in real time. These radars use the reflectivity of S‐band (10 cm) microwaves to provide an estimate of precipitation. Unfortunately, reflectivity is a function of the surface area of the raindrops and not their volume. As a result of this and other sources of error, radar precipitation estimates using fixed reflectivity‐to‐rainfall relationships are subject to substantial biases. To provide better high‐resolution precipitation estimates, a gage‐radar precipitation compositing procedure has been developed to enhance real‐time precipitation assessments. Radar estimates provide the spatial ‘footprint’ of the storm while gage data are used to enhance accuracy. This procedure calibrates each radar separately (since biases usually vary by radar), provides a composite mosaic of multiple radars for regions that lie under more than one radar umbrella, and determines an estimate of the uncertainty of the calibration.     

Comparing the spatial extent of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone wind and rain fields prior to land interaction

Understanding changes in the size of tropical cyclone (TC) wind and rain fields before landfall can improve identification of areas that may experience damage. We examine 25 Atlantic basin TCs for 36 h before gale-force winds (R17) cross land. Rain field extents are measured from satellite estimates of rain rates using a Geographic Information System. In each quadrant, R17 is obtained from the Extended Best Track data-set and correlated with the extent of the rain field. In general, both fields expand prior to landfall. The non-linearity of this trend poses problems for persistence forecast models. The largest wind fields are located over the Atlantic Ocean. Correlations between wind and rain field extent are strongly positive for Atlantic cases regardless of whether extratropical transition (ET) occurs and are associated with the direction of vertical wind shear. Poor correlations exist for Gulf observations. Rain fields extend farther towards the east during ET when vertical wind shear is stronger, but wind fields are not significantly different when separating cases based on whether or not ET occurs. As rain fields extend farther than wind fields in 33% of Gulf cases, moderately heavy rainfall may commence before damaging winds arrive, decreasing the time available for preparedness activities.     

一次秋季沙尘暴的诊断和天气雷达观测分析

使用NCEP 1°×1°每天4次的再分析资料对2006年10月5日发生在甘肃、内蒙古西部、蒙古国南部沙尘暴天气的位势涡度、干侵入、局地垂直螺旋度进行了诊断分析。分析结果表明：对流层高层的高位势涡度库位势涡度柱向下、向南伸展,在等熵面陡立处,垂直涡度分量急剧增大,使锋面低压迅速发展,低空急流形成;高空干冷空气向东南下侵,蒙古国南部从西到东的大风、沙尘暴由下滑冷锋引起,持续时间长,强度强;河西走廊、内蒙古西部的大风、沙尘暴由上滑冷锋引起,持续时间短,强度相对弱。利用张掖CINRAD-CC天气雷达观测数据对导致张掖沙尘暴的β中尺度双阵风锋结构进行了初步分析,认为第二条阵风锋使风速忽然加大,阵风锋的辐合上升使沙尘扬起抬升,能见度讯速下降。     

位涡和Q矢量诊断在毛乌素沙地沙尘天气预报中的应用

利用常规的天气图、卫星云图、湿位涡和Q矢量等,对2007年4月30日和2007年5月2日发生在毛乌素沙地的两次沙尘天气进行了综合分析\.结果表明:对流层低层MPV1＜0中尺度对流不稳定区的生成,为干对流的发生提供了不稳定能量条件;来自上游对流层中高层的干侵入和扰动干侵入在沙尘天气发生过程中起着重要作用;对流层低层由Q矢量辐散、辐合激发生成的次级环流为沙尘天气发生、发展和维持提供了动力机制。在对毛乌素沙地中β尺度沙尘暴的预报预警过程中,同时应考虑下沉对流有效位能的作用。     

影响中国西北及青藏高原沙尘天气变化的因子分析

利用1948—2006年的NCEP(2.5°×2.5°)月平均再分析资料,分析了影响西北及青藏高原沙尘天气变化的动力、热力因子。结果表明:①200 hPa副热带西风急流是影响沙尘天气的动力因子,高层天气系统的季节性变化,导致了其位置及强弱的季节性变化,从而导致了高原南部扬沙、沙尘暴季节性南北移动;急流的动力结构使局地环流得以形成,局地环流的下沉支流使得高空动量下传,使地面风速增大,从而使扬沙和沙尘暴发生。②浮尘和扬沙、沙尘暴天气成因有所不同,地表温度等热力因素对浮尘天气有直接影响;而急流等动力因子则影响浮尘天气的频率,对发生范围影响较小;动力因子是扬沙、沙尘暴发生的直接原因;500 hPa锋生函数大值带的季节性南北移动也是扬沙、沙尘暴南北季节性变化的重要原因。③500 hPa水汽输送带的边缘是扬沙和沙尘暴容易发生的区域。④地表湿度是沙尘天气发生的一个因子,当地表较干时,沙尘天气发生频率增加,而当地表湿度增大时,沙尘天气发生的频率减小。     

A global climatology of extreme rainfall rates in the inner core of intense tropical cyclones

The localized rain rate maxima (R_M) of the inner core region of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are investigated using Version 6 of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis data-set from 1998 to 2010. Specifically, this study examines the probabilities of R_M exceeding 25 mm h^?1 (P25) in intense TCs. The 25 mm h^?1 R_M is the 90th percentile of all R_M observations during the study period. The descending order of P25 observed from intense TCs for the six major ocean basins is: the North Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the South Pacific Ocean, the South Indian Ocean, and the East-central Pacific Ocean. The six major basins have been subdivided into 29 sub-basins to discern regional variability of R_M. P25 increases with increasing TC category in all major basins, except for the South Pacific. Sub-basins with intense TCs that produce extreme rainfall rate maxima include the Bay of Bengal, the South Philippine Sea, the East China Sea, the north coast of Australia, southeast Melanesia, and the Northwest Atlantic. Sub-basins with a higher proportion of category 5 (CAT5) observations than category 3 (CAT3) observations tend to have a greater P25 beyond 60 km from the storm center.     

The spatial distribution of tornadoes and high wind impacts associated with inland-moving tropical cyclones in the southeastern United States

The southeastern United States is routinely hit by tropical cyclones (TC). As TC track inland and dissipate their inland impacts can be substantial. This study examined the spatial patterns of societal impacts associated with tornadoes and high winds with 31 inland-moving TC that made landfall from 1985 to 2008. Hourly weather information was collected from all available first-order weather stations affected by each storm, as well as tropical cyclone preliminary reports issued from the National Hurricane Center. Societal impacts were identified through selected newspapers across the region and the National Climatic Data Center’s Storm Data. Geographic Information System (GIS) software was employed to make geometric measurements of the distance and direction of the impacts relative to storm center. From these measurements, the spatial distribution of the societal and meteorological impacts was plotted relative to the track (e.g., left vs. right) and location (forward vs. rear sector) of the cyclone center. Various tropical cyclone attributes, including size, strength, and forward speed of movement were then related to the occurrence of different impacts and their location relative to the cyclone track. The majority of tropical cyclone tornado and high wind impacts occur in the right-forward sector of the tropical cyclone. However, many TC produce impacts that occur in other sectors far from the center of circulation. These abnormalities are associated in many cases with interactions between the tropical cyclone circulation, topography, peripheral dry air, and extratropical synoptic weather features.     

中山站高频雷达观测结果初步分析

中山站高频相干散射雷达于2010年4月建成投入观测,并加盟SuperDARN雷达观测网,成为我国探测电离层对流的重要手段。首先简要介绍中山站高频雷达的工作原理及工作模式,然后利用该雷达第一年的观测数据,给出了每个波束观测的电离层回波总数随距离和回波强度、多普勒速度及谱宽的分布,以及电离层回波发生率随频率的变化特性。观测结果和射线追踪的模拟计算表明,由于波束指向不同,电波波矢方向与地磁场形成正交条件的区域有所不同,因此会造成不同频率下,不同波束观测的电离层回波发生率的差别。     

层次分析法在下垫面因子影响沙尘暴危险度研究中的应用

沙尘暴是一种危害严重的气象灾害,其形成依赖于大气环流和沙质地表两种不同密度的物理介质的相互作用,风力条件和下垫面的性质是影响沙尘暴强度和危害程度的两个重要因素。减轻沙尘暴危害的有效方法就是改善沙尘暴源地的下垫面状况,但这需要评估下垫面各因子在不同天气、气候背景条件下对沙尘暴发生的影响程度。从下垫面的角度出发,以内蒙古中西部地区为例,利用气象资料和实测数据,应用AHP方法对下垫面定性与定量因子进行综合分析,得出不同地区下垫面因子对沙尘暴发生作用的权重,为从下垫面角度研究沙尘暴危险度奠定基础。     

The Circulation Dynamical Structure of a Severe Dust Storm Process in Northwest China

 根据常规观测资料和美国NCEP/NCAR提供的1°×1° 6 h再分析资料,对2006年4月9—11日我国西北地区大范围沙尘天气过程环流动力特征等进行了分析。结果表明,高空急流、相对涡度和垂直速度在沙尘暴发生发展的不同时期有着较好的配置,沙尘暴发展的强盛期,相对涡度和垂直速度的不对称结构亦较强,在高空急流中心下方存在一个北部上升南部下沉的反环流,沙尘暴主要发生在高空急流中心南侧37°—44° N范围内,即在反环流区域的下沉气流区和热低压北部上升气流区。     

2012年7月下旬河套地区4次切变暴雨的对比分析

应用日常预报业务中可以方便使用的常规观测资料、数值预报产品、卫星云图、加密自动站观测资料以及雷达资料等,从环流背景、流型配置、物理机制等方面对比分析了河套地区4次暴雨过程,旨在提高对暴雨的短期预报预测能力及短时强降水的临近预警能力。分析发现：（1）副热带高压西侧的偏南气流以及来自孟加拉湾的暖湿偏南气流在35°—40°N与来自高纬度的干冷的偏北气流多次交汇,水汽在该带中明显辐合,为河套地区持续性暴雨发生发展提供源源不断的水汽,提供水汽辐合上升动力条件;（2）暴雨落区与低层的显著流线出口区或急流出口区的位置、切变线的位置密切相关,暴雨一般落在高空急流的右侧、低空急流的左侧;（3）暴雨天气出现前一般会出现500 hPa以下θ随高度的增加而减少的特征;（4）暴雨天气出现前一般都会出现风随高度顺转的特征;（5）暴雨过程中地面辐合线起到动力抬升作用,触发中小尺度系统的生成和发展;（6）抬升凝结高度和自由对流高度都比较低,利于水汽凝结,而平衡高度较高,利于能量的积累,对于对流天气的预报有较好的指示意义。     

我国西北干旱区区域性沙尘暴特征及成因研究

利用1954-2001年131个国家基本基准气象站的逐日观测资料, 运用小波分析等统计方法分析了中国西北地区区域性沙尘暴天气过程特征及变化趋势, 并对其成因进行了初步探讨。结果表明: 1954-2001年, 中国西北地区共出现了1974次区域沙尘暴天气过程, 平均每年42次, 共出现了247次强沙尘暴天气过程, 平均每年5次。沙尘暴和强沙尘暴天气过程的地理分布比较一致, 有两个高发区: 一个位于南疆盆地; 另一个位于西北地区东部。沙尘暴天气过程主要发生在3~7月, 强沙尘暴天气过程集中发生在3~5月。近48a来区域沙尘暴和强沙尘暴天气过程都呈波动下降趋势, 且强沙尘暴天气过程比沙尘暴天气过程下降趋势更为剧烈。1956-1987年是沙尘暴和强沙尘暴天气过程的多发时期, 1988年后无论沙尘暴或强沙尘暴天气过程均大幅减少。2月的北极涛动指数对当年沙尘暴天气过程的发生多少具有预报意义。     

山区地形对暴雨的影响

本文分析了各种不同的自然条件下山区地形对暴雨的影响，指出山区复杂下垫面的热力和动力作用对暴雨有触发、加强或削弱、消亡的影响，在不同的区域地理背景下，地形的影响各不相同，在相同的地理背景下，不同的地形形态对暴雨的影响也有较大差异，地形性强迫抬升和辐合是触发暴雨和使之加强的重要机制，地形性辐射和下沉区对应暴雨的低频区，背区波暴雨过程在西北、华北的冷锋天气过程中较为多见，夏季山区局地对流性暴雨过程在凌晨     

WRF模式中3种闪电参数化方案的对比分析

利用WRF 模式V3.6.1 中3 种基于经验公式的闪电参数化方案对2013-07-05 江苏省内的1 次飑线过程进行数值模拟,对比3 种方案在模拟闪电位置和频数的特点,分析模拟结果的成因。结果表明：PR92w 方案能够很好地模拟闪电的分布位置;PR92z 方案的模拟结果和PR92w 方案正好相反,闪电频数与实测结果有很好的一致性但分布位置出现偏移;LPI 方案虽然能指示闪电分布区域,但对高闪电密度区的预报有一定误差。3 种方案的模拟结果表明：垂直风速和雷达回波是影响模式预报闪电频数和分布的重要因素。因此,增大网格模拟精度和同化雷达资料是改善PR92 方案模拟效果的重要途径。     

民勤一次沙尘暴天气过程的稳定度分析

用2004年5月23—24日民勤基准气象站发生的一次沙尘暴天气过程加密探测,对大气热力参数“3 θ”和动力参数“相对风暴螺旋度”进行了计算和分析。结果表明：沙尘暴来临前到沙尘暴过境的前半期,大气温湿结构的分布有利于沙尘暴的发生、发展;沙尘暴过境的后期,大气层结调整到稳定状态,抑制了干对流的发展;沙尘暴天气结束后整层大气湿度增大,并出现了小雨天气。沙尘暴期间相对风暴螺旋度值小于雷暴等强烈湿对流的临界值,但仍然与沙尘暴的强度有很好的对应关系。     

Spatial distribution of tropical cyclone rainfall and its contribution to the climatology of Puerto Rico

This study explores two different tropical cyclone rainfall (TCR) problems: first, the identification of areas where TCR is highly concentrated and, second, the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) to the climatology of Puerto Rico for the period 1970–2010. A total of 86 storms within a 500-km radius of Puerto Rico were analyzed. Daily and monthly rainfall data from 32 weather stations were used to generate interpolated surfaces. Two geostatistical interpolation techniques were implemented: ordinary kriging and ordinary cokriging. Results show that rainfall from most TCs tends to be clustered in the eastern, southeastern, and central regions of the island, with a decrease in values toward the west. TCs closer to Puerto Rico (≤230 km) and embedded in high moisture environments (≥44.5 mm) exhibited the highest rainfall values, with most concentrated in the high elevation areas of the southeastern region of the island. Months with the largest TC contributions to rainfall (20–30%) were August and September, while the lowest contributions were found in June and November. For August, stations in the southern and eastern portions of the island had TCR contributions of >20%, with some stations in the southern coastal plains exhibiting 30%.     

滇西南两次飑线过程的地闪演变特征分析

利用雷电定位资料、多普勒雷达资料和FY-2E卫星资料对发生在滇西南的两次台风低压西行形成飑线过程的地闪变化特征进行了对比分析,结果表明：2次飑线过程均以负地闪占主导地位,“7．17”过程正、负地闪频数峰值均出现在飑线成熟阶段,正地闪峰值超前于负地闪峰值10～15min;正、负地闪集中发生在冷中心区后侧的温度梯度大值区和辐合线附近回波强度t〉40dBz、回波顶高≥12km的强回波区域;“9．22”过程正地闪频数呈单峰型变化,负地闪出现3个峰值,对应着3次飑线发展,密集负地闪出现在前侧TBB温度梯度大值区和强回波区左后侧强度≥40dBz、回波顶高≥12km的强回波区;负地闪减弱阶段正地闪开始活跃正地闪出现在后侧冷云中心。两次飑线过程中-10℃层回波强度的跃增总超前于负地闪的跃增6—30min左右。     

Hurricane 07B in the Godavari Delta, Andhra Pradesh, India: vulnerability, mitigation and the spatial impact

Few hurricane impact studies provide robust spatial parameters of damage or relate geographical patterns of destruction accurately to storm trajectories or agencies. A detailed spatial analysis is, therefore, presented of the destruction caused by tropical hurricane 07B which made landfall on 6/7 November 1996 over the Godavari Delta region, Andhra Pradesh, eastern India. Patterns of destruction by storm surge, wind and flood water are quantitatively mapped for death tolls, house destruction and agricultural damage using local administrative ( mandal ) data bases. Results show that most impact occurred near the coast, but a well-defined path of destruction across the central part of the delta can be identified. Such mapping studies fail to indicate the types of individuals and social groups most affected by the storm hazard and their response to it. An investigation of landowning farmers, female migrant rural labourers and fishing communities in the delta shows that poverty and social ordering in Indian society puts differential limits on the risk reduction abilities of individuals and social groups in the face of the cyclone hazard. The paper also demonstrates that 'top down' institutional measures to reduce the effects of storm damage such as those introduced in the aftermath of hurricane 07B, including early storm warning and evacuation procedures and rehabilitation programmes, remain largely ineffective. It is suggested that the introduction of more 'bottom up' community-based programmes which seek to improve the risk awareness and risk avoiding abilities of affected individuals and groups would be much more beneficial. The case material on hurricane 07B and its effects are placed in context by reviewing and updating long and medium-term time series records of storm frequencies and impacts in the Bay of Bengal and particularly along the eastern coastline of India.     

Cloud-to-ground lightning signatures of long-lived tornadic supercells on 27–28 April 2011

This study integrates past research methodologies, data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), and geographic information system techniques to assess the lightning and severe weather hazard relationship for the 27–28 April 2011 United States tornado outbreak. NLDN and Doppler radar data are used to examine the cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning characteristics associated with seven supercell thunderstorms that produced long-track, significant and/or violent tornadoes. Analyses indicate that CG lightning flashes alone do not provide enough information for the detection of a lightning jump prior to tornadogenesis. All seven supercells were dominated by negative-polarity CG lightning flashes; which is expected due to the geographic location and elevated low-level moisture found in the outbreak environment. The correlation between low-level mesocyclone strength and total CG lightning flash rate was varied and inconsistent among all storms despite their formation and sustenance in similar environmental and geographic space. Additional case studies, as well as climatological approaches, are required to discover if the varying lightning–tornado relationships found in this study are consistent with other tornadic environments.     

An algorithm for converting weather radar data into GIS polygons and its application in severe weather warning systems

An algorithm was developed for converting radar data from matrix format into polygons that can be easily visualized, processed, and analyzed using Geographic Information Systems. Spatial operators can be used to overlap radar polygons with land surface features represented by points, lines, and polygons to meet the demands of severe weather identification and tracking and risk recognition. Application and testing of the algorithm demonstrate that the converted radar polygons are suitable for use in weather modification, risk assessments of flash floods in urban areas, and the identification of lightning activity for lightning risk recognition, all of which are essential in real-time severe weather monitoring and warning.