Approach to Mountain Hazards in Tibet, China

Tibet is located at the southwest boundary of China. It is the main body of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the highest and the youngest plateau in the world. Owing to complicated geology, Neo-tectonic movements, geomorphology, climate and plateau environment, various mountain hazards, such as debris flow, flash flood, landslide, collapse, snow avalanche and snow drifts, are widely distributed along the Jinsha River (the upper reaches of the Yangtze River), the Nu River and the Lancang River in the east, and the Yarlungzangbo River, the Pumqu River and the Poiqu River in the south and southeast of Tibet. The distribution area of mountain hazards in Tibet is about 589,000 km^2, 49.3% of its total territory. In comparison to other mountain regions in China, mountain hazards in Tibet break out unexpectedly with tremendously large scale and endanger the traffic lines, cities and towns, farmland, grassland, mountain environment, and make more dangers to the neighboring countries, such as Nepal, India, Myanmar and Bhutan. To mitigate mountain hazards, some suggestions are proposed in this paper, such as strengthening scientific research, enhancing joint studies, hazards mitigation planning, hazards warning and forecasting, controlling the most disastrous hazards and forbidding unreasonable human exploring activities in mountain areas.     

东亚大陆形变应力场格局演化的数值模拟

用数值模拟方法研究了印度板块和欧亚板块碰撞后40 Ma以来青藏高原的挤压隆升、东亚大陆形变及应力场的演化过程.模型将东亚大陆限定在一梯形边界框架之中,大陆岩石层被视为由幂指数律控制的薄层,它上伏在粘滞性较低的软流层之上蠕变流动.模型设定印度板块以5 cm/a的恒定速度向北推进,并视其为青藏高原挤压隆升的主要驱动力.除此可活动边界之外,其余均被设为固定边界.数值模拟结果表明,模型预测的现代水平形变速度和GPS观测的格局吻合很好;数值模拟所确定的中国及邻区之区域构造应力场格局与用地震、地质观测所推断的东亚大陆现代构造应力场也能够吻合.这一结果意味着印度板块和欧亚板块的碰撞、挤压是构成现代中国大陆内部岩石层水平形变及应力场格局的主要驱动力.模型计算还表明,大陆水平形变及应力场格局受多种因素如岩石层的力学参数,特别是边界条件的制约.     

Planation surfaces on the Tibet Plateau, China

A planation hypothesis is proposed to explain landform evolution of the Tibet Plateau. A denudation threshold （T）, the maximum potential denudation rate for a certain type of rock, is introduced to explain the combined effects of lithology and tectonics on landform evolution. If the tectonic uplifting rate （U） is equal to or less than the threshold rate （U ≤ T）, the tectonic uplifting and terrain denudation are in dynamic equilibrium, and landforms are in a steady state. The end product should be planation surfaces whether the original landforms are flat plains or deeply dissected mountains. If U 〉 T, uplift and denudation are not able to reach a dynamic equilibrium state. The plateau surface is mostly underlain by soft rocks, such as the Mesozoic epimetamorphic argillites and Tertiary sedimentary rocks, while the mountain ranges comprise hard rocks, such as granite, gneiss and limestone. In soft rock regions, hills are low with a relative relief of mostly less than 100 m and the slopes are gentle at a gradient of 〈200. In contrast, hills can maintain steep slopes in hard rock regions. The Tibet Plateau has been under an equilibrium condition between tectonic uplifting and denudation except for the mountain ranges. The plateau might have reached the present altitudes before the Quaternary.     

走滑断裂活动导致地应力解耦的机理研究——以龙门山断裂带东北段为例

2008年汶川MS8.0地震后,沿龙门山断裂带系列水压致裂地应力测量结果表明,断裂带东北段(茂县-绵竹连线东北侧)北川、平武及广元等地浅表层最大主应力方向与区域应力场相比发生了25°~69°不等的偏转,亦称地应力解耦。初步分析认为,龙门山断裂带东北段的右旋走滑活动直接导致了区域内最大主应力方向的解耦,且最大主应力方位向偏转角度与断裂右旋走滑活动量正相关。为合理解释这一现象,探讨走滑断裂活动导致地应力解耦的机理,本文采用二维有限元数值模拟方法,选取汶川MS8.0地震断裂(龙门山中央断裂)上的同震右旋走滑位移作为边界条件,首先模拟了龙门山断裂带东北段右旋走滑活动产生的扰动应力特征,之后结合断裂带附近典型钻孔地应力测量结果,叠加该扰动应力作用,从力学机理上深入剖析断裂右旋走滑活动产生的扰动应力对区域应力场(或初始应力场)的影响,并对其附近不同构造部位最大主应力方向偏转现象进行定量解释。初步结果表明：1) 走滑断裂活动导致地应力解耦主要是通过断裂滑动产生的扰动应力对区域应力场的附加影响实现的;2) 在固定的断裂活动长度和摩擦强度情况下,走滑断裂活动导致区域最大主应力方向偏转角度基本与活动断裂走滑位移量呈正比;3) 受汶川MS8.0地震影响,龙门山断裂带大致以茂县-绵竹为界,西南侧的宝兴-映秀-汶川一带最大主应力方向偏转角度很小,基本与区域应力场一致,而东北侧的北川-平武-广元一带则发生角度不等的偏转,3个地区最大主应力方向平均偏转角度分别为65°、56°和29°,该角度与龙门山断裂带东北段同震右旋走滑位移量呈正相关。     

青藏高原东南缘壳幔力学耦合及其动力学意义

现代大陆动力学及构造学研究认为,壳内软弱带控制着地壳与地幔间相互作用的强弱,制约岩石圈层间的耦合关系,同时也影响地块的相互作用方式。这种耦合作用可以通过比较不同深度的形变和应力的相关特征来分析。青藏高原东南缘20～35 km的深度广泛存在低速带,有可能在现今地震及构造活动区内由壳内部分熔融承担了潜在的解耦功能。基于1999～2015年GPS坐标时间序列数据得到速度场,结合前人给出的SKS剪切波分裂数据,分析该区水平方向形变耦合特征;同时搜集莫霍面和岩石圈底面形变数据,给出垂向上的形变耦合特征。利用EGM2008重力模型的11～36阶球谐系数计算青藏高原东南缘岩石圈底面地幔对流应力场;搜集并整理2000年至今的1 131个震源机制解数据,采用区域应力张量阻尼反演法得到该区多震层应力场;进一步分析两种应力场的相关性。在ABAQUS软件中建立青藏高原东南缘岩石圈三维粘弹性有限元模型,同时加入上地壳的边界位移约束条件和底面地幔对流拖曳力加载条件,分别对水平方向和垂直方向的应力应变作分析,并给出强震剖面结果,探讨壳幔耦合强震孕育机制,据此分析青藏高原东南缘各个断层的地震危险性。研究认为,应力的不均匀发展是应变能积累的关键,同时垂向上圈层间的耦合关系极大地影响块体间的作用方式;壳内软弱带广泛发育的块体应力出现分层现象,边缘区域横向纵向应力变化明显,与之接触的上伏地壳地震危险性较高。     

西藏高原短临天气预报预警系统构建研究

参考气象信息综合分析处理系统和卫星广域网灾害天气短时临近预报预警系统的界面操作特征,利用现有卫星遥感资料、自动站资料、闪电定位资料、探空资料和常规气象要素资料等观测资料,以及已研制的有关西藏高原的降水预报预警模型、物理统计诊断模型和三维云模式预报模型等,同时考虑西藏高原地区雷达资料应用的地理障碍,设计构建了西藏高原短临天气预报预警系统。通过可视化简单编程指令代码语言环境实现了能集成气象信息综合分析处理系统的信息分析功能、适合西藏高原的短临天气预报预警的实用系统。     

Sandy Desertification Status and its Driving Mechanism in North Tibet Plateau

As the main body of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, North Tibet Plateau is one of three major sandy desertification regions in China and also a representative sandy desertification zone of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Accordingly, it is an important region for the study of recent sandy desertification processes and formation mechanism. From such aspects as desertified land types, areas and distributions etc., this paper analyses in detail the sandy desertification status on North Tibet Plateau, and qualitatively and quantitatively deals with the main factors that affect recent sandy desertification processes and the driving mechanism. Research results show that North Tibet Plateau is an important sandy desertificafion region in China characterized with large desertified land areas, diversified types, high severity, extensive distributions and serious damages. Sandy desertification occurrence and development resulted from combined effects of natural factors, anthropogenic factors, natural processes and man-made processes, of which climatic change is the main driving force.     

青藏高原隆升的非线性动态有限元仿真研究

根据青藏高原的地质特征建立分析模型，采用3维动态有限元方法，在计算仿真板块速度场的基础上，计算在青藏高原的隆升过程中该地区地壳岩石的等效应力和位移随时间的变化，计算仿真得到的速度场与1998年GPS观测的速度场吻合良好；与过去一贯的假设相反，计算结果反映出地壳应力场不是静态的，而是此起彼伏，不断变化的，应力值最大且变化最剧烈的地区在克什米尔地区、鄂尔多斯地区和鲜水河－小江断裂带，与地震多发区域吻合。     

Florogeography of mire plants in southern part of qinghai-xizang plateau and its adjacent areas

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Origin of the regional stress field along the Liquine-Ofqui Fault Zone （LOFZ）, Southern Chilean Andes by means of FE Simulation

The Liquine-Ofqui Fault Zone （LOFZ） of southern Chilean Andes is one of the largest active strike-slip fault zones. There is an ongoing debate regarding the origin of the stress field along the LOFZ due to its complex geometry. This paper represents a study of the origins of the LOFZ regional stress field. Stress fields are calculated by finite element （FE） analysis. The two possible stress origins, i.e., oblique plate convergence and ridge collision/indenter tectonics of Chile ridge against Peru-Chile trench, have been emphasized in the present study. Three types of boundary conditions for the three particular models have been applied to calculate stress fields. Models are assumed to be elastic and plane stress condition. Modeling results are presented in terms of four parameters, i. e., orientation of maximum horizontal stress （σHmax）, displacement vector, strain distribution, and maximum shear stress （ τmax ） contour line within the model. The results of the first model with oblique plate convergence show inconsistency between the geometric shape of the LOFZ and the distribution of the four parameters. Although more realistic results are obtained from the second model with normal ridge collision, there are few coincident in the LOFZ geometry and regional stress field. The third model with normal and oblique ridge collision is reasonable in understanding the origin of stress field and geometrical condition in the lithosphere of the LOFZ.     

青藏块体北部构造形变与玉门5.9级地震

依据GPS观测的青藏块体内部的水平运动以及跨断层形变观测结果的总体异常特征，对昆仑山口西8．1级地震引起的近期地壳运动变化特征进行了分析。结合中国西部的受力环境，讨论了青藏块体内部不同断裂带力学上的相互关联。认为2002年12月14日玉门5．9级地震与昆仑山口西8．1级地震之间存在着构造和力学上的内在联系，它可能是在昆仑山口西8．1级地震的影响下，青藏块体北缘地区相关构造局部应力场适应性调整的产物。     

利用加密GNSS数据和震源机制解分析川滇块体南部现今地壳活动特性

利用多源项目获得的补充加密GNSS观测资料计算研究区高空间分辨率的GNSS水平运动速度场和应变率场,采用地震波形资料,通过CAP方法求解震源机制解,在此基础上使用阻尼区域应力反演方法分析川滇地块区域构造应力场的空间分布特征。结合主要断裂的活动特性,综合分析川滇地区的地壳形变特征。结果表明：1）块体浅部的最大主压应力与地表的最大主压应变率由SSE向转变为近SN向,呈现出较好的一致性,GNSS观测至少可反映20 km以内的地壳形变;2）川滇块体南部的东向滑移和顺时针旋转,可能受青藏高原推挤、华南块体阻挡及印度板块与欧亚板块之间北向运动速率自西向东递减而形成的右旋剪切拖拽作用的顺时针力偶的综合影响;3）川滇块体在综合力偶作用下SE向挤出和顺时针旋转的同时,受到走滑逆冲断裂带的吸收转换,使得青藏高原物质SE向挤出有限。     

PRESENT-DAY CRUSTAL MOVEMENT OF NORTH-EASTERN QINGHAI-TIBET PLATEAU

1　IntroductionEnclosedbyBayankalablockatsouth ,Alashanblockatnorth ,Tarimblockatwest,OrdosatnortheastandSouthChinablocksateast,thenorth easternQinghai Tibetanplateau ,geologicallynamedasQilianblockanditsadjacentarea ,isanidealre gionforstudyingcontinentaldynamics,suchascrustalthickening ,extrusionandblockinteraction(Fig .1 ) .ThetectonicmovementsofnortheasternQinghai Tibetanplateau ,thestrongnappe (thrust ing)movementofnorthernQilianmountainandtheextensiveleft lateralslipalongQilian Hai…     

鄂尔多斯块体周缘中小地震震源机制及应力场特征

利用基于P波初动和振幅比反演震源机制解的HASH方法,得到鄂尔多斯块体周缘2008-01~2014-06共1 700个ML2.5以上地震的震源机制解,从中选取结果较为可靠的1 581个地震的震源机制解,将研究区域划分为1°×1°的网格,采用阻尼区域应力反演方法（MSATSI软件）获得了研究区域内中小地震震源机制解特征和应力场图像。鄂尔多斯块体周缘震源机制解类型以正断和走滑为主,应力场反演结果表明,鄂尔多斯周缘应力状态以拉张为主,局部区域存在剪切、挤压。块体北缘和西缘的最大水平主应力优势方位为 NE向,一致性较好;块体东缘和南缘的最大水平压应力方向与区域内主要活动构造方向基本平行,东缘最大水平主应力方向从南段的近EW向、NEE向逐渐过渡到NE向,南缘是NWW-SEE 和近 EW向。通过分析研究区域应力状态和最大水平主应力方向认为,银川-吉兰泰南端近NS向活动断裂的剪切应力状态的出现,是由于近NS向活动断裂在NE向挤压应力作用下发生了右旋剪切运动;块体西南缘NEE向的挤压和剪切的应力状态与青藏块体对鄂尔多斯块体的直接作用,以及六盘山断裂带第四纪以来强烈的挤压性质及左旋走滑运动有关;大同盆地出现局部剪切应力状态可能与盆地下方的火山有关。     

昆仑8.1级地震前青藏块体东北缘构造运动特征

利用青藏块体东北缘1993、1999和2001年的GPS观测资料和1980年以来的跨断层流动形变资料，分析了昆仑8．1级地震前青藏块体东北缘地区水平运动演变与断层异常活动的一些特征。结果显示：震前水平运动与变形强度减弱，断层形变异常发育。结合块体和构造研究认为，青藏块体内部8．1级大震的蕴育和发生，对块体边界构造区域影响显著；震后调整和应力转移可能加速块体东北部某些构造部位应变能的积累。     

青藏高原旅游经济与生态环境协调效应测度及交互胁迫关系验证

青藏高原地区壮美的自然风光、神奇的人文景观和独特的民族文化,使其成为国内外旅游者倾心向往的世外桃源,亟需进一步探究其旅游经济与生态环境之间的交互耦合关系。本文创建青藏高原旅游经济与生态环境综合评价指标体系,采用青海省和西藏自治区15个地市州2000-2017年面板数据探究旅游经济与生态环境协调效应及交互胁迫关系。结果显示： ① 2000-2017年青藏高原仅有拉萨和西宁旅游经济指数呈现快速增长趋势,其余地市州均呈现缓慢增长趋势,生态环境指数整体较高,仅有西宁和海东呈现波动增长趋势,其余地市州变化平缓;② 青藏高原旅游经济与生态环境复合系统协调度时序上呈现波动增长趋势,空间上呈现南高北低、东高西低的分布格局;青海呈现以西宁为核心,逐层向外递减的核心-边缘空间格局;西藏呈现以拉萨为中心,南高北低的空间格局;③ 青藏高原复合系统协同效应子类型主要是旅游经济滞后型,西宁和拉萨呈现“旅游经济滞后-系统均衡发展-生态环境滞后”的变化趋势;④ 基于双指数模型证实了青藏高原旅游经济与生态环境之间具有交互胁迫关系。     

基于DEM的一体化山地特征要素提取

山顶点和山脊线等特征地形要素是构成地表地形及其起伏变化的基本框架,对地形在地表的空间分布具有控制作用。基于DEM研究山顶点、山脊线及其空间组合关系,是DEM地表形态特征研究的重要内容,也是衔接从地形特征分析向山峰等地貌学本源语言的途径之一。本文以四川盆地西南缘与青藏高原过渡地带的川西凉山山原为例,基于山峰-山脊线-控制范围一体化构建的算法策略,识别了山峰和山脊线及其等级、主山脊及其范围。结果表明,研究区内有主峰9座,次峰53座,平均高程2540 m;山脊线230条,其中主山脊9条,平均长度60 km;9大山系,近南北走向,平均控制面积1017 km^2。研究用模糊隶属度方法对算法所提取的主峰、主脉进行精度验证,隶属度介于0.98~1.00和0.37~0.57时提取的主峰、主脉基本吻合算法提取的结果。研究采用一体化山地特征要素提取方法,实现了各山地要素间紧密联系、总体结构与区域地貌特征相对吻合的目标;完成了由栅格单元向地理对象的转变;可以应用于协助地貌类型划分,协同区域地理规划等。     

Active tectonics and erosional unloading at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau

Introduction The eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, adjacent to the Sichuan Basin (Figure 1), has become a testing ground for a variety of models that contrast mechanisms of extrusion and crustal thickening associated with the India-Asia collision (Avouac and Tapponnier 1993, England and Houseman 1986),but that also address the extent to which the upper crust and upper mantle are coupled (Royden et al. 1997, Holt 2000). The margin is characterized by topographic relief of over 5 km an…     

尼泊尔Ms8.1地震前我国西藏及周边区域的重力长期变化

根据1998~2013中国地壳运动观测网络、中国数字地震观测网络工程和中国大陆构造环境监测网络流动重力观测成果,给出了中国西藏及周边地区的重力年变率分布。结合青藏高原冰川消融和高原湖泊水位变化,估算了由陆地水储量变化引起的区域重力效应。基于50km平滑半径的高斯滤波,给出了测区内15a时间尺度的重力变化空间分布,并初步探讨了尼泊尔Ms8.1地震孕育的重力场长期背景趋势变化。结果表明:1)流动重力典型测点的时间序列表现出明显的线性变化特征,表明测点附近区域的长期重力变化以线性上升趋势为主,反映了区域重力逐年累积增加的背景效应;2)中国西藏及周边区域的重力长期变化在空间分布上具有显著的不均匀性和分区现象,这与青藏高原复杂的变形构造和动力学系统密切相关。喜马拉雅活动构造带在15a时间尺度上明显呈正重力变化趋势,可能与印度板块与欧亚板块存在的持续挤压变形引起的地下物质重新分布与调整有关,反映了大震孕育过程中地壳变形和介质变化引起的震区周围应力与能量的累积。