非线性相对运动下空间碎片碰撞概率计算的研究

空间目标碰撞概率的计算是航天器进行空间碎片预警和规避机动的基础.为了简化计算,目前国内外在计算碰撞概率问题过程中大多基于线性相对运动的条件,将三维碰撞概率计算积分问题简化为位置误差概率密度函数在圆域内的二维积分问题.但是当空间目标相对运动速度较小时,这种线性运动条件不再成立,就需要在真实的非线性相对运动状态下重新考虑碰...     

The distribution of microlensed light-curve derivatives: the relationship between stellar proper motions and transverse velocity

We present a method for computing the probability distribution of microlensed light-curve derivatives both in the case of a static lens with a transverse velocity, and in the case of microlensing that is produced through stellar proper motions. The distributions are closely related in form, and can be considered equivalent after appropriate scaling of the input transverse velocity. The comparison of the distributions in this manner provides a consistent way to consider the relative contribution to microlensing (both large and small fluctuations) of the two classes of motion, a problem that is otherwise an extremely expensive computational exercise. We find that the relative contribution of stellar proper motions to the microlensing rate is independent of the mass function assumed for the microlenses, but is a function of optical depth and shear. We find that stellar proper motions produce a higher overall microlensing rate than a transverse velocity of the same magnitude. This effect becomes more pronounced at higher optical depth. With the introduction of shear, the relative rates of microlensing become dependent on the direction of the transverse velocity. This may have important consequences in the case of quadruply lensed quasars such as Q2237+0305, where the alignment of the shear vector with the source trajectory varies between images.     

A method for calculating probability of collision between space objects

A method is developed to calculate probability of collision. Based on geometric features of space objects during the encounter, it is reasonable to separate the radial orbital motions from those in the cross section for most encounter events that occur in a near-circular orbit. Therefore, the probability of collision caused by differences in both altitude of the orbit in the radial direction and the probability of collision caused by differences in arrival time in the cross section are calculated. The net probability of collision is expressed as an explicit expression by multiplying the above two components. Numerical cases are applied to test this method by comparing the results with the general method. The results indicate that this method is valid for most encounter events that occur in near-circular orbits.     

Dynamics of Kepler problem with linear drag

We study the dynamics of Kepler problem with linear drag. We prove that motions with nonzero angular momentum have no collisions and travel from infinity to the singularity. In the process, the energy takes all real values and the angular velocity becomes unbounded. We also prove that there are two types of linear motions: capture–collision and ejection–collision. The behaviour of solutions at collisions is the same as in the conservative case. Proofs are obtained using the geometric theory of ordinary differential equations and two regularizations for the singularity of Kepler problem equation. The first, already considered in Diacu (Celest Mech Dyn Astron 75:1–15, 1999), is mainly used for the study of the linear motions. The second, the well known Levi-Civita transformation, allows to complete the study of the asymptotic values of the energy and to prove the existence of collision solutions with arbitrary energy.     

Method of ignoring the systematic variations of stellar parallaxes over the celestial sphere in a kinematic analysis of stellar proper motions

A method for determining the velocity field parameters free from the distortions due to the systematic variations of stellar parallaxes over the celestial sphere is proposed. The method is based on the approximation of parallaxes as a function of coordinates on the sphere using spherical harmonics and can be applied in those cases where the solar motion cannot be eliminated from the stellar proper motions. Numerical experiments have shown that our method is able to obtain accurate coordinates of the solar apex and to calculate the kinematic parameters of the Ogorodnikov-Milne model to within three coefficients of the decomposition of parallaxes into first-order spherical harmonics. Examples of applying the method to the stellar proper motions of the Hipparcos catalogue, which admits checking the results using trigonometric parallaxes, are provided. Such a check has been found to yield a positive result only for nearby stars at heliocentric distances that do not exceed 400 pc and for which the parallaxes were determined with a relative error of at least 30%. An interesting feature of this method is the possibility to construct the shape of the figure which is formed by the deviations of the parallaxes from the sphere corresponding to the average parallaxes of the stars under consideration. It should be specially emphasized that all of this is done in the complete absence of information about the stellar parallaxes. The “solar terms” of the stellar proper motions that are formed by the products of the parallaxes by the solar motion components relative to the centroid of stars are the main source of information about the parallaxes here.     

Dynamic status of the wide multiple system α Centauri + Proxima

We study the dynamics of a wide multiple system α Centauri + Proxima. The total energy of the system was estimated according to the available observational data on masses, coordinates, proper motions, and radial velocities of its components. To account for the effect of the observational data errors on the result, we have implemented the Monte Carlo method. From N = 10⁶ statistical tests we show that with the probability of about 90% the motion is hyperbolic, i.e., α Cen AB and Proxima will after a while diverge from each other by a considerable distance. We also perform numerical modeling of dynamic evolution of the wide pair α Cen AB + Proxima in the regular field of the Galaxy. The trajectory of relative motion is constructed. The components diverge from each other by a distance of 20 pc over the time scale of about 200 Myr. The critical parameter for determining the dynamic status of the system is the radial velocity of the C component (Proxima), known with an error of 200 ms^?1. For a reliable determination of the nature of motions in the system, we have to decrease the radial velocity error by at least an order of magnitude.     

N-Body Simulation of a Deeply Penetrating Collision Between Unequal Galaxies

We study the tidal effects of a deeply penetrating collision between two spherical galaxies, one twice massive but less dense than the other, by numerical simulations. We consider the relative motion of the galaxies to be initially in a hyperbolic orbit. The collision parameters are so chosen that the primary (bigger) galaxy is just below the limit of disruption and the relative velocity of the pair is slightly in excess of the escape limit and the primary suffer greater tidal damage than the secondary. The primary develops a core halo structure and shows over all expansion while the secondary while the secondary shows contraction in the inner region and less significant expansion in the outer parts. The initially hyperbolic orbit is transformed into a parabolic orbit as a result of the collision. The result also indicate that the tidal interaction does not induce appreciable rotation in hyperbolic collision. We calculate the angle of deflection of the orbit and compare it with that computed using analytical work. The numerical work shows larger angle of deflection which is attributed to the large tidal effects of the bigger galaxy in the interpenetrating collision. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Stability of the classical type of relative equilibria of a rigid body in the J 2 problem

The motion of a point mass in the J ₂ problem is generalized to that of a rigid body in a J ₂ gravity field. The linear and nonlinear stability of the classical type of relative equilibria of the rigid body, which have been obtained in our previous paper, are studied in the framework of geometric mechanics with the second-order gravitational potential. Non-canonical Hamiltonian structure of the problem, i.e., Poisson tensor, Casimir functions and equations of motion, are obtained through a Poisson reduction process by means of the symmetry of the problem. The linear system matrix at the relative equilibria is given through the multiplication of the Poisson tensor and Hessian matrix of the variational Lagrangian. Based on the characteristic equation of the linear system matrix, the conditions of linear stability of the relative equilibria are obtained. The conditions of nonlinear stability of the relative equilibria are derived with the energy-Casimir method through the projected Hessian matrix of the variational Lagrangian. With the stability conditions obtained, both the linear and nonlinear stability of the relative equilibria are investigated in details in a wide range of the parameters of the gravity field and the rigid body. We find that both the zonal harmonic J ₂ and the characteristic dimension of the rigid body have significant effects on the linear and nonlinear stability. Similar to the classical attitude stability in a central gravity field, the linear stability region is also consisted of two regions that are analogues of the Lagrange region and the DeBra-Delp region respectively. The nonlinear stability region is the subset of the linear stability region in the first quadrant that is the analogue of the Lagrange region. Our results are very useful for the studies on the motion of natural satellites in our solar system.     

Use of combined method for computing GEO SC corrections to minimize orbit eccentricity

The problem of transferring GEO SC to a specified standing point taking into account the SC insertion and correction error is considered. A combined method for calculating insertion corrections is suggested based on the algorithm for the optimal burn correction and numerical model for forecasting active SC COG motion, which yields a high calculation accuracy and allows one to minimize the orbit eccentricity at the end of the transferring phase. The method is software implemented and can be used to calculate transfer correction parameters during both the phase of GEO SC design and SC operation for their control.     

The stability of periodic orbits in the three-body problem

A method is developed to study the stability of periodic motions of the three-body problem in a rotating frame of reference, based on the notion of surface of section. The method is linear and involves the computation of a 4×4 variational matrix by integrating numerically the differential equations for time intervals of the order of a period. Several properties of this matrix are proved and also it is shown that for a symmetric periodic motion it can be computed by integrating for half the period only.This linear stability analysis is used to study the stability of a family of periodic motions of three bodies with equal masses, in a rotating frame of reference. This family represents motion such that two bodies revolve around each other and the third body revolves around this binary system in the same direction to a distance which varies along the members of the family. It was found that a large part of the family, corresponding to the case where the distance of the third body from the binary system is larger than the dimensions of the binary system, represents stable motion. The nonlinear effects to the linear stability analysis are studied by computing the intersections of several perturbed orbits with the surface of sectiony ₃=0. In some cases more than 1000 intersections are computed. These numerical results indicate that linear stability implies stability to all orders, and this is true for quite large perturbations.     

Quick numerical evaluation of the probability that an asteroid will collide with a planet

We propose a numerical method for quick evaluation of the probability that an asteroid will collide with a planet. The method is based on linear mappings of an expected moment of a close approach of the asteroid to the planet and the detection of collisions of the virtual objects with the massive body. The standard way for solving the problem of estimating the collision probability consists in simulating the evolution of the uncertainty cloud numerically based on the stepwise integration of virtual orbits. This is naturally associated with huge processor time costs. The proposed method is tested using the examples of the 2011 AG5 and 2007 VK184 asteroids that are presently in the top of the list of the most dangerous celestial objects. The test results show that linear mappings allow one to obtain the estimates of probabilities quicker by several orders than numerical integration of all virtual orbits.     

On Integrable Hamiltonians with Velocity Dependent Potentials

We study strongly and weakly integrable 2-dimensional Hamiltonian systems with velocity dependent potentials. We determine the set of conditions which must be satisfied in order to allow the existence of an independent second invariant polynomial in the momenta. We then investigate the linear case for which a complete solution of the problem can be obtained. We recover the classical set of linear strongly integrable systems and provide several new examples of weakly integrable systems whose equations of motion can be explicitly solved at a fixed value of the energy.     

Motions in a loop prominence

Motions of loop prominence knots have been studied on H-line filtergrams. By making use of contours of equal photographic density for entire cinegram it has been possible to significantly decrease the error in determining the locations of the knots. The method of mean velocities has been developed, which has permitted for the first time accurate determination of the laws of knot motion with sufficient accuracy. Two types of falling knots are distinguished: (1) those with a constant acceleration that is always below the gravitational acceleration, and (2) those with a constant velocity. The initial velocity of the falling knots is always different from zero. The gasdynamic theory has been developed to explain the deceleration of the two types of knots due to: the work done against the pressure force; pileup plasma raking; and shock-wave generation. The shock mechanism imparts a constant velocity to the motion. The temperature along the knot trajectories has been estimated. The ratio of the densities in the knots to the surrounding medium has been found.The aim of the present work is to gain new insight into the known observations of the motions in active prominences, in particular in the loop prominences, and to understand the reasons for the observed motions.A number of studies of prominence knot motions have been made using filter photographs (cinefilms). It seems to us, however, that the velocities (and especially acceleration) of individual knots have been determined within insufficient accuracy. It will be noted first of all that values of V(t) have been determined with a low accuracy by some authors even for high velocities (V 100 km s^–1). In fact, to achieve at least 10% accuracy in determining V by comparing two photographs obtained with a 30 s interval, it is necessary to measure the location of knots to 0.5 accuracy. The problem is the more complicated as the size of the knots can often reach 5 × 10. This is why the temporal dependence of the velocity of prominence knot motion is represented with a complicated curve.     

An extended canonical perturbation method

In this investigation, a procedure is described for extending the application of canonical perturbation theories, which have been applied previously to the study of conservative systems only, to the study of non-conservative dynamical systems. The extension is obtained by imbedding then-dimensional non-conservative motion in a 2n-dimensional space can always be specified in canonical form, and, consequently, the motion can be studied by direct application of any canonical perturbation method. The disadvantage of determining a solution to the 2n-dimensional problem instead of the originaln-dimensional problem is minimized if the canonical transformation theory is used to develop the perturbation solution. As examples to illustrate the application of the method, Duffing's equation, the equation for a linear oscillator with cubic damping and the van der Pol equation are solved using the Lie-Hori perturbation algorithm.This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research under Contract N00014-67-a-0126-0013.     

The large-scale velocity fields of the solar atmosphere

Magnetograph velocity data are studied for evidence of large-scale velocity fields. It is established that there exist on the surface of the sun regions of more or less coherent downward motion with dimensions of the order of a solar radius. Velocity amplitudes in these regions are in the range 50–75 m/sec. Downward-moving large-scale features are observed to live for at least several days in general and to rotate at least approximately with the solar rotation rate. Horizontal east-west motions appears to have lifetimes of at least many months. The extent in longitude of these horizontal features is about 25°. There is no evidence for meridional motions from these data, with an upper limit to the line-of-sight velocity of about 30 m/sec. Active regions, as reported previously, are areas of generally downward motion. Some features in the autocorrelation of the rotational velocity of the sun remain unexplained.     

Nonlinear theory of secular perturbations of satellites of an oblate planet

Anonlinear analytical theory of secular perturbations in the problem of the motion of a systemof small bodies around a major attractive center has been developed. Themutual perturbations of the satellites and the influence of the oblateness of the central body are taken into account in the model. In contrast to the classical Laplace-Lagrange theory based on linear equations for Lagrange elements, the third-degree terms in orbital eccentricities and inclinations are taken into account in the equations. The corresponding improvement of the solution turns out to be essential in studying the evolution of orbits over long time intervals. A program inC has been written to calculate the corrections to the fundamental frequencies of the solution and the third-degree secular perturbations in orbital eccentricities and inclinations. The proposed method has been applied to investigate the motion of the major Uranian satellites. Over time intervals longer than 100 years, allowance for the nonlinear terms in the equations is shown to give corrections to the coordinates of Miranda on the order of the orbital eccentricity, which is several thousand kilometers in linear measure. For other satellites, the effect of allowance for the nonlinear terms turns out to be smaller. Obviously, when a general analytical theory of motion for the major Uranian satellites is constructed, the nonlinear terms in the equations for the secular perturbations should be taken into account.     

The effects of integrals on the totality of solutions of dynamical systems

Regions of possible motions are established for dynamical systems possessing time-independent Hamiltonians or for systems which are reducible to that form by means of integrals of the motion using only extended point transformations. The method is applied to the problem of three bodies in a plane and surfaces of zero velocity are found. The governing parameters are the energy, angular momentum and the masses of the participating bodies. The analytical and geometrical properties of these surfaces provide qualitative results for given constants of the motion.     

Determination of membership of the open cluster M 67

Using the relative proper motions of 1,067 stars in the region of the open cluster M67, we calculated the membership probability for each star by a maximum liklihood method. 375 stars were found to have probabilities greater than 0.65 and these were taken to be members. A discriminating analysis gave 412 members. Some comparison with Sanders' (1976) calculation is made.     

On the collision probability for comets with the Sun

We consider the collision probability for comets with the Sun under the suppositions of different velocity distributions and various initial conditions. We solve the problem applying Laplace's method and using Schiaparelli's hyperboloid of visibility. The probabilities obtained in this manner are given separately for elliptic and hyperbolic orbits.