Study on Integrated Recurrence Behaviors of Strong Earthquakes Along Entire Active Fault Zones in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region, China

Based on historical earthquake data, we use statistical methods to study integrated recurrence behaviors of strong earthquakes along 7 selected active fault zones in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. The results show that recurrences of strong earthquakes in the 7 fault zones display near-random, random and clustering behaviors. The recurrence processes are never quasiperiodic, and are neither strength-time nor time-strength dependent. The more independent segments for strong earthquake rupturing a fault zone has, the more complicated the corresponding recurrence process is. And relatively active periods and quiescent periods for earthquake activity occur alternatively. Within the active periods, the distribution of recurrence time intervals between earthquakes has relatively large discretion, and can be modelled well by a Weibull distribution. The time distribution of the quiescent periods has relatively small discretion, and can be approximately described by some distributions as the normal. Both the durations of the active periods and the numbers of strong earthquakes within the active periods vary obviously cycle by cycle, leading to the relatively active periods having never repeated quasi-periodically. Therefore, the probabilistic assessment for middle- and longterm seismic hazard for entireties of active fault zones based on data of historical strong earthquakes on the fault zones still faces difficulty.     

The Principles and Methods of Division of Potential Seismic Regions for Moderately Strong Earthquakes in Northeast and North China

The uncertainty of potential seismic regions for moderately strong earthquakes has a great effect on the results of seismic hazard analysis in weak seismicity regions,so it is the basement of seismic zoning and seismic hazard assessment for engineering sites by correctly dividing the potential seismic regions for moderately strong earthquakes.By taking Northeast and North China as examples,the authors compiled and systematically analyzed a large amount of basic data and then suggest the principles and methods of potential seismic regions for moderately strong earthquakes based on a great number of case studies.The practical division of potential seismic regions in the Changchun and Jilin areas shows that these principles and methods show better suitability.Moreover,the authors also discuss in this paper the progress obtained and put forward some problems that should be solved in the future.     

Analysis of Geological Background of Seismic Activity in the Chengdu Plain from Data of Seismic Prospecting for Oil

Summarizing the existing data of seismological and geological investigations and of strong and intermediate-strong earthquakes in‘ the Sichuan basin and its adjacent areas accumulated by the seismological and petroleum organizations in Sichuan and of the results of seismic prospecting and detailed exploration in Chengdu depression during the last 20 years permitted us to studythe types and distribution of hidden structures in Chengdu depression and its adjacent areas, in particular, to identify in, detail the “hidden faults” in the Chenngdu-Deyang area on the one hand; The obtained data indicate that the NE-trending Xinjin fault ruus northward and dies out in the south of Penzhen town of Shuangliu County; Meanwhile, we studied genetic relations of seismic activity to active faults and their corresponding movernent charaeteristics on the other hand, Moreover, the Surface faults and deep-seated faults are clearly defined and outlined,and 5 types of seismogenic faults suggestd. The knowledge thus obtained enables us to delimit the focal zones for potential strong earthquakes in Chengdu depression. The study suggests that a zone of 40 km wide and more than 100 km long on sides along the Chengu Deyang lim bas a stable seismogeological background and good engineering-seismological conditions.     

Characteristics of Energy Accumulation and Release of Seismogenic Tectonics and Seismic Risk Analysis in Some Areas in the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang

Comparative analysis between the quantitative data of active faults and seismicity reveals that a complete earthquake recurrence cycle includes the characteristic earthquake and the submaxima earthquakes in-between. The magnitude of the sub-maxima events is correlated with the elapsed time of the characteristic earthquake and the slip rate of the fault. The fault displacement includes the major stick-slip generated by the characteristic earthquakes and the minor stick-slip by the sub-maxima ones. The magnitude-frequency relationship still works in the complete recurrence cycle. The energy accumulation in the cycle is divided approximately into four phases, and the seismicity differs at each phase. The relation of the maximum displacement with the average displacement of the characteristic earthquake suggests the partitioning of deformation between the characteristic and the sub-maxima earthquakes. Based on the above analysis, relevant mathematical equations are put forward for the quantitative assessment of the potential magnitude and earthquake risk of seismogenic tectonics. Tentative study has been carried out in this aspect in some areas of Tianshan.     

Effect of source parameters on forward-directivity velocity pulse for vertical strike slip fault in half space

It has been found that the large velocity pulse is one of the most important characteristics of near-fault strong ground motions. Some statistical relationships between pulse period and the moment magnitude for near-fault strong ground motions have been established by Somerville （1998）; Alavi and Krawinkler （2000）; and Mavroeidis and Papageorgiou （2003）, where no variety of rupture velocity, fault depth, and fault distance, etc. were considered. Since near-fault ground motions are significantly influenced by the rupture process and source parameters, the effects of some source parameters on the amplitude and the period ofa forward-directivity velocity pulse in a half space are analyzed by the finite difference method combined with the kinematic source model in this paper. The study shows that the rupture velocity, fault depth, position of the initial rupture point and distribution of asperities are the most important parameters to the velocity pulse. Generally, the pulse period decreases and the pulse amplitude increases as the rupture velocity increases for shallow crustal earthquakes. In a definite region besides the fault trace, the pulse period increases as the fault depth increases. For a uniform strike slip fault, rupture initiating from one end of a fault and propagating to the other always generates a higher pulse amplitude and longer pulse period than in other cases.     

Determination of Regions With Medium-Term Risk of Strong Earthquakes: Pre-warning Active Faults

To predict the area with frequent seismicity and the future risky region of strong earthquakes on the time scale of one or several years is a very important and urgent problem that needs to be solved.On the basis of active fault research,pre-warning active faults that have been active recently will be discussed; then the medium-term risky region of strong earthquakes will be delimited around the pre-warning active faults.This method proves to be effective.     

东昆仑活动带断裂库赛湖段破裂行为及影响因素的初步研究

On November 14, 2001, an extraordinarily large earthquake (MS8.1) occurred on the Hoh Sai Hu segment of the Eastern Kunlun Fault, in the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The seismogenic fault, the Hoh Sai Hu segment, is a left-lateral fault with a high slip rate in geological history, with the average slip rate reaching(14.8±2.8)mm/a since the late Pleistocene. Different slip rates of the Hoh Sai Hu segment can affect fault motion in the future. Therefore, this paper analyzes the effect of different slip rates and different initial friction coefficients on the fault plane of the Hoh Sai Hu segment of the eastern Kunlun Fault on the rupture behaviors of the fault. In this research, we apply the single degree of spring block model controlled by the rateand state-dependent frictional constitutive laws. Using the fault dislocation model and based on ancient earthquake research, historical earthquakes data and the achievements of previous researchers, we obtained the parameters of this model. Through numerical simulation of the rupturing motion of the Hoh Sai Hu segment in the next 6500 years under different slip rates, we find that a faster annual slip rate will shorten the recurrence interval of the earthquake. For example, the earthquake recurrence interval is 2100a at a slip rate of 0.014m/a, which agrees with previous research, but, the recurrence interval will be 1000~1500a and 2100～2500a, corresponding to the slip rates of 0.018m/a and 0.008m/a, respectively. The fault slip rate has no regular effect on the coseismic slip rate and fault displacement in an earthquake. The initial friction coefficient on the fault surface has an effect on the earthquake recurrence interval. A smaller initial friction coefficient will lengthen the earthquake recurrence interval. At the same time, the smaller initial friction coefficient will lead to larger slip rates and fault displacement when earthquakes occur.     

The Time-Space Features of Ms≥6.0 Earthquakes Subsequent to Ms≥7.0 Earthquakes in the Mainland of China

In this paper,the time-space features of Ms≥6.0 strong earthquakes that have occurred on the Chinese mainland since the beginning of this century were analyzed; the effect of Ms≥7.0 large shocks in mitigating Ms≥6.0 strong earthquakes subsequent to them vas studied both temporally and spatially; and the accumulative probabilities for the occurrence of Ms≥6.0 strong earthquakes subsequent to Ms≥7.0 large shocks were calculated.The results seem to imply that the effect of Ms≥7.0 large shocks in mitigating subsequent strong events is relatively obvious within certain time-space ranges.This is because the strain energy accumulated over a long time in the region around the source has been mostly released through the fracture produced by the large shock,the possibility for another large fracture to occur again in the same region within a certain period of time has been greatly reduced and therefore the probability for subsequent strong earthquakes to occur in that region is very low.These results can be     

Negative Dislocation Model and the Movement Pattern of a Fault:Determination of Potential Earthquake Sources in Western Yunnan

To determine the locked and slip parts on a fault,we simulated the movement pattern of the fault with a combined model consisting of a negative dislocation in the locked area superimposed on a relative movement between two sides of the fault.In this way,we determined the locked parts of faults by inversion with multiple epochs of geodetic data.In this paper,we have determined the movement patterns of four main faults in western Yunnan by inversion with two epochs of geodetic surveys and some crossing-fault observations.From the inversion result,we have identified the areas around Dali and Xiangyun to be the locked area,which is regarded as a sign of potential earthquake sources.     

Experiment on Hydraulic Fracturing in Rock and Induced Earthquake

Experiment on rock hydraulic fracturing strength under different confining pressures was conducted on a series of test specimens with various pre-cracks prepared from 7 types of rock, Combining the data of an actual reservoir-induced earthquake with the experimental results of the contemporary tectonic stress field according to the theory of rock strength and the principle and method of rock fracture mechanics, the authors tentatively investigated the earthquakes induced by pore-water pressure in rock and obtained the initial results as follows： （1） One type of induced earthquake may occur in the case of larger tectonic stress on such weak planes that strike in similar orientation of principle tectonic compressional stress in the shallows of the rock mass; the pore-water pressure σp may generate tensile fracture on them and induce small earthquakes; （2） Two types of induced earthquake may occur in the case of larger tectonic stress, i, e,, ①on such weakness planes that strike in similar orientation of principle tectonic compressional stress, σ1, in the shallows of the rockmass, the pore-water pressure, σp, may generate tensile fracture on them and induce small earthquakes; ②When the tectonic stress approximates the shear strength of the fracture, the pore-water pressure σp may reduce the normal stress, σn, on the fracture face causing failure of the originally stable fracture, producing gliding fracture and thus inducing an earthquake. σp may also increase the fracture depth, leading to an induced earthquake with the magnitude larger than the previous potential magnitude; （3） There is a depth limit for each type of rock mass, and no induced earthquake will occur beyond this limit.     

GPS在山区滑坡变形监测中的应用

山区滑坡的稳定性一直是倍受关注的一个重要安全问题。本文讨论了滑坡位移传统监测方法的缺陷和新型的基于GPS的自动监测技术所具有的独特优势,介绍了适用于山区公路滑坡位移监测的高精度的GPS技术。实践表明,采用GPS技术进行山区滑坡的稳定性监测,具有可操作性更强、精度更高、不受气候条件约束以及高度自动化等优点,能够为预测边坡可能出现失稳破坏的部位和变形破坏时间提供更可靠的监测资料,因而GPS监测技术值得在山区滑坡的变形监测领域中推广使用。     

HMT法探测花岗岩差异风化的应用研究

通常情况下花岗岩岩性稳定、岩石完整,是隧道工程的理想围岩.我国沿海地区花岗岩覆盖普遍,但因气候炎热,秋夏两季多台风暴雨,降雨量丰富,化学风化作用剧烈,使得花岗岩差异风化严重.风化作用不仅仅发生在近地表,而且深切入地下达数百米,常穿过隧道洞身.本文以新建厦门至深圳高速铁路(简称厦深高铁)某隧道工程勘察为例,采用探测深度大、工作方便的天然场源高频大地电磁测深法(HMT),探测花岗岩差异风化情况.四条相邻测线综合探测结果表明:根据HMT法二维反演剖面图中电阻率的差异,成功解释了已开挖段的施工塌陷范围,并预测了将要开挖段的强风化弱地质结构分布范围;通过垂向相对低阻异常特征定量推断了岩体风化带向下延伸情况,为隧道安全施工提供了科学指导.     

2019年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评

本文列出了2019年中国5.0级（含）以上地震目录,对中国大陆地震灾害情况和主要特点进行总结。结合有关省（自治区、直辖市）地震局的地震灾害评估报告和相关资料,分析主要震例的经济损失结果和灾害特点,并结合1998年以来中国大陆自然灾害与地震灾害统计数据,分析对比地震灾害致灾情况占全部自然灾害的比例变化特征。     

Nonlinearity in the response of soils in the 1995 Kobe earthquake in vertical components of records

Strong motion records provided by seismic vertical arrays allow estimation of stress–strain relations in soils at depths from the surface to the location of the deepest device. As an example, time-dependent nonlinear soil behavior was estimated in vertical components of records obtained in the epicentral area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Degradation of the rigidity of soils in the strong motion was observed. The constructed nonlinear models of the soil behavior were used for estimating the nonlinear parts in the ground response by the nonlinear system identification technique. Nonlinear parts in the ground response were found to be as high as 50% at 2 km from the fault and 10% at 6–15 km from the fault plane. Odd types of nonlinearity, such as cubic, the fifth, seventh, etc. order, were found to be typical for soils, whereas, nonlinearities of even types are usually weak, but increase in liquefied soils.     

2009年秋季武汉大东湖北湖水系水生植物调查

武汉大东湖北湖水系包括北湖、严西湖、严东湖、竹子湖、清潭湖.2009年秋季对北湖水系湖区水生植物调查结果表明,水生植物分布面积达3.89km2,占整个水域面积的14.8%,总现存量(鲜重)为17834.28t;现有水生植物49种,隶属于20科36属,苦草(Vallisneria spiralis)、穗花狐尾藻(Myri...     

2008年中国四川汶川大地震的地震断层

1 四川大地震概况 2008年5月12日西藏高原和四川盆地交界处发生大地震,从中国中部到西部的广阔地区遭到严重灾害.据中国政府发表的信息,到7月1日为止,已有69 195人死亡,18 404人下落不明,374 177人受伤,受灾总数达4 600万人.这次中国内陆发生的四川大地震,因震源在汶川而被正式命名为汶川地震.     

ADP在太湖沉积物再悬浮分析中的应用

分析太湖的悬浮物浓度时,使用传统的过滤与称重的方法,难以在短时间内取得大量的数据,并且进行大范围调查时困难较多,特别是在计算悬浮物浓度随时间的变化率时,根据导数的定义其时间间隔应足够小,此时上述方法显然难以得出较为准确的结果．本文从声学后散射原理出发,通过对声学多普勒三维流速仪(ADP)所接收的回声强度在传播距离上的校正,得出了当悬浮物粒径组成较为稳定时,该强度能反映水体中悬浮物浓度(SSC)的结论,并基于2002年在太湖乌龟山的一次为期一周的湖流观测结果,分析了经校正后的回声强度与太湖中悬浮物浓度间的指数相关关系,通过实测资料对上述关系进行了验证,结果表明该经验公式适用于太湖,其回声强度的变化能反映水体中SSC的变化规律,为大范围调查水体中悬浮物浓度提供了更加快速而有效的方法．     

三种变换在强震记录分析方面的研究

在简要地介绍比较了傅立叶变换、小波变换、希尔伯特-黄变换理论的基础上,针对集集地震大量强震记录进行各种变换分析比较,以探求希尔伯特-黄变换在强震记录分析中应用的前景.通过对集集地震60条不同震中距和场地的强震纪录,分别作傅立叶频谱、希尔伯特-黄边际谱和能量密度谱分析,列表归纳对比显示希尔伯特-黄变换在强震记录处理中基本表现出和其他变换相同的趋势,并有其新特点,能体现出强地震动的瞬时特性,是对现有强震数据处理方法重要的补充.     

我国地震的现今地球动力学研究的进展与方向

本文从活动构造、大陆地壳形变与现代地壳运动、地震活动区与大震震源区的深部探测及动力学、大陆强震区的地壳介质结构与地震成因、构造的物理及数值模拟、大陆岩石圈动力学以及地球动力学模型研究七个方面扼要介绍了近年来我国开展的与地震有关的现今地球动力学研究进展和取得的一系列新认识以及研究动向。在此基础上提出了微动态地球动力学，上地幔的非均匀性、深浅部构造关系及其动力学和地球动力学模型的理论研究三个应该优先发展的研究领域。     

Analysis of nonstationarity in low flow in the Loess Plateau of China

An approach for nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis is developed and demonstrated on a dataset from the rivers on the Loess Plateau of China. Nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis has drawn significant attention in recent years by establishing relationships between low‐flow series and explanatory variables series, but few studies have tested whether the time‐varying moments of low flow can be fully described by the time‐varying moments of the explanatory variables. In this research, the low‐flow distributions are analytically derived from the 2 basic explanatory variables—the recession duration and the recession coefficient—with the assumption that the recession duration and recession coefficient variables follow exponential and gamma distributions, respectively; the derived low‐flow distributions are applied to test whether the time‐varying moments of explanatory variables can explain the nonstationarities found in the low‐flow variable. The effects of ecosystem construction measures, that is, check dam, terrace, forest, and grassland, on the recession duration and recession coefficient are further discussed. Daily flow series from 11 hydrological stations from the Loess Plateau are used and processed with a moving average technique. Low‐flow data are extracted following the pit under threshold approach. Six of the 11 low‐flow series show significant nonstationarities at the 5% significance level, and the trend curves of the moments of low flow are in close agreement with the curves estimated from the derived distribution with time‐dependent moments of the recession duration and time‐constant moments of the recession coefficient. It is indicated that the nonstationarity in the low‐flow distribution results from the nonstationarity in the recession duration in all 6 cases, and the increase in the recession duration is resulted from large‐scale ecosystem constructions rather than climate change. The large‐scale ecosystem constructions are found to have more influence on the decrease in streamflow than on the increase in watershed storage, thus resulting in the reduction of low flow. A high return period for the initial fixed design value decreases dramatically with an increasing recession duration.