2012年桂西北一次暴雨漏报的原因分析

利用常规天气图和数值预报资料对2012年9月24日发生在广西西北部的一次大范围较强降水过程的成因和预报失误的原因进行了分析,结果表明:南支小槽的快速生成东移和持续的弱西南气流提供的深厚水汽条件以及弱冷空气补充导致静止锋两侧锋区能量的快速增加是造成这次强降水过程的主要原因.这次暴雨过程漏报的主要原因是天气形势配置不是很有利,对切变线的北抬分析不够深入.     

“5.8”桂东北暖区暴雨成因及漏报难点分析

利用常规天气图和数值预报资料,对2011年5月8发生在广西东北部的一次大范围较强降水过程的成因和预报失误的原因进行了分析,结果表明:高空波动和低空突然增强的南亚季风急流的共同作用,700～500hPa风切变引起的辐合上升以及干线入侵是造成这次强降水过程的主要原因。这次暴雨过程漏报的主要原因是:天气形势配置不是很有利,对中层干侵入的分析不够深入。     

贵州沿河县两次极端强降水的对比分析

利用常规天气资料、地面区域站、NCEP再分析资料和多普勒天气雷达资料对比分析了2016年6月19—20日特大暴雨和2019年6月22日大暴雨的天气形势、水汽条件、动力抬升条件以及雷达回波特征。分析发现:两次过程都属于典型的低涡切变型暴雨过程;"6·20"过程水汽通量强,辐合抬升高,维持时间长,是过程降水量大的主要原因;"6·22"过程水汽辐合强,垂直上升速度强,持续时间较短,是过程小时雨强大的主要原因;沿河西部的"列车效应"是这两次极端降水的关键原因;EC模式能够较好地预报出"6·20"过程中对流层中低层主要影响系统及其位置,随着预报时效的临近,预报的系统位置和移动与实况偏差减小。     

齐齐哈尔市3.10大风雪天气过程的雷达回波分析

针对2006年3月10日大风雪天气过程,结合天气环流背景和多普勒天气雷达回波资料,详细分析了该过程发生、发展及消亡的原因。分析表明:850hPa低压的形成与发展为该过程提供了充足的水汽和动力条件;回波的叠加,是降雪过程得以持续和发展的主要原因;径向速度场中,“牛眼”结构中心值的不对称性反映了流场辐合、辐散的特征,可以作为大风雪天气短时、临近预报的重要参考因素之一。     

广安一次局地大暴雨过程的中尺度特征分析

利用常规气象观测资料和加密地面自动站资料,分析了2020年6月17日广安市局地大暴雨过程的中尺度对流条件及形成原因。结果表明：此次暴雨过程发生在副高西北侧、槽前上下一致的西南气流里;充沛的水汽、暖平流与中高层南下冷空气的叠加影响、高不稳定能量等因素是造成此次对流性降水发展和维持的主要原因;而显著的增暖增湿过程使广安中东部对流条件好于周边地区,加上地形和地面风场的共同影响加强了触发抬升条件,导致出现局地大暴雨天气过程。     

广西东南部2008年6月持续强降水成因分析

通过对2008年6月桂东南持续性强降水分析研究,得出其天气过程特点和发生发展的原因.     

第0220号热带风暴"米克拉"造成三亚市特大暴雨的原因分析

对第0220号热带风暴"米克拉"造成三亚市特大暴雨降水过程的原因进行分析.分析表明,造成此次三亚市特大暴雨降水过程是由于500hPa环流形势(引导气流不明显)不利于"米克拉"向西、向北移动而在三亚近海停留时间过长和风暴南部有明显的热带云系流入以及地形影响这三方面原因共同作用的结果.     

第0220号热带风暴“米克拉”造成三亚市特大暴雨的原因分析

对第0220号热带风暴“米克拉”造成三亚市特大暴雨降水过程的原因进行分析。分析表明’造成此次三亚市特大暴雨降水过程是由于500hPa环流形势(引导气流不明显)不利于“米克拉”向西、向北移动而在三亚近海停留时间过长和风暴南部有明显的热带云系流人以及地形影响这三方面原因共同作用的结果。     

酉阳县"6·28"大暴雨过程分析

1999年6月25日到29日,酉阳连续5天出现大范围的大到暴雨和大暴雨天气过程.本文从500hPa形势、700hPa水汽输送情况等方面揭示了该次过程形成、发展和维持的原因.     

一次暴雪天气过程的分析

对一次暴雪天气过程的环流特征和产生原因进行了分析，并得出预报此类天气的几点结论。     

Anthropogenic, Climatic, and Hydrologic Trends in the Kosi Basin, Himalaya

A great debate exists concerning theinfluence of land-use and climatic changes onhydrology in the Himalayan region and its adjacentplains. As a representative basin of the Himalayas, westudied basinwide land-use, climatic and hydrologictrends over the Kosi Basin (54,000 km²) in themountainous area of the central Himalayan region. Theassessment of anthropogenic inputs showed that thepopulation of the basin grew at a compound rate ofabout one percent per annum during the past fourdecades. The comparison of land-use data between thesurveys made during the 1960s and 1978–1979 did notreveal noticeable trends in land-use change. Theanalysis of meteorological and hydrological timeseries from 1947 to 1993 showed some increasingtendency of temperature and precipitation. Thestatistical tests of hydrologic trends indicated anoverall decrease in discharge on the Kosi River andits major tributaries. The decreasing trends ofstreamflow were more significant during the low-flowmonths. The statistical analysis of homogeneityshowed that the climatic as well as the hydrologictrends were more localized in nature lacking adistinct basinwide significance.     

基于中心轴线的北太平洋冬季风暴轴分类及其机理研究

利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料研究了63年（1948～2010年）冬季北太平洋风暴轴的时空演变,提取风暴轴的中心轴线作为研究主体,以风暴轴的经向分布差异为重点,用模糊C均值聚类分析的方法将风暴轴分为平均型、偏北型和偏南型三类,并探讨了各类风暴轴对应的海气异常型及其物理机制。结果表明:（1）三类风暴轴分别显示了风暴轴经向差异的具体物理图像,对应着不同的涡旋移动发展路径,具有明确的天气学意义。通过EOF分解证明本文的分类反映了风暴轴的主要变化特征,物理意义清晰,具有一定的合理性和实用性。（2）三类风暴轴不仅经向差异明显,其北抬南压的纬向位置也存在显著差异,进一步表明该分类方法充分考虑了风暴轴空间分布的经向纬向差异,还揭示了风暴轴多中心的特点。（3）三类风暴轴对应的不同SST异常通过热力过程影响大气的温度场、风场和位势高度场,导致阿留申低压强度位置异常和水平风场异常,进而影响大气斜压性,决定风暴轴的空间分布,是形成不同类型风暴轴的重要原因。     

Climate change,the monsoon,and rice yield in India

Recent research indicates that monsoon rainfall became less frequent but more intense in India during the latter half of the Twentieth Century, thus increasing the risk of drought and flood damage to the country’s wet-season (kharif) rice crop. Our statistical analysis of state-level Indian data confirms that drought and extreme rainfall negatively affected rice yield (harvest per hectare) in predominantly rainfed areas during 1966–2002, with drought having a much greater impact than extreme rainfall. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we find that yield would have been 1.7% higher on average if monsoon characteristics, especially drought frequency, had not changed since 1960. Yield would have received an additional boost of nearly 4% if two other meteorological changes (warmer nights and lower rainfall at the end of the growing season) had not occurred. In combination, these changes would have increased cumulative harvest during 1966–2002 by an amount equivalent to about a fifth of the increase caused by improvements in farming technology. Climate change has evidently already negatively affected India’s hundreds of millions of rice producers and consumers.     

Climatology of Ozone, PAN, CO, and NMHC in the Free Troposphere Over the Southern North Atlantic

Free tropospheric measurements of ozone, peroxyacetylnitrate andprecursors (CO, NMHC) that were made within the framework of the EUROTRACsub-project TOR (Tropospheric Ozone Research) between 1990 and 1995 at theGAW station Izana, Tenerife (28°18N, 16°30W) arediscussed. The average annual cycles reveal the importance of transport fromnorthern mid-latitudes and the role of photo-chemistry. According toair-mass trajectories, which were supplied to us from AEROCE(Atmosphere/Ocean Chemistry Experiment), transport from northernmid-latitudes is associated with high precursor concentrations in winter,whereas ozone concentrations in winter are not much influenced by transportpatterns, suggesting a rather uniform distribution over the northern part ofthe Northern Hemisphere around mean value of 43 ± 5 ppb. In summer,high ozone concentrations of up to 90 ppb are often encountered duringtransport from north, while the levels of precursors are much lower than inwinter, because of photochemical destruction. Trajectories from southerlylatitudes and the Sahara usually have the lowest ozone concentrationsassociated with them.     

中国古诗词中的云雾雨雪

从云雾降水物理学的角度学习和分析了一些中国古诗词。内容有:1）分析和统计了唐诗300首和毛泽东诗词中用到云雾雨雪等字的百分比,其分别占总首数的45%和66%;2）列举和分析了描述自然过程、大气过程有云雨雪等字的诗(词)句;3）从现代科学观出发,分析了在一些古诗词中有关云、雨、霜、露等的理解,并作了一些评述;4）对古诗词中直接描述云、雾、雨、雪的内容进行了评论。       

Windstorm of the eighteenth century in the Czech Lands: course,extent, impacts

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This paper addresses the course, extent, and impacts of a windstorm that occurred on 20–21 December 1740, in the Czech Lands. The analysis is based on...     

Solar rotation,impulses of the torque in the Sun's motion,and climatic variation

Running variance analysis and maximum entropy spectral analysis applied to Mount Wilson rotation data yield arguments in favor of a connection between variations in the Sun's rotation rate, energetic X-ray flares, and impulses of the torque (IOT) in the Sun's irregular motion about the barycenter of the planetary system. Such IOT, that have been shown to be related to the secular cycle of solar activity and excursions of the Maunder minimum type, also seem to be linked to outstanding peaks in geomagnetic activity, maxima in ozone concentration, incidence of blocking type circulation, as well as rainfall over Central Europe, England/Wales, eastern United States, and India. Statistical tests, that confirm these links, additionally point to IOT connection with temperature in Central Europe and the number of icebergs that pass south of latitude 48° N. IOT relationship with X-ray flares and strong geomagnetic storms was tested in successful long range forecasts.Glossary of Abbreviated Terms A _c Equatorial angular sidereal solar rotation rate corrected for scattered light and averaged over respective Carrington rotations. - c-events See JU-CM-CSc. - CM Center of mass of the solar system. - CS Center of the Sun. - L Change of angular momentum L in the Sun's orbital motion about CM caused by an impulse of the torque (IOT). This change is measured by the time integral of the torque . - df Degrees of freedom. - g-events See JU-CM-CSg. - IOT Impulse of the torque in the Sun's irregular orbital motion about the center of mass of the solar system CM. The intensity of IOT is measured by the change in angular momentum L effected by the impulse. - JU-CM-CS Solar system constellation that is formed when the center of mass CM, the Sun's center CS and the giant planet Jupiter (JU) are in line. JU-CM-CS events initiate impulses of the torque IOT in the Sun's irregular revolution about CM. - JU-CM-CSc JU-CM-CS event that is accompanied with a sharp increase in orbital angular momentum and centrifugal motion of the Sun away from CM. - JU-CM-CSg JU-CM-CS event that goes along with a steep decrease in orbital angular momentum L and centripetal motion of the Sun toward CM due to prevailing gravitation. - L Angular momentum of the Sun's orbital motion around CM. - T Torque, the varying rotary force applied to the Sun in its orbital motion about CM that is equal to the time rate of change of the angular momentum L. - v Running variance: the smoothing technique of running means over two or more consecutive readings is applied to variance, the square of the standard deviation.     

Balance of water,heat, and solutes in the Dnieper-Bug estuary

The balance of water, heat, and solutes in the Dnieper-Bug estuary is estimated using the data of long-term observations (from 1965 to 2011) for solving the practical problems associated with the rational use of water resources in this area.     

Evidence of the terdiurnal,S 3, atmospheric tide in the surface wind field over the ocean

Surface winds were measured from anchored buoys at the corners of a 100-km triangle in the Atlantic ocean for three weeks in September 1972. The measurements were part of the British Royal Society Joint Air-Sea Interaction Project, JASIN-72. Peaks were found at a frequency of 0.125 cph (8-h period) in various wind statistics, indicating the presence of the terdiurnal, S ₃, component of the atmospheric tides that had previously been extensively studied because it is a prominent component in surface air-pressure records.