对于“Stuart Crampin对Jordan等‘可操作性地震预报:发展现状和使用手册[2011]’评论”的回复

在对国际地震预报委员会(ICEF)报告[1]的评论中,Crampin[2]声称剪切波分裂变化可以在短时间尺度上预测地震,并且可靠性高,技术性强.他对ICEF的一个重要发现提出挑战——到目前为止,没有任何方法具有如此高的预测能力.特别是,Crampin宣称,在意大利中部三孔应力监测站点(SMS)剪切波分裂观测可以监测SMS1000 km以内的所有破坏性地震(M≥5)前的应力积累和应力释放(裂缝贯通).     

扩容诱发偏振异常的观测和地震预报

地震预报计划的许多研究工作集中在期望未来震源区的岩石上能显示出扩容现象:即在高应力水平下裂隙的扩展.在裂隙介质中地震波传播理论的最近发展证明,在裂隙充满整个构造的情况下,地震波传播通过断裂构造时,剪切波将发生分裂.剪切波的这种分裂现象在地震图中引起了偏振异常.同时指出,通过分析这些异常可以识别和监测由震前应力诱发的扩容.在此,我们还介绍一些支持这种假设的新观测.     

探索精密可控震源实现地震预报之路

正我国大陆破坏性地震多发生在深度为5—25 km的地壳层,对于地壳层物理参数的动态监测是实现地震预报的一个行之有效的方法。通过建立观测量与地震层介质参数的关系,实现对地震层物理参数的动态监测是地震预报的一种根本办法。近代地震学很早就提出,通过监测由地壳内部应力积累引起的地震波速变化来预报地震。天然地震和人工震源是人类探测地下结构的主要手段。人工震源克服了天然地震的时空分布不均匀、重复性差、震源位置不确定、信号源弱等缺陷,已成为"照亮"地下介质并且是地     

关于推进我国地震预报进步的几点建议

本文立足于我国地震预报的实践及当前地震预报的科学水平,提出了推进我国地震预报进步的几点建议：①继续坚持并强化现行地震预报管理体制,不断改进经验性和统计预报的方法,努力作好震情监测预报工作,为防震减灾再做出一些有减灾实效的预报。②制订中国地震监测预报中长期科学发展规划,努力提高我国地震预报研究的科学水平。③探索地震动力(物理)预报的途径。④培养一流的地震预报科技人才,开展地震预报的国际合作研究。     

海城地震预报过程的回顾及地震预报发展的思考

通过1975年海城地震预报过程的回顾,结合国内外地震监测预报研究的进展,提出了发展我国地震预报研究的建议。     

地震预报的思索

对饱和流体微裂纹岩石形变方式的新认识表明,应力监测台网可以像气象台网进行天气预报和风暴预测那样进行地震预报。正如2002年8月,乔丹(Tom Jordan)在美国国家研究理事会地震科学委员会上就地震科学未来前景的意见会上所总结的那样,这种新认识被认为是比较大的进展。这种进展对     

各向异性与S波分裂及其在地震预报中的含意

近十年来世界在地震各向异性与S波分裂研究领域取得的长足进展,特别是英国科学家将S波分裂理论与观测实验技术逐步引向地震预报研究的努力,说明S波分裂作为体波在各向异性介质中传播的最显著特征,可望提供地震波穿过岩石内部结构最可靠的信息,而震前应力变化最直接的效应将会改变裂纹的几何图象。S波分裂研究是伴随通讯革命在地球物理学领域内发展起来的前沿学科,其形成的高技术反过来又可能产生重大经济效益,特别对石油、地热、煤炭、工程等部门更是如此。通过对国内外大量有关文献的分析、比较和筛选,对无序的情报信息作了有序的浓缩加工,本文将看重概述地震各向异性与S波分裂研究领域的发展历史、S波分裂机理及近期研究成果、S波分裂在地震预报研究中的应用、以及各向异性与S波分裂研究的前景,并给予相应评述。     

可操作的地震预报 认知状态与应用指南

2009年拉奎拉地震后,意大利民防署(DPC)任命了一个国际民防地震预报委员会(ICEF),其任务是就当前构造地震短期预测预报的认知水平提出报告并提出利用可能的大地震前兆启动民防措施的指导意见,包括大地震后地震灾险性概率分析结果的使用。国际地震预报委员会回顾了由世界范围地震活动区的进展获得的地震预测预报研究。预测(predic-tion)定义为确定性地表述未来地震是否将在一特定地理区域、时间窗和震级范围内发生,而预报(forecast)则是给出这样一个事件将要发生的概率(大于0但小于1)。对地震的可预测性,即可依据观测到的地震系统的表现确定未来地震发生的程度,人们知之甚少。这种认知的缺乏反映在不能在短时间尺度上可靠地预测地震活动地区的大地震。大多数已提出的预测方法依靠的是诊断性前兆,即在地震之前可观测到的某种以高概率说明即将来临地震的地点、时间和震级的信号的概念。本报告中评议的前兆方法包括应变率、地震波速和电导率的变化,地下水、土壤和空气中氡浓度的变化,地下水位的扰动,近地表及其上方的电磁变化,热异常,动物行为异常和地震活动性图像等。诊断性前兆的探索迄今尚未提出成功的短期预测方案。因此,本报告关注作为与收集和传播含时间的地震灾险性权威信息的原则性方法的可操作的地震预报,以帮助社会公众应对潜在的破坏性地震。在几天和几周的短时间尺度上地震序列显示出如大地震触发的余震空间和时间上的成丛性。成丛性的统计描述解释了地震目录中观察到的许多特征,并可用于形成预报,说明地震概率的短期变化。若能恰当加以应用,短期预报就具有可操作性,如预测大地震后的余震。尽管长期预报对于保障地震安全性的价值是明确的,但对短期预报的解释却令人困惑,由于地震概率变化可达几个量级,而典型的概率值在绝对意义上仍然很低(日概率小于1%)。把这种低概率的预报转换为有效的决策是一个艰难的挑战。报告收集了高地震危险性的6个国家(中国、希腊、意大利、日本、俄罗斯和美国)在地震风险管理中当前利用可操作预报的状况。长期模型是当前民众预防地震破坏最重要的预报手段,因为它们指导了建筑规范中的地震安全条款、基于性能的抗震设计和其他减轻风险的工程实践,如在翻修旧建筑中纠正设计缺陷等。余震的短期预报在上述一些国家中曾经实践过,但可操作的地震预报还没有在任何一个国家完全实施过(即定期更新并且在全国范围内实施)。根据在地震活跃区积累的经验,国际地震预报委员会向意大利民防署提供了一组在意大利使用可操作的预报的建议,这些建议对于其他国家可能也是有用的。应该向公众提供关于未来地震短期概率的权威的、科学的、一致的和及时的公开信息源。报告应以具有可操作性、定期更新的地震活动预报系统为基础,而且这些系统在地震信息的产生、发送和使用中都要经专家严格评审和更新。所有可操作模型的质量应当通过对其可靠性和有效性的回顾性检验加以评估,而且应对已建立的长期预报和其他含时间的模型进行持续的前瞻性检验。警报规程应当标准化以便于各级政府及民众做出决策。应当确定地震概率阈值以指导警报等级,而警报等级是以代价和收益,以及信息价值的无形方面,如心理准备与恢复方面效益的客观分析为基础。由社会科学研究确立的有效的公众交流原则应当被用于地震灾险信息的发送。     

剪切波分裂与地震预测

地震剪切波分裂（SWS）可用来监测饱和流体微裂纹岩石的细微形变。本文报告了由小地震记录到的剪切波分裂系统性变化的证据,通过监测震前的应力积累可预测即将发生的大震的时间和震级。通过对冰岛西南部的M1．7级震群事件到台湾Ms7．7级集集地震等15个震例（其中包括成功预测的冰岛西南部的M5．0地震）的剪切波分裂研究,可以看到预测效果。大地震发生前观测到剪切波分裂时间延迟会明显增加,而临震前短时间内时间延迟会突然下降。研究表明,震级与临震前这种时间延迟增加的持续时间和减小的持续时间的对数都具有线性相关。然而,作为日常应力预测常缺乏适当的持续小震群。可靠的地震预测需要应力监测站（简称SMS）中采用毗邻钻孔中的可控源井间地震技术。利用应力监测站的全球网络实时应力预测世界范围破坏性地震是非常可能的。     

用Pg波初动求解中小地震的震源参数

依据震源理论,根据我国数字化地震台网目前的实际情况,在前人研究成果的基础上,提出一种用Pg波初动求中小地震震源参数的实用方法.可以用三个台的Pg波初动(初动峰值和峰值时间),较简便地计算出地震的震源参数, 从而为以震源和介质动态变化为依据的地震预报,提供一个用于日常监测预报的方法.     

Discussion on Earthquake Forecasting and Early Warning

Through analysis of natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting, the relationship between the natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting （early warning） has been discussed. Regarding the natural attributes of earthquake forecasting, it only attempts to forecast the magnitude, location and occurrence time of future earthquake based on the analysis of observational data and relevant theories and taking into consideration the present understanding of seismogeny and earthquake generation. It need not consider the consequences an earthquake forecast involves, and its purpose is to check out the level of scientific understanding of earthquakes. In respect of the social aspect of earthquake forecasting, people also focus on the consequence that the forecasting involves, in addition to its natural aspect, such as the uncertainty of earthquake prediction itself, the impact of earthquake prediction, and the earthquake resistant capability of structures （buildings）, lifeline works, etc. In a word, it highlights the risk of earthquake forecasting and tries to mitigate the earthquake hazard as much as possible. In this paper, the authors also discuss the scientific and social challenges faced in earthquake prediction and analyze preliminarily the meanings and content of earthquake early warning.     

利用系统工程促进地震预报工作的快速发展

地震一直是影响人类生存的天灾,尤其是大的地震。30年前的唐山大地震记忆犹新,2008年的汶川特大地震更是震惊中外,其损失之大、牺牲之惨烈、可歌可泣的事迹让我们流泪、让我们感动、终身难忘。痛定思痛,我们一定要切实加强地震预报工作。由于地震预报工作涉及的学科很多,涉及的面又相当广,例如,这次电磁会议上所报告的,在地震前是有一些预兆的,它是个复杂系统,需要有系统的思想,并可以利用系统工程。     

Test of the EEPAS Forecasting Model on the Japan Earthquake Catalogue

The EEPAS (Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale) model is a method of forecasting earthquakes based on the notion that the precursory scale increase () phenomenon occurs at all scales in the seismogenic process. The rate density of future earthquake occurrence is computed directly from past earthquakes in the catalogue. The EEPAS model has previously been fitted to the New Zealand earthquake catalogue and successfully tested on the California catalogue.Here we describe a further test of the EEPAS model in the Japan region spanning 1965–2001, initially on earthquakes with magnitudes exceeding the threshold value 6.75. A baseline model and the Gutenberg-Richter b-value were fitted to the JMA catalogue over the learning period 1926–1964. The performance of EEPAS, with the key parameters unchanged from the New Zealand values, was compared with that of the baseline model over the testing period, using a likelihood ratio criterion. The EEPAS model proved superior. A sensitivity analysis shows that this result is not sensitive to the choice of the learning period or b-value, but that the advantage of EEPAS over the baseline model diminishes as the magnitude threshold is lowered. When key model parameters are optimised for the Japan catalogue, the advantage of EEPAS over the baseline model is consistent for all magnitudes above 6.25, although less than in the New Zealand and California regions.These results add strength to the proposition that the EEPAS model is effective at a variety of scales and in a variety of seismically active regions.     

Earthquake Forecasting Using Hidden Markov Models

This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock within 1, 5, and 10 days in the entire study region or in specific subregions and are based on the observations available at the forecast time, namely the interevent times and locations of the previous mainshocks and the elapsed time since the most recent one. Hidden Markov models have been applied to many problems, including earthquake classification; this is the first application to earthquake forecasting.     

北部湾6级地震前区域地震活动过程及预测启迪

对北部湾6级地震前后雷琼地区的地震活动阶段及过程进行了研究，介绍了由此所得到的区域地震预测思路的启迪，为非理想条件下依据地震孕育发展过程探索分析预报程序提供借鉴。     

IASPEI 2009关于地震预报问题讨论概述

IASPEI2009（国际地震学与地球内部物理学联合会）大会于2009年1月10日至16日于南非的开普敦市举行,现将会议上关于地震预报的进展汇总如下,供大家参考。     

Long-range Earthquake Forecasting with Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale

Scaling relations previously derived from examples of the precursory scale increase before major earthquakes show that the precursor is a long-term predictor of the time, magnitude, and location of the major earthquake. These relations are here taken as the basis of a stochastic forecasting model in which every earthquake is regarded as a precursor. The problem of identifying those earthquakes that are actually precursory is thus set aside, at the cost of limiting the strength of the resulting forecast. The contribution of an individual earthquake to the future distribution of hazard in time, magnitude and location is on a scale determined, through the scaling relations, by its magnitude. Provision is made for a contribution to be affected by other earthquakes close in time and location, e.g., an aftershock may be given low weight. Using the New Zealand catalogue, the model has been fitted to the forecasting of shallow earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5.75 over the period 1965–2000. It fits the data much better than a baseline Poisson model with a location distribution based on proximity to the epicenters of past earthquakes. Further, the model has been applied, with unchanged parameters, to the California region over the period 1975–2001. There also, it performs much better than the baseline model fitted to the same region over the period 1951–1974; the likelihood ratio is 10¹⁵ in favor of the present model. These results lend credence to the precursory scale increase phenomenon, and show that the scaling relations are pervasive in earthquake catalogues. The forecasting model provides a new baseline model against which future refinements, and other proposed models, can be tested. It may also prove to be useful in practice. Its applicability to other regions has still to be established.     

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe

We present a simple method for long- and short-term earthquake forecasting (estimating earthquake rate per unit area, time, and magnitude). For illustration we apply the method to the Pacific plate boundary region and the Mediterranean area surrounding Italy and Greece. Our ultimate goal is to develop forecasting and testing methods to validate or falsify common assumptions regarding earthquake potential. Our immediate purpose is to extend the forecasts we made starting in 1999 for the northwest and southwest Pacific to include somewhat smaller earthquakes and then adapt the methods to apply in other areas. The previous forecasts used the CMT earthquake catalog to forecast magnitude 5.8 and larger earthquakes. Like our previous forecasts, the new ones here are based on smoothed maps of past seismicity and assume spatial clustering. Our short-term forecasts also assume temporal clustering. An important adaptation in the new forecasts is to abandon the use of tensor focal mechanisms. This permits use of earthquake catalogs that reliably report many smaller quakes with no such mechanism estimates. The result is that we can forecast earthquakes at higher spatial resolution and down to a magnitude threshold of 4.7. The new forecasts can be tested far more quickly because smaller events are considerably more frequent. Also, our previous method used the focal mechanisms of past earthquakes to estimate the preferred directions of earthquake clustering, however the method made assumptions that generally hold in subduction zones only. The new approach escapes those assumptions. In the northwest Pacific the new method gives estimated earthquake rate density very similar to that of the previous forecast.     

读《地震地下流体学》的初浅体会

中国地震局地质研究所资深专家、中国地震局地下流体学科组顾问车用太研究员与鱼金子、王基华、刘五洲、孙君秀、林元武等合作编著的《地震地下流体学》,在地震科