STARTER: a statistical GIS-based model for the prediction of snow avalanche susceptibility using terrain features—application to Alta Val Badia, Italian Dolomites

This article describes a methodology to localise areas with high potential towards natural snowpack instability under particular meteorological conditions, at the scale of an Alpine valley. Localisation is based on statistically relating known release areas of past avalanche events to maps of: (1) slope inclination, (2) slope orientation (aspect), (3) elevation, (4) distance from crest lines, (5) terrain roughness and (6) concavities/convexities. The maps have been built using two different GIS softwares while the statistical analyses have been performed with a specific software handling also Fuzzy Set theory algorithms. The results of the statistical analyses have been verified on test release—areas which have not been used as input data for the statistical analyses. Verification allowed to quantify how reliably the susceptibility values were calculated, to compare the values obtained using different combinations of terrain features and to finally decide on the most efficient combination. The susceptibility maps were calculated and verified for three different meteorological scenarios (given by three classes of snow depth). Verification has shown that the accuracy of the susceptibility maps was between 67% and 82%. The three susceptibility maps show a remarkable difference in the spatial pattern of the highest susceptibility pixels suggesting that for different meteorological scenarios different classes of terrain features need to be considered.The possibility to make combinations of terrain features and to assess and verify their statistical relationship with release areas of past avalanche events is the major original step made by STARTER. Linking those release areas to meteorological scenarios is an attempt to include in the analysis the combined influence of terrain features and meteorological conditions towards snowpack instability.     

Topographical relief characteristics and its impact on population and economy: A case study of the mountainous area in western Henan,China

Topographical relief is a key factor that limits population distribution and economic development in mountainous areas. The limitation is especially apparent in the mountain-plain transition zone. Taking the transition zone between the Qinling Mountains and the North China Plain (i.e. the mountainous area in western Henan Province) as an example and based on the 200-m resolution DEM data, we used the mean change-point analysis to determine the optimal statistical unit for topographical relief, and thereafter extracted the relief degree. Taking the 1:100,000 land use data, township population and county-level industrial data, population and economic spatial models were constructed, and 200-m resolution grid population and economic density maps were generated. Afterwards, statistical analysis was carried out to quantitatively reveal the impact of topographical relief on population and economy. In addition, the impacts of other topographical factors were discussed. The results showed the following. (1) The relief degree in western Henan is generally low, where 58.6% of the regional topography does not exceed half the height of a reference mountain (relative elevation ≤250 m). Spatially, the relief degree is high in the west while low in the east, and high in the middle while low in the north and south. There is a positive correlation between relief degree and elevation, and a much stronger correlation between relief degree and slope. (2) The linear fitting degree between the population and economic validation data and the corresponding simulation data are 0.943 and 0.909, respectively, indicating that the spatialized results can reflect the actual population and economic distribution. (3) The impact of topographical relief on population and economy was stronger than that of other topographical factors. The relief degree showed a good logarithmic fit relationship with population density (0.911) and economic density (0.874). Specifically, 88.65% of the population lives in areas where the topographical relief is ≤0.5 and 88.03% of the gross regional product was from areas where the relief is ≤0.3. Compared with the population distribution, the economic development showed an obvious agglomeration trend towards low relief areas.     

基于生态适宜性评价的西南丘陵区土地整治工程布局研究

如何科学合理地识别土地整治工程的生态适宜性,是评判当前土地整治工程是否实现“有利生产,方便生活,兼顾生态”目标的重要依据,更是土地整治理论与规划亟待解决的重要命题。选取川东平行岭谷区的垫江县为研究区,立足146个土地整治项目,借助生态位思想进行土地整治工程生态适宜性评价,计算土地生态整治工程布局潜力指数,对土地整治工程生态化布局进行定向。结果表明：① 土地整治工程生态适宜性指标影响显示出显著异质性,其中耕地连片度、坡度、灌溉保证率是开展土地整治工程生态适宜性评价的首选因素。② 土地整治项目中单项工程的生态适宜性水平差异较大,其中土地平整和灌排系统的生态适宜性低于临界水平,田间道路和生态景观工程的生态适宜性高于临界水平。③ 土地整治项目整体工程的生态适宜性程度差异显著,各项目土地整治工程生态适宜性均值为0.72,处于生态适性的临界水平。适宜等涉及土地整治面积7434 hm²,占9%。临界适宜等涉及土地整治面积54530 hm²,占67%。不适宜等涉及土地整治面积18845 hm²,占24%。④ 研究区土地整治工程生态适宜性布局整体呈多样化格局,Ⅰ等潜力区主要位于研究区中西部,布局方向为发展多功能农业,应注意如何保证其经济价值实现的同时不损害其生态价值。Ⅱ等潜力区分布范围较广,布局方向为发展大宗粮油产业,应思考在保证其粮食生产的同时尽量避免对农田生态系统的破坏。Ⅲ等潜力区主要位于鹤大台地区,布局方向为发展生态立体农业,应强调如何在保证生态环境不受破坏的前提下发展具有山区特色的生态农业。     

NONPARAMETRIC FACTOR ANALYSIS IN URBAN GEOGRAPHY: METHOD AND VALIDATION

The present paper demonstrates that Kelly's (1955) method of hand factor analyzing the data matrices derived from repertory grids can be employed as a general method of multivariate analysis in geography. This brings the advantages of a non-parametric and noncomputer dependent approach to areas such as factorial ecology, classifications of towns and cities, and urban behavioral analyses, where multivariate techniques have customarily been employed. The method is initially explained by recourse to a simple hypothetical urban retailing data set. Subsequently, more complex real world examples involving multivariate analyses of housing data for Barbados, West Indies, and urban consumers' cognitions of a single store are presented. It is shown that the nonparametric method gives results that are virtually identical to those obtained from traditional computer-based factor analyses. Throughout the paper, the pedagogic and practical virtues of the nonparametric method are considered.     

天山北坡经济带“组团”点轴城镇空间结构研究

以1990-2007年天山北坡城镇GDP、土地、人口、交通数据为资料,根据城镇空间分布“最近邻点指数”理论,空间相互作用和分形理论,分析了天山北坡城镇空间分布特征,构建了绿洲城镇相互作用强度判断模型,提出并论证了“组团”点-轴空间结构模式优越性。研究发现:①天山北坡经济带城镇人口规模和经济规模在空间结构呈现3个城镇高密集区,两个城镇稀疏区特征;②传统绿洲城镇空间结构下,城镇接受中心城市辐射差异很大,不利于城镇整体发展;③以“乌鲁木齐都市圈”为点的“组团”点-轴空间结构模式,有利于中心组团城镇对其他城镇的辐射;④以“５组团”为点的点-轴模式有利于组团之间的相互作用,有利于城镇发展;⑤天山北坡经济带向伊犁河谷延伸有利于中心组团城镇对其他组团城镇的辐射。     

DEM-based morphometry of range-front escarpments in Attica, central Greece, and its relation to fault slip rates

In this paper, we apply current geological knowledge on faulting processes to digital processing of Digital Elevation Models (DEM) in order to pinpoint locations of active faults. The analysis is based on semiautomatic interpretation of 20- and 60-m DEM and their products (slope, shaded relief). In Northern–Eastern Attica, five normal fault segments were recognized on the 20-m DEM. All faults strike WNW–ESE. The faults are from west to east: Thriassion (THFS), Fili (FIFS), Afidnai (AFFS), Avlon (AVFS), and Pendeli (PEFS) and range in length from 10 to 20 km. All of them show geomorphic evidence for recent activity such as prominent range-front escarpments, V-shaped valleys, triangular facets, and tilted footwall areas. However, escarpment morphometry and footwall geometry reveal systematic differences between the “external” segments (PEFS, THFS, and AVFS) and the “internal” segments (AFFS and FIFS), which may be due to mechanical interaction among segments and/or preexisting topography. In addition, transects across all five escarpments show mean scarp slope angles of 22.1°±0.7° for both carbonate and metamorphic bedrock. The slope angle equation for the external segments shows asymptotic behaviour with increasing height. We make an empirical suggestion that slope angle is a function of the long-term fault slip rate which ranges between 0.13 and 0.3 mm/yr. The identified faults may rupture up to magnitude 6.4–6.6 earthquakes. The analysis of the 60-m DEM shows a difference in fault patterns between Western and Northern Attica, which is related to crustal rheology variations.     

Utilization of a multicriteria least cost path model in an aquatic environment

A critical component of maintaining biodiversity in fragmented habitats is maintaining connectivity among the usable fragments. Least cost path (LCP) analysis is a tool that can be used for predicting the ability of an organism to move from one habitat patch to another, based on geographical features of the landscape and life history traits of the organism. While this analysis has been utilized for terrestrial habitats, it is rarely applied to aquatic environments. Aquatic hypoxic conditions occur when dissolved oxygen falls below 2 mg/L. These conditions can create barriers in the water column that can either force fish to leave a habitat, or avoid that habitat altogether. Using the lower St. Johns River (LSJR) estuary in Florida, USA, as a study system, the ability of an adult silver perch, Bairdiella chrysoura, to escape a large-scale hypoxic event was modeled using a multicriteria LCP approach. Criteria-specific cost grids were constructed based upon current speed, risk of predation, and whether oxygen levels in the habitat area were normoxic (>5.5 mg/L), or hypoxic (<2.0–1.5 mg/L) as a function of water depth for the LSJR. The criteria cost grids were combined using relative weighting to produce the multicriteria cost grid used to implement the LCP analysis. Three origin and destination point locations within the LSJR study area were selected for modeling whether or not a silver perch would be able to escape a hypoxic zone. Since the LCP model will always determine a LCP from the specified origin point location, ecologically relevant swimming capacities for silver perch under normoxic and hypoxic conditions were then applied to assess the model, and to determine whether the fish would be able to reach areas unimpacted by hypoxia. The LCP model and the swimming capacity results for this study predict that under normoxic conditions, fish movement was unimpeded. During the rapidly developing hypoxic event that was modeled, the results from the LCP model indicate that the fish could move outside the hypoxic zone, but when swimming capacities were applied to the model, the silver perch could not escape. Ecologically, the results of this study suggest that silver perch would experience high mortality under a rapidly developing hypoxic event. Additionally, the results of this study indicate that a LCP model can be applied to an aquatic habitat, as long as the cost grids incorporate relevant abiotic and biotic factors.     

长春市各级交通路线对城市功能用地变化的作用效应关系研究

利用长春市中心城区2003年、2013年土地利用现状图,运用廊道效应原理与ArcGIS空间分析功能,揭示了交通系统“快速化”背景下长春市各级交通路线对城市功能用地演替的作用效应关系。研究发现：轻轨、主干路、快速路对商服用地的吸聚效应依次增强,快速路沿线商服用地主要用于专业化市场建设,轻轨沿线商服用地用作综合性商场开发;快速路对沿线居住用地吸聚强度大于主干路,轻轨对沿线居住用地具有近距离排斥效应;在市中心区,快速路、主干路、轻轨对工业用地的排斥强度依次增强,但随着由中心至外围的过渡,快速路的排斥效应将转化为吸聚效应。各级交通路线对沿线城市功能用地作用效应的差异性,一定程度上推动了长春市城市地域结构的演变。     

山区县域聚落演化的空间分异特征及其影响因素——以豫西山地嵩县为例

综合运用GIS空间分析、地形起伏度和地形位指数等方法,分析了1975-2015年嵩县聚落演化的空间分异特征,进而运用因子分析、地理探测器和多元回归分析方法研究了影响因素及其变化。得出：① 40年间嵩县聚落数量减少了将近四分之一,而聚落总规模增加1.28倍,其数量减少量以1975-1995年阶段居多,规模扩张程度以1995-2015年阶段更为显著。② 受山区地形限制聚落在空间上多沿道路和河流呈条带状分布,沿县城和乡镇中心呈团状分布,且随时间变化具有很强的路径依赖性;聚落空间分布呈现明显的低地、小地形起伏、平缓坡度和小地形位指向性,且随时间趋于向丘陵、平起伏和微起伏、坡度<6°、地形位指数<0.4地区布局;此外,聚落区位的南坡指向性和聚落规模空间分布的南坡、东南坡和西南坡指向性趋于加强。③ 聚落区位主要受地形、生产条件以及道路、乡镇中心、县城中心和工矿企业的辐射影响,但随时间变化,地形影响在减弱,而道路和乡镇中心的辐射影响在增强。④ 聚落规模空间分布受自然、社会和经济等方面因子的解释作用均较为显著并随时间有所变化,其中,地形的影响相对较大,社会经济因子中乡镇和县城中心的影响次之;但随城镇化进程的不断加快,县城中心的影响逐渐增强,而乡镇中心和地形的影响逐渐减弱。基于以上研究为山区聚落未来选址及规划布局提出几点建议。     

Route planning and cost analysis for travelling through the Arctic Northeast Passage using public 3D GIS

To plan undeveloped optimal routes between Asia and Europe via the Arctic Northeast Passages using a 3D geographic information system (GIS), voyage paths are simulated in a 3D visual form. This ensures that the distances are calculated accurately, and that other voyage data such as water depths, sea ice distribution, and seashore topology are also easily deciphered, giving a more direct and clear demonstration compared to simplified presentations on an Electronic Chart Display & Information System (ECDIS). This article also implements a higher-geometry maze router in ice zone areas to obtain the optimal path in relation to safety and costs. This article compares the optimal Arctic Northeast Passages with traditional routes through the Suez Canal for dynamic analyses of the cost efficiency (including time costs, fuel costs, and other factors) of travel between major ports in Asia and Europe. The average benefit assessment is around 30–45% in a bulk carrier comparison. Thus, a 3D GIS can easily obtain and demonstrate safe navigation routes, providing a very convenient tool for initial planning.     

Drowned shelf-edge deltas, barrier islands and related features along the outer continental shelf north of the head of De Soto Canyon, NE Gulf of Mexico

Four drowned shelf-edge delta complexes, two drowned shelf deltas, three drowned barrier islands, large areas of “hardground”, and fields of bedforms on the mid and outer continental shelf and uppermost slope north of the head of De Soto Canyon, NE Gulf of Mexico were mapped with high-resolution multibeam echosounder. Deltas formed not during the last eustatic low stand, but during one or more interstadials when eustatic sea levels were only 60 to 80 m below present sea level. The barrier islands and deltas must have been cemented prior to rapid falls of eustatic sea level that occurred during global glaciations. Cementation is necessary to have preserved the barrier islands from erosion and subsequent destruction by the rapid sea-level rise during the last deglaciation. The preservation of the relict bathymetry is so good that features that superficially resemble trough blowouts are found in association with one of the relict barrier islands. Asymmetric bedforms on the midshelf in water depths of 50 to 60 m indicate transport directions to the SW but asymmetric bedforms in water depths of the upper slope between 100 and 120 m on the S and SE flanks of the drowned shelf-edge deltas indicate a different current direction, a separate flow that is a continuation of a SW-flowing current that was previously found on the upper slope off NW Florida.     

GENTRIFICATION AND LAND RENT: A HISTORICAL VIEW OF THE RENT GAP IN MINNEAPOLIS

The rent gap theory has been a prominent explanation of gentrification for nearly two decades. It has been subject to much critique, but few empirical analyses. This research, based in Minneapolis, attempts an empirical evaluation of the hypothesis using land price data in nine redeveloped parcels over a span of 130 years. While the rent gap appears to exist in most parcels, a simple one-to-one correspondence between the gap and gentrification cannot be made because of the nature of the theory and the limitations of the data. There is evidence, however, that rent gaps may form not just in declining areas, but in stable poorer areas when there is substantial capital investment on the urban fringe. This finding lends support to the theory's emphasis on the role of uneven development in the creation and eventual closure of the rent gap.     

Drainage density, slope angle, and relative basin position in Japanese bare lands from high-resolution DEMs

Relationships between drainage density and slope angle for three bare lands in Japan were analyzed with special attention to channels at early erosion stages and channels in a badland-type terrain. Two of the bare lands were caused by volcanic eruptions 1 or 30–40 years ago, and the other one is a landslide scar formed more than 100 years ago. Raster digital elevation models (DEMs) with a 1-m resolution and ortho aerial photos were generated using digital photogrammetry to enable detailed stream-net extraction and topographic analyses. Data for drainage density, slope angle, and relative height for 88 subwatersheds were obtained from the DEMs and derived stream-nets. The relationship between drainage density and slope angle for each subwatershed can be divided into two types: downward sloping and convex upward. Although previous studies suggested that drainage density positively correlates with slope angle if overland flow is dominant, this correlation seldom occurs in the study areas. The two types of drainage density–slope angle relationships correspond to differing channelization stages that reflect the extension and integration of existing channels, as well as the formation of new low-order streams in response to base-level lowering. The location of subwatersheds within each study area seems to play a major role in determining the stages of channel development and, in turn, the types of drainage density–slope angle relationships.     

SETTLEMENT,POPULATION AND LAND USE ANALYSES OF THE NORTH CHINA PLAIN USING SHUTTLE IMAGING RADAR-A DATA*

Shuttle Imaging Radar-A data are employed to study the settlement, population and land use in the Baoding and Dezhou areas of the North China Plain. By applying nearest neighbor and quadrat analyses, the settlements are found to exhibit a mixed random-clustering pattern which defied the application of Christaller's central place theory. The distinctly visible boundaries from the images permitted accurate estimation of population in both areas. The linear land use forms, notably transportation lines, could also be accurately mapped; the Chinese practice of lake reclamation was also revealed. It is concluded that SIR-A data are useful for much human geography research.     

POVERTY-AREA INSTABILITY: THE CASE OF CHICAGO

Recent studies have shown that (officially designated) poverty areas in large American cities have expanded geographically each decade since their inception in 1960. The territorial expansion of poverty areas in the 1970s was especially severe in Chicago, where new poverty-area growth exceeded the geographic extent of preexisting poverty areas. In the more recent decade of the 1980s, the expansion of Chicago's poverty areas slowed significantly. An analysis ofthis expansion process for Chicago, using 1970, 1980, and 1990 census data, illustrates that the movement of neighborhoods into and out of poverty is related to their previous poverty level, relative location, and rate of population loss. The recent slowdown in the geographic expansion of Chicago's poverty areas is highly correlated with the declining city-wide rate of population loss. Irrespective of this slowdown in territorial expansion, the residential function of Chicago's poverty areas is becoming increasingly obsolete as fewer and fewer people are residing in them.     

DEM提取黄土高原地面坡度的不确定性

选择陕北黄土高原6个典型地貌类型区为试验样区,采用野外实测及高精度的1:1万比例尺DEM为基准数据,研究栅格分辨率及地形粗糙度对DEM所提取地面平均坡度精度的影响。结果显示,对于1:1万比例尺DEM,5 m是保证该地区地形描述精度的理想分辨率尺度;多要素逐步回归模拟的方法进一步揭示了DEM所提取的地面平均坡度误差E与栅格分辨率X以及地形起伏的代表性因子-沟壑密度S之间存在的量化关系为E = (0.0015S2+0.031S-0.0325)X-0.0045S2-0.155S+0.1625,该结果也为确定适用的DEM分辨率提供了理论依据。     

The Alabama-Coushatta Indians of Texas

Abstract

In Pre-Colombian times the Alabama-Coushatta migrated throughout the southern part of North America. De Soto recorded their presence in Alabama and Mississippi in 1541 and between 1700 and 1763 they were under the political control of the benevolent French. After 1763 the American colonists pushed westward, forcing the Indians to retreat beyond the Mississippi where East Texas' “Big Thicket” became their adopted home. In 1854 the State of Texas gave the Alabama Tribe a reservation tract in the Big Thicket which restricted their usual economy of sedentary farming, hunting, gathering, and fishing into an environment much too small to sustain the tribe. In the last hundred years the tribe has tried farm labor, logging, and migrating to the white man's cities as paths to an improved life. Since 1964 they have operated a tourism enterprise on the reservation and it appears that for the first time in their history a satisfactory solution for their poverty has been found.     

WEATHERING PIT CHARACTERISTICS AND TOPOGRAPHY ON STONE MOUNTAIN,GEORGIA

A detailed analysis of weathering-pit distribution on Georgia's Stone Mountain granite dome reveals a complex relationship between pit size and density, compared with slope aspect and angle. The uniform nature of the lithology provides an ideal natural laboratory for the analysis of weathering pits. Through the random establishment of 32 dome-encircling, ten-by-ten meter study plots within an elevational range from 610 to 650 meters, the distribution, size, aspect, slope and lithology of pit features were mapped, measured, and analyzed. Thematic maps were used in the visual representation of pit distribution and dimension data. Correlation coefficients, ANOVA, and multiple regression analyses were utilized to determine the relationships of these variables. Pits showed a dimensional and density increase toward a southwestern aspect as well as a dimensional and density increase with decreasing slope angle. Greatest pit dimensions were found at approximately the 200° N azimuth. These findings lead the authors to conclude that insolation weathering may be a more important process in granite pit formation on Stone Mountain than commonly believed because afternoon temperature maxima accelerate weathering through increased chemical constituent dissolution and/or crystal constituent disintegration. [Key words: weathering pits, gnammas, granite weathering, Stone Mountain.]     

Influence of point-source sediment-supply on modern shelf-slope morphology: implications for interpretation of ancient shelf margins

Present sea-floor bathymetry indicates that the continental-shelf and shelf-break morphology have some unique and predictable characteristics in areas with and without high sediment supply. Using a global bathymetry dataset in open shelf areas in front of rivers that discharge over 25 × 10⁶ tons of sediment per year, five distinct accretionary types of shelf-break are distinguished based on along-shelf gradient variability and inferred shelf-break trajectory. Morphological characteristics of river-mouth shelves (compared with adjacent areas lateral to the immediate fairway of the river) are: (1) an overall lower gradient and greater width, and (2) a relatively high slope gradient/shelf gradient ratio. The exceptions are shelves with active shelf-edge deltas; these are narrower, steeper and have an attenuated shelf break in front of rivers. These observations are at seismic scale and have direct implications for the recognition and positioning of principal cross-shelf, supply fairways on ancient shelves or shelf margins, and therefore the potential by-pass routes for deepwater sands. Higher slope/shelf gradient ratios in areas of actively accreting margins, where the shelf-break is more prominent and easier to recognize on seismic data compared with adjacent areas, predict areas with high sediment supply. Along-strike morphological changes on supply-dominated shelves suggest that identification of the sediment-feed route and depocenter relative to the shelf break during a relative sea level cycle are critical for understanding/predicting the 3-D architecture of the shelf-slope-basin floor clinoform.     

高原复杂地理参数对雷电活动的影响分析

雷电活动参数作为反映区域雷电活动特征的重要指标,地形对其影响不容忽视。利用2014—2018年青海省地闪数据、数字地形高程数据以及HWSD土壤数据集,定量分析海拔、坡度、坡向以及土壤电阻率对青海省地闪分布特征的影响。结果表明：（1） 青海省地闪主要集中在海拔3150~4850 m、坡度0~35°的地区,其中东北坡向地闪次数最多,东南坡向地闪次数最少,地闪对应的土壤电阻率主要集中于100 Ω·m。（2） 地闪密度随海拔的升高先增大后减小,随坡度的增大而减小;地闪平均强度随海拔的升高先减小后增大,随坡度的增大而增大。（3） 选取92°27′00″~97°44′24″E、31°40′48″~34°16′48″N地闪活跃区域,对其1 km×1 km网格内地闪数据与地理参量平均值进行相关性分析,所选区域内地闪密度与平均海拔呈正相关关系,与平均坡度呈负相关关系;而地闪强度与平均海拔呈负相关关系,与平均坡度呈正相关关系。