Effects of heat and water vapor transport on eddy covariance measurement of CO2 fluxes

Flux densities of carbon dioxide were measured over an arid, vegetation-free surface by eddy covariance techniques and by a heat budget-profile method, in which CO₂ concentration gradients were specified in terms of mixing ratios. This method showed negligible fluxes of CO₂, consistent with the bareness of the experimental site, whereas the eddy covariance measurements indicated large downward fluxes of CO₂. These apparently conflicting observations are in quantitative agreement with the results of a recent theory which predicts that whenever there are vertical fluxes of sensible or latent heat, a mean vertical velocity is developed. This velocity causes a mean vertical convective mass flux (= _cw for CO₂, in standard notation). The eddy covariance technique neglects this mean convective flux and measures only the turbulent flux _c w. Thus, when the net flux of CO₂ is zero, the eddy covariance method indicates an apparent flux which is equal and opposite to the mean convective flux, i.e., _c w = – _c w. Corrections for the mean convective flux are particularly significant for CO₂ because _cw and _c w are often of similar magnitude. The correct measurement of the net CO₂ flux by eddy covariance techniques requires that the fluxes of sensible and latent heat be measured as well.     

Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century

Summary The first GCM climate change projections to include dynamic vegetation and an interactive carbon cycle produced a very significant amplification of global warming over the 21st century. Under the IS92a business as usual emissions scenario CO₂ concentrations reached about 980ppmv by 2100, which is about 280ppmv higher than when these feedbacks were ignored. The major contribution to the increased CO₂ arose from reductions in soil carbon because global warming is assumed to accelerate respiration. However, there was also a lesser contribution from an alarming loss of the Amazonian rainforest. This paper describes the phenomenon of Amazonian forest dieback under elevated CO₂ in the Hadley Centre climate-carbon cycle model.     

Variations in atmospheric CO2 at the Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

Since April 1986, measurements of the CO₂ concentration in the surface air have been conducted at the Meteorological Research Institure (MRI, 36°04 N, 140°07 E, 25 m above sea level) in Tsukuba, located 50 km northeast of Tokyo, Japan. The CO₂ data measured over times between 11:00 Japan Standard Time (JST) and 16:00 JST (C _N ) were considered to be representative of the air (within a few ppmv) in the planetary boundary layer. To evaluate the representative CO₂ level on a spatial scale larger than that of the C _N record, the CO₂ data with hour-to-hour variation less than 1 ppmv were selected (C _P ). Comparison of these data with those of Ryori (39°02 N, 141°50 E), a continental station operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency, indicates that the C _P record provides a representative CO₂ level in the air on spatial scales of at least a few hundred kilometers.The C _N record allows an investigation of the internanual changes in photosynthesis/respiration against changes in climatological parameters. Within a small temperature anomaly (ca.±1 °C) respiration is sensitive to the temperature change, while photosynthesis is less sensitive. When the temperature anomaly is large, however, photosynthesis and respiration tend to be competitive.     

Atmospheric trace gas measurements at Palmer Station,Antarctica: 1982–83

In early 1982 a station capable of sampling atmospheric trace gas constituents on a continuous basis was established at Palmer Station, Anvers Island, adjacent to the Antarctic Peninsula (64° 46S 64° 04W). Sampling operations began about 1 February 1982. This is an initial report on this station, its location, equipment and general research objectives along with some initial sampling results. The constituents being measured and recorded were: ozone, methane, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, CCl₃F (fluorocarbon-11), CCl₂F₂ (fluorocarbon-12), carbontetrachloride, methylchloroform, nitrous oxide, and Aitken nuclei (CN). Data storage, data processing, and sampling system control is handled by a Hewlett-Packard 85 system. Preliminary analyses of about the first 20–22 months of data are presented and show not only the expected long-term trends but also shorter period concentration cycles that seem to be related to synoptic meteorology.     

Nitrate in the atmospheric boundary layer of the tropical South Pacific: Implications regarding sources and transport

Weekly bulk aerosol samples collected at Funafuti, Tuvalu (8°30S, 179°12E), American Samoa (14°15S, 170°35W), and Rarotonga (21°15S, 159°45W), from 1983 through most of 1987 have been analyzed for nitrate and other constituents. The mean nitrate concentration is about 0.11 g m^–3 at each of these stations: 0.107±0.011 g m^–3 at Funafuti; 0.116±0.008 at American Samoa; and 0.117±0.010 at Rarotonga. Previous measurements of mineral aerosol and trace metal concentrations at American Samoa are among the lowest ever recorded for the near-surface troposphere and indicate that this region is minimally affected by transport of soil material and pollutants from the continents. Consequently, the nitrate concentration of 0.11 g m^–3 can be regarded as the natural level for the remote marine boundary layer of the tropical South Pacific Ocean. In contrast, over the tropical North Pacific which is significantly impacted by the transport of material from Asia and North America, the mean nitrate concentrations are about three times higher, 0.29 and 0.36 g m^–3 at Midway and Oahu, respectively. The major sources of the nitrate over the tropical South Pacific are still very uncertain. A very significant correlation between the nitrate concentrations at American Samoa and the concentrations of ²¹⁰Pb suggests that transport from continental sources might be important. This continental source could be lightning, which occurs most frequently over the tropical continents. A near-zero correlation with ⁷Be indicates that the stratosphere and upper troposphere are probably not the major sources. A significant biogenic source would be consistent with the higher mean nitrate concentrations, 0.16 to 0.17 g m^–3, found over the equatorial Pacific at Fanning Island (3°55N, 159°20W) and Nauru (0°32S, 166°57E). The lack of correlation between nitrate and nss sulfate at American Samoa does not necessarily preclude an important role for marine biogenic sources.     

Time series analyses of concentration and wind fluctuations

Analyses of concentration fluctuation (C) spectra from boundary-layer smoke plume experiments at six separate locations show that the spectra from these experiments generally exhibit an inertial subrange at high frequencies with a slope of -5/3 and indicate peak energy at a time period of about 50 to 100 s. These periods of peak energy are a factor of two to five less than those for the peak of the wind speed fluctuation (u or v) spectra. A general spectral formula fits normalized spectra from the U.S. and Australia, where the frequency, n, is made dimensionless by multiplying by the plume dispersion parameter, _y , and dividing by the wind speed, u. Peak energy occurs at a dimensionless frequency of n _y/u equal to about 0.15. The Kolmogorov constant in the inertial subrange is estimated from a set of averaged spectra. Cross-spectra indicate little relation between concentration and wind fluctuations. However, most of the correlation that exists is due to periods larger than about 10 or 20 s.     

Effects of Climate Change on Carbon Storage in Boreal Forests of China: A Local Perspective

The BIOME3 model was used to simulate the distribution patterns and carbon storage of the horizontal, zonal boreal forests in northeast and northwest China using a mapping system for vegetation patterns combined with carbon density estimates from vegetation and soils. The BIOME3 prediction is in reasonable good agreement with the potential distribution of Chinese boreal forests. The effects of changing atmospheric CO₂ concentration had a nonlinear effect on boreal forest distribution, with 3.5–10.8% reduced areas for both increasing and decreasing CO₂. In contrast, the increased climate together with and without changing CO₂ concentration showed dramatic changes in geographic patterns, with 70% reduction in area and disappearance of almost boreal forests in northeast China. The baseline carbon storage in boreal forests of China is 4.60 PgC (median estimate) based on the vegetation area of actual boreal forest distribution. If taking the large area of agricultural crops into account, the median value of potential carbon storage is 6.92 PgC. The increasing (340–500 ppmv) and decreasing CO₂ concentration (340–200 ppmv) led to decrease of carbon storage, 0.33 PgC and 1.01 PgC respectively compared to BIOME3 potential prediction under present climate and CO₂ conditions. Both climate change alone and climate change with CO₂ enrichment (340–500 ppmv) reduced largely the carbon stored in vegetation and soils by ca. 6.5 PgC. The effect of climate change is more significant than the direct physiological effect of CO₂ concentration on the boreal forests of China, showing a large reduction in both distribution area and carbon storage.     

Calculation of velocity skewness in real and artificial plant canopies

Wind velocities within a plant canopy are much more strongly skewed than those of the air flow above. We have examined the governing Eulerian equations for the velocity products u _i, u _j u_k using data from a wind tunnel study with an artificial canopy consisting of an array of 5 cm lengths of monofilament fishing line, and from measurements in corn (Zea mays L).Simple parameterizations for pressure-velocity correlations, and for the quadruple velocity products allowed reasonably accurate calculations of the third moments using measured profiles of the mean velocity, variance and covariance fields. Comparisons of individual terms in the rate equations for ovu _i, u _j u _krevealed that diffusion (from above) and mean shear were most important in creating large skewness in the canopy. A drag term also contributed but was of lesser importance. These terms were balanced by return-to-isotropy and a turbulence interaction term. A quasi-Gaussian approximation considerably underestimated the magnitude of the fourth moments within the canopy.     

Occurrence of roll circulations in a shallow boundary layer

Meteorological measurements taken at the Näsudden wind turbine site during slightly unstable conditions have been analyzed. The height of the convective boundary layer (CBL) was rather low, varying between 60 and 300 m. Turbulence statistics near the ground followed Monin-Obukhov similarity, whereas the remaining part of the boundary layer can be regarded as a near neutral upper layer. In 55% of the runs, horizontal roll vortices were found. Those were the most unstable runs, with -z _i/L > 5. Spectra and co-spectra are used to identify the structures. Three roll indicators were identified: (i) a low frequency peak in the spectrum of the lateral component at low level; (ii) a corresponding increase in the vertical component at mid-CBL; (iii) a positive covariance {ovvw} together with positive wind shear in the lateral direction (V/z) in the CBL. By applying these indicators, it is possible to show that horizontal roll circulations are likely to be a common phenomenon over the Baltic during late summer and early winter.     

Stability Analysis of the Climate-Vegetation System in the Northern High Latitudes

The stability of the climate-vegetation system in the northern high latitudesis analysed with three climate system models of different complexity: A comprehensive 3-dimensional model of the climate system, GENESIS-IBIS, and two Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), CLIMBER-2 andMoBidiC. The biogeophysical feedback in the latitudinal belt 60–70° N, although positive, is not strong enough to support multiple steady states: A unique equilibriumin the climate-vegetation system is simulated by all the models on a zonal scale for present-day climate and doubled CO₂ climate.EMIC simulations with decreased insolation also reveal a unique steady state. However, the climate sensitivity to tree cover, T_F, exhibits non-linear behaviour within the models. For GENESIS-IBIS and CLIMBER-2, T_F islower for doubled CO₂ climate than for present-day climate due to a shorter snow season and increased relative significance ofthe hydrological effect of forest cover. For the EMICs, T_F is higher for low tree fraction than for high treefraction, mainly due to a time shift in spring snow melt in response to changes in tree cover. The climate sensitivity to tree coveris reduced when thermohaline circulation feedbacks are accounted for in the EMIC simulations. Simpler parameterizations of oceanic processes have opposite effects on T_F: T_F is lower in simulations with fixed SSTs and higher in simulations with mixed layer oceans. Experiments with transient CO₂ forcing show climate and vegetation not in equilibrium in the northern high latitudes at the end of the 20thcentury. The delayed response of vegetation and accelerated global warming lead to rather abrupt changes in northern vegetation cover in the first halfof the 21st century, when vegetation cover changes at double the present day rate.     

Studies of the atmospheric stability characteristics during the solar eclipse of February 16, 1980

Observations made with a monostatic sodar and from a 120 m instrumented tower have been used to study the variations in the atmospheric boundary layer at Tarapur (19° 50 N, 72° 41 E) during the solar eclipse of February 16, 1980. Atmospheric instability was reduced below normal values during the eclipse but the atmosphere at no time became stable.     

Correlations among combustion effluent species at Barrow,Alaska: Aerosol black carbon,carbon dioxide,and methane

As part of the second Arctic Gas and Aerosol Sampling Program (AGASP II) continuous measurements of atmospheric aerosol black carbon (BC) were made at the NOAA/GMCC observatory at Barrow, Alaska (71°19N, 156°36W) during the period March 21–April 22, 1986. Black carbon is produced only by incomplete combustion of carbonaceous materials and so is a particularly useful atmospheric indicator of anthropogenic activities. The BC data have been analyzed together with the concurrent measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and condensation nuclei (CN) that are routinely made at the observatory. All four species showed elevated and highly variable concentrations due to local human activities, principally in the township of Barrow, 7 km to the southwest, and at the DEW Line radar installation 1 km to the northwest. We distinguish between those periods of the record that are affected by local activities and those that are not, on the basis of the short-term (periods of up to 1 hour) variability of the continuous CO₂ and CN records, with large short-term variabilities indicating local sources. We identified seven periods of time (events) with durations ranging from 13 to 37 hours when the BC, CO₂, and CH₄ concentrations changed smoothly over time, were highly correlated with each other, and were not influenced by local activities. These events had BC/CO₂ ratios in the range (50–103)×10^–6. These ratios are dimensionless since we convert the CO₂ concentrations to units of ng m^–3 of carbon. Such values of BC/CO₂ are characteristic of the combustion effluent from large installations burning heavy fuel oil or coal, automobiles, and domestic-scale natural gas usage. We conclude that these events are indicative of air masses that have been polluted with combustion emissions in a distant location and then transported to the Arctic. In the absence of species-selective loss mechanisms, these air masses will maintain their combustion effluent signatures during the transport. The BC/CO₂ ratios found for the local combustion activities are consistent with those expected from known combustion processes.     

Methane,carbon monoxide and light non-methane hydrocarbon emissions from African savanna burnings during the FOS/DECAFE experiment

Atmospheric samples from savanna burnings were collected in the Ivory Coast during two campaigns in January 1989 and January 1991. About 30 nonmethane hydrocarbons from C₂ to C₆, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and methane were measured from the background and also at various distances from the burning. Concentrations in the fire plume reached ppmv levels for C₂-C₄ hydrocarbons, and 5300, 500 and 93 ppmv for CO₂, CO and CH₄ respectively. The excess in the mixing ratios of these gases above their background level is used to derive emission factors relative to CO and CO₂. For the samples collected immediately in the fire plume, a differentiation between high and low combustion efficiency conditions is made by considering the CO/CO₂ ratio. Ethene (C₂H₄), acetylene (C₂H₂), ethane (C₂H₆) and propene (C₃H₆) are the major NMHC produced in the flaming stage, whereas a different pattern with an increasing contribution of alkanes is observed in samples typical of post flaming processes. A strong correlation between methane and carbon monoxide suggests that these compounds are produced during the same stage of the combustion. In samples collected at a distance from the fire and integrated over a period of 30 minutes, the composition is very similar to that of flaming. NMHC/CO₂ is of the order of 0.7%, CH₄/CO₂ of the order of 0.4% and CO/CO₂ of the order of 6.3%. From this study, a global production by African savanna fires is derived: 65 Tg of CO-C, 4.2 Tg of CH₄-C and 6.7 Tg of NMHC-C. Whereas acetylene can be used as a conservative tracer of the fire plumes, only ethene, propene and butenes can be considered in terms of their direct photochemical impact.     

High resolution spectral features of a series of aromatic hydrocarbons and BrO: Potential interferences in atmospheric OH-measurements

Naphthalene (C₁₀H₈), several other hydrocarbons, mostly derivates of naphthalene, and bromine oxide (BrO) were analyzed for narrow band (0.01 nm) absorption lines in the wavelength range between 307.7 and 308.3 nm to study their potential impact on OH radical measurements by differential absorption spectroscopy.Only naphthalene showed narrow band absorption lines in this wavelength region. From nine naphthalene lines the differential absorption cross-section was determined.The strongest naphthalene line at 308.002 nm is close to the Q ₁(2) OH line, but about a factor of 200 weaker (=(65.2±15.3)×10^-20 cm²/molec). The corresponding detection limit for naphthalene is about 15 ppt. We re-evaluated some spectra of our OH measurement campaign in July 1987 with respect to naphthalene and obtained an upper limit of 30 ppt for its concentration.BrO was recorded in the larger wavelength interval between 307.7 and 308.7 nm. Structured absorptions were only observed at wavelengths above 308.2 nm and no significant structures were found in the vicinity of the Q ₁(2) and Q ₁(3) OH lines.     

Microwave vegetation optical depth and inverse modelling of soil emissivity using Nimbus/SMMR satellite observations

Summary A radiative transfer model has been used to determine the large scale effective 6.6 GHz and 37 GHz optical depths of the vegetation cover. Knowledge of the vegetation optical depth is important for satellite-based large scale soil moisture monitoring using microwave radiometry. The study is based on actual observed large scale surface soil moisture data and observed dual polarization 6.6 and 37 GHz Nimbus/SMMR brightness temperatures over a 3-year period. The derived optical depths have been compared with microwave polarization differences and polarization ratios in both frequencies and with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values from NOAA/AVHRR. A synergistic approach to derive surface soil emissivity from satellite observed brightness temperatures by inverse modelling is described. This approach improves the relationship between satellite derived surface emissivity and large scale top soil moisture fromR ²=0.45 (no correction for vegetation) toR ²=0.72 (after correction for vegetation). This study also confirms the relationship between the microwave-based MPDI and NDVI earlier described and explained in the literature.List of Symbols f frequency [Hz] - f _i(p) fractional absorption at polarizationp - h surface roughness - h h cos² - H horizontal polarization - n _i complex index of refraction - p polarization (H orV) - R _s microwave surface reflectivity - T _B(p) brightness temperature at polarizationp - T ^* normalized brightness temperature - T polarization difference (T _v-T _H) - T _s temperature of soil surface - T _c temperature of canopy - T _max daily maximum air temperature - T _min daily minimum air temperature - V vertical polarization - soil moisture distribution factor; also used for the constant to partition the influence of bound and free water components to the dielectric constant of the mixture - empirical complex constant related to soil texture - microwave transmissivity of vegetation (=e ^–) - ^* effective transmissivity of vegetation (assuming =0) - microwave emissivity - _s emissivity of smooth soil surface - _rs emissivity of rough soil surface - _vs emissivity of vegetated surface - soil moisture content (% vol.) - K dielectric constant [F·m^–1] - K _fw dielectric constant of free water [F·m^–1] - K _ss dielectric constant of soil solids [F·m^–1] - K _m dielectric constant of mixture [F·m^–1] - K _o permittivity of free space [8.854·10^–12 F·m^–1] - high frequency limit ofK _wf [F·m^–1] - wavelength [m] - incidence angle [degrees from nadir] - polarization ratio (T _H/T _V) - b soil bulk density [gr·cm^–3] - s soil particle density [gr·cm^–3] - R surface reflectivity in red portion of spectrum - NIR surface reflectivity in near infrared portion of spectrum - _eff effective conductivity of soil extract [mS·cm^–1] - vegetation optical depth - _6.6 vegetation optical depth at 6.6 GHz - ₃₇ vegetation optical depth at 37 GHz - ^* effective vegetation optical depth (assuming =0) - single scattering albedo of vegetation With 12 Figures     

Measurement of atmospheric total ozone by the filter photometric method

The total ozone content in the atmosphere was determined from the multichannel photometer observations of direct solar radiation made in the urban environment at Pune (18° 32 N, 73° 51E, 559 m ASL) and Sinhagad hill station (18° 22N, 73° 45E, 1305 m ASL) during March 1980-February 1982. The total ozone content of the atmosphere was computed making use of the differential absorption of solar radiation due to ozone at 0.4 and 0.6 m wavelengths in the Chappuis band. The values of the ozone data obtained from the photometer observations at Pune and Sinhagad were compared with the corresponding ozone data obtained from the Dobson spectrophotometer located at Pune. Values of ozone obtained by the photometric method were found to be smaller by 8–18% than the Dobson values when Vigroux's absorption coefficients were used. Similarly, when the absorption coefficients of Inn and Tanaka (1953) were used, the ozone values obtained by the photometric method were smaller by 4–14% than the Dobson values. The ozone values at the hill station obtained from the photometric method were in better agreement (5%) with the Dobson values.     

Modelling the equilibrium and transient responses of global temperature to past and future trace gas concentrations

Recent works with energy balance climate models and oceanic general circulation models have assessed the potential role of the world ocean for climatic changes on a decadal to secular time scale. This scientific challenge is illustrated by estimating the response of the global temperature to changes in trace gas concentration from the pre-industrial epoch to the middle of the next century. A simple energetic formulation is given to estimate the effect on global equilibrium temperature of a fixed instantaneous radiative forcing and of a time-dependent radiative forcing. An atmospheric energy balance model couple to a box-advection-diffusion ocean model is then used to estimate the past and future global climalic transient response to trace-gas concentration changes. The time-dependent radiative perturbation is estimated from a revised approximate radiative parameterization, and the recent reference set of trace gas scenarios proposed by Wuebbles et al. (1984) are adopted as standard scenarios. Similar computations for the past and future have recently been undertaken by Wigley (1985), but using a purely diffusive ocean and slightly different trace gas scenarios. The skill of the socalled standard experiment is finally assessed by examining the model sensitivity of different parameters such as the equilibrium surface air temperature change for a doubled CO₂ concentration [T _ae (2×CO₂)], the heat exchange with the deeper ocean and the trace gas scenarios. For T _ae (2×CO₂) between 1 K and 5 K, the following main results are obtained: (i) for a pre-industrial CO₂, concentration of 270 ppmv, the surface air warming between 1850 and 1980 ranges between 0.4 and 1.4 K (if a pre-industrial CO₂ concentration of 290 ppmv is chosen, the range is between 0.3 and 1 K); (ii) by comparison with the instantaneous equilibrium computations, the deeper ocean inertia induces a delay which amounts to between 6 years [for lower T _ae (2×CO₂)] and 23 years [for higher Tae(2×CO₂)] in 1980; (iii) for the standard future CO₂ and other trace gas scenarios of Wuebbles et al., the surface air warming between 1980 and 2050 is calculated to range between 0.9 and 3.4 K, with a delay amounting to between 7 years and 32 years in 2050 when compared to equilibrium computations.     

A Case Study of Carbon Pools Under Three Different Land-Uses in Panamá

This paper examines changes in carbon (C) pools associated with land-use, synthesizing data from two experiments dealing with different aspects of tree plantation establishment in Central Panamá. First, we analysed soil profiles in a grazed pasture and an adjacent 5-year-old teak (Tectona grandis) plantation. There were small differences in soil C mass in the top 10 cm of the pasture and the plantation, though analysis of paired profiles suggested larger differences at greater depth. Analysis of the ¹³C signatures in the pasture soils and litter showed that 90% to 95% of the organic matter in the surface 5 cm was derived from C₄ pasture plants, over the 45 years since the pasture was converted from forest. Comparison of the ¹³C signatures in the pasture and teak plantation profiles indicated substantial replacement of C₄—derived organic matter with the dominantly C₃—derived plantation tissues. Organic matter turnover times in the upper 10 cm of the soils ranged from 8 to 34 years and from 11 to 58 years in the upper 30 cm, depending on topographic location. We also present preliminary results, and technical challenges, for an eddy covariance experiment set up to provide a direct comparison between a grazed pasture and a native tree plantation. The two ecosystems studied are estimated to be small CO₂ sinks, 92 g,C,m^–2 yr^–1 for the pasture, and 57 g,C,m^–2 yr^–1 for native species plantation in the first year after establishment. The pastures response to seasonal change was more pronounced, both in term of CO₂ fluxes and in term of herbaceous productivity, than the plantations response. The storage below ground systems contained up 40% of the total sapling biomass.     

Théorie des oscillations annuelles et diurnes de la température à la surface des continents et des océans

Résumé On détermine analytiquement les températures absoluesT (z, t) etT (z, t) dans l'air et dans le substrat terrestre, au voisinage de la surface de séparation de ces milieux, sous la condition que le rayonnement global varie dans le temps selon une fonction périodique simple ou quelconque. A cette fin, on s'attache à résoudre le système des deux équations de la chaleur dans l'air et dans le substrat terrestre en tenant compte de toutes les conditions physiques déterminantes du problème. Celles-ci interviennent dans l'équation énergétique aux limites pour le plan de séparationz=0. Un minimum d'hypothèses simplificatrices confère une plus haute valeur pratique aux résultats. Leur limitation principale réside dans le fait que les diffusivités turbulentesK etK _w de l'air et de l'Océan sont supposées constantes. On retrouve le résultat classique selon lequel l'onde thermique est déphasée sur le rayonnement global et jouit d'une amplitude proportionnelle à celle de ce rayonnement. Toutefois, l'amortissement thermique et le déphasage dépendent cette fois de la somme + des «propriétés thermiques» du substrat et de l'air, et étant alternativement dominant selon qu'il s'agit des Continents ou des Océans. Dans ce dernier cas, la théorie des oscillations thermiques est traitée d'abord en admettant l'existence d'une couche d'eau isothermique. On établit ensuite la théorie plus réaliste qui considère à la fois la diffusivité thermique turbulenteK _w et le coefficient d'extinctionq du rayonnement global dans l'Océan. Le point de départ de la théorie est l'équation de la chaleur dans un milieu semi-transparent. Les résultats montrent que l'onde thermique de surface subit un amortissement complémentaire dû au facteurq, le déphasage sur le rayonnement global pouvant atteindre 91 jours alors que cette limite n'est que de 45 jours pour les Continents. La discussion des résultats théoriques montre leur bon accord quantitatif avec les faits observés. On termine par quelques applications de la théorie; on montre notamment que celle-ci valide rationnellement la théorie astronomique des phases climatiques quaternaires.

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Summary Absolute temperaturesT (z, t) andT (z, t) near the interface of air and terrestrial substratum are analytically determined, under the condition that the total radiation varies with time according to a simple or to any other periodic function. To achieve this, the system of two equations of heat in air and terrestrial substratum is resolved in taking into account all the determining physical conditions of the problem. These conditions are considered in the energy boundary equation for the surface of separationz=0. A minimum number of simplifying hypotheses give a higher practical value to the results whose principal limitation lies in the fact that eddy conductivitiesK andK _w of air and ocean water are supposed to be constant. The classical result that the thermal wave differs in phase from the total radiation and gives an amplitude proportional to that radiation is confirmed. However, the thermal damping and the lag in phase depend here of the sum + of the thermal properties of the substratum and the air, and being preponderant for continents and oceans respectively. In the last case, the theory of thermal oscillations is first studied with the aid of the hypothesis of an isothermal water layer. Then a more realistic theory is established which considers in addition the eddy diffusivityK _w and the extinction coefficientq of the total radiation in the ocean. The basis of the theory is the heat equation for a semi-transparent medium. The results show that the surface thermal wave suffers a further damping due toq. In addition, the maximum temperature may lag behind the maximum radiation by as much as 91 days as against a maximum of 45 days for the continents. The discussion of the theoretical results shows their good quantitative agreement with the observations. Some practical applications of the theory are given. For example the validity of the astronomical theory of the climatic changes during the Quaternary period is rationally justified.

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Zusammenfassung Die absoluten TemperatureT (z, t) undT (z, t) von Luft und terrestrischer Unterlage in der Nähe der Trennschicht der beiden Medien werden analytisch bestimmt mit der Bedingung, daß die Globalstrahlung nach einer einfachen oder einer beliebigen periodischen Funktion mit der Zeit variiert. Zu diesem Zweck wird versucht, under Berücksichtigung aller bestimmenden physikalischen Bedingungen des Problems das System der beiden Wärmegleichungen für Luft und für das terrestrische Substrat zu lösen. Diese gehen in der Energiegleichung für die Grenzbédingungen der Trennflächez=0 ineinander über. Ein Minimum an vereinfachenden Hypothesen erhöht den praktischen Wert der Resultate; die Annahme der Konstanz des AustauschkoeffizientenA=K undA _w = _w A _w der Luft und des Ozeans bildet die wichtigste Einschränkung. Das klassische Resultat, nach dem die Wärmewelle zur Globalstrahlung in Phase verschoben und ihre Amplitude proportional zur Strahlungsamplitude ist, wird bestätigt. Die Abschwächung der thermischen Amplitude sowie die Phasenverschiebung hängen aber von der Summe + der thermischen Eigenschaften der Unterlage und der Luft ab; wobei oder überwiegt, je nachdem es sich um die Kontinente oder die Ozeane handelt. Für den letzteren Fall Wird die Theorie der Wärmeschwankungen zuerst unter der Annahme der Existenz einer isothermen Wasserschicht behandelt. Hernach wird die allgemeiner gültige Theorie entwickelt, welche gleichzeitig den TurbulenzaustauschA _w und den Extinktionskoeffizientenq der Globalstrahlung im Ozean in Betracht zieht. Den Ausgangspunkt für die Theorie bildet die Wärmegleichung für ein Strahlungsdurchlässiges Medium. Die Resultate zeigen, daß die Oberflächenwärmewelle eine Abschwächung entsprechend dem Faktorq erfährt; dabei kann die Phasenverschiebung gegenüber der Globalstrahlung 91 Tage erreichen, während die maximale Verschiebung für die Kontinente nur 45 Tage beträgt. Die Vergleichung der theoretischen Resultate ergibt deren gute quantitative Übereinstimmung mit den Beobachtungstatsachen. Zum Schluß werden einige Anwendungen der Theorie gebracht; so wird z. B. gezeigt, daß diese eine sinngemäße Rechtfertigung der Gültigkeit der astronomischen Theorie der quaternären klimatischen Phasen gestattet.

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Institut belge pour l'Encouragement de la Recherche Scientifique Outre-Mer (IBERSOM), 3, rue Montoyer, Bruxelles, Belgique.     

Maximum precipitation for different short-term intervals

Summary A time series and extreme value analysis of maximum precipitation for distinct time intervals from 10 minutes to 1 day have been deduced for the observatory Zagreb-Gri ( = 45°49 and = 15°59,H _s = 157 m) for the period between 1908 and 1985. The Spearman rank correlation test revealed that the short-term precipitation maxima series for the time intervals of 10 to 30 minutes and 8 to 24 hours indicate no significant trend for the 95 percent probability level. The 40-minute to 4-hour precipitation maxima exhibited an increaese in recent time. Annual maximumt-minute precipitation was estimated using the Gumbel distribution for sets of data gradually prolonged with 10-year steps towards the past. The ratios (q) of maximum precipitation estimates for the shorter periods and of estimates for the reference period (1908–1985) have been calculated. Their positions according to the confidence interval on the reference estimates were determined. Confident extreme value estimates could be obtained using at least the 50–60 year data series.With 3 Figures