钻孔耦合对体应变观测的影响分析

利用三层厚壁筒组合模型,给出不同类型体应变的相互转换关系,分析模型参数变化对3类体应变仪观测的影响。通过对全国60多个台站的体应变观测资料分析,发现钻孔的气压系数与潮汐因子无简单对应关系。利用固体潮标定不同台站的体应变到统一系统的体应变,结果表明,多数台站存在体应变潮汐因子观测值比理论值明显偏小现象,推测可能与钻孔存在非完全耦合有关。     

昌平台钻孔应变固体潮调合分析

介绍了体应变观测潮汐因子和勒夫数 h2 之间的线性关系 ,h2 的变化幅度较体应变观测潮汐因子震前异常变化大 7.5倍。同时 ,昌平台剪应变观测潮汐因子 O1波与体应变观测潮汐因子M2 波震前异常有较好的一致性 ,研究钻孔应变观测潮汐因子的变化有可能是取得地震前兆的有效途径之一。     

基于四层钻孔模型的体应变潮汐因子差异性原因分析

在钻孔应变观测的实际标定分析中,一般是通过对钻孔应变观测资料采用固体潮调和分析的方法直接获得钻孔面应变耦合系数,该方法未能充分反映观测的钻孔应变与地层应变之间的内在联系。本文基于“地层-等效弹性层-水泥环-钢筒”四层耦合介质钻孔模型,利用TJ-2C型体应变仪器的测量钢筒内外径和弹性参数、钻孔半径以及水泥环弹性参数,给出不同地层中钻孔耦合系数与钻孔等效弹性层弹性模量之间的变化关系。对我国现有运行的40多套TJ-2C型钻孔体应变观测资料的分析表明,潮汐因子分布范围在0.01至1.86之间,基岩为花岗岩类的潮汐因子均值为0.83,基岩为灰岩或砂岩类的潮汐因子均值为0.57,即硬地层中的潮汐因子高于软地层。基于对该四层模型探讨发现,等效弹性层的等效弹性模量大小反映了钻孔的耦合状态,对于同类型基岩地层,探头与地层耦合不佳将导致其等效弹性层弹性模量下降,进而导致钻孔潮汐因子下降。本文以砂岩弹性模量0.5 GPa作为判定钻孔耦合状态的下限,即认为等效弹性模量低于0.5 GPa时钻孔处于脱耦状态,统计结果表明我国现有钻孔体应变观测中有约30%的钻孔处于脱耦状态,这一研究结果对预报人员应用这些钻孔资料开展地震分析预报工作有重要指导意义。     

库尔勒钻孔水位动态特征的初步分析

库尔勒铁门关钻孔应变台体应变辅助观测钻孔水位,2011年5月3日和2012年5月2日出现幅度和大小相似的突跳,其年变化动态与无震年份也存在一定的差异。对体应变数据消除潮汐改正和零漂后的高频信息进行了分析,结果表明,钻孔水位突跳与孕震区域的构造位置、台基岩性等因素有关,体应变高频信息异常幅度有随震中距增大而减小的特点。     

东平台分量应变与体应变可靠性分析及特殊事件影响对比

本文通过四分量自检、相对标定内精度分析对东平地震台YRY-4钻孔分量应变观测资料进行可靠性分析,并结合滑动相关性计算、潮汐因子内精度对2套仪器数据进行了对比,证明YRY-4钻孔分量应变2面应变相关性高,相关系数接近1,相对标定内精度高,与体应变数据整体趋势一致。2套仪器观测环境一致,运行稳定,数据正常可靠,但也存在降雨、场地干扰特殊时段曲线表现不一致的情况。针对2种特殊情况结合相关性计算、S变换进行了对比分析。结果表明,降雨时段,因钻孔条件差别较大,2套仪器数据相关性较差,接近0;场地干扰时段,2套仪器观测系统均受到影响,频率域同步出现干扰信号,影响数据曲线形态及潮汐因子精度,但2套仪器面应变相关性达0.91。综合分析,东平台钻孔应变仪与体应变2套仪器观测系统是可靠稳定的。      

钻孔体应变观测资料的实地校正

以钻孔体应变为例,利用潮汐因子对钻孔体应变观测资料进行校正。结果表明,由于各台所处的构造条件、地形条件、钻孔条件不同,各台的校正系数也不同。校正系数隨时间变化比较稳定,变异程度系数最大约为4.1%最小仅有0.1%,表明校正结果相当好。文中给出了部分钻孔体应变台站观测资料的校正系数。该方法有计算简便、结果可靠、实用性较强等优点。     

库尔勒铁门关体应变观测资料异常分析

剔除库尔勒铁门关钻孔体应变资料中地震波和明确原因的干扰数据,计算体应变潮汐因子、消除潮汐和零漂后提取的异常信息。研究表明,体应变潮汐形态出现的不同程度张性转向异常、潮汐因子曲线形态、周期等异常信息与新疆于田县MS7.3地震前兆有关。     

基于钻孔特性的体应变观测相关性研究

采用相关分析与调和分析方法对江苏省数字化以来的体应变观测数据进行计算,研究不同台站观测资料变化特征。结合钻孔柱状图和仪器运行状况,分析了M_2波潮汐因子、气压和水位回归系数与岩性和井孔特性的关系,讨论在安装过程中提高体应变仪观测质量的有效措施。     

连云港地震台钻孔应变同震变化观测资料分析

对连云港地震台钻孔体应变2009年1月—2013年12月数字化观测资料与气压、水位、降雨的影响进行相关分析,并进行潮汐因子M2波、周日波变化分析,获得地震前形变临震异常特征。结果表明:1气压变化以短周期正相关干扰为主,在时间上表现为准同步变化;体应变和水位变化具有较好的准同步性;降雨过程、降雨量及降雨时间等与体应变密切相关;2当地下介质性质发生变化时,固体潮发生畸变,潮汐因子变化可作为取得地震前兆的有效途径之一。     

怀来地形变综合台的地潮观测

阐述了怀来形变综合台的地倾斜,洞体应与钻孔应变等观测项目的台条件,仪器设备,观测管理与倾斜,线应变,体应变固体潮汐观测的精度评定。该台可与国内外知名台站媲美的优质台。     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Foreword

Destructive earthquakes have caused great damage in China and the United States and collapsing buildings havecaused many deaths and injuries. The field of earthquake engineering studies earthquake hazards, the occurrence ofearthquakes of various magnitudes, the nature of the ground shaking during an earthquake, the vibration of structuresduring earthquakes, the strengthening of existing structures and the design of new structures to be earthquake resistant,and finally, how to cope with earthquake damage and restore a city to normal functioning. Such efforts are in progressin both countries, but unfortunately, the language barrier interferes with the free flow of information between China andthe Untied States. It would be mutually beneficial if some means could be developed to promote the exchangeof information across the Pacific Ocean. This new journal has been established for this purpose and its success willbe an important step in promoting earthquake engineering in China and the United States.     

WORLD ASSOCIATION FOR SEDIMENTATION AND EROSION RESEARCH(WASER)

正President:Giampaolo Di Silvio,Italy Vice Presidents:Ulrich C.E.Zanke,Germany Zhao-yin Wang,China The World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research(WASER),inaugurated on Oct.19,2004,is an independent non-governmental,non-profit organization.The mission of WASER is to promote international co-operation on the study     

Enhancing remote sensing research on global change to improve our understanding on Earth system processes

正Global Change includes climate change and other environmental changes caused by the joint interaction among various layers of Earth. From the positive side, global change provides new opportunities to human and other living forms on Earth. In the meantime, it creates tremendous challenges and negative impact. At present, the negative impacts have reached all primary processes of the global ecosystem and every aspect of human society, especially causing degradation of the ecosystem. For instance, intensive deforestation causes decline of biodiversity; global warming causes sea level rise and increases