琼州7.5级地震区深部电性异常及地震活动性研究

通过对1605年琼州7.5级大地震震中区及邻近地区大地电磁探测，发现震中区地壳深部存在一低阻体.该低阻体自约13 km以下一直延伸到上地幔，推测其为正在上升的地幔柱，并由此认为地幔柱的存在及其热物质的上涌，使上部地壳产生断裂和粘滑活动，是产生琼州7.5级大地震的重要原因. 这次大地震后断裂活动表现为以蠕滑为主.推测未来再发生同等强度大地震的危险性将大大降低.      

Deep electrical anomaly in the M7.5 Qiongzhou earthquake region and its relation with future seismicity

From the magnetotelluric detection in the epicentral region and the adjacent areas of the 1605 M7.5 Qiongzhou earthquake, we have discovered there is a low resistive body in the deep crust of the epicentral region. The low resistive body extends straightly from the depth of about 13 km to the upper mantle, which is supposed as an up-rising mantle pole. We therefore consider it is just the existing mantle pole and its upwelling thermal material that result in the faulting and stick-slipping activities of the upper crust, which is an important factor for the M7.5 Qiongzhou great earthquake occurrence. The postseismic faulting activity is characterized by creep, which shows that the risk is greatly decreased for the occurrence of a great earthquake with similar intensity in the future.     

Changes in source parameters of foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2001 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>=6.0 Yajiang,Sichuan, earthquake

In this paper changes in focal mechanisms, parameters of wave spectra, and stress drops for the M _S=5.0 foreshock and M _S=6.0 mainshock in February 2001 in Yajiang County, Sichuan, and seismicity in epicentral region are studied. Comparison of focal mechanisms for the Yajiang earthquakes with distribution patterns of aftershocks, the nodal plane I, striking in the direction of NEN, of the Yajiang M=5.0 event is chosen as the faulting plane; the nodal plane II, striking in the direction of WNW, of the M=6.0 event as the faulting plane. The strikes of the two faulting planes are nearly perpendicular to each other. The level of stress drops in the epicentral region before the occurrence of the M=6.0 earthquake increases, which is consistent with increase of seismicity in the epicentral region. The rate decay of the Yajiang earthquake sequence, changes in wave spectra for foreshocks and aftershocks, and focal mechanisms are complex.     

Mechanism of the M<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">L</Emphasis></Subscript>4.0 25 April 2016 earthquake in southwest of France in the vicinity of the Lacq gas field

The source mechanism of the M_L 4.0 25 April 2016 Lacq earthquake (Aquitaine Basin, South-West France) is analyzed from the available public data and discussed with respect to the geometry of the nearby Lacq gas field. It is one of the biggest earthquakes in the area in the past few decades of gas extraction and the biggest after the end of gas exploitation in 2013. The routinely obtained location shows its hypocenter position inside the gas reservoir. We first analyze its focal mechanism through regional broad-band seismograms recorded in a radius of about 50 km epicentral distances and obtain EW running normal faulting above the reservoir. While the solution is stable using regional data only, we observe a large discrepancy between the recorded data on nearby station URDF and the forward modeling up to 1 Hz. We then look for the best epicenter position through performing wave propagation simulations and constraining the potential source area by the peak ground velocity (PGV). The resulting epicentral position is a few to several km away to the north or south direction with respect to station URDF such that the simulated particle motions are consistent with the observation. The initial motion of the seismograms shows that the epicenter position in the north from URDF is preferable, indicating the north-east of the Lacq reservoir. This study is an application of full waveform simulations and characterization of near-field ground motion in terms of an engineering factor such as PGV. The finally obtained solution gives a moment magnitude of M_w 3.9 and the best focal depth of 4 km, which corresponds to the crust above the reservoir rather than its interior. This position is consistent with the tendency of Coulomb stress change due to a compaction at 5 km depth in the crust. Therefore, this earthquake can be interpreted as a relaxation of the shallow crust due to a deeper gas reservoir compaction so that the occurrence of similar events cannot be excluded in the near future. It would be necessary to continue monitoring such local induced seismicity in order to better understand the reservoir/overburden behavior and better assess the local seismic hazard even after the end of gas exploitation.     

3D <Emphasis Type="Italic">v</Emphasis><Subscript>P</Subscript> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">v</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript> models of southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau from joint inversion of body-wave arrival times and surface-wave dispersion data

A new 3D velocity model of the crust and upper mantle in the southeastern (SE) margin of the Tibetan plateau was obtained by joint inversion of body- and surface-wave data. For the body-wave data, we used 7190 events recorded by 102 stations in the SE margin of the Tibetan plateau. The surface-wave data consist of Rayleigh wave phase velocity dispersion curves obtained from ambient noise cross-correlation analysis recorded by a dense array in the SE margin of the Tibetan plateau. The joint inversion clearly improves the v _S model because it is constrained by both data types. The results show that at around 10 km depth there are two low-velocity anomalies embedded within three high-velocity bodies along the Longmenshan fault system. These high-velocity bodies correspond well with the Precambrian massifs, and the two located to the northeast of 2013 M _S 7.0 Lushan earthquake are associated with high fault slip areas during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The aftershock gap between 2013 Lushan earthquake and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is associated with low-velocity anomalies, which also acts as a barrier zone for ruptures of two earthquakes. Generally large earthquakes (M ≥ 5) in the region occurring from 2008 to 2015 are located around the high-velocity zones, indicating that they may act as asperities for these large earthquakes. Joint inversion results also clearly show that there exist low-velocity or weak zones in the mid-lower crust, which are not evenly distributed beneath the SE margin of Tibetan plateau.     

On a possible origin of the anomalous effects that were observed during the May 24, 2013 earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk

The deep-focus Sea of Okhotsk earthquake that occurred on May 24, 2013 (h = 630 km, M _w = 8.3) was accompanied by anomalous effects that were unknown previously. A combined analysis of published data concerning the source rupture evolution and some features of the deep structure provided an explanation of some anomalous effects, such as the large number of aftershocks and the low level of ground shaking in the epicentral area. However, GPS observations revealed high coseismic vertical displacements in the area. The seafloor uplift in the Sea of Okhotsk and the adjacent coasts was 3–12 mm, peaking at the approximate center of the sea, while Kamchatka and the North Kuril Islands subsided by 3–18 mm, peaking at the Apacha station 190 km east of the earthquake epicenter. These maximum estimates are 1.2–1.8 times the analogous values (10 mm) for the Chile mega-earthquake of May 20, 1960 (M _w ~ 9.5). It is known that the large distances at which ground shaking is felt during deep-focus earthquakes are due to the fact that the body waves travel through the high-Q lower mantle. However, this does not explain the paradox of the present earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk, viz., a constant intensity of shaking (two grades) in the range of epicentral distances between 1300 and 9500 km. The explanation requires consideration of the earth’s free oscillations excited by the earthquake.     

The earthquake of July 22, 2011 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> = 4.5) in a low-seismicity area of the Argun region

The paper considers the Argun earthquake of July 22, 2011 (M _w = 4.5), which occurred in the Argun River valley in a low-seismicity territory in China. The focal parameters of the earthquake (depth of the hypocenter, moment magnitude, scalar seismic moment, and focal mechanism) were determined by calculating the seismic moment tensor from the amplitude spectra of surface waves and the data on the signs of the first arrivals of body waves at regional stations. The solution of the focal mechanism makes it possible to assume a relationship between the earthquake focus and a fault with a northeastern strike bordering the southeastern side of the Argun Basin (in Chinese territory). The Argun earthquake was felt in Russia with an intensity of II–III to V at the epicentral distances up to 255 km. The intensity of shaking did not exceed values suggested by new GSZ-2012 and GSZ-2014 seismic zoning maps of Russian territory. Nevertheless, the question on the possible occurrence of stronger earthquakes in the studied region remains open.     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of M _S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M _S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.     

Seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> <Subscript> <Emphasis Type="Italic">s</Emphasis> </Subscript> = 6.9 Ilin-Tass earthquake in northeast Yakutia

The complex seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the Ilin-Tas earthquake (M_s = 6.9), one of the strongest seismic events ever recorded by the regional seismic network in northeastern Russia, are carried out. The structural tectonic position, morphotectonic features of present-day topography, active faults, and types of Cenozoic deformations of the epicentral zone are analyzed. The data of the instrumental observations are summarized, and the manifestations of the strong seismic events in the Yana–Indigirka segment of the Cherskii seismotectonic zone are considered. The explanation is suggested for the dynamical tectonic setting responsible for the Andrei-Tas seismic maximum. This setting is created by the influence of the Kolyma–Omolon indenter, which intrudes into the Cherskii seismotectonic zone from the region of the North American lithospheric plate and forms the main seismogenic structures of the Yana–Indigirka segment in the frontal zone (the Ilin-Tas anticlinorium). The highest seismic potential is noted in the Andrei- Tas block—the focus of the main tectonic impacts from the Kolyma–Omolon superterrane. The general trend of this block coincides with the orientation of the major axis of isoseismal ellipses (azimuth 50°–85°), which were determined from the observations of macroseismic effects on the ground after the Uyandina (M_s = 5.6), Andrei-Tas (M_s = 6.1), and Ilin-Tas (M_s = 6.9) earthquakes.     

Source parameters for the 2013–2015 earthquake sequence in Nógrád county,Hungary

Between 2013 June and 2015 January, 35 earthquakes with local magnitude M _L ranging from 1.1 to 4.2 occurred in Nógrád county, Hungary. This earthquake sequence represents above average seismic activity in the region and is the first one that was recorded by a significant number of three-component digital seismographs in the county. Using a Bayesian multiple-event location algorithm, we have estimated the hypocenters of 30 earthquakes with M _L ≥1.5. The events occurred in two small regions of a few squared kilometers: one to the east of Érsekvadkert and the other at Iliny. The uncertainty of the epicenters is about 1.5–1.7 km in the E-W direction and 1.8–2.1 km in the N-S direction at the 95 % confidence level. The estimated event depths are confined to the upper 3 km of the crust. We have successfully estimated the full moment tensors of 4 M _w ≥3.6 earthquakes using a probabilistic waveform inversion procedure. The non-double-couple components of the retrieved moment tensor solutions are statistically insignificant. The negligible amount of the isotropic component implies the tectonic nature of the investigated events. All of the analyzed earthquakes have strike-slip mechanism with either right-lateral slip on an approximately N-S striking or left-lateral movement on a roughly E-W striking nodal plane. The orientations of the obtained focal mechanisms are in good agreement with the main stress pattern published for the epicentral region. Both the P and T principal axes are horizontal, and the P axis is oriented along a NE-SW direction.     

Crustal velocity structure of central Gansu Province from regional seismic waveform inversion using firework algorithm

The firework algorithm (FWA) is a novel swarm intelligence-based method recently proposed for the optimization of multi-parameter, nonlinear functions. Numerical waveform inversion experiments using a synthetic model show that the FWA performs well in both solution quality and efficiency. We apply the FWA in this study to crustal velocity structure inversion using regional seismic waveform data of central Gansu on the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau. Seismograms recorded from the moment magnitude (M _W) 5.4 Minxian earthquake enable obtaining an average crustal velocity model for this region. We initially carried out a series of FWA robustness tests in regional waveform inversion at the same earthquake and station positions across the study region, inverting two velocity structure models, with and without a low-velocity crustal layer; the accuracy of our average inversion results and their standard deviations reveal the advantages of the FWA for the inversion of regional seismic waveforms. We applied the FWA across our study area using three component waveform data recorded by nine broadband permanent seismic stations with epicentral distances ranging between 146 and 437 km. These inversion results show that the average thickness of the crust in this region is 46.75 km, while thicknesses of the sedimentary layer, and the upper, middle, and lower crust are 3.15, 15.69, 13.08, and 14.83 km, respectively. Results also show that the P-wave velocities of these layers and the upper mantle are 4.47, 6.07, 6.12, 6.87, and 8.18 km/s, respectively.     

Gravity variation before Kunlun mountain pass western <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>=8.1 earthquake

The relation between the gravity variation features and M _S=8.1 earthquake in Qinghai-Xizang monitoring area is analyzed preliminarily, by using spatial dynamic variation results of regional gravity field from absolute gravity and relative gravity observation in 1998 and 2000. The results show that: 1) M _S=8.1 earthquake in Kulun mountain pass western occurred in the gravity variation high gradient near gravity’s high negative variation; 2) The main tectonic deformation and energy accumulation before M _S=8.1 earthquake are distributed at south side of the epicenter; 3) The range of gravity’s high negative variation at east of the M _S=8.1 earthquake epicenter relatively coincides with that rupture region according to field geology investigation; 4) Gravity variation distribution in high negative value region is just consistent with the second shear strain’s high value region of strain field obtained from GPS observation.     

Moment tensor inversion and source rupture process of the September 27, 2003 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>=7.9 earthquake occurred in the border area of China,Russia and Mongolia

We conducted moment tensor inversion and studied source rupture process for M _S=7.9 earthquake occurred in the border area of China, Russia and Mongolia on September 27 2003, by using digital teleseismic P-wave seismograms recorded by long-period seismograph stations of the global seismic network. Considering the aftershock distribution and the tectonic settings around the epicentral area, we propose that the M _S=7.9 earthquake occurred on a fault plane with the strike of 127°, the dip of 79° and the rake of 171°. The rupture process inversion result of M _S=7.9 earthquake shows that the total rupture duration is about 37 s, the scalar moment tensor is M ₀=0.97×10²⁰ N·m. Rupture mainly occurred on the shallow area with 110 km long and 30 km wide, the location in which the rupture initiated is not where the main rupture took place, and the area with slip greater than 0.5 m basically lies within 35 km deep middle-crust under the earth surface. The maximum static slip is 3.6 m. There are two distinct areas with slip larger than 2.0 m. We noticed that when the rupture propagated towards northwest and closed to the area around the M _S=7.3 hypocenter, the slip decreased rapidly, which may indicate that the rupture process was stopped by barriers. The consistence of spatial distribution of slip on the fault plane with the distribution of aftershocks also supports that the rupture is a heterogeneous process owing to the presence of barriers.     

Disturbances in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 region critical frequency before the earthquake of September 11, 2008 off the coast of Hokkaido,Japan, and during a moderate magnetic storm based on data from ground-based vertical ionosphere sounding stations

Based on data from ground-based vertical sounding stations, the behaviors of the ionosphere F region before a strong M 6.8 earthquake off the coast of Hokkaido, Japan, and during the moderate magnetic storm before this earthquake are compared. It was found that the critical frequency of the ionosphere F region (foF2) above the Wakkanai ground-based ionosphere vertical sounding station, which was located in the preparation zone of this earthquake, suffered a long-term disturbance of slightly more than an hour nearly half a day before the earthquake. The magnitude of earthquake-induced disturbance is comparable to that caused by a magnetic storm.     

Features of Radiation and Propagation of Seismic Waves in the Northern Caucasus: Manifestations in Regional Coda

Based on the Anapa (ANN) seismic station records of ~40 earthquakes (M_W > 3.9) that occurred within ~300 km of the station since 2002 up to the present time, the source parameters and quality factor of the Earth’s crust (Q(f)) and upper mantle are estimated for the S-waves in the 1–8 Hz frequency band. The regional coda analysis techniques which allow separating the effects associated with seismic source (source effects) and with the propagation path of seismic waves (path effects) are employed. The Q-factor estimates are obtained in the form Q(f) = 90 × f 0.7 for the epicentral distances r < 120 km and in the form Q(f) = 90 × f1.0 for r > 120 km. The established Q(f) and source parameters are close to the estimates for Central Japan, which is probably due to the similar tectonic structure of the regions. The shapes of the source parameters are found to be independent of the magnitude of the earthquakes in the magnitude range 3.9–5.6; however, the radiation of the high-frequency components (f > 4–5 Hz) is enhanced with the depth of the source (down to h ~ 60 km). The estimates Q(f) of the quality factor determined from the records by the Sochi, Anapa, and Kislovodsk seismic stations allowed a more accurate determination of the seismic moments and magnitudes of the Caucasian earthquakes. The studies will be continued for obtaining the Q(f) estimates, geometrical spreading functions, and frequency-dependent amplification of seismic waves in the Earth’s crust in the other regions of the Northern Caucasus.     

Velocity structure of the lithosphere on the 2003 Mongolian-Baikal transect from <Emphasis Type="Italic">SV</Emphasis> waves

The S wave velocity distribution in the Earth’s crust and the first two hundred kilometers of the upper mantle is inferred from data of a seismological linear network including 18 broadband stations installed in the framework of the international teleseismic experiment carried out in 2003 in the south of Siberia and in Mongolia. Models were constructed by using P-to-S received function inversion beneath each station. Vertical cross sections of S wave velocities from the surface to depths of 65 and 270 km covering the entire 1000-km profile are constructed by the linear spline interpolation of individual velocity models. The vertical sections are also represented as anomalies relative to the standard velocity model. The most intense low velocity anomalies (from ?3 to ?6%) in the crust and upper mantle are identified beneath the Sayan, Khamar-Daban, and Khangai highlands and the Djida fold zone and agree both with other geophysical data and with the distribution of Late Cenozoic volcanic fields. The results of this work suggest that the activation of Mongolian-Siberian highlands is largely connected with uplift of the asthenosphere to the base of the crust.     

Sampling uncertainties and source <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> likelihood for the Gutenberg-Richter <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> value from the Aki-Utsu method

The Aki-Utsu method of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b value estimation is often misapplied so that estimations not using the G-R histogram are often meaningless because they are not based on adequate samples. We propose a method to estimate the likelihood Pr(b?b _m , N, M ₁, M ₂) that an observed b _m estimate, based on a sample of N magnitudes within an [M ₁????≤?ΔM/2,?M ₂?+?ΔM/2) range, where ΔM?=?0.1 is the usual rounding applied to magnitudes, is due to a “true” source b value, b, and use these likelihoods to estimate source b ranges corresponding to various confidence levels. As an example of application of the method, we estimate the b values before and after the occurrence of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in the Mexican subduction zone, and find a difference of 0.82 between them with 100% confidence that the b values are different.     

Regional Variations of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">ω</Emphasis>-upper Bound Magnitude of GIII Distribution in the Iranian Plateau

The Iranian Plateau does not appear to be a single crustal block, but an assemblage of zones comprising the Alborz—Azerbaijan, Zagros, Kopeh—Dagh, Makran, and Central and East Iran. The Gumbel’s III asymptotic distribution method (GIII) and maximum magnitude expected by Kijko—Sellevoll method is applied in order to check the potentiality of the each seismogenic zone in the Iranian Plateau for the future occurrence of maximum magnitude (M_max). For this purpose, a homogeneous and complete seismicity database of the instrumental period during 1900–2012 is used in 29 seismogenic zones of the examined region. The spatial mapping of hazard parameters (upper bound magnitude (ω), most probable earthquake magnitude in next 100 years (M₁₀₀) and maximum magnitude expected by maximum magnitude estimated by Kijko—Sellevoll method (max M_{K ? S}^max) reveals that Central and East Iran, Alborz and Azerbaijan, Kopeh—Dagh and SE Zagros are a dangerous place for the next occurrence of a large earthquake.     

Holocene activities of the Taigu fault zone,Shanxi Province,and their relations with the 1303 Hongdong <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis>=8 earthquake

The Taigu fault zone is one of the major 12 active boundary faults of the Shanxi fault-depression system, located on the eastern boundary of the Jinzhong basin. As the latest investigation indicated, the fault zone had dislocated gully terrace of the first order, forming fault-scarp in front of the loess mesa. It has been discovered in many places in ground surface and trenches that Holocene deposits were dislocated. The latest activity was the 1303 Hongdong earthquake M=8, the fault appeared as right-lateral strike-slip with normal faulting. During that earthquake, the Taigu fault together with the Mianshan western-side fault on the Lingshi upheaval and the Huoshan pediment fault on the eastern boundary of the Linfen basin was being active, forming a surface rupture belt of 160 km in length. Moreover, the Taigu fault were active in the mid-stage of Holocene and near 7 700 aB.P. From these we learnt that, in Shanxi fault-depression system, the run-through activity of two boundary faults of depression-basins might generate great earthquake with M=8.     

Coseismic Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the 2017 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis>7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake,and its relationship with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

On August 8, 2017, a M7.0 earthquake occurred in Jiuzhaigou County, Sichuan Province, China, resulting in significant casualties and property damage. Therefore, it is critical to identify the areas of potential aftershocks before reconstruction and re-settling people to avoid future disasters. Based on the elastic dislocation theory and a multi-layered lithospheric model, we calculate the Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the Wenchuan and Jiuzhaigou earthquakes, discuss the relationship between the M_w7.9 Wenchuan and M7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquakes, and analyze the influence of the aftershock distribution and stress changes on the major faults in this region caused by the Jiuzhaigou earthquake. The co- and post-seismic stress changes caused by the Wenchuan earthquake significantly increased the stress accumulation at the hypocenter of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake. Therefore, the occurrence of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake was probably stimulated by the Wenchuan earthquake. The aftershock distribution is well explained by the co-seismic stress changes of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake. The stress accumulation and corresponding seismic hazard on the Maqu-Heye segment of the East Kunlun fault and the northern extremity of the Huya fault has been further increased by the Jiuzhaigou earthquake.